mark: i'm mark halperin. john: and i'm john heilemann. "with all due respect" to democratic candidates debating here tonight, you can run, but you can't hide. ♪ baby, vegas.gas, good evening from the first democratic presidential debate. we are at the win hotel -- winn hotel here in sin city. although you could call it spin city. it's the spin room, the spinderdome. we will be your spin buddies for the next hour as the candidate

get ready to debate. national front rudder hillary clinton and college campus front runner bernie sanders. one a household name for two decades, closer to three. second, a socialist that makes a monster impression. what we make -- what we look for in that cage match? mark: bernie sanders can get away with mistakes. if he is himself and is not nervous and is able to talk about policy positions that he wants, he is almost a lock to be a winner tonight. john: it would be good to show some humor and optimism, it would be good to show us offside. mark: maybe tell a story about a real person. john: we have heard them speak many times. very strong stuff, but sometimes hectoring. she has biggest challenges -- has different challenges. mark: there will become a target when something that the moderatator or sanders says

that needs or to calibrate her response. i think how she calibrates coming back at sanders will tell the tale for a lot of how she is judged. john: one thing i will be looking at is the ways in which experience matters. she has done a lot of presidential debates, 25 debates and forms against obama. she was very good in those. she comes in with confidence. he has never done anything like this. mark: a raucous las vegas crowd. whose aside will be -- whose side will the crowd beyond? are the sanders people enough to be -- smart enough to be in the section? john: they have a little bit of the same challenge. she will tend to be detailed. doubt any democratic voters mind that hillary clinton is substantive about being president.

it is character stuff she has to get across. sanders has to get across the idea that he can get things done, that he can govern and get these policies to fruition. mark: it will be satisfying to see how much he smiles. she will use the word "listening" and the word "fighting" a lot more. there will be exchanges where neither of them really wants to win decisively. they want to get through it. john: i wonder if she will call him on the socialist thing. "are you really a socialist, or what does that mean?" mark: those of the front runners, the back runners are jim webb, lincoln chafee. john: they are not likely to be the scenario. mark: can you imagine if they ran against trump? super low energy. john: they are almost missing persons on the campaign trail. martin o'malley is a wildcard. this is the first time he will have the chance to actually stand to tell with these two people totally eclipsed him. clinton, one

unexpected, sanders. does he go negative or not? mark: i hate to keep going back to moderators, but do timekeeper give o'malley the same time as sanders and clinton, or give him roughly the same amount of time to talk as jim webb and lincoln chafee? does he fight his way in? he has something to say that is different. he is a younger guy. he has been a chief executive. he has things to say. he has been saying them on the campaign trail from. -- campaign trail for months. john: hillary clinton is still the dominant front runner, even with all the problems she has had. if i were martin o'malley, i try to figure out how to get a contrast going with bernie sanders, whether it's generational, executive -- i believe the same things, but i can get them done. somehow he has to displace sanders as the alternative. i'm interested in seeing how those interactions go rather than o'malley's interactions with clinton. mark: sanders is not super

specific programmatically. hillary clinton has put up specifics, but democrats have not figured out what it is about. o'malley, can heal the format of debate with short answers convince people that he has a plan that they find attractive? john: it's difficult to raise this. gary hardin is good at it at raising the generational issue. it's one of o'malley's strongest cards. do you, in a new millennium, with a rising craddock coalition, do you want a 70-year-old or a 75-year-old president at the head of your party? it's a good question. mark: i predict there will be limits to the debates of other candidates. we will see how jim webb and lincoln chafee do. john: those of the five candidates on the debate stage tonight. it will be obvious looking at that stage that a couple people are missing. that's right, larry lessing not invited. also more notably, note joe

biden. -- no joe biden. the vice president has been watching at home whether he decides he will run. do you think at this moment, given everything going on in the world, he may have waited too long? mark: i think the bar is higher for him to get in and launch successfully. there was a lot more momentum behind him a few weeks ago. then your times has always been influential in reflecting the conventional wisdom correctly in a piece that compared him to mirror cuomo. we had it in our focus groups. if you want to be president, why are you not in? if you are equal beginning in october, how can you be competing in iowa and new hampshire in february? he is going to have to change scenarios and convince people he didn't dither. reported thatirst there was thinking in his world about pushing the deadline from october to november -- the thinking around him among the people advising him was, let's wait, hillary is in a freefall. this freefall is only going to

continue. let's wait until after this debate. let's wait specifically until after the benghazi hearings. when the biggest changes is that no one has remarked the extent to which the kevin mccarthy hugely negative effect on a joe biden. what was a disaster looks increasingly like triumph. that changes biden's calculations in terms of whether the nomination will come to him. mark: cnn made a show about having the extra programs on standby. the democrats i talked to are not thirsting for it, they are not desperate to have him in this race. john: it's funny that cnn and others talk about, is biden going to come in the last minute? you and i know what kind of they -- what kind of prep they put biden through. mark: he is not the king of ad

hoc-ery. he's dealing with a family situation. i am not criticizing for this. but he has left himself a steeper climb then he had a few weeks ago. john: the longer you wait, it changes your calculus. mark: debates are fun to watch, and fund to cover, but they can also be kind of a mess. john, i think you know what i'm talking about. there is controversy over the credit party in this debate. here's the vice chairman of the dnc on cnn, one of several dncrviews challenging the chairwoman, debbie wasserman schultz over her claim that she widely consulted with dnc before she decided to limit the debate process to 6 and only six. >> the chairwoman has claimed a month ago that she had spoken with the communicated and consulted with officers of the dnc about her decision to limit debate to 6 and to put this retribution policy in place,

this exclusivity clause. that never occurred. i speak for myself that i did not find out about her decision until after the fact. there was no consultation and no communication. that exclusivity clause means not only are there six official debates, but if you purchase painted in unofficial ones, you cannot be and the official one. tell everybody about the reporting you have on bloomberg politics.com about this fight within the democratic party, particularly a lot of ire directed at feature women. john: that story of mine will be up shortly, as soon as i finish the show. the number of important things. one is that on this particular dispute, chelsea gabbard versus debbie wasserman schultz, on all the reporting i have done, chelsea gabbard is speaking the truth. debbie wasserman schultz did not consult anybody apart from some advisors. she did not to talk to any of the vice chairs. many of them are furious-- and what the outcome is,

both. is no other conclusion you can reach is that she did that to protect hillary clinton. john: when there was a proposal early taken to the campaign that they might do eight debates, the clinton campaign was the only one that pushed back, saying they wanted fewer. mark: if they say they want 6, which is just enough, and all five people on the stage to keep her from facing off against a smaller group. john: among those dnc chairs, some of whom are vocally outspokenly critical, like chelsea gabbard, and those who are not, who are still sitting on their anger about this -- what they see more problematic than the 6 is that only 4 are taking before the first vote in iowa. data regard that as a first 6. -- they don't even regarded as a first 6. it's a sham of a mockery. mark: debbie wasserman schultz has done a lot of interviews today. john: she has equivocated all

over the place. mark: you know what job -- do you know what that job involves? john: process. mark: process. john: we did that might on the bell, i like that. jeb bush unveiled a health care plan designed to repeal and replace obamacare. it would offer income tax credits for catastrophic grantsge and give states to finance care for americans. mark: this is when the first details, and few others. john: the second has to do with carly fiorini. --fiorina. she has raised $6 million in the third quarter. that is not only hard money, but more hard money than current phenom marco rubio raised in the same quarter. mark: impressed she was able to build reported that quickly off the strong debate performance. let's see how she spends it and keeps it going. no doubt that's a significant

development. john: you can't say marco rubio is playing a hot hand without saying that carly fiorina too is playing a hot hand. we are just getting started. we haven't got a -- we have got a huge the biggest lineup in over an hour. those with the greenbacks, maybe even some blackjack -- double down! we will be right back. ♪

john: what are the three things you're looking for in the democratic the base? go. >> wit, insight, and wisdom. >> i'm interested to see if o'malley will hit clinton. >> does bernie sanders-- no offense to hair challenged people. john: that was a piece of art on the road democratic experts

focus group leading up to this biggest debate. it was like "the hangover," except with no tiger. we are joined by our colleague as well as the nostradamus of nevada politics, john ralston. good to see both of you. give us a sense, the caucus state matters a lot. give us a sense of the relative weaknesses of the sanders and clinton organizations. >> there is essentially no sanders organization. bernie sanders held his first organizational meeting in nevada. he has had not any presence here before that. hillary clinton has had an infrastructure set up for months. she hired all the people who help to beat her when obama was in the caucus in 2008, and people who helped her in that

caucus. she has latino leaders, latino voters obviously important here. she the only one with any organization. mark: what would you guess the floor and ceiling is on the size of electorate next year? what is the most that will turn up, what is the fewest? >> there isn't that much interest right now. it's going to be tough to tell. certainly not what it was when obama-- 30,000 i think? mark: might be lower. >> potentially lower. it's still october. we look at this in these silos by the day. by the time that comes around, there could be excitement. i'm expected to be lower than 2008. john: you spend most of your time in d.c., the capital of the u.s. there's a certain amount of chaos going on in the republican party. how much do you expect chaos that is going on in the other party to creep into the discussion happening on the comic epic debate stage tonight. >> it would be hillary clinton's

dream. everything costing she said would be a contrast to the 15 people currently in the racfe. -- in the race. i don't think it seeps in much tonight. what happens next week is when that goes for throttle, when hillary clinton starts testifying in the select committee on benghazi. that becomes front and center. if you get through tonight ok, and i get to that moment, that cavite turnaround moment for her because of the contrast. sense inon't get the talking to the representatives of the campaign that it tension city here. it seems much more relaxed than a normal debate. >> yeah, i think that is right. there is a recognition that they will need to, not attack one another, but make sure differences in policy are laid out. they are not probing major attack lines. it doesn't seem like everyone is nervous and expecting a knockout fight. what you said earlier is true -- hillary clinton doesn't want to make any mistakes tonight.

bernie sanders has to present himself as presidential, but he can still make a few mistakes. if sanders comes after her at all on not being consistent, on ppp or anything else, she has to so some kind of humor. -- she has to show some kind of humor. she has to be disarming. it was actually 120,000 turnout, and much bigger number. i think it will be much lower than that. do you think hillary clinton and tap on the keynote speakers tonight? >> there has been some polling and nevada that shows he is very weak across the country with minority voters. she has very smart people tapping into that. the culinary union is the key organizations for the latino vote. she has gone out of her way to appeal to them, after going after them in 2008 when they endorsed obama. mark: is this a firewall that is impregnable, or can the unions start to have second thoughts?

>> i don't think the membership or leadership of the culinary union is in love with hillary clinton, but she set up nevada to be a firewall with her organization. a long time ago she believed that she might have problems in new hampshire and wanted to make sure that she wanted nevada. john: i would ask you what you suspected after this event, that's martin o'malley, but we don't have time. thank you for being here. we will have more debate talk and more vegas after these words from our sponsors. ♪

♪ mark: who has more at stake in this debate? >> hillary because he is the front runner. >> it's the most difficult for her. >> every word that she utters is going to be instantly fact checked. >> the three guys are 1%. high-stakes indeed in las vegas, the most exciting thing

in the country, except l.a., new york, and chicago. also boston, boston is nice. but this is a great place. we are joined from our guest at washington. mr. president, thank you for joining us. are you a capitalist? >> i'm sorry? mark: are you a capitalist? [laughter] >> no, i'm a trade unionist, quite frankly. mark: so you reject the label capitalist for yourself, just like bernie sanders does? [laughter] augh that it'sa left a yes, or a laugh that ist's a no? >> it's a laugh because it's a silly question. mark: some people say his answer might be harmful to him.

what you think about that? >> i'm sorry, i'm having trouble hearing you. can you repeat that? mark: sure, do you think of bernie sanders saying that he's not a capitalist can be problematic for him politically? >> i'm sure in some segments it will. in other segments i am sure it won't. other people are more concerned about the issues that he's addressing and how he is addressing them. look, american workers and the american public are angry because they think politicians and leaders in this country are not listening to them. he has been listening to them and he is talking about what they want to hear. speaking to the issues i think is going to make for a good debate tonight. a great conversation about the economy. and it's going to get people a lot of support in the process. some monthsesident, ago you talked about how important it was for hillary clinton to eventually have a position on tpp, and that it would matter in terms of her

ability to court labor support. now that she has a position, where the political invocations of that position area? >> i think it's helpful to her to come out against tpp. she looked at it, as we have looked at it, and it doesn't meet the needs of the american economy, the country, or the american workers. it's a bad agreement and she came out against it. workers that identify with that are going to thank her for it. >> when you are deciding which candidate you are going to choose, how important is electability to you? >> here's the process we are using to get to that candidate, or candidates, perhaps. we have asked all our affiliated unions to go back to their entire membership, give them the facts on what each one of those candidates stand for, issue by issue. then have a genuine conversation and see what our membership has to say. then it will come forward. i think electability is what we make it.

if you start talking to the people's issues, things they want to hear, if they are convinced that you're going to rewrite the rules to the economy to help working families, they are not only going to give you your vote, they are going to give an active support. they can elect people that way. mark: you are a nonpartisan organization and have plenty of members who are democrats, some republican, some neither. if you were to appraise the republican field, which 1-2 candidates do you think are most in line with the house of labor? >> are most what? mark: most in line with of labor agenda with you and your members care about? candidates --of it has been difficult to find any of this candidates that really align with the best interests of working families. we invited to come to our executive council talk to us about issues. all of them declined except one,

my caulk of a. -- mike huckabee. he gave his position, some of which were in line with ours, most of which were not. mark: okay, thank you for joining us. we hope you enjoy the debate tonight. we enjoyed having you with us. and melinda, thank you for joining in. thank you, we will be back with more hedge bets after this. ♪

john: hey, mark. call a quick shot of las vegas boulevard? a striptease. speaking of jesus come here is what our roving democratic panel said on martin o'malley. >> give it your best shot because you are in extreme

jeopardy. >> distinguish yourself somehow, someway, between the two front-runners. >> start attacking the other candidates and drawing contest. nothing to lose. john: we will be right back.

john: secretary clinton, if she makes one ever, -- error, that will be a huge story. >> she is in a position to have a pretty good lead. >> she can't go into the debate with that mindset. has not done she as well as people hoped, it is the result of excessive caution. mark: mistake or no mistake, there was one big winner tonight, that is you. extra half hour for the debate and we begin in right now as democrats in las vegas get ready to carry each other apart or maybe play nice, who knows? we are here with former los angeles mayor and hillary clinton mak