tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg October 27, 2015 4:00pm-5:01pm EDT
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alix steel is off today. scarlet: u.s. stocks closing lower. the s&p's lighting for a second day, but remains on track for in tw.t monthly advance joe: the question is --"what'd you miss?" scarlet: the fed prepares to announce tomorrow if it is raising rates. joe: it won't. plus, apple earnings in just half an hour. will they be punished for being too big to grow? and twitterew ceo boot theo rea company. we're not really doing anything and stocks. global stocks are lower. oil prices are down. natural gas dipped below two
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dollars and made a huge comeback this afternoon. right now it is waiting. waiting for apple earnings. earnings,ng for apple the fed, gdp thursday, the unemployment index on friday. an exciting week. it's just the first couple of trading days that will be kind of boring. i want to dive into my terminal. we have the can's tumor sentiment number and it asks a bunch of questions to consumers and one ofconomy, the questions is do you proceed jobs to be plentiful or hard to get? the yellow line are the consumers who say they are hard to get and the white line is consumers who think they are plentiful. you can see more and more consumers have been saying whereful, to the point more people say they are plentiful than hard to get. if we zoom in, if i can do that -- scarlet: not cooperating today? joe: it's not cooperating.
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it doesn't matter. we see a little deterioration. it has declined a little bit lately. with these recent nonfarm payroll numbers -- it's a sunday labor market is maybe rolling over little bit. it could be noisy. it comes around. but with the jobs reports -- scarlet: it is remarkable how big the gap was. joe: oh, we have made a huge come back clearly. scarlet: i'm taking a look at one of our favorite news functions. it is the news trend track. this goes although it backed to 2010. do you see this real big spike right here? this was october 30 last year when the bank of japan governor -- to start ao a stimulus. everybody called it the halloween surprise. then when they began the expansionary program -- because of the halloween surprise lester, there is so much anticipation ahead of this next
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announcement, which will be thursday night in tokyo, friday night in new york. a lot of expectation that japan will join quantitative easing next. scarlet: you can see all of these charts and more on twitter. with us on apple and twitter's earnings, david kirkpatrick. thanks for joining us, david. david: nice to be here. going to bewe are talking about apple earnings for whole hour basically. what you looking for, and don't say the iphone number. david: i would save more impressive news from china. apple is becoming a chinese company, basically. the fact that they have doubled
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their estimates in china the past year is kind of incredible. i think they will continue to do extraordinarily well. i don't think the iphone is doing anything besides continuing to roar ahead. they probably won't tell us much about the watch, but if they did it will be a sorry story. scarlet: is apple a proxy for the aspirational chinese consumer, kind of like copper? david: i think that is a great point. it's amazing how many copycat smartphone makers there are in china that the chinese aspirational customers almost without question preferred the apple iphone. it is a much higher status product they are even then it is here. different shades of gold, really designed primarily for the chinese market where that sort of thing really matters to people. [indiscernible] david: it is the new red one that the guys like. scarlet: rose gold.
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that is what they are calling it. joe: you have that. david: i like it. this is not a very macho color. let's face it. but apple has been focused on iphone numbers. this is the first time they launched immediately in china. i think they will have good results as a consequence. mentioned we probably will not learn much about the apple watch, but the watches just one of multiple new areas apple would like to dominate in. payments is one area. tv is another. what is a good candidate for being a real significant driver of business? scarlet: -- david: sadly for them there is no competitor to the iphone for growth. the watch, no chance of that anytime soon. maybe over five years the watch might begin to replace the
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iphone, as the watch iterates and iterates and becomes more and more sadistically -- sophisticated, but other than that it's an iphone story, unfortunately. joe: what about payments? david: a lot of people think that is a big opportunity for them, but chase came out with its own comparable product just today. i don't think it's impossible that a lot of people could get into that business. i'm not as confident apple is going to dominate the payment business as others think it will. i do not think it has taken off as fast as people expected when it first launched. scarlet: why the reluctance? david: i don't think that people necessarily want to pay with their phone yet. do you find it that hard to pay with a credit card? i don't. it's a little bit marginally easier and if it were my watch -- i never have to get my phone out of my pocket because it's always in my hand, basically. probably because you are
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satisfied with the credit card. scarlet: you are happy with it. is the next great apple product going to have to appeal to the chinese consumer first and everybody else next? if china is going to be the most important market for apple, does that mean it goes after the chinese consumer? probably so. i had not thought about that. that is probably a place where we need to look to see what the next breakout apple product could possibly be. they are doing so well with the iphone, they'll really need another breakout product. as long as they can keep issuing a new iphone every year that is as good as what they have been building. they have $200 billion revenue on the year,t 20% that's unheard of. they are doing that on the strength of the iphone. that's extraordinary. joe: investors can be confident
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that as long as the iphone story continues to grow, they do not need another engine of growth? scarlet: it is a high -- david: it is a high bar to keep coming out with a new phone year after year and it is getting harder. but for the time being, they are doing brilliantly. scarlet: what about monetizing ancillary services? one analyst says that apple is valued as a hardware company when it shouldn't we. april look at terms of -- people look at what people are buying. he says they should look at it in terms of what apple customers are buying, and that would be services. you look at the life span of the product, you count how many devices are sold. he has come up with different metrics and said by that measure, apple is a lot more aluable and we are doing it disservice by looking at it as a hardware company. that iso some extent
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true. apple sucks you into its ecosystem and it's impossible to get out. it does not matter what device you use next, it has to be an apple device if you want easy data, to your music, your etc. they can charge more for the software because it is in the hardware container and the hardware container is very high margins. scarlet: is all of that captured in the evaluation right now? david: that's a question i'm probably not as capable of answering as the person you just spoke to. probably it is. it's a highly valued company. will future growth justify the position apple has now? i think it will. a way i say it is really more valuable company than the market is calling it right now?
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no, i'm not capable of saying that. hear what you have to say about their battle with google. apple recently allowed so you could have ad blocker on the iphone, which is another way to me cap, keep a crucial part of google's business. does apple have potential to double google and make them a last generation company? simplyidol think so because android is so much bigger than the iphone as a business globally. they really have a lock-in effect on the dominant cell phone platform. apple will succeed among the rich around the world and there are more and more rich. i don't think they will fundamentally cripple google at all. i don't see that as a risk. google is also pretty good at coming up with its own counter strategies and also keeping android very technologically sophisticated. today i was in a starbucks where they have these new and table
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chargers. you just put your phone down on top of. my friend had an android device. he put it down and it started charging. i had to put a silly ring, that the aptly do have there in the starbucks, and put that in my iphone. just got twitter results. just released. earnings per share, twitter beating the average analyst versuse, $.10 per share, five cents. that is an increase from last year where it reported one sent earnings-per-share. twitter reporting revenue of 560 million dollars, slightly higher than consensus as well. the number everyone focuses on for twitter is the must see active user. we have 320 million. this is just marginally higher than the second quarter. twitter not getting where it
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needs to be an terms of growth rate. joe: it looks like the stock is really volatile afterward -- after hours. now it is down 9%. people putting more emphasis on the disappointing monthly average users number as opposed to the tiny earnings-per-share beat. bounces like it will around. but the first blush investors looking at this, once again, not too thrilled with twitter right now. scarlet: in terms of the outlook for twitter, fourth quarter -- jack dorsey, his comeback as the ceo, forecasting a revenue of $710 million.o .he consensus was $741 million that is a big, big mess. twitter is still reporting a .oss, $132 million does this give you an indication that jack dorsey knows what the fix is for the company?
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don't, but imbers have that faith. it's too early to judge the new twitter under jack dorsey. i think he is putting in place fixes that will take a while to manifest in the market, but i'm absolutely confident that twitter is doing a lot of the right things, more of the right things now than they have done in a long time to build their business and to solve their fundamental product problem, which i think is the reason their user growth is not yet picked up. i do believe it will pick up. but it's easy to see why it hasn't. it's still too hard to use. which jack dorsey is the first one to say. ideas,all kinds of including doing moments, letting people google tweets. scarlet: we are still waiting for apple earnings. a deep dive into twitter and what you may have missed in this latest report, next. ♪
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scarlet: i am scarlet fu. "what'd you miss?" let's get to mark crumpton with your first word news. carter says the u.s. is preparing to step up the against islamic state militants. additional airstrikes are planned focusing on a city in .yria and ramadi in iraq the recall system for faulty tires is broken, u.s. regulators say, and leaves tire companies with no way to contact most tire
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owners. the national transit safety board says only 20% of tires are recalled. for the first time in two months, ben carson is ahead of donald trump in the republican presidential race. the retired new research and has 26% support. trump is second with 22%. the rest of the republican candidates are pulling in the single digits. first word news. scarlet, back over to you. scarlet: mark crumpton, think so much. twitter earnings just released. bloomberg editor at large cory johnson digging through the numbers. the number that struck out at joe and me was the monthly users, 320 million, which was a miss. is that driving the stock lower? cory: probably.
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i think the fourth quarter guidance is even more important. you look at the comparison with what they reported in the past and you can see that growth rate just slowing. they are having a hard time. and users, just for million in the quarter worldwide? if you look at the user growth rate, you can really see this. i use the sequential growth rate. . think it's appropriate you can see at 1.3%, that is the slowest user growth twitter has ever seen in all of the reported numbers going back before the idea. this is the slowest user growth they have seen on a sequential basis, and that's bad news when it comes to imagining a great big audience like facebook or somebody else might have. number the twitter user really just old news in the sense that all of this is pre-jack coming back basically. why not ignore all of this? cory: i do think it's old news.
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surely they would like to have a lot more users. andne time user growth accelerated user growth was part of the story there. but i really think what we are going to hear from twitter when happens,rence ll they really have to have a lot more data. but we are going to start to hear a lot of discussion about monetization of users. for every twitter user has accelerated. this is the greatest value that twitter has realized from the user base. i think you are going to hear twitter try to shift the conversation away from the actual users on the site to the growing value of the twitter users. and to the argument will go something like this. who is it you want to see on
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twitter who is not already there? you really want your grandma tweeting at you? i think that will be the story going forward. i think that will prove that with the monetization. there is a temptation to compare twitter to, say, instagram. you companies, advertisers think of these services as either/or? from theseyou hear guys, they're really thinking about people of the traditional media, who put broadcast in a separate category. and then there is social. slugfestthere is a between facebook, the granddaddy andhem all and instagram twitter and who knows what is coming next beyond that. ,hat i think the world media whatever it is, goes to efficacy and that is what twitter will use --use their data to to prove. i think that their numbers actually bode well for the top any. it's not good for the valuation,
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scarlet: we are just moments away from apple throw earnings in the focus will be the sales hast idevices which ramifications for the company in the industry as a whole. the mighty iphone blows away the other products like the mac, the pad at the bottom. it accounted for two thirds of sales, that blue line, last quarter. every new iteration of the
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iphone has triggered a flood of purchases, which you can see here at the peaks and then it comes down a little bit. my point was heaven before million units -- 74 million units last december quarter. then it gets harder to sustain growth rates. year-over-year shipments of the iphone are still double-digit percentages, 10%, but it is a sharp drop-off from 90% back in 2010. has been totegy preserve its brand and profit margins. it is not going to try to grab market share at all market levels like samsung, the goal line here and it's trying to avoid the low-end market that is dominated by chinese manufacturers. joe? we still have with us david kirkpatrick and also joining us, mark gurman. scarlet just ran through the iphone story.
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what do you think are the chances of clearing the bar of growing this huge, single or product? mark: sure. right now the iphone is a blessing and a curse. it gets so many sales, like scarlet said, more than 70 million sales in last year's holiday quarter. but many of the prices and the services they have come out with the past two years, the apple to an siri, the apple tv extent have been built around the iphone. the success of those products also depend on the excess of the iphone. it's very important for apple to continue to innovate on the iphone and to improve the products around it. in terms of apple pay, we talk about that because it is one of those various ancillary services that apple is rolling out to release its reliance on the -- reduces reliance on the iphone. it's not growing. what did they do want here?
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do anythingdid not wrong with apple pay. it just has not caught on. keeping your wallet in your pocket is something that you still do. people put in id's insurance cards, drivers license, cards to scan in and out of buildings. it is hard for the iphone to replace all of that. at some point, the nfc technology will improve so that will be possible. couple minutes within the big moment. less than four minutes. any thoughts come to mind that you will be looking for, david? at howyou have to look good they are in china. it is an amazing growth market for them on which they increasingly depend. that is something i'm going to be paying close attention to. scarlet: for me, in terms of the influence for apple on the market overall, we have some great numbers. four point 4% of the dow jones industrial average, eight .7% of
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the nasdaq. without apple's per dissipation, the overall market can only rise so much. joe: it's hard to imagine if we get a huge number one direction or another that the overall market could go another way and we know how many individuals and hedge funds still have huge apple positions. this is a big deal. scarlet: absolutely. david, one number you're looking for? iphone unit sales or margins? sales.iphone unit 48 point 4 million for the fourth quarter. that's what everyone is expecting. joe: mark, do you have a number you are curious? i think the iphone number is important. it has gone down from 2014 22015 from q3 to q3. not been athere is major update until next quarter -- joe: it's probably not going to be a very appealing number. mark andall right,
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scarlet: in scarlet fu -- i'm scarlet fu. "what'd you miss?" apple earnings up. in terms of revenue for this current quarter,'s 75 million -- 75 point $5 million. the consensus estimate is $77.1 billion. in terms of the number of macs sold, 71.1 million -- i'm still looking at iphone unit sales. i don't see that yet. gross margins, 39.9%. 48 .50hone unit,
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million. , a little ahead of expectations. the stock seems to be taking aftermarket.it in take a look at that. scarlet: the gross margin for the first quarter is going to be 39% to 40% versus the consensus of 39.8%. joe: now the stock is up. it had been down, now it is up, bouncing around as everybody tries to figure out what is going on. ipad number,the which mark berman said he would be paying attention to. consensus versus the -- numbers decelerating. we know last year at this time was a huge quarter for iphone sales. there was bound to be some room for slow down. joe: it looks like the forecast
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for next quarter might be shy of where analyst thought, between 7 7.5 billion -- the range is little low. again, it doesn't seem to be a potentially, and the stock is still appears to be up a little bit. scarlet: the other products category which includes apple the beatsle tv, and headphones -- for everything 3.e, all of the other stuff, 0 billion dollars. double is notorious for lowballing estimates. apple ist a sense that lowballing estimates for the first quarter? david: i don't know, but i think the earnings-per-share was impressive. scarlet: the iphone sales numbers were not. off the tiny bit
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projections. i'm not going to same thing about the next quarter. this company -- it is so easy to get caught up in with the day-to-day trading step, this is an astonishing historic company that it could be this big and still growing this fast and i would like to step back and take that bigger picture view. true.ery mark, are you seeing or hearing anything that stands out to you? the stock is roughly flat. it seems that investors are taking this mostly line. anything jumping out to you? mark: the iphone number is a little lower than expected given the increase in iphone sales that opening weekend. the ipad number is a lower than i was expecting. not a lot of analyst put out put outons -- analysts projections for the ipad. this should be a little worrisome. the tablet market. is also veryber
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interesting. i think we will see over the next two quarters or so it will increase a bit. time applefor a long had a reputation of extremely conservative guidance and everyone sort of new the number implied by that was higher. that ther to assume number might do better than that? mark: i don't think so. they spent a few minutes talking about earnings calls and they were focused on the trajectory between two numbers of guidance and the guidance, as you both said, would be in the mid 70 million range. they used to give one number and apple used to go past that by, you know, a few digits in the billions. i don't think that is the case anymore. i think we will start to see them hitting the higher end of the guidance numbers.
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what do you think are the chances apple can come out every a better and better iphone, which seems to be what they are increasingly dependent on? mark: i think it's very possible for the next three to five years that they continue the cycle. so thes a s cycle, phones had cool new features, but the same design as last year. i think there is room for improvement on the design. perhaps a new, flashy design, new input methods that will really excite people next year. i think what we have to look what will be 7s, that cool new thing in two years and four years time? what happens when they have to iterate on that? it's been very clear -- the fingerprints sensor, the four
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siri,h, video recording, voice control, new picture technologies years earlier? but what will be the next thing to differentiate from other funds in the market? android is growing strong. players in china and other parts of the developing world are going strong in those areas. how will they conquer that is another question scarlet: i'm glad you brought up the s cycle. that is the second iteration of the 6, and that tends to bring higher margins. the margin is slightly higher than the consensus estimate. it should go down even further in the coming quarter and the average selling price was higher than analysts were looking for. i did not realize that, but that makes a lot of sense. cyclein terms of the 7 and what is coming up, obviously they will be thinner, but what other technological advances
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would you expect in apple's future roadmap? mark: something that we have seen a lot of now is apple moving more components in-house. they started this five or six years ago with the ipad, bringing in acquisitions of chipmakers to build new a series chips. and they have been doing that for years now across all of the ios devices. now the apple tv. i think we will see more in-house development of technologies. they rely on samsung, toshiba, to makecomponent makers screens, screen glass covers, more camera lenses. i think we will see more of that, more in-house. i think that will be really big, watching who apple partners with in terms of how their bottom line is affected in also a good
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affect apple from margins because it will be cheaper over time. scarlet: for more on the financials and less on the products, i want to bring in bloomberg west anchor emily chang who just got off they call listening to apple's cfo. what have you learned? i was on the call with my colleague who covers apple for us. little bitumber, a like, guidance for revenue, you could say little bit like, sort of in line with what bloomberg .as gathering from its analysts i want to tell you what he said about the iphone specifically released said "we feel very good about our iphone business, which continues to grow in a number of places around the world. we doubled in china and many places around the world. we continue to see growth. if you look at china, the double.did it is a little bit lighter, but when it came to china's typically, we asked, are you
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seeing any signs of a broader economic slowdown given your exposure to the broader chinese economy, and he said, we have not seen any sign of any economic slowdown at any time in the quarter. we did get a little color on the apple watch. they did sell more sequentially. they are up sequentially. in terms of where they are selling the watch, he said, we left the june quarter with 700 points of sale around the world. we have exited september with almost 5000 locations around the world. we are continuing to see slowdown in ipad sales. ipads sold his quarter, below estimates of 10.2 billion -- 10.2 million. tales of been going down steadily year on year. replacement sales for ipads were probably longer than people were anticipating. people use the ipad longer an upgrade less frequently than
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people were expecting. there is also some level of cannibalization. he used that word, cannibalization, with the products in the portfolio. it is not something that worries us in any way, he said. he is talking about bigger iphones, and you can access information on all of these devices in a lot of different ways, but they continue to remain pleased with the ipad performance. i did get a last question about the new apple tv set-top box, on sale this week. --sked our our estimates the how optimistic you are about apple tv and how it will contribute to the holiday quarter? he said, we fully expect apple tv to contribute to our growth and we believe there's a lot of excitement in the market for the new right. we think we can really change the experience with the new product and we look forward to reporting a result of the end of next quarter. that is coming from apple's cfo maestri.street
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he did mention currency fluctuations couple times. the numbers would be even better if they were not facing currency headwinds around the world. he did make that point several different times throughout our conversation. emily chang, our bloomberg anchor who was listening in on a call with the apple cfo. it's interesting that the cfo mentioned cannibalization of products. he did not specify which, given that ipad numbers are light. does not register as a product anymore. does that mean the ipad will , and ipad will become a professional device like the ipad pro? david: the difference between plus and the ipad is increasingly small. i have an ipad that is four years old and i'm basically satisfied with it, so this idea
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that the upgrade cycle is longer makes perfect sense to me. there is another thing that apple needs to be focused on, too -- i don't like to talk about valuation. it's not my forte. i'm more of a tech guy. the revenue for earnings per share are up way more than the stock. that suggests to me he stock may still be lagging. joe: mark, we are giving you less thoughts on this quarter. what is a key take away you maybe watching going into the holiday quarter? sure, there is a silver iphone plusthe asp model. ipad numbers going down, that makes sense. like people are buying competing tablets or phones necessarily instead of an ipad. i think we will see a really big
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if we showed some color on how the ipad pro does. all right, mark almond, senior editor of "nine to five and our own david for budget. before we go to break, when a point out twitter shares are down 11% in after-hours trading. the monthly active users disappointing. the though earnings-per-share beat analyst estimates, the revenue forecast for this current quarter coming in like, disappointing a lot of investors. that a buy.l the stock is going to rally with jack dorsey, i promise. scarlet: we will have more on apple's results, next. ♪
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scarlet: i'm scarlet fu "what'd you miss?". "what'd you miss?"time for the bloomberg business flash. aid. to buy righte the merger could value at $10 billion. gilead topped analyst estimates. the company says the drug sales surged. they beat estimates of $2.88. revenue rose to $8.3 billion. that, too, was higher than what analysts anticipated. a quarterly loss for kkr, its first since 2011. the alternative asset manager reported a loss of three and $15 million or $.37 a share. that is compared to a profit of $419 million a year ago.
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your bloomberg business flash. as we have been reporting, apple earnings have been really stand bloomberg editor at large cory johnson has been looking through the numbers. he joins us from san francisco. joe: what stands out to you? cory: a lot of things. i like to look at these things in chart form to really get a sense of what is going on. the iphone number so important. the ipad, not so much. if you look of the revenue numbers, we are looking at a quarter in which everyone knew there was a new phone coming, , they still were 36% year-over-year. it is worth noting, when you look at the dependence on the iphone, even though everyone knew a new phone was coming -- who is going to run out and buy a phone when you know a new phone is coming -- 67% of the revenues came from the iphone. this is increasingly not the thee computer business, not
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ipad business, not the software business. this is the iphone business for a vast majority, well over two thirds, 67%, of the business's iphone revenue. that's importantly think about what this is an as is and what might possibly replace it when we talk about watches and cars and so on. is not seems the stock moving much after-hours. it is up 2%. obviously, great numbers, or solid, as you say, but it does not seem that there are too many surprises. anything come out that is, oh, that's kind of weird? cory: the gross margin is interesting. i really wonder what it meant. there is the newness of the cool thing, but then there is the old stuff, because the old stuff has a better margin. at the same time they are selling these six and the 6 p and they are selling the 5, those margins are terrific for them. this mice adjust that the older
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phones were selling, particularly in china. it's also interesting to see -- emily just mentioned the cfo said they more than doubled in china. the reliance on china for revenues was also interesting. we see that growing so much. just as i was saying this is an iphone company, one might start to make the case it is an iphone in china company, at least in terms of growth. we saw that pay off a little bit. maybe there was another product on the way, but i think maybe what it reflects is the terrific rows of the 6 plus. q1 and q2at in fiscal and china where that really took off for them. scarlet: corey -- i wonder if people are too quick to value -- right up the value of the americas for apple and too quick to assume that china will be this boom place for apple, because american sales were higher than anticipated. and be china sales, as you
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noted, came in a little bit lighter than anticipated. cory: one of the things that is curious -- it did not make a chart for you -- macintosh sales were up year-over-year, a present. that is number of units sold rid that is important, too. that is another thing cannibalized in the ipad sales. it is important to focus not on the americas and this is a growth story and it was once valued like a growth stock. that growth has come principally through adding geographies, with china kind of the big one, and maybe that part of the story is getting more challenging going forward. johnson, thank you so much. our bloomberg editor at large. cory johnson reporting from san francisco. now that we are done with apple and twitter we have moved on to -- joe: the fed. scarlet: the fed decision. we tell you what to expect, next. ♪
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scarlet: i am scarlet fu. be fed you miss?" will raise rates this year next? carl riccadonna is a strategist at liberty intelligence. joe: is the data confirming that the fed was right to wait in september? absolutely.rl: if they missed an opportunity, we would see that, and that is thethe case based on continuing weak numbers on the inflation front, weakening consumer confidence, more evidence of pain in the manufacturing sector. itrlet: in terms of what looks that next to make the
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decision, i know it is data dependent, but which will be more influential, cpi or employment numbers? is a lagging indicator. certainly be fed does not want to see a language, but what they will look at our more current indicators, especially payroll. not only is that a good concurrent metric of activity, but a major engine of economic growth is consumers. if the job growth is not there, the income growth will not be an consumer spending will not be. sentimentonsumers this morning -- it held during the volatility and it came back and it died? carl: i think may be delayed reaction. households are clearly registering increased pessimism or at least caution with respect to the economy. you saw it reflected in retail sales data, now you see it in the confidence numbers and i think what is at the core of it,
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jobs. if you look at the labor component of the survey, there was retrenchment. still at a decent level, but jobs plentiful, hard to get. backs little bit. that may be evidence of what is happening in the broader economy where businesses are not so pessimistic that they are laying an workers because that is expensive endeavor. but if they all become a little more cautious, then we have a big problem because the economy does not have very impressive forward momentum at this point. do you think the fed will take notice of what the ecb will do? carl: the fed is very sensitive to the dollar, which we discussed. the fed does not want to be the only game in town tightening rates when the rest of the world is easing, and that means it
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