mark: we will be watching closely. ♪ on the show tonight, it is all about the benjamin, specifically benjamin carson. he is now ahead of donald trump in four street iowa polls. today he bested the donald international all.

poll.an international what happened? ton: it was easy in his mind dismiss carson, but now he has lashed out at person. i think this increases the likelihood that trump, even though he might not think that carson is his most threatening fellow, he is going to go after carson tomorrow night on stage. mark: it will be interesting to see other national polls on this. he has moved up in some places, but trump still leads in most big surveys. go after carson, the other big question is does anybody else go after carson? then harder to attack than trump.

john: everyone has been in denial. , otherct that people candidates in the party, do not take ben carson seriously. they think he is a flash in the pain, they think it is ok for him to win iowa because iowa can be dismissed. and that his rise in the national polls is a phenomenon. abb right, maybe wrong, but i think most of them will just leave him alone. see, whether they can capitalize on getting more people to sign up because of the carson momentum, and fundraising. carson has been an extraordinary grassroots fundraising. most candidates can raise even more. since carson is reliant on donations, unlike trump, this could be a big moment if he could keep it up. john: the biggest problem for

all of these guys, and we will talk about this tomorrow, still 10 people up on the stage. i think there's going to be a lot of people still going of after jeb bush. i think many would like to kill him off. big one.has bagged a to get-class full fair on the cruise cruise. from small and big donors alike, while some donors have likened marco rubio to barack obama, perhaps it is ted cruz when it comes to money. my question to you, is because of that mix of strength was thai and local whether he is the strongest fundraiser? mark: i think he is. there are three ways to raise money. there are the hard dollars, $2700 at a time. there is grassroots raising

campaigns and there are super packs with multimillion dollar checks. ted cruz is keeping pace with everyone, and every one of those categories. and that is posted. bush has not been great at low dollars. carson has been good at low dollar, but super packs are not his big supporters. i think ted cruz is the third most likely nominee at this way. money is a part of that, but not the whole thing. john: there has been a lot of talk around the edges of our world about how ted cruz is running a more disciplined and strategically plausible campaign. well-financed campaign, more so than most people give credit to. i think all of that is true. as we have seen with jeb bush, the money does not matter if the message is not one that the voters want to buy. he still has a little more traction than jeb bush, but does not have very much traction. mark: he will get some big

ministerial endorsements and evangelical endorsements and iowa. i also see has a delegate strategy long-term. what a great story in the washington post about his fundraising pointed out he is doing really well with the leap. when he switches from grassroots to princeton harvard and what he can do well in a room. john: he is very obama and mike, that hebama used to say hated the donors, but it still works that room when he needed to review cannot say that about plausible iowa winners in the past. mark: but cruz has not had a great debate yet. john: speaking of jeb bush, he is buried in the polls and has been bludgeoned by the press. he needs a much needed boost in his performance tomorrow night. what better way to get everybody's predebate attention by releasing a plan.

it proposes scaling back medicare spending, increasing the retirement age, and benefits for people who retire early. my question for you is whether another policy proposal, and a rather wrote one at that, is really the cure for what ails jeb bush? mark: i applaud him for being specific on some things. but what he needs people to see his he is an exciting, fighting candidates. and a proposal i did before -- a day before debate, i do not give, but i do not think it matters. he needs to be a star in the debate. john: something we have seen over and over again in these crowded stage debates is that the moment is all that matters. i can understand the logic on paper. say,normal person would

you think you will have a moment of debate on stage on entitlement reform? probably not. bush,i think that jeb money, policy papers, it is all part of the mix. he has to figure out how to talk about things he really cares about. he cares about these entitlement issues, but -- john: even people who care about them find them boring. mark: he has to win over older voters. carson is doing well with women, trump is doing well with uneducated voters. i do not know if changing the channel of program is the best way to win over voters. john: he does not have traction with any particular block of voters. and this is not something that really appeals to anyone block of voters. they care about flashier things. will discussw we

who needs to win the debate. there is a budget deal on the horizon. it would raise the federal borrowing limit, no default. it would also decrease defense spending and cut some entitlement programs. there is a bunch of other stuff. the president got most of what he wanted. john boehner said the deal is the best possible, and he referred to his likely successor as speaker, paul ryan, with a little bit of farm imagery. >> iv to clear a month ago when i noticed i was leaving, that i wanted to do my best to clean the bar. i didn't want him to walk into a dirty barn full of you know what. i don't my best to try to clean up. i told my colleagues, there's not any reason why any number should vote against this.

situation that we're dealing with today, it is the best choice. hurtingnguage avoid myself by patting myself on the back. this was obvious that this was going to happen. vader was going to try to get rid of the big ticket must pass things. ryan was going to denounce the deal, which he has done. what are the implications, whether this passes or not going forward? love that man is so many ways. it looks like he was ready to cry just now in that press conference. fencea big deal in the that it helps republicans, even though they do not know it. they needed to keep themselves from shooting themselves in the foot or face again by shutting down the government, blowing of the debt ceiling, or hurting the economy. that would have been disastrous for the president until just --

presidential contenders. by taking the loaded got out of the hands of the party, he has done a huge favor. if this thing passes and holds it takes away a lot of the distractions. it does raise defense spending it does deal with losses. more from ourp, debate. ♪

john: our guest tonight is the president of emily's list. it is good to have you here on this set. , want to play a clip for you

part of which set off a little bit of a controversy in the democratic party. senator from a rural state, what i can tell secretary clinton is that all the shouting in the world is not going to do what i would hope all of us want , and that is keep guns out of the hands of people should not have those guns, and as this horrible violence that we all see. john: you watch this debate. do you think he was taking a shot at heller clinton are making a comment about the gun debate? >> it is a good question. i have to say that this is such an incredibly important issue to discuss. bit offendedlittle that he thought it was all about shouting when it is such an important issue. was it a shot at here, i did not

think so. there are women and men across this country who are incredibly upset about gun violence, and it is a major issue. felt across the board that he was taking those concerns very likely -- very lightly. john: secretary clinton had a different point of view about that comment. i have been told to stop shouting about ending gun violence i have not been shouting, but sometimes when a woman speaks out some people think it is shouting. john: she has made that comment several times in the last few days and apparently she took senator sanders comments as a personal slight against her. being justsed of trying to play the victim card? >> i absolutely don't. i think what she is saying is

often times when women stand up and really make their point clear, we have all known, at least the women watching today, have had experience when they were accused of shouting, when they were just talking seriously about issues. john: but in this context is referring to senator sanders. >> i think she is referring to reflect the full list is very adamant about this. and a lot of women who've been leading the eye on violence across the country. i do think that is disrespectful. mark: if you could wave a wand and change from the affordable care act to single-payer, would that be your preference? >> we need to keep moving forward. mark: which is a better system, if you do not have to worry about politics? >> i think we have a very strong system that has gotten more americans on health insurance. mark: which would you prefer? personally, i'm not a health

care expert. what expect in our congress and our government is to really look at all these issues. mark: you don't want single-payer? >> i want everyone to have access in the best way they can. mark: what is the scope of what emily's list will help hillary clinton in the nomination? is a movement of 3 million women and men who are very excited about this race. we're going to be behind her on the campaign trail. we will be doing events across the state. importantly, is how much money are you putting into this? we have a great partnership with priorities usa, where emily's list will be leading the way and talking to millennial women in particular. a $20 million project that we are focused on in 2016. mark: that just the nomination

fight? inwe're going to started early 2016, and go throughout. we're going to engage millennials and millennial woman in battleground states. john: hillary clinton is not the only woman running for president for you also have carly fiorina who would be a historic company had historic president. what you make of her campaign? >> said emily's list is we would for a republican woman, except the problem is with carly fiorina, and often with republican candidates, is they do not stay in it for women and families that is why we support hillary clinton and democratic women across the country. it is not just about being a woman. indo need more women leaders this country. it is about what you're going to do until your fighting for. john: you think she would be the republican who'd stand the best chance who would know the gender gap? >> we're looking at an entire

group of republican candidates running for president who have alienated women across the country. we are at very likely having republican nominee, whoever it is, who is going to be the most extreme we have ever seen on women's health care. the is going to increase gap. it is not about the gender, it is about the positions they are taking. mark: did you get hillary clinton a birthday present? >> we got a really nice card. lots of wonderful signatures from our members across the country. john: thank you. trump up, 10 donald actually really truly be the republican nominee? the definitive answer when we come back. ♪

our colleague rate is story on bloomberg.com that was called why donald trump could win the republican nomination. after the story was published the real donald trump tweeted about the story. arguably the biggest story. tell us about your thesis. the reasons why donald trump has been making so many waves and why when he is captured the heart of the republican party at this right. it is all about campaign finance. he is able to take a number of positions that reflect the popular side of the republican .arty on free trade he opposes the

tpp. on free trade he was to reduce overall levels in the long term. republican donors on the other side of all these things, there is significant gap between what the vase once and with the donors want. donald trump is exploiting that are a well. he is the only candidate who is the ability to do that given that he does not need their money. mark: he wants to show a tiny bit of mercy to some of those who are already here. >> debatable. [laughter] earlier in the show about ben carson. how much of a threat to donald trump is ben carson? john, i think he is a threat in iowa, certainly. there are a number holds the show him up. ben carson is a front runner in iowa. nationally we have only seen one poll that was in the margin of

error. i do not think he is the runner nationally. the evangelical contingent is very large. that is not a natural strength for donald trump the way it is for ben carson. time, if hehe same loses iowa, he remains strong in new hampshire and he is far ahead in south airline and nevada. losing iowa does not hurt his hopes. but he gives a narrative word trunk has been the winner all along, and all of a sudden he is not waiting. -- winning. mark: did you have a lot of followers added today? >> i have not checked. i try not to look at my mentions. mark: you quoted a strategist thinking that people -- saying people should stop

thinking that trump could not be nominated. are still a lot of them who think he cannot be nominated. i think the fact that he is been in the polls for a 100 days, people are starting to look beyond the denial stage. i do not think they are anywhere close to a point of accepting or embracing him if he is the nominee, but i think there has been a reality check that has happened of the last few weeks with just keeps going up and the nationally. john: if ben carson is not the biggest potential disrupter of the trunks the narrow, who is? is it ted cruz, or is it an establishment candidate? majorhink ted cruz is a threat for the reasons you guys just discussed, especially in iowa because he has the ability with evangelical christian voters at the same time i think the overall threat is marco

an interesting point that rubio may be the only person who can effectively reduce the gap between the establishment wing of the party and the conservative wing of the party. rubio has the persona and the attitude of a mainstream republican, but he is the voting record of a very ideologically conservative republican. he has the ability to bridge those signs i think he could be potentially the favorite to win the nomination. that is still a big yes he is not have his moment. the other question is when he want tomoment, people see if he the resources and organization to build office and keep it going. mark: thank you. the story is up right now on bloomberg politics are calm. when we come back, we predict at sports. ♪

john: tonight, the world series starts at kauffman stadium. the greatest game, the greatest event, the greatest moment. you are you know who i have, this is who i have. who do you have? mark: in this series, starting pitching versus relief pitching, i go with the team with the home field advantage kansas city and six or seven. mets starting rotation, all of that power is going to dominate this series. we're going to bring the world chancellor woodson -- world championship home. mark: who do you have in the debate tomorrow night? john: i'm less clear. nobody has the arm that the mets starting rotation has. i think it will be an important night as we discussed for ben

carson, jeb bush, and donald trump. and carson. we will be live from boulder, colorado. it used to the one hour because next week we go to one hour full-time. until tomorrow, sayonara. ♪

polishes up some better-than-expected quarterly results. will it be a happy apple holiday? i'm emily chang. this is bloomberg west. we'll all earnings with twitter share is taking a hit as user growth well in the third quarter. plus mobile magic from alibaba. the giant beach despite