alix: stocks closing higher after the fed hints it may move this year. treasuries tumbled and the dollar rallies. joe: but the question is "what'd you miss?" : we will take a closer look at the difficult choice the fed faces. joe: plus inside the heated debate over whether we need a rate hike this year, next year or not even at all. global m&a is up, the second highest in history, so will the m&a spirit collapse? scarlet: we begin with the markets. u.s. stocks took huge leg lower following the announcement from the federal reserve. it briefly turned negative before recovering. the dow at its highest in three months since late july.

extra narraten day, the fence apprising the markets, opening the door to september and you got the knee-jerk reaction in stocks. and you figure that the dollar rally and short-term rates rally, that is impressive. move the russell site big and that's where the risk was in those small-cap stocks. -- the dollarr took a big leg down and broke that 1/10 port level it had for so long. just how overbought is the dollar? got a liftnks because everyone is waiting for an interest rate increase. that u.s. noting shares of deutsche bank got a bump after the bank announced its financial target for 2020, which included suspending dividends. a lot of pension funds may have to dump deutsche bank. i want to point out a line

from the fed state -- whether it would be appropriate to raise realize itst will objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation. nextstood out because meeting -- it was not vague. it was opening up the possibility of a rate hike. there was a note out that said the fed hocked it up a bit. that is exactly what you saw in the markets. live intotake a deep my bloomberg terminal and look at the shanghai composite daily swing. , global financial instability was why they did not want to hike sooner rather than later, but look how much china has come down. you can see it has come down quite a bit from what we saw in

august. you can see how much it has come down and kind of calm the market. joe: it looks like a vix chart. just as steep as the vix chart. this is the two-year yield. that is certainly what you are seeing here. says it had appeared long and add to that the steady supply of investment grade issuance and he says the treasury market could break through some key levels and continue selling off. that means prices took a tumble. they fedof the thing talked about was wanting to see evidence of the fed's inflation. that has been the missing piece. pretty solid on the employment

front. they are only around 1.3% and there are questions about whether oil and energy are bleeding into it. but if there's one area where people think they are not getting their target, it is inflation. they will want to see evidence therefore that december meeting. scarlet: that is the one thing that is not going to cooperate right now. you can see all these charts and more at our twitter handle. alix: i want to bring in tobias levkovich -- i want to bring in torsten slok to looks at all things fed. what is jumping out at you? guest: there are definitely important changes that we should pay attention to. one is they no longer think global headwinds are as significant as they were two

months ago. it was clear in these of timber meeting that they worried a lot about china. the second thing is they talk about december rather than just saying we will maintain rates. promised anything but december is still in play. you can see on the screen, we had a huge jump and that's exactly what they wanted to achieve. joe: obviously the statement took people by surprise, the hawkishness of it, because u.s. data lately has not in impressive. a lot of people they get has been slowing down to some extent.

why do you think the week data did not them once the fed more? exactly as you say, the data has not been as strong as we would like to see. a are reminding us that even if we hike rates 25 basis points, we are far away from what anyone could call normal. rateu hike the fed funds by 25 basis points, it will have a negative impact on gdp. it's not so much the first rate hikes, it is massaging markets and getting them ready for eventual rate hikes. just gopro earnings crossing numbers. the consensus estimate was for train 9%. less than whaton the company anticipated.

public, when gopro when everyone was excited about it being a media company. maybe some reality coming back here. highflyingve these stocks that kind of go nowhere fast and they -- an economy that is slowing. what is the pass-through? if you look at the s&p 500, maybe about two thirds is from manufacturing. if you look at the u.s. economy overall, only about 15% is manufacturing. gdp and s&p 500 are two very different things. bit misleading because they would all be much more hurt not only by emerging markets, but a higher dollar. the data hasn't in terrible, but it hasn't been good -- hasn't been good.

the today's decision by fed, there is only one dissent. we had some dovish verbal dissents lately. saying we are not convinced we should move this year. what do you think this is janet yellen asserting her control and those concerns about the vicious have an over blown? i think they are mostly on the same page. we definitely here voices in managedections but they to get people together in the statement which was more hawkish . it gets back to they wanted to lift the probability of a rate hike because they want to keep the door open. if they close that door, it becomes difficult to hike.

what happens if the market gets whiplash? has the fed painted themselves into some kind of corner? i feel like every report i read is we don't have lose monetary policy. deutsche bank is saying something similar. absolutely. i think now they are saying we did our job. let's see what the employment cost is and see what the next month on payroll is saying. if the shock from china is fading and is coming back, then they will probably have come around and say things are not enough. for thep the door open data of being on track for what their forecast is suggesting. scarlet: i want to get your take on bank lending. it has been a steady trend 2014. would fed rate normalization cause it to rollover or would it

encourage banks to lend more? torsten: what is intriguing is given what we see in the earnings season, pc somewhat of a rollover, but then you ask why is the macro data still holding up very well? the latest data from october 15 shows we have not quite seen any slowdown, so you ask the question where is the slowdown the market is worried about mark the actual data being both consumer and the broader picture of the service sector, it is still solid. one missing these for the fed is inflation. either the number or expectations are going to trend back up. is there enough time to get more clarity? torsten: this is the real problem. the appreciating dollar has been holding inflation down and at some point, it started letting

out. basic fixes, when will they start to fade and is there the potential to see more downward draft or are we in and up or trend? one small footnote's core cpi is 1.9. so there's some discrepancy and you can spend some time thinking about why that is that it is clear what you are saying, that this is the main problem with the argument. if inflation continues to drift downward, they will have a problem hiking rates. coming up next, we will talk more about what it's going to take to lift inflation in the u.s. ♪

alix: i'm alix steel. "what'd you miss?" let's get to mark crumpton with first word news. mark: ending weeks of uncertainty and disarray, house republicans nominated paul ryan to succeed john baer as speaker. defeating vote, daniel webster of florida. iswe think the country headed in the wrong direction and we have an obligation here in the people's health to do the thise's business, to give country a better way forward, to give this country and alternative. mark: the entire house votes ryan's lamination on thursday. the republican candidates for president will gather tonight for their third debate but now there's volatility in an already chaotic race. ben carson is surging past donald trump in iowa. get bush is grasping for momentum. slower than expected fundraising has led him to/bending and

overhaul his campaign. we will bring you a one-hour preview live drum older, colorado on a special edition of "with all due respect" with mark halperin and john heilemann. officercarolina school caught on camera tossing and dragging a female student across the classroom floor has an fired. the officer has been the subject of racial violence and excessive force allegations. the justice department and if the eye are investigating. the atlantic storm season is winding down with no major hurricanes. it has been 10 years and a major storm hit the u.s.. its 2005, every hurricane that has formed in the atlantic has missed the united states. your first word news. scarlet: i want to bring in our guest, torsten slok. we were talking about this profit recession without an

economic recession and it comes sectionhow the economic is dominating the economy. with regardt bolden to oil prices and the strong dollar? torsten: this is an important issue. think of the shocks we're hit by in the economy -- that happens to the manufacturing's actor much higher than the service actor. that's why you see a divergence in services and manufacturing in terms of inflation and services inflation. same thing on the wage front. divergence, so it's a bit of a headache. the problems we have in the manufacturing sector and the things we here in the earnings season at the moment, are they big enough to drag down the services sector or candy manufacturing sector continue to linger? that's why they're keeping the door open and saying we will wait to see how the data

plays out. something else we have heard is more wage pressure on their profit margins. lower income groups are more optimistic than they have been since 2006. is that coming at the expense of middle income jobs much mark are they being pushed down to the lower income run? partly they are finding more jobs and there are more signs of wage pressure at the lower income groups for walmart and several other companies have announced that. finally, we see oil prices go down which is beneficial to lower income groups, so that's helping the optimism and helping the broader economy. hourly average earnings going to search? information the anywhere -- companies say they have a harder time finding good workers.

wage inflation everywhere you look except a major -- the measure of wage inflation. we have probably been a little bit too early talking about wage inflation even before it has shown up that the anecdotal evidence is coming around. the fed used to say when unemployment cuts through 6.5%, we are going to cut rates. now they are thinking about it but we are well below what the fed. the the inflection point. we are still waiting but we believe we will see more and more tight labor market. but it is not showing up in broad-based measures yet. alix: paypal earnings are crossing. scarlet: it is that beat on the bottom line with third-quarter adjusted earnings per share at 30% -- at $.30. revenue lighter than anticipated. for $2.28ere looking

billion. because i don't really have a context, it is the full-year net revenue up and the fx neutral on a non-gap and gap basis. so people are buying stuff. but another part of the picture is bank of america had a note out about job polarization. middle income jobs are getting totally washed out. that's why we are not seeing wade -- wage inflation trickle down. there is certainly evidence that middle income groups have taken jobs that a less than before the recession. interest rates have been low for six years and we're still waiting for the recovery to get stronger but it has been a week recovery and we have created a lot of jobs.

but you are right. a fair way of describing what the fed said today is they are giving a little more time. if we can create more jobs, that's great, and hopefully that will benefit everyone, but a are looking at it saying if we can just create more jobs, we will be moving in the right direction. alix: always a pleasure. torsten slok, chief economist at deutsche bank. scarlet: coming up, tobias levkovich will be joining us. go proshares trust wing in after-hours trading, down almost 13%. and this new young company has authorized a buyback of up to $300 million. ♪

alix: i'm alix steel. "what'd you miss?" is with us.vich we are looking at and a day in the market and we've seen a 10 of potential m&a coming through. what is to explain this resurgence we have seen? if you think about two different aspects, financing costs are starting to move higher. you can wait and not do a deal comes so that is one factor and we started to see some edging up . the second one is some people are frustrated with revenue growth. so i suspect that's the motivation but a number of deals aren't nearly as big as people think. there are some very large deals that grab our attention with how many deals are being done.

great charthave a on mega deals on the rise. when you see that increase in volume, what does that they where we are at the m&a cycle? tobias: i'm not an m&a banker and i don't deal with the customers on that basis but companies are telling us they actually want to start doing more deals. side is private equity the call to reduced club deals where they can get together and do these massive deals. that's kind of an indication that we were pretty choppy. joe: what do you make of what we saw today? stocks surging despite the hawkish statement? hawkish in the sense we saw the dollar shoot up.

scarlet: less dovish. think the fed can remove that global instability commentary which is the thing that shook markets if you think about it. the presser conference, everyone is going to look at it and say that's not part of the mandate of the fed. they say things are halfway decent out there. i'm not a fed watcher. i just listen to the fed governors for these last three or five months and there are things like we want to normalize interest rates. they almost believe the current rates are abnormal. is look backl you years andt 20, 30, 40 look at the utilization with the

unemployment rate. everything used to move in sync with fed funds and everything has improved but said lands haven't. they haven't moved in a normal pattern. alix: what would normal look like to the markets? our economists will look at about 75 aces weights. they don't have to do it aggressively. the vice chairman, stan fisher, has said things like the current and if it's are transitory. core cpi has a move that much but they have had to get behind that curve. i think most economists worry about that because it is a difficult these to fix. we think we are going to 2200. we have not changed our view even during that august and september shock to the market.

scarlet: we started this segment talking about how deals might be getting done because the deals -- the windows are going to close on high interest rates. will companies pull back on anything they are doing? tobias: i don't think so. confidence has been one of the biggest missing ingredients. feel that great about the world yet because they see problems in commodity centrist sectors. in canada last week, the prime minister lost because make me the economic steward. and's not a winning message i think you see that concern. e.m. has been disappointing and europe is better, but not great. scarlet: confidence is still not their area. we are speaking to tobias levkovich.

coming up, are industrials entering a recession? ♪ the only way to get better is to challenge yourself,

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i'm scarlet fu. "what'd you miss?" let's get to mark crumpton. mark: congress is raising questions about whether the $80 billion in spending increases will be completely offset by cuts and other revenue. earlier this afternoon house from republicans nominated hall ryan to be the next speaker. seeking prison sentence for dennis hastert as part of a plea deal in his hush money case. an indictment accused him of agreeing to played -- a ring to

pay $3.5 million to someone for hiding misconduct during a high school code -- during his time as a high school coach. a storm including remnants of hurricane patricia is expected to bring heavy rain and wind to the west coast. maine and new hampshire could see 10 foot high waves, causing minor flooding at high cap -- high tide in some cities. that is your first word news. back over to you. scarlet: let's get a quick recap of how u.s. markets closed. bonds fell, the dollar gained, banks lifted stocks, the dow jones industrial average is up, the s&p 500 ending at its best level since august as they opened the door to a december interest rate increase. that is certainly the impetus for the midday turnaround in stocks that we closed at session highs. a huge jump-- alix:

in the dollar, the ruffalo small caps. extraordinarily -- extraordinary in the context. i don't think that many people would have guessed to see such an equity rally. scarlet: more hawkish. just released that they are planning to spend dividends this year and next in order to improve returns. joining us now to discuss is erik schatzker. doesspending the dividend, that take capital raise off the table? that is what a lot of people are looking at when it comes to deutsche bank. erik: you have to assume that it does for the time being, otherwise deutsche bank would have said something in this statement about the capital. we will hear from the new ceo tomorrow, laying out how they plan to meet their new financial targets, which are very ambitious and also very painful.

just amount to scrapping the dividend, which hits shareholders. there are some huge cost cuts that they plan to affect by 2018, cutting risk-weighted assets, trying to improve their capital ratios and trying of improve returns to shareholders. it's what you want to see a bank doing, but they have so much wood to chop it's almost breathtaking. scarlet: certainly he has a huge task in front of him as he releases his new financial targets and deutsche bank will be reporting earnings tomorrow morning. thank you so much, erik schatzker, for covering that for us. tobias is still with us. you made a couple of calls in the last few weeks that caught my eye. one was in energy, the other was industrials. even though earnings expectations cap totally smashed, how do you reconcile that? they were listed separately. looking at value related criteria in the health food

service stocks, we do believe differently than most about which valuation metrics have been the triggers for stock price improvement, not which are cheap or expensive. i believe that i would leave that kind of subjective statement to another people. that is what was signaling the energy call. on industrials we've heard a lot of commentary about how the economy is terrible. the big retailer tells us that business is tough, you know they have lost share. industrials cutting latently other guidance when it was obvious that things like energy and money had secondary effects that they had not fully understood. this is more of an inventory correction. even durable goods orders have not plummeted like they have in previous recessions. every time i hear the world -- the word industrial recession, i cringe. joe: you have been watching credit availability at small businesses and how it compares to yields on junk bonds, which

have obviously gotten a lot of attention lately. what is going on there? >> the start off there on business loans was not showing any kind of distressed the way that junk bonds are. junk bonds are being highly affected by the energy components in the high-yield markets. i said look, we aren't seeing stress. they said it was just for big companies they could easily go to a bank. then the nfib data shows small business. the guy who runs the grocery store down the street, or the restaurant, are not having difficulty finding capital at a reasonable price level. in the past when they did, that is when we started entering recessionary conditions, when they could not afford to invest in their businesses. all of these ways to measure credit availability or money tightness, you're just saying that getting a loan from a bank for normal people has not deteriorated. for normal businesses.

i don't know what a normal person is, sometimes, but the idea that we will go out and buy a home or by credit cards, that's different with a return on capital versus cost on capital. cost of capital is affordable. if it goes up they cannot win the recession. going back to the junk bond yields, if they reflect stress in the energy companies, what are they leading indicators of? so many people will say that when they look at an asset class, they are looking at high-yield debt as an indicator. generally speaking it is the canary in the coal mine. the most leveraged companies, will there be contagion to other companies that are not as leveraged? that is your first place to look. the problem is the energy sector is 19% of the high-yield market and 7% of the s&p 500.

if you are trying to extrapolate distortions into a 7% market, i think you are manipulating the data without actually looking at an apples to apples comparison. you're looking: at 15 different factors, high yield being one of them. were00 almost all 16 flashing red for you. how many are flashing red for about five, is: the answer, of the 16. we actually run something for ourselves, our panic euphoria model, which has nine factors and. for eight weeks now we have been in a panic, which generates a 96% probability of a higher market a year out. joe: even with the huge comeback in the stocks ins the dark days of september, sentiment has not moved up very much? actually, not at all. it has gotten worse. part of them have been hiding

from what they feel like are the china plays, energy, industrials, materials, even macau, those are all ripped. in a certain respect they have been hiding out in areas like health care. and they have not catch -- capitulated on those positions yet? tobias: there have been short coverings, but i'm not convinced that they have capitulated on health care stocks. significantere differences between a bear market and a maturing bull market? scarlet: good question. tobias: there are. when the fed is providing liquidity in the midst of a recession and you are trying to get things out, that is the beginning of a bull market. when the fed is about taking some of that liquidity away, that's a maturing phase. doesn't mean it's over. in fact historically after the first fed rate hike, you are talking about an average two years before the market peaks. scarlet: does that historical

example still work when the fed might be behind the curve in raising interest rates? i have been asked that question many times and i've always said that i'm so happy i'm not making these decisions, because it is a tough one. you are trying to predict where things will be in two years or 18 months weary of you know, forecasting is always a difficult game. my gut feeling is that we are probably behind, but again, i'm not having to make the vote of if i'm wrong, what i enjoy a gill, face. you talked about industrials. what sector do you need to run from when the sector starts to normalize? tobias: you can even do that. people want that simple answer. unfortunately it depends over you are in an earnings trend. raising fed starts rates, move away from defenses and move towards a cyclical,

because you have got some real sort of economic growth parameters coming through. that's what i think happened today, the belief that the economy is on foreground then we thought one month ago when the fed did not move and we got scared. now we are saying we would rather have a better economy with .25% interest rates. what do we do now after spending so much money trying to get the economy going? i think it depends on where you are. if you're looking at areas like mining, which is still suffering from excess capacity, it's really hard to get there. alix: no matter how cheap the stocks might be. tobias: some might be cheap enough, but that is more of a self-help phenomenon then something that the economy can do for them. even this easy by this, sell that, everyone loves that, but if it was so easy will -- we would not need billionaires. alix: fair enough. all right, thank you so much, tobias levkovich, of city.

scarlet: coming up, a deeper look at the u.s. labor group as they hint at a possible rate increase. ♪

i'm scarlet fu. "what'd you miss?" time for look at the biggest business stories in the news right now. shares of go pro are tumbling in after-hours trading. the company posted revenue the trail analyst estimates. of coming in at $.25, shy estimates. revenue the quarter was just a over 400 million when analysts were looking at $300 million more. on top of that they announced a buyback of up to $300 million. buffalo wildlix:

wings, the restaurant chain is except -- expecting single digits earnings growth, down from 13% in july. shares are down 15%. and wings were crushing it, that's kind of a big deal. amgen posted third-quarter earnings that topped analyst estimates and are raising their forecast for the year. the increase in product sales was driven by higher prices and lower inventory levels. they have brought multiple new drugs to the u.s. market this year. that is your bloomberg business flash. as you been telling you, the fed made no move to raise interest rates but it did take steps to potentially hike in december. mike is with us from the roseville institute. mike, was the fed justified in increasing its hawkish rhetoric or at least stepping down on its

dovish rhetoric? mike: i see nothing that has change between right now and when they last talked when they first put on the idea that global changes out of china would cause them to perhaps go more dovish into the new year. i don't see any pickup in what we are looking at. there are increasing warning signs coming out of china. the job market has not picked up is essentially job growth where it was last year. i don't think that anything in the last month or two has pushed us in a dovish direction. the question is -- how well can yellen keep the coalition together going into december? there is a lot of fundamental disagreement about what's going on with wages and inflation and whether those historical patterns will continue. joe: you mentioned china. i want to go big picture for a second. what do you think about this debate that workers around the world will start seeing an

upward trend in paychecks as the global workforce population starts to shrink, the chinese workforce stops growing so much and the u.s. and western workers will be able to have more bargaining power? do you have a view on this debate? mike: it's nice to think so. in general workers get their demands when politics change. to the extent of that is true, that still a decade out. joe: something to help the fed hit its goals before december. mike: you can definitely look at the late 19 century when there was a longtime weather was productivity growth that was not translated into wages much later. on a long enough time frame of course they would be better off, but i'm a long enough time frame we will all be dead. the worker share of corporate income is down, has been falling. is there something to be said, though, for a new normal as we wind up seeing more growth with lower income wage earners in the

economy? corporate profits are robust in many different sectors. it's not just growth and low-wage employment. it is part of the slack in the economy. part of the slack in wages. we get you wage growth without corresponding inflation. people for no longer looking, who are discouraged, who would like to be working full-time. this issue is particularly interesting in that it translates into capital with urban capitalism being much higher as a result. it is one thing or you could see wage is going up while corporate profits come down and prices are not affected. essentially redistribution within the workplace. exactly the kind of thing you would imagine would happen as unemployment hit 5%. no it means that there is real necessary hawkishness in response to that. set aside, what kind of

policies could be put in place to help worker wages? what other policy measures would help? that's a good question. a lot of people are talking about minimum wage, particularly for a lot of the service industry. that is where a lot of part-time and precarious work that seems to be a new normal is going to hit substantial growth in the next few decades. there is talk about tightening up some of the monopoly stuff, particularly on health care incing, housing pricing particular, tight rental markets. that would have a real impact on wages without necessarily having to come from wages. there are a lot of other things, too. a lot of concern about short-term is him -- short-termism. there is this idea that the rate of return from shareholders is

far too high compared to what society as a whole would want and i think that that has a knockoff affect that once monetary policy and leads to less wages. the summit fiscal solutions. anything on the monetary side to can be done? larry summers did say that the next move is as likely to be a loosening is a tightening, but there is a lot of pressure, people from alan blinder to many others who are obviously pro full employment are talking get away fromo unconventional tools, raising interest rates in light of the next crisis that will eventually come. that's one of the pressures, i think, to lower them again later whenever there is the next recession. naive andat that is silly. i think that unconventional policies are the new normal for the next decade. aging populations, who returned a capital, we need to be looking further down the yield curve and

so on in order to have a new normal monetary policy. known -- thew, it new normal. thanks so much, mike konczal. the what did you miss about fed rate decision? we will explain after the break. ♪

joe: i'm joe weisenthal. "what'd you miss?" the next meeting for the fed is in december. to talko bring in matt about what you may have missed. what's the most interesting thing? matthew: they removed the line about global advisement restraining economic activity further in the u.s.. that was probably the biggest surprise today. that they saw that as a factor

in september and suddenly six weeks later that's no longer a factor. joe: it would not have seem obvious to me that the global health of the economy has gotten better in the last few weeks. the ecb did show some easing, china may have taken a few steps, but i don't know that any of that is unexpected. the markets have called down over the last six weeks, chinese stock stabilizing, the dollar coming down a little bit, that is all predicated on the eddie of that the fed was going all out a little bit. now that they are putting december back in play, we see that turn the other way. joe: something else that you are is the market pricing in and what is going to be the fed monetary policy three years from now. what is going on there? matthew: there was a big

reaction today. joe: steadily dropping. wherew: this chart showed the market thinks the fed is going over the next three years. and that's saying that they still expect a slow pace of tightening, not getting gray far. you think that they believe that the month of the first liftoff doesn't matter? the long-term hasn't changed but now they're talking about next month, giving an indication that they still want to go with this year. is the fed undermining itself? it's interesting, they keep saying that the entire path is important, but markets are already pricing such a lower path than even the most dovish that even mari on a lakota has a dovish look. i don't think they need to be too worried about that. you areething else looking at is interest-rate

volatility, what is going on here? you hear a lot about the fed being accused of having a communication problem that will harm their credibility, but we are seeing interest-rate volatility as of yesterday at the lowest level of the year so far, there's no real indication that they are doing a lot of damage. of those things that people just complain about and say rather than actual have a real problem? matthew: it kind of seems that way. joe: thank you. we will be right back. ♪

scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. "what'd you miss?" big news came today this afternoon just before the market closed when deutsche bank announced its 2020 financial

targets and within that said that they were going to suspend their dividends for this year and next year. some people saying that that takes the idea of capital raising off the table for now. the whole point is you are bleeding staff and workers how can you pay your workers? scarlet: always the dilemma for these mid-investment banks. alix: conical phillips, the key here for me is going to be looking at free flow. the expectation is that they will meet neutrality in 2017. so, what they doing to get to that target? down 129%, down by 38%. what it is.s free cash flow to keep. gdp headline, economists expect 1.6% growth for the third quarter, but you also want to look at the personal consumption component that is expected to robust 3.3% with

trade on the dollar a little bit. you want to look at all the numbers in there. scarlet: of course, core pc is what the fed looks ♪ (ee-e-e-oh-mum-oh-weh) (hush my darling...) (don't fear my darling...) (the lion sleeps tonight.) (hush my darling...) man snoring (don't fear my darling...) (the lion sleeps tonight.) woman snoring take the roar out of snore. yet another innovation only at a sleep number store.

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