.> i am mark halperin .> i am john heilemann ♪ happy world series game number two, gop debate number three. high, and i mount do mean high. we are checked to make sure our feed stays up for our entire show. donald trump was the man,

tonight sharing the lead with an carson. mark: the questions will be detailed and specific on the economy. if ben carson gives decent answers, people would think he knows a lot. the bar is so low. there is pressure on trial -- trump on how he goes after ben carson. this is the trait -- the day that trump should do well. nprid a recent interview on on the debt ceiling versus the debt. i thought he was dangerously in over his head. pasould commit a faux tonight. people think that ben

carson is stupid and ignorant. it was not evident in the interview. the guy asked the question three times in a row. not know thele did difference between the debt and the deficit. he is one of them. box: trump has a chance to cars and in a little bit. heard that he is going to want to school carson a little bit. we will see what the moderators do. if they try to make this a trump-carson the bank -- for: it is impossible donald trump not to go after someone he perceives is ahead of him. he's got to be able to resist. not: inside secret that i'm -- in the view of the

establishment, it will be marco b bush.maybe ted cruz, je rubio,or bush, cruise, what would represent a breakthrough moment tonight? john: each has different things they are trying to a kyle busch. the stakes are high for jeb bush. ted cruz is the one who has the easiest bar to clear. there we have been talking about how he is undervalued as a stock, most don't think that. if he had a big moment, he could bolt himself forward. cruz were to talk about the middle class, that is important. wants an overall commanding

-- every answer on the president, i'm ready. -- mustbio shows he show he can play with the big guys. he has not been dominating. i'm interested to see who else goes after bush. , bush is so far down on his luck, there may be other candidates who like trump and smell blood in the water and decide this is an opportunity for john kasich to go after him. trump might not be able to bush, i don't see your mommy and daddy in the audience tonight. what does bush do? trump bestne is bush. john: very difficult. that --s time for

gilligan's island. carly fiorina won the last debate. the question is how she would do tonight. rand paul did an interview with larry wilmore. he will be with us shortly. chris christie is apparently upset about his greenroom. let's listen to a part of this rant. >> i have about had it with these people. let me tell you want. we have one candidate who says we ought to abolish medicaid and medicare. have you ever heard of anything so crazy as that? telling people that we are going to abolish medicaid and medicare? we have one person who says we ought to have a 10% let tax to drive up this this is -- deficit

by trillions of dollars. why don't we have no taxes? a chicken in every pot on top of it. out: i know what a break moment would look like for the professor and marion, but for the rest of these? you see in john kasich, this is more tactical than pure frustration. there is no doubt he is frustrated. he is going to denounce what he sees as superficiality of the race. chris christie, rand paul, carly , mike huckabee, they need to dominate the floor. that acognized moderators will be unlikely to give them equal time. they have to fight their way in. john: i'm interested to see what happens with john kasich, because of the fact that his

situation seems to be deteriorating, not gaining ground in new hampshire. the other person is carly fiorina, who won the last debate . she has had a good time since then in the last month. in the polls, she went up and down. what would she do tonight for the encore? now, for something completely different. democrats. mark and i both had pieces in bloomberg.com. his was ill clinton getting involved in securing superdelegates for his wife. mine is all about the bernie sanders campaign and how it plans to take that woman down. that discussion provoked hillary clinton in new hampshire, where she said "we are all on the same team at the end of the election, republicans, democrats, or what ever else we might call ourselves. we are all americans."

does the sanders campaign have a plausible plan to come back? mark: i will be interested to see if he ups his game in the next debate. it's never going to be negative personal. it will be contrast on issues. whatever else is going on with hillary clinton, she is getting superdelegates, at its course to her total, it is still about iowa and new hampshire. mentions her now. he uses her name. still, you and i both know that on 10 issues he could contrast her and say i am more with the party than she is or she is now with me more than she ever was before. pepsi, issues driven, contrast advertising,

free media, go in on all that. if he is going to come back, he has to go all the way there. mark: brooklyn is not complacent. clinton -- bill clinton, not complacent. paulterview with rand coming up. you will wish our show was an hour every day. it will be on monday. we will be back in boulder, colorado live before the third republican debate after this. ♪

mark: in donald trump's view, rand paul should not be at this debate. he is here. a little earlier, i spoke with senator paul about the big show tonight and his energy level

going into it. how is your adrenaline level? >> we are trying to bring it up a notch. we are going to bring it all. mark: what did you achieve in the earlier debates? position, iorth a am concerned about our government because we are a community so much debt. i am the only fiscal conservative in the rest. most of the rest want to greatly expand military spending. that is part of the problem. you can't balance a budget and must you are willing to be consistent against new spending for military or domestic. the republican establishment made a deal with president obama to bust the budget caps on both. people on the left and right wanting more money. they are going to blow a hole in the deficit. it is wrong. why someyou understand

republicans, even fiscal conservatives, find a politically attractive? >> it is the reverse of the compromised you need. we borrow $1 million a minute. right and left should say, we need to reduce spending in each of them. they are compromising and increasing the spending for both of their sacred cows. that is what is bankrupting the country. mark: president paul would do it differently, but we have president obama and now -- obama now. 2011, the president said he won't negotiate with a gun to my head. they negotiated. they got the sequester. it's a military and messick spending, we have to hold the line, and then we abandon it. this package is an abandonment of the republican establishment of any kind conception of his responsibility. it is awful, rotten, and i will

filibuster. they are destroying the country. mark: would it make more sense to lead the debate and go back to washington dc? >> i am going back at 7:00 in the morning. until in't be any votes get back. i will be speaking on the senate floor tomorrow afternoon. mark: you don't have much of common with mr. trump at this point. he is now saying that he is better in iowa than the polls show. you and your supporters argue that the polls don't represent your support. >> not only is it inaccurate, it is irrelevant. your polling undecided voters. look at the polls. they are put out as science and math, three quarters are undecided. so it is how people are leaning in an undecided poll. if you come to january and tell me 90% are going to vote and have made a decision, i would be worried if this is where we were. these will fluctuate wildly.

i remember herman cain, leading at this point, didn't win a primary. rudy giuliani lead for five months and did not win a primary. 27 pointsinton was ahead of barack obama. polls can change quite a bit, particular it when your polling undecided people. mark: am i wrong to be surprised at how little money you have rates compared to other candidates? >> if you count total money, we have raised 20 million. i think we are the fifth. we are in the middle of the pack. we had $2 million cash on hand. we are very frugal. other campaigns are cutting back . we are reinforcing our staff at this point. we have a great deal of strength that has been under appreciated. mark: what are two issues that you would like to get to address tonight question mark. newhat i'm unwilling to add debt and i am a fiscal conservative. mark: thanks so much.

good luck tonight. get that adrenaline up. thanks to senator paul. we wish him and everyone else good luck tonight. would he think? john: he is the candidate who most under performed. he could have been a transformational candidate in terms of the electorate and reaching out to new voters. hasn't done that. we are just now seeing an uptick and i would. when you think about his prospects there? mark: he has a lot of confidence. we will be back after this word from our sponsors. ♪

>> what is the latest on ted cruz? is he in or out? i keep seeing reports about both. see what you can find out, please. what about bush?

you never know about this guy. you think we should look at who? carson? he's throwing the ball around lately pretty good. that is fine. the cruise, reggie bush, and carson palmer. keep an eye on those guys. i know i have a debate. i have to get this fantasy football thing right. goodbye. ♪ mark: the comedy stylings of marco rubio. tonight's debate on his favorite topic, football. he likes comedy and football. joining us now in boulder, colorado, josh green. talk about how you see the two front runners by numbers, trump and carson, tonight. >> let's start with the trump.

doese often does, as trump , it is clear that he realizes that he did not have a great second debate. he seems to feel that he needs to do better in this one. i will be interested to see what his style is, demeanor is, degree to which he inserts himself. mark: he didn't do much in the second debate. >> right. the degree that he decides that he needs to do something to take down ben carson. carson is a mystery. his demeanor never changes. mark: he never once fought his way into the discussion. >> doesn't try to, and seems to come out of them certainly not diminished, and as we are seeing enhanced. i assume he will continue to try to do what he does. notably when we saw him at

the end of last week, he was creating the idea of getting more time on stage. john: this is a business economics debate. is this not home field advantage for donald trump and carly fiorina. what should they do to take advantage of what should be a natural setting for them? >> i think carly fiorina will be sharp. she has to stand out the way she has in previous debates. her numbers have fallen a little bit. trump is a fascinating figure. the times he got quiet last debate are when the discussion turned the policy. i talked to his advisors and they said that this could be a problem for him. he is a developer. he does not think and talk about economic policy. we're not sure how well he knows his own tax plan. one of the big questions will be whether he can elbow his way into discussions and contribute anything. >> there is an interest in

question about carly fiorina. this should be an area of comfort for her, but if you look at what has been effective in two debates, it has not been this. mark: breaking news. the house just passed the budget compromise. it heads over to the us senate where it is expected to pastor that is a big development for every player in washington. >> let me stay on this point. one of the things about carly fiorina is that when she is question on her business record, she has been able to do hand waving and talk about things. the moderators are not capable of questioning her in a detailed way about her actual performance at hp? is she more at risk tonight talking with moderators who know more about business? >> i think it will not only come from the moderators, and i think

they will be well prepped, but i -- heruspect hurts opponents as well will be able to come after her. mark: donors are huge audience, right? a lot of these tenets -- candidates will live and die about what comes out of these debates. bush's donors are nervous. if jeb has a standout performance, it reassures this. they feelggles, will tempted to move to somebody like marco rubio, who seems to have more of a commanding presence and better shot at beating the establishment candidates. or there polls change is a conventional wisdom that congeals quickly at the end of the debate for the next couple of days, that will affect the view of the donors and what they decide to do.

john: you, dan, given everything you seen, is this not do or die, but how big is this for jeb bush? >> it is big. i grew do. not every event is do or die. otheris so much time that things can happen. there is no question that given everything he has been through, cutbacks in the campaign, there is tremendous focus on what kind of candidate he can be. can he personally step up? all of the criticism for all the problems the campaign was having have been aimed at jeb bush? mark: the outburst yesterday, is that genuine, or is it his strategist saying we need to do

something different? was johnst inclination weaver got to him, but i also ofnk that that is also a lot who john kasich is. he likes to call a halt to things or claim everybody is not doing it the right way. i think there is some simpatico therebetween john weaver and .ohn kasich john john: everyone talking about marco rubio, ted cruz, what do they have to a conversation i? a marco rubio has given strong performance, but he has seemed to be out of the cross hairs of donald trump or chris christie. now he is it. he is the beltway consensus. mark: you think he will hit rubio? >> i think he will.

bush has internalized the idea that he needs to make a mark. the way to do that is hit somebody. ted cruz, he has a strategy where he can hang back, does not have to worry about money, fantastic debater. i think he can fly by if he needs to. mark: thank you. enjoy the debates. the main event. to guests down, six more to go. we will roll the next paradigm right after this. ♪

john: we are live on bloomberg politics.com, on the tube twice a day. thank you for watching us. mark: not so fast, big boy.

we are on for another half hour tonight. carson campaign, team ted cruz, more just coming up here, a special our addition from boulder, colorado continues live right after this. ♪

it is the walking debt. we are joined by alan simpson. welcome. i want to ask you about the news of the day. you made some news today by >> i havejeb bush. known to use daddy and mommy since 1962.