tv Bloomberg Best Bloomberg November 1, 2015 1:00pm-2:01pm EST
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gift the best sleep of your life to your whole family. only at a sleep number store. right now save $500 on the veteran's day special edition mattress with sleepiq technology. know better sleep with sleep number. >> coming up, the central banks act and the markets react, from washington to brussels to beijing, it has been an intense week of focus on monetary policy. earning season hits high gear. some companies missed targets. get the stories beyond the numbers. controversy rocks valley and pharmaceuticals. a new casino opens in macau. plus, the most compelling digital video and telling charts from around the world in the last five days. this is "bloomberg best."
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david: welcome to "bloomberg best," a weekly review of the most important news coverage, analysis, information, and in-depth journalism from bloomberg television's global networks. central banks and monetary policy made headlines in the u.s., europe, and asia. >> i do believe that there is some evidence that the fed is getting increasingly nervous about being at zero for seven years. unemployment rate likely to grow. and yet we are still at emergency policy settings. that should make policy -- it is an extraordinary period.
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>> vice chairman fisher agrees that we are at emergency levels. >> yes, and is the big question -- what many said is they missed their oppotunity. the pieces were in place. i know we didn't have anybody else who is examining this very closely. >> michael mckee is in washington with a question. michael: in the boilerplate about when they are going to raise rates, they have been saying for months and months in determining how long to maintain
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their target range they will assess progress on inflation. in determining whether it would be appropriate to raise the target range in its next meeting. how much of a commitment to you see that being and how hard would it have been to get that into the statement? >> regardless of what the outcome is they will debate the issues on the merits. i obviously wasn't there. you have a lot of the same debates take place in this meeting that you did in the previous meeting. many have kept saying in 2015 and the meetings are all live meetings, there was a debate whether a press conference would matter or not. i think they are keeping it on the table. >> he would once again reemphasize you do not cover up the importance of the exchange rate.
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my first question would be the expansion of the qe policy. how much of that as a response to the ecb last week? by expanding our qe program and creating clarity. going another six months until next summer. that may be easier to understand. david: incredibly active over the last 12 months. they wonder why the central bank is being so aggressive. what is it about the fx channel that is causing concern in this week's economy that it is pushing the central bank to do more?
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>> if they were to depreciate quickly it would be harder to get inflation around 2%. given that inflation has been low for a while we need to get inflation up to 2%. what happens to the exchange eally matters. >> within this is an idea of pushing markets or telling the yield curve what to do. tell me what humility and new model building you have learned in the last couple of years. if the model is old, what is the new new for you and your bank? >> time will tell when things settle down what those models will look like. we have to use many different tools to get inflation up to 2%. >> we have been talking about china stimulus moves. the rate cuts were not the most interesting part of the announcement.
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>> it wasn't too much of a surprise. what is promising is the remove of the deposit rates. it should make a big difference. over to the plan of opening up capital markets in terms of expectations going forward, we are going through a easing environment. >> the rate cut is not the end of the story here. >> is the economy generating enough growth to create employment opportunity that will essentially be soaking up 10 million urban jobs? if it can i think it will be
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a rate we are comfortable with. if not they could do more. >> the stimulus comes as china's leaders gather in beijing to formulating plan for the nation. expect plenty of policy continuity as manufacturing and construction growth continue to slide. >> what we are looking for is a little more detail. for example, green industry. that is something moving up the agenda. still not quite clear on what the parties overall strategy is on this. that is the sort of area where we can look for more details. ♪
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david: welcome back. it has been a busy period for quarterly earnings. let's take a look at the companies in the spotlight this week. >> let's head out and bring in hans nichols, international correspondent in berlin. the guidance not great, either. 2015 sales in line with 2014 sales. what the jamaica the numbers this morning?
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>> i think the operating profit loss is bigger than analysts estimate. more of these numbers are going to be trickling through every w'sond on how big v challenges are going to be. the numbers are important. we should take note of that. what would be more important is the conference call later on today. that is when the new ceo will get on, answer some questions. they have already set aside in provision. $6.5 billion they still don't have a solid idea of what this is going to cost them and what their technical fixes will entail. the 1.8 and 1.6 of the decent engine. in terms of the sales figures in , some ways these have been bouncing around. not overly surprising. we basically got a good sense of where they are heading. sales are down a little bit. we are still waiting to see what the october numbers.
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in they lost a little bit of september market share. , about 1% in the european market. will see if that number continues to decline in october. one thing that wasn't affecting was sales of audi and porsche, those are two profit centers for the volkswagen group. >> ford's third-quarter or running sunna a role. net income more than doubled. they missed wall street estimates and the stock is falling. matt miller is speaking with the ford ceo in detroit. >> thank you for joining us. let me ask about the miss on the bottom line. your pretax profit was better than a lot of most analysts had forecast. is it just the tax rates that they did not calculate correctly? >> let's talk about the estimates. we blew through the revenue estimate on the top side. in terms of cash flow, we blew through that as well.
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on the operating pretax, we were spot on. there was a tax rate difference of one percentage point. we came in at 33%. the analysts were at 32%. that is the difference of the penny. we outperformed, and on operating pretax, we nailed it. >> you came in at $.45 eps. the shares or all 3% or 4% today. what do you think is driving the stock loss? is a bit of a game around did you beat or not. we actually met expectations with revenue stronger and cash flow stronger. our net income was $1.9 billion. up 129%. volume is up,, revenue is up. once we get pass the quality of the performance they delivered, the value will be recognized by
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the market. >> first of all, let's talk about earnings. you guys missed on eps. you're adding 2.3 million customers, what for the investors who want to see profit growth, what do you have to say about them? predict day-to-day stock prices. what we announced was one of the quarters,ete completely in line with what we want to do with the company. 1.1 million branded postpaid customers. 843,000 postpaid phone adds, which is as many as at&t lost. 18 basis points decline in turn -- churn, which is the biggest
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we have had. 42% increase year over year. of $411 million, normalized to $487 million, which was a tremendous result. both of which we anticipate will continue. i am really pleased with the overall results of the company. >> there are analysts who say this is the first disappointment from t-mobile in a while. >> analyst expectations isn't something -- i think these things will settle down. what we did is we actually increase the amount of growth that we have forecast for this year. we kept our guidance the same. our service revenue growth was 11% year over year. there is a short-term issue where people have misinterpreted last quarter's tax rate. now it has normalized. and one time commissioning costs.
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the net income and earnings per $.15, which we announced is directly in line , with what we expect to do and continue to do. as people settle in, i think they will understand they are good results. >> when you reported the numbers this morning it looks very disappointing until we got the surprise from samsung. >> which came a couple of minutes before the markets open. it dug deep into its pockets. not sure how much you are actually touching. but, yes, it is a $10 billion buyback. we do know details of the first round already. $3.5 billion. they will be bringing this back into the treasury and they will be canceling altogether. corley dividend -- starting next
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year. let's get those results we talked about. based on the exchange rates it billion, and net income of $4.6 billion, which i should note is less than half of what apple reported yesterday. many other things like mobile phones. >> like the world's biggest chipmaker there. they were able to hold on to their market share. it came in a little lower than last year. roughly about 23.8% if i , remember correctly. apple was over 11%. you have the iphone 6. the big one was falling.
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>> let's bring in bloomberg intelligence analyst, good for you to join us. what implications does this have on samsung's restructuring here? works for an in the while. >> i would say this comes as a huge surprise for investors. as you mentioned, the share buyback is huge. if you look at the share price response today, it came down slightly from the maximum 5% gain this morning. that 5% is enough to put the -- push the share price up today. the expectation -- some people also question the management. are you planning to merge? it is widely talked about. they keep saying no. the gesture is that they are doing this huge by back to boost up the share price. they may have something else in
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the pipeline. a lot of people are speculating that management wants to depress samsung electronics share price in order to make the inheritance of the share from the chairman to the next generation cheaper. they pay cheaper inheritance tax or they can have a better swap ratio. it seems they are telling the market that we are not there yet. to get optimistic about bp is perhaps too soon. the downstream continues to insulate the company by this price. >> we might see the margins come in a little bit. i would say that does well with trading oil. the key for me going forward is that the ceo bob dudley announced plans to make the
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company work at oil. $60he saying that we can defend our dividends, the key issue for him, at $60 in the years ahead. >> going forward, when you look at the earnings for the rest of the sector a huge week for big , oil. what does it mean based on the numbers this morning? , we have to cuts prepare for years at $50 to $60. if you cut the cost down to that level that will mean a lot of , possibility in the years ahead. look at oswald clint with an outperform on bp, that is a subtle shift by someone who is widely respected. why are southside analysts finally getting optimistic? is about cost-cutting or some form of revenue stability? >> i think the cost-cutting is key.
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oil has not got much further to fall, but next year we will see those cost cuts take effect. some analysts are saying this is the bottom of the earning cycle. it may not be the bottom of the oil cycle, but it is the bottom of the earning cycle. >> real simple here. this is inflation-adjusted commodities. this is the crv index a zillion years. here we go, breaking through new commodity lows, getting near that multi-decade trend. argue link oil into the other commodities? >> i think oil has the ability to suddenly fall low very quickly. it is hard to store and the issue is that winter might be if you do see some oversupply, there is nowhere left for the oil to go. it has the ability to crash quickly. natural gas is set to break through below two dollars.
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that's the first time since the financial crisis. that is huge for the american economy. >> that has been part of the issue. it has been almost an iphone 6 hangover. a lot of white knuckles going into this print. especially in terms of the december guidance. they proved there's a lot of gasoline in the tank on the six as. >> where is all the purchasing coming from? >> there are two major issues. you have an existing base of ios users that are probably not -- are probably upgrading their phones earlier than they were before. there was a restrictions in the u.s. restricting their ability to up raid. -- to upgrade. customers can get close to upgrading every year where they were unable to do that before. they are also taking share. this will create a new virtuous
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cycle. not only in this december quarter but going out until next , year. all these customers can then upgrade their phone. >> about one third -- what they are seeing is 30% of those for -- who are replacing their phones are coming from android phones. >> it really is about how much room there is. it is a huge runway. we get the 65% by the end of this year, and that is really the key. street has been a little too bearish on the growth prospects here. ♪
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valeant from a cynical's out this morning with the defense of its relationship. citroen research, which initially raise questions about valeant pharmaceutical accounting practices. >> to protect our shareholders we promptly coordinated with our outside regulatory counsel to make a request that the sec investigate citroen. our counsel has met to discuss the matter. >> have you been contacted by the sec? >> no, i have not. >> what is your response to what mr. pearson said? twofold, first thing is that over the past month, valeant from a cynical stock was down 35% based on some of the comments that came out of bernie sanders, follow-up articles by the new york times. my first two articles wished to
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-- which discussed price gouging and operations. the stock was down on valeant pharmaceutical earnings. it was last week the stock took another leg down where i started phildor and their undisclosed relationships. what is most unsettling is one key made analogy of yelling fire in a crowded theater. what i did as i walked into a theater, i smelled a lot of smoke, and i said, excuse me, there might be fire in this theater. there is a big difference between the two. it is three days later, investors had a chance to walk through the theater, see the theater owners response and they , actually decided to leave the theater. let's keep exactly what they said in context. >> andrew, i want to take you inside bloomberg terminal to
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show you how valeant pharmaceuticals traded during the market and after hours. the second red arrow was when the conference call begin and mr. pearson made the comment about you yelling fire in a movie theater. the conference call ended, and since then we have seen the stock reached its highs of the session, although it is off by more than three dollars. i wanted to get your reaction to some of the action the company has taken. what does that signal to you? >> value x has made a lot of money. him joining the board is like my mother saying my report was correct, what does that mean? he has been married to the company pretty much. it is irrelevant. relevant -- it is
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irrelevant. what about the action from analysts that concerns are over -- are overblown? disclosure shows a limited ability to channel stuff and farmers make of a relatively small percentage of overall sales. is that disclosure sufficient? >> the answer is twofold. first of all as for making a , small percentage of overall sales, the important part is what does a specialty pharmaceuticals represent to their organic growth. if you compare them to a johnson and johnson, they are still relatively expensive. the reason why they are given this premium is because of organic growth. fraud, for no accounting in my opinion -- notice what i said here -- in my opinion through the research of publicly available information, is not an -- if this is
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why do i say this? as much as mr. pearson has made me the poster child for someone shorting his stock, i have to say some of the best workout there was done this weekend. by john hampton. it is not andrew. it is nice and i feel flattered he has made me poster child. am i the one who laid off everyone at the bausch & lomb research and develop an department? there are reasons why the stock is here and it is not because of me. >> it is kind of like some hedge fund guys are going at each other. names we all know but it doesn't really matter. does it matter if there's a bigger story at play here? >> the short seller put out a report. his claims haven't necessarily
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been borne out quite honest. valiant has been a lot of things to refute them. what they did do is raise a whole lot of other questions about valiance, how they have relationships with some of these pharmacies to promote and distribute drugs in the united states. why they had not disclosed some finance interest that they had in them? how aggressive their practices are and are they pushing to our to inflate or distort the demand of the u.s. markets? there is still a lot of questions on their about exactly how they operate. >> valiant almost a poster child for m&a. does a challenge the model that valiant was developing for the rest of the industry? >> they are perhaps special cases because entire model is built on acquisitions. the whole deal is we do r&d and
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acquire. there are companies that have used similar models. i think the search and development, not research and development. find the drugs that have gone a long down the road. the rest of pharma doesn't necessarily follow that pattern. they look for a lot of m&a deals that happened. products in development or give access to keep for research and development. i don't think this will necessarily impact that particular trend. ♪ we live in a pick and choose world.
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>> business newsmakers go to bloomberg every week. here are some that was intriguing interviews from this week. >> september 29 we saw alibaba hit an all-time low. as far as when you look at equities in general do you think , we will see a shift? >> i think what you have been seeing last week with amazon and ,ith google and i think apple there is at scale play. the bigger is getting bigger and the smaller will get marginalized. alibaba is a very aggressive company. i like what they are doing in the states with their media play. they are making lots of good investments.
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they are doing media kind of deals. comcast had good numbers today. that is a good move. had him their cfo and create a new farm. -- a new investment arm. i think they will be very aggressive. >> when you say the big are getting bigger, it makes me think of uber list. many people piled into investor -- investing in lyft. they said if there evaluation is here, and lift is here, i have to give money to lift because the need to get closer. that is not always the case. if the bigger are going to get bigger in the smaller getting smaller. >> that is not the history of the internet. there seems to be a bigger some game-winner. social networking only has one big, big player. we will see of twitter can get into that group. facebook and google, google is certainly separating itself in dramatic fashion from yahoo! back in the day. so, yes, alibaba is the main player. amazon is the main player.
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you are seeing amazon was so much momentum, you see the opposite with wal-mart. think it has flipped. the new media has become the traditional, kind of however people will be doing their work. >> do you see yahoo! as relevant? they used to be so positive. is it too late for them? >> i do not think it is too late. i think it is a difficult transition for them. it is hard to monetize from an advertising standpoint when you are dispersed around the globe. they need to generate other revenue streams. they do not have a real subscription business. they are struggling on the e-commerce business. they have one revenue stream. that is advertising. the market does not value advertising kinds of revenues as much as they do e-commerce or other software.
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>> they came here and made some investments. some bats. they had some content related companies. the c alibaba making an amazon kind of moved to a content company? >> very much so. they did that in japan. they launched their own prime service. they had streaming video. if you are in the web service business and e-commerce business they have a big data platform. , you have a marketplace bringing buyers and sellers together. you may feel that you have an open field running to go after the opportunities. >> in terms of alibaba, do you see a massive amount of humans, human capital? the consumer in china that you would not be discouraged by the fact that we are seeing a slowdown in the overall economy? >> no, i think that if you get the big position quickly, they are doing a really good job. i would be buying them right now. >> we are proud of a proposition we're delivering.
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it probably has more non-gaming attractions than the rest of the resorts and hotels. in all of maccallum combined. at the same time, macau the -- the revenue would generate from gaming is always going to be much higher. therefore, for us it is imported -- important to follow in the footsteps of what the government once. at the same time, there is a point of differentiation. ultimately, casino gaming will be the financial engine. without that component, we would not be able to build these amazing, fantastic stuff. >> he mentioned that you built all the boxes but only got two -- 250 tables out of the 400 you wanted. what does that signal to you? >> given the annual growth rate, we are happy.
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there could be worse scenarios. >> how was the impact on your projection? >> there was a significant impact. in terms of the financial model we were looking at. at least two or three years ago. at the same time, we build for these properties for 20 years down the road. we're very confident that given what we are offering here, and the fact that it is so different, it'll be a success. i think the market will come back. there are some macro forces. they are not targeted specifically at the gaming industry. ultimately, our biggest customer bases china. china is going through its own challenges right now. we understand that. longer-term if you look at , macau, it is in the best year -- geographical location. >> how concerned are you that the refugee crisis will stifle moderate politicians? that politics in europe will
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become more extreme. >> the crisis is there, but i think that europe has hundreds of millions of people and it can accept hundreds of thousands of migrants. at one condition that we have a common policy and we don't leave the burden only to border countries. it is unbelievable. that we did not have until a -- now have a common european policy on migration. we are slowly building a new common policy. without this, the crisis will be ever and ever serious. >> how do you feel by the role played by angela merkel who is becoming the de facto europe -- europe's only leader. >> in the next three months, the migration flows passed from the central root of the mediterranean towards italy, towards the oriental root.
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turkey, greece, i do not think we have to blame turkey for this kind of flow. turkey can have a role contributing to the solution. but, the origin of the crisis is not turkey, it is the syrian crisis. >> you mentioned syria, we are seeing live pictures of this human tragedy in slovenia. minister, how concerned are you that the eu has never been this week. we have 70 divisions at heart is impossible to have an eu border force, let alone coming up with a common policy? >> we are concerned. we have to think about the fact that until the last month of april, there was no migration common policy. italy asked and convened a summit on migration at the beginning of may. after a tragedy in the mediterranean. since then, five months, we built some basis of common
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policy. the risk is that single countries are blaming their neighbors and everybody is saying that the border countries, italy, greece and tomorrow, whatever, should have the burden. i think that this is ridiculous. measuredit is such a problem that should be faced by the entire european union and that some positive steps are there. we need a little bit more engagement. ♪
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brosnan and his final outing is bond and i know the date were 20 brand partners. daniel craig and they pad that down, it is more real and more authentic to his interpretation. in certain bond movies there have been very obvious placements. in "casino royale," eva green character says to james bond she is trying to size them up and she says rolex. >> that is a bit too far. her reaction is ready audience went ooh. that is a product placement does not work. >> why should i trust you? >> on your best chance of staying alive. with "spectre", prior to release there has been a lot of websites going crazy about what to james bond is wearing, what he will be
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drinking come all of this. belvedere produced a limited-edition bottle where they changed the logo to the mi5 office. they are doing and advertising campaign. wherever bond goes come he represents and personifies their brand. that is why you have heineken, that is what you have gillette, or tom ford. really want to get behind premium brands. really wanting to get behind someone who represents and personifies who they are and who they are talking to. >> excellent choice. >> how long have people been trying to make our stride themselves? almost as long as there have been cars. this article about a remote-controlled cars from 1955.
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in the 50's they try to really create a really autonomous vehicle gets going. in 1956 gm created a concept car called the firebird two. it looks almost like a fighter jet. it's controlled by a magnetic strip embedded in the road. in 1958 gm teamed up with rca to create a driverless car that used radio frequency. the cars were supposed to be commercialized by 1975. but that did not happen. fast or to carnegie mellon 1986. creates a driverless chevy band -- van with computers and doesn't work so well. gm sees potential and teams up with the university to explore driverless technology. in 1998 uggla was founded. public.ogle goes in 2005 the grand challenges held worth $2 million to a team that can make a driverless car. thrun later goes on to found
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their secretive tech research program, google x. the 2007 challenge the man and his team placed second. in 2008 the financial crisis hits. gm cuts jobs and teams up with segway and unveils an autonomous concept vehicle built with the same technology built in the 2007 car. google with cash expands the driverless car program in the race between google and gm kicks into high gear. in 2011 they create an earlier -- a new version of their yearly or model. in 2012, google unveils a fleet retrofitted with a driverless rate. 23 google cars drive themselves in california to texas. 2014, goggle expanded to gm territory. the building car without steering wheel or pedals. people seem to like it.
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in 2015, gm has a super cruise feature that drives itself in highway traffic. they plan to start selling the flagship sedan to the public in 2017. maybe. meanwhile, google says they have already driven over one million miles. but, the vehicles have not been tested in heavy rain or snow and they sometimes cannot the same as between between -- between trash and people despite that, . despite that, we could see their car available to the masses by 2017. >> speak recognition, deep learning, artificial intelligence, all part of the work done here in bai usa. the silicon valley arm of the chinese internet search giant. >> we are in a unique position to have the best ideas from silicon valley and beijing. and we can put them together. to create things that no one else is seen yet. meet the mastermind behind google brain. one of the most ambitious artificial intelligence programs
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to come out of google x. he made a big splash in 2014 when he was recruited to run the silicon valley ai lab, less than five miles away from google's headquarters. >> i'm excited about the potential to translate ai to health care. i think there is a huge gap between what we can do and what we have accomplished so far. >> what's next is one of the first projects to emerge. a sort of robocop meets web in the. -- web m.d.. >> the system has a lot of intelligence built into it. first of all, it has speech parts. people can talk to the app. they can describe their symptoms. then the system will use deep speech to do voice recognition, then they will decide if they
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can meet or need to see a doctor. >> this is part of the ceos and grand vision for the future in online to off-line services, or letting users connect with nearby businesses through their smart phone. it is a vision he believes and so deeply, he is willing to bet billions of dollars, risk investor relations, and sacrifice profit today. all without a money that guarantee on future growth. in total, he has set aside $3.2 billion over the next three years for online-to-off-line research. that number is only expected to grow. >> we think if we can get speak recognition to a level where it is totally natural, or it is more than 90% accuracy, that it has more like 99% accuracy that would be transformative. , ♪
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♪ david: as we wrap up, let's take a look at some of the charts that tell the story of the week in business. >> it is hard to imagine to the business without money. yet for thousands of years people got along without money. in primitive days, living was simple and each family used what is needed. >> i'm the cohost of what you missed, we just got the fomc announcement. as expected of the rays did not -- the fed did not raise rates. everybody knew that would happen. it was interesting, because they seemed to open the door for a hike in they removed a line december. about global growth concerns. they even talked about what it would take to get the hike in december. now, there is a lot of tension. will they hike rates at the december meeting? you can really
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see that showing up. this is a one-month chart of yield. these short-term's interest rates are highly sensitive to set policy because the fed controls short-term interest rates. as you can see, there is a big surge today. so, we are seeing all of the reactions to the dollar is higher. stocks slipped a little bit. you can see the instant reaction to the fed. you can see them anticipating higher rates than what people thought. some of the u.s. economic data lately has been a little bit mediocre. kind of soft. what we are seeing is a reason to delay a hike until sometime next year. it looks like there is still a possibility. you see in the reaction here. >> let's get to the charts. this week, it was all about the fed. the fomc took no action but hinted at the possibility of hiking rates at its next meeting in december. putting 2015 back and play.
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look at the expectations before and after the meeting. a dramatic change. take a look at shares. china announced a change to the one child policy. now that all couples can have two children it jumped in share prices. deutsche bank germany's biggest , banks found stocks planned to revive profits fail to impress investors. that is the week it was. now for the month it was. a monster month for october. poised to close out for the biggest month of gains since 2009. ♪
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