" to: "with all due respect twitter, we heart you. ♪ on our off-off election-year show tonight, synchronize watches now. about a year from this first tuesday of november, we'll be picking our next resident. will it be hillary, donald trump, or maybe marco rubio? anything that goes up must come under the microscope.

as he is criticized for his senate attendance record, today, marco rubio delayed and scaled back a fund-raising trip to manhattan so he could cast a procedural vote in washington on agriculture bill related to water quality. that is a move that could play well in the farmlands of iowa but also means fewer dollars for a candidate who did not post a very impressive cash call last quarter. everyone is focused on how he is doing in state and national olds. a little better, to be sure, but what other factors will determine if rubio will continue his right to rise? mark: the money thing is obviously huge. people will follow paul singer's lead among the donor class on the eastern seaboard? as you point out, rubio was topped up a lot, and it was talked of a fair amount coming out of that debate, but the dollar did not follow. if he is going to fight off some

of these big boys who still have a lot of money and a super pac, he's going to need some don't. mark: -- he's going to need some dough. mark: singer was the big get, but so far, no bush defections to rubio, and not a lot of new people except for singer signing up, and rubio, so far, despite doing well in the immediate aftermath of the debate -- his people do not expect him to be a great grassroots fundraiser. raising those small dollars like carson and sanders have -- that's a big deal. i do not see why he isn't. away all the various connotations of saying he's the obama of 2016. he's the generational candidate, the one who talks about the sharing economy, uber. why is that die not a great internet fundraiser? done he has not particularly well in the $2700 checks. they are saying he's going to choose between what he needs to

go back for, if it's important, but clearly, he is feeling at least some heat about this, and he cannot control mitch mcconnell. this could create problems as he tries to be both a senator who does not miss votes and a candidate. thing, looking at crowd size is often overstated as a metric, but donald trump can fill up a stadium or didn't carson gets large crowds who come out to see him everywhere. who has some kind of spark in the establishment bracket? are we going to see that? the thing is, he's got to get the virtuous cycle going. pull levers go up, better coverage, more money coming in, and he does not have the virtuous cycle going yet. john: now, we're going to talk about and un-virtuous part of the cycle.

donald trump has apparently been in writing ale campaign but. at a celebration of trump tossed " crippledmp's tome, america: how to make america great again," he talked about the affirmation marco rubio. he called him a lightweight who sweated too much, but today, he got a lot more specific and a lot more pointed, zeroing in on something that trump knows just a wee bit about -- personal finances. trump: marco rubio's personal finances are discredited? all you have to do is look at his credit cards. he is a disaster with his credit cards. i love florida. i'm in florida all the time, and for years, i've been hearing

that his credit cards are a disaster. i would think when you take a look at it, you will find that, but his credit card debt and his problems with credit cards and what he did when he was running the party apparatus -- i've been hearing that for years. >> would you trust him to run the country finances or your finances? trump: he has a very bad record with finances, his houses -- he certainly lives above his means. there's no question about that. john: trump also took aim at one of rubio's major donors, paul singer. trump: ultimately, i think marco will be heard very badly. you have to see where mr. singer is coming from, and when you see where he's coming from, i think people are going to say, "whoa, we didn't know that." >> what specifically did you mean?

trunk: a lot of controversy. >> like what areas? trump: we'll see. i will talk to you. john: donald trump is not the first person questioning marco rubio's finances. he would not be the last, either, i would wager, so how vulnerable do you think rubio is on that issue? mark: we discussed shooting and missing, rubio can say at a debate it's all liberal attacks. many people around jeb bush and donald trump think in the end, rubio is going to have to run the gauntlet on this issue at least one more time and there will be a deeper dive into personal finances. bill clinton showed you can survive anything if you handle it well. sure marco rubio is yet in the bill clinton category. mike murphy, who has done more negative ads than any strategist or at maker we know -- you know he's got whatever it is on marco

rubio -- mike murphy has got it. he has not wanted to go negative so far at this early stage, but i cannot believe there will not be a lot of heavyweight negative advertising coming out of right to rise directly on this issue. mark: i will predict based on the past of other candidates that he will face, if he continues to rise, some issue that none of us have ever heard of in the national media, national politics, and he's going to have to face new facta and answer it, and i will be curious to see if his team is ready for it because they were not particularly ready in the first round. john: i just imagine now that "the miami herald," other papers in florida -- that is a swap politics situation down there. there will be stories. appears as if the rebel alliance has fallen apart. some of the candidates including a, andasich, carly fiorin others who have not said so thinking of, are

signing a joint letter of demand to spin to sponsors -- to send to sponsors of network debates. business is hosting the debate next week and has sent out a criteria process to get on the stage in milwaukee, you have an average ofand some polls -- they have not said which once nationally. that could put some candidates at past debates into the undercard debate. if we do see a slimmed down debate where two or three candidates fall off -- john: the candidate to get kicked off, they would be the losers. i think winners will be potentially -- again, double-edged sword. been carson talks about how he wants more time to talk, more time to elaborate. that this rapidfire debate has not worked to his advantage, he believes.

i do not know if he has a lot to say, but if he is there with six people, we will hear more from him. mark: do the math, drop one guy off, the time spreads out pretty evenly. trump said the people at 1% should get out of the race. it will be interesting to see if it is smaller if people step up more. one of the big dynamics from the last debate is they learned if they do not try to but in, they do not get talk time, but running in does not hit their personality. fewer candidates make that calculus a little bit easier. i think it will help jeb bush and suspect him feel less off his game. john: the other big loser i think would be chris christie. if he ends up off the main allte stage, that would cut the oxygen off. he would be doomed. next, we have polls, the president, and our powwow with ted cruz. we'll be back in exactly 60

seconds.

john: there are two big mega polls out today. nbc news, "wall street journal" national poll shows been carson leading the republican field, up seven point um two weeks ago. donald trump is second with 23%. marco rubio is in third. the democratic side, hillary clinton has extended her lead nationally and has double bernie sanders' support across the country. the real news is in new hampshire where a poll shows clinton leading bernie sanders for the first time in the granite date since this summer.

bunch of numbers. what interests you most? mark: if hillary clinton can come back, obviously, she could end democratic race in february if she could win new hampshire. second is trump dismissed last week's poll that showed carson ahead, but now, he has to consider that maybe he is not the national front runner. we will see going forward, but that has a big implication for what he might knew. -- what he might do. john: it is a real industry-standard poll. wonder not just if he is the front runner, but if he will have to start taking carson on, something he has not done so are. i have always thought that the famous home state advantage in new hampshire was overplayed, the history of the state. polls, people

still think he is the best. they think he would not be the most dignified president but think he would be the best on the economy, most likely to win, that are a etc. t likely to win, i think trump would do himself some good if he could get closer to been carson on favorable/a vrabel. favorable/unfavorable. the guy who has most of the attributes is jeb bush and is still lagging -- but who've still lagging in the polls. mark: listen to this perfectly timed laser shot barack obama aimed at republicans while for the dnc. president obama: have you noticed that every one of these candidates saying, "obama is weak, putin is kicking sand in , when i talked to putin

, he's going to straighten out," and then, it turns out they cannot handle a bunch of the nbc moderators -- cnbc moderators? onk: he also pushed back republican candidates who have been using his presidency as a punching bag. president obama: according to them, everything was really good in 2008 when we were going through the worst economic crisis in our lifetimes. unemployed and uninsured rates were up and we were hopelessly addicted to foreign oil and bin --en was ill on the loose still on the loose. this apparently was the golden age that i messed up. those soundbites are a reminder that this president is still very much a political force even though he will not be on the ballot. how potent a weapon can he be

until the election? want to sayer you about his governance, as a political performer, he is better than anybody running for president in the republican or democratic party right now, and in a race that will matter in terms of getting turnout up, that guy is still really popular and really good at that. level oft has a performance skill that swamps everybody and clearly will have his heart into getting a democrat in. i will tell you, mitt romney is being talked about more and more in elite for circles as the guy who could end of the nominee and win a general election against hillary clinton. do not be surprised if in coming weeks you will see mitt romney trying to match barack obama as a surrogate. john: his political skill was always right up there with barack obama, so that would be a really even match. mark: mitt romney pulling right now -- pulling right now -- better thant now

almost anybody in the republican party. we'll be right back. ♪

mark: senator ted cruz got high marks and justifiably so for his more substantive policy questions at the last debate. i caught up with him in iowa this weekend and we spent time talking about one of the walkie is --wonkiest things in american politics -- tax policy. take your best shot. explain simply what your plan would do. current tax: the plan is a complete mess. there are more words in it than in the bible. it is filled with more loopholes and special-interest carveouts. people are that up with it and

the abuse of an out-of-control irs that has been used to target political speech. i think we need fundamental reform. i'm campaigning on what i call the simple flat tax. it means for every individual, it's a simple flat tax rate of 10% that applies to everyone. that means every one of us can fill out our taxes on a postcard. after that, we can abolish the irs as we know it, and it altogether.- end it family of four, the first $1000 you earn, you pay nothing. family of 4, 30 $6,000, no tax of any kind gap senator cruz: not only no income tax, but we abolish the payroll tax for working men and women. for many americans, it's the biggest tax they pay. we take that to zero. go to retirement programs. how do you make of that revenue

yet the addition to the flat 10% tax for individuals, we tax.n place a 16% business we eliminate the corporate income tax and the obamacare taxes. a 16% flat is this tax applies to everyone. the virtue of that is it ends the discrimination in the tax code. right now, you have giant corporations with armies of accountants who sometimes pay little to no taxes or get refunds. everyone16% flat tax, pays the same so that the small businesses who are getting hammered under our current tax code pay the exact name rate that giant operations do. it is fair and even an uniform for everyone, and it generates the revenue. this program since the identical -- this program gets the article revenue that the current program does, but it gets there in a much fairer way. mark: family of four making

$36,000, they pay nothing. ? es any business pay more senator cruz: i know that every income sees a decrease, a real cut in taxes, from the poorest to the richest, and every single income sees a double-digit increase of at least 14% .ncrease in after-tax income if you are a single mom making $40,000 a year, a 14% increase in your after-tax income is an additional $5,600 in your pocket for you to spend, and the theues of this plan, nonpartisan tax foundation has scored everybody's tax plan, and it concluded at the 10 candidates on that stage, the best plan is my 4.9 million forle jobs, increasing

everyone at least 14%, wages going up, capital investment going up, and it has a dramatic impact on economic growth. growth is the key to turning around the challenges we have. i do not get to talk to you about making up lost revenue. you are choosing to keep the major deductions in place for home mortgage, or charitable -- what is the logic of keeping those? we preserve the charitable tax deduction. we preserve the home mortgage reduction, capped at $500,000 in principle. we do not have that deduction. the purpose was really twofold -- one, when we sat down to design this, it was annexed as the objective of mine that i everyone to see increases in taxable income -- it was eight specific objective of mine. actually, you need a plan that is political salable.

there are tremendous constituencies, very focused on those exemptions, with respect to the charitable exemption, i think it has a huge public policy benefit in that the more you have churches and charities and private organizations caring for the needy, the less government has to step in and do it, and i think churches and charities are with preserving, so preserving the -- i think churches and charities are much more important, so preserving the charitable tax-exempt and is important. the business flat tax is what is called border adjustable. that means for any manufacturer in this country who is exporting, they do not pay the 16% tax, which means suddenly american exports are markedly -- americantive crops, american products are markedly more competitive because they do not pay the 16% tax, which means our sales all over the world will go up. the flip side of that is every businessys the 16%

flat tax, so that is essentially a new tax on imports of 16%. tax being paid by american producers, so it has a level playing field. mark: how much revenue would that bring in? senator cruz: the impact altogether at the end of the day after 10 years to decrease aggregate revenue by about 770 billion dollars, less than $1 trillion -- i think that underestimates it because the modeling does not capture, for example, foreign companies moving to america and bringing jobs here because it would be much more attractive to create a business here. democrats talk a lot about corporate inversions, and the reason companies are fleeing america and going to foreign countries is we have created a tax environment and a regulatory environment that is so inhospitable that companies and jobs are fleeing. simplenact these cruz tax plan, the result will be other countries will be

complaining about corporate inversions because their company will be fleeing their countries, coming to america and the booming growth -- let me give you an analogy. to thebama from 2008 present, our economy has grown on average 1.2% a year. if we do not turn that around, we cannot all any of those problems. when jfk ran for president, he campaigned on 5% economic growth, and he enacted tax cuts and regulatory reform, policies the modern democratic party has abandoned. it used to be jfk and jfk democrats understood that tax reform produces jobs and economic growth and we saw 5% economic growth. we can do that again with real leadership. that's what cruz simple flat tax is all about. tax reformolitics of are so complicated. he talked about his tax plan in iowa. it's hard to do in an interview. think any of those who

have specific tax plans can get political advantage out of it yet the john: i think the main place you get political advantage is with elites. rubio has gotten some advantage. foras a cheering section that, saying it is pro-family, pro-working class. the biggest problem that you -- that looks to me like a giant budget buster, that flat tax plan. on how you scored. it is not as big as, say, trump's. bloomberge put contributor sam greenberg in the hot seat over his book. ♪

greenberg, where are you? there's going to be a whole .mount which we did jointly

it's going to show extraordinary changes on favorability. it shows us with a net positive favorable, about 10 points or more favorable, bush more negative, net negative. good six-point change or more. obviously, we are doing something right. [applause] clip that was a classic from the classic 1993 clinton documentary. joining us now, the man you just saw, democratic pollster and author of the new book "america ascendant." into the topic, which is this book, what has changed in america politically and electorally, since 1992? sam: absolutely everything. the democratic party was dealing

with old industrial party and old industrial order. we are dealing with revolutions that are changing the country. i argue in the book that we are going to make america dynamic, ascendant economically and culturally, but it has produced disruptive changes to america, the economy, the way of life, s andict between millenial's baby boomers. there was clinton -- a lot of change going on in 1992. they were generally in tune with the changes that were happening, globalization, information revolution, the new economy -- they talked about that a lot. the changes happening now -- is hillary clinton as well in tune with the changes you are describing as her husband was? if you look at her

candidacy, her pillars that she i'm actually quite surprised on how quickly she has stepped into this kind of perspective about what is happening in the country and about the future. she stopped talking about the four pillars, but maybe she will come back to them. stan: there has been a few distractions. mark: you are brimming with trump-ian optimism, but as you said, there has been a lot of negative stuff. the trends you are citing -- which once have to kick and more for the majority of americans to say we are on the right track? i think we are talking about historic changes. we have to go through some really disruptive changes. i don't think what we are looking at is linear. i'm talking about revolutions that are changing, this new american majority that we are looking at electoral he, but it's really a cultural majority,

dominant values that will ultimately dominate politics -- mark: are we five years away, 7, 20? if we have gone from 51% of the electorate being these new groups, racial minorities, single women, millenials, they will be 63% in this election next year. mark: that's a lot of change. it does not mean people will be happy. stan: happy comes when leaders of the country finally say, "we have big, new problems -- wage barack obama has addressed big problems, but i've been pretty clear and a little critical that he has not educated the country to the kind of structural problems we currently face. john: one of the things about the rise of the coalition of the ts, what is now the

democratic coalition -- one of the things that has happened is an argument in the party about the white working class, which used to be a really important part of the new deal coalition. are you now in the camp of those who say democrats can afford to write off the white working-class? stan: i do write about it in this book, which i'm sure you will want to read. what i argue is we have massive change. we tend to think of the white working class as coming out of blue-collar, more mail -- male. there is a white working class that is really struggling and racing problems, but they are more in tales and everest jobs, more women than in -- than men. we have to recognize it's not the only -- the old white working class. it's the new white working class. john: i think the data bears it out that the barack obama did not pull particularly well with

the white working-class in any election. how does hillary clinton stand relative to that challenge? obama has been silent on these issues. .e has been busy dealing with huge foreign-policy issues, universal health care. i think he will be an historic but on theositively, question of structural economic changes and not just economic, social changes, kids being parent,y a siegel working women, 2/3 of households have a woman as a breadwinner or co-breadwinner -- there's been .o policies to address this they have not been the center of the agenda, but it will get the center if you look at any of the democratic candidates. have done a lot of work around the world.

are we unique, or is every industrialized democracy facing these problems? stan: i think we are unique. see.e book, you will we just have this unique combination where technology gets centered, where education and research is entered, where energy is centered in terms of multiple types of energy, immigration, probably more than anything. the growth of the millenial's. then combine that with the diversity of the country. within the framework for turning into a common america. i think that's where republicans are most misaligned with what is happening. your help andor believe that there will be a new democratic president and whoever that is will focus on these issues, it is still not clear what is giving you this

optimism. all, i'm looking at a country that genuinely is economically dynamic and culturally very unique. one and five migrants in the world are in the u.s., but we have a framework for immigration u.s.nts becoming part of a multicultural identity. we are almost alone with that kind of identity which makes it benefit from immigration, but i'm looking at political change -- not political change but reform. look at what has happened in cities and dates. -- cities and states. people i know who

live in connecticut think it is the most economically dysfunctional. we had industrial revolutions that made america ascendant but had huge problems, began with reforms that the local and the level -- local and state level. rise in minimum wage, paid sick days, paid leave, childcare, universal health care, all of those things aren't danced as part of making work pay in this modern economy. we have deeply acknowledge that you are a bone-deep democratic partisan. i'm going to ask you now to put aside your partisanship. i know you think the republican party is deeply out of alignment with the rising american majority and the ascendant america you describe in the book. what are some hopeful signs that republicans might get their act together in a way that would be

compatible with your analysis, either something a candidate has said that you can praise, a development that has happened in can say thatt you republicans seem to get it -- give me one thing like that without trashing the gop. not trashing the gop. what i'm saying is what's happening now is given the fact that republicans have mobilized -- it's not just that we have this trend. they have mobilized the fight and polarized the country to do it and therefore alienated themselves. a strong teated party, which i believe will go to trump, and social conservatives, from which i think you will have a cruz emerge. i think it will be like 1984. look after 1984, democrats man -- ran with their mainstream candidate. got wiped out in a landslide.

harbor form the democrats bringing in the independents. for me, this is not linear. i think republicans will play a big part of the change in the future coming from the reaction to an election -- mark: we have less than a minute, but republicans are so horrible and out of touch, they control the house, this and it -- the senate. they must be doing something right. stan: when you get done reading the book, you will see. they have been able to raise turnouts, nationalize every election, but i think we will on that time -- it's

not going to continue. we will have a shattering election where these factions will, i think, become a battle over the future of the party. john: i think it's also where you had the opportunity to point to one place where republicans get it and you could not even find one but you think a will get it at some point in the future. the book again is "america ascendant." be right back with the best obama and trump impressions you will ever see from a single human you have never seen.

mark: donald trump new book is out today. it's called "crippled america," and he was autographing copies, talking to voters, and he was donald being donald.

pretty much all presidential candidates have books and book signings, but this one is a little bit different, a little bit more huge. it was not at a barnes & noble. it was at the skyscraper in manhattan bearing his name. it was preceded by a long press conference with reporters from around the world. what are the top three biggest threats to your candidacy now? trump: i don't see threats. whatever it is i have to do. who knows? you are in a crazy world halle takes. people change their minds. i'm going to make america great again. nobody else is going to be able to do that. mark: first fans in line got there at 4:00 a.m.. >> it will be worth it. i want to let him know how much i support him and let him know that college students out there do support him. >> come on, he's really entertaining. he is super smart.

he built this huge business. >> he's a businessman and he's all for the people. hek: he called us over when heard a story he wanted to share with the world. >> i'm 45 years old. i've never voted in an election my entire life. i've never cared. i've never paid attention. i know about pop culture. i don't know anything about politics. i'm finally paying attention. i finally want to vote. comic,ne fan, a standup showed his appreciation and a special way. we asked him to show us some of his act. pretty good obama. does he do a trump? trump: very good. very good. >> frankly, we're going to make america great again. trump: that's very good.

come here. come here. that's better than the pros. he is a pro. that guy is a pretty good mimic. john: we ought to hire that guy. mark: long press conference, took questions, signed books, but i have to say that he does candidatese a lot of , he does have fans who really like him. to me, being a happy warrior is a great thing for a candidate. the best thing for him about this book tour is he has not come in contact with that many voters like this. i think one of the strange discontinuities is that he is the happy warrior in terms of his temperament and goes out and frolics and frolics -- frolics and rolics. granted, there's the subtitle, how to make america great again,

but i always think at some point the basic pessimism he has about where the country is right now -- he does not say that america is the greatest country in the world but that we are in the toilet. i wonder if you can win the nomination with a mentally pessimistic -- with a fundamentally pessimistic take on america. democratic presidential candidate published " book called "crippled america -- i think republicans get away with more negative rhetoric. john: the optimistic candidate almost always ends up prevailing in both parties. interesting trump has done so well. like mostspect politicians, trump will buy some copies for himself. it will be fascinating to see how well it sells. some politicians published books and go higher up on the rankings.

it will be interesting to see if his book goes number one or hide. -- or high. john: he has had number one best sellers in the past. mark: he has. we will see. i wonder if after the bible and "art of the deal" this will be his third favorite deal. mark: he said they took all pictures of him smiling but decided in the end if your title is "crippled america," you cannot use a smiling photo. john: i don't think it is the most flattering photo. mark: our 24-hour campaign forecast in just 60 seconds after this word from our sponsor. ♪

john: it's another busy day out there and election land, so let's go live to our campaign forecast center where our chief meteorologist is standing by. what do you see on the doppler for tomorrow? alex: i would not take anything for granted -- granite state, that is. all fronts will be colliding in new hampshire tomorrow. .rump and o'malley also, an early arrival at a senior center in lebanon that will move to dartmouth and nashua for town halls, but keep your eye on manchester. a classic political nor'easter, a high and a low within four miles of each other. jeb starting his morning with early education reform at the founders academy and rubio teaming up with the chamber of commerce for a life of the party

event. that low energy we mentioned right intoould head some perspiration. remember, just like a poncho. mitt what i liked best was romney's face in the sun, a source of all light and warmth. i do think anybody think that those -- at this point could winthose guys iowa. there will be a lot of national and new hampshire press. i continue to think the answer to the perennial question is not south carolina where some people touted him earlier. i think new hampshire is the place where if he gets hot, that is the place -- third in iowa, first in

new hampshire is i think the rubio path. john: not that he was gaining ground there, but he could. mark: that is his theoretical path. ,s we get closer to february you will increasingly see candidates asking if they want to go to georgia or worry about a march contest. there's doubt about it those states will be a big deal. those states are a huge deal, and they will only get bigger. .ohn: there's no doubt about it we will see more candidates this time in the in either place all their chips or most of their chips in iowa or new hampshire. see: in both sides, i still even play. even someone like chris christie or john kasich, they will hedge one way or the other, but there will still be a lot of december

hedging of that's by almost everybody. mike huckabee is not playing in new hampshire. i think by the time we get willnuary, chris christie be living in new hampshire. top establishment candidate in iowa, and right now, any of them could be, it is something to fight for. john: that is it for weather. we'll be right back. ♪

mark: we're on the telly for an

hour twice a day, starting at 5:00 eastern and 8:00 eastern, but we're on our website always bloomberg.com at bloomberg.com -- always at bloomberg.com /politics. also, you have to be john mccormick's story about evangelical ground in iowa, and the most important battle over in ohio.g weed fingers crossed. we will show you the conversation with james carville on a conversation documentary about richard holbrook. ♪ we live in a pick and choose world.

love or like? naughty or nice? calm or bright? but at bedtime ...why settle for this? enter sleep number. don't miss the semiannual sale going on now! sleepiq technology tells you how you slept and what adjustments you can make. she likes the bed soft. he's more hardcore. so your sleep goes from good to great to wow!

gift the best sleep of your life to your whole family. only at a sleep number store. right now save $500 on the veteran's day special edition mattress with sleepiq technology. know better sleep with sleep number. emily: tesla names a new cfo. higher after hours despite weaker than estimated hard quarter results. -- third-quarter results.

i'm emily chang and this is "bloomberg west." reports of mixed quarter with some warning signs a hand -- ahead. a multibillion-dollar buyout. twitter hearts changed but existing users, not so much. we talked to a former board member about jack dorsey's latest move. first let's get caught up with our bloomberg first work news. u.s. stocks extended a rally today with the s&p 500 hitting a three month high. gained asd son mobile crude oil climbed to a three week high. the energy group has rebounded 22% from an august lo