corporate earnings stories. let's get your morning market open with nejra. ajra: an life possibility of -- a live possibility of a rate hike in december. aaders are now pricing in 15.8% probability. let's take a quick look at the dollar. ever souch flat, slightly higher. after yellen spoke, we saw it hit its highest level since august. we can see it weaker against the dollar. and as german factory orders unexpectedly dropping a third consecutive decrease. according to a berkeley -- barclays survey, it is ecb policy driving this more than anything the fed says. we have had gains in europe every day this week for stock.

the ftse 100 slightly off with bank of england's super thursday. got the rate decision, got the minutes. cac 40 moving almost 0.4% higher. we do have a lot of corporate earnings. let's take you through some of the main movers have been watching. increase in8% third-quarter profit. that number was a beat. the consumer banking unit. icole, down 2% at the moment. a 15% jump in third-quarter profit. it was helped by higher earnings in its stake. -- astrazeneca also

beating third-quarter profits. jon: keeping an eye on glencore profits. up by over 2% after deutsche bank upgrades the stock. here is what is happening in today's program. up, december first is live. and super thursday. carney's last chance to show his cards ahead of christmas. and the shanghai composite closes back in a bull market. yellen sets the scene for a december rate hike. the federal reserve chair hit a hawkish note suggesting that a

2016 rate hike was still on the table. >> what the committee has been expecting is that the economy will continue to grow at a pace that is sufficient to generate further improvements in the labor market, and to return inflation to our 2% target over the medium-term. informationing supports that expectation, our statement indicates that december would be a live possibility. but we have made no decision about it. chair they be prepared to go live in december but one democratic congressman advised that the gods time for the left off might be more generous. >> god's plan is not for things to rise in the autumn. as a matter-of-fact, that is why we call it fall. nor is it god's plan things to

rise in the winter through the snow. god's plan is that things rise in the spring. with thent to be good almighty, you might want to delay until may. correctly,emember janet yellen has a little that board so, brad sherman, put your application in. investigators ignored his plea. shift.e hike bets as for the questions this morning mark bradshaw is ahead of global effort 16 which mentor than 950 billion euros. i will not ask you about congressman sherman did pick debate is there were two bank. others wanted a conviction of forecast that it will move back to target in the short

term. >> it is not so much that whether that more confident inflation will move toward target, the effect of china and august has brought a lot of uncertainty. gives them confidence that they can continue with the game plan which is december liftoff at a gradual move and normalizing interest rates. fuse -- views make people nervous. do you share the view? >> i think the market is not pricing enough. the market price is in the order of to write hakes -- rate hikes and 16. what they most likely expect to happen is four hikes in 16 and five in 17.

the market is just above 50-50 and they have not priced enough in terms of rate hike risk premium. we are short the very front end of the u.s. bond market. jon: treasuries, yields, two years. what is at me for you? >> in terms of the 10 year sector, it will be more protected. more protected because it is about repositioning the front and and the 10 year as more driven by global factors and the ecb mate will be cutting interest rates. is not lookingan at further asset purchases but , the marketiquidity is still flush. loop?t is the feedback the yields push higher. that means rate differentials are in play again for the dollar

and the euro. does that just feedback into the fed? >> it will depend on the data. u.s.ad of the data is the domestic economy is doing fine. it is being cleared with inventories and net trade but the domestic economy is doing fine. very strong consumption growth and that is what drives the u.s. economy. i think it will not prevent them from continuing with the game plan a steady rate rises and i would expect them to go slower and then quicken. quicken up. jon: everyone likes to call it the big one until the next one. it comes out tomorrow. is it about the obstacle to hiking? >> i think it is about the obstacle to hiking.

something in line with consensus 130 is fine.or as long as there is nothing flashing red they will continue with that plan of a december rate hike. carney'sext, it is turn. will he keep the door open for a winter move?

jon: good morning and welcome back to on the move. the main event in the city. for now, let's get to this morning's company news. facebook revenue beat estimates. third-quarter sales rose to $4.7 billion as the advertising push paid off. gains at the consumer unit of the lender offset a training slump. ceo saidto bloomberg they will be cutting more jobs as the industry restructures. >> there will be job cuts. reporter: do you think it would

be more in the range of hundreds or thousands? >> i would say more in the range of thousands. has downgraded of volkswagen's credit rating after the admission that more vehicles were affected by the scandal. standard & poor's cut the w just last month. the bank of england releases its latest monetary policy decision, minutes, and inflation report. the last one was anything but super. let's get to mark barton outside the bank of england. the last super thursday with a dollar fair. are we expecting something different? mark: if there are going to be fireworks, it could come in the voting intentions of the

monetary policy members. some analysts and economists forecasting the split could be 7-2. the other thing to watch is the medium term inflation projection. near-term, we expect the bank of england to cut its forecast. it referred to the minutes that the forecast for the near-term are to the downside. inflation they said will come in at roughly 2.03% and 2.14% for three years. if those figures stay the same, that could be the fastest way of telling the market that your november bet for the rate hike

is too dovish. but economists are more hawkish. they are going for a rate hike in the second quarter of 2016. jon: the fascinating thing about this is that the market has been dead right. over the last four years. . i wonder. . if that will change in the next four years. what has changed since last super thursday in august? mark: the last super thursday was august 6. you know what happened august 11. that is when china devalue its currency, causing huge financial market turbulence. the bank of england in october markets hasnce is not had a huge effect on the economy. since august, we have had the third-quarter gdp number. you know it came in at .5% showing there has been some feedthrough, but data this week

has been interesting. manufacturing rose for 60 months. -- 16 months. theave interesting views on economy from gdp and the pmi data. but inflation. where is it? -1% since the last reading. that has only happened twice since 1960. but mark carney said it will only become shorter -- sharper at the start of 2016. but that is right around the corner. economiststerate, say second quarter next year, the markets is 2016 november. who is right? maybe we will get more reference at 12:00 when we get a simultaneous release of the rate decision, the minutes, and the quarterly inflation report.

jon: it all sounds so familiar. thank you for joining us this morning. still with us is mark bradshaw. what my colleagues have called it previously, the yellen-carney spread. it seems very white. why -- very wide. why and does he need to bring that back in? >> the u.k. is similar to the u.s. economy that growth has been progressing steadily and wages have been slowly climbing up but there has not been inflation flashing red. so do we need to move stuff quickly? it is very similar. the issue is, with the fed moving to december, the bank of england will want option analogy. they don't want to get them to pricing of february or mate rate hike. -- or may rate hike. but if they do it is not a shock to the economy. how it is fascinating to me

central banks are navigating current risk. they say the domestic economy is ok, it is the problems abroad. in the u.k. and the u.s.. i wonder what the risks are. what is flashing red for the bank of a glut? -- for the bank of england? >> we are at normal interest rates. you don't want to start putting them up from zero when something is flashing red. by then it is way too late. it is about taking your time but doing it early enough that you will not rise rates early. redere are things flashing that says we need tighter monetary policy, but things are flashing green to say why have we got such easy monetary policy with zero interest rates? time to take the foot of the gasol at the car slowed down.

and let the car slowed down. jon: in some opinion, this is an excessively dovish curve. >> something has got to give. the likelihood is that the exchange rate is second to managing the economy which is normalizing interest rates. back in the deep recession recovering. the exchange rate goes up. jon: final question. what are you looking for today? is it the vote? >> the vote would be a headline grabber, but to get a vote for a rate hike it is carney and his deputies that swing it. for me, it will be the inflation forecast. the key thing that has changed is that the two-year swap rates

are 20 basis points lower. that should result in higher inflation and that is the signal they will send to the market. that is the first thing i would be looking at. jon: great to have you with us. the good, the bad, and the bull. the shanghai composite closes up 20% from its august low.

city of london and good evening to asia. it is richard frost our emerging stocks editor. great to have you with us. they have been buying shares again, is all forgiven from the summer? >> has everyone forgotten about the china meltdown? i haven't. there is no doubt we are seeing ordinary investors moving back in the market. very healthy pickups and a lot of different indicators.

shortselling has been squeezed and all these point to the fact that all of those efforts the government took to stabilize the market started to bear fruit. we have seen a lot of speculative stocks doing well. that thoseorget government measures are not -- still in place. there has not been an ipo since they banned them. major shareholders sell shares. we still have a lot of state funds holding sizable stakes and a host of companies. encouraging signs of recovery in the market. the big question is going to be, what happens when the state thinks it is comfortable enough to step back. jon: that is the question i want

to talk to you about. we are in a bull market, but 30% is off the high for the year. when you look at the clear out, is it a healthier market? or is what is underpinning the rebound just as fragile as the run up at the start of the year? >> the analysts and traders were much more gung ho about the bull market back then and much more circumspect. mining market rates we have seen going down. at the same time, there is concern about earnings. it was a particularly poor third-quarter so without this recovery and earnings we have a continued slowdown in the economy. people are worried that this is a bear market rebound.

money will start to take off the table and as we start to get signs that the government is pulling back is it strong enough to continue. jon: great to have you with us. conversatione the with miles bread shop. -- bradshaw. with fixed income if you want exposure to china? >> it is difficult to get direct exposure. china, 2008 to 2014 has been about strong investment demand. for us is looking at us really a in new zealand and canada. slows, that means more likely the rba will have to cut rates. likewise, it means that the australian and canadian dollar

is more likely to come under pressure. the other one is thinking about the asian supply chain. a weaker taiwanese dollar and a week in -- weaker could we and -- a weaker korean won. jon: up next, adidas earns its stripes. some decent earnings this morning. ♪

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what. you don't have a desk bed? don't be left in the dark. get proactive alerts 24/7. comcast business. built for business. jon: i am jonathan ferro join you from the cold, damp, city of london. they called it super thursday lunchtime and it was anything but. tradinges into your day. the ftse 100 coming off of a three-day winning streak and we are lower by 35 points. so many movers that we need to discuss. sterling pretty much dead flat on the session. yield on the u.s.

2-year note, 0.83%. that is a 2011 high. hawkishback of a pretty session. they are the bond moves in the fx moves. looking at some of the biggest gainers this morning starting with stock general second biggest bank. a 28% increase in third-quarter profit. coming in at 1.3 billion euros want a significant beat. what happened is the consumer bank offset the slump in trading revenues. zeneca, -- moving on to after zeneca.

it failed to win u.s. approval for a new diabetes treatment but the earnings today were a beat. earningsny raised its and sales forecasts for the full year. finally one of the biggest gainers on the stoxx 600. the fullally upgraded year for the second time this year. this was after third-quarter profits beat analyst expectations. say i am very pleased to that the company's president joins us by phone from copenhagen. the investors like you this morning. the share buyback boosting full-year guidance. how does this continue? >> thank you.

a good performance. across most financial parameters. the u.s. accounts for 40% of your announced orders. still no clarity on tax credits for wind projects. what happens if congress does not extend them? >> we expect the rest of the that it willell come up to congress in the and i will not speculate which way it will go. look look at the orders and 31 countries and five continents

during the first five months. today we showed that we were growing. it's more and more compared to the u.s.. happens that we will get clarity. jon: let's look at the contingency planning. if the market accounts for that much revenue for your profit and does get a little bit more difficult, which regions are you most bullish about on growth? >> if you look at the results for the first nine months, this year we are growing 27%. europe middle east and africa. we are growing 98% in asia.

we have a good activity level across the border and a lot of the growth that we see in america. growth in the radius of investors. >> next month, do you expect new impetus for your industry? what do you expect out of the conference? >> there has been a lot of positive pre-discussions. i think the agreements between the u.s. and china is positive. the euro is definitely positive. of course a lot of decisions have to happen between good support.

the momentum for renewables and the price on pollution, i feel it there. congratulate -- congratulations on the results. there is another bigger earning story out of germany. adidas scores in the third quarter and is betting that its winning streak is set to hold for the rest of the year. better sales are in europe and china. hans nichols has more from frankfurt. breakdown the numbers. another set of decent earnings. hans: we saw the total net come in at 311 million euros. turnaroundey have a plan. 2015 isa bad year and

shipping out to be a better year. he said where executing the goal line much faster than we had anticipated. they are trying to return the profit and have a strategy of focusing on other key cities. these are goodd, numbers. 500 million. currency neutral up. they don't have a buyer for unit.gulf unit -- golf stock is higher. the good news stops of their. bad, people tell me

it is noisy point. third we have had. we are a little surprised on downside. the difference between first negative readings and this is we orders declining in side. last quarter it was outside. a month ago we had three batches of bad data. it showed there were not actually selling that much abroad. pmi was advised slightly downward. we will see what we get with industrial production.

dealers giving rebates to reduce sales. next stimulus following third quarter

jon: welcome back.

time to get to company news. they beat estimates with an increase this quarter. speaking to bloomberg, the ceo said it will cut more jobs. >> there will be job cuts. we're first to share that with france. or thousands? >> more like thousands. moody downgrading vw after this scandal. stock is down 3%. beat estimates.

users jumped 14%. let's bring in caroline hyde. tech capital in dublin, where facebook has european hq. caroline: not only sales up, profit up. this number never fails to stun 1.55 billion users. we are seeing 20% of world's population accessing facebook. it gets creepy. some of the videos you see. accessing instagram.

comman, a lot of money per advert. videos get more targeted. zuckerberg saying he wants them more creepy. >> we want to give people a way to see all the videos that they interestellow, is did in sharing on facebook. a pretty clear roadmap that i'm excited about. caroline: the more targetted the y become, the more money they can charge. perring in 3 users

dollar. in the u.s. it is far more. in asia, it is less than three dollars. is blockedhina for facebook. the government doesn't like it, but companies do. ingernal companies want advertising via instagram. jon: so many earnings numbers thi smorning. the west african gold producer sales down. the ceo told us he is still upbeat about the metal. wewe played at 1000, so should be happy. wean important point is

were never impaired. we are a profitable business. caroline: manus: you are talking positively as well. talking of devivering new production record. >> that is right. that is the point. the gold indusrty plans to bolden the peaks. e troughs.in the this is how we started rangold. jon: lets check in on the miners. rangold stock is lower. 0.4% despite an upgrade. guy johnson is here.

lonmin. are you a low cost producer? longmin struggling. guy: this company used to be s here inssell london. it is saying, we are out of that is a real indication of how tough it is out there. look at what is happening in that space and it is very, very tough. >> do i want to take that risk? say, i am not

putting good money after bad money. >> incredibly tough, but for gold, a decent balance sheet. -- they are at the top end, but they are struggling as well. >> you have to separate the wheat from the chaff. mr. bristow is very clear about his prerequisite for the way things work. we have a labor cost story and he works all of those numbers. we are in a very difficult environment, gold has been going down for a very long period of time. if janet yellen is right, what does that mean for his business?

himquestion i wanted to ask , i would love to have gotten his reaction. >> the nervousness around the sector is still there. the stock is still lower. >> there is a push and a pull. overlay is quite difficult as well. that is partly affecting the rand gold story as well. the earnings season out of the states, and you look at why, it is energy stocks that are suffering. today is another case. >> guy johnson, good to have you with us. q i for joining us. -- thank you for joining us. carney shows us his cards.

>> good morning. welcome back to "on the move." here is the data to watch. the rate decision and inflation report, u.s. initial jobless claims, more details on the u.s. labor market. federal reserve bank of atlanta

president speaks in switzerland at 6:30 p.m. discuss the bank of england's super thursday, but decision, the minutes, richard jones and manus cranny. curve.ssively dovish if you go after one, do you get bitten by the other? >> the curve is dovish, not nearly as dovish as it was eight days ago. -- toe moved from november 17 two left off. se indds of a rate ri august have risen to about 80%. that is more dovish than the bank would like, but not nearly as dovish as it was.

the year of sterling is trading below 71. -- euro-sterling trading below 71. if you get some real traction to the downside, that will not be real helpful to the bank. >> the spread is nine months wide. >> q1 2017, the market is coming home to daddy. today, what will be really interesting, i just wonder, my favorite graphic of the day -- >> we haven't. -- we have it. >> whether there will be a shift.

i am not an economist. economists are bashing the screens going, what are you talking about? i will go out on a limb, i have read a number of conversations with people. i have had conversations with -- it is tough. property prices under pressure. people are beginning to not understand what is happening in the real economy. i absolutely dispute that this week's data is sufficient to move the hawkish pendulum. >> i hear more and more reports about the downturn in the property market and how sensitive the bank of england will be to that. does the discussion start to drift away?

>> that trend is happening, yes. the headline pmi numbers this week were pretty encouraging. if you look underneath the bonnet, there are some worrying trends. i think those inflationary pressures are really what market participants are looking at and that is why the expectation from traders and investors is more dovish than economists. super thursday will not be very super at all, according to these guys. manus cranny coming up with francine lacqua on "the pulse." best of luck for the rest of your day.

euro-sterling a little bit stronger this morning. ♪

francine: the fed's most powerful trio have spoken. a hike is on the table. stock markets tumble. manus: super thursday at the boe. francine: policy impact in china. bubbles are back in town. -- the bulls are back in town. manus: facebook video ad sales drive the share price to a new record. francine: welcome to "the pulse