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tv   On the Move  Bloomberg  November 9, 2015 3:00am-4:01am EST

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touches to his letters of the u.k.'s demands for the european union. ok that's what we are watching this morning. let's get across to the touchscreen with your market open. we have weak trade data out of china area that are than expected trade data out a german. let me quickly check in with the copper price down almost 0.3% and just though worst performing on the london exchange. likely reacting to that data out of china. mixed picture in asian stocks overnight. a look at europe. german trade data better than expected. exports up 2.6%, beating estimates, better than august. a lot better than people expected. up one0 pretty much
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point. 1%. cac 40 pretty flat. still waiting for the dax to open. will we see a jump after the export data out of germany? we will take a look at some of the stocks we are watching this morning. a lot of corporate news coming out today in europe starting with continental europe's second-largest tire maker. third-quarter profit grew 11%. coming in at 1.0 8 billion euros. what helped to this company was weaker commodity prices but also a weaker euro. and sort of a line with what michelob is saying. the biggest competitor. european a u.s. car sales that helped it. slowing demand in china. we will wait for that to move. shares, we saw the jump in johannesburg, the biggest intraday gain since october on
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the back off the $407 million right off of the company previously warned that it was on the brink of collapse in and we could see thousand more job losses. and was of as much as 20% does not seem to be moving at high yet. bhp, are we seeing a third day of the clients? the ceo is going to brazil today. prosecutors looking for the suspension on licenses at the iron ore venture. deutsche bank is saying clean up costs of exploding dams could exceed $1 billion. back to you. manus: thank you for that. that's what's happening in the markets this monday. what is happening in "on the move?" the german surplus beat expectations. we break down the numbers. a fight for survival. a look at the company's. and brexit risk. david cameron players to address the british businesses at the
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cbi conference. will he give clues about what the contents of the letter outlining his eu demand? the devil is always in the details. ♪ manus: troubling to the lowest and him was three weeks after the country's exports fell for fourth more, exceeding expectations of all third way economists surveyed by bloomberg. let's talk to enda curran. when you look at a data, it is pretty tawdry. and falling for the fourth straight month. what does all of it mean for china's ability to realistically hit best 6.53% for the longer-term? the 7% target? enda curran: well, good morning. it is a reminder of the challenges china is facing.
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offset, not all of his china driven. some is weak china partners. china can i do much about what is happening in japan or the eurozone. on the import inside, a price impact. it reflects the following price for iron ore. , shows hower picture the factory and manufacturing sector in china continues to struggle. growth driver although china wants to boost consumption, boost innovation, those sectors are coming along nicely but not doing enough to fill the hole left by sluggish importers and manufacturers. how difficult it will be to breach of the 7% target this year. and 6.5% as they are talking about. manus: help me with this. at one juncture they tell us we are going for targeted stimulus packages.
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relief on auto purchases. relief in terms of the ability to buy more than one property. targeted,ou can yank, stimulus measures, but reserve requirement cut rate. the big, old, bold impact stimulus. where are we in this debate? enda curran: yeah, it can be a confusing picture. a balancing act between what they do not want to do is the easiest way to explain, not repeat what they did in 2008 when they injected hundreds of billions into the economy. bank lending which left an overhang of baghdad. -- bad debt. continuing to drive growth now. what they want to do now is truly stimulate growth but to be a bit clever. they want to get the landing going to keep projects. they want a potential bank tweaking and credit particular
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challenges. you mentioned a boosting auto sales. a big blanket roll out of the fiscal stimulus like we cite in 2008 and 2009 and tried to be smarter a gay growth going. still suffering from the post stimulus. manus: thank you very much. enda curran bloomberg's chief asian correspondent. for more on what is going on in the market, i am joined by stewart richardson. great have you with us. clever according to enda. boxing clever with stimulus and interest rates and targeted measures. what do you make after the record that trade declined? stewart richardson: they are trying to do everything. official number 7% or 6%.
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a massive slow down. you can break up the chinese economy between the old economy, and so on and the new economy which is doing a lot better. believers in the past our focus on the sle set to the debt limits which are atrocious. thanks not lending as much and so on. a real struggle. managed economy to speak, manage it in the right way because of the past decisions they have made. the problem is hitting this growthtrade volumes, no in trade volumes at all. major currency movers in the last few years. the yen in particular. a big head went for asia -- head went for asia. asia with china and maybe the epicenter with a stronger dollar. try andly struggling to
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get the growth engine going again. no easy answer. manus: no easy answer. the yuan currency has depreciated by 23% since it hooked up with the dollar in 2005 per we are up i-20 for percent in terms of the yuan. the market saw a little bit of weakness. -- in 2005. -- we are up 20% in terms of the yuan. not the answer to all of china's problems. stewart richardson: the argument would be now they are going for market base fx policy, translated to looking for gradual declines in the yuan over the longer term. managed depreciation. you can see and this off selling, setting down reserves, both european and u.s. government bonds. trillion torom $4 $3 trillion and managing
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currency through the reduction of fx reserves and trying to manage the outflow of capital through reduction which would release domestic money. you can see pulling virtually ever -- every level they have available. major problems now. also the nonperforming loans in the banking system. about 1.5%. anywhere from 6%-20%. the higher number, a significant problem for china. really become a problem on the downside, but something that have to manage that will slow growth as well. manus: you'll stay with us. stewart richardson there. up next. better thans expected data. we will break down the numbers with hans nichols. that is next. ♪
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manus: i am manus cranny.. this is "on the move." canceled almost 1000 flights. cabin crews -- the airline said more than --,000 passengers face vigorish of headlines said and the global economy is growing at a slower pace. thaneo said it is weaker
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expected under the current growth forecast. forecastower the gdp to 3.1%. a slow down in emerging markets because a weak commodity prices. have executive officer resigned from the africa biggest mobile carrier. had on register phone cards. germany has posted better than expected data this morning. a relief to many some would say. well ahead of the forecast hans nichols is standing by in berlin with more. this is a relief to see the data coming through. break it down for osborne hans: what we size the month of august, the most recent figures before that was disappointing. around 15 billion for export
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surplus. of 20 billion, 22.9 billion. must on month, 2.6 percent increase. the 2% increase. i dug into the numbers to figure out where the growth was. here is what they are. year on year, 4.4% increase. not just outside of the eurozone but outside of the euro area. eurozone grew 6.9%. the overall eurozone, 28 members. that was 7.4%. almost close to 9% outside the eu. that gives you a sense at least in september, some of the growth picking up outside of europe. it is important because last month, we had three sets of that numbers. that factory orders, industrial production, disastrous trade figures. this month, negative news on industrial production and negative factory orders but was
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not followed by a falloff in exports. one thing to note on the three back to the numbers comedies are all pretty far looking backwards. all september numbers, the million of no -- middle of november now. they do not give us a great snapshot in terms of what is happening right now. we were line on pmi numbers which have been not great, but not bad. manus? manus: thank you for that. still with stewart richardson. listening to hans, a story of shipped 15% other containers around the world and they are worried. 15% of consumer goods around the world. a company which says get concerned you significantly weaker dater than expected. not at richardson: is brand-new story. the last few quarters from the beginning of this year.
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will send a year on year trade flows stagnant cap -- we have seen year on year trade flows stagnant. range andin the 3-ish expect more in volume of trade. a real strong outlook of what is happening. speculating that consumer spending habits. people are spending less time going to the shops and spending money that way. they might be doing more online shopping and more shopping electronically. if they want to buy games, downloaded electronically. some of the intellectual property what had to be sent out to asia and so on for the manufacturers other goods is coming back closer to europe or america or so on. it is having an effect. we do not know the exact order is a symptom of slow global growth and potential changes in spending in a way that we spend our leisure time. we will get more retail
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data from the united states this week with some will be a validation of janet yellen. the jobs report and unemployment is a low was in 70 years. pay rises galore. -- unemployment at the low was in seven years. if we are getting ready set go in terms of the hike in december, if you're not already positioned, how do you add for the position from an equity? for me, it plays out quickly. stewart richardson: our view is the easiest trade is the currency markets. i think the next few weeks, dollar is strong, developed marking and emerging markets. , the best structural trade for us is to implement a strong dollar value against the emerging markets. in particular the mercantile countries in asia. even though with euro-dollar goes down, the dollar asian
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story which 15 to attract a longer-term. manus: we have a couple of those. taiwanese dollar. we have the taiwanese dollar. we'll got the yuan. there is a story on the terminal, our top fx page which talks about dollar bulls are vulnerable. this goes to the last two times you saw this rampant in the dollar position. year, itearlier this was around march of this year, dollar tumbled wind-up said mentioned dollar strength. -- when the dust said mitch -- when the fed mentioned dollar strength. the dollar is trading at a relative sense at a near high? stewart richardson: stripping that developing market and emerging-market. developed market, have to resist short-term direction, dollar
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strength. a story that is more nuanced. i guess at the situation is what happens if you get a rate rise in december which is priced dan. what happens after that? will we see the start of a rate of cycle of going of every quarter? a year or two years? 2 rate rises and done. franciscohad the san said president. he's that we have crosscurrents. -- he said would've crosscurrents and have to wait for data. when it comes to jobs, we only need 65,000 to keep the growth going. a very low benchmark for the december payrolls number, isn't it? stewart richardson: a trend rate in the u.s. which is better post glc. the fed has been stimulating and
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jobs higher than required. we have got from 5%-10% a few years ago. what do they do from here? if we print to hundred plus, the fed is behind the curve. feddrop list, this is a immature. a very good print. a three-month average and many other data, it seems the u.s. economy is slowing down. performingice sector very well and at levels it does not get much better. the high 60, it does not get better. parcells of 18 million, it does not get better than that. sales of 18 million, it does not get better than that. looking at some of the lacking indicators, not much better. the fed is in a mature cycle and where is the view of 2 rate
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hikes. manus: one hike at christmas -- one inewart richardson: march and i think we are done. there will say we are not sure what is going on. let's see what impact of the 2 rate hikes have. a different story for the u.s. economy in 2016. industrials performing poorly. it looks like it is on fire. a next cycle peaking. we will take with a stronger dollar. manus: very conclusive. stewart richardson, thank you for joining me. img wealth management. up next -- stock. we will have the latest on the troubled miner. ♪
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manus: welcome back. this is "on the move." i am manus cranny. a bit of a rally in south africa as the third-largest platinum producer announced plans to raise over $400 million. it is been a tough month for the south african miner with the value down almost 50%. a little bit more on this story with ryan chilcote. good to see today. some of the numbers are staggering. a big discount they are going for. give us the details.
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writing two bits of news. -- ryan: two bits of newsprint selling at a 90% value to stay alive. the first bit of news. goldman sachs put out a news. tois a positive and that led a pop in the share price in johannesburg. at their earnings, pretax loss of $3.25 billion. year on year. a widening on the laws. operating loss over $2 billion. revenue on 3.2 billion which is more they had in the fiscal year going into this. taking get more money but given the platinum price and world's third-largest platinum producer, making less money. another update on production saying in the past year, there produced several hundred 51,000 ounces of platinum. the most since 2007. -- 751,000 ounces of platinum. what they said about what did it
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would do in the coming year. 700 and it is year. a bit of a reduction. little bit out. the problem is with all of the platinum producers is in the market is not what it was 10 years ago. in this sense you have recycling adding more and more to the etf's in addition to the that are backed by the asset and makes it difficult for the producers to control the price. manus: ryan chilcote, thank you. an update on bhp, the ceo is bhpng to brazilian where has to deal with the consequences, tragic consequences of a major down first. the ceo on his way to brazil. more on that story through the morning here at bloomberg. up next -- brexit. you will get a bucket of this in
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2016. we are live at the annual cbi conference where britain's relationship with the eu is somewhat say the only our hottest topic. stay with "on the move." ♪
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manus: welcome back. this is "on the move." i'm here in london. 30 minutes into the trading day, i dole and dank london -- a dull and dank london. european equity markets are just closing, london up 131%. -- london up one third 1%. up.ks in europe have been let's move it along because the real impact from the jobs report along with the chinese data is in the foreign exchange market. the euro just trading up i one quarter of 1%.
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goldman sachs is still calling for parity on the euro-dollar by the end of the year. the real impact of the process act of the federal reserve hitting tightening mode in december. there is the dollar index this morning. moving,ysian ringgit the biggest loss in almost three weeks, down 19%. the aussie dollar down. the chances of them having to cut rates in december has now slipped 20% from 26% as a result of the federal reserve data. let's have a look at the energy markets. oil halting its decline at the $45 level. -- let's pull that off. some strange dinner there are for you.
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sorry about that mistake. we want to bring you some breaking news headlines now, coming across the bloomberg terminal. this is in regards to global banks in terms of the capital shortfall. this is from the ssb. global banks have a maximum 1.2 trillion shortfall. this is very much a result of reducing dividends, building capital reserves. this is the central tenant of what is going on at barclays, at deutsche bank, at credit suisse, all pushing toward higher capital. global banks have a maximum shortfall of 1.2 trillion. in the meantime, one lady has everything you need to know. nejra. nejra: a lot of corporate news and i was dark with this, the swedish company that makes polymer products and tires.
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it has risen as much as 12% today, the most in more than six years. nothing to move the stock quite like m&a. it is announced that they have company, buy a checks to strengthen its position ahead of an anticipated recovery. that is the biggest gainer on the stoxx 600 today. europe's number two tire manufacturer, raised its profitability goals a second time this year. third-quarter profit also rose 11% to 1.0 8 billion euros, which was a beat. but something in those numbers are making investors uneasy, because that stock is down almost 4%. finally, lonmin -- we have been talking about it all morning. this company was on the brink of a shutdown, will not anymore.
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it plans to raise about $407 million in a rights issue. the stock has risen the most in a week, up 9% in johannesburg. this company has really been battling because of lower platinum prices. it had to cut thousands of jobs. it is still burning through cash, that news from today giving investors a bit of respite. manus: nejra there, with all the stocks moving in europe. a possible brexit today. the majority of businesses say they want to stay in the european union, albion a reformed version. let's go to anna edwards at the cbi event. good morning. let you go with you -- who have you got with you? anna: that phrase -- the
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majority of business -- comes from cbi, a line they have in giving for a number of years. we are here at the cbi conference, and they find themselves having to defend that report in the face of political criticism. one of the key talking points is when will the vote take place on brexit? one newspaper is talking about how it could be next summer. we have had mixed views for some of the people we spoke to about whether the sooner the better is whether the mantra. to findlk to businesses out what this does to the investment decisions and the decision-making they have to go through. cbi.e joined now at great to see you. in terms of this debate about women the vote takes place, the sooner the better -- does that matter for your business? >> as far as i'm concerned, the sooner the better. we are in the real estate business and for us sentiment is important. people want to know where they stand. if we can have the vote taking
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place next year, why not? anna: how does the brexit debate impact on the business like yours? anything that would list or detriment -- would lift or detriment would be key. >> while people think about property in the u.k. said, we are global attractor for capital, particularly in london, and for many tens of hundreds of years international capital has come to london. i'm interested in how london's role plays out. secondly, construction is a real issue with workers, skilled workers. mobile a lot on a workforce through europe to come into the u.k. market and provide the skills we need. again, a free market in europe for the construction industry is important, because construction costs are going up. anna: are you actively engage in the political process? are you involved in lobbying the
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government to stay in europe? >> definitely. as a business, we are being vocal about it. we think there is a responsibility to express our opinion. we think it is in the national interest to be in europe, and particularly in terms of london's status and where businesses locate their hq's. the u.k. is an attractive place at the moment and that may change. anna: are you experiencing -- we talk a lot about the slowdown in china -- a lot of that money has in the past been attracted to london. are you experiencing issues with transactions because of the strength of the pound or the slowdown in china? are these global trends weighing? >> it affects certain markets in different ways. the weight of money generally wanting to invest into london and the u.k. hasn't changed dramatically, because we are growing on lots of different places. if we were totally reliant on asia or china, then yes, that
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would be a problem. but there are lots of different types of real estate you can invest into. the housing market has been slightly affected, particularly by chinese imports and investors, who have held off. anna: what does that mean? we have seen the market reduction. >> their place has been taken by others -- the middle east has stepped in -- anna: the week oil price. >> definitely. there are still wealthy nations in the middle east and a lot of them are private investors looking to spread their money. suddenly, the u.k. seems a safe even to put your money. anna: what do you see for the property market? do you think the london property market will peak? >> it's interesting. we have had very sparse momentum in terms of the residential market, but also the commercial market, in terms of capital values increasing and the price of houses increasing dramatically over the last three years.
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it will definitely slow down but it is still in positive territory. central london is probably not the biggest grover awer out there. with a lack of supply, usually that puts more pressure on the existing stock. more gentle growth going forward -- it might be more boring and not as dramatic. but for the residential market that is a good thing. anna: a little more boring. you heard it here first. you talked about under supply, but what about oversupply in the luxury market? >> we are not producing a lot of luxury supply. but demand has definitely dropped off, and that has been a direct result of stamp duty. anna: great to see you. thank you for tunin joining us. back to you. manus: good to see you have all of the church cover their. -- covered there. anna edwards at cbi.
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let's bring you a little more detail on the financial stability board, which mark carney has -- we will hear a lot more about this. this is for the biggest banks, too big to fail banks. aside --sk assets set 16% of the risk assets set aside. it was at 6% initially and it is now up to 6.75%. just reaffirming, defining what it is that the global banks that are too big to fail need to have set aside in terms of capital. up next, sales failed to take off at the dubai air show. we are down on the ground. ♪
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manus: this is "on the move." let's get straight out to dubai, where the air shows taking place. insiders are gathering for the boeing day as airbus and sink the orders from the major persian gulf carriers. let's get straight to elliott gotkine. elliott? elliott: good morning. i am pleased to say that i am joined by the senior vice president at boeing commercial.
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two years ago, it was manic. record for airbus, but it is a breath this time. >> it is great to be here. always great to be here with our customers. we are having a strong show this year, but clearly nothing like we had two years ago, when we set a record with $100 billion worth of orders and the launch of the tripl777x. elliott: did they over order are does this represent an indication of a slowdown? >> i think it is just a reflection of we had a dark day two years ago and things are a bit more normal this year in terms of activity. last week, we announced oman for today.and yesterday, we talked about two 777 freighters.
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this is a normal activity. elliott: you have been talking one planetio -- order to every plane delivered. you get a new order every delivery. you are expecting deliveries of 755 this year, and you have only had orders of 500 so far. did we get a lot of action? >> we have a little bit of work to do through the end of the year, that we have a lot of active campaigns going on, and we did see quite a lot of activity. elliott: will you hit that target? >> i am confident we will continue to get a lot of that activity through the end of the year. elliott: gulf carriers account -- one third of aircrafts has the central gravity permanently shifted here to this part of the world, in terms of all different kinds of business? >> the gulf carriers have done a
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phenomenal job of growing a new business model and connecting passengers all over the world. they have done it through these very large hubs the middle east, -- hubs in the middle east. we project they will continue to grow above the worldwide average, and we think it will be a great opportunity. elliott: the center of gravity is here. >> we see that going forward, absolutely. elliott: now let's talk about what happens in the wake of the crash of the airliner over sinai. how do you brace yourself in the wake of that? heartedusly, our prayers go out to the victims and their families of the incident in sinai. we do not want to speculate on exactly what happened with that incident. we will leave that up to the
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authorities. but first and foremost, safety is the most important thing in aviation. it is one of our primary focuses, and we are going to work very hard to make sure that whatever the cause of this is, we will work very hard to make sure that they don't occur in the future. up security for airlines -- is that incumbent upon air makers, or upon eirlines such as qatar, whos dreamliner we can see in the background? >> it is everybody's responsibility in the aviation market. the airports and authorities around the world, to work together, to make sure that aviation is as safe as it can be. elliott: there are a couple of companies out there, in the u.s. and other hubs, allowing planes know that is not being
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suggested, as the cause of the crash in egypt, but is something like that something boeing would consider? >> yeah. at this point in time, those are not typical things we would look at in a commercial airplane, but obviously we will look at whatever enhance we can possibly justify going forward. that would be a big step. elliott: if you talk about your building and midsize plane, and no longer producing the 757, is that how you are planning for budget planes? >> we are still in the exploratory stages, trying to determine what the market size is, and what our customers are demanding. but clearly we have been talking to lots of customers around the world, and there seems to be quite a lot of interest in an airplane slightly larger than our 737, with slightly more
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range but not as much capability is the 787. we have had tremendous success, and we are looking for other opportunities for our customers to grow. elliott: finally, one of the big selling points for the dreamliner was efficiency. and now we have oil prices much lower. does that make airlines less keen, because they might be more expensive? >> well, one of the things we know about airlines as they are always looking for the most efficient the and most environmentally friendly opportunities. that hasn't changed with fuel prices. they will be extending the life of some of their older airplanes, but with low fuel prices they have been making lots of money, overseeing growth of the industry. that provides demand beyond what you would normally see. elliott: the senior vice president at boeing, thank you so much. manus, plenty more to come from
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me at the dubai air show, but for now, back to you in london. manus: you get all the lovely winter cakes, and that -- winder gigs, and i get sent to a bridge in zurich. well done. dubai air show, a great spectacle. up next, lufthansa strikes again. we bring you the latest updates on the walkout at thei europe's second-largest carrier. ♪
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manus: welcome back. this is "on the move." i'm manus cranny. a busy morning so far, kicking off a fairly busy week. here are some of the data we will be keeping our eyes focused on. trade data in china, and chinese cpi data comes out onto the, followed by industrial production on wednesday. that whole china story begins to build momentum. later in the week, mario draghi's big issue. the fed may be going one direction but what does it say for draghi? out.one data due friday, we get another update on the u.s. economy, this time about the retail side. 70% of the united states of america is driven. it is almost, almost as big as
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the non-farm payrolls data. one other thing we will be watching intently today -- the resurrection of a brilliant moment in a market. posted by mark barton, here in london, along with betty liu in the united states. it starts at 4:30 p.m.. i am channeling the last words. mark: it has been a while. you were there last time. sadly, it petered out, but it is back. partner, mainly between betty and myself, a well-known anchor in new york. the idea of the show is to showcase our european talent, and that is not just me or you -- that is our talent in all our bureaus in europe, in the middle east, and in africa.
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i had to dig deep for this next part -- we have 850 reporters in emea. we have 62 bureaus. we have 22 cameras. is aim on the european close to go to those bureaus every day. we can't go to all of them but we will try to go to two every day to showcase our big stories of the day, as well as a guest on set. vaelentin marinov. the aim is, yes, we want to give you the european close, we want to showcase our talent, not only on-air talent but off their talent. -- but off-air talent. our economists, our analysts. there are a lot of them and they are good and we need to hear from them. manus: i think it is fantastic. you think of the equity team that we have built up in london,
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thebra aiken, historic moment -- there are primers now on the bloomberg terminal. you will be able to tap into the zeitgeist. you will be able to go to our bureau in brazil, all around the world. mark: and i have a treat for you. segment. this was in the last third, battle of the charge. italy is wielding out there chartmeister. he is a real chartist. he loves his charts. i choose my chart of the day . joe chooses his. betty is the judge. whose chart is better? europe versus the united states.
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don't miss it. 4:30. welcome.ways manus: good luck. up next is "the pulse." ♪
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manus: avoiding another lehman moment. trillionll of $1.2 under the financial stability board failure. cameron's dilemma. we hear from the u.k. prime minister this hour as he tries to balance domestic and european demands to avoid a brexit. lonmin its shareholders for more than $400 million in a cash fall to stop rallies.

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