john: with all due respect to jeb bush. this is how presidential politics works. sometimes you just go take a chance. ♪ john: on the show tonight, rubio prices go -- passes go. almost 24 hours since

the candidates exited stage right in milwaukee. how do they do? superduper well. you've had three strong debates. you think this was your best? >> i thought it was great. i thought it was a terrific debate. donald trump: people are saying i won the debate. if you are dizzy that may be because of all the postdebate spin. in your official record of the you scored everyone atween the d-in a beaker -- d-and a d+. mark: we now have a big four. trump and carson are the front runners numerically.

rubio have dominated and havetwo debates increasingly clear paths to the nomination on the calendar. for hisutside that big going to have to fight their way in. john: i totally agree with that. the question was, what apple carts might get upset? none of the clashes materialized. foxbusiness folks who conducted the debate didn't let it happen. managed to skate through this thing last night. i thought of these problems might keep going. more last night, i am

convinced that they may just fade away. mark: i thought the establishment guys could emerge to be finalists. big fournk that the may be so entrenched that there is only room for one. if rubio could take that slot so strongly, none of the other guys may have a chance. are one of those other guys, you have to think about how you emerge as one of those candidates. john: based on the debate, the only one who can claw his way and is chris christie. i saw nothing from jeb bush. mark: that is premature. those other guys have big assets .

john: but it is card to claw in.r way a bush was better they he was in boulder but not fantastic. one of the big arguments that emerged was about electability. k second bush should both made that case. chris christie: i have one in a blue state. i have one of the state has more democrats than republicans. : when we run against if we run against.

bush: to send those immigrants back is not possible. it would tear communities apart. they are doing high-fives in the clinton campaign. mark: we will get to hillary in a minute. is this electability argument a strong one for these three guys? john: i think is not a strong argument. in this republican party, with the mood that they currently have, you don't see those kind gaining traction.

they see it as trimming. it sounds like moderates who were making excuses. mark: we see this every four years and the establishment always wins. kristi was talking about the new jersey economy. he has got a total case to make. kasichain bush -- and bush can make the elected to the argument. right now the guy who was

for writing the electability train without even talking about is marco rubio. between his youth and the hispanic background, the other guys have a hard time making the case that they are more electable than marco rubio. mark: john kerry was given up for dead 2004. but he made the electability argument for the democratic party and it got him the nomination. john: here to provide an instant fact check was the clinton press secretary. you think those people in brooklyn really were high-fiving? and were they right? there's a lot of rhetoric in the republican debates that is hurting them with the voters.

the democrats don't have to stoke it. i think hillary's people were high-fiving. james carville thinks rubio is the only republican who can win. and i know other people in clinton's campaign who do not think rubio would be the hardest to be. john: on immigration and taxes, mainstream candidates are being dragged over to the right, to a place where they don't want to be. mark: one of the electability arguments that jeb bush wants to make has to do with rubio and abortion.

the clinton people can do what bush did in 2004 and what obama did. when we come back, the rise of marco rubio. what i was told about the question of age. our pick for the most absurd and fraudulent lyrical theater of the day. political theater of the day. we will be back in one minute.

mark: rubio is now the front runner for many in the establishment. uninjured in some of his most vulnerable moments. let us start with ted cruz. he was thinking of rubio as he held forth on immigration. : if we join the democrats as the party of amnesty, we will lose. i understand that when the mainstream media covers immigration, it doesn't often seen as an economic issue. americans, is a very personal economic issue.

mark: the two biggest questions are how vulnerable is rubio? and how will we defend himself? on immigration, he was taken from all sides. will say he once was for copperheads reform. is honorable. he has the problem that you just identified. he has been on every side of the issue. he pleases no one. no one is really ready to defend them. he doesn't have a real explanation for how we went from where he was to where he is now. it puts him at a great vulnerability with the republican base. mark: rubio has a lot of political skill. when they are attacked, they don't just play defense. a play offense. -- they play offense.

i think rubio does have to worry about the likability question. john: how can you get through this nomination fight and fend off attacks from the far right on this issue while still emerging in a place that doesn't render you unelectable with hispanic voters. ? mark: he skated on it last night. it is coming back. start, it willds mention immigration. john: ted cruz taking a shot at marco rubio. ringing up these sugar subsidies. ted cruz: i put up 25 programs

today that i would eliminate. corporate welfare like sugar subsidies. farmers farm on less than 1% of the farmland in america yet they give 40% of the lobbying money. this is why we are bankrupting our g kids and grandkids. john: on good morning america rubio defended his position. rubio: i am prepared to get rid of the sugar program. in all the other countries that grow sugar also have subsidies. when they get rid of heirs, i am prepared to get rid of ours. i'm not going to wipe out an american industry that happens to have a lot of workers in

florida. guys face-off, the style will matter more than the substance. driver onharder style, but we got a preview of how rubio responds. better ofo to get the those exchanges? john: i have not seen a lot of corporate welfare attacks work very well. americans who don't think a lot are not bothered by subsidies. because you can make the argument the argument you are defending an american industry. it is not a hot button issue

like immigration. mark: the age-old question of is he too young at 44? them -- hielped that obama is oftenm derided as i think that someone in his 40's will be fine. i could've done it. i will not say that.

>> we've had young leaders in america before. and they've done great work. the job of president is a much more daunting task than we've ever seen. let's put it this way. the more experience the better. i was leader it at that. it is both a positive and negative. john: if he continues reform a problemit will be for him and all. it could be a huge asset. he doesn't have a lot of margin for error. people can seize on this and it could be a big problem if he comes across as young and callow. if the guy he is matched up with at the end has a way to

exploit it, it could be his biggest vulnerability. john: nobody else he's competing with has a huge amount of experience. up, reinhold hunt junior and his hot take on last night's debate. after these words from our sponsors.

john: the focus of last night's debate was on economics. we thought it would be good to

consult an oracle on that topic. in rdc bureau, albert hunt junior. our, let's take a look at a contentious moment. >> the family is important, but i want to rebuild the american military. the world is a stronger and a better place when america wields power in the world. how is it conservatives to add such an expenditure to the federal government? a trillion dollars in military spending. if cannot be a conservative you keep promoting new programs that you are not going to pay for.

we can't have an economy where not safe. there are radicals in around trying to get a nuclear weapon. place whens a safer america is the strongest military power on the face of the earth. john: i thought that was one of the most interesting exchanges of the debate. hunt: i think marco rubio the better of that john. earlier, a move been a much closer contest. the country was sick of wars and foreign adventures. but there are new threats arising, as senator rubio noted last night. rubio really is the new dick

cheney. he's got the views and a lot of the cheney people. more fundamental question will be without also prevail in the longer this contest. i am not sure that the dick will prevail. ted cruz says let's go in and not the heck out of them but i don't want to do a nationbuilding. economy, who presented the best case for themselves? hunt: this may shock you, but my answer is john kasich. his budget and tax plan is the only one that really holds together.

the others do not have plans like that. john: what you think was the biggest flub of the night? interesting one made a mistakez on the five agencies he was going to eliminate. rick perry could remember them. crews said commerce twice. but it showed how quick he was. and they talked about the sugar subsidies.

mark: the other fight they had was on the bank bailout. should banks be too big to fail? who got the best of that? hunt: i think ted cruz did. a lot of people hate big banks and hate wall street. when ted cruz said no, no more bailouts, i'm not sure it's a realistic policy but he won over the crowd with it. mark: ted cruz is touching on the hot buttons of the party right now. is there any position where he is vulnerable? hunt: i'm not sure he's vulnerable within the base at all. it's a different question about the general election.

nobody sees better from the head. begin toes not approach marco rubio it comes to speaking from the heart. john: al hunt speaks from both the head and the heart. thank you. counting down the weeks before the voting begins. candidates -- one of the candidates going to do during those weeks. what are the candidates going to do during those weeks?

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here to speculate with us, ben ginsberg. out in l.a., bill carrick. ben, let me start with you. moving into this new phase of the campaign, what do you think these candidates are going to be focused on as we head into the holidays and into a time when debates may matter a little bit less. ben: absolutely the time where they need to target their states and target their voters within the states to be sure those voters are going to come out and vote for them. there will be a lot of messaging geared at particular segments of the republican primary electorate, especially in iowa, new hampshire, south carolina, and nevada.

mark: you have spent a career making a lot of tv ads. you have seen jeb bush ads not move his numbers in the right directions. would you think you could drive poll numbers in the early stages with paid media on television? bill: it is very hard to do it with early media. people about success late with media. early media seems to evaporate. having firepower on the media site at the end is very important. what we saw, hard to get a message across, having big rating points at the end is what matters. mark: what does the end mean? how do you break through that?

bill: it means the last month, basically, is when you need media. that includes social media, radio, cable, anything you can buy. the other thing, super pac's are going to pay much higher rates than the candidates are. john: the way the republicans think, i am curious how soon you think mr. rubio is going to start to see a lot of negative incoming over the air that bill was talking about. when does that start? ben: about six weeks from iowa, maybe mid-december for a pre-christmas present. it will be a very heavy january for the negative.

john: some hints in the press that mike murphy is going to be moving away from the positive strategy, famous for his negative advertising history. >> that is sort of the more proven pattern. the march 15 florida winner-take-all primary, if you are jeb bush or marco rubio, you have to win that. does that affect the amount of dollars you have early on? mark: on the republican side, ted cruz is more focused on iowa than new hampshire. chris christie is focused on new hampshire. but they continue to visit the other states. is it smart for them to keep

hedging their bets? bill: i think since 1988, what we have seen in both parties, iowa and new hampshire tend to be one campaign. if you are in iowa, you will get covered in the boston market and the new hampshire markets. new hampshire, you will get covered in iowa. it is inevitable. you have to think of that as one campaign. you have to make sure -- one thing about the early timing, back in 1988, when dick gephardt won in 1988, we went on the week before christmas in iowa on television. we were the only ones on by ourselves. you have to think out-of-the-box. about the super tuesday, you

have to think out-of-the-box about what markets you will target and where you will play. we have seen people do that cleverly in the past and we have seen people bungle it. mark: should chris christie keep going to iowa or focus on new hampshire? ben: i was new hampshire are going to be as much about exceeding expectations as they are about winning the state. that is a function of the calendar changing. much harder to put it away and a burst of momentum for chris christie finishing fourth in iowa will carry over into new hampshire. same if jeb bush exceeds expectations. john: let me ask another one of these double-barreled questions. ben carson, donald trump,

clearly the head of the pack. what do those two guys who campaigned in nontraditional ways, what do they need to do between now and say christmas? what ways would you advise them to change their approach? bill: i think last night, we saw a little evidence that this is getting out of his box. this is moving pretty fast. the growth of rubio and cruz as communicators is putting him in a bind. last night, when we shifted to substance, when they did that, it advantage ted cruz and rubio. the velocity was a little bit much for trump last night.

we will see if he is capable of running the campaign as opposed to being the circus coming to town. i never thought he would disappear overnight. i was that he and carson are likely to disintegrate gradually. john: if you were advising those two guys, would you say, time for some retail politics. time to spend time on the ground. ben: i am not sure they will be in trouble, but i would spend more time on the ground. one of the things about there only being one republican debate between now and christmas means substance being tested is not likely to come. both trump and carson have shown themselves to be able to put on big events to attract large crowds.

there being only one debate for six weeks will spell this out to great detail. mark: a couple of weeks ago, we did focus groups and new hampshire, a lot of people thought bernie sanders would win the primary. what does bernie sanders need to do beyond this question of hillary clinton's inevitability, to position himself to win iowa or new hampshire? >> this goes for both parties. ben said carson and trump have been able to draw big crowds. you have to draw little crowds in 99 counties at each precinct in iowa. but they better all be organized. we have to see if sanders is organized. are they going to be organized at the precinct level?

it is a hell of a task. this is a campaign nobody has run before. we know they come from states like texas and florida where that does not really matter. that is a big test for all of these candidates, how will they organize iowa? john: there is a debate on the democratic side coming up in iowa this weekend. if you are advising bernie sanders, how negative to go and how to be negative, what is your advice to him if you are doing debate prep with bernie sanders? >> it is pretty clear that he does need to draw a contrast. you asked the question about negativity on marco rubio, it is

a similar question about mrs. clinton. if you are bernie sanders, you need to change up the current dynamics of the race. the classic way to do that is through negative advertising and drawing contrast and debate. if he really wants to win, you will see that. mark: what would you list as hillary clinton's three biggest vulnerabilities against bernie sanders on issues? >> he obviously has done a good job of positioning himself as anti-wall street, playing into the anticorporate feelings in the democratic base. because of secretary clinton's history and the democratic party and knowing a lot of people who are very generous donors, she has some vulnerability. organizationally, we don't know if they will make the adjustments. they really have to focus.

she has a pretty good temperature. she is pretty cool right now. she has to maintain that. that will be difficult because i totally agree with ben, the big challenge for bernie is he will have to draw a contrast, he will have to make this a choice. john: i have been studying those beards this entire segment and i cannot decide which one is better. let's call it a tie. how will the secret service protection change the campaigns of mr. donald trump and dr. ben carson?

♪ mark: milestone day on the presidential campaign. donald trump and ben carson got a little bit larger today, both men took on secret service details. their codenames -- mogul for trump and eli for carson. josh king, former white house director of production with the clinton administration. donald trump has security and

his own private plane. ben carson has had a low key operation. how is the rhythm likely to change? josh: they are different candidates from what i have worked with. it is a mixed blessing. for people who work close to the candidate, and i started by driving paul and jean simon all around new hampshire in my own rental car, it is a certain loss of intimacy with the person you knew for six months. on the other hand, for a guy like ben carson and certainly donald trump, it is a symbolic lift for them. the very appearance suggests a certain authority they did not have 24 hours earlier.

the service, although they are doing such an important job, and they would not be there until secretary johnson determined the threat level was high enough to warrant them, makes it look like a real campaign. the one thing donald trump did not have going for him, he now has, which is the u.s. government has determined this gentleman is important enough and threatened enough to warrant this kind of protection. john: talk about the symbolism. i am thinking about how retail politics work. hillary clinton goes to the iowa state fair and she is trying to move and she cannot move more than a few feet. what is the downside? josh: it is not just the secret service is the problem.

president clinton would say, we may be done on the official schedule, but we will work this quiet event. the service knows how to work that. a couple of guys behind, a couple of guys in front. the detail leader on your shoulders. it did not prohibit him from reaching out and grabbing as many hands as there were to offer. i feel for secretary clinton when she goes to the iowa state fair and because of the crush of interest in her, it is impossible for her to move relative to the way it is for marco rubio or ted cruz. it is about whether these people want to really reach out. whether they want to say, let's go get a beer.

mark: do they ever say, no, you cannot do that event? josh: the service will do anything they can do to bring the candidate's wishes home. once the last event on the schedule is done for the day, they are back to the hotel or their homes. mark: if ben carson wants to go out to dinner tomorrow night without his detail, can he? josh: once secretary johnson assigns the detail, it is verboten to lose them. as you guys know, once a candidate is finished, once they make their concession, they are back into rental cars. mark: our brand-new segment,

with no due respect. we call bs on the most fraudulent political theater of the day. ♪

john: welcome back. we do stick our tongues in our cheeks whenever we say the name of the show. but now we turn things around. we even made a graphic for it. this comes courtesy of two of last night's debate participants -- donald trump and carly fiorina. donald trump: if putin wants to go in, and i got to know him

very well -- carly fiorina: i have met him as well. in a private meeting, not in a green room for a show. john: trump says he was stable mates. that is a pretty big stable. as for fiorina -- >> i met him in beijing. we were in sort of a green room setting, two of us were giving a speech at a major economic conference. the two of us were sitting in a chair like this about this close for 45 minutes.

john: my question for you, first of all, why must these people who are famous and accomplished, why must they embellish the truth of their encounters with vladimir putin? mark: the trump one is ridiculous. it had nothing to do with any real association. with carly fiorina, she has boasted about her relationships with world leaders. to say there is a distinction between a green room for a tv show versus a green room for a conference. it was a longer meeting, but man, what a ridiculous boast. john: whether donald trump and vladimir putin met on "60 minutes," whether carly fiorina met him in a green room, what

does that prove about your ability to be president of the united states? what does it prove about your ability to negotiate, stare down putin? mark: she sized him up over the danish. john: i find the whole thing preposterous on a grand scale beyond the obvious lies. it makes no sense to me. that is our new and sure-to-be-back segment. we will be right back. ♪

mark: that debate last night was a lot of things. how to describe it? donald, can you help me out? donald trump: it was an elegant evening. the moderators were elegant. i thought it was a very elegant evening. it was elegant, and elegant debate. it was an elegant evening. john: the word is elegant. until then, sayonara. ♪

quick she founded a genetic testing company on one big idea, to create a dna database so big and could single-handedly move science forward, even help cure deadly diseases. but in 2013, a near disastrous lull. had to ceo anne wojcicki face a very public divorce him her husband, google founder sergey brin.