for syngenta. that is your morning brief. that is what we will be focused on for the next hour. european equities are set to open. we thought a selloff in the u.s. and a selloff in asia. their worstcks had day in six weeks. they are heading towards their worst weekly decline. the damage, look at if there is any, across the european equity markets. we have that growth number in line with estimates for france. in the previous quarter, the dax 1%.down 2/10 of

that is how the stock market is shaping up. let's take a look at the u.s. dollar. it is headed for its worst weekly locked in a month. yesterday, that officials reiterated a preference for a rate rise this year. policies should only rise gradually when they start to raise interest rates. the dollar is trading pretty flat around now. if we move to commodities as well, it has been a bad week. we have seen them drop to their lowest levels since 1999. the concerns over china are driving that. the crude is flat now. it was moving down earlier. brent crude is actually

rebounding. it is still below $45 a barrel. copper is continuing its losses. industrial metals have had a hard weekend some have fallen to their lowest levels since 2009. copper has another set of weekly losses. manus: that copper is something to watch. here is what is happening in "on the move" this friday. draghi foreshadows the gdp relasease. crisis. we break it all down. is in. -- neil atkinson donald tusk calls david demand a tough

sell. as cameron showed it to the city? day. gdp both france and germany have gone in at 0.3% growth in a the third quarter. let's speak to hans nichols, standing by in a berlin. of a relief in terms of what is going on in germany. blindinglyis not a good number. it is really think because we thought there may be a slowdown in china. a lot of negativity and uncertainty have been in greece for the third quarter. the third quarter expansion is down slightly from the 0.4% we had in the second quarter. we don't have an exact breakdown. that it ise hints in

largely consumer spending driven. they are concerned with exports. and you look at some of the big ports, they do about three of containers, they expect a 40% decrease in container traffic. there is a slowdown in china. switch to france. it also comes in at 0.3%. sowas 0% last time, flat broke. most of the spending increase, a little on consumer spending, but most of it is inventory restocking. on their trade side, they are down 0.7%. if that occurs on the german side, where you have negative drag on the trade side, it could be a indication that the fourth-quarter numbers will not be as strong. we will see some effect of all of the spending for refugee

housing and refugee care. it has been a mini stimulus and could boost the numbers. we give italy 50 minutes and then the entire eurozone a gear figure in two hours. manus: thank you for breaking that down. hans, thank you very much. the stock opened up over 11%. the china national chemical is in talks to buy the pesticide maker syngenta. syngenta batted away the original offer. that is your price check on one of your biggest stock movers of the day. the asset management cio up

of jpmorgan is here with us. a martian landed on this planet, they would end up in a terrible state of affairs. struck by how lousy the economy looks when somebody like 3/10 ofts giddy about 1%. where in this environment growth will be slow. inflation will be very low the path of normalization by the fed will be gradual. it could be a policy error. it will be offset by policy stimulus coming out of other central banks. manus: you were in the green roo m. fascinating that he said, growth is so fragile at the moment. the real growth in the world is

3%-three .5%. are gettinghinks we back to 5%-6%, is deluded. deflation, slowdown in china, and the poultry recovery and europe. >> people like him, i listen to. they are involved in a lot of businesses in a lot of parts of the world. they are selling their advertising space and their media presence. lot fromand hear a every industry imaginable. i think he is right. we are stuck in this sub trend growth. i don't think we are returning to above trend growth for a while. warned in terms of the core inflation. carney downgraded last week the

andth and inflation targets warned on inflation being delayed. goinghat as your mind set into 2016, how do you look at the world? have you position for that? >> i thought yesterday was a wonderful day to look at central thinkers. what i saw was less about, thinking about growth and gdp in each region, and more about caring with one another -- pairing with one another. we had many speakers talking about normalizing rates and a path to recovery. meantime, we had draghi trying to offset that. notbank was talking about really looking to raise rates in the immediate future. manus: you and i were both around in 1994. a variety of moments in time.

are you expecting high volatility? convulsed high volatility, higher volatility in 2016? >> god, i hope not, but it is quite possible. we should talk about the transmission mechanism through the banks and the lack of liquidity in the bond markets. the policymakers know that. that is why they are trying to be transparent and guide the markets carefully. 1994, if growth and inflation start to get away from them, they can start sell ing 50 basis points. manus: we don't have that problem. i am just trying to be optimistic. you are going to stay with a for

the next couple blocks. that is bob mckenney from jpmorgan. up next. central banks set the tone, and dictate the market moods. we break it down, next. ♪

commodity bloomberg

index is at its lowest levels since 2099. chinese stocks have fallen the most in the six weeks. u.s. crude is lingering below $42 a barrel. germany slowed in the third quarter. china had a slowdown in emerging markets. 0.3%, havinged to increased 4/10 of 1% in the last quarter. the country is on track to deliver its strongest four-year performance since 2011. of 1% after0 installing in the previous quarter. we heard from a chorus of fed oices throughout the

day yesterday. mario draghi struck a tone. said theed officials time for policy regulation is approaching. >> we should move the policy settings closer to normal levels now that the goals have been obtained a. there is no reason to continue to experiment with extreme policy settings. equally consistent with the data. >> there is also some evidence to suggest inflation underations are othe downward pressure. some expectations are at the low end of the ranges that we have seen in recent years. >> downside risk stemming from global growth and trade are

clearly visible. moreover, inflation has somewhat weakened, mainly due to lower auto prices and the delayed exchangef the stronger rates seen earlier in this year. asset let's bring the manager from jpmorgan back in the conversation. if elected the chorus of voices from the fed, give me your interpretation. charles evans spoke about a gradual raise, but nothing above 1%. bonds are the worst performers. in portugal, the bonds have performed horribly. >> i think you are saying and to focus of the debate

on the path of normalization. i like to say that we are in an environment of lower for longer and the path to normalization is going to be more shallow. how you back that into pricing the bond market is interesting. -- i happentinct to think bonds are a buy here. to me, it is pricing in a rate, that will be 2.5%. manus: that makes sense. at 2.5%, and you are on your way. ofif you lead at the summary economic projections, a lot of people see the infamous dots out 3.5%.at the next focus now is 2%. that seems reasonable. tothe fed is targeting

present inflation, then why not get to the 0% rate. to get lot for the fed off of 0% and the market reacted badly. manus: if we go along the road we just laid out, and we have the lack of inflation, it is excellent for fixed income. in the u.s., we would get to around 1.5%. is that overstretching? at 2.5% atthe bonds the moment? fed and thehe employment data shock the market. raise rates in september and you had a very strong employment. the most you can do is get the 2.3%.r treasury to

now, people are seeing commodity prices crash again. there is slowdown across asia and the rest of the emerging markets. they are seeing the european data come in on the soft side. now we are thinking, do i want deposit rates to drop another and collectpoints more negative yield, or should i put that back into the market again? anddifference from 2.38% 1.5% is not that far. when the fed begins to raise rates, we will stabilize the long end of the curve because of the dollar will take off again. a 10 year high, the fed for a test with it. obsessed and rightly so.

my question to you is this. hikes.n to normalize give me your view on that. this next leg in the dollar, is that not a wary? -- not a worry? >> i think a one and done in the an enormouse disappointment and i don't think that's what the fed is looking for. i think they are looking to get to a meaningful level on rates. something where they put some yield in the front end of the market and don't penalize savers. if things roll over again, they have something other than in conventional tools in the market. why shouldn't we, for the next 10 years, looking on a rolling tenure basis, always be setting new highs on the dollar.

i have been doing this since 1981. manus: sally fisher said, if we hold back on raising rates, we have tampered with the dollar. >> of course you are wary. i get a lot of questions in europe. i think we are going to knife through that. it is not going to happen with the first increase. i actually think, if i look at how the dollar has appreciated, versus the euro, we were trafficking at 111-112. if the fed raises rates and we have more accommodation out of the ecb, mabye 103. and then, we should wait and see what the fed is waiting to do

now. and then, you start to drive the dollar a bit higher. manus: you have just played poker with goldman's. you have raised them. i like your style. .92 in 2016? >> i don't think so. we are in an election year in the u.s.. that has to factor into the path that the fed uses to normalize. that does not mean that they and 2016,e rates that's a more likely mean that by the time they get to june, they will step aside and let the elections run. manus: it was great to have you with me this morning. you can come back the next time

you are in london. that is bob michael. up next, sowing the seeds for the future. we have the latest with what is going on in china and syngenta. the stock is literally on the move. ♪

manus: i am manus cranny and

this is "on the move." yill the chinese company bu syngenta? this stock is rocking. 11%.ened up will they do the deal? reporter: for the moment, syngenta has rejected the current offer. people that it was too low and it talks about regulator hry hurdles as well. at abouted syngenta $42 billion. earlier this year, they rejected a $47 billion bid. the two sides, syngenta and chem china, are still talking. syngenta is still keeping its

options open and talking to other parties. let me show you the share price. it is spiking here, up as much as 11.3%. this is where we saw the shares spike and then drop again by about the same. about an 18% drop when the bid was withdrawn. this will be the biggest takeover of that european company by a chinese company. it is important for china because if the deal goes ahead, it will boost its position in the global agricultural industry just as a nation importing more food. they have a growing middle class and have more people to feed. back to you. manus: thank you very much. in crisis.ude

we talk about the black gold. that is all ahead of the december opec meeting. ♪ the only way to get better is to challenge yourself,

and that's what we're doing at xfinity. we are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. and this includes our commitment to being on time. every time. that's why if we're ever late for an appointment, we'll credit your account $20.

it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. this is "on the move." two in terms of this equity market decline. we have lackluster growth in europe. gdp in germany rose by 3/10 of 1%. european equities are lower for a second day. look atve a individual markets. this plays into concern about the chinese slowdown. let's have a look at where we futures.rms of s&p

the cash market slips below its 200 day average for the first time in two weeks. the bloomberg commodity index is the lowest since 1999. it is a global glut. aboveve supplied running their five year average. at 86 year low. low.ve -- is at a six year slips to a five year low. we can see a little bit of a move in tenure government bonds.

what are the markets doing in the meantime? i will start with the gainers. up aboutwith syngenta, 9%. it has risen as much as 11.3% this morning. it stopped rocketing after reports came out with knowledge of the matter that chem china is in talks to take over syngenta. the offer valued syngenta at $42 billion. syngenta rejected that offer saying, it is too low. the two companies are still in talks and we could see an agreement in a matter of weeks. that stock is gaining off the back of that. rising. is third quarter earnings climbed

as the company cut cost at its phone and contracting operations. his priority remains a return to growth in 2016. rolls-royce is down for a second day. stock of, we saw the battered. of as ato be thought british industrial success story. that stock is down for a second day. yesterday, it fell the most since 1988. we have a decline of 3% today, which is nothing compared to the drop of 22% yesterday. manus: thank you very much. let's turn our attention to the global world glut. markets expanded by more than three times of the original forecast. opec says they are at the highest levels in ten years.

it does not make for good reading in terms of where we are in optimism. >> oil has been out of whack for a long time now. they have been close to a record high for a long time now. what is happening here is the market is getting nervous because it seems to be taking longer than many thought for the oil market to head toward any kind of balance. it is not happening yet. one of the factors behind that is, although in 2015 we had one of the best years in a long time in terms of oil demand growth, not be badwill either. on the other side of the

balance, we have supply. production, led by the growth in shale, has proved to be resilient. the numbers you were citing for 4l stocks, having fallen million barrels a day, has actually gone up for the last three weeks in a row. it is proving to be a tough nut to crack. there is the issue. i note you attend opec. is the price of oil issued in opec's own backyard. the position that, if you keep the non opecopec,

fumble. opec strategy. it is a saudi arabian strategy. it is taking for longer than they thought for the trend to go sharply downwards. it is proving resilient. when they gather december 4 in of vienna with the process ability that crude oil prices might be lower than they are today, they will have an additional factor on their agenda. that is the potential reemergence of iranian exports in the global market in the early part of 2016. more supply pressure. it might well be that the next opec meeting could turn out to be a bad tempered and testy

affair because there is a game changer here, which is iran. some analysts have thought, as into the more barrels export market, that could coincide with fewer barrels produced in the u.s. in the new world, it would not be as neat and tidy as that. iranian barrels to come into the market. risk suchlways other as some kind of settlement in libya, which would be a disaster for oil supply. there are a lot of issues. manus: you said it could be a bad tempered meeting. that tempers don't solve problems. >> of course they don't. one of the reasons it could be bad tempered is, one scenario put forward is, when the

iranians go, they won't know if they can for sure increase their exports and they may well say, we are going to be putting half a million barrels a day into the market at the first of next year and opec must take account of that. now is the time for opec to reinstate individual country output figures. if it is formally opposed, it has to be debated and formally accepted or rejected. thank you very much for being with us this morning. of course, he will be going to opec and hopefully, we will see you shortly after. we can find out who were the worst behaved. merits. the

many believe britain would be better off going it alone. ♪

manus: here of the bloomberg top stories. is tryingy chem china to buy syngenta. $42 made an offer at billion.

syngenta has rejected it, fighting regulatory risks. the two companies are in talks. porsche has announced will be a inall of nearly 9000 cars china. they will check for potential you will leaks. has promoted a record number of women to managers. bake out for 25% of the executives -- they account for 25% of the executives this year. they european union president has spoken for the first time. it will be very difficult to eu governmenty yea to agree to the terms. guarantee it will be

achieved by this year. >> this is why this matter was so interesting for me. say it will be very difficult. manus: this is bad news for cameron, and for businesses who want to stay in the eu. .mong them, martin sorrell >> the pattern of trade is with the eu. our major investments are made in the eu. brexit?or the answer is no. manus: the answer is no for martin sorrell. matt. bring in

you have spoken to a variety of voices in the city of london. where are we in the brexit debate? >> there is a very interesting division emerging. business and blue-chip numbers are surging. eere are many things in the thatu could be reformed. men, hedged of money funds, smaller asset managers, there is a bit of an out vote. we spoke about the outs of the yce and richard ti howard shore. manus: what comes through in those conversations? >> they are some that are out no

matter what. cane are others that say, i be in, but only if the eu were transformed into a trade block. the germans would never accept it. in practice, that ends up being out. there is a somewhat gauzy nostalgia. if those pesky europeans were not interfering in finance as they are now. this is a way to frame the story more positively. engagebritain were to more constructively with china and india, instead of worrying what france or germany has to say. there is a great story written this week. nirvana to be outside of the eu. you get sent to the litany of regulation and request. there is no room to lobby.

you want to remain on a trading basis with the eu. is where the argument gets hard to understand for some of the brexit. europe and the u.k. will want to have some sort of free trade arrangement. outhe norwegians have found and the swiss have found out, if you want the free trade access, you have to follow the rules. there is an article that made that point in regards to trade agreements. you do have this question, could britain get similarly favorable trade terms as a block when it comes time to negotiate a free trade deal with the u.s., which is the big prize. has 50 million people-60

million people. the eu has 500 million people plus. that is something brexit advocates have to explain clearly. how they propose britain will maintain these preferential trade arrangements in a post eu environment. i am sure we will be bombarded with questions. >> i am sure it is coming. we do have a brexit ticker on the bloomberg website. we don't have a special page yet, but there will be one. there four everybody out who has a bloomberg channel, make sure you go to the website. thank you very much matthew campbell. metals. to charts that do matter.

♪

manus: welcome back. this is "on the move." it is the last trading day of the week. wednesday saw the marriage of largest beerwo

makers. offer forillion sbmiller. sell a record $55 billion in bonds. gold hit a five year low and copper is at the cheapest level since 2009. that dropped to the worst losing streak since 2002. the mining companies were hit hard. american fell as much as 13%. draghi sees weakening inflation.

traders price the likelihood of a cut from the ecb at 97%. and itnce is the word will be the word of policy between the two banks. the week that was. indian prime minister is in london and he will meet david cameron at 9:00 a.m. we have all of the details. what can we expect? it is a walk with the prime minister that is on the cards. then, there will be a u.k. business forum at downing street and then tonight, celebrations at wembley stadium. this will involve tens of

thousands of indians a product. they are abroad from india in the u.k. that, the prime minister will also be meeting the queen. this trip is just as colorful as the visit from china a few weeks ago. it is not perhaps, as economically significant. we heard announced, 9 billion pounds and $13 million of deals. largeight sound like a number, but it is not as much compared to the $45 billion that were signed with china. these deals are across several industries and are supposed to safeguard, or create 2000 u.k. jobs. vodafone is investing 1.3 billion pounds in india. they are emphasizing the close

ties between the countries. the u.k. is the biggest investor in india. india is the third biggest foreign investor in the u.k., after the u.s. and france. it in best more in the u.k. then all of the other eu countries combined. that is the sum up of his first official visit to the u.k.. manus: thank you very much. i can't wait to see those pictures of the attendance and wembley stadium. that is one for david cameron to watch. other things we will look for. we will get the final eurozone gdp number at 10:00 a.m. showfrance and germany 0.2% growth this morning. -- 0.3% growth this morning. how do you read these

numbers? it is lackluster. that is the title of our piece on the bloomberg terminal. butual growth as the ec ponders what to do. bygrowth has been driven household consumption. real incomes have been boosted by the drop of oil. investment spending remains weak in both countries, as it has throughout the recovery. a drag on both numbers. that is the risk draghi warned about yesterday as emerging markets slow down. manus: it is all very heavy lifting and hard going. we were hoping for an uplift in this back quarter. things are reflective of a different period. there has not been that resurgence. this goes back to the heart of talking about, a

concern about inflation driving the currency lower. >> there is no resurgence. this is the same growth we will see in the third quarter. is 0.4%. the recovery is continuing, that's recovery is not strong enough to boost inflation. the ecb is willing to move to do something about it in the form of additional monetary stimulus. manus: when we talk about the ecb, what is the case? connected inoth the sense that the reason behind cutting is to increase the universal assets available for purchase by the ecb. they have this limit that they cannot purchase with yields below the deposit rate. we will see an increase in the purchases. manus: up next, we have "the

pulse." equity markets are lower. we are going to talk india. ♪

manus: europe follows asia into the red over concerns over the health of the chinese economy. another suitor for syngenta. maker jumpssticide on talks of a takeover. european growth concerns. german and french gdp piles pressure on mariota reiki to boost stimulus -- on mario draghi to boost stimulus. you are welcome. this is "the pulse" live from