the next 60 minutes. futures in london higher. 36 points.tures up nejra cehic has your market open. nejra: that potential december rate hike from the fed looking just as likely after those minutes. still pricing in that 66% probability of that happening. the key things were the statements that it would be a gradual pace of increases. you called it a dovish hike. it seems that's the way markets are interpreting it as well. let's take a look at equity markets. asia open higher. starting to look at what europe is going to do too. ftse 100 up almost 0.5%. still waiting for the dax to open. prettyequities close flat earlier. dax up 0.9%. let me show you the dollar.

highw it hit a seven-month earlier in the week. this is the dollar index down almost 0.3%. we've got to take a look at the way commodities have reacted to this. this has been a big story this week. starting with crude oil. wti, becausenymex, yesterday, we saw a drop below $40 a barrel for the first time since august. looking unchanged at the moment. it is above that $40 a barrel mark. gold rebounding. we did see it trades stronger this week, but it has come generally under downward pressure. it is up 0.5%. , butr trading pretty flat still near that six-year low. industrial metals have been punished this week. just to highlight some of the stocks we've been watching too, looking at thyssenkrupp, the

german steelmaker, it was proposed to increase its four-year dividend by 36% as profit rose in the 12 months through september. arcelor mittal, the world's biggest steelmaker said it is facing challenges because of cheap steel from china. thyssenkrupp shares coming under downward pressure today. finally, keep an eye on drugmakers. according to people familiar, pfizer is an advanced talks to buy allergan. that would value allergan, which makes botox, as high as $150 billion. that would be the biggest deal in the drug industry ever. keep an eye on shares like astrazeneca and shire. both these stocks have also been targets of potential acquisitions in the past. jonathan: thank you very much.

early data, but we have the dax up by 0.8%, the ftse up by 34 points. let's get your market reaction with juliette saly in hong kong. juliette: very positive session in the asian region on thursday. those minutes coming through from the u.s. fed boosting sentiment on wall street. we saw similar gains across our region. the shanghai market closing higher by almost 1.5%. a lot of companies hitting that daily limit of 10%. we also had a policy decision in japan. nikkei rising by over 1% at aipac. be sayingister al they are close to ending deflation. it was the australian share market that was a standout today , up over 2%.

that was led by a big game coming through in bhp billiton shares. , which yesterday fell below $20 a share, today were up by over 3%. the line holding its agm was questioned about that fallout in brazil. a lot of them said, can they afford to pay out dividends. semiconductor, a big gain , lifting the taiex. it was the best performer by index value on the msci asia-pacific index. softbank in japan, weaker. that was as the bank came through announcing a massive bond purchase sale and a lot of analysts saying softbank has to stop attacking the markets for cash. generally, a positive session in the asian region today. likewise in europe.

juliette saly, thank you. here's what's happening in today's program. said minutes suggest the center of gravity on the fomc is shifting towards a december hike. $40 crude, u.s. stockpiles increased. and, 2015 is set to be a record year for deals. the biggest since 2007. jpmorgan's cohead of m&a joins us later this hour. are the hawks taking over? federal reserve minutes reveal that most participants agreed conditions to trigger a rate hike could be met by december. dennis lockhart and bill dudley called up the u.s. economy. >> that's a good thing. that's not a bad thing. that's a sign the economy is returning to health. the federal reserve is getting

closer to achieving our objectives. i've often said over the last year or so, i really am looking forward to that day when we begin to normalize monetary policy. i view it as a good thing, not a bad thing. >> i expect the trajectory of policy rate rises to be dictated by the evolution of the economy and the balance of risks as you would expect. there won't be a predetermined path in my expectation. >> this is probably the most well advertised, discussed, thought about, mused over normalt of beginning a pace of monetary policy in history. when we do begin, i don't think it's going to be a huge surprise. i'm not looking for a big reaction. jonathan: let's bring in charles newsome, the winner of the city of london wealth manager of the year award.

you would never have told me that so i've done it for you. good to have you with us. december, i guess everyone is over it now. i don't see that in fed funds futures. for the market, maybe not. charles: i think december is almost inevitable now. i think the more interesting point is where the move is from there for investors. people have to think beyond that. it's going to the interesting to watch what they say when that happens. you can't take further rises too quickly as a given. investors start thinking this is the first of several, they are mistaken. jonathan: they would love to .raft a dovish hike are they going to be able to pull that off? charles: i can't see how they can do that. a hike is a hike to me. it seems marketing rhetoric to me. the case for raising rates here is not yet properly proven, i

don't think. maybe they're trying to get ahead of the game. the minutes gave you the impression that if you were moving too early, it might be more dangerous than moving too late. jonathan: these can before that blowout jobs number later in the month. when i look at these minutes, downside risks abroad have diminished, have they? the market reaction has changed, but have the risks diminished? charles: i don't think so. look at the crude price. e.m. is still suffering with commodities so week. , the jury isl still out on that. maybe the equity market has gotten more comfortable with rate rises. jonathan: the s&p 500, aggressive rally off that august low. we failed to set a new high.

what does that tell you about where we are? crossed,we haven't which is normally a bearish sign. if you follow those over many decades, your equity position will increase. you would have done very well. we've had a debt cross. look at the overall pattern of the s&p over the long-term, particularly in the last six months, you can make a good argument, we are in a big pattern. jonathan: great to have you with us. up next, crude. big move in the commodity market yesterday. below $40 a barrel. should producers brace for more pain? ♪

jonathan: good morning. good morning to the city. here are bloomberg's top stories. the bank of japan kept its monetary policy unchanged despite the economy slipping back into recession. the bank says its easing measures are having the intended effect. first trade its surplus in seven months. parisian prosecutors say information found at the scene of yesterday's rain suggests the gang who struck last week was preparing another attack. two people were killed and eight more arrested as police fired

5000 rounds during the operation. the suspected ringleader of the terrorists is not among those detained. police say they don't know if he's among the dead. bloomberg sources say pfizer is in advanced talks to buy allergan for as much as $380 a share. the deal would value the botox maker at as much as $150 billion in what would be the drug industry's largest ever deal. one of the top stories in markets yesterday, $40 crude. oil falling to the lowest level in almost three months as u.s. government data showed crude stockpiles expanded for an eight week. futures dropped below $40 a barrel for the first time in august. let's get more with our in-house energy expert, bloomberg's chief energy correspondent, javier blas. $40,reak below

fundamentals or just the fx market? javier: i think you have a huge headwind from the dollar. the fed clearly is going to raise interest rates. that is contributing to the weakness in oil prices. supply and demand is still pointing right now at too much oil. jonathan: i was listening to you earlier. they expected it to happen quicker. it has taken almost 12 months. i have the bart chart. on year production dropping for the first time in over a decade. javier: it is a big signal. this is the center of the oil boom in the united states. it was growing year on year for since 2004. in september, we had the first

drop in 11 years. that this iscation starting to work, damaging non-opec producers. it has taken a long time. opec were expecting in six months to have them on their knees. it is a year-and-a-half when they are beginning to bend. production remains high. some, youcharlie knew look at the energy majors, you just do that for another 12 months? charles: i think so. keep your readings very low. it is going to be difficult for them. more dividend cuts, i think, are inevitable. i think patience is the best way. sit on the sidelines. maybe keep small exposure if you need to, but be cautious. jonathan: $40 crude. i said the year was going to end with $40 crude.

i'm not a commodity analyst. we are back to $40. someone came back to me yesterday and said, look at the permian basis. javier: you have three major areas for shale oil in the united states. you have north dakota, and that is starting to drop. that is the eagle fort also coming down. in the border between texas and new mexico, you have the permian. their production is increasing. results.getting it is very difficult, but they are getting more oil and production is increasing. jonathan: of the oblast, my events of next month, maybe the ecb, the likelihood will be the fed. a boring opec meeting or one that matters? javier: i think it is going to be a black and white scenario.

that is what we are expecting. we have a huge surprise. the saudi's decide to cut production. we're going to have a relatively boring meeting for opec. what i think is over the next few weeks, we are going to have a lot of negative news flow from the oil market. we are expecting the saudi's to say, we are going to stay producing a lot of oil. we are going to have climate change negotiations where there's going to the a lot of negative headlines regarding hydrocarbons and fossil fuels. we have also the iranians starting to make the right noises in terms of the nuclear program. we saw yesterday the first signs of their nuclear facilities. those three elements are going to keep the markets thinking that more oil is coming and climate change probably long-term, not good for oil

prices. jonathan: final question to you, charlie. talking about state-level decisions. when we look at corporate decisions, you maintain output, that strategy, what is the feedback loop for that? charles: i think ultimately that will -- [indiscernible] they will not have sufficiently invested in their businesses and they will have to raise money from shareholders if they continue much longer. all you've done is paid out a big dividend and had to take money back from shareholders. jonathan: when is the by point? javier: for big oil, we are still early. we are at $40 oil. you look at the consensus for profitability, net income of big oil. than 2015. is higher the prices are not signaling that. we may start to see some analysts cutting the projection

for profit. that is going to probably drive equity prices down for companies like bp, shell, etc. jonathan: great to have you with us. blas will be joining us throughout the morning on bloomberg. charlie newsome will be staying with us. up next, we stick with commodities. shareholders meet in london to discuss whether to proceed with a deeply discounted issue. ♪

jonathan: welcome back to "on get to your top stock stories with nejra cehic. net dividendear , confident it can meet midterm targets and planning a share buyback program. that is the biggest gainer on the stoxx 600. investec, money manager in south africa and the u.k., said fiscal first-half profit rose 15% after improved performance from its banking unit. finally, thyssenkrupp. this is declining at the open. shares rebounding now. it proposed to increase its dividend. that missed the forecast, but the german steelmaker that brought -- but the german steelmaker did say that profit rose. we heard other steelmakers,

arcelor mittal, saying they are under pressure. jonathan: thank you very much. the lines also performing very well. glencore up almost 5%. decent performance from them. struggles, shareholders meeting in london to vote whether to go ahead with a deeply discounted multimillion dollar share issue. the move is a last-ditch attempt to stop the platinum producer from becoming the biggest casualty today. ryan chilcote is here. -- thee get that vote meeting itself starts in a little bit over an hour. all indications are that they will vote for the issue. there's three reasons for that. none of the big shareholders have publicly expressed any issues. them, with a stick under just 7%, has expressed support.

none of the big shareholders with more than a 3% stake have been around for very long. none of them were around a year ago. difficult for them to object to this steep discount. it doesn't really affect them. finally, no one seems to have a better idea. are that thiss right issue will go forward. jonathan: thank you for breaking that down. charlie newsome still with us. let's go through that headline. offering shares at a 94% discount. theoretically, if you are one of the existing shareholders in this company, would you have to buy into it? charles: i don't think you've got a choice. otherwise it looks like it is over for lonmin. i couldn't believe what the terms were. that shows you the signs of desperation by management. jonathan: you look at the commodity market as it stands.

doesn't matter what you do. if the good or service that you provide, if the price of that halves in 12 months, there's going to be casualties. are you surprised there haven't been more? charles: a little. i'm also surprised the senior management teams didn't see this coming. mining has always been a very cyclical business. the senior management teams have been there a long time. they should have known to be cautious. some of the prices they pay for these assets were extraordinary. they seemed to carry on buying. now, they seem to be pulling back as hard as they can. think some of the allocation of capital by these management teams, you have got to severely question and think, should i be putting more money towards these? jonathan: are you questioning

the existing strategy? charles: i do, i'm afraid. they are pulling back on capex to maintain dividend. i don't think that's a good idea. where is the point where charlie newsome says, i want some? charles: it is very simple. i look at the fundamentals long and hard. am i going to make money out of this over the long-term? i can deal with some pain in the short term. my final decision comes when i look at the chart and say, does everyone agree with me? is that evidenced in the chart? if there's no evidence, i quit. jonathan: charlie newsome of investec, the winner of the city of london's wealth manager of the year award. up next, poised for a record year of dealmaking. jpmorgan's cohead of m&a will answer those questions. ♪

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jonathan: good morning. welcome back to "on the move." i'm jonathan ferro in the city of london. about 30 minutes in today's session. ftse up by .9. the miners taking us to where we are this morning. the dax up 141 points. a decent pop this morning. the federal reserve. we went through the fx market and the commodities market as well. euro/dollar off a seven-month low. the b.o.j. despite a recession,

stimulus is working, apparently. crude oil at $40 a barrel. copper a low on copper this morning. elsewhere, big, big year for m&a. deal making so far this year, poised to match, even take over 2007. some of the strengths, remarkably it has come from asia. a decent report from jpmorgan. i'm pleased to say that we can talk about it. great to have you with us this morning. i was reading through your report. luckily you sent it to me. i read through it. i was thinking how confident they are and how many of them see themselves as net buyers. is that a key indicator? >> it is a key indicator. it has been a big year for m&a. the market globally is up approximately 40%. it has been driven by north

america, which is up 50%. asia is actually up 70%. in terms of deal volumes, they are up head-to-head with 1.32 trillion. it is a hell of a landmark that asia is caught one europe and therefore, you know, that has generated tremendous interest from our western clients in terms of how do asian companies think about deal making and m&a and what we figured is given the strength of our platform, we decided to go ahead and ask them directly how do they think about deal making? went out to 55 of our largest corporate clients and went to senior management and asked them what is important in m&a? first thing is no surprise. external growth via sma a critical part of their strategic thinking and their strategic agenda.

we found from a regional perspective they look to asia for growth and western markets for value-added products, services and technology. and looking at western markets, north america is an area of focus and in europe, in this order, it is germany, the u.k. and france. the other thing we found surprisingly is asian buyers are strategic in their thinking. what is interesting is in almost 50% of instances, they measure their success in m&a over a period of at least 10 years. and also critically in over 50% of incidents, the rates they use are up to no more than 10% and in many instances they don't actually use a hurdle rate all the. jonathan: the story you just told me, though, they look domesticically for growth. that is not a new story.

how long can that tail wind continue? >> i think that tail wind will continue. i do think as the middle classes -- it is a middle class in asia continues to grow, i think there is a greater consumer-led demand into asia and i think that company is trying to cater to that demand and looking for those value-added services and products to bring onshore. jonathan: i have a 6.9 g.d.p. figure from china. i look at the commodity market flashing this big red light and a question mark about demand and then i look at your report about the confidence of asian companies. what is the world that you see? >> the difference i just mentioned is you're looking at what is going to happen next quarter. what is going to happen next year. increasingly what we get from our corporate clients in asia, it is a 10-year cycle. not four quarter cycles.

jonathan: everybody wants to be a wealth manager and go into advisory. how competitive is that market and how different is it? >> it is a competitive market but frankly, we don't think there are that many providers of advisory services that can provide what a jpmorgan can in terms of knowledge across different markets and debt and equity markets and global tivity and access to a paramount network. we think it is a competitive market but we think we're in a good place in terms of services we can provide to our clients. jonathan: energy, miners, i was surprised that the only big deal i have seen in the extraction business is shell and b.g. what happened with that deal making? >> i think it is underpinned by confidence. unless the actors are not confident, they are unlikely to

gage in an acquisition and integrating a large deal. it is probably the one area where there is the least amount of confidence. i think it speaks to less activity in those sectors. we will see more deal making. jonathan: the conversations in meetings that you're currently having, does 2016 look like a repeat of 2015 for the moment? >> we remain bullish on the work that we're carrying out. the m&a market is linked to confidence. i can tell you that a couple of months ago when we saw the dislocation in the chinese market, there was concern about what would be the fallout and effect of that. i think we're still on course and i still feel good and bullish about 2016. jonathan: when i talk to the mining executives and energy executives, they want to spend some cash.

the prices people are demanding for their assets is too high. do we need some equilibrium where it comes down this year? >> not seven confident they want to sell at a price, buy at a different price. we needed greater reassurance and predictability. jonathan: you mentioned confidence. we talked about asia. they are incredibly confident. the u.s. market. i know the fx market won't make me decide whether i do or don't buy particular assets. if i'm in the u.s., i just got a steep discount. why don't we see them buying more european assets? >> i think there has been a fair amount of u.s. activity into europe. dwhroong -- i've never seen a c.e.o. saying i'm going to do a deal at a particular level but

it is a sweetener. on the margin, the fx will support additional activity and it is wub of the factors why -- one of the factors why we continue to be bullish. jonathan: you bullish. i speak to so many people and we get pessimistic. what are you excited about for 2016? what are you most excited about? >> i think i'm most excited about my own business, selfishly is that quarter-on-quarter, there is still not evidence that the economic recovery is imminent. from the perspective of m&a practitioners, our clients are aware of that and they want to supplement that conservative growth with external growth. we are in a sweet spot. on the one happened, there is an expectation of economic recovery. that is still not apparent,

quarter in and quarter out. that is where m&a comes in to supplement that lack of growth. jonathan: we talked about the fx market and this quarter-on-quarter approach to the market and what you think over the view and how your view changes. do your clients look at the federal reserve minutes? we talked about the fmp x markets greasing the wheels. is that something that doesn't? >> i have two points of view on this. the first one is the increments that we're going to see on any, you know, rate increases are going to be limited. i don't think they are going to have a massive impact in terms of cost of funding. i think in any event, i -- to me, the fact that rates are going up is a good thing. because if rates go up it is because economic recovery is on hold. it means more confidence and more confidence means more activity. fundamentally, i am recently

agnostic. i think the signal they give about optimism is good. jonathan: congratulations on another successful year at jpmorgan. up next on this program, a ratings boost for russia maybe. how a joint front with the west against i.s. could lead to an s&p upgrade. ♪

jonathan: good morning and welcome back to move. i'm jonathan ferro live from the city of london. 42 past the hour. the central bank says its record-easing measures are having the intended effects and the japanese economy continues its recovery. german steel maker proposed increasing its dividend as rofits rose. adjusted earnings rose 26% to 1.68 billion euros through september. payment process. square raised $234 million in its initial public offering. 1/3 less than it sought.

it was a similar story for match group and apps such tindr. they make their debut in new york later today. another top story this morning then as we speak. france prime minister is opening the parliamentary debate on the state of emergency bill to extend emergency powers of the french state following the paris terror attacks. we'll bring you the headlines from that particular statement throughout this hour and beyond on bloomberg. let's get out to hans nichols who is in the french capital. hans, we have heard from the french foreign minister this morning. what did he have to say? hans: he is indicating that they don't have any certainty on whether or not abdelhamit abaoud, the ringleader of the terrorist attacks, they don't

have certainty on whether the body recovered is indeed his. his body was so shot up it is difficult to tell. coming out of that investigation and that entire relationship, jonathan were 5,000 rounds were shots. zpwrefrpbleds went off. -- several grenades went off. a suicide bomber took her own life. there is no certainty on whether or not abdelhamit abaoud was indeed one of those victims, one of those bodies, not victims. on top of that, we have a return to commerce here in paris. the christmas market is open this morning. he said he has 137 leaders that still plan to attend the climate change summit. that is going to begin near a couple of weeks in paris. at the same time, there is very much a sense the investigation has not been brought to closure. we are waiting on the forensic

evidence. we are waiting on certainty on who has been arrested and who has been killed and who is still at large. jonathan? jonathan: hans nichols. much more from hans throughout the morning. the thank you very much hans nichols. let's keep it on topiced a president putin and the u.s. look poised to set aside their differences for a while and focus on fighting the islamic state together. our guest is the managing director of sovereign rates at s&p. he joins us from frankfurt. two big takeaways. one is the geopolitics. putin seemingly coming in from the cold. how significant is that to you? >> well, i think this may be the single silver line overing these atrocities that we witnessed about a week ago. this might create a platform for russia and the e.u., including the u.s. to come a bit closer

together again. the e.u. matters much more because the sanctions are much more damaging to russia as the european countries are a bigger trade and finance partner to russia than is the u.s. for the e.u., they have the refugee cryist sis and the other is -- crisis and the other one is terrorism. there is a growing understanding the syrian situation cannot be addressed, let alone solved without the participation of russia, which is now firmly a player in the region. this alone might bring them together. there needs to be an alliance. hollande is going to moscow next week. they are now on speaking terms, which is an improvement to what we had before. jonathan: it is an improvement but we're coming off a very low basis. what does it take to get from there to where we're in a position where we can think about repeeling the sanctions and what does that mean to you

and their credit rating? >> there needs to be the grand alliance that has been mentioned by both sides, actually it needs to happen. it needs to be -- getting closer to what the actual objective in syria is. obviously the joint objective of defeating isis. but that of course is a halfway house. because it still begs the question what is going to happen to syria? who is going to govern syria and what kind of political transition, if any, are you going to have? russia and the west are still pretty far apart. in order to get an agreement, the first step is to talk to each other. russia is keen to get an easing or lifting of the sanctions. my reading is that the kremlin understands pretty well that the key to lifting the sanctions is probably no longer in ukraine. it is now in syria. jonathan: here is a case study for you. let's say they start to repeal

the sanctions at the same time craud remains a it $-- crude remains at 40 a barrel. >> we already have sort of low oil prices. the budget of the russian federation is budgeted very conservatively. i think there is some room there. but clearly the key problem of the russian economy, and it has been before even the sanctions, for the last decade, is the lack of growth. the country needs to get to a higher growth and in order to do it it needs investment. that is quite clear. it is well below par in other emerging markets. the lowest in the g-20. without investment you will not have higher growth. then i think over the long-term -- this is where we rate the sovereign, to look at -- it is important to look at the oil prices. what is the long-term growth strategy of the country? that is still missing. that is why we have lowered the rating early they are year to a

noninvestment grade, dd-plus. jonathan: i mentioned there were two key developments in the last week. one is what's happening in putin and russia and the other, the security pact is more important than the stability psct. how closely are you watching that? is that credit positive or negative? >> it would be quite a stretch to say anything is positive. we had a terrible atross ty which has the potential of undermining consumer and havetor confidence and can anfect on tourism. it is demoralizing in the short term. the government is trying to do it utmost to protect its population. which government would not do

that? i don't think there is necessarily a tradeoff between security and budget consolidation over the medium term. i think there is no hirkei between these. the security situation is very forefront of yeeverpbes minds. we still have the challenge of bringing the public finances the a sustainable path and sf it has a problem now, it had a problem last thursday before the attacks and it still requires a solution. jonathan: thank you from all of us here at bloomberg for joining us on this program. up next on this program, everything you need to watch out for the rest of the day. it is all about reaction to the fed. more fed speak and e.c.b. accounts. ♪

jonathan: good morning. good morning from me, jonathan ferro. good morning to all of you across europe and in the city of london. fetsd up by 1% this morning. big gains from some of the miners. glencore. stock up by almost 5% this morning. that is your first hour of trading here in europe. here is your day ahead. 12: 30 we'll get the account over the e.c.b.'s latest policy meeting. later we'll hear from atlanta

fed president on the u.s. economy and fed vice chair stanley fischer will take the stage in san francisco later tonight. is there such a thing as too much fed speak? that question goes to my co-anchor. great to have you with us this morning. they are not mince. they are accounts. what are you looking for? charles: i think they have the potential to be very interesting. looking at the fed minutes last night, you can say fed fund futures have not moved. but what i think so is interesting from the fed minutes last night and what i will be looking for in the e.c.b. account today is the nuance and the robustness of the debate and what will be particularly interesting on the e.c.b. side is the market is now fully priced, 10 basis points cut in december. are the meeting accounts going bear that out?

are we going to get any pushback? the old trader in me looks at it and says the risk has to be maybe we get a bit of a pull back in that question. jonathan: i see two very different economies. we don't need to debate that. the u.s. versus europe. are they different because they want to do different things or shaped by a domestic view? the e.c.b. says increase. the fed says diminished. which one? richard: depends on who you ask. the domestic focus on either of the economies will naturally feed into what the impact of terges forces are. it has been quite striking that in the past two e.c.b. meetings, there has been really such a down -- like a downtrodden view of what is going on externally

and it contrasts quite sharply with the fed. i don't know who to believe. in december next month, the e.c.b. goes first. jonathan: that is it from me at bloomberg. ♪

francine: the hawks are in. the fed rate hike looks likely for next month. the jobs report on december 4. could crunch. oil trades around $40 a barrel. does the low price mean more qe for the ecb? the french do not know if the ringleader behind friday's attacks are -- friday's attacks is dead. ♪ francine: welcome to the polls. live -- welcome to "the pulse." i am francine lacqua. liftoff