u.s. stocks closing mixed this afternoon, a day after the s&p saw its best rally in four weeks. waiting on a fed, our guests says the u.s. economy is already prepared for a rate increase and has the charge to prove it. cory: what does this mean for markets? russia is a key player in the fight against islamic state. will leave harris attack spring the u.s. and russia closer? course of the markets, when you look at the major indexes across the board for the three major indices, i was looking at the dow jones industrial average -- less than 91 points, that is the smallest move this month that compares to the three-month average.

had a big rally, tuesday was quiet, yesterday was a big rally, today was quiet. confusing was what is , december is a go, that certain aspect classes that something different. short-termove the lines. the dollar was up. 30 year treasuries, looking at the longest rally since august. is this all just a lower for longer, even if we hike -- it will be a slower case than the market was anticipating, that is why we are seeing this. joe: you have heard the return of the dovish hike term today. we could get a hike, but there would be a signal of slow paces after. i want to dive into my terminal to talk about a major thing that happened in the market today. it is a big political and economic applications -- united health said it is considering

pulling out of obamacare. they would no longer offer insurance on the exchanges. it is not for sure, but they have been losing money. who are the big losers? the hospital stocks. the hospitals have had a huge run, they believed they would get more business, several big all got slams today by -- slammed today. all big drops on each of them. this is a big story that a major health insurance company is saying maybe not for us. scarlet: the question is what happens when these insurers pull out. who pays for people going to the hospital? joe: remaining insurers can raise their prices and be more profitable. there is no solution if everyone pulls out. people still go to the hospital. alex: the pr part is awful for

the obama administration. it is not making money for these big companies. health care shares were the worst performers among 10 industry groups in the s&p 500, in the large part because of what united health care is considering. utilities is the best performing among the 10. if you look at their share prices, they have actually made a round-trip before september before the highly anticipated fed meeting. we know that utilities are prized for their dividends. you can see that they had made this round-trip back to where they were before. the yield tends to move an inverse to share prices. those are back to 3.85%. share prices dropped because investors are pricing in rate increases, and these stocks become less attractive. alex: the question is if we go lower longer, like gold has been

telling us today, what does that mean for utilities -- do you hang onto it for another year, or is it a change that you will see the continued rotation out of those stocks. joe: you have to figure if it really is low for a long time, again, lower than the market probably expect, it would probably be good. scarlet: we keep seeing the continued route and commodities create we had a big casualty today -- chesapeake debt. right now you are looking at chesapeake unsecured notes. it lost by a little over $.12. now it's travels -- trade that $.78 -- trades at $.78 on the dollar. tradedthe most actively company in the junk debt market. this is an awful, awful day for them. 5.6 billion dollar

write-down in the oil and gas field in the third quarter, that wrecked to their profit. they are getting hit on the natural gas side, management side, it is a three-pronged attack on chesapeake. it is not the only one. these prices continue to get pummeled. joe: that is brutal. slide we commodity have seen, that that have more to do with demand than supply? that means if it does, yet another cycle low for these companies. they had to deal with oversupply, and now weaker demand. howdy recover? scarlet: -- how do you recover? scarlett girl you can see all of this on twitter. we will be right back.

alix: i'm alix steel, let's go to mark. mark: the house of representatives ignored a presidential veto threat and overwhelmingly approved republican legislation, making it tougher for syrian and iraqi refugees trying to enter the u.s.. two 47 democrats joined all thattwo republicans as the house passed the measure. block syrian and iraqi refugees from entering the country unless four top law enforcement and security officials tell congress the refugees are not a threat. another raid by french police today. this time they had to blow open a door to enter a house about 145 miles east of paris.

officials say they were looking or anything that could be linked to jihadi networks or illegal weapons. a raid wednesday left the suspected ringleader of the attacks said. this comes after the french parliament voted to extend the state of emergency. it allows raids, and house arrest without permission from a judge for three-month. -- months. hillary clinton outlined her planned for defeating the islamic state. the presidential democratic front runner urged to rise above personal fear to combat the threat if there is a -- terrorism. she says the u.s. must welcome refugees. hillary clinton: we cannot allow terrorists to intimating us from abandoning our values and humanitarian obligations. turning away of orphans, discriminating against muslims, slamming the door on every syrian refugee, that is just not who we are.

we are better than that. mark: misses clinton reiterated her support for a no-fly zone over syria, and back to the president's use of special forces. convicted spy, jonathan pollard will be released from federal prison friday, after 30 years behind bars. intelligencel analyst arrested in 1985 for selling secrets to israel. he was granted parole this year. he will be released from a federal prison in north carolina. you can get more on these and other breaking stories on bloomberg.com. from the first word desk, i mark crumpton. is ricoining us now deverell. you assert the u.s. is ready. ric deverell: i think we have a

big test -- if you look at the labor market in the u.s., it is strong. we had big external shocks in 2012. this year we had people worried about china, yet the labor markets improved. if you look at the gap between where normally the fed funds rate would be in this cycle, and where it is now, where the late market is, and also were nflation is -- joe: this chart on the screen shows lot -- nominal gdp. you can see the big gap. part of that gap is we have been recovering from the crisis. people worried it is volatile. we are getting to the point where i think you can tell there is a resilient economy. theren the other hand, are good signs, but there are interesting products emerging in financial -- crack submerging in financial markets.

there have been notable junk bonds that banks have not been able to get off their books. further, we have seen some cooling on the equity space. there was the square ipo, some of these hot startups. what does it say to you that already the market is pulling back on riskier parts of the market, even before the hike? if you look at because of a lot of the stuff happening, particularly in distressed credit, it is commodity. there are a lot of things going on, really you are seeing a big move in commodity prices, and that flows through on high-yield credit. there is no doubt you are seeing things in terms of corporate earnings. particularly outside of the big companies, corporate earnings have been weakening. that is not surprising, because the fed is trying to increase the labor share. remember we have had this secular run of corporate profit share increasing over 30 years. what you need to do to get inflation back to levels we want, you need wages to pick up.

if you are the fed -- there are risk that these micro-issues can leak into the macro. these things are exactly what you want to see. therefore, moving to a normal financial system. our monetary conditions are actually loose right now. over the last 18 months we have actually seen about 250 basis points of tightening. inthat what we are seeing the square ipo, in the credit spreads, and high-yield market? ric deverell: you can talk about monetary conditions in a lot of ways. this is one measure that pulls things together. i like to think in civil terms. -- simple terms. to me, they are a function of the long end of the yield curve, the dollar, and a few other things. i think because we have had

conditions in china and in europe, much weaker than we have had any cycle, you have a lower yield. given thely have level of unemployment. if you think about a broad methodology, you think about monetary conditions. the only thing moving the other way is the dollar. the big break is the dollar. is the likely to happen fed will cautiously move. we only expect about four increases over the next year. i think episodically when that happens there will be issues in other places. there might be explosions in credit. emerging markets might have problems in the fed will stop for a while. the most likely thing is they pause, reassess. in my view, the labor market will remain resilient, and then they will go again. it is not a straight line from here. you introduced it saying i am certain this is the right thing. nobody can be certain. that is the challenge.

it has not happened before. scarlet: maybe more of an assertion. people still debate best -- you have pointed to the tenure term premium compressions across qe programs. explain what that means? 10 year term premium compressions. : if you think about a composition of a long yield in the united states, it is your average of what you expect the fed rate to be over that time. -- some people think when you buy the long and -- really what qe is doing, and a normal world you basically control the interest rate of the short end. when you get the interest rate to zero, what they do is start buying out along the curve. they start to manipulate those. one of the ways it controls it is it takes the term from your

out. -- premier out. joe: gold came out with an interesting call. this term that greenspan had, the federal reserve was sensitive to downward shocks and asset prices. they said there might be the emergence as the yellen call. as profits rise, that might encourage her to hike more quickly. guy,w you're not a stock but what you make of this? as prices rally, that would spur faster rate hikes? ric deverell: anything is possible. they goes back to where you think monetary conditions are at. i talked about the bond yields, the dollar, then you go to other things, equity prices matter. pricing isin, equity rallying, that probably makes you more comfortable.

the market face -- focus is way too much on very short-term fluctuations in equity prices. joe: you think there will only be four-next year. -- hikes the next year. something else you pointed out was concern over inflation is overblown. and a lot of measures of inflation -- everything else basically is trending up as you can see a chart. are you worried at all that the inflation measures really are going to pick up and we will have to have a faster pace of hikes then you and the market are expecting? xi jinping ric deverell: -- ric deverell: i don't think there is a big inflation shock coming. most of the market is still focused on this idea that there is no inflation. a lot of people are still arguing, that is why the fed should not be increasing. what we are trying to say is

central scenario is they have to move slowly. risk is that inflation >> -- picks up quicker. what we were showing in that chart is if you look at a range of inflation measures, or if you look at the distribution of inflation, that is the only measure showing that inflation is that a core level, below 2%. if you really decompose that, the main thing driving that is health care. market price, that has been driven by obamacare. if you look at market pricing, it is really 2% anyway. i come from the australian central bank, we look at statistical measures of inflation. rate, the fedash funds rate at zero. you have unemployment where it is about 5%. you have inflation already at 2%.

it is a classic environment where the larry summers of the world, who incidentally before the crisis that there was no problem. now they are saying we have secular stagnation and we can never get out. as economist at we need to be humble about what we know about the future. my contention is the aliens from mars land on the planet today and look to that triangulation, unemployment at 5%, core inflation at 2%, and the said rep -- hedge fund rate of zero, they would say this is crazy. it is more complicated. the fed has been quite good the way to gradually move the market. i think there is a strong and building case that you need to very gradually going. they are not tightening. the way i think about it is, if you are driving a car -- you had your foot on the accelerator after the crisis. the wheels were spinning, now they are getting traction. we are slowly taking our foot off the accelerator. no one is talking about breaking at. that is an important point. that is why they have to be

careful. if you start spending again, they will stop. scarlet: thank you. nike is gaining in after-hours trading. it has boosted their dividend by $.20. they also announced a two for one spot -- stock split. nike is the sixth biggest stock in the dow jones. it is a price weighted average. with this stock split, it is waiting the dow will go down. separately, gap reporting earnings -- they cut their annual profit forecast. they get a 10.5% for the full year, versus 11.7%. sales continue to slide with third-quarter sales dropping 2%. the stock is trading lower in after-hours trading. alix: coming up, we will head to san francisco where cory johnson will drill down on square after the first day of trading. be right back.

♪

scarlet: i'm scarlet fu, joining us from san francisco is cory johnson. you have been following square closely since of the -- it was a private company. now, the stock is surging in its debut. you are skeptical of the story, what is your take? cory: it is fascinating. surging based on a price for the price it. they wanted to price of between

$10 and $12 a share, it closed at $13. they did not price it at $12. they priced it at nine dollars which led to a boost up. it theywhen they priced were thinking it would go to $11 or $13. the initial indication of pricing range usually means the banks think the price will go up. they could not do that in this case, they needed to price below. there was clearly demand. a year ago there was a private round of investment at $15 -- $15.46. a lack ofaw here was excitement about this company. i think that shows you, for all of the interest in the technology here, it shows you that wall street really values its deal, with still excitement,

be afforded to a transaction company, not a social media, semi-conduct her -- semi conductor -- whatever magic they wanted, they didn't get here. alix: my question was what did wall street see that the private investors did not? cory: on the positive side for square, they saw fantastic revenue growth. if you look at the revenue growth, esau a business that is presently at a 1.2 billion dollar run rate. those numbers are solid. on the left positive note, the losses were there inside. the more they sold, the more they lost. over $59 in the quarter the just ended. that is not good. , ifink more interestingly

square goes public as a payment product -- processing business, to their disadvantage when compared to the other unicorns, is the competitive set. there are a lot of comparisons between apple -- square would like you to think their competitors are apple. their competitors are google. their competitors are strike. -- stripe. those are the exciting companies. those are not the real competitors. i will argue paypal maybe. -- they are publicly traded companies. companies like heartland. -- vantiv ike banta e. sales is 3.7 times still more highly valued then competitors in the payment space

, but not as fantastically valued as investors would have imagined. it seems like with each cycle, we moved to different things to focus on. perhaps we are making the shift to profitability. what about jack dorsey? he has to manage twitter and engineer that. cory: that is one of the reasons there is excitement. jack is an innovative guide, a smart guy, a nice guy. he does have interesting facial hair. maybe that would generate a higher ratio, i don't know. era wherean error -- we are changing existing is misses. -- existing businesses. as a result, there are costs which might lower the valuations of companies. scarlet: thank you. the terrorism attacks in prison -- paris have driven u.s. and

russia closer. we will discuss that next. ♪ ♪

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alix: -- scarlet: i'm scarlet fu, let's go to mark. the escalation of airstrikes has been approved over syria and iran. the foreign minister of cyprus says he will accommodate any request to use the mediterranean island's airbase. this week, they called for a global coalition to fight militants. belgian authorities say they have detained nine people during raids in and around brussels. the belgian prosecutor's office

said two of those taken into custody were involved in friday's attacks on paris. disgraced former subway pitch man, jared fogle was sentenced today to more than 15 years in prison. he pleaded guilty to trading in child pornography, and having sexual intercourse with underage prostitutes. he told the judge he regrets his actions that destroyed his life and career, and harmed his victims. a major diamond discovery in africa. the biggest diamond in more than a century was recovered by machines in a mine in botswana. the 1100 caret rock is slightly smaller than a tennis ball. -- the only diamond larger is part of the crown jewels of great britain. on thesecan get more and other breaking stories 24 hours a day at bloomberg.com.

let's get a recap on how u.s. markets close on thursday. little change in the major indexes, the dow only swinging 91 point -- not even 91 point about the trading session. that is the smallest move this month. alix: -- scarlet: nike, gaining in after-hours trading -- they are also splitting their stock two-for-one. they announced a $12 billion stock buyback. gap also declining, it is moving around quite a bit, after cutting their annual profit forecast with arjun's going down to 10.5% versus 11.7%. third quarter comparable sales drops 2%. just a click note on what assets did move, the dollar, 30 year treasury had the biggest rally since august. you also have gold rally as

well. this pointed to the fact that maybe the fed is looking at a lower, for longer pace of rate hikes in the market. hospital stocks getting slammed today, major insurer, united health care might pull out of the obama exchange. scarlet: something that caught my eye is the baltic dry index. take a look at the terminal. it measures how much it cost to ship stuff around the world. as joe pointed out, it is at a record low. have weak show you demand globally, or you have too many bankers. i don't know which one it is. something else that was fascinating in the baltic dry toex world, how it compares the index it attracts, how much it costs to ship oil. that green line is how much

tanker rates are for oil. surging, huge divergence. he goes to show how much oil is on the market, and how much it would cost to store it. oil -- tons of it on boats, but for everything else, no one is shipping. scarlet: that is what that tells me. joe: i want to dive into the terminal to look at another indicator of the economy, swiss watch exports. here is a tenure chart -- 10 year chart. in 2009, whenre the economy crashed, it fell. that was 30%. there was not much demand for expensive swiss watches. it rebounded. now we have the worst reading since the crisis, -12.3%. the real colbert -- horrible sales, horrible exports to hong kong. this corruption

crackdown. it kind of looks like a chart of the msci emerging markets. it kind of looks like a chart of some of these -- sotheby's. scarlet: to biggie -- piggyback reason is thene earnings are falling faster than profits in the u.s.. this goes back to 2010, we saw reported earnings for brazil, dropped 45%. earnings for russia has been growing, and it fell off. indian and chinese profits have held up better. see this redline, that is the s&p 500, it has plateaued this year. markets to the emerging , it held up much better. let's look at the complex relationship between russia and the united states. they both fight the islamic state.

vladimir putin and barack obama met this past weekend on the sidelines of the g-20 meeting in turkey. is this a signal that the sides are closer than before the attacks and before the downing of the russian plane? clementnow is alex --alexander kliment. he studies russian politics. is that true, does it help unite them? alexander kliment: i don't think it does actually. the u.s. and russia both share the view of isis is a threat. it is a deep divergence of what to do. this comes down to how both sides viewed the president of syria. the russians say, before dealing with isis, you need to strengthen president assad. that is the only political force capable of establishing control over the areas that you take back from isis. the americans of, no, you have

to get rid of president assad first because he drives people into the arms of isis. everyone agrees that isis is a terrible thing. the sequencing of how dealing with that is the crux of the disagreement. joe: where do western european leaders stand? alexander kliment: they are in a complex position. for europe right now, the number one political challenges to deal with the refugee crisis. to deal with that you have to find some solution to the syrian war. position now in a good to be the kind of key external broker of the solution. the europeans are actually moving closer to russia. they badly need a deal to solve the refugee crisis. the americans -- it is more of a distant problem. map of: if you look at a the airstrikes in the last month, russia has been targeting anti-assad forces. france on the right side has been targeting the islamic

state. russia has been talking good talk. are we going to see russia begin attacking isis targets? alexander kliment: certainly in the wake of the revelation that the plane crash was a terrorist attack -- russia release one of its largest bombing raids in decades. i doubt that will be sustained. even if russia does turn more attention to isis, vladimir putin's primary aim is to weaken the aim at assad. either assad run syria, or isis does. that is not much of a choice for the europeans. alix: when it comes to vladimir putin, russia's economy is not awesome. it seems like vladimir putin has become instrumental. hishe one hand, international policy is doing well, where is -- as his internal is not so much. alexander kliment: one way those things could come together is if

russia can, by virtue of its role in syria, can get itself out of european sanctions. that is a key objective for vladimir putin. he is trying to use that as leverage to soften the sanctions. it will not do wonders for the economy. the russian economy was in trouble, stagnating before the ukraine rices, before oil prices collapsed. any little bit helps. if they can get out of sanctions next year, it makes a difference. joe: what odds you place on that? alexander kliment: i think it looks good. repeal, but out of the diplomacy surrounding syria, the vienna process develops -- the europeans will get to a point where they have to do trading with russia to get vladimir putin on board. with designing and guaranteeing a settlement in syria. scarlet: how does the use that leverage? does he eventually have toask

assad to step down? he caner kliment: present -- the russian position on how long a solid stays in power has moderated. -- assad stays in power has moderated. the details of the process, what won't happen is the saudi demand in the u.s. demand that assad must leave at once -- i don't think that is realistic. alix: does vladimir putin have as much weight with us on s -- assad as he claims? alexander kliment: he has helped the regime to turn around some of its strategic losses. i think that gives him leverage. in moscow, thead relationship is not warm. if one guy needs the other more,

it is definitely assad needs vladimir putin. the fear of the islamic attacks on the u.s.. ♪

alix: coming up on bloomberg television, martin o'malley will respect." "all the scarlet: i'm scarlet fu, it is time for a look at the biggest business stories in the news. we are looking at shares of cap alling and extended trading. this is after the company cut its or your company profit

forecast. the retailer says third-quarter net income fell to two and $48 million, down from $351 million a year ago. the shares have dropped 40% this year. alix: a warning to yahoo!, change those plans to spin off your stake in alibaba, or face a proxy fight. sell to yahoo! should display advertising. to look will quote look -- make significant changes to destroy shareholder value. scarlet: nike is doing a stock i that program. investors cheering the news. company says the new by that

plan will take effect when the current $8 million authorization is completed. that is expected before the end of nike's fiscal 2016. there are also boosting their dividend. that is the bloomberg business flash. back with us now is alexander kliment. we are talking about russia, the u.s., and isis. syria and the islamic state are more distant, and less urgent than europe. president obama has made it clear he is not willing to commit troops, despite what happened in paris. how does that change in the event of an isis strike in the u.s.? alexander kliment transit was hit by a direct terrorist attack , they are still not sending troops themselves. it is difficult to imagine a significant amount of support. politically it is impossible. and a would see the u.s. bombing isis more. but i do not think you would see a real support for ground were. -- war. i don't think it will drive the u.s. and russia closer.

joe: in the absence of a ground war, is there anything that the u.s., russia, or europe can do? at this point there have been so many airstrikes you have to wonder how many realistic target or are that have not been struck. is there anything further that could be done? alexander kliment: there are two problems, how do you maintain isis in the region? that is where things have gone well, airstrikes plus kurdish fighters have actually beaten back the isis in some areas. there is a containment strategy. the problem is, how you deal with these guys that have gone to fighting isis and come back to their home countries and logitech. all ofis attackers -- you guys were born in europe. that is terrifying. that is a problem for europe. to france, and belgium as well. it is more of a problem in europe and the u.s.. alix: -- scarlet: that leads us to the

bloomberg businessweek story, how the islamic group is getting their money. how would you attempt to cut that off? alexander kliment: the recent bombing is focused on some of those oil smuggling routes. of hydra -- it has lots of different tentacles. you are constantly playing this game a containment until you get to the point where you say, ok, there will be a ground war to actually move these guys out. then you're left with the problem of what next? today become the linchpin of the relationship? alexander kliment: that is what the russians would like. there is too much antipathy between the u.s. and russia. it is also worth pointing out europe is in a position where they have to deal with russian more. the u.s. is not.

it is still a political and economic freebie to be hawkish. particularly as they moved to an electoral season where the white house will be trying to protect the to a credit candidate from perceptions of weakness, and certainly no one on capitol hill will raise their hand to go with russia. it does not stack up on the u.s. side. scarlet: thank you so much for joining us. agreesoming up, house deal with the influx of migrants and refugees? we will look at the country's situation as a main gateway to europe. ♪

alix: i'm alix steel, the u.s. voted to block refugees from entering the u.s. come a despite president obama threatening a veto. the division over the free movement of people is more pressing in the eu, especially greece, where the more than half a million migrant and refugees have passed through this year. joining us now as nick ofkoutzis, he is the editor acropolis, a political and economic analysis website. arere hearing countries losing their borders, building fences, what does that mean for greece? nick malkoutzis: it is a big concern, it is a main gateway at the moment for migrants and refugees to reach central and northern europe. around 650,000 people so far have arrived, almost all by sea

from turkey. many risking their lives. we have had quite a lot of people drown in the sea. with a lot of other countries is that greece is a transit country. they are coming here to reach somewhere else. that has largely been happening. the problem is, if greece's neighbors to the north start building fences on their borders, start imposing tighter border controls, you will get a big bottleneck here in brief -- in greece. people stuck here, not wanting to be here, and of course greece not having the resources, especially financial given the economic crisis to deal with it. joe: speak more to that. obviously all of europe has put a lot of pressure on greece, or greece has a lot of pressure put on it because it is the gateway. but it is not exactly overflowing with resources to deal with this.

what kind of strain is this putting on the government and administration? nick malkoutzis: there are two types. one of the financial strain, greece has been asked to house 50,000 refugees who will then be relocated to other parts of europe. given the slow pace of this relocation program only a few hundred have been relocated so far from greece and italy. you are talking about finding somewhere for thousands of people to stay for an indefinite time. the temporary people -- the people coming in and moving on, you have to register them. you have to feed them. yet the shelter them, especially now, we are getting to winter. the other burden is the administrative burden of dealing with all of this. greece is a small country, it has been experienced in dealing with an influx of migrants, but nothing like this. we're talking about 800% up on the figures from last year. leave greece this

and a weird negotiating power with the eu? : it has beenis suggested that the current government led by alexis tsipras could use this to negotiate. we have seen that turkey recently has tried to squeeze as much as they can out of the eu in return for helping. the difference is that greece is part of the eu, and it cannot be seen to essentially be blackmailing. what it needs to try to do is strike a balance between saying this is a common problem and we need your help, but also putting it's foot down and saying, look, our resources are limited. ongoingning to greece's goal of getting the bailout. there was obviously tension recently. with the process of unlocking

the latest funds, there is more division -- or strain building -- one lawmaker resigned, another was expelled from the main committee because they did not support the latest round of negotiations. can the current slim down hold it together? it is akoutzis: challenge for the government and alexis tsipras. he has lost two mps at the moment. ae coalition government has majority that is slim. what he does not have now that he had in august, when the third bailout was voted through is the support of three of the main opposition parties. that he haslem is voted through some of the prior actions that the lenders are asking for. there is still a lot more to come.

one of the biggest things coming up is the pension reform. that is a painful measure for this government to get through. to keep all of its mps on site. also to keep the public on side to give alexis tsipras a second chance. scarlet: thank you for joining us. alix: we will be right back with what you need to know to gear up for tomorrow. ♪

alix: we have fed talks tomorrow. we have bill dudley speaking in new york. joe: we just got comments from stanley fischer basically saying they do not want to surprise the market, what they are communicating is what they are communicating. alix: i am looking at kansas city fed manufacturing do tomorrow as well.

joe: we are watching to see if there is a rebound. scarlet: don't miss surveillance tomorrow morning because david stubbs be joining john: with all due respect to

hillary clinton -- [indiscernible] ♪ the red corner tonight, ben carson versus donald trump. ted cruz.o versus in the blue corner, clinton versus sanders. had duelingidates speeches today. clinton spoke about her plan to fight isis and sanders gave an address on democratic socsm