♪ emily: he is the owner of the world very first model s, and an early backer of tesla and spacex , a fast talker with an unconventional investing philosophy. he has amassed one of the biggest private space collections in the world. today on studio 1.0 is venture capitalist and partner at draper fisher jurvetson, steve jurvetson. thank you for being here.

in 1996 when you made an early investment in hotmail and you've bet on e-mail before e-mail was anything. what did you see? steve: eight entrepreneur that gets me very excited. and an idea that was unlike anything i had seen before. e-mail wherever you go not tie to a corporate system or a university server. we invested in what became the first example of marketing on the internet. emily: microsoft. hotmail and you made hundreds of millions of dollars. how did you come the guy who could make big productions? -- predictions? what kind of kid were you? steve: i do not know if i ever grew up. born in a persona. -- arizona. i started programming when the

apple to see computer first came out. something about programming a machine. here is a learning cycle so rapid. emily: you graduated first in your class from stanford and got a masters in electrical engineering. steve: i love to learn and that i love about venture capitalism, always learning but i did not want to leave school. i enrolled into a phd which i did not intend to take. i eventually had to go get a job. emily: after you got all the schooling, you worked at apple and for steve jobs. he tried to recruit you at pixar, what was your relationship with him? this: intense, he has incredible focus on whoever he is speaking with. i remember the walks we would go on. an agreement to study how he

does business. i was an acolyte, that i could understand thhim. he came to my house and set in front of the fireplace for three hours and i remember he was obsessed with apple. he did not own a share of apple but was distraught. this visceral pain when apple was getting eaten up. just beaten up. day i would look at him like he was not. what ceo of apple would bring back and keep their job? who would do that and think they could survive? the ceo brought him in and was gone within months.

appeal appleet has. everyone knew he had this fashion isn't with design -- fascination with design but at no point did i see him with a strategy. this is craft, this is beautiful -- crap and this is beautiful. -- tell mehil -- emily: about your relationship with elon. you saved him. steve: we met in 1996 in california. he was pitching his first start up. we were trying to invest in paypal. learn and seee to how he is developing his company. december of 2008, he went into personal debt and the collateral

of his companies to back up a loan to invest in tesla when no one else would. were sayingvestors they would do a fraction. it is a herd mentality, that if everyone else is in, i am in. we invested in a way to get him out of a hole. emily: you guys have a close relationship, a mind meld. does he ever say anything to you that you think is crazy? steve: crazy is as crazy does. emily: tell me about your own interest in space, you launch rockets in your yard. steve: my son and i have been doing that since he was three. we built things that will go o.ck tw i have converted the whole dfj and lobby -- lobby into a space

museum. emily: you have not been to space? steve: no, i have been wait was a couple of times. -- wait list a couple of times -- weightless a couple of times. wait -- rather wait till the fourth or fifth light. the perception of fear because it sounds dangerous and things blow up. visual failure in front of everyone but the goal with spacex is to make it as routine as our flight. do not make the planes reusable. you can gain more experience. exploded,pacex rocket a huge blow. have a fix the problem? steve: they believe they have. bolt. a little

emily: what happened? steve: it failed, but they can push that aside put a replacement design that will not have that problem. mars? will spacex get to steve: absolutely, 20 years. emily: to get the colony started? steve: yes. if you just want to send something to mars and not get it back, you can do that sooner. tesla models. evere the very first s made. i got the -- emily: how was it performing? steve: rate. -- great. i have yet to replace the brakes. there is no spark plugs.

none of the usual stuff that i used to get maintenance on, tires are the only thing that is needed -- emily: what features are you most excited about? the future of the electric vehicle. like ae one of these is lightning bolt going off in your head. back, -- we will look back to the present and say wow. it will come to market as a service, and uber like service without the driver. vehicles that could not kill someone even if they try to jump in front of the vehicle. in the abstract it is scary. emily: when will it hit the mainstream? steve: you might take a ride in

one in vegas. making its own self driving car, are you concerned about competition? steve: no and yes. all vehicles will be electric and a taunus. -- a taunus. you have to do it or would you -- you will not be business. a whole fleet of different vehicles will come out, two-person vehicles, buses, vans. emily: is apple working on a self driving car? steve: by the year 2020. emily: apples thing is to do what somebody has already done but better and different. can they do it? steve: sometimes they do and sometimes they do not, the watch is not grabbing me. emily: not a fan of the apple watch? steve: battery life for me.

i have a lot of watches and i cannot fathom in my personal use charging issue. emily: should tesla focus more on lower-priced, mainstream electric cars? the model three which is supposed to cost $35,000, but that is the base price. steve: that is their long-term vision, you either have many billions of dollars to put into equipment to mass-produce, or you do it in iterations, take a current model s, if you factor in the total cost of ownership over five or seven years, fuel cost and maintenance cost that are lower, your total cost is not that different from a high-end for taurus. if you start with the next vehicle and do the same analysis, it might come up to like a civic. that starts to sound like a more mainstream vehicle. emily: how concerned are you about google?

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emily: i know you are super fascinated with machine learning, what is your vision for how ai changes our lives five years from now? steve: a little more than five years, what we call things that are creepy or magical in their ability to do something we thought was somewhat human like drive a car. manage your schedule and figure out what you might want to do today. medical imaging analysis and diagnostics. all these areas where recognizing a pattern of human behavior, it a pattern in a helpse, traffic patterns see things. i can navigate more easily through this traffic or optimize my calendar in a way i could not see before. i think that will acclimate us to ai slowly as opposed to out

of nowhere, robots that are smarter than us and take our jobs. emily: how concerned are you about google's ambitions in ai? steve: it scares me a little bit because there is a reckless abandon, a flare with the his,ional, we will because but -- we will be cautious, but technology is our future, we will make good pets for these ais in the future and life will be good. ish what could go wrong. things living off vast information feeds and operating in a way we cannot fathom that we may not ever detect their existence. emily: how is your interest in machine learning playing out in

your investment philosophy? steve: the way we engineered things is changing from everything we can think of that is engineering, two things growing and iterating a solution rapidly. imagine, much like a newborn baby, you build a brain in the box, exposed to photos and thegnizing things on internet. that same program can recognize anything on the internet or speech, or try to find tumors in mammograms or other pathology slides did you have these generic learning machines that you can apply to many different things and you do not know how it works. we do not know how a brain works we know how they got there but not what it is. emily: good computers take over the world? steve: yes, but why? emily: because they become smarter than us. steve: to what end? what they would do is, we would

not know they were pets, we would wake up, and said i found out how to do a -- between us and our pets, my cat thinks it is hunting the point mouse -- point mouse -- toy mouse. the long arc of human intelligence is we have less violence over time. why would a more intelligent being used childish like kindergarten level, that is my toy, as opposed to more sophisticated manipulation. investor,was an early do you stand behind -- ♪

about what do you think valuations, are we at peak in a born -- unicorn? steve: every time you ask a

question like that a very dies -- ferry dies. i do not know. it is interesting how the private funding world is reaching valuations we have not seen before. at early stage investing, way before the unicorn days, -- unicorn phase, we are fine if people want to invest in those prices. two companies i am on the board of, we got new offers in unicorn , new york once born every week. -- new unicorns born every week but it does not mean anything. the ipo window may be shutting. it seems that way for biotech stocks. , a $10i have to ask you billion valuation, do you stand behind them and would you invest again? steve: we stand behind them in

that we are investor. we do not have the answers to the questions swirling around, can i give you an answer to the questions others are asking. i remember meeting her when she was a stanford student, elizabeth holmes, as a teenager started the company with great passion. my partner said she is like steve jobs, long before the black turtlenecks. i do not know what she was referring to -- he was referring to. it was fastening, she had a mesmerizing deal to revolutionize. the entire field of medicine. chapterthe very first , but she has been somewhat independent and has been going at it on her own. inly: you want to invest

breakthrough technology. how do you, at the earliest stages, separate something possible from something impossible? steve: people walk in our door every week, a week does not go by when someone does not have gotten is equally excited because we hear about the next generation. some of them are wrong. do i believe them? the best partnerships are when venture investors believes almost as passionately as the entrepreneurs themselves. i was convinced tesla, all vehicles will be electric, when i hear him explaining it, he has won me over. i have been wrong and i will be wrong again. when it is right it is a remarkable thing. if we talk about the ones that are right. steve: the world -- emily: the world of venture capital has

a hot new firm, recruiting, marketing. js place inu see df the hierarchy today versus 20 years ago? steve: i try not to, in a healthy economy, you have many different firms that do different things, have different strategies. if i'm doing my job we will not come head-to-head with the same group over and over again because that might apply we are doing the same thing. approach,ifferent looking for industry sectors not over invested in, where no one is competing for the deal. the vast majority of investments i have made there has been no competing offer. emily: i was going to ask, how to get on top? emily: steve: the sectors that have 18 different firms all well-known, pursuing the exact same sector. sectors, like space, there was

no one else saying this. they find us. we do not need the same infrastructure to track down and find the opportunities competing with everyone else. i think a venture firm is ideally a small, five to seven endeavorlmost every where creativity or decision-making is needed here the moment you go past seven to are less effective. steve: what is next for you? steve: you will find me learning. a company you can harvest organs, by changing -- we can take their heart, kidney, lungs and saw the transparent problems. and -- information technology, we will grow technologies and build things that feel like brains and less like computers. that is that we will push engineering past its current limits which is humans design

thinks they can understand. if you would ask the question, we one day have something that is smarter than humans, dramatically smarter, the answer has to be yes. emily: is it already smarter than me? steve: literally smarter in every way. has a conversation and gives you better answers to your question that i can. that will inevitably happen if you give it a billion years of normal evolution. than theill be better human means the long arc of evolution is normal. have --not the case, we it begs the question, why cannot we accelerate the process? what can we do to rapidly evolve things that surpass us. emily: that is what you will be thinking about? steve: it probably has a recap and. -- already happened. emily: thank you for joining us,

i will see you on the moon. ♪

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>> every year around november or december, many journalists will get an assignment that makes them feel a little nervous. >> you are putting me on the spot. >> they will be asked to write a story about what will happen in the coming year. >> i don't think anybody has made an accurate prediction once. >> predicting the future is a tough job, but you know what they say about tough jobs, someone has got to go out and do it. >> we thought about the latest developments and medicine, transportation, and energy.