--k i am mark halperin mark: i am mark halperin. john: and i am john heilemann. we were hoping for a quiet monday. ♪ mark: happy national cashew day, sports fan. donald trump and bernie sanders, but first, ben carson's gaffe. he is no longer sharing front runner status with the donald, who is way out in head by a

whopping margin, double digits all over the place. according to the numbers from fox news, carson is down five points, and marco rubio and ted cruz closing fast, and carson's drop was even more dramatic in some polls. in one, he has fallen all of the way to third, while ted cruz has cruised past him, up to 21%, and himcbs/yougov numbers has place.th carson also saw his support fall. which one of these strikes you as the most significant? well, there are a lot of people in the establishment and media who just want to say that carson is done. he could have a second half, but the big news is trump. trump is so far ahead that some

of the people are saying, he is not coming back down to earth. we will have to beat him when one of us can get him one on one. john: let's just put up these numbers. is doing well, and a point i'm going to make about carson, which is among republicans, terrorism in the , that has shot up, and many are saying that terrorism is the main issue, with the economy lagging, 29%. donald trump's strongman persona is helping him a lot. there are those in the establishment who say that ben carson is dead, that i think his weakness on foreign policy has caught up with him, in the same way it is helping donald trump the strong. it is hurting ben carson.

isk: establishing primacy key. looking at the polls, there is a bit of a checkerboard thing. there are places where cruz looks stronger, places where rubio looks stronger. they may be the big thing in the republican race with trump way ahead, but more difficult for him to beat someone if it gets down to one on one. is defending; isself -- mr. trump defending himself for multiple things, saying he saw people cheering after 9/11, and he is under fire for his apparent openness about a federal registry for muslims, and him calling for surveillance of mosques in america and his support of waterboarding.

the blackhere was lives protester at one of his rallies, and he tweeted some questionable data. this is not the first time mr. trump has been embroiled in something. is this just like other stuff he overcomes in the end? that trump now clear has clarified his position on the muslim registry, which he is not totally ruling it out. he says it is completely within the realm of the possible, and he says on this other item, -- to answer your question directly, mark, i do not think any one of these things is going to bring donald trump down, but i do think if anything ever does bring donald trump down, it would look like this, a bunch of things and not just one. it is not a silver bullet. it is a range of things, but

this is the way it could happen. it is freaky friday. we reverse roles, because i think this idea about the registry brings him down. it is so out of step with what americans believe. supporting it or at least not ruling it out, but this is the kind of thing -- when voters get serious, this could whirl him out. i want to show you something out. -- else. john kasich and the super pac. it is intriguing because it goes that amockery of trump lot of people think in the end will take him down. mr. trump: he was a war hero because he was captured. wasvolved the -- if ivanka be my daughter, i would

dating her. i have always had a great relationship with the blacks. i just do not respect her as a journalist. you could see there was blood coming out of her eyes, blood coming out of her wherever. ,omebody is doing the raping but who is doing the raping? how stupid are the people of iowa? john, the reason i wanted people to see that is if he is going to be brought down, it will be him brought down by those who think he does not have the right temperament, the right tone to be the commander in chief, undermining his persona with mockery. n: this goes to the point i was try to make at the outset, that it will be the accumulation, not one thing -- the point i was trying to make

at the outset, that it will not be the -- it will be the accumulation, not one thing. on theif you are betting notion that it is a cumulative effect, there is some sense in that kind of an approach. ok, as he has been, marco rubio is a man on the rise. his campaign is going on the air this week with his first tv ad, a 30-second spot, which will be seen nationally. the focus of that ad? that would be isis. islamic terror. what happened in paris could happen here. there is no middle ground. these are not disgruntled or disempowered people. we let women drive and let girls go to school. i am marco rubio. i approved this message.

there can be no negotiation. either they win, or we do. ohn: it is ominous. it is a pretty striking ad. so why for this guy at this time? s, we well, even pre-pari knew that national security was an issue. to be abio wants security candidate. he is saying, i am 42, but i am ready to be commander in chief. maybe it is a little to o somber, but he wants to be known as a guy who is ready to do the job. hanging a lantern on your troubles. ist is kind of what rubio doing. it does highlight how young he looks. he does not emanate graviton's

-- gravatas. -- gravitas. im am not sure this 100% works. -- i am not sure this 100% works. are going to the democratic side, and hillary clinton rolled out new proposals this weekend, and once again within hours, the bernie sanders campaign went right into attack mode. statement, it was called -- they have been knocking her for not going as far as they should. ark: my gut is that they are not. the clinton campaign is being very aggressive.

sanders is doing well with the press releases, but it is very hard with this theme she has built up to put a dent into it. she has builtteam up for him to put a dent in it. john: he has to drive the message. other people in the campaign -- bernie sanders, the only want to hea credible messenger -- cannot delegate that to his campaign. i think the biggest weakness he has right now in terms of pursuing this strategy is it feels like he is outsourcing his criticism to his aides. they are being very nimble about talking about tax cuts, trying to flank him, sometimes very effective, and again, he is behind. he needs to catch up. capitol paul ryan's

hill, and what our latest poll says about the latest "star wars " film. we are back in 60 seconds. ♪

♪ john: president obama and secretary of state carrey have both taken a lot about statements concerning the mark: president obama and secretary of state john kerry have both taken a lot about statements they have made. "killers with good social media." president obama: we do not succumb to fear.

thatis the primary power these terrorists have over us. they cannot strike a mortal blow against the united states or against france or against a country like malaysia, but they can make people are, and that is understandable. , what gives? there has been all of this criticism of the president and the secretary of state, and yet, they continue to take the same tone and emphasis. why? or get can emote emotional, but that is not going to do anything to plug the hole. i think the president and the secretary look at the country and think it is dangerous for people to be panicking, and they are trying to adopt a hyper rational tone. are saying is true. they do not went to stir up more

frenzy. they are trying to calm people down. you may not like that, but that is what they are trying to do. mark: i am not sure what they are saying is true, but some are typically very supportive of the president, and they think this is all wrong. some have called this the worst moment of his presidency, and i do not get why they do not at , some of themis in some ways and optimism in others. it has not been perfect, by any means, but i am trying to see what they are doing and get inside their head because they , but we willguys be talking with someone about this later, margaret. things could not get worse in washington, they did not. andting a permit shutdown

taking the lead on the syrian -- averting a government shutdown in taking the lead on the syrian refugee crisis. is this the new normal? he has got democrats respecting him and dealing with him. he is spending the kind of time to do the things you need to do to get people to at least feel they are invested in the process. it is changing the tone and having washington function better, and we can credit paul ryan for having thought through the job. no doubt, it is different. i do not know if it is the new normal, but the dynamics. the question is, will we be looking at another government shutdown threat? what does ryan do? we will have an answer about a new normal or a honeymoon. we could be back to where we

were before, but i hope not. he has a better chance than john boehner. they are invested in him in a way they were not invested in boehner. john: both sides. ok, we talked about our latest bloomberg politics poll, but we saved a little nugget for now. we asked people to pick from upcoming events and tell us which one they were looking most forward to, and the results are -- the super bowl. morethe iowa caucuses, than the 19% who said "star ncaa" and then 9% say the march madness. john, i am wondering which event you are looking most forward to. guy, butm a political

it is all about "star wars" for me. they are high, and high on some substance that if i could get a hold of it, i would. "stararch madness and the wars" movie, that is crazy. "star wars."rumps trump gets people excited about this election. that is all i can tell you. and mr. trump will tell you, people like him. john: which of those are you looking forward to? wars."star as long as wet, agree on that. we will put hillary clinton under the scope, when we come back. ♪

♪ ♪ anchor: our first guest tonight is a former team occasions director for barack obama and eight top democratic strategist -- a top democratic strategist. anita, thank you. clinton, what does she have going for her, and what would worry you about the election? i think in the last month, you have seen hillary clinton as a candidate who has really found her voice. i think if you watched the south carolina forum or her speech last week and her interviews,

she is a candidate who is increasingly sounding confident, and because she sounds confident, she sounds more presidential every day, and i think when you talk to people, there is no question about her qualifications, and what you are starting to see now is a candidate who is really communicating why she wants the she seems more comfortable every day with the role of presidential candidate. mark: you did not cite her weaknesses. there are polls that show her behind or even with a lot of the republicans who are in their own contested contests, so do you think those polls are not accurate, or do you think she is behind republicans at this point? anita: i think one of the things i would not worry about if i were working for her campaign were polls taken in november --5 for a general election

polls taken in november 2015 for a general election in november 2016. field, youblican have some candidates who are not as defined as she is and who have a very intense republican primary going on with a lot of enthusiasm going on on that side for change, so right now, you have two apparent ill tracks, and pitting those -- you have , andifferent tracks pitting those against each other is not the same. i do not worry as much about the polls. clinton'swith hillary campaign, i would worry about things i do not control, the economy.

that so-called third term piece of it would be something that i do not control but i would worry about. n: the reason we talk about the general election, and forget the head-to-head, but if you were working for her, and you knew that there were a couple of things that potentially are vulnerabilities, one is that her trustworthy numbers among americans are not that great, and another concern is whether she will be able to generate the requisite enthusiasm particularly among millennial voters, young voters. which is worse? the enthusiasm piece? enthusiasmink the piece is hard when you already control the white house because you do not get as strong of a change, every hillary clinton, there is the excitement around

-- the firststoric woman president, if she is the party nominee. i think that can help with enthusiasm. trust and confidence is something you have to earn from the american people, and you earn it by the kind of campaign you run, the kind of priorities you choose, and they are kind of sizing you up every day and against your opponent, so i think the enthusiasm he's is just a challenge whenever you are fighting to hold on -- the enthusiasm piece is something that is a challenge whenever you are fighting to hold on. she has more change rhetoric than she has had in the past, and she is working on those issues. you have worked for barack obama, and you're also a woman. : --a

to havell she be able the kind of enthusiasm being a woman as barack obama had with african-americans? certainly for a generation of women, hillary story and the things she is talking about really resonate, and the idea of having a woman in the white house is very exciting, so i think that is something we are not seeing a lot of right now because we are hopefully, but, women will get excited. you are not point to see the same percentages that we saw in the african-american community with barack obama -- you are not going to see the same percentages that we saw in the african-american community with barack obama. mark: anita, who will the nominee for republicans be, and

why? anita: i do not know. mark: who do you think the three most likely are? ta: you have to go with a front runner, donald trump, who has an amazing ability to survive and even thrive, and that is a scary stability, and, rubio is, senator gaining a lot of steam, and i think i would also have to put senator cruz in there, as well. anita, thank you. up next, those supporting ted cruz are sitting on tens of millions of dollars in cash. we will talk more about that, right after this. ♪

the u.s. now is republican strategist kellyanne conway, now

running one of the super pac's. good to see you. kellyanne: thank you for having me, john. john: ted cruz is suddenly on the move in iowa. explain to me what you think is happening there. kellyanne: it is an outsider who washington,y around d.c., and is trusted in the evangelical community. 57% of the caucus voters were evangelical. that's a very strong community there. he has been in the churches. he has a great grassroots team. from the super pac side, we are trying to support what the senator is doing. john: dimensional wisdom right now is -- the conventional wisdom right now is that, part of it is, post-paris, is that foreign policy weaknesses, shall we say, have cost him in an appreciable way

in the past week, in addition to senator cruz's strength. do you think that is basically right? kellyanne: i think that's part of it. a very smart person observed to me in september, when i said, people will have to picture so and so as commander in chief, and that smart person said, well, ben carson's people can picture him that way. i think with the demise, if you will of the governor model -- i said to myself, where does that come from? the governors made it up. just a little bit of experience, so that you are not a lifer, has somehow boast -- boosted -- rubioreveal and and cruz. that does keep you within the

aura of commander in chief. are: the super pacs organized in a different way, largely funded by different families or other donors. how is it working? what is the logic behind it? kellyanne: it's working very well. the logic behind it was you had different families and individuals who were in support of senator cruz and his aspiration to be the republican nominee of the united states. and they decided they would all be under the umbrella of keep the promise, but they would each have different numbers. if somebody believes very much in the ground game -- we coordinate constantly. we fly around to meet each other. we talked regularly. i think what we are trying to do, mark, is not be devoted if -- duplicative. thehilosophy is that

fastest way to have a small portion, make a small portion, is to have a large one and waste some of it. we are trying to avoid that. mark: some are skeptical that the so-calledn do ground game, field organizing and voter contact. view of that and how possible it is for a super pac to do that on behalf of a candidate? kellyanne: it's possible, and i actually think it is prudent. super pac is not a campaign. we have invested in people as running eventually, broadcast and cable ads. there are many different ways to touch the voters. text messaging, phone banks, digital broadcast cable, but also organizing on the ground. organizing on the ground is very much in keeping with who senator cruz is.

the only people angry at ted cruz when he shows up at an event is the fire marshal, because the crowds spill over to the outside and we have to open the doors. there have been super pac's that have seemed to exist solely to run ad after ad. we are trying not to do that. kasich's supern $5.4 million of ads atnew hampshire and we are 9%. ads. run 0 we are also at 9%. we are in it for the long haul. we know, as senator cruz says, that many conservative tea party evangelicals stayed home in the past because they felt uninspired. we want to do our part in changing that. mark: anita dunn said her likeliest nominees are ted cruz,

donald trump, and marco rubio, in no particular order. one of the premises of the the two front , would, trump and carson fade away. we are seeing carson fade away now. trump not fading away at all. stronger than ever. is there a way for ted cruz to win even his bracket, let alone the nomination itself, unless something happens that we haven't seen so far with donald trump? and if so, what is that thing? kellyanne: i am much more realistic than other people who say "when carson handtruck theater with your cope -- "when carson and trump fade away." i read recently that the wealthy donor to maybe bush or somebody else said, sure, i support bush,

but my gardener, nanny, chauffeur, all these other people support from. we can't do anything until we have our own message out. i recognize that donald trump probably has 110% name id. senator cruz, a lot of voters load onormation under senator cruz. they don't know his major impact on american jurisprudence when he argued successfully in front of the supreme court so many times and the impact that has had on our constitutional rights. what did ted cruz before -- ted cruz do before he went to the senate? he is not a political lifer. we want to do some of that background. john: you said you could not imagine it was a world with ted cruz and marco rubio -- the five of them. kellyanne: in that order. john: spending a lot of time on marco rubio, rubio attacking

cruz on surveillance. that battle is starting a little earlier than some people thought. thatanne: the theory is the republicans are going to benefit from this transformational, generational change that has always catapulted the democrat. party has been masterful at elevating and electing these young guys without a ton of experience, jfk, even jimmy carter, and we end up nominating romney, mccain, dole, wonderful americans, i value their service, but that is not the model of this time. these guys in the mid-40's with just a little bit of experience in washington represent a generational, transformational change. here is the other thing that is happening. we believe in super pac world that there are certain deal breakers for the voters, that they just may not be able to get

past. person to rubio, that is clearly the fact that he dropped his bag -- for senator rubio, that is clearly the fact that he dropped his back down, started doing deals with senator schumer. the facts are the facts, he said. rubio fought hard for the amnesty legislation. senator cruz was always against it. mark: we are between reporting periods. how much money are the cruz super pac's sitting on in the banks? kellyanne: we have ample but not unlimited resources. i plan to spend every penny of it. mark: is it more than $60 million? kellyanne: no comment. john: "ample but not unlimited. i'm going to use that in other contexts as we move forward. kellyanne conway, thank you for being here. next, why you should not be surprised by what president

obama has been saying about isis since the paris attacks. ♪

>> this crusade, this war on terrorism is going to take a while. states like these and their terrorist allies constitute an axis of evil. either you are with us or you are with the terrorists. mark: that was, of course, president george w. bush,

talking tough about taking on terrorism. how president obama's rhetoric has differed. taning us, margaret colin -- lev. explain what you think president obama and john kerry are trying to demonstrate in their rhetoric since paris. president obama is obviously not trying to complete undo everything he said for the last seven years when he talked about his approach to terror and foreign policy. he has, for seven years, gone out of his way not to set this up as a contest, not to say that they are axes of evil. in recent weeks and days, certainly, he has really been under pressure to show that he -- sort of some completely underestimating the threat or not taking it seriously enough or not doing enough. you hear him say things like

not thatevil," but isis is part of some evil conspiracy. you hear him saying things much more akin to "nothing to fear but fear itself." i think he has been seeking for years and continuing now to avoid the sort of frenzy that could precede a rush to war, to avoid another major commitment of u.s. ground troops, but when you see brussels shut down for three or four days and francois hollande coming to the united states to try to, you know, sort of show the world that the effort is being taken seriously. present understands that there is a need -- president obama understands that there is a need to do something different, but he is having a little trouble figuring out what. john: he is struggling to figure out where a lot of people in the u.s. and western europe are in terms of their anxiety right

now. is there any sense you get from the white house that they need to recalibrate, to some extent, maybe give a speech to the nation? there is a lot of fear mongering around. there is a lot of genuine and reasonable anxiety about where we stand right now. margaret: sure. i didn't completely understand how the syrian refugee program would be perceived here. this has been an education for the white house. it has flipped across partisan lines. democrats are worried about it also, as our independent -- as are independents. you are beginning to see a little bit of a recalibration, but it is not substance as much as it is rhetoric. -- can see he is dicey about the obama administration itself has fought to be pioneers of using social media. you are beginning to see more on twitter and more on the white

house postings, an effort to say , "look what we are doing to fight isis." here is a video of josh earnest from the podium. lisa, the counterterrorism expert, blogging about what the administration is doing against isis. president obama is resistant to committing ground troops, resistant to no-fly zones. thinks that the idea of sending going tooops in is not solve anything. he has been very aggressive about pushing back on this. how do you resist all these things? he -- aso you say, has he has, i'm going to stay the course, without looking like you are dense and you are not hearing people's fears and frustrations? you have to acknowledge what people are afraid of, without promising more, just as he is saying he is not willing to do more. mark: have you picked up what we have echoed from capitol hill

and from outside advisors, that, while the president wants to be consistent and doesn't want tens of thousands of american troops, that his tone and even his willingness to engage with new ideas is not matched in the mood of the country and the world in the wake of ferrous -- paris? margaret: you are seeing some of that, but i do think you see a subtle recognition by the white house of this. comeshe french president to visit tomorrow, there originally was not going to be a news conference. now there is going to be a news conference. there is a recognition that they need to have the president out there and talking, almost daily reshaping the language. , if heognition that doesn't acknowledge that in his public remarks, he is just going to get hammered for it. when you are the leader of the free world or the leader of any country, there is always this balancing act between doing what you think is right, but representing the people that you

represent also. and in this case, the people have really, american people , have partisan aisles really been pushing him, if he is really interested in targeting isis, he needs to do it in a different way. john: people seized on various things from his press conference in turkey. there were a couple things in his answers that i think did not get the attention that they may be deserved and work in a different mode. let me play that and get your reaction. pres. obama: the muslim community has to think about how that children are not being infected with this twisted notion that somehow they can kill innocent people and that that is justified by religion. and to some degree, that is something that has to come from within the muslim community itself, and i think there have been times where there has not

been enough pushback against extremism. it has been pushed back. there are some who say, well, we don't believe in violence, but are not as willing to challenge some of the extremist thoughts muslimsnales for why feel oppressed, and i think those ideas have to be challenged. mark: that's not the first time we have heard the president say such things, talking relatively tough toward the muslim world. are the white house and the president frustrated with the facts that those kind of comments, when he makes them, don't get more attention, especially from conservatives, who with like to hear that kind of message coming from him -- who would like to hear that kind of message coming from him? margaret: the conservative frustration has much more to do

with his disinterest in engaging militarily than it does in talking about what muslims can do in terms of u.s. strategy. in terms of his experience growing up for some period of and the waysesia he has talked about growing up african-american in the united states, these cultural interfaces -- this is really heartfelt on his part. i don't think it is strategic, as much as it is his opinion. john: thank you, margaret. we look forward to seeing what happens at the press conference. up next, a donald check fact check unlike you have -- a donald trump back-checked unlike you have ever seen. ♪ mark: over the past two

governments, americans have become students of trying to decipher the connections between mind and hiss math. one involves general ray odierno. mp doesn't know how to say the last name. that hasn't stopped him from saying it again and again. is worriedodierno about the deep cuts to the army. mr. trump: there was a general, -- n't use his name just the other day, general odierno said that -- when g left --dierno i said, he is leaving.

>> general odierno. odierno saidneral on television that we are the worst prepared we've ever been in our nation, our military. o-d-air-no. we will be right back. ♪

john: i woke up this morning and realized that we only have a three-day workweek this week, which is a delight for me. a little more time for the politicians and the people who work for them. what's the challenge involved to

try to get your political message out? some of these campaigners trying to get it done just before the holidays. mark: congress is away, but the president is having a big press conference tomorrow with the president of france. we take this into next year and then iowa. they will have to deal with holidays, getting their message out even while people are celebrating holidays this is the first test run of this -- holidays. this is the first test run of this. to the iowa used caucus coming right after new year's. this year, we have a full month of january. i think things are going to go into a deep freeze for december. january is going to be a crazy month as we head toward those first votes. mark: we are like all the time on our website, bloomberg politics.com -- bloombergpolitics.com. guru tomorrow, our data

will join us to talk about his forthcoming story about a new kind of weird profiling technique they use in new hampshire. i can't wait for that story. mark will be back in new york city. sayl then, for myanmar, i for me andsper -- mark i say sayonara. ♪

chang and youly are watching "bloomberg west." let's get you started.

the state department has issued a worldwide alert as threats of terrorism have intensified. alert,s remains on high though officials say schools and subways may reopen wednesday in the belgian capital. authorities charged a fourth person with terrorism related offenses today and plan to keep the alert at the highest level until next monday. french fighter jets are now flying missions targeting the islamic state in iraq. they are the first to be deployed from the charles de gaulle aircraft carrier. explosive belt was found in a pile of rubble. officials say it was packed with explosives used in the attacks. vladimir putin pledging to expand ties between tehran and moscow. has offered a $5 million loan to iran. he made his first visit