mark: with all due respect, there are enough cat pictures already on the internet. on our show tonight, the tv war, the data war, and the trump war, but first, the actual war. the president of france, francois hollande, stopped by today to visit with president obama. his visit was, gated by news that turkey shot down a russian airplane for -- visit was

turkeyated by news that shot down a russian airplane for allegedly violating its airspace. anyident obama shook off distraction and used the joint press conference to show a bit more emotion and a bit more defiance. president obama: this barbaric terrorist group and its murderous ideology pose a serious threat to all of us. it cannot be tolerated. it must be destroyed, and we must do it together. make no mistake area we will win and groups like isis will lose. -- make no mistake, we will win, and groups like isil will lose. mark: he also reminisced about his time in paris with his wife and showed some emotion. people who wanted him to show

more defiance and more emotion, where they pacified today? john: those criticizing him. he on partisan grounds will not be placated by this performance. -- those criticizing him purely on partisan grounds will not be placated by this performance. they will not the placated by anything. but he said all the things democrats would want to hear him say. mark: he sat side-by-side with the french president. while there are subtle differences, none of them were aired in public. isn: the tricky thing now what happens as francois hollande goes to russia to see putin. that is now almost as much of a crisis, not as much of a crisis as isil, but the exits done show what isf isis aside, going to happen in turkey with this down to russian jet? they seem to be working with

obama to deescalate that, but of course, they are all going to be together in paris not that long from now. thing i thought was good for the president today was that he put into context the reality that there are not going to be ground troops going in any time soon. he talked about sharing intelligence, the diplomatic getting bashar al-assad out long-term, more coordinated air strikes. these are all things the president describes not changing in any fundamental way, but accelerating things, standing side-by-side with the french president, talking about why it matters, not talking about drone strikes, but again, talking about doing the right thing, and i think it came across in a better way today than it has. john: that's true. the two this image of of them together.

again, it sent the right signal, obama said the right things, but now what? what happens now in terms of u.s. involvement, in terms of , what next?e does see: you are not going to more demand that there be people coming to their defense. i don't think you are going to see arab troops, saudi troops, or any muslim troops as part of a ground force. i think the big thing is the posture. the president is trying to convince putin that there is a way for russia to preserve its interests in syria without a solid -- without bashar al-assad staying in power. you could see some real deals made that could step up the efforts against isis. john: there has been movement in this area for a long time.

the president said today there could be a hugely constructive role for russia to play if it will shift from a bombing campaign to trying to help takeout isil. that has an infinitely greater chance of success if it is undertaken not just by per barack obama, but by francois hollande and others in the european union. if europeans -- if russia can to a world clear of , in the long range, you could imagine a co-mingling of interests that would end up in the right place. much focus on so france in the united states. merkel is quiet, for obvious

reasons. cameron is not quiet, but he is not talking about anything but rallying more airstrikes. john: the problem for republicans here, someone like lindsey graham who says we must go and send a bunch of ground troops then, it's hard to make the argument not just in context of history but in the context of a french president who doesn't want the west to be the forces who takeout isil. people can say the obama idea of continuing to grind it out, accelerate what has artie alreadye, -- what is being done, that is good enough, of ground troops is too big. john: i think a lot depends on what happens next. is there another incident? if something happens between now and christmas that is isis driven on foreign soil, that is

going to change the whole calculus for everybody. when we come back, which republican candidate should donald trump fear the most right now? we will share our thoughts on that in 60 seconds.

mark: today, canopy accu diversity rolled out a new iowa poll that puts the muck -- quinnipiac university rolled out a new iowa poll. according to the numbers, ted cruz is surging in the hawkeye state. he has more than doubled his support from last month.

he is in a statistical tie with trump. ben carson dropped 10 points. it begs the following question. with two months before the iowa caucus and half a dozen candidates auditioning for the role of trumps layer, who is in , who is in the best position to snare the part? will it be chris christie, marco , jeb bush, or ted cruz? , that's only a few of the potential contestants in the trump slayer dating game. who will it be? mark: impossible to know. they'll have strengths. 's super pac kasich

is taking on trump. this race is going to require a candidate who can stand up to trump on a range of issues and battle hymn day to day with good humor, kneeling, and power -- battle him day to day today with power.mor, needling, and so far, they remain on positive terms. has been playing possum a little bit. has anf all, he imperative. he must get rid of donald trump or he cannot be the candidate. everybody else. john: in order to be at the top of the antiestablishment lane, get rid of trump, and then deal with whoever is at the top of the establishment lane. if trumpa theory that

comes in second or third in iowa, that could be the end. rubio has advertising paid for by a shadowy group on his behalf. ted cruz has been pommel by rubio, and back and forth. rubio has attacked ted cruz more than ted cruz has attacked rubio, by all measures, yet ted cruz has risen. i think the undervalued people are chris christie and jeb bush. they have the potential, simply by virtue of the establishment saying we need an establishment player. you: i half agree with about that. the half i agree with his chris christie. i have been bearish on him ever since bridge-gate. at the temperamental, skills, humor, toughness, he is the guy who can do it.

bush is neverh going to embrace this role. mark: here is the thing. kristi has had no negative press for weeks. he had -- chris christie has had no negative press for weeks. he is reminding people why they like him. bush has faced a lot of negativity. look, i was bullish on ted cruz before you were, i was bullish on chris christie's comeback before you were. have ah can still comeback. it's not going to be easy, but if the establishment is looking for someone to stop donald trump and ted cruz, jeb and his money can. john: i do not deny the possibility of a bush come back, but not to take on donald trump. have the candidate skills required, where his chris

christie has lots of problems with the republican nominating electorate, but he has the actual skills to take on trump. we have seen trump tried to take him on in a number of debates and fall flat every time. mark: you probably think charlie brown is going to one day kick that football. the other person's marco rubio. as much as he is not engaged in heavy contact with anybody at this point, is he a potential player, in your view? his profile on paper, rubio has always looked like a potentially strong republican nominee. but you look like donald -- look at donald trump and marco rubio, try to put them in a ring together and say who is going to win that fight, it's hard for me to muster the conviction to say marco rubio going to win that battle. mark: when trump has said

outrageous things and rubio has he laughs about it, it off in a way that seems genuine. others try to laugh it off but it looks like acting. the staff said laugh it off. rubio actually laughs it off. i think there is a potential strength there. if the establishment turns to him i think he may not be rattled and may be able to make light of donald trump as a genuine player. these people are trying to appear like the candidate of strength on foreign policy. to republican voters by that? i just don't know if that's a cell he will be able to make. sell he will be able to make. early --, the other the utterly irresistible albert

will weigh in on barack obama when we come back. ♪

our first guest is al hunt. he joins us from washington, d.c. president, today, after having spent a decent interval a decent interval abroad and taking a lot of criticism about his reaction to the attacks in paris stood shoulder to shoulder with francois hollande today. how do you think he did? al: he recovered.

i agree with what you said earlier. when he was europe asked about this, he was critical. a lot of people believe he has been demagogic. is serious. and even if people are scared, the job of the president is to reassure. he did not do that in europe last week. he did do it today. they realize they made a mistake last week. you wrote a column about hillary clinton's weaknesses. even though by some measures she is doing better. who is she week with and why? al: if we were all asked who we thought was most likely to be the next president, we would all say hillary at this stage. look at her standing right now. take young voters. i will give you a startling statistic. both barack obama and bill

clinton had a 60% approval rating among 18-29-year-olds. 19%is 30% positive, negative. that group provided the winning margin for barack obama. do we know why they like her less? al: i am not totally sure. the e-mail thing was handled poorly. mark: what else would give you concern right now? al: independents. she has very low ratings among independents. she doesn't have to win independents in the general election, but she has to come close, and she is not close by herself. againstn, she will run

someone and that will change the dynamics. mark: mitt romney did pretty well with independents but lost. they also think they will do what barack obama did to mitt romney, disqualify the nominee. can't always count on the other guys being bums. it may happen, but you also have to be a good choice yourself. john: i know you have talked for a long time about ted cruz being an undervalued stock. that stock is now rising appreciably. do you share our sense that he is one of the potential contenders to go toe to toe with trump? al: i think he is the leading contender. i do.

think about the criticisms that will be leveled at him and how the grassroots will respond to that. one, the establishment in washington hates him. check. good for ted. the bushes hate him. good for ted. some say he is a mean guy. he has a bunch of money. he is disciplined. he puts things together and knows what he is going to do. even donald trump is going to have a hard time going mono on mono with ted cruz. the major parties are generally people who have had success in their lives. they are great politicians and they have a lot of people going back in the jobs they have done who come out and say how much they like him. ted cruz is that like that. his colleagues in the senate don't like him. george w. bush has singled him

out for criticism. can you be a major political of theominee if most people in your path find you and likable? richard nixon was on the national ticket five times. it didn't seem to be a disqualifier for him. i would have said is six months ago you have to be smoking something to think donald trump is going to be the leader for four or five months. i think the environment is different than it was before. i am not even sure it is going to be a liability this time. ask you about the rubio-ted cruz conflict. hasense is the rubio's side been more aggressive in going after ted cruz than ted cruz has in going after rubio. they are both rising in the polls, so maybe it is not hurting either of them.

al: i think it basically is that, mark. and i agree with one of you who said that he has been playing possum. when he goes on the attack, rubio is a skillful politician. but if you are going to give me a choice between marco rubio attacking me or ted cruz, i will take rubio. how do you think he is positioned after this last debate? a lot of the establishment is saying alright, this is it, the money is going to flow to rubio. the polls but in the money has not flooded to him. howdy you think rubio is currently situated as the establishment choice -- how do you think rubio is currently situated as the establishment choice? but there ared,

several forces that have marco right now.eir target hillary, ted cruz, and democrats. if he can withstand that assault, he will be pretty fermentable. john: you -- formidable. john: im going to ask you to weigh in on a fundamental dispute. john ellis bush bush, dead? or is there still a comeback in that man? al: boy, i tell you, if he is not dead, he is close to it. i just can't see the pathway. there are a lot of things i have i don't seen, but him energizing anybody anymore. , ted cruz, john kasich, marco rubio, who do you think will finish first in iowa?

al: rubio. think whoever finishes tops in the establishment lane in iowa will be the nominee. alkyl and especially if someone like rubio or one of the others -- shes with somebody like if rubio or one of the others finishes at the top of the pack in iowa and does well in new hampshire in the next couple of days. or fourthnd, third, even in iowa, but the top establishment finisher and then first or second in new hampshire, i think rubio could do that. al: they have to get to florida first. if one of them doesn't do well in one of those early states,

they are not going to get to florida. john: you have to spend so much wisdom, we will be cleaning up the floor for days. to put a g aack on jihad on the media and the way they have been disgracefully covering donald trump. john: i would not want to see that. we will be back after this word from our sponsor. ♪

>> that is a new from marco rubio's campaign. it will run in new hampshire next week. here's you talk about the state of the battle is at penn -- a professor, our friend can. this weekend, marco rubio put out a spot. ad is 62nd and it talks about his father story. they say it is for broadcast tv. what is going on with the campaign and strategy? >> this is the first foray into significant paid media.

media,traight to camera they are getting a bunch of free media coverage and speaking to national primary coverage electorate. the ad you just showed is focused on the four early states. i will, new hampshire, nevada. marco rubio's people have put in significant orders, nearly $20 million, before the new hampshire primary. it will not all be on this ad but they are engaged in those four states. and what is interesting, going about what you were talking about four. is dog that is not barking the other three. trump, cruise and carson are not engaged at all with advertising. >> there has been some coverage talking about how rubio is getting more -- with

advertising. you think that is not going to last? explain why that is the case and explain the dynamics about how these get negotiated. the question i have dreamt about forever is the nerd advertising guy. so listen, for many beers people, -- for many years, people focus too much on the dollar. we haveiscussed and as discussed, canada dollars are not the same, they are more valuable. in thengs are swinging other direction, now especially in terms of analysis. so look at the spot that rubio made. and stop me if i get to geeky, but what will arise will get much mescaline -- much less than rubio. that is true. to rise is generally

buying fixed, non-preempt will rates. so there adds at that time at that rate. it will guarantee it will air. marco rubio has ordered the ad. becausetes will rise they have brought preemptive will time. so if a super pac comes along and wants to buy other space or other candidates, his ad is not necessarily going to clear at that rate. >> rubio has not just been supported by these ads, it has been supported by another ad group that has been advertising for quite some time on his behalf. his poll numbers have just gone up. is there any reason to believe that advertising is helping rubio as opposed to the positive coverage he has gotten out of the debates? you were deciding which has had more of an impact, it is

clearly the orange media and the positive media coming out of the debates. this is his chance to introduce himself with paid media. and in the same way and offensive coordinator or a football coach scribbles out the first 10 plays, and is what the first 10 plays of an ad airport looks like. when you are putting out your biographical response. whene is putting that out the airways are still not too cluttered. at the end of the day, this sort of thing is going to only matter as a margin. it will move numbers in a big way. seen rubio's momentum influenced by his momentum with the debates. we talk a lot about the ad action in south carolina. talk about why, south carolina? why is it seeing so much activity? surprise, ilittle

was looking at the ad activity over the last 30 days or going forward and with the combination of democrats and republicans -- we haven't talked about this, but in iowa and new hampshire, bernie sanders and hillary clinton are fully engaged, but where the action is in the republican primary with something like right to rise, a conservative solutions project, is rubio, charleston, s.c. the place where the most action is when it comes to ads in the republican race. >> interesting. he wouldn't have expected that. i will ask you one more thing. marco rubio looks young. is that a problem? ken: i looked at that biographical ad and it is beautiful done -- it is beautifully done. butve to the first time

when i listen to it the second time, i had the same reaction seemsou did area he young. he doesn't seem like a commander-in-chief. it is beautiful and scripted with great lighting but it did sound young. >> something to watch. ken goldstein, thank you very much. up next, we are behind the music of a classical violinist. and also we will take you inside the studio where -- is cutting the christmas album when we come back. ♪

>> every four years, returning to make it our business to get to know the potential first ladies. that led us to candy carson. she sings and she has invited us to alabama where she is working on a christmas album. we talked to her about life and the campaign. >> 1, 2, 3. try to get a quick breath at the end of those. on friday nights, if we are home, and i am on the piano, that is usually after dinner. ♪ hedy: sometimes i'll ask if

has fallen asleep listening to for asic and he will ask song and i say i played it a way of ago. he will say, can you play it again? ♪ will you please help me welcome mrs. candy carson. >> we are all connected. the finance team, with the administrative work. america, america ♪ candy: i thought it would be nice to introduce them on this album. i think it came out pretty well. do you see what i is the

do i see what you see. candy: my mom was very organized. when i was 10, i had already started violin and she said that if i get you a flute, will you play it? i could get out of chores, i thought, this is cool. ♪ candy: and i played in the symphony. i was premed but i was also music and site. as we were driving back the next hit youngstown, ohio, it was dark and we both fell asleep. 90 miles per hour. when the car started to go on the gravel, you could feel the vibration and he moved the wheel in the opposite direction and we were going at 90 miles per hour. car wentollection, my

around in a circle a few times, itpped by itself, then said did not touch the brakes, and started going in the right direction in the right lane. we felt that god had a purpose for our lives. >> come on, i know you can give them a south alabama welcome. >> thank you very much. thank you. candy: it is packing up every day, a different hotel every day. it is not brain surgery. that is what he would say. not as stressful or demanding. when you are doing neurosurgery and you have somebody's life in your hands and you have to make minute cut so that you know that if you sneeze or whatever, that person lost their hearing or something? man for the job.

he's a fixer. he is not doing this because of any glory. he was ready to retire. and i was ready for him to retire. i want my husband back. it didn't work out that way. sometimes the lord has a different plan for our lives. you just have to listen. ♪ candy: we have about a million donations, most of them, at least three quarters of them are $50 or less. and i think that is god's way of saying yes, you need to keep going. ♪ day we rise ee

[applause] >> our thanks to kandi carson and our reporter. she is obviously a really impressive woman with an impressive voice. do you think she has been well used politically by the carson campaign so far? she does a lot of campaigning behind the scenes. i have been surprised by how low profile all of the spouses have been. some like mrs. bush, they do nothing at all. i think you will see a lot of them come to the forefront in the next couple of weeks. but i have been surprised, much different than in the past. john: think about michelle obama, elizabeth edwards. superstars on the stage and they

all have huge political schedules. this year, it is amazing. i think republican voters have not gotten to know these people. so far, surprisingly little. coming up, why your high school yearbook might be helping john kasich and how jerry seinfeld is metaphorically implicated. we will be right back. ♪

>> there is a fascinating story up right now on bloomberg politics.com by sasha eisenberg. an unusual technique used to

target voters in new hampshire. better, it isthat time for us to head to the victory lap. beakers and everything else. thank you for joining us. targeting is something now that every candidate does. what is different about this for case rick's super pac? we have heard a lot in the past year about super pac's. they have a program called targeted sharing. up a list of friends and the campaign tells them who and they will persuasion target supporters to call or e-mail them. you look as a republican primary election and those are the folks who are most likely to vote republican and who are least

likely to be on facebook or active on facebook. also, when you look at the obama model, you need supporters to opt in. and if you want to reach out to people who are not active supporters, you need a another strategy. and a lot of that is on the internet. these are the same folks who are putting out the -- at the moment, they started applecart. and they use a social graph using analog sources. so they are going by high school yearbooks. they are going to overture areas, they are looking at amateur sports leagues to see who know somebody from their roster. they are scraping the pages of law firms or coworkers. they are mapping the world in which voters actually live to understand the people they are connected to. john: so this isn't going

off-line. get -- set out to build a graph on facebook. so give us an example of how this would get constructed. sasha: so the new hampshire that the john say kasich folks figure out that he lives in a world where his colleagues are likely to be his supporters and he is too. ,o you talk to your neighbor and then his friends, george and , and hisnd his parents extended family, uncle leo, and his coworkers -- they are using these different sources. newman is not up there because he is a classic trump voter. and each of these are giving a connection depending on how close they are to jerry.

that cramer fact lives next door, that gives him a stronger connection than george. and instead of coming into a new and callingnk people indiscriminately, they can prioritize people who are most likely to be at the center of this universe. a call him a social anchor. mark: so they are using this not just to reach voters that also to endorse them. sasha: take an elected official that they want to reach. -- a u.s. senator in new hampshire, and they want to find the people who are around her. one of the challenges of the super pac is that they can't do the work on the campaign for endorsing her. but they want her neighbors and colleagues. exactly. later, we will

see direct mail focus on the people around her and then she will think, john kasich has something going on. so -- mark: what does this firm have? what do they bring? heard people talk about the goal of doing this and the limitations on facebook and twitter. there is a lot of work that needs to be done. some of these things are only on paper is like high school yearbooks. so the question is whether it is , to see whether before you call uncle leo, you call cramer. they are doing this internationally because they are using this for fundraising. sasha: is -- john: is this company unique in doing this? sasha: i have never seen a campaign or super pac take this

on. and when you compare the john jeb bush'sr pac to super pac or marco rubio's super pac, they are making a much better contact. unlike the right to rise tv super pac, i think it speaks not only to what they think they are doing but also to what the john kasich campaign is doing. did this company start out by thinking purely about politics? sasha: yes. has been inresource politics but they are thinking about corporate applications. just because somebody went to high school with you or is your neighbor doesn't necessarily mean they will share your politics. so how do you know that just because someone is close to jerry seinfeld, that they might also be persuaded to vote for charter seinfeld's candidate? there are a lot of

statistical models to determine how likely you are to vote for the candidate or if you are pro-choice or poke on -- or pro-gun. whether you have voted in primaries before. and overlaying that on top of the social graph. that you ares prioritizing contact to people who you think are likely to are alsoou but who packed into the clusters of people who know each other. so if you recruit one volunteer in that world, you think you can pull another. mark: thank you for explaining that to us. when we come back, we will to you about karl rove. after this. ♪

>> we are all in it twice today but we are always live on bloomberg politics.com. you can check out the campaign tracker. john: tomorrow's pre-thanksgiving show will be super times two. we will have a chinese super chef on the set. karl rove will be on the set. we will let you guess whose book is whose. until then. ♪

emily: i am emily chang and you are watching "bloomberg west." tensions escalate between turkey and russia after the turks

should down a russian fighter jet. plane enteredar turkish airspace before it was shut down. vladimir putin called it a shot -- he called it a stab in the back. a curfew and a state of emergency has been declared in tunisia after an explosion in the city. a bus was targeted and at least 12 people were killed. more violence in north africa -- --s time a suicide arming suicide bombing. belgian authorities have charged a fifth suspect. withrities say -- was seen salah abdeslam. lockout is expected to begin to ease tomorrow, that is when the subway at school system will start to reopen.