mark: with all due respect, there are enough cat pictures already on the internet. ♪ mark: on our show tonight, the tv war, the data war, and the trump war, but first, the actual war. the president of france, françois hollande, stopped by today to visit with president obama. his visit was complicated by news that turkey shot down a russian airplane for allegedly violating its airspace. president obama shook off any

distraction and used the joint press conference to show a bit more emotion and a bit more defiance. president obama: this barbaric terrorist group and its murderous ideology pose a serious threat to all of us. it cannot be tolerated. it must be destroyed, and we must do it together. make no mistake, we will win, and groups like isil will lose. and standing with allies like france, we will show the best of american leadership. mark: he also reminisced about his time in paris with his wife and showed some emotion. people who wanted him to show more defiance and more emotion, where they pacified today? john: those criticizing him

purely on partisan grounds will not be placated by this performance. they will not the placated by anything. but he said all the things democrats would want to hear him say. mark: he sat side-by-side with the french president. while there are subtle differences, none of them were aired in public. john: the tricky thing now is what happens as francois hollande goes to russia to see putin. that is now almost as much of a crisis, not as much of a crisis as isil, but the exits done show threat of isis aside, what is going to happen in turkey with this down to russian jet? that is a serious problem that nato has to work. they seem to be working with obama to deescalate that, but of course, they are all going to be

together in paris not that long from now. mark: the other thing i thought was good for the president today was that he put into context the reality that there are not going to be ground troops going in any time soon. he talked about sharing intelligence, the diplomatic track, getting bashar al-assad out long-term, more coordinated air strikes. these are all things the president describes not changing in any fundamental way, but accelerating things, standing side-by-side with the french president, talking about why it matters, not talking about drone strikes, but again, talking about doing the right thing, and i think it came across in a better way today than it has. john: that's true. you have this image of the two

of them together. again, it sent the right signal, obama said the right things, but now what? what happens now in terms of u.s. involvement, in terms of what hollande does, what next? mark: you are not going to see more demand that there be people coming to their defense. i don't think you are going to see arab troops, saudi troops, or any muslim troops as part of a ground force. i think the big thing is the posture. the president is trying to convince putin that there is a way for russia to preserve its interests in syria without bashar al-assad staying in power. you could see some real deals made that could step up the efforts against isis. john: there has been movement in this area for a long time.

the president said today there could be a hugely constructive role for russia to play if it will shift from a bombing campaign to trying to help takeout isil. that has an infinitely greater chance of success if it is undertaken not just by per barack obama, but by françois hollande and others in the european union. if russia can see a way to a world clear of isil, in the long range, you could imagine a co-mingling of interests that would end up in the right place. mark: there is so much focus on france in the united states. merkel is quiet, for obvious reasons. cameron is not quiet, but he is not talking about anything but rallying more airstrikes. john: the problem for republicans here, someone like lindsey graham who says we must

go and send a bunch of ground troops then, it's hard to make that argument not just in the context of history but in the context of a french president who doesn't want the west to be the forces who takeout isil. mark: people can say the obama idea of continuing to grind it out, accelerate what is already being done, that is good enough, and the influx of ground troops is too big. john: i think a lot depends on what happens next. is there another incident? if something happens between now and christmas that is isis driven on foreign soil, that is going to change the whole calculus for everybody. mark: when we come back, which republican candidate should donald trump fear the most right

now? we will share our thoughts on that in 60 seconds. ♪

mark: today, quinnipiac university rolled out a new iowa poll. according to the numbers, ted cruz is surging in the hawkeye state. he has more than doubled his support from last month. he is in a statistical tie with

trump. ben carson dropped 10 points. it begs the following question. with two months before the iowa caucus and half a dozen candidates auditioning for the role of trump slayer, who is in the best position to snare the part? will it be chris christie, marco rubio, jeb bush, or ted cruz? mark, that's only a few of the potential contestants in the trump slayer dating game. who will it be? mark: impossible to know. they all have strengths. i think john kasich's super pac is taking on trump. this race is going to require a candidate who can stand up to

trump on a range of issues and battle him day to day today with good humor, needling, and power. i would say today, ted cruz if you look at the map and resources, he may be the guy who can play him you know they still farming on positive turn -- terms. john: ted cruz has been playing possum a little bit. first of all, he has an imperative. he must get rid of donald trump or he cannot be the candidate. mark: so must everybody else. john: in order to be at the top of the antiestablishment lane, he has to get rid of trump, and then deal with whoever is at the top of the establishment lane. he now has momentum in iowa. there is a theory that if trump comes in second or third in iowa, that could be the end.

mark: rubio has advertising paid for by a shadowy group on his behalf. ted cruz has been pommel by rubio, and back and forth. rubio has attacked ted cruz more than ted cruz has attacked rubio, by all measures, yet ted cruz has risen. i think the undervalued people are chris christie and jeb bush. they have the potential, simply by virtue of the establishment saying we need an establishment player. john: i half agree with you about that. the half i agree with his chris christie. i have been bearish on him ever since bridge-gate. at the temperamental, skills, humor, toughness, he is the guy who can do it. john ellis bush bush is never going to embrace this role.

trump has just incinerated him too much. mark: here is the thing. chris christie has had no negative press for weeks. he is reminding people why they like him. bush has faced a lot of negativity. look, i was bullish on ted cruz before you were, i was bullish on chris christie's comeback before you were. jeb bush can still have a comeback. it's not going to be easy, but if the establishment is looking for someone to stop donald trump and ted cruz, jeb and his money can. john: i do not deny the possibility of a bush come back, but not to take on donald trump. he does not have the candidate skills required, where his chris christie has lots of problems with the republican nominating

electorate, but he has the actual skills to take on trump. we have seen trump tried to take him on in a number of debates and fall flat every time. mark: you probably think charlie brown is going to one day kick that football. the other person's marco rubio. as much as he is not engaged in heavy contact with anybody at this point, is he a potential player, in your view? john: in his profile on paper, rubio has always looked like a potentially strong republican nominee. but you look at donald trump and marco rubio, try to put them in a ring together and say who is going to win that fight, it's hard for me to muster the conviction to say marco rubio going to win that battle. mark: when trump has said outrageous things and rubio has been asked about it, he laughs

it off in a way that seems genuine. others try to laugh it off but it looks like acting. the staff said laugh it off. rubio actually laughs it off. i think there is a potential strength there. if the establishment turns to him i think he may not be rattled and may be able to make light of donald trump as a genuine player. john: all of these people are trying to appear like the candidate of strength on foreign policy. to republican voters by that? i just don't know if that's a sell he will be able to make. coming up, the utterly irresistible al hunt will weigh in on barack obama when we come back. ♪

john: our first guest is al hunt. he joins us from washington, d.c. the president, today, after having spent a decent interval a decent interval abroad and taking a lot of criticism about his reaction to the attacks in paris stood shoulder to shoulder with françois hollande today. how do you think he did? al: he recovered. i agree with what you said

earlier. last week in europe when he was asked about this, he was critical. a lot of people believe he has been demagogic. but this is serious. and even if people are scared, the job of the president is to reassure. he did not do that in europe last week. he did do it today. they realize they made a mistake last week. mark: you wrote a column about hillary clinton's weaknesses. even though by some measures she is doing better. who is she week with and why? al: if we were all asked who we thought was most likely to be the next president, we would all say hillary at this stage. look at her standing right now. take young voters. i will give you a startling statistic. both barack obama and bill clinton had a 60% approval rating among 18-29-year-olds.

she is 30% positive, 19% negative. that group provided the winning margin for barack obama. mark: do we know why they like her less? al: i am not totally sure. the e-mail thing was handled poorly. mark: what else would give you concern right now? al: independents. she has very low ratings among independents. she doesn't have to win independents in the general election, but she has to come close, and she is not close by herself. but again, she will run against someone and that will change the dynamics. mark: mitt romney did pretty

well with independents but lost. they also think they will do what barack obama did to mitt romney, disqualify the nominee. al: you can't always count on the other guys being bums. it may happen, but you also have to be a good choice yourself. john: i know you have talked for a long time about ted cruz being an undervalued stock. that stock is now rising appreciably. do you share our sense that he is one of the potential contenders to go toe to toe with trump? al: i think he is the leading contender. i do. think about the criticisms that will be leveled at him and how the grassroots will respond to that.

one, the establishment in washington hates him. check. good for ted. the bushes hate him. good for ted. some say he is a mean guy. he has a bunch of money. he is disciplined. he puts things together and knows what he is going to do. even donald trump is going to have a hard time going mono on mono with ted cruz. john: the major parties are generally people who have had success in their lives. they are great politicians and they have a lot of people going back in the jobs they have done who come out and say how much they like him. ted cruz is that like that. his colleagues in the senate don't like him. george w. bush has singled him out for criticism.

can you be a major political party nominee if most of the people in your path find you and likable? al: well, richard nixon was on the national ticket five times. it didn't seem to be a disqualifier for him. i would have said is six months ago you have to be smoking something to think donald trump is going to be the leader for four or five months. i think the environment is different than it was before. i am not even sure it is going to be a liability this time. mark: let me ask you about the rubio-ted cruz conflict. my sense is the rubio's side has been more aggressive in going after ted cruz than ted cruz has in going after rubio. they are both rising in the polls, so maybe it is not hurting either of them. al: i think it basically is that, mark. and i agree with one of you who said that he has been playing possum.

when he goes on the attack, rubio is a skillful politician. but if you are going to give me a choice between marco rubio attacking me or ted cruz, i will take rubio. mark: how do you think he is positioned after this last debate? a lot of the establishment is saying alright, this is it, the money is going to flow to rubio. he has gone up in the polls but the money has not flooded to him. how do you think rubio is currently situated as the establishment choice? al: pretty good, but there are several forces that have marco

rubio in their target right now. jeb bush, ted cruz, and hillary democrats. if he can withstand that assault, he will be pretty formidable. john: im going to ask you to weigh in on a fundamental dispute. john ellis bush bush, dead? or is there still a comeback in that man? al: boy, i tell you, if he is not dead, he is close to it. i just can't see the pathway. there are a lot of things i have been wrong on, but i don't see him energizing anybody anymore. mark: of bush, ted cruz, john kasich, marco rubio, who do you think will finish first in iowa? al: rubio. mark: i think whoever finishes tops in the establishment lane

in iowa will be the nominee. al: especially if somebody like rubio or one of the others finishes at the top of the pack in iowa and does well in new hampshire in the next couple of days. mark: second, third, or fourth even in iowa, but the top establishment finisher and then first or second in new hampshire, i think rubio could do that. al: they have to get to florida first. if one of them doesn't do well in one of those early states, they are not going to get to florida. john: you have to spend so much wisdom, we will be cleaning up the floor for days.

al: have me back on to put a jihad on the media and the way they have been disgracefully not trump. -- not covering donald trump. john: i would not want to see that. we will be back after this word from our sponsor. ♪

>> my father was grateful for the work he had. but is not the life he wanted

for his children. he wanted all the doors that closed for him to open to me. my father stood in the back of the room for all those years so i could stand behind this podium in front of this room. mark: that is a new from marco rubio's campaign. it will run in new hampshire next week. here's you talk about the state of the primary battle is our friend ken goldstein. this weekend, marco rubio put out a spot. 32ndthen this ad talks about his father's story. they say it is for broadcast tv. what is going on with the campaign and strategy? -- add strategy? >> this is the first foray into significant paid media. it is straight to camera media,

they are getting a bunch of free media coverage and speaking to national primary coverage electorate. the ad you just showed is focused on the four early states. i will, new hampshire, nevada. marco rubio's people have put in significant orders, nearly $20 million, before the new hampshire primary. it will not all be on this ad but they are engaged in those four states. and what is interesting, going about what you were talking about before. the dog that is not barking is the other three. you have that poll showing trump, ted cruz, carson not engaged at all with advertising. >> there has been some coverage talking about how rubio is getting more bang for his buck

with advertising. you think that is not going to last? explain why that is the case and explain the dynamics about how these get negotiated. >> the question i have dreamt about forever is the nerd advertising guy. so listen, for many beers people, -- for many years, people focus too much on the dollar. as you discussed and as we have discussed on the candidate dollars are not the same, they are more valuable. but things are swinging in the other direction, now especially in terms of analysis. so look at the spot that rubio made. and stop me if i get to geeky, but what will arise will get much less than rubio. that is true. but right to rise is generally buying fixed, non-preempt will rates.

so there adds at that time at that rate. it will guarantee it will air. marco rubio has ordered the ad. those rates will rise because they have brought preemptive time. so if a super pac comes along and wants to buy other space or other candidates, his ad is not necessarily going to clear at that rate. mark rubio has not just been : supported by these ads, it has been supported by another ad group that has been advertising for quite some time on his behalf. his poll numbers have just gone up. is there any reason to believe that advertising is helping rubio as opposed to the positive coverage he has gotten out of the debates? ken: if you were deciding which has had more of an impact, it is

clearly the earned media and the positive media coming out of the debates. this is his chance to introduce himself with paid media. and in the same way and offensive coordinator or a football coach scribbles out the first 10 plays, and is what the first 10 plays of an ad airport looks like. looks like. when you are putting out your biographical response. and he is putting that out when the airways are still not too cluttered. at the end of the day, this sort of thing is going to only matter as a margin. it will move numbers in a big way. we have seen rubio's momentum influenced by his momentum with the debates. john: we talk a lot about the ad action in south carolina. your super interested in the action in south carolina right now. talk about why it's interesting and why it is seeing so much activity? ken: i am a little surprise, i was looking at the ad activity over the last 30 days or going

and with the combination of democrats and republicans -- we haven't talked about this, but in iowa and new hampshire, bernie sanders and hillary clinton are fully engaged, but where the action is in the republican primary with something like right to rise, a conservative solutions project, for rubio, charleston, s.c. is the place where the most action is when it comes to ads in the republican race. mark interesting. : he wouldn't have expected that. i will ask you one more thing. marco rubio looks young. is that a problem? ken: i looked at that biographical ad and it is beautifully done. i love to the first time but when i listen to it the second time, i had the same reaction

that you did. he seems young. he doesn't seem like a commander-in-chief. it is beautiful and scripted with great lighting but it did sound young. mark: something to watch. ken goldstein, thank you very much. up next, we are behind the music of a classical violinist. and also we will take you inside the studio where she is cutting her christmas album when we come back. ♪

every four years, returning to john make it our business to get : to know the potential first ladies. that led us to candy carson. she sings and she has invited us to alabama where she is working on a christmas album. we talked to her about life and the campaign. >> 1, 2, 3. breathe. ♪ >> try to get a quick breath at the end of those. on friday nights, if we are home, and i am on the piano, that is usually after dinner. ♪ candy: sometimes i'll ask if he has fallen asleep listening to the music and he will ask for a song and i say i played it a way of ago. he will say, can you play it

again? ♪ >> will you please help me welcome mrs. candy carson. >> we are all connected. >> i am on the finance team, with the administrative work. >> ♪ america, america candy: i thought it would be nice to introduce them on this album. i think it came out pretty well. >> ♪ do you see what i is the do i see what you see. candy: my mom was very

organized. she required all of us play keyboard and one other instrumentals to when i was 10, i had already started violin and she said that if i get you a flute, will you play it? i could get out of chores, i thought, this is cool. ♪ candy: and i played in the symphony. i was premed but i was also music and site. as we were driving back the next day, when we hit youngstown, ohio, it was dark and we both fell asleep. 90 miles per hour. when the car started to go on the gravel, you could feel the vibration and he moved the wheel in the opposite direction and we were going at 90 miles per hour. to my recollection, my car went

around in a circle a few times, stopped by itself, then said it did not touch the brakes, and started going in the right direction in the right lane. we felt that god had a purpose for our lives. >> come on, i know you can give them a south alabama welcome. >> thank you very much. thank you. candy: it is packing up every day, a different hotel every day. it is not brain surgery. that is what he would say. not as stressful or demanding. when you are doing neurosurgery and you have somebody's life in your hands and you have to make minute cut so that you know that if you sneeze or whatever, that person lost their hearing or something? he is the best man for the job. he's a fixer. he is not doing this because of

any glory. he was ready to retire. and i was ready for him to retire. i want my husband back. >> it didn't work out that way. sometimes the lord has a different plan for our lives. you just have to listen. ♪ candy: we have about a million donations, most of them, at least three quarters of them are $50 or less. and i think that is god's way of saying yes, you need to keep going. ♪ [applause]

john: our thanks to mrs. carson and our reporter. she is obviously a really impressive woman with an impressive voice. do you think she has been well used politically by the carson campaign so far? mark: she does a lot of campaigning behind the scenes. i have been surprised by how low profile all of the spouses have been. some like mrs. bush, they do nothing at all. some are keeping their own schedule. i think you will see a lot of them come to the forefront in the next couple of weeks. but i have been surprised, much different than in the past. john: think about michelle obama, elizabeth edwards. superstars on the stage and they all have huge political schedules.

this year, it is amazing. i think republican voters have not gotten to know these people. so far, surprisingly little. coming up, why your high school yearbook might be helping john kasich and how jerry seinfeld is metaphorically implicated. we will be right back. ♪

john: there is a fascinating story up right now on bloomberg politics.com by sasha eisenberg. an unusual technique used to

target voters in new hampshire. to understand that better, it is time for us to head to the victory lap. -- lab. beakers and everything else. thank you for joining us. targeting is something now that every candidate does. what is different about this for john kasich's super pac? sasha: we have heard a lot in the past year about super pac's. they have a program called targeted sharing. it was based on facebook where they asked supporters to open a list of friends in the campaign would tell them who the target is and will encourage their supporters to call or e-mail them. but there is a whole world not on the internet. you look as a republican primary election and those are the folks who are most likely to vote republican and who are least likely to be on facebook or active on facebook.

then, also, when you look at the obama model, you need supporters to opt in. and if you want to reach out to people who are not active supporters, you need a another strategy. and a lot of that is on the internet. this super pac these are the , same folks who are putting out the anti-trump adds at the moment, they started applecart. and they use a social graph using analog sources. so they are going by high school yearbooks. they are going to overture -- obituaries they are looking , at amateur sports leagues to see who know somebody from their roster. they are scraping the pages of law firms and other what color businesses. they are mapping the world in which voters actually live to understand the people they are connected to. john: so this isn't going off-line.

mark zuckerberg set out to build a graph on facebook. but there are a bunch of online but not on facebook and that's what this is about. so give us an example of how this would get constructed. sasha: let's take jerry seinfeld. a new hampshire voter. let's say that the john kasich folks figure out that he lives in a world where his colleagues are likely to be john kasich supporters and he is too. so you talk to your neighbor, and then his friends, george and elaine, and his parents, and his extended family, uncle leo, and his coworkers -- they are using these different sources. newman is not up there because he is a classic trump voter. and each of these are giving a -- is given a connection depending on how close they are to jerry. sometimes by distance. so given the fact that cramer

lives next door, that gives him a stronger connection than george. and instead of coming into a new day phone bank and calling people indiscriminately, they can prioritize people who are most likely to be at the center of this universe. they call him a social anchor. mark: so they are using this not just reach voters, but also to endorse them. how does this apply to doing that? sasha: take an elected official that they want to reach. let's take kelly ayotte. they want to find the people who are around her. one of the challenges of the super pac is that they can't do the work on the campaign for endorsing her. but they want her neighbors and colleagues. exactly. so phone calls later, we will see direct mail focus on the

people around her and then she will think, john kasich has something going on. mark: what does this firm have? what do they bring? sasha: i have heard people talk about the goal of doing this and the limitations on facebook and twitter. there is a lot of work that needs to be done. some of these things are only on paper is like high school yearbooks. so the question is whether it is efficient to see whether before go leo, you call cramer. they are doing this internationally because they are using this for fundraising. john: is this company unique in doing this? are there campaigns pursuing similar strategies? sasha: i have never seen a campaign or super pac take this on so centrally.

and when you compare the john kasich super pac to jeb bush's super pac or marco rubio's super pac, they are making a much better contact. unlike the right to rise tv super pac, i think it speaks not only to what they think they are doing but also to what the john kasich campaign is doing. mark did this company start out by thinking purely about politics? sasha: yes. their major resource has been in politics but they are thinking about corporate applications. mark: just because somebody went to high school with you or is your neighbor doesn't necessarily mean they will share your politics. so how do you know that just because someone is close to jerry seinfeld, that they might also be persuaded to vote for charter seinfeld's candidate? sasha: there are a lot of

statistical models to determine how likely you are to vote for the candidate or if you are pro-choice or pro-gun. whether you have voted in primaries before. and overlaying that on top of the social graph. so the idea is that you are prioritizing contact to people who you think are likely to support you but who are also packed into the clusters of people who know each other. so if you recruit one volunteer in that world, you think you can pull another. mark: thank you for explaining that to us. when we come back, we will to you about karl rove. after this. ♪

john: we are on twice a day but we are always live on bloomberg her politics.com. you can check out the campaign tracker. john: tomorrow's pre-thanksgiving show will be super times two. we will have a chinese super chef on the set. both have new books. rickll let you guess which is whose -- book is whose. until then, sayonara. ♪

>> it's wednesday, november 24. air watching "trending business" with me. live in jakarta and sydney this hour. here is a look at what we're watching for you. trading in jakarta just about to get under way but having a look of course at asian stocks as they slide back at the moment on worries ies about tur and russia. we have that in the mix and gold rising amid tensions as well. taking a hit hong kong stumbling as he tries to consolidate his empire and opec's odd man out looking at

indonesia again as to how it will return after a seven-year gap into opec. it is the start of the trading day over there. let's have a look. >> the third day we're not really seeing any clear direction. right now as you can see we're fairly mixed. to the down side because you have the big markets pulling on the overall tide. fraction, a percent lower just about enough to erase the fraction of a percent higher that we had yesterday. down about a third of 1%. moody's just putting out their forecast for japan for next year. they're saying 0.5 to 1.5% is what the potential is at the moment. oil prices, we talked about this very briefly. let me get to the numbers as far as where we are. 4270 seeing a bit of a pullback 0.4% bu