other. brace yourself fitting to grannies for thanksgiving. countdown to black friday, what is at stake for retailers and how shoppers can profit. we talk to the ceo of macy's. the king of retail. ♪ welcome to "bloomberg excited cannot be more not because the golden state warriors when the 16th game in a row. record-breaking, but i'm super pumped about the show we are about to have. is josh, when you came to bloomberg and mike said he resulted businesses you will run come and do think tv anchor was going to be one of them? sh: it was the one thing

was that i was not going to do. terry, welcome, no better person to have ahead of thanksgiving. we have a lot to cover. david westin is off today, he is flying the friendly skies. i believe he thought as we do ireland, and fact. states three of french president's push to build a coalition against islamic state. after yesterday's meeting with president obama, he talked with angela merkel. merkel said germany is ready to strengthen its military commitments and global hotspots to relieve the french forces. nato is urging de-escalation after the turkey shot down that russian warplane. they called for further contact between turkey and russia. meanwhile, he would new york russian and new york that american diplomats met.

russia has rejected turkey's claim that the plane flew into turkish territory. travelers will need to have patience over the holiday. long lines will be the theme starting today. security has been increased in the wake of the terrorist attacks. there are no specific threats. you can get more on these and other new story 24 hours today -- i day at the new bloomberg.com. matt: futures appear across the board after a positive day yesterday. we can see what the stand, upures -- the mini contracts now. dow jones minis up 48 points. right now, the s&p is at 2000. that is a futures watch, let's look at the index right now and see where we are as opposed to where we have been as far as highs. dow jones, the closing high we have seen his 18,000.

18,000. about 1.9%we are away from that in the cash trade. we're very close to these record highs. check out the bloomberg terminal, show you this all the time, it is great to use futures and what the fed will do right now. right now, there's a 74% chance of a rate hike in the december meetings. one cool piece of these charts is the probability tree which is a little confusing, but it is really fascinating. if you really look and see what it is telling us, a 74% chance at this meeting for a raise. if they do that, the 12% chance of a rate at the next meeting. they was an 80% chance stay put where they are. it is just a fascinating chart to look at. look at future implied probability on the bloomberg chart.

some of the other movers in today's market, first off let's take a look at oil right now. back, obviously the turmoil in the middle east has affected brentwood closely. you rewatch crude futures, coming down after a big day yesterday. barrell. some forecasters, hewlett-packard saying its forecast weaker than they were looking for because of pc and printer disappointment over the next quarter. probably for our entire future right? because who needs to use it printer that much. actually, killing it today because of earnings in the reported quarter. did way better than the street expected but also saying its equipment sales will fall 11% next quarter and about 7% next year. watch these shares in today's trade. stephanie: you know what we have

a talk about, this holiday season may not be bringing boom to many retailers. to jim or confidence was at its weakest in over a year. options like amazon's main -- same day delivery driving people away from brick and mortar and getting them to shop online. your the eighth largest website in the world. you have parade tomorrow, black friday in two days from now. talk to us about retail. what does it look like for you? terry: where the seventh-largest website, and moving toward six. with the consumer shops largely start to their phone, does the research and so they want to buy a new puffer jacket. when they do, hopefully macy's will pop up. i can actually try it on, they can see the qualities what they're expecting.

then they will decide if it will jacket in the store or on their couch. that is the way consumers are shopping today. your first that, numbers talking about the consumer in general. with clearly seen this you that the consumer is buying other categories. record automobile sales, home improvement has been doing extremely well. we are benefiting from the furniture sales, but they're putting it in other categories. we're counting on them being in our category starting on black friday. next five weeks -- how big of the sales between thanksgiving and christmas compared to the rest of the year? terry: it is huge, it is used, it is huge, it is so important we all of the great holiday season. sois really unfair, work hard 12 months of the year but if we don't finish the year between thanksgiving and christmas really strong, the year will be tough.

on the other hand, you can make up a lot of ground on the end of the year. the percentage has stayed pretty steady. there was a little shift because of the thanksgiving -- after black friday day has gotten longer. it has shifted into thanksgiving day, and our own case we open at 6:00 p.m. on thanksgiving evening. that 24 hour. , it is to the biggest day of the year. that is extremely important. all the way through december 26. 1:00 a.m. friday at you will gear up with all the ralph lauren. h: talk to us about how this trend will ever change. 94% stale's -- sales list of the place in physical stores but that is down from 2014. is that a trend that continues indefinitely? ok, ae point it was a

certain number of people always want to shop in stores. the way i just described the transaction, and large number of our consumers are women. i think that trend will continue, but at some point it plateaus. today, i think it is 92.5% of all the things that we sell are sold in stores. 85%, aay that gets to longtime from the 80%. still, the majority of the business with place in bricks and mortars. i see that trend continuing, and we will be benefiting with the strength of our online business. i definitely think having bricks and mortar will be critical to long-term success for retailers like ourselves. stephanie: eight of a trend is discounting. earlier we sat down with the ceo of hudson say, he was most excited about their off-price retailing options. do you agree? terry: it is another channel.

backstagetore called in that category. i would say it is just another channel. there is a consumer that is shopping, and it has been growth over the last several years. an important channel, but i think there is different customers that are shopping different ways. just being in one category is not necessarily the right answer. stephanie: doesn't that cannibalize you? full prices to pay anymore. you used to dictate for me that i had to pay full price. that is not the case anymore. terry: there are different qualities of product in different stores, it was no question about it. if you want first delivery of the latest fashion items, we talking about -- if you want her latest wrap dress that is being delivered for the fall season you should buy it when it gets there. by the time it does get marked

down, it will be what is left. on the other hand, there was an off-price segment that was bought adjust for the off-price channel. that is actually made to got the door at that price. obviously the quality will be very different. stephanie: you have a new challenge, those big brands that have made you so strong, like nike, now they can go direct to consumers. they have their own stores, so i don't need to go to macy's. how do you get be there to get those first items when i can buy them directly from the designer? a great example, with sunglasses hut in our store, finish line in the mall, both of those businesses are doing extremely well inside our store without cannibalizing. they are getting incremental business with that model. thattells you very clearly

customers are choosing different ways to shop. not every customer shops off-price, shops department store or online. there is a lot of departments that are loyal to individual channel. josh: if you think about the history of retail, you had to be a great merchandiser and no fashion. when so many of your sales are arene, and 80% of consumers influenced by digital media, how do you get the pallet you need? competing against google, microsoft, hopefully bloomberg? stephanie: no one competes against a bloomberg. it is a very important focus for our company. hire approximately 1000 college graduates a year. biggestes us one of the recruiters on campus. the concentrate at the university of pennsylvania, campusesa number of where we are the largest recruiter. you start there, getting great

quality students. number two, i moved the headquarters of our merchants to new york for a simple reason -- all of our vendors are here. i want the advantage of having my merchants walking down the street from 34th street to 7th avenue and actually deal with the ralph lauren, deal with calvin klein. while most of our competitors, most, are outside of new york city. having said that, when we relocated macy's.com, i left all of my engineers, all of my software designers, all in san francisco. we've created a new headquarters there because we had to expand and put a sign on top of the roof that said if you worked at macy's.com you would not be driving to silicon valley right now. the young people want to live in san francisco, downtown, and their driving to silicon valley. it is a great advantage for us.

on the whole backside of what you see with all of our websites, i consider integrated vantage. stephanie: we are just getting started. look at what terry is wearing today. he normally tells me he's wearing armani, right now, had to tell, the one and only ryan seacrest. available at macy's, by the way. we take a quick break, when we returned we're going overseas talking russia and turkey. it'll be time for global go. stick with us. ♪

stephanie: welcome back to "bloomberg ." btt hasionaire ceo of been arrested in a growth and corruption scandal. no word with what andre estevez has been charged with.

the scandal is already ensnared brazil's biggest builders. and the state-run oil company. ae worst commodity selloff in generation may not be over for a while according to blackrock, the largest money manager and the world. they tell bloomberg that commodities are headed lower. we are seeing a slowdown in demand, especially in commodities in places like china. forecast disappointing as a standalone company. the pc and printer units were split this month into separate companies. the divisions that tell equipment services and software now known as hewlett-packard enterprises. stephanie? stephanie: now it is time to return to global go, we focus on tensions between russia and turkey after a russian fighter jet was shot down in the syrian border.

has moved ton reinforce operations in syria while turkey showed no signs of backing down. our middle east editor elliott joint is now. turkish and russian counterparts are both speaking today, and it is not telling anyone is backing down. elliott: we have had some conciliatory words. vladimir putin ruled out any kind of military retaliation. to place over syrian airspace, and the turks insisted to place over turkish airspace. they also heard from turkey's prime minister enable say there is no wish to escalate tensions between turkey and russia. indeed, we heard from one wire service in russia that the foreign ministers of turkey and russia are set to meet in the coming days. plus side. on the brushes will be to reinforce space in syria. turkey is moving tanks to the

border with syria as well. turkey is insisting it was within its rights and that the airspace had been breached. also that russia needs to stop a bombing in area in northern syria where they would dissented from turks themselves. certainly a war of words at the moment. if you think about is going on in the world, what is scary is the potential conflict between russia and the united states. the united states has flown the vast majority of airstrikes in syria, and iraq. what's going on to prevent conflict between the two over syria? elliott: you have the nail on the head. right now, that is still somewhat off. we heard from obama -- he already spoke with turkey. hello nato members trying to defuse tensions. the russian said they would embrace a french proposal to close the syrian/turkish border

to cut off some of the supplies to islamic state. certainly, the russians think this was preplanned, premeditated. they said that nato has helped turkey to cover up what happened with the downing of its jet yesterday. a russian foreign minister posed or not then whether u.s. knew before hand. certainly, the russians to the hand of america behind all this. no sense it is will escalate into a military conflict between turkey and russia or russia and the u.s.. stephanie: the white house continues to urge both russia and turkey to stand down. we will be covering the situation throughout the day. now, let's talk to terry lundgren again. i want to stay international, we have to go china. the last 30 days you're been telling to china for the first time.

how is this going? terry: we just began, we just launched our site with inventory being held in china. we have been selling to 70 countries for the last couple of years, but is a small business because you have to pay shipping business and duty. now we have the shipping to china, and we're doing that with our partners. have a joint venture relationship because their logistics systems based in hong kong -- it is brand-new. are finding out what the chinese consumer wants from macy's. it is very exciting. items the fastest selling were home furnishings. in particularly, shoes and towels and high thread count sheets. interesting, you would think they would have that product. arestly, the quality we offering is so high, and so good, that the consumer has grabbed onto this and it is been

our best-selling product out of the box. stephanie: did that surprise you? i thought it will be the celebrity brands. terry: i would've thought that as well. it is just beginning. it is all brand-new for us. we are not marketing the site aggressively because we did not want to overpromise. inyou get a big demand spike china, you could be out of inventory in a hurry. it is a good problem, but i wanted to manage this intelligently. i was surprised to the textile business was the winner out of the box. josh: the chinese consumer hears the word product and think and things- prada luxury. what do you want them to associate with the macy's? rry: the fact is, we have americas department store. we have that recognition and that reputation. people understand we have the

brands, with a large of seller of the major brands that you know. we offer great value, that is what people think about whether think about our brand. the tradition of american retailing, the greatest designer brand said the world, and that value. stephanie: does this hurt your ability to be nimble? given how fickle the consumer is. you have more inventory than any retailer out there, how do you protect yourself? terry: re: talking china now? stephanie: we're going back to america. we just brought in best buy. we are constantly changing what is inside of our box. we're thinking about what the consumer wants her macy's. we just signed a license with lenscrafters. as the population ages, they're looking for better sight. are constantly

theing at new ways to make story itself, and the shopping environment more relevant to more consumers. we are always looking at adding electronics. we are selling more fitbits today and most people are. we always looking for these new opportunities. bringing new branded here stores is expensive. the capital expenditure associated, how do you help your team decide? terry: first of all, on the product itself, we are a test and learn organization. tens of ideas of major ideas within our store right now but you don't know about. most people don't know about because we doing it in experimental locations. then, when we get a bite and some traction, then we go with

our decision. at least half of what we test we never rollout he doesn't did not connect with consumers. that is how we begin. i've already made the decision of we're cutting back our capital investments for next year. thisll spend $1.2 billion year, we will spend less than a billion dollars next year. cut?anie: what gets start to saying the sides of the business determines that we should spend less than a billion dollars. then i say next fund of the growth ideas. fund the on the channel consumer, macy's.com, make sure you are funding bloomberg which is been a great acquisition. we now spanning it and have beauty stores as well. backstage, the off price business, 50 new locations in the next two years. we just opened up six.

what wego back and say will use to fund the renovation of our stores, or the new stores, that is what ends up falling to secondary decision-making as opposed to the growth ideas first. stephanie: what is your best idea right now? the expansion of the beauty concept. we are a dominant place -- you thinking about fragrances, you will be thinking about macy's. with the largest seller premier fragrances in the country, bar none. buyingre thinking about a fragrance, you're probably thinking about buying from macy's. stephanie: we will be back with more. ♪

welcome back, you're watching "bloomberg ." a very special day, no one better one day before the

parade. two days before black friday, macy's ceo terry lundgren and bloomberg's head of industry verticals josh steiner. it is time for morning must-read. it is our favorite bowtie wearing aficionado, tom keene joining the party. tom: the macy's prego tried by the house. higher, kimi go back to when it was higher? feel that you both way because your 6'11", i'm all right because i'm down further. bonnie? you like the parade exactly where it is. bonnie: i like the balloons were they are. in chicago, hundreds of protesters marched last night over the killing of a black teenager by a white police officer. on the teenagers 16 times, and has been charged with murder. that's the first time that has happened in decades.

and of the man is in the paris terrorist attacks. so far authorities have arrested five people meanwhile, that unprecedented locked out of brussels is coming to an end. what -- planetf is halfway to dangerous levels of global warming. of 2015age temperature babita last year's record. the average temperature for this year will be one degree above the benchmark mean temperature. after a two degree increase, climate change could become catastrophic. storiesget more of the on bloomberg.com. stephanie: your morning must-read, for me i was watching basketball last night. steph curry, man. tom: there are a number. it is really about everything in major league sports.

baseball moves closer to cutting the cord. there will be streaming of all games for 15 teams, part of the leak. i'm going to the canadian/rangers, and the same thing. idea of a revolution in sports much like you see a revolution in retail when the stores make the rules, the leagues make the rules. terry: i don't know about that. i think the customer makes the rules in our business. we are totally responsible to our customers. tom: will you advertise on tv anymore? : of course, it is definitely shifting, but again it is where the consumer is getting their media. tv i think will still be an important part. tomorrow is our best tv messaging for the thanksgiving

day parade. three hours on the busiest in the years really key for us. tom: could you had a little signs along the way to the 14-year-old nickelodeon has no idea who they are, never one is going totally mental, you do this -- stephanie: you might not know them, but that is ok. really do people are watching. terry: they do. stephanie: what to think about this move? baseball the struggle to get a younger audience, does this mean you look at them? the first.are not hbo go was the first to do exactly this. mlb is following a similar pattern. the nfl that their first streaming game from london on yahoo!. they do not get the ratings they wanted, but are beginning to build an online audience. will be a wild

before you said that kind of penetration. people want to high definition especially in a game like baseball or hockey. the translation to me he was we're training ourselves not to like 15 of 32nd tv messages. how critical is traditional advertising for you to get your message out? the question is, i can't speak to the baseball audience. can imagine that you want against the largest possible audience you can possibly attract. not everyone is going to be in one medium or another. it will have various first choices. in our case, we want to be in traditional television media as messaging, andng our own voice without our social media networks. i think we, in our case, we want to appeal to as many people as we possibly can. stephanie: i know you have to get back. people are in my year telling me

they need you. tom, thank you for joining us. of my this is one favorite points. it is cochairman's corner. it is rare we have someone that is actually a chairman. two talk for a moment about leadership. the former ibm ceo and chairman, you have led macy's, this is a very cyclical industry through so many twists and turns. to save ah lou had leading a company going to a major change. they can suffer from what i call success syndrome. their successful, so that to get out inside what made us great. and they start incorporating all of these processes on how to sell, how to build, how to evaluate. the world a sudden changes. they see the change in the world, but don't know how to change the company. stephanie: there you go. the world changes. you are at the epicenter of that.

before you mentioned that your customer makes the decision, you got more than just that customer. managers -- you have every store managers phone number. you need to deliver great customer service. you have all those brands, and you have your customer. how do you manage this? by puttingstart yourself at the center of all your decisions. stephanie: they're not the cheapest off. terry: it is beyond that. outside my door it does not take terry lundgren, chairman, it's as chief customer officer. every single day i tried to put myself in that position and say what would our customer want if we were making this decision? what time at our customer want us to be open? we really try to think about the customer woman make these decisions. we do a tremendous amount of customer research. i get a lot of my information,

as i did yesterday, i go visit my stores. i don't tell them i'm coming. stephanie: do you wear a summer era, or a mustache? terry: it took about 30 seconds for me to rip -- be recognized. i want to see the store just like our customers. get the average employee, with touring about their own bills, to share that kind of enthusiasm? to share the passion you feel for that customer base? terry: i communicate quite a bit. i always felt that when i was the ceo of a seven store, 35 years old retailer called the looks wilshire in los angeles i thought that i had to talk to every person in the stores. i could do that, because i only had seven stores.

the ceo of neiman marcus, that i had 30 stores and 10,000 employees and it was harder. i figured out a way to started ae them, i public library across the street. the meetings kept getting bigger. do it very frequently. i do webcasts, i do messaging. i am consulate in communication with my team. stephanie: they are all watching. terry: i will stream this to my employees. josh: lightly recognize my going to the store? terry: definitely. stephanie: it is also challenging. it is not always roses and rainbows. terry: if you look at macy's same -- they really underperformed its north american competitors really for the last year. to be fair, this includes hudson's bay which has had phenomenal same stale -- sale

performances. stephanie: hold on, if you go to herald square you can't possibly macy's andking into walking into jcpenney. they're coming from two completely different places. matt: but if you on the shared this year you want to be a jcpenney holder and not a macy's holder. to be fair, over the last five years total return is trounced the s&p by 40%. but here we have a breakaway gap. this could mean a turnaround, and you have your managers come your customers, but you also have your shareholders. they are the owners. what do you do about this? let the backup and make it crystal clear. of the past five years we outperformed the market by 400%. total shareholder return of 532%. that is our track record, and it is crystal clear.

i say total return over the past five years beating the s&p by 40%. this is the difference in total return, the white line being macy's and the orange line being the s&p. stephanie: looks good to me. clear, maybe it is the start point, but i can promise you that shareholders have been rewarded handsomely by being a macy's shareholder. and they will again, as i said yesterday, i believe that not only are our sweaters on sale our stock prices on sale. consistently delivered, when we had challenges this consistently come back and outperformed the market place. we are going against much stronger numbers, and there is something to that. building on top of that base is much more difficult than when you have a depreciated -- matt: what happens here?

what is happening over the last couple of months. this is a really pronounced turnaround in the price. is that u.s. retail? is that the global picture? what is the problem? stephanie: warm weather? coupleyou have picked a of individual companies, but the market response to retail has been very challenging. on a broader retail look, there is no question that everybody has been significantly impacted on their stock prices. that is obvious, there is no question about it. this is then one of the warmest winters that we have experience. we see it by market and individual location we can talk about 20 or 30 degree warmer temperatures from october all the way to november. international tourism, not an international tourist consumer. if you do, the dollar has an impact on that.

the strength of the dollar makes the euro less valuable. when they tried to shop here, when the brazilians are shopping here, you can see that by location in the contract that. those things are impacting us. will those impact us forever? no. for someone was a short form -- term focus, i get it. the history ofin what we've been able to accomplish when our backs have been against the wall, you would bet on this company. stephanie: right there, it is not just about price. you have so many factors. kerry is going to weather, the dollar, tourism, at every moment you have another challenge to you have to lead with culture. help us understand how you do that, and what the messages. when terry is going to that -- the first thing, and you said this earlier.

you are here and talking and things aren't as good. i have been here will be our going great in those are easy conversations. i will never hide from the camera went into difficult. i will be here talking about the challenging times as well as when things are good. my organization needs to hear that as well. they need to hear what it is we're doing. we're testing and trying all kinds of things going on right now. changesdefinitely be you will see in our stores on some of these tests that we are doing. we're already getting traction on some of these items. you will be able to see these things. it will not be overnight, some of these things that i'm dealing with will not change immediately for us, or frankly for other retailers. if the mccain control which we will build on for the longer term, you can be sure that we're testing and learning and changing the mix and adding ideas. our strength in the online

business, and the omni strength we had with only continue to benefit us. josh: investors are using more tools. the lucas headlight imagery to see how many cars are in your parking lot. they are getting point-of-sale information. which of those tools do you think is really useful in understanding retail trends? just have to call me and i can tell them. the issue i think that we all face today is traffic in the malls. that is the number-one thing. the top third of your malls are great, no problem, plenty of traffic. there are some europeans that aren't visiting one store, get that out of the way. over time, those top ones will be fine. there is also one of the bottom, they will not be fine.

and we'reose stores, taking action closing more than we have in the past. i think that is the right thing to do. are making choices. we can see the writing on the wall. some malls that are weak now will get weaker. those will not be long-term for stop then there is the group in the middle of that is the key issue. of these new ideas, the lenscrafters, putting beauty products in the store. trying new selling commission programs in certain categories. those are all the things that have to happen. the shopping centers have to work with us on that. i can't just bring all the traffic and the mom myself. myself. we have debbie retailers attracting the consumers. that is the big challenge. i can tell you the answers just like the satellites can. be second i want to

derivative challenge. how do you win without having her partners lose -- your partners lose? shoei look at that massive department, i think this partnership is brilliant. but elegant finish line and foot locker, how do you not cannibalize them? there is a specialty store consumer. people shop different channels. there is a specialty store consumer that just wants to go in for the particular product. one of the greatest benefits, why i'm so good for finish line, they are great for me. they helped me get the best assortment of athletic footwear that i could ever imagine. what i do good for them is bringing women into their stores. they don't have women going into finish line. you are, but you probably are not shopping at a finish line you would shop at a macy's.

now macy's has got the asics, any nike trainers, and all of the brands that you want. stephanie: i want to in the steph curry's. terry: that partnership benefits both of us. i'm not letting either of you leave. we come back we are talking about the parade in good business. ♪

stephanie: you are watching "bloomberg ." let's talk about doing good business. macy's been involved with the rwanda path to peace project bringing livelihood to war-torn

countries. we're joined by willis shalit, welcome. tell us about what you are doing any challenges working in those conflict ridden communities. beginning 10 years ago we had an amazing partnership with macy's. the women of rwanda from both sides of a terrible conflict, they weave baskets together and they sell them at macy's. incredible to see how lives have been transformed profoundly through this program. through an entire country. rwanda is in some way smaller than macy's. partnering with a huge store made justs has really an amazing impact on a micro level and women who have -- on a, education

macro level it is transforming the entire country. macy's has been an incredible partner. terry's commitment, and also many people who work at macy's -- logistics, marketing, sales -- have been incredible partners to this. : why is is also a great thing for macy's? she can to see me 10 years ago when said as an introduction that she said i want to show you and talk about this program. she was talking about the genocide, which we knew. you had tears in your eyes just listening to the devastation of this country. the fact that so many men and boys were just eliminated from this country. there were these women that were depending on themselves for their own livelihood. i said, you got me. i will write a check, what can i do? she did notsaid

want a check. but they want to self-confidence, a sustainable livelihood. that is what they want. so what can they make? and she pulled out these baskets. i said i can sell those baskets. she actually exceeded my expectations. they were beautiful. our customers will want them, if we can tell the story. that is what we have done. this has been 10 years we have had this relationship. how many women are part of this program? willis: the length of time is really extraordinary. when we think of a seven-year-old child, now that child was 17 and has had a decade of food, education, and is now headed off to the university. one child of a weaver and is up going to the kennedy school at harvard. he graduated in public policy, and then returned to rewind a.

-- rwanda. beautiful. are very the relationship with the customers has been really amazing. stephanie: isn't it gorgeous? josh: so many companies try these things then decide it is too complicated. they can get the quality good. what is made this partnership sustainable? one of the things for sure was that i went there. i met to them, i bought my daughters with me. we met them, i think once you are there and connected, there is no way you will stop supporting these women. it was just no way. you come back energized and say they are counting on us. what are we going to do to make this program work? i think that was a big part. stephanie: there is a different kind of goodwill partnership for some are counting on you

tomorrow. the thanksgiving day parade. from a business perspective, some say widely you do it? -- why do you do it? tell us why you're doing this. gift tohis is macy's america. we believe this is a time to bring people together. this is the third most television -- watch television program after the super bowl and the academy awards. this is a family tradition. i do, on the streets of new onk, or you can watch it television. this is a major gift. i have been asked a couple of times, this is the year you probably should not to the parade. --9/11, the 2000 a crisis, 2008 financial crisis, they said we should not do the parade. i said this is the best time, we will make that investment.

this is what america needs. i believe that is true of today. stephanie: it will be a bigger expense from a security standpoint that you could've predicted on a few weeks ago. certainly, everyone is rallying together. you can be certain that there of a tremendous amount intense security built around the parade. there always is, but certainly more so now. josh: if you go back a couple of months, ever most dutch everyone was talking about cyber security. stephanie: this is the thing, we have to pay the bills. i'm so sorry. terry lundgren, becky so much. josh, we have to pay the bills. we will be right back. ♪ we live in a pick and choose world.

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jobs, personal spending, and durable goods. and we have got breaking news in brazil. bankeronaire investment gets arrested in a corruption scandal. ♪ stephanie: welcome to the second and i'mberg stephanie ruhle flying solo because my partner david is overseas. here with us throughout the hour, we have got some help. andbloomberg news columnist wealth management, an economist and fashion icon, no one knows it except me, rich, gentlemen, welcome. a lot to cover. russia may go to the un

security council over the shooting down of the russian warplane. this comes from the russian foreign minister who says turkey's decision to shoot down the plane may have been planned. the question has been arisen about turkey defending the area. he called them terrorists. day three of french president hollande passes push against the -- president hollande's push against the islamic state. looking to strengthen his military commitment in a global hots is in order to relieve french forces. coming by airplane and thanksgiving, be prepared to wait. has been increased in the wake of the paris terror attacks. indicating ahreats terrorists planned to attack. more on these and other breaking

stories 24 hours a day. let's take a look first off on futures. up across the board after closing off yesterday, just rarely. -- just barely. up almost 47 points here. take a look at the european trade. the index board is up on my screen. sorry, someone else has got a world index or it and they zoomed in on europe. here you see games across the board, more than 1%. europe is trading strong, not as strong as traded up yesterday. 37% was the gain yesterday. it has come down a little bit today in the premarket, only about 7%. sun edison is doing very well

today as opposed to hewlett-packard. the printer legacy business is doing worse than the enterprise business in the premarket. forecast --use it's they said it would be much better and the street seems to like that. back to you. let's take a close look on the economy and where we are in the robbery in the next 30 minutes. we saw third-quarter gdp revised higher while consumer, and its readings fell to the weakest in a year. i am just a public school girl from new jersey so i do not get it. the numbers.stand we are higher and feeling worse, retail sales are down, help me. >> i think it will be a "meh

-rry christmas." east, inin the middle europe, you have all of this, but it is not economic. themay be feeling bad, whole story with consumer confidence. you are less certain and less optimistic. let -- not that your pessimistic, but a little less optimistic. pullbackprobably not so much but you have good things, solid employment, stagnant wages and income. it is starting to pick up after riod of flat to negative wages. they are starting to move in the right direction. still, christmas is not getting candles, you will still find me a bottle of scotch. it is a good point.

it is as though you are saying we are anxious, the feeling of todoes not make people want buy in a big way. you mean that you have a real recovery. >> the problem with the sentiment data, it tells you here is what happened. there was just some good news and people were happy. bad news, the var negative, but it has a minimal impact on the spending and what they do unless we get months and months of that , and then people start to internalize it and say, i will not bend, i will save for a rainy day. americans have a tennessee to shrug this off. i think this will not be a spectacular christmas but when you look at the price of gasoline and heating energy , they tend to go out and spend it. thatanie: we were seeing

-- saying that 10 months ago. >> it has been wrong since. it is a fallacy. you only realize gasoline savings once a week when you fill up your car. the incremental change from the week before. perou save system sense gallon from the previous week and have a 25 gallon tank, you are only saving $1.5. >> when you would tank up and it would cost $80, it was affecting the cars he will were buying and how they were spending. there is now little extra cash in their pocket and they are spending it. the problem is the first few quarters of it taking place, people do not believe it is permanent and they tend to not make major changes. after a year of prices, you see it show up in the number of cars being sold, because people feel more comfortable that they can

afford the gas for it, and you start to see it through retail sales. i will give you that it is moderate and not a huge swing but more money in your pocket is better than less money. stephanie: isn't any kind of data you collect going to be a lagging indicator question mark because it had to happen in the past in order for you to have gotten that number. >> it is predictive to the economic cycle. some data is incidental and some data is forward-looking. we know when the yield curve inverts, that is indicating that in the future recession, it is likely because historically, one thing leads to another. most sentiment data is backwards looking and some economic data is coincidental. just the process of assembling, putting it together, sending it out, there is a lag. by definition, it is always backward looking. i am not saying christmas is

canceled. at the same time, there is still a tremendous number of people not making the same amount of money they were making 3, 5, 10 years ago, certainly before the recession or depression, whichever you want to call it. you are not making that much money, you had to make changes and adjustments on what you're spending. we don't spend an retail anymore. i was reading this morning, there was a whole story, people were not coming up in apparel and accessories. they're are not buying that. they are buying jim memberships and services. we do not buy retail anymore. i was on, we talked about how shopping, if it is not annexed aryans, people's plazas are filled. i have plenty of ties and sauce and i do not need to go out and get that stuff. maybe rich needs a new type. would much rather

take a vacation, do something exponential, go to disney world, something where they collect memories. stephanie: so many winning because of this. >> let's talk disney. you cannot get on an airplane today and have it he completely -- you have seen air travel go up. the businesscause is spending and not consumers. they are driving more. yes, they're taking think they would normally spend money on and they would buy the suv's, taking the kids. you can watch tv and put the kids in the car and drive to disney world or whatever you are driving. yes, i can agree. >> this weekend is unique. travel is up. look at hotel occupancy, some of which is dismissed. >> talked with number people now and find out how many will put

their families on planes and go through vacations after the shenanigans in the mideast and -- over the world heard >> over the world. aephanie: i was going to take train tomorrow. i am driving. i understand a lot of business leaders are saying, you need to lean into this moment. parent, you might say, let the rest of the world. i am just saying. thank you for joining us. you know who is spending on retail? this guy. i cannot take the heat in here. data from the 1980's. you have to update it. stephanie: rich, thank you for joining us. we have to take a turn, actually to brazil. beeneo has actually corruption part of a

scandal. the investment bank's shares want -- plunged 19% on the news. we are joined now. julia, this is extraordinary. entree estimates, when you look at what his company has done, he has been the toast of the sector. julia: that is right. the largest independent investment banker. filters paying kickbacks to politicians. pretty big news. what does it say that he has been arrested? 10 months ago, i set down with them along with brian moynihan, titans in the investment banking world. arrest? how common is this?

julia: this is a temporary arrest. there is some mention in local newspapers that the other person from thewas a senator ruling party who mentioned him in conversations and asked him .ot to be mentioned now in jail, but we have no details yet. this is huge news and for the market, it is terrible. shares down 19%. we can obviously go further. we ever seen have anything like this before? i cannot envision a scenario where lloyd banks ryan and jamie dimon would be arrested. i think their shares would be down even more than 20%. julia: we saw pretty huge reaction on the ceo of the builder company, one of

brazil's's largest builders -- stephanie: it looks like when we lost our sound there. that was our own julia. i felt we were getting her back but we are not. we have to take a commercial break. ♪

vonnie: welcome back to "bloomberg ." i am vonnie quinn. oh 47 million americans will travel at least the million -- 57 miles from home this weekend. the average price for a gallon of gas, $2.14.

a potential challenger to amazon just got a $300 million and best. the new round of funding should have jet.com -- free shopping on orders exceeding $35. theaters are looking to boost revenue anyway they can. they will be selling posters, cocktailkeychains, and spirit one reason theaters will stay higher than normal, eight tickets and disney. >> i eat it, i drink it, i love it. we will go to jason kelly and look at some quotes in a segment . jason kelly is here to deliver. i want to point out, people might make fun of me because i wear glasses on the show, but

how about those guys of this font? are right, grandpa. jason: first, we will go serious to business to maybe less so. i want to get your take on this. global investment strategist at black rock, we are headed lower. particularly commodity intensive economies like china. china, china, china, china or that is why we have seen the soft. china. you have to listen to the donald trump clip of him saying it over and over again. a huge driver of the demand for oil,r and cement, crude for timber, for everything, was china, back when the economy was upstairs a bleak growing north of 12 -- north of 12%.

now, we would kill for a 6% gdp in the united states but one billion plus people, that is a huge demand. australia, if china has a cold, australia has pneumonia. othershave had pimco and actually bottom down. it is interesting to see the investors figure out when to get back in and start buying. jason: take a look at all the major firms forecast for commodity prices and stock, look a year later, they are adorable and hilarious. stephanie: that is a laugh a minute. i love to read that to get my giggle on. what else is suffering besides oil? retail. much: i do not know how you do shopping with credit cards, but this is from richard talking about the chips in credit cards.

the courtbe taken to of social media. this is a story some college -- some colleagues wrote. >> i hate those new credit cards to now you have got to stick it in, wait, have them read it. it works for the benefit of the bank because it prevents huge credit card fraud. oferally tens of billions dollars. stephanie: we get retrained and it takes an extra 35 seconds, and that is a lot less time than dealing with credit card fraud. >> remember the machine that used to come out? totakes a couple of quarters do that. i like your glasses. stephanie: thank you. we do not have time for number three. follow him on twitter, and he will have his number three quote of the day. a few more followers than you. musk.ezos and elon

just a couple. thank you. here wetoday's say what will take a break and when we come back, the most read stories on the number terminal today. stick with us. shot.t that beautiful we do not have the same shaped head. we are having a big show, stick around. ♪ matt: time now for futures in focus. oil prices trading on speculation this week's rally was not justified as global markets remain. oil yesterday after turkey shut down a russian jet, but many traders are say lyrically driven moves are short-lived area are they right? here to help us answer that question is the senior market trend just trader.

bill, let me ask you what you think about the turkey russia institute from the oil market respective. is oil coming back down, telling us the issue is not as big a deal as we thought it was yesterday? >> i think it is a big deal but i think the global flood is driving prices. only a weekly inventory this week. you see they could not get the follow-through and they are starting to hold back. the rally is this a pointing from the warplane being shot down but what we're focused on his comments from saudi arabia ahead of the opec meeting. once we get through the inventories, and we still have the russia and turkey hangover, there is potential to see the in september off fourth.

i like to see the market get a run to $45. matt: do you think saudi arabia has the power to hold the price even with it being as expensive as it is? they said the other day it would do whatever it takes their do you think they can do whatever it takes? squirm are beginning to and that is seen just from the comments. reminds me back in late september, russia made comments right when they were starting to go into syria. they made comments they were willing to sit down with opec and not opec reducers in september. this was ahead of reports in early october. coursethe market, of there was some geopolitical things built in, and now we are seeing something similar right now with comments from saudi arabia and i think the market is overlooking those comments at the moment. as we get those are two december 4, you want to see the premium

built into the market. thank you very much for joining us. more bloomberg is right now. ♪ stephanie: welcome back. you're watching bloomberg lp or my guest anchor for the hour. now i would like to welcome ceos dotty madison. welcome. i got to talk to you both about terminal trends, one of my favorite functions on the bloomberg terminal. users are reading the most. they are surely talking about the market, the brazil story, oil prices are it i need to talk about brad pitt, starring in a book now made into a movie. i saw it tonight's ago, brad the economy about

and everything that went wrong. the fact that no one is held accountable that this tries me crazy. there is something seriously wrong. talk to ask is and nothing changed. he is talking about the subprime and no bankers are held accountable. a movie star opining on financial regulation and complaining how the presidential candidates are flip lopping? commend his life and he for all the good they do in the world. you cannot argue about what he said it i would like to talk about some of his pharmacist or if he could talk to other industries about their performance, maybe we could talk to them -- to him. as any time he takes a michael awis book and makes it into movie, moneyball is fantastic and every thing i hear about this was fantastic. i think he is half right. there have been some changes and it is not the same game it was

pre-crisis. , a have dodd-frank in place lot more regulations taking place. you have people little more circumspect than they were. the problem we see is wait another 10 years and everyone will have forgotten about it and we will roll into the next races, as we have done every 10 to 20 years for all of detect -- all of eternity. >> i do not know if consumers will follow so gently. , thellowing the crash great depression, people will pull back. when we return, barry and dotty are not going anywhere. you better stick around. ♪

stephanie: welcome back. you are watching a beauty shot in midtown manhattan.

not a love it. barryerg news columnist is here and dottie madison. in a couple of minutes, we are getting important economic data. personal spending, durable goods, jobless claims. drivespersonal spending the economy and is an indicator for where we are going. matt: we just got personal spending and it was worse than we had anticipated. economists here at bloomberg is looking for a gain of 0.3% and we got a gain of only 0.1% for personal spending. but aa disappointment little bit less. we have so much data out now. 1.3%, we were looking for 1.4%. and that is also lower

is important because the fed needs to get that up 2%. durable good orders came in better than looking for. if you take out transportation, a huge part of it, .5%. i could go on and on. a tonic data just came out. initial jobless claims, a little less than the street was looking for. jobs look stronger but the inflation picture looks weaker and that evens out what the fed could do. you can see s&p futures up .3%. barry: it means the post credit pace 2.5%tinues to gdp or we are seeing an improvement in employment. people are nervous so there's ending a little less, though we will see how that changes, holidays.

saving or deleveraging and when we look at the real estate sector, many people are still in either with no equity or negative equity in their homes. low equity, so it prevents them from trading up or moving. that is why the market has such and high rent. people are stuck in their houses. .1 growth is otherwise known as flat. flat we could deal with because it is predictable. isry: i do not know how it predictable because there are so many moving pieces but if we continue to see -- you are dying to jump in. actually have we the data and it merely adds to our anxiety and indecisiveness us remark when you knew less, you were able to make more decisions. i am holy decisive because i have no idea what will happen and i freely admit it.

i -- they either adjust their lifestyle or spending or investments based on their best guess and it is a terrible way to go through life. hope for the best and plan for the worst. stephanie: matt, jump in. i focus on automotive sales and they have been kicking but lately. you can see it climbs and climbs and clients. pull up my bloomberg terminal. climbs and climbs and clients. we are doing very well here. that is an 18 million annual rate of auto sales. unimaginable. so the federal reserve bank of aw york put out a piece couple of days ago and said if rates are raised by 100 basis points, that would hurt auto dealers because they have to hold inventory and it gets more

expensive. and then that gets more expensive. by the second month, sales would be down 3.25%. thatuto dealers unique in they get this double whammy when the rates get increased? dotty: it depends on what happens with the consumer's wallet. gas prices are lower and they are pulling back on other discretionary things, maybe they money tothe extra spend on a car. barry: auto is one of the few areas where credit is readily available. if rates are a touch higher, it means the consumer going out, instead of getting their purchase, maybe they skipped the upgraded alloy wheels, but they will still buy the car. is credit to easily available? -- and a lot of that

was subprime and leasing. stephanie: we don't talk enough about the fact subprime and auto financials. there you go. there is a huge difference between financing homes and entire neighborhoods becoming blighted when you have a dozen short sales or foreclosures on the block, versus you do not make a payment, they send a tow truck at hit your car and sell it auction. it is a much faster and easier .efault they say it takes three years to do a foreclosure. stephanie: even if it is an easier process to clean up the blood and dump the bodies, shouldn't we take a closer look on how it is regulated to avoid this? you do not want to hurt consumers, with interest rates like this, your argument that people are potentially getting hurt, remember it is still not easy for that person to get the credit.

you have an auto fleet that was the oldest it has been coming out in a decade. a ton of pent up demand it was things pick up in 2011 and 2012, auto sales bust out and credit availability plus people getting jobs equals auto sales. dotty: and auto sales help them keep their jobs. it is a big limiter to people working, especially working moms. is other datare we are very focused on, retail spending. you have been very critical of the data and the numbers we get. from the retail association. why is this? a survey every year. the national retail federation. a nice enough group of folks. they call me the grinch and they call this my annual temper -- this which i found is a regular and repeating one. when you ask people what did use than last year and what will you

spend this year, they are making up numbers on the spot. you are stopping someone outside a macy's or in the mall, we are doing a survey. unless you are going through your credit card receipts, you spent lasta what you year and you also have no idea what you will spend this year. taking the difference between two fabricated numbers does not tell us what people will actually spend. when we track and over the past decade, it is not just a little wrong. it is wildly wrong. stephanie: the gentleman who was just in this chair, you do not think of the nrs knows what his inventory looks like? barry: it depends on if he shares the information and he may not want to because it is proprietary and there is a strategic advantage to playing your cards tight to the best we could look at the shipments coming into the port here they are soft. we can look at discounts -- stephanie: you are saying they are intentionally not sharing the correct data?

he does have strategic -- right. barry: not let the guys across the street know what he is doing in terms of inventory discounting and what have you. dotty: i do not think anyone wants it to be wildly off. the numbers they put out each year are not based on retailers. they do the survey, the worst possible way to figure out what sales are. the best way is to stick a little chip in the computer reader, we get a report from visa every month that gives us real-time updates of what people are spending on their credit cards, so you get some sense of how people are actually spending money, but the whole approach of foot traffic and malls, you cannot tell of these people are windows shopping or spending, the other thing people forget is black friday does not tell us how the season is.

all these things we find out this week, they are great filler . dotty: i agree black friday has nothing to do with december. stephanie: this is the black friday show. dotty: it is important to the year but it does not indicate what will happen in december. stephanie: we have to leave it there. we have more to cover. barry, thank you for joining us. what is your favorite thanksgiving item? a cranberry is thing my sister makes with strawberries and long nights and it is delicious. walnuts and it is to wish us. -- it is delicious. stephanie: time to take you to a morning meeting where we get key ideas today. louise,will bring in city head of emerging markets from london. thank you for joining us.

let me first ask you, we have been talking about what will happen when the fed raises rates. the concern from emerging markets perspective is a lot of capital flows here and out of the markets. are they prepared for that? i know they were worried in the last meeting. the hike isolate action for now in december, i do believe the markets, that incorporates a bunch of markets. i do believe they are prepared in the sense that the markets the firsty pricing in lift off. but it will be very limited and that will probably not drag too much capital. but it is suffering here. normalization, you have pressure inflationary from china, the commodities pressure and the fact there is supporting growth -- asia, they

are all now seeing could tracksuit -- seeing contraction euro rear. irrespective of what the fed does. worried aboutnot the fed is much but i'm guessing you think the trajectory of rate increases will be very low. looking at a trajectory that was in the last decade, how low do you think it will be? one and done on the fed, could you see two or three in 2016? our chief economist in the u.s. has 100 basis points, which i think is pretty much in line with what futures are kind of suggesting now. it will be low because one of your colleagues two minutes ago,

still economic rebound. talking about two and a quarter and 2.5% growth. very sensitive inflation recovery. probably have to be a lot more cautious when hiking rates. i think the markets are already there. hence my view on the emerging markets. matt: now, when we come back here, we will give you more on -- on retail. target. ♪

vonnie: welcome back. in brazil, the billionaire ceo arrested in a growing corruption scandal. what he has been charged with. he turned it into largest investment bank in central america. the world posse's largest maker of farm equipment is forecasting profit in line with estimates. hurt by lower-cost prices and to buy tractors and other equipment. and -- department wants to know if comcast -- open inquiry that has to do with interconnect. the tv provider sells cable advertising to local businesses on behalf of another pay-tv company. comcast says it is cooperating. thank you.

when i spoke to brian cornell a few weeks ago, he told me he was fighting to earn u.s. consumer dollars. take a look. brian: today's consumer is still cautious. trend, theyat the are pay much more. they are paying down the debt and we see them paying down their balances. they are still very cautious. you're not seeing a big surge in spending. we have got to work every day to earn those dollars and earn those footsteps. stephanie: that is the question. how will he earn those dollars this holiday season. the ceo and the bloomberg retail reporter, you will be speaking to ryan tomorrow on thanksgiving. he is my thanksgiving day. we are going to be watching it open. stephanie: who is going to target tomorrow night? everybody.

remember toys get released that day? been a talk about black friday, it is not what it used to be. they are not getting stampeded at staples. but target, and walmart, are expecting record turnouts despite things moving online and despite whatever you feel, they are expecting new numbers. what goes in preparing for black friday. targets than a year planning for the spirit on black friday, they will be planning for next year during the head of store operations told me they had 300 people who are full-time or part-time just planning for black friday all year round. stephanie: it has to be about store volume and foot traffic here the reason people are there is for the deals and the saving.

to show people the full offering, they had a great black friday among these things not ready to buy. she comes back in 10 days and it does help to suck volume to drive people into the store. stephanie: they want them to come in and then come back. --y spread out there deals thei your come in on blackd friday and there are christmas trees. eals. it is about branding. it is not just about the sales they get that one day. black friday for some retailers will not even biggest a day of the year sales wise. that will likely come closer to christmas. ands about a branding associating a positive experience, a fun outing to get good deals with target. what do you think of

the current strategy? he is involved really in a cover -- a recovery story. >> he is driving his core business. shut down the catalog. if the model is broken, do not make it bigger. if the model is broken, do not make the model bigger. fix the model and then make it bigger. he's all over turn things distracting his management team, , and he isital focusing. that is great management. we saw him shut down canada because erik schatzker does not -- erik schatzker does not live there anymore. take a look. >> we are focused on the u.s. right now and we think we have growth opportunities for a number of years and we have learned lessons from canada and as we go forward with some initiatives in the u.s., we are being very thoughtful about how we face those. we will learn and validate for we rapidly expand. stephanie: an anxious consumer

and he wants to open more stores? expand his $950 million e-commerce business in the u.s. he could become the full on the channel player he is. >> i think they are technology maybe they cannot beat everything for everyone to focus on what does best, home, style, babies, groceries. maybe they will not provide all the groceries, but they will do craft beer, yogurt, ready and grab and go items. that is what the customer wants. rather than taking on walmart, they were trying to be the second walmart. they have got to be their own thing. they have a certain customer. >> do not underestimate brian's's experience at pepsico. suppliers are the people who put things on the shelves in target. approach andw to

say, help me help you help me drive my business. he is very savvy about the supplier community. stephanie: we are all talking about, you need to win mobile. isn't mobile killing retailers? do we have so many options that we are addicted to discounting? if i am but i'm cornell, you, dotty, you run a luxury business. even the luxury buyer, no one wants to pay retail. dotty: i think the consumer savvy price transparency is here to say there is no hiding because a mobile phone is in your pocket and mobile traffic is up. conversion is down. meaning the sales happening on mobile are not as high as anyone wants to see them now because we are interacting passively while doing transactional things. i still like my chances. if you can be a brand in someone's pocket and handbag 24 hours a day, that is yours to lose.

>> it is sort of like you cannot fight it anymore and you cannot deny it. the companies know they have to invest in the area. a lot of them try throughout the 2000's. it, join it.at that is really expensive. walmart spent $1.5 billion and their web tracking went down. >> j.crew was a christmas staple for your wife, husband, girlfriend, and boss. that retailer is certainly not feeling the cheer this season. same-store sales have plummeted. investors have seen the value. the value of the bonds have dropped 59%. they got the king of retail at the helm. he is the father of the shelti retail area what will we do? >> they will focus on their core. >> do they know what the court is anymore? what he isy do it

really great at is keeping them warm and basic and essential. he has got letter green backing him. the bonds are not in great shape and maybe a little restructuring . what he will do is focus on his opencustomer, he will mercantile, his lower-priced line at j.crew, he will expand made well, his younger and more casual line, within nordstrom and he will grow the business. dotty: he said he gets nervous when he sees egg spikes. american eagle, they are doing this right now, riding a denim trend. steady and consistent. keeping it warm like you were saying. it does take a lot to kill a retailer.

also an extraordinary brand. an externa company. matt? matt: i am looking at retail fixed income results and they do not look at all. over the last three months, you can play with this chart i have got here of a fixed income worksheet. this is men's wearhouse, you will love the way you look, i guarantee it, but not if you owned these bonds in the last six months. oh brands does a little better if you expand it out because probably victoria's secret is still a winner. tj maxx. but in general, the retail picture for fixed income has been weak over the last six months and a year. stephanie: again, would you ever bet against mickey drexler, the father of specialty retail? dotty: no, nor what i bet against his team he has grown over the years. he has a lot of talented people

working for him so absolutely not. the fact that ralph lauren brought in navy person, ralph lauren which has lost its groove. dotty: we will see operational enhancements. now atr ralph lauren teri burch. this will all play out and we will see a lot of luxury branding at tory burch and we will see a lot of operational -- great sourcing at ralph lauren, but no, i would never bet against mickey. stephanie: what an hour. nothing more i love but the anchor desk, not one or two but three women. thank you. happy thanksgiving. joiningead, a ceo jamie me for hour.

stephanie: we are 30 minutes from the opening bell right here in new york city and welcome back. my partner david is off but i have an all-stars that -- all-star cast with me. my cohost, lisa abramowicz. welcome. also with us, bloomberg markets executive editor joe weisenthal ceo.hird management at -- guy in the next 60 minutes is my advice to you. we will give you news around the world. russia sending its newest antiaircraft missiles to syria after turkish jets shot down one of russia's bombers. russia also sending a worship into the mediterranean. is -- denies it rebels say they have the body of the second flyer. investigators say the american air man who destroyed a hospital

in afghanistan last month miss identify the targets. the report says the crew thought they were attacking a nearby compound held by the taliban. 31 people are killed. the findings will be released today. security will test the patience of u.s. travelers this thanksgiving weekend. inng stationed at airports response to the paris attacks. the u.s. government says -- more on these and other breaking stories 24 hours a day at the new bloomberg.com. matt: futures up across the board to kick off this wednesday. we have futures putting up big gains right now. but 43 points on the dow jones many contract. s&p futures up. if you take a look at the records, you can see we are pretty close as far as the highest points we have reached on the dow jones. the closing high we have seen, 18,312. right now, 17,812.

on the s&p, we are much closer, 1.9% away from the record. we close at 2089. p, futures at w.a.r. are predicting a 74% chance the fed will raise rates. the records -- record charts may turnaround in december. one thing as interesting, we expanded the usability of this chart so you can graph the likelihood of an increase in december, and then you can go ahead and click on add or remove and graph the likelihood of other moves, for example am a what is the likelihood the fed raises by 50 basis points? it is obviously incredibly low but it is cool we have that functionality. take a look at the yield right now. five-year high as far as ons go. selling the front end of the curve because they think the fed will raise rates.

note, oil isparate coming back down after the almost 3% gain we saw yesterday. the oil and maybe market is a little relieved something were still not happen yesterday after he shot down the russian jet. to $44 per barrel and we are now looking at 4224 for west texas intermediate. now for the top five stories that matter to markets. you know i will lead with number one, shares in brazil are down more than 18%, obviously on the news that the present billionaire entree is davis has been arrested. you a i know we spoke to few minutes ago, but give us an update and really break this down. this is the darling of the independent banking world. julia: it is and the reaction has been straight -- has been strong. bonds are down $.18 on the

dollar to a record low. the chart is pretty impressive paired we are trying to get more details on the arrest. is latest we got is that he expected of interfering, trying to interfere, with the deposition of one of the former executives who is now in jail and this is why he was arrested today. that is the latest we have. stephanie: thank you for joining us. wow.e, this is the biggest the way they do with us, this is all related to catch a bus. that is a big mess. this is probably still early in what might unfold to lead to. stephanie: you do not arrest a ceo of this caliber with this kind of reputation on a whim. >> in emerging market companies, they do. stephanie: that is important.

this is not like jamie dimon getting arrested? david: i remember one of the largest property companies, they arrested the ceo and took him to jail. this happens more often in emerging markets then it happens here. the scandal has helped exacerbate the session. you have seen a dramatic plunge, serious economic problems in brazil, not only from a commodity bus but also because of the corruption. there is a lot at stake for officials to go after, one of the most stories -- storied and respected bankers of the nation. right now the details coming out show that he is a acted -- suspected of paying off an executive. man is more than just a story. he is rich. go, take a look at that function on bloomberg and type in on dry. -- andre.

he is worth 2.7 billion dollars and we can see where his money comes from. a 22% taken bg impaction, worth $1.3 billion. the orange purse that portion of the circle. this guy has 720 $5 million in cash and short-term securities. is wealthy by any measure although he has lost 20% of his wealth year to date and i think this number, how much he lost, is probably going to increase substantially today. stephanie: probably p are what you make of this? talk about when does the emerging market and and when to you by brazil here to when you see headlines like this, you cannot know how deep it will go every day, something new on this front. theisa was saying, corruption crisis and scandal has put a freeze on business.

people do not know who will be in power and who will be running the companies. seems to get worse and worse and that is why you cannot find a bottom on this market. a lot of economic data out this morning. initial jobless claims fell to 260,000. october consumer spending, .1%, which is nothing. and 3%.ows, david, there is so much economic data right now. is it too much? do you care? joe: way too much. no. you cannot really look at the short-term data figures and try to take anything away, at least to the way we invest. you try hard to change the portfolio, that would be foolish. anyou do not want to make

-- the only way they do not get a a great claimst number. spending was not great. durable good orders were really solid, surprisingly good. revisions showed nothing -- stephanie: you have got deflationary camp and the inflationary camp and they are digging in their heels. >> all data is like the blind man touching the elephant. you have to trust that the person telling the story is credible. any smart person can look at data and tell a new story if they want. feel like that was a direct shot at me as the end there. the font and stock at record lows, really getting crushed here. in spain, saying it is seeking preliminary credit from

investors. it has lost more than half its stock this year. as auditor says there could be significant doubts about the company's's future if the picture does not improve. everyone likes you and they think you are cool. but these do not make money. >> no. we do not get the credit that solar power and wind power gets. the credit for being a renewable energy source, collecting garbage and converting it to energy is renewable energy but the definition of some of these more cooler sources of power. joe, what happens when these industries subsidies go away? they are all subsidized. joe: there are a lot of issues.

the other is with the subsidies, a lot of it sort of leverett in a sense to the easing credit markets. when that tightens up, you have a problem. felix these things happen in cycles all the time. the economics of all the renewable continuing improving, you see the solar, it is absolutely extraordinary. as you point out, a lot of these businesses, without the subsidies, it is hard to make these economic models work. it employs 24,000 people worldwide. the company is heading toward bankruptcy. it has debt that is on bank balance she and will cause potentially a problem and loss for banks in that appear this will show how the decline in energy prices really trickles out into the broader european as well as the u.s. economy.

>> the european central bank warned of a rapid pricing premium. specifically emerging markets, especially if the u.s. federal reserve heights interest rates faster than expected in the twice yearly financial stability today. the bank said, listen to this, a faster than expected withdrawal of monetary policy accommodation and other major advanced economies could trigger a global firm which may also spill over into the euro area. help me understand what is janet yellen's job. if you remember christine lagarde urging her not to raise rates, who does she answer to and what is she responsible for? come onestors say already, should have raised this 12 months ago. >> is any really speaking in his own self interest here? fedhe big concern is if the does hike rates or cause china to devalue the you want more,

and what that could do to the global economy, it is one of the big concerns of a lot of egg fund managers at this point. we saw the instability in august, and a lot of it spurred lawn,he evaluation of the -- people are spending and even bigger evaluation. >> at some point, janet yellen has to pull the trigger p are you will never have a bulletproof global economy. >> that is actually true but if you just listen to what she says, mostly she wants to see strong employment and signs of inflation rising and that leads to december and she is stuck to basically a regular dual mandate. >> why did she have to raise rates? stephanie: how about the unintended consequences of leaving them at zero? >> a lot of those have already started to reverse. people are seeing the potential default rate increasing.

>> we try not to pay to much attention because we are buying individual stocks. is a good thing when the rates go up because that means the economy is improving and they are going well. term,eing said, the near it has got to normalize it only talking about 25 basis oyster the reaction of world leaders in other economies, what is supposed to be our business, i think it is just overload. let's stop talking about this because there are more interesting things. matt: if you take a look at the tail rule and plug in 5% for the national rate of unemployment, 2% for the us and fed target, and even if you put in 04 the mutual rate, something a lot of a, we should be close to 1% now. the fed by almost any measure is questioncurve and the

about bubbles leads me to wonder what is driving the gains in the act in a market. is it the earnings outlook, the whyres earnings outlook, the equity markets have done so well, or is it because interest rate? the participation rate, the number of workers, modifiedally on her rule, she is right in line. stephanie: number five, george osborne is setting out spending priorities for the next five years, saying the u.k. economy will grow by 2.4% this year and in 2016, osborne said since 2010, no economy in the g7 has grown faster than great britain p are we are determined this will be an economic recovery for all parts of the nation. that is pretty bullish a message.

>> i love it. >> it is interesting because the fed is expected to raise rates in december but markets are not seeing a rate hike until early. a tighter labor market than we are. you have to wonder if the economy really except next year, where the test will there be a big racing? does the strength in great britain make you more bullish on europe in general? or do you see it more standalone? more standalone. benefiting from their growth and andlopment of malls apartments and other things, we have seen that specifically in the u.k.. you go.e: there that is the top five if i've ever heard one. thank you for joining us. we will be right back talking about what is moving up and what is moving down in the premarket. we are 15 minutes away from the open. dave is here for the hour and lisa abramowicz paired stick around.

-- lisa abramowicz. stick around. ♪

vonnie: welcome back. comcast advertising sales heights investigated by the sales to permit to the department passes anti-want to know if comcast is hindering competition. comcast is the nation's biggest cable provider. physically profits will meet -- lowerespite global markets -- lower margins have less -- a place to challenge amazon. the new funding comes as jeff enters its first holiday season. the online site opened in july. more "bloomberg " right now with stephanie. averagee: the thanksgiving meal this year will

cost the most ever, 50 dollars for the first time. the copan is bird flu outbreak across all 15 turkey producing states, which destroyed 7.7 million turkeys and caused prices to jump six percent. turkey inflation, that is the bloomberg story. who better to answer the question than the boston market ceo who joins us now. david is still with us. george, last year, boston market sold more than 41,000 whole turkeys. are you expecting similar sales this year? improve by 10%. sales are doing well for a spirit we were not as impacted with avian flu given our producers did not have that impact. our costs went up by about 5% on turkey so we pass that increase on, but the average consumer will pay about 7% more at our restaurants this year. itphanie: and you passed onto that consumers can he or

she absorb the cost increase? you are not a high price point restaurant. we have seen people in the lower middle wage category have no wage increase. can they afford the 7%? george: our cost is still affordable. 9.99's dollars -- $9.99. you can come to our restaurant and have a full meal with a slice apply for a $12.99 in new york. stephanie: macaroni and cheese is off the charts. david: it does not sound healthy but the chicken is always good. every time i ate at your restaurant i enjoy it. turkey pricesbe has gone up for the price of everything else has gone down. grains, a deflation and commodities. couldn't they offset a little bit?

george: to a certain point. our costs have gone up. rents have increased genetically because of the demand for space across the u.s. we have seen an increase in dallas in new york and other markets as well. david:how have you-- will that trend for you or has it always been a mix? george: we do a mix. most business is not in the afternoon. shrunk ouro footprint now to 600 square feet, where we have gone into some shopping centers and food courts because there is a big demand better for you food in fort -- in food courts. stephanie: let's talk turkey in the terminal. [indiscernible] turkey in the terminal? alliteration.he the past 15 years. the white line is the estimated cost of a large thanksgiving dinner. michael put this together for

me. the blue line is inflation. this is the inflation treasury a cost ofasure living, etc. it is the only inflation that matters for this purpose. the fact is, the cost of a thanksgiving dinner is hanging in line with inflation. we can talk about the avian flu this year and talk about the cranberry shortage last year, or we can talk about the fact that mass potatoes were little chunky in 2008. it does not matter. the cost of a thanksgiving dinner has kept almost perfect pace with inflation. stephanie: i will argue your thanksgiving dinner is cheaper than those at home. nine dollars per person third i went to the grocery store yesterday and spent a whole lot more than $100. is it cheaper to get a boston market thanksgiving dinner than to go to the grocery store? george: it is and also less stressful. really, we do it all for you but we are the solution for busy

people and also some people come to meet friends. they stop at boston market to do that. extrapolateu ever out what sales will look like? george: more people are eating outside their home and also at the same time, people are looking for a solution. for the last five years, thanksgiving sales have gone up by 100% on a cumulative basis. this year, we expect a 10% increase. we do research every year so we can talk to consumers and we find they are looking for solutions outside the home. it is stressful to start planning thanksgiving 70's in advance. in some cases, people come to us and pick up the mashed potatoes and a stuffing, and in other cases, the turkey. you bullish on the u.s. economy for 2016? being: with gas prices

down, we benefit from that ourselves. stephanie: thank you for joining us. george will be in three boston market stores tomorrow with other executives. happy thanksgiving. " when weg return. markets just six minutes away from opening. ♪

stephanie: welcome back. down with george, the ceo of boston market. his title is "the big chicken." that is amazing. still here with our own big chicken, david. that is amazing. i just noticed that. david, the last time you joined us, i asked for your favorite picks. this is your moment to say, how you like me now? on the spotut me and was not prepared for the question. it has been a big position for us for a long time.

the timber company based in the northwest, it announced a merger a couple of weeks ago with timber. i had no idea. it is not all good. the stock, i picked it because i put the stock was cheap. it is still very cheap. but they use stock to acquire plum creek timber at a premium to its market price. using an undervalued stock to pay a premium for another security is not only does not always the greatest thing for investors but there are a lot of things these companies have together. they are in but -- combining management teams. they now have southeast with the pacific northwest. we look long term for this to be at least 50% up from here. at theie: you also look ceo almost like an internal activist, really taking action. david: doyle simmons who took over the company a couple years ago has really changed things. his changed agency is what unlocked value. we are value investors. how do we get value question

mark a lot of people do not understand it. stephanie: i want to take a minute. here we are. macy's, the producer of the parade, is there down in the new york stock exchange not the original one. he is up north making toys. it's not just weyerhaeuser. lot ofwe don't own a north american and our portfolio. we are a real estate operating company which is a big difference in a huge confusion for the marketplace in terms of listed property funds. fundsthink they are reet but ours is not. >> talk to me about macy's commercial real estate. they are complaining about mall traffic coming down. we have seen a lot of pain among a lot of retailers because of less mall traffic. how do you feel about malls and commercial properties?

internet risk for a long time has gone in terms of people shopping at home as opposed to going to malls. we do not own a lot of mall property security spell the ones we own are the highest quality once because we believe there is some challenges long-term. macy's, we look at them a couple of months ago as a real estate investment opportunity. there was talk for a while -- remember the hedge fund trade that said he was going to become a potential listing. they would spin off real estate inventory and that cannot happen. stephanie: it's as much of a horrific story as it is been, but the only valuable portion is it is a safe play. simon property group, you don't like them? david: it's not that we don't like them. probably the best reet in the market. is owned by every single index and trust fund. but it is expensive. we are value investors.

we don't like to pay up for things. we like to buy bargains. stephanie: you can look at apple and say it is expensive. david: that is the beauty of real estate investment. is the simplest form of analysis. they stay with her net asset values is. simon property's traits at a premium. weyerhaeuser traits at a discount. it's an easy calculation. >> what part of the u.s. real estate market is overpriced? david: the reets. they are trading at a premium. and distribution vehicles. income-oriented vehicles and a lot of folks with low incomes -- interest rates are running into alternative form of district vehicles and that is why they are expensive. tophanie: they are opposed have a growth over the next 3-5 years. why do they have it right? david: this is what our portfolios are unique and different. stephanie: unique and different?

david: property funds that owns global logistic properties. this was the old prologis, one of the largest distribution center vehicles in the united states. run by a guy named jeff schwartz. they got very expensive and we sold out of it. then he moved to asia and with gic launched global logistic properties. a year ago we like the stock but it was a little expensive. a year ago he passed away. security got impacted by that. there were some challenges as a result of cleaning what -- up what had begun. that is when we got into the stock at a discount of net asset value. there the largest owner of logistic properties in china, japan, australia, brazil. they are coming to the united states in a bigger way. they just bought a big blackstone portfolio. when blackstone

cells, you want to be the buyer? want to be the argument that you want to buy from blackstone. david: in this case it was a great point of entry for the company. like the management team in the united states and think they are going to be used -- they are better operating. stephanie: to bring up bubble. i think people talked about possible property bubbles in china, london. do you buy that? david: no. we are looking at very specific property investments, individual companies and not looking at a market that might be high or low. everything we are buying is it discounts from the asset value. we are not paying premiums or one could argue those are overpriced and at risk of some kind of deterioration. >> where is the best value right now? regionality? --

david: we like what is going on with asia with this company. they are one of the largest growers in china. amazon is a client of theirs. they are building dissertation facilities for amazon in china. this is the only way of getting into that kind of play. you are taking on retail and you are getting a real esattate investment to go along with it. it is still a growing economy compared other parts of the world right now. stephanie: what edit -- what would a rate hike mean? david: some of the things we are investing in our going to benefit from rate hikes. they are not all focused on the income component. andte hike will hurt reets impair the distribution component and it will be pressure to sell some of the securities which will take prices down. but what we are buying are less income oriented. legal benefit from the growth -- we think we will benefit from

the growth. the world is growing. that is what we are benefiting from. stephanie: we are six minutes into the trading day. matt, we saw santa down there. did he deliver? matt: we are seeing gains across the board. unchanged s&p right now. still a green arrow. the dow up only six points. not as strong as we saw with features but the indexes are gaining. map whichll up my i break sent down to industries and we can see what is up in what is down. we are so early in the trading day this will move around a little bit. most of the groups are down. energy, utilities and telecom leading the losses. a consumer are staples and health care. that is what the s&p is doing. let me show you oil. is up almost 3% yesterday. it is come back down now.

taking away almost all the gains in may yesterday. a drop of 2% at $41.97. maybe the supply what is more important between turkey and russia. i want to pause because i think this is the most fascinating story of the morning so far. value pharmaceuticals is down 4%. it's down 60% year to date. there is a note out on a blog called bronte capital blog that says they have gone through all the pharmacies listed in delaware and they see that employees who are on the valeant payroll continue to register pharmacies to other drugs to go through, glycated with -- like they did with -- stephanie: one more time. matt: they have released a report saying employees on the payroll at valeant continue to

register pharmacies in delaware, dozens and dozens of pharmacies that are named after either chess moves or stephen king characters. that's why it is amusing. stephanie: before we take this for gospel, what we know about bronte capital? matt: we don't know if they are long or short. they sort of preface each comment by saying hey, this could be legit. but they havet, listed so many pharmacies named after stephen king characters like "the overlook pharmacy" or torrence pharmacy after the characters from "the shining>" hubeinie: bill ackman, say has become the spokesman for the company, it is not going well for him.

i don't want to put you on the spot but do you know anything about valeant? david: we don't own it or much of anything about it. it is a leveraged company and we will not uncommon stocks with high leverage. matt: matt levine from bloomberg view put out a great story yesterday explaining how bill ackman has boosted his stake in valeant to nine point 9% which is the most technically activist fund is allowed to hold -- 9.9%. about $250 million in options in order to assume a $1.1 billion stake. it's a great story. check it out on bloomberg view. i don't think that is as good as the fact that so many pharmacies are named after chess moves and stephen king characters. stephanie: i don't buy it. they know they are under so much scrutiny right now. matt: and bronte capital alleges they are still continuing to do this. stephanie: we are seeing the market react to it.

i think it will take some time to absorb this because this story,: a soap opera, is a massive understatement. just four weeks ago analyst had this company as a buy. there has been so much positive news about the way this company is structured and all there is now is negative news. beautiful for, business media. before we sell anybody down the river we have to do a little more -- david: you have to give bill ackman credit for putting his money where his mouth is. matt: on not selling it anyone down the river. it's just an interesting blog post that names a lot of very interesting -- there's a topiary pharmacy named after the maze in the shining. stephanie: calling bill ackman bolt is also a massive understatement. he's the definition of go big or go home. david: there are certain words i

cannot use in television. stephanie: we will take you to the nasdaq where abigail doolittle is looking at another name having a rough start to the day. abigail: we'll watching biomarin pharmaceutical. down the second day in a row after they received an unfavorable review yesterday from a panel on its drug to treat muscular dystrophy. is considered to be a star and its drug pipeline. there is lots of commentary out there saying they see analysts -- analysts see it less likely it will be approved or perhaps it will be delayed. this includes jpmorgan's cory caps off, -- kazimov, but he still sees it at attractive levels. he still maintains his overweight raining and there are currently more than 50% upside to the 12 month consensus price target of 148. stephanie: that is our own

abigail doolittle from the nasdaq. wall street or main street? where presidential candidates focusing their attention. that will be next in today's value proposition. you are watching "bloomberg " and what is that beautiful shot? sunrise in san francisco. got to love it. we have more to cover. one of my favorites guys, al hunt will be joining us. you are watching "bloomberg ." ♪

♪ vonnie: a red flag on the economy. companies are cutting fewer jobs. consumer spending rose just a fraction on october. americans are not spending their raises are with your saving on

gas. plus, orders for business equipment sales rose last month. that was the most in three months. consumable goods rose 3%. russian controlled energy company is shutting off the flow of gas to ukraine. temperatures this morning were below freezing there. they say they have not paid for future shipments. ukraine has tried to find other gas sources since last year. the world's largest money commodities are heading lower. the analyst sees a sharp slowdown in demand. especially the commodity-intensive economies like china. stephanie? stephanie: it's time for our value proposition. this is where he zero in on controversial issues. what is more valuable to presidential candidates, wall street fundraising dollars or main street votes?

a favorite of mine, al hunt joins us from the nation's capital. david and lisa are still with us. out, walk us through this. --al, walk us through this. al: asking me what politicians prefer is like saying who would i rather watch them bloomberg, you are hans nichols. that is a slamdunk. it is really easy. wall street is despised by much of america and most of america thinks the our main street. politically that is an easy call. stephanie: out of those politicians pivot? they are jumping on wall street. hillary clinton says let's double down on dodd-frank and then she turns around and walks into a cocktail party new york city and says i'll take your dollars, thank you very much? al: they think she is going to win. -- she it with a number

builds her package with a number of wall street people. is something bernie sanders. she wants a little bit more tighter regulation but she does my go that far and a bigger slice -- sliding scale for capital gains is a number that wall street democrats can agree with. i make some of the rhetoric will be greater in the campaign when they start to govern -- and when they govern they find it will have to comedy more. stephanie: i will when jeb bush made the rounds in new york city. they were photographing themselves with him and now what? al: he is still around. maybe it still early and -- the republican race is clearly uncertain. jeb will bebound -- done for cocktail parties in the future. stephanie: of wall street doesn't mind when they see that no friends running? david: they like giving money to winners. supporting them.

i don't know yet who the winner is going to be or who might emerge as a likely winner. keep watching because that is where the money will end up flowing. al, there was no republican candidate that is a friend to the street? al: i think jeb bush is the closest. i'm so confused right now. if you look the previous track. theyeasury secretaries, come from wall street. the one thing that might be a little bit different because of the political environment, in mighty harder for the next president be at hillary clinton or donald trump or anyone else, will be a little bit harder to pick someone from wall street. i don't think that affect policy. lisa: at 1.2 people start reversing the view on wall street? it's always been a hate on wall street. what is the big issue now?

is it just income inequality or is something else? al: i think it is something else. people make a lot of money in silicon valley. but you don't hear them complain -- complaints about that david there are many complaints that after the great financial crisis of 2008 that may street has suffered. wages are still stagnant and people are struggling. there is a view that wall street has made out like bandits. i think that is at the core of the political perception. stephanie: hate the player, not the game. wise it wall street's fault? they did not decide keep rates were they are. they did not make the decision to raise asset prices. al: no, you're talking about perception. i hear so many people say we bailed out the big banks. i can defend every thing the federal reserve did back in 2008. but the feeling was we have suffered and they took care of the fat cats.

street withll excessive access, to be redundant for a moment, compounds its own problems. not exactlyvolcker, a pitchfork populist who said the only creative think wall street has done in the last 30 years is the atm machine. i don't agree with that either but then again it's white off a lot of people feel on the right and left. winsanie: do you care who or do you just want to know what the rules are so you can play the game? david: of course i care who wins. is the most important right we have a citizens of united states. stephanie: it was going to win? david: i'm not sure. i'm an undecided candidate -- stephanie: david is running! what does wall street want to hear from the candidates? david: they want to do people can execute.

they can't get the people to execute anything. they can't come to agreements on getting simple legislation passed. must people are that what is going on in washington because they cannot get anything done. lisa: is that why somebody people like donald trump? david: he's a phenomenon i don't understand. lisa: does wall street like donald trump? david: i don't think so. maybe al knows better. stephanie: are things shifting for donald trump? in the beginning he really had of middle america support base but we are hearing more and more business people say maybe he's got something. al: i don't think you will find very many of the top people on wall street who would be enamored with the idea a trunk presidency. -- trump presidency. they want predictability and that is not what he conveys. when he's talking about deporting 11 million people in

seizing oil fields in the middle ist, starting a trade war, don't think that's the kind of stability that most people on wall street, republican or democrat, would really like to see. stephanie: i am so glad you joined us today. happy vix -- happy thanksgiving. i will be in d.c. in two days and i will be knocking on your door. al hunt. and now a look at today's highlights. it is so important that we all have a great holiday season. we say to our employees it's really unfair that we work so hard 12 and set of the year. but if we don't finish the year between thanksgiving and christmas strong, it will be tough. biggest 92 .5% of all the products we sell are sold in stores. 85%, and biggest the longtime for now 80%.

the majority of the business that takes place in bricks and mortar's and i see the trend continuing. we will be benefiting with the strength of our online business. but i definitely think having bricks and mortar will be critical to long-term success for retailers like ourselves. the internet risk for a long time, that people shopping at home as opposed to going to malls, but we don't own a lot of mall property securities. the one that we own or highest quality ones because we believe there is some challenges long-term to those things. at the end of the day were looking at very specific property investments. individual companies and not looking at a market that might be high or low. everything we are buying is that discounts from the asset value. we are not paying the premiums or one might argue they are overpriced and at risk of some kind of deterioration. stephanie: best of "bloomberg ." i want to go back to tarry for a moment. so much emphasis and pressure.

that knows i like to make fun of the fact that whenever we get numbers, the weather was too warm. when you talk to the guy like terry, one of the biggest retailers in the world, easily can't look at any investment or company in terms of a three-day, three b, three month -- there has to be a long-term call here. david: i think the most important point i would like to leave you with is that you can't just focus on the short-term pieces of information. you have got to make judgments on fundamental valuations and think of a longer-term and let guys like terry run the business for you and give him a chance. take a point of interest -- entry. , yet toe in the $30's think further than friday. if you are an investor at macy's, would you want the spending that kind of money?

david: it is brand building and their brand is extraordinary because of what they are done every year. thousands of people turn out every year because of it and that help something good about macy's. stephanie: 3.5 million people watch. as i get you to shop in their store? lisa: me, no. stephanie: but to the parade mean you? matt: i grew up in ohio watching the parade in the big city of new york with a big balloons. i always thought of macy's when i saw the parade. when i came here, where did i want to go. stephanie: but you go in and it's too crowded. -- happy thanksgiving. come back soon, lisa. we will see you friday. at a great holiday. ♪

♪ to "bloomberg markets." ♪

erik: from midtown manhattan, good morning everyone. here is what we are watching the sour -- this hour. we are looking with brick-and-mortar stores are doing in the fight against online competition from amazon and others. as the price of oil -- has the price of oil reached the bottom and what will that mean for the global economy? i will speak with dana erg -- daniel ergen. and look at hp's different -- disappointing forecast. first, let's look at the markets. julie has an update on breaking new home sales in what is happening in stocks. julie: let's start with breaking home sales numbers.