ending good we are awaiting a statement from president obama. first, let's take you to mark barton. mark: stocks bouncing back from two days of losses as investors shrugged off geopolitical concerns. the european close starts right now. erik: people, you know how this works. we will take you from new york to london to washington all in the next half-hour, and mark barton is taking it off for us. mark: the geopolitical concerns have been forgotten about -- maybe that is because president obama, president hollande, chancellor merkel tried to display tensions. -- de-escalate tensions. here in the u.k., it was all about the chancellor george osborne. he issued his autumn statement,

raises growth forecast for next year, reiterated the forecast that finances would return to 2019-2020. it is a political speech, as they always are, not purely economic it he reiterated that he will increase transport spending and housing. osborne's day today here in london. erik: there was arrested for european travel and leisure in the form of thomas cook, u.k. tour operator. what did it announce? mark: what a day it was good look at the share price move, up 10%. hopefully it will show in a second. it was the biggest performing stock in europe today. interesting comments. have been hit hard since the paris terror attacks 10 days ago. it announced a profit for the first time in 10 years and this is important.

demand is holding up despite recent terror attacks. it said that the new fiscal year has got off to a good start with encouraging bookings for winter and summer. not only does it have to contend with of the paris terror attacks. you have the tunisia terror attacks. the metro jet flight, which came down over egypt as well. they decided tough year, along with the economic turbulence in greece as well. travel demand is holding up. that is something that travel and leisure industry is going to be very happy to hear about today. erik: i can imagine. mark barton, we will be back to him in a moment. here is the first word with courtney donohoe. courtney: we are awaiting on the president and a few minutes from now we will hear from president obama. he will speak to the nation about homeland security heading into the holidays. there is house is said no specific intelligence indicating that the u.s. will be a target of a terrorist attack. the president speaks at 11:40 eastern time. you can watch it right here on

bloomberg tv. some of those involved in a mistaken u.s. attack on a hospital in afghanistan has been suspended. that is according to the u.s. commander in afghanistan. the military is in saying who was relieved of their duties -- is not saying who was relieved of their duties. investigators say that the crew of the gunship thought the hospital was taliban compounded. at least 31 people were killed. a little more than two hours from now, french president francois hollande will ask a germany for help in fighting the islamic state. he is meeting with german chancellor angela merkel. it comes a day after he had talks with president obama. merkel says the german economy could get eight -- could boost its military presence in global hotspots to take the pressure off french forces. the refugee influx will have a positive impact on of the german economy. itmany is expected to absorb hundred thousand refugees this year. that is according to a bloomberg survey of economists. int should add .2% to growth

2016 and would more than offset the negative effects of the volkswagen commission scandal. of donald trump's republican rivals some airtime. mike huckabee, james gilmore, lindsey graham, they will get about 12 minutes of airtime on some nbc affiliates kid that is about the same amount of time point hep got hosted "saturday night live." the candidates will receive equal time. you can get more on these and other breaking stories 24 hours a day on the new bloomberg.com. time courtney donohoe. signalingcials are that they face a difficult debate next week when they will need to consider fresh to us for the euro area. mark barton in london, some are arguing that economic data shows no need to act. the estonian central bank governor is one of them. he says the latest data as a

surprise to the upside and he sees no reason to do more. we had a chance to speak to another policymaker earlier today in an exclusive interview. the ecb vice president told our very own hans nichols that the balance of risks is negative and the institutions revised macroeconomic forecast will be key to the final decision. risk in the euro area is at a low level. we showed, also, the position of the euro area in the financial cycle, which is related to prices in the asset markets. nevertheless, there are risks, of course. but we are less advanced in the financial cycle, we have lower pressures on asset markets that other parts of the world, in particular, the u.s. hans: when you mention risks, what is the main one? vítor: the main risk is that

possible reversal and the financial asset markets, which means that on yields would increase, contagion, and equity prices will also suffer, which implies capital losses for financial institutions. these can be triggered by several things. one is, of course, the possible spillovers of the increase in interest rates in u.s. also, acceleration of growth and vulnerabilities in emerging markets. ofo, the general situation low nominal growth in the euro areas. these are the main risks that may or not materialized next year. hans: but what if those three risks happened at the same time? the fed rate hike affects global stability and the slowdown in emerging markets and basically three-way tsunami? vítor: it will not be a tsunami because we do not expect the

effect of, for instance, the increase of rates in the u.s., will have a direct contagion in europe. economiesion of our is different, the fundamentals are different, the monetary policies are different, will become even more different after that decision, when it comes. indeed, the markets understand that. hans: you just to set could affect emerging markets. vítor: oh, yes, the indirect effect that could affect the euro area and in general, but it is indirect effect and that's a strong. impliesone element that that we see risks to the recovery to the other side. the recovery is ongoing. elements,s one of the if the spillovers to emerging markets will materialize in a

significant way. hans: what about what the fed might do? how will that impact your goals of achieving price stability? vítor: as i said, the direct effect we don't expected to be significant. we have our own policy tools aimed at our objective of ensuring price stability in the euro area. our tools are determined by domestic objectives regarding price stability. and so there is not such a direct impact. causesven if the fed offense of problems in the emerging markets, you see the euro go close to parity, you still think you have the available tools? vítor: we don't have any objective for cutting the change rate. what we do has no direct relation with the exchange rate. that is very clear. what we're doing is because we

have a scituate -- inflation that is very low and we want to ensure price stability in both directions. then it is up to the markets to react to our policies, which are strictly determined i domestic factors. hans: we talked about the fed being a trigger for these. what about global insecurity? we have a situation with turkey, the syria border. what about global risks? there are geopolitical risks, no doubt come on the horizon, and in particular, more significant that what may happen in several parts of the world, the act of terrorism in europe itself. if we have more can i let's hope not of course, then that could ,ffect, of course, confidence the degree of risk aversion, and the level of consumption, all that could be affected if indeed the situation would aggravate.

countries are now stepping up their security measures to avoid that. hans: just to be clear, you think the terrorism risk is a greater one of the potential risk with russia and turkey having a situation on that border? vítor: one never knows, but yes, the impact would be more direct indeed. hans: a question -- you are about to go into your quiet peri od. you cannot say anything before december 3. what is the last thing you will look at before you make your decision on what to do about the size of quantitative easing? vítor: we are having by that date stock projections for the next years, and that is a very important input for our decision because we think decisions with the medium-term perspective, it is important to see where the economy is going, where inflation prospects are, because

our objective in what -- with price stability is a medium-term on. that is an important element. also, the rate -- the data that may be coming about developments in the economy and also on the inflation. ecb vicet was president vítor constâncio speaking exclusively to bloomberg's hans nichols. let's be clear, despite those who have said that the ecb needs to do nothing, a 10-basis in accordingpriced to futures data, and a lot of banks are saying we will see either an extension or an expansion of the bond-buying program as well. it seems you could pretty much say for sure the ecb will do something despite the likes of estonia central bank governors and some of the germans who want the ecb to just hold pattern, let the current qe program take effect. much well, we've heard as

on whether than one occasion for mr. draghi. he has put us on notice that more stimulus is almost certainly coming. thank you very much, mark barton in london. we have an important statement, p on "bloomberg markets." president obama will be speaking in a few minutes time after meeting with his national security team this morning. ♪

mark: welcome back to "bloomberg markets," live from london and new york. this is the virgin i'm mark

barton. -- european close. i'm mark barton. erik: i'm erik schatzker. right now time for a look at the bloomberg business flash. cheap gas is putting more americans on the road for the holiday. americans will travel 50 miles from home this weekend, the most since 2007. the average price for gasoline, $2.14, down $.70 from a year ago. the parent of united airlines's offering was a 15% raise next year, according to people familiar with the matter. it would make united pilots close to the highest paid in the u.s. airline industry. united says it has an agreement in principle with the pilots union. theaters are looking to boost revenue anyway they can when the new "star wars" movie opens next month. they will be selling posters, keychains, and cocktails called yodaritas. shift,son for this

theaters will be paying a higher than normal percentage for each wars'" o disney, "star distributor. more businesses can always be found at bloomberg.com. now mark barton with today's big political and economic event in the u k mark: it was chancellor george osborne's big day. he heralded the strength of the economy vs. its peers. rne: whole osbo economy investment is set to grow faster in britain than in any other major advanced economy in the world this year, the next year, and the year after that. to westminster now, where my very own colleague anna edwards is standing by. good afternoon to you. i know it has been a very long day for you. osborne in very good spirits earlier, highlighting the economy's strength. did he pull any rabbits out of the hat? anna: yes, he did, mark.

good to see you. infelt decidedly wintry here westminster in london. we heard from the chancellor setting out his plans for the rest of the parliament. is big question going in whether he was read to be able and willing to stick to the forecast surplus at the end of this parliament. in 2020. but he still commit to a 10 billion-pound, round of $15 billion surplus? the answer is yes. 10.1, in fact, so he edged it up just slightly. he went on to say that still more needs to be done to cut the debt and deficit. he was able to use the higher growth forecast to work for him. the town moved up against the euro while he was talking, really highlighting the divergence -- the different momentum, at least, between the two economies, the difference in growth delivered, and the difference in monetary policy.

the big surprise from the headline-grabbing perspective is the climb down around tax credit. he plans to take the tax credits -- away from the poorer families and he found opposition in the house of lords when he tried to do that recently paid he had to back away from that plan today. mark: these days, they are not just days of the economic nature . they are essentially political days. today is about his spending plan. to becertainly going spending money in various areas of the economy, isn't he? anna: yes, this was a very political event as well, mark. they always are, but particularly for this man, a man who knows that by the end of this parliament, he has a chance to take over leadership of the ruling conservative party. david cameron has always that he doesn't want to do it, and so george osborne clearly has his eyes on that price. back to you. mark: anna, thanks. let's get back to erik.

president obama is issuing his statement. erik: we expect the president at any moment you step into the roosevelt room and to deliver a remark or some remarks on national security could he is meeting with his national security advisory team. washington chief megan murphy is in d.c. with additional perspective. megan: we are not sure exactly what the president is want to say. it was not scheduled until later in the day. we are not expecting huge news out of this, although the president can always surprise. what we have been hearing from him out of yesterday, after the meeting with hollande, and reiterated, that he wants -- people are always going to be congregating in large places, whether it is a station's networks, etc. it will be interesting to see if he says anything more specific than that or is talking about what we're doing in terms of our strategy in the wake of such terrible attacks in paris and elsewhere. erik: that is the balance, i guess, we are waiting to find

out if he strikes between what he needs to say and what he may feel some pressure to say about the response to the terrorist attacks in paris and the meeting , and whath hollande would appear to be a calendar event of sorts. it is thanksgiving, we need to be vigilant, americans need to keep their eyes peeled for potential assailants or even terrorists in the days ahead, because so many of us will be out on the streets with shopping bags. megan: i mean, absolutely, that is the issue confronting the president. what you don't want to have his people in a state of panic, people afraid to go about their normal business during what is posted to one of the most hectic shopping seasons, one of the most times when people want to be outselling rating and wanting to have a holiday. the issue is he has faced intense criticism, intense criticism in recent weeks for what people have perceived as a lack of aggressive strategy for combating islamic state. what we saw yesterday out of the lande is ath hol

slightly different tone from the president, a slightly more emotional tone, really tried to get across how strongly he feels about the nature of these attacks, how they are really cutting against the fiber come as we discussed in washington, of what it really means to be american and what it means to be european and how we want to go about as people and the dow daily lives. he has a very delicate balance to strike in terms of making the ball, and secure but also making people feel we have a strategy that is realistic, credible, and can actually target and defeat these kinds of terrorist attacks which we haven't grappled with in this country for in europe for a long time. i think that is what people are really looking to the president. they are looking at him to lea d on foreign policy and set out an agenda that people believe can move the needle on what is the toughest fights we are going to face in decades on the foreign policy front. megan, it is often

difficult to get americans to pay attention to foreign policy. terrorism, of course, helps to focus the mind. does the white house believe that a credible, sensible policy to-à-vis isis overseas helps make americans feel safe at home? isan: i think what you see that is reflected in the pulling and you see it coming through in the 2016 campaign. whatever is in and how we are going to secure our domestic borders and our international presence in the world has really leaped up as the issue for about the economy, far above other domestic agenda items, singly because people are scared. people see these attacks in paris and wonder how you connect ask the prevent that from happening. focuses the mind. what we really want to see is it needs to focus the agenda. it has already made people reassess their personal situation, their family situation, where everyone is at on a personal level. what it has not yet managed to do is allow international leaders to coalesce around a single plan for how we actually

are going to target this, and i think that is what obama and hollande were discussing at great length yesterday, constant talks with other world leaders, putin, etc., in terms of what we can really do, but of course to focus the mind, what people want to see is a plan of action. erik: megan, mark halperin of "with all due respect" just happens to have sent out next to me in new york city. i want to put this question to you. the president is meeting with his national security team and talking about the kind of pressure he is up against to make forceful and credible remarks, shall we say, about how this country is dealing with the threat from isis. to what degree is his policy in his outlook shaped by what is happening in the republican presidential race? well, he has a great deal of exasperation with of rhetoric that is gone on to him he often feels that way about the republican party, but particularly when it comes to national security.

there is the home is a good, the isis piece, dealing with putin, a lot of complexity to this -- and the president is frustrated when he feels that his critic's are not burdened with the same to grill of -- the same degree of responsibility and complexity. erik: well, he has to make real policy. mark h.: yes got to make real policy and he also has to be the post and 11 president, where a lot of what goes on, the drug program, the secret negotiations that go on with countries, none of that is visible, and the president cannot talk about it, for obvious reasons, but it asterisk level of expression it as to his level of exasperation -- it as to his level of exasperation. erik: why aren't we hearing for more people in the democratic party who have expertise, authority, and senior positions when it comes to national security and foreign policy? mark h.: well, we have heard from some good we heard from dianne feinstein on capitol hill, leon panetta.

there are democrats who have been critical of the president, and part of it is the white house focuses on the policy and extraordinary amount of their bandwidth taken up actually doing things, and they don't do what has become necessary in our 24/seven new cycle, which is sensor surrogates to end the fight the president's message. there are people close to the president who are always in his corner and don't believe that his rhetorical performance since paris has been as good as it could have been. on the other hand, they do thend him and say again, on matters of policy, where the president and the french are not whenpart on many things, it the united states foils attacks on the homeland regularly and has a robust program to do with the fact that since 9/11 there has been no substantial attack -- there have been small ones, but knows essential attack on the united states -- owing to the policies of president bush and obama. erik: megan, the president cannot be ignorant of what

russian foreign minister sergei lavrov was saying, the possibility that the turkish shooting down of the russian warplane was intentional and accusing the turks of possibly even seeking u.s. permission to go ahead with that incident. are we likely to hear anything about that today, or is the president or his advisers going to tell the president is better off ignoring it? megan: i think in this statement we are going to see i would be eally surprised if he touched on that. this could not come at a worse possible time in terms of where we are with the world tensions in the wake of paris, brussels emerging from a. lockdown. but i would be surprised in the context of the agenda he wants to bring people about national security if he touched on the specifics of this incident. in terms of what russia has said, it is becoming a very difficult and tense situation and we will have to see how russia wants to take this further and respond to put any sort of allegation that the u.s.

approved this, i would be shocked if you dealt with that in any specific language. that theno question incident yesterday has heightened the sense of tension and where we're going to go and what russia is going to do next to respond will be foremost on the agenda and i'm sure he will discuss it with his national security team in the minutes leading up to this and the our leading up to this statement. erik: what is it going to take for the paris attacks and now this most recent provocation around syria to become a lasting issue in the 2016 presidential race? mark h.: more than this. americans are still, while they are uneasy what is going on, there are other issues that are importing, including lots of economic issues. but i think leadership and the question of being the third post-9/11 president and those were already going to be issues in this race. part of why the republican party is struggling now is because their front runner and the candidate must -- highest rated on national security issues is a untraditionalan

candidate, to say police, and one that the party establishment does not think it's setting a good example for the leadership they want to have. erik: who does the party leadership think is a setting that kind of example? mark h.: the 4 establishment 10 days left in the race -- marco rubio, jeb bush, chris christie, kasich. all of whom a biographical art more in the mainstream policy and rhetorical-wise of the public and party. part of what is getting president obama -- guiding president obama's strategy and rhetoric is the believe that this is a war weary country. there is not an appetite for putting lots of forces overseas and engaging in excessive force whose outcomes are at best and egress and could produce -- are at best ambiguous and could produce negative results. at the same time, people want decisive leadership and a world where isis is not dominating and

creating mayhem not just in syria and iraq but now in europe. erik: admiral james stavridis, former supreme allied commander for nato, was on with us earlier comments that he does not expect the russians to retaliate against the turks, at least in a physical way, going after one of their warplanes, for example, or a targeting turkmen anymore than they have been already in syria. if that were to be the case, particularly if there were some incident directed against turkish sovereignty, to what degree with that change the game of the president that nato would now be forced to respond, not just the president, but the secretary of state as well? megan: this is what we were discussing before about how this has become an incredible he tense moment, inopportune moment for so many reasons. the one thing i want to point out of to project in russia is even if russia does not want to have an immediate response in some sort of

military way, turkey and russia in terms of trade connections is a huge issue economically good if russia seeks to exact retribution in that form, that could be just as damaging as if they looked to intervene elsewhere. that is an issue we need to do grapple with and the president will be watching very, very mostly what you are hoping for will be that he has prevailed, that we can actually get cohesion around what people want to identify as the principal threat to security and sovereign nations both in europe and the u.s. right now, that is the islamic state. this become a hurdle to achieving that consensus, it certainly has. president will be deeply focused on making sure the parties and actors involved are focused on that instead of side issues. the president is in a huge bind here in terms of