mark: i'm mark halperin. john: i am john heilemann. for all the turkeys not lucky enough to be pardoned by president obama, it's all gravy from here, guys. ♪ mark: happy day before thanksgiving, sports fans. a thanksgiving meal, a debate reel, william mckinley's appeal, and thanksgiving zeal. we will dig into what the president said this morning when he delivered a statement on national security and reassured americans that he is taking all measures to keep americans safe over the hol -- holidays.

president obama: right now, we know of no credible or specific intelligence of a plot on the homeland. let me remind you what our coalition is doing to destroy these terrorists and defeat their ideology. so far our military and our partners have conducted more than 8,000 air strikes on isil strongholds and equipment. those strikes, along with our partners on the ground, have taken out key leaders, taken back territory in both iraq and syria. john: how did he do? mark: he did well. i thought it was important to reassure american families that the country is safe, there are no credible threats, and that we're surrounded by the homeland security threat. he talked about the coalition and what's being done to defeat isil. and i thought his tone was pretty good, and there's been

comments here and elsewhere about that. i thought he did just fine. john: he was crisp, on point, and there was an obligatory feel to this. e did what he had to do. i hate saying those words. it was perfectly competent and solid. mark: thanksgiving is not celebrated elsewhere, so in europe you will see the french president continue his travels around the globe. germany and then russia. it's going to be interesting to see what kind of things transpire. it's not clear what the french want out of this. seems like they're pretty aligned with the united states and the president took advantage of that to talk about, again a coalition against isis. john: this is a global moment, and the rest of the globe does not stop over this holiday. it will be interesting to see. giving the prevailing sentiment, that will be flowing freely along with the beer, wine, bourbon and tequila tomorrow, we thought we'd chat briefly about

what some of this country's leading political figures should be most thankful for on thanksgiving. let's start with president obama. what should president obama be thankful for? mark: his loving family. who he'll be spending time on. on the political front -- the u.s. economy, that all the turbulence in the world has not brought more economic problems. gas prices are good, corporations are doing well. the fact that the economy has not tanked, the president should be thankful for. john: i think he should be thankful for not having to run an election again. but this time in each of the previous political cycles, he was in the thick of a presidential election and then re-election. he did not enjoy that much. i think now four years later, he is able to be president and not worry about that. mark: let's move on to the democrats trying to replace him. let's start with hillary clinton.

what should she be thankful for? john: she has to think about those 10 days in october when kevin mccarthy undercut the benghazi hearings, the first debate in las vegas, nobody talking about e-mails. when the benghazi hearing turned into a circus and nobody talking about the emails anymore. those 0 days may be the 10 days she looks back on. mark: no one has had a better run. she should be darn thankful for that. john: let's think about bernie sanders. what should the vermont senator be thankful for? mark: there is a poll showing hillary clinton beating him, but he should be thankful they start the nomination process in iowa and new hampshire. if it started any place else, he

wouldn't have a chance but because the electorate is tailor made for him and the media is focusing on iowa and new hampshire. his only chance to beat her is to beat her in those two states. he has a chance to do it. john: and the fact that he is better on most issues for the democratic base. mark: donald trump had a rally last night where he managed to shake things up. >> i have to do this. i have not done this yet. i brought my family. [applause] >> i brought my family. i just want to thank my family, and i have other members who are not here, but they have been so supportive. it's incredible. i just want to thank you. mark: what does donald trump have to be thankful for? john: coated in teflon. no matter what he says, he is still on top of the polls. says things that are arguably racist, arguably lies, he's still at the top of the polls. mark: he is a lucky man.

john: marco rubio, also in south carolina this week. today, a meet and greet with the voters. he has been taking hits from ted cruz lately. including a video released by cruz's super p.a.c. that hit him on being a rhino, rubio, that is, and being weak. what do you think marco rubio has to be thankful for? mark: he's had a decent years but he's the de facto republican establishment favorite without doing much. he should be thankful for the fact that the other seemingly strong candidates have not caught on. he has become the defacto leader. almost by default. jeb bush is also someone spending time with his family. he has lost traction in the polls. he did a couple of tv shows this morning. fox and cnn. what does he have to be thankful for? john: that he still has a pulse. he has had a horrible year. because no establishment

candidate, even with rubio by default, there is no dominant establishment front runner, which means it is theoretically possible for him to become that erson. mark: also thankful that his family name and connections are allowing him to continue to raise money. john: ted cruz, the rubio campaign has been going after him as ted cruz has been going after rubio. they'regoing against him for his statements against n.s.a. surveillance. the polls show that ted cruz is surging in iowa, so it appears to be all gravy. what should ted cruz be thankful for? mark: weeks or months without a lot of scrutiny. ted cruz has built fundraising, support, and volunteer support. he is in a great position without much scrutiny. john: he has been crowned by this new poll, the front runner

in iowa at a time when you want to become the front runner. mark: ben carson. what should he be thankful for? john: that americans have a short attention span so it's possible that terrorism and foreign policy may not be the dominant issue a few weeks from now and will allow him to stop suffering from his weakness on those topics. mark: happy thanksgiving. john: we will talk turkey with karl rove after these words from our sponsors. we will be back in exactly 60 seconds. ♪

>> for months, there has been a fierce competition between a

bunch of turkeys trying to win their way into the white house. [laughter] >> some of you caught that. mark: a man who has met his share of pardoned turkeys. former and perpetual senior advisor to george w. bush, karl reeve. he has a new book out, "the triumph of william mckinley: why the election of 1812 still matters." thank you for coming here. a rare opportunity to talk to you about politics. >> incidentally, i havegiven a permanent pardon to turkeys. , i go y allergic to it into anaphylactic shock. >> when is the last time you ate turkey? >> 1999.

that's a little overwrought isn't it? john: would you prefer to have a big blossom up there? mark: you caught our ear on "morning snow joe" when you thought the three most likely nominees were jeb bush, chris christie and marco rubio were the most likely nominees. why do you think those three guys over donald trump or anybody else? >> i was asked to put it down to a smaller number. i think 5-6 still have a shot at this. let's put ourself in late october or early november of 2007 or 2011, which is a comparable point to today. back then we were voting first of january, now we're voting the first of february. in 2011, we were at the beginning of herman cain mania. we still had newt gingrich, rick santorum, and it's not until february 28 that mitt romney takes command and holds it.

at this point in 2007, romney was ahead in iowa and then got eclipsed by mike huckabee, who loses to the ultimate nominee. who is running third or fourth in the national polls. mark: i agree with you that there are a lot of people who could end up as nominee. that suggests you think the cycle will turn out the way the cycle has turned out since at least president reagan, which is an establishment person is most likely to be the nominee? >> a somewhat conservative person can unite the party. i readily admit -- i could make a case on how donald trump could win or ben carson might win, but think it is unlikely. if you get down to it in reverse alphabetical order, rubio, kasich, ted cruz, chris christie -- john: reverse alphabetical is ard.

mark: what is the calendar path for jeb bush to be the nominee? what states -- >> he has to do well in an early state. he will not do well in iowa. could he do well in new hampshire and south carolina. mark: could he be the establishment leader in iowa? >> that is a social conservative evangelical state. that is why robertson wins it, mike huckabee wins it -- why rick santorum nips romney in the state, despite romney's deep roots from the 2008 race. it's sui generis. that's why bush wins it in 2000 then we have the debate, he was asked his favorite philosopher and he says jesus christ. if you were an evangelical conservative, that was better than socrates. john: let me ask you about trump. you have imagined a way that he could be the nominee, so what stops him? usually it is new

information. we know everything about donald trump. he has had every self-inflected gaffe, but he continues to dominate. what's the scenario that kills him? >> that behavior gives him a high floor but creates an increasingly difficult low ceiling. what happens is not that he blows up but that the other 70% to 75% of the party increasingly says, we can't accept him, and coalesces behind somebody. this makes the process longer. given the republican calendar, it means this contest could go on and on. think about this. 28 states, march 12 or earlier, and one of them grandfathered in as one of the february primaries, winner take all, take your pick, but they are proportional. all 24 march primaries, march 1 to march 12, are proportional. out of the february ones, one is

winner take all. all these delegates are proportionate. if you take the quinnipiac poll, split it out, you end up with trump in front, right behind him is cruz. the delegate totals are likely to be by the middle of march relatively close. john: in terms of the way these contests work, if trump wins iowa, south carolina, is he still viable? -- is he stoppable? >> yeah if he -- depends on if he's blowing everybody else out or if it's a 20% to 30% win and we see consolidation among the others. starting on the ides of march we have winner take all primaries in big states like florida, ohio, pennsylvania, and new york. this could go all the way to june where we have california and new jersey, winner take all primaries on june 6, to give somebody a majority of the delegates on the first ballot. or not.

or get them close to it. i don't want to say there's a big chance but given the fact that some party laws, party rules and state laws require people to vote for somebody on the burst -- first ballot or until they withdraw or drop below a certain floor, we are likely to have somebody walking into the convention center saying, i'm voting for somebody who is not on the ballot but i'm orced to vote for him. mark: we will leave it there for a moment. we will talk about his new book and what it means for your holiday weekend plans after this commercial break. ♪

john: we are back with karl rove. your book is not an obvious topic in a political season. what compelled you to write t? >> it is a compelling election. political scientists call it one of the five great realigning elections. but it's the only election we describe in a certain way. we talk about jefferson in 1800, jackson in 1828, lincoln in 1860, f.d.r. in 193 2. but in 1896, we spend more time talking about the guy who loses, william jennings bryant, a thnd eguy who follows him in office when he is assassinated by a terrorist, an anarchist. i stumble intod the story because i was interested in how did theodore roosevelt get from 1859 to 1897. because 1896 is the bottom of

theodore roosevelt's career. he's police commissioner in new york, hates the job, backs the wrong guy for president. the guy who wins the nomination is the only guy to rescue him from political oblivion and he doesn't think much of mckinley and mckinley doesn't think much f him. when i took on this project, a professor said you have to read the mckinley papers because he gets the election wrong. this is not a fore ordained conclusion. this is a battle that is decided by mistakes and brilliant insights offered by both campaigns, the most important of which come from the mind of william mckinley. he's an incredible person. three battlefield promotions in the civil war. enters as an 18-year-old private. his own ertakes at decision, a suicide mission at

ante tam. he undertakes that suicide mission and survived. is ordered on a suicide mission in september of 1864 by hisbury gade commander, colonel rutherford b. hayes a future president himself, and survives. and he's a man of enormous compassion. he loses his only two children at a young age. his wife turns into an invalid. yet he becomes an exceptional statesman. one of my favorite comments about him is by thomas brackett reid, the aer is big speaker critics e, he said, my go after me tooth and nail but mckinley's critics apologize efore they insult him. if you had a close election and your party lost control of the house, you were routinely thrown out of congress by your challengers. mckinley wins by seven votes. he is tossed out by a full vote of representatives, but seven

democrats break party ranks to keep him in the congress, and they are among his most respected and fervent foes. on the issue of pr pro tected tariffs. they oppose him deeply but they break party ranks to say, this is wrong, we should keep him in. mark: he did two things, challenged for reform and reached out to his opponents. what are the lessons for republicans in those two things? >> he comes at a time when five residential campaigns have been held, and nobody is getting more than 50%. the republican party is being squeezed in the south. there are four black majority states in 1896. blacks are voting overwhelmingly republicans and republicans get outvoted because the black vote is being disenfranchised by violence and fraud. he's looking around saying the republican party is in grave difficulty he said, i need to grow my party. and there are people ready to vote for our message if we will reach out to them.

they were mostly catholic, lots of new immigrants and mostly ndustrial workers. he aims his campaign at the emerging middle class and talks about economic issues in a personal way to them and sweeps the labor vote. he becomes the first republican presidential candidate to receive the endorsement of the catholic hierarchy. which is unheard of because we're the white, an glow saxson protestant party in the north, and we get the bishop of st. aul endorsing him. one of the most dramatic moments occurs on october 9, the last civil war veteran to serve as president. the country still has a lot of tension in north-south. into canton, ohio, comes train

load after train load of 2,000 men in butternut gray uniforms and their families, confederate veterans from the shenandoah valley, and they come as a sign of national reconciliation. and mckinley welcomes them, special badges are printed. no east, no west, no north, no south, but a common country. this is an emotional moment for the country. mckinley ends the campaign on a moment of great national unification by holding flag day parades and ceremonies all across the country on october 21 and unites the country and ignites a 36-year dominance of the political system by republicans. john: there are lots of echoes f things going on today. wfrltjufrlings bruelingdks -- william jennings bryant, i heard you reading from the cross of gold speech, bernie sanders could give that same speech.

there is no candidate on the republican side like a mckinley. >> there are a number of them. you look at the campaigns. there is a recognition on the art of virtually all campaigns -- donald trump will win on the basis of his own great personality, it's huge, it's beautiful. ted cruz has the belief in a lost cause, turn out more conservatives who routinely turned out for us but were turned off by romney and mccain because they're liberals, that's not factually borne out but you see the coke eo-- echos of, we need to carry our message to the black, brown, asian, young. in 1896, mckinley does that. he organizes under the tutelage of not the campaign manager, under the tutelage of a 30-year-old young man named charles g. dawes, red hair, parts it in the middle, he organizes everybody. they organize women, college students. this is the college republican

league vote. they carry every college campus mock election in the country except three in the south. they organize germans, scandinavians, 250 million pieces of campaign literature in 18 different languages. they organize traveling salesmen. they even organize young people in a new craze stwheeping country, bicycles. it is an amazing effort. mark: i could talk about the 1896 election all day long with karl rove. never thought i'd say that. s new book: the tribe of william mckinley" is in stores now in time to read for the holidays. john: up next, our bloomberg politics correspondent. ♪

♪ mark: with all the retail campaigning and events in early states, some of the biggest

political moments have been on screen. our culture expert breaks down why americans love the debates and why they keep coming back. ♪ >> it wasn't supposed to be like this. democrats had hoped their debates would be hillary clinton speeches. republicans only wanted to do a handful of debates. debates were seen to have too much power and influence, take up too much energy, and leave the candidates beaten up and drained. that was going to change in 2016. oops. this year's debates have been huge. >> that debate was three hours. it felt like more than that. >> they have been compulsively viewed as spectacles. waiting for someone to throw a chair across

the stage. >> at first, everyone thought it was just donald trump. has a beautiful face, and i think she is a beautiful woman. >> but then the democratic debate went gangbusters as well. if you want to watch "better call saul" or "fargo," you watch them on your own time and schedule. this has completely flummoxed the television industry. it has done wonders for the dwindling number of entertainers who can, as they say, do it live. whether it is an awards show or sports, programming that must be watched and discussed in real time is something advertisers and the rest of us crave. forget the chattering class. this year's debates are driving the national conversation and that is changing the debates. since kennedy and nixon, they have been about performance. now they are about tv stardom. everyone on stage is instantly

awash in the warm rays of the national limelight. no one had ever thought to satirize jim webb. after one debate, "saturday night live" has alec baldwin do it. or larry david parroting bernie sanders. >> maybe i will imitate larry david imitating me. will: ben carson took two weeks off to sell a book and nobody seemed to mind. those guys are winning. why? on debate night, they show up. don't think this is going away. no politician loves anything more than attention and the current debate rage is a national attention delivery device. the question is not, why would they run for president? the question is, why wouldn't they? ♪

vi here's my question. both parties have had criticism for the ways in which they have tried to manage the debate schedule. given what will is talking about, have the parties, are they getting what they want? are they frustrated by this outcome? mark: it is going to be a messy process. you have news organizations partnering up with political parties. you have campaigns that have more sway over things. donald trump stepped forward and said, i have got power, there is no debate unless i show up, so i will dictate some of the conditions. these will never be major policy discussions. they will always be theater. they will beat shows of moment of strength, and that is what they have then. that is as much as you can expect. john: debbie wasserman schultz, reince priebus -- they have all complained. too many, too few, but in the

end the numbers have been so and for both parties, that is a good thing. they should be happy that millions of americans are being supposed to their candidates and ideas in some form -- and for free. mark: that is all you can expect from these formats. if you can convince them to engage in formats that involve more direct discussion, you could have better even. the parties are risk averse. they don't want to take on risks that might be embarrassing for the candidates. our thanks to will leitch. coming up master chef danny , bowien is here to serve up some turkey after this. ♪

♪ john: that was danny bowien on last year's thanksgiving show. he is back. danny has a new book out. last year, we did the pastrami. this year, we are talking leftovers. go. danny: you go to a big thanksgiving and you do the turkey yourself, and by the time everyone has eaten, you are so tired. if you are like me, i don't even

eat at the restaurant. or you go to someone's place and they made a lot of turkey and you take it with you. the best part of thanksgiving is the leftovers. you wake up from your nap, maybe a little hung over. whatever. the first thing you want to talk about is the fact that there is not a lot of spice in thanksgiving dinner. carbs and fat, which is great, but we want to make it a little bit different. we did a smoked turkey. a lot of people like to brine their turkeys in a wet brine. if you are going to smoke something, make a dry brine, which is basically a rub. i grew up in oklahoma and i grew up eating a lot of barbecue.

t. rubbing mea >> exactly. you want to rub the meat with a lot of spices. john: oh, my god, it smells wonderful. danny: we smoke it over cherry applewood. 225, 20-25 minutes per pound. we bake it a little longer and crack it open at the table. you have to be careful. john: i have used this hammer at the restaurant. danny: you want to give it a nice --

mark: we could lose the whole thing. john: get this side. danny: i will peel off the clay now. john: turkey. danny: amazing. mark: the clay looks good, too. danny: it is that. let's talk leftovers. it is a funny story. the bakery was overnighting us bread. it got lost in fedex. the second best option, sons and daughters bagels. they have a commissary in bushwick and now they make all of their own bagels. i would take some of this turkey.

it just falls apart. mark: that is the most tender turkey. danny: because it is smoked for so long. i wanted to make something pretty interesting and different. mark: that turkey smells incredible. john: i am already eating it. danny: instead of mayonnaise, i thought i would do a crème fraîche. this is homemade crème fraîche. you need a lot. i will make you guys two open faced sandwiches. mark: i am preparing the napkin now. danny: i like to go in with this fermented pepper jelly. this is fermented persimmon and fresno chilies. mark: the contrast with a crème fraîche, incredible.

you are going to eat this open face right here on television? danny: i am going to switch places with you. the second best thing, i have a two-year-old. i like to make this for my son. he loves eating seaweed. in korea, they have this salty seaweed. john: this is so good. danny: this seaweed is dope. have you had this? in korea, you do not eat this by itself. you eat it with rice. i like to make little japanese rice wraps. mark: you can buy that in a 7-eleven in tokyo. danny: you can buy it here now. believe it or not. take some steamed rice and some of the smoked turkey.

you are already in there. mark: that will not be as messy. danny: this is japanese pickled plum. mark: one of the best ingredients ever. danny: a good sandwich always needs mayonnaise or something creamy. this is from mission cantina. all this is is sriracha and japanese mayo mixed together. mark: are you going to wrap that somehow? danny: pick it up and eat it like a taco. not the cleanest way to do it,

but delicious. the salty seaweed, the rice, the turkey. it is like a party in your mouth. [laughter] john: why is that rice so good? danny: it was cooked in a rice cooker. how do you cook rice at home? buy a rice cooker. john: that is an adult party in party in your mouth. the kind of party caligula would go to. danny: this korean is roasted and seasoned with sesame and salt. it is super salty. mark: what is that seaweed called? danny: it is just seaweed. the way you gauge it is by getting the right color.

john: we have to take a break because we have lost all ability to be articulate. all we are doing is just eating. we will come back and try to have a real conversation with danny about his book. stick around and watch that. ♪

♪ mark: we are back eating, listening, talking, drinking with our friend danny bowien. cofounder of the mission chinese food restaurant.

danny: this is the best thing you can ever do. mark: danny has a new cookbook out. it is called the mission chinese food cookbook. it is a cookbook with incredible pictures. the photography is fantastic. the recipes are great. a lot of great narratives about your life. tell me why anyone -- why someone should want this book. what do they get out of it? danny: this book -- it took us three years to write it. in the course of the three years, we sold the book before we opened mission chinese in new york. we sold it when san francisco was open. by the time the book was completed, we had opened a restaurant, closed it twice, opened a new restaurant, and reopened mission chinese food.

mark: and you did a pop-up. danny: it has been insane. it has followed us through our great successes and huge failures. there is no manual of opening a restaurant in new york city. if you read the book as a restauranteur, you can read it and say, i should not do that. as a cook, you can read it -- and the good thing is that we decided to make it appeal to as broad of a demographic as possible. my dad in oklahoma can make these recipes. the narrative is so good because i read it and i thought, this is my life. that was just crazy. john: the book has a narrative, which most cookbooks don't have. david chang says this book is

compelling because it is partly about a creative person and a creative person who got too famous, flew too close to the sun. i do not want to be like barbara walters here. talk about that, the dark night of the soul. danny: we came to new york and we opened the restaurant. the year we opened we got rising star chef. the new york times named us best new restaurant of 2012. and then everything started happening so quickly and it is easy to get distracted. i was not able to process all of that. i got very distracted and i was not in the restaurant as much as i needed to be. things fell by the wayside. anyone reaching rock-bottom, i was at the complete bottom. in so doing that, and in his book, i come to appreciate success and figure out how to handle it.

it is a lot. running a restaurant in manhattan is one thing -- john: especially at this moment in our food culture. danny: we were just young. i compare food to music and your first record when you are young punk band, all the time in the world to get it out. once you get it out, you are not ready for that. how do you handle that success. mark: what haven't you achieved that you still want to get done? danny: there is nothing else. mark: you are done? you are going to retire? danny: i think sustainability is the thing. being able to have the restaurants run and perform at the level they need to perform. in manhattan, it is crazy. the margins are so crazy. luckily, in manhattan and in san

francisco, people love to eat. i do not want for anything. mark: what about vegas? danny: i do not think i could do a restaurant in vegas. john: i want to talk about anthony bourdain. he makes this point, the driving --ine of astronomy gastronomy, we demand a place like mission chinese because of the fact you are making something new out of it. does that ring true to you? or is that overstated? danny: those are really nice words. what is crazy about the food industry, chang said, i will never be a great basketball player. with food, literally, five years ago, if anthony came in the

restaurant, i would go to the bathroom in my pants. now he is saying these beautiful words about what we do. mark: and you are totally dry. danny: i'm holding it, that is why i am crossing my legs. all of the positive things are being said and you have to take it in and appreciate it and absorb it. it all comes so quickly. i believe that what he is saying is true. we are experiencing a shift. instead of something that was made in the most authentic way, people want to have a window into a chef's -- what are they thinking? why are they making it like this? mark: what are you most thankful for? danny: family. i have a two-year-old now. last year on the show, my life was crazy. i am thankful for everything, but this family -- i would not

be able to be sitting right here if i did not have a supportive wife and son who drives me to be more successful. john: the new mission chinese new york is amazing. we agree. and it is better for some of the suffering that led to it. it is a better restaurant. mark: it is a great space and it is affordable. an incredible place. the new book called "the mission chinese food cookbook." thank you. happy holidays. we will be right back. ♪

♪ john: we will be back after the thanksgiving holiday. you don't have to go cold turkey without us. we are live 24/7 on bloombergpolitics.com. have a great thanksgiving. let's get the wide shot so that we can see danny is still here. mark halperin, have a great thanksgiving. happy thanksgiving to all of you. we will see you on monday. gentleman -- >> sayonara. ♪

♪

♪ emily: he is the owner of the world's very first model s, and an early backer of elon musk's tesla and spacex. a fast talker with an unconventional investing philosophy who once shadowed steve jobs. he has amassed one of the biggest private space collections in the world, and has spent his days pondering the future of artificial intelligence, genomics, and self -driving cars. joining me today on "studio 1.0," steve jurvetson. steve, thank you for being here. it is great to have you. steve: thank you. emily: i want to start in 1996.