down -- looks like it could spill over into the open. let's get the market open with caroline hyde. caroline: shivers down the spine of european equity investors -- a downward day coming after three-month highs, concerns once again about the slowdown in china. you will be hearing from evil a man in hong kong. and investigations into brokerages -- down goes the ftse , and we expect an overall down day across europe. we are also concerned about where metals are heading today -- that will affect oil majors. central banks -- what will the ecb do next week? what will the federal reserve do mid-december? could we see the end of stimulus in the united states?

also, you talked about that slump in the euro versus the yen -- seven weeks of decline, the longest stretch of declines we have seen since the start of the euro -- 1999. it is basically flat but let's look at this over the course of the week. we are off by half a percentage point and over the past 30 days we are down some 2.3%. , the rabbitt bit has come out of the hat for the ecb. december 3 is when that meeting is -- and oil is coming low over the past 30 days -- coming off that rally. there is some optimism about the political side of the equation and some agreement is being forged between france and russia, meaning oil is coming off its recent high.

libya is back on track. a quick look at some of these stocks. many are feeling that this could shell its contact lens care area. 1%.immon is up by 8/10 %.onc agen is off by 1.8 those that mean they are expecting more after dieselgate? jonathan: the stoxx 600 is lower, the ftse off, china dominating the session globally -- let's get to yvonne man in hong kong. yvonne: a selloff in china spreads across asia -- not a good friday for an already slow week. in chinese industrial

profits is really hurting whereent -- a 4.6% drop industrial profits fell. the shanghai composite ended fivd 5% down. japan stocks were down as well, the finance minister proposing in a your budget for the tpp agreement. the jobless rate in japan drops to a 20 year low and we saw -4% cpi -- this is the core cpi which excludes energy prices, which was up 7/10 of 1% but flowing from september. remain split on whether that means more monetary stimulus. weekend,e reference but we are approaching that three-month low. there was a surprise devaluation

and there is concern that japan will get a smaller waiting in the imf reserve currency -- anything less than 10% will start a drought. jonathan: yvonne man in hong kong. the shanghai composite closed, the hang seng still trading down by 1.9% this morning. here's what's going to happen on today's program -- chinese industrial profits slide. the shanghai composite sinks among concern. in geopolitics in focus as presidents hollande and putin agreed to coordinate strikes in syria. and is black friday met with resistance on european shores? the shanghai composite plunged this morning amid widening probes into china's biggest concerns over the world's second-biggest economy. for more, richard frost,

standing by in hong kong. good to have you with us. the shanghai composite is sinking approaching 7% before coming back -- is that the brokerage probes or the disappointing data driving the market? >> it is funny -- we spoke earlier in the week about how china will resume for the first time in five months and it turns out you are right -- there is no doubt that there is a sense that some of these emerging measures that the government is starting to pare back may have started to go back further with the first ipo. there is also the trigger for today, which seemed to be this program to the nation's largest brokerages. it wasn't that some of the biggest gainers during the rebound and earlier in the

summer we had a massive selloff with the daily limit and you also have the industrial poachers adding to concern that this economic slowdown isn't going to start picking up again anytime soon. this sense of calm that we have had, which i think encouraged regulators to feel that they can start trying to return to a more normal market, has suddenly been shattered. the big question will be what to the regulators do now? ,o they push ahead with ipo's or do they start to push back and impose more emerging measures? jonathan: good question. richard frost in hong kong. more from him throughout the morning, thank you for joining us. peter sullivan is the head of equity strategies, and here in the studio is the head of european asset allocations at barclays.

peter, first to you -- i want to talk to you about china overnight -- when i see a move like that in the shanghai composite -- what is new? what didn't we know already? think china slowing, the economy slowing, that is very well known -- investors are already reacting to that. the euro zone is the bright spot for earnings, the bright spot for the economy. it is very rare you can say that and we think we will get positive earnings in europe in contrast to what we saw in china. we will get positive surprises next year. surprise the positive next year -- the data out of china hasn't been great. it is another reason to worry about the yuan, to worry about industrials. from your perspective, when is the fear top down for next year?

>> well, it may have already happened in terms of the impact on emerging markets in europe. the key to things for europe are soy little wage growth margins aren't likely to pick up even though it is subdued. then we have very low bond yields that are likely to go lower, and that helps corporate interest payments. it adds up to positive earnings are prices. jonathan: they conviction story around the effects market is pretty clear -- you won't find , butgoing into next year there is a story around european stocks that appears to have diminished. based on the data you have, is it the same start? the storiesd one of it has diminished is that q3 was pretty bad. q2, 10% in q3.in global a massive

slowdown? or is that massive right off? we think it is primarily the commodity sectors and that we will bounce back -- that slowdown has caused confidence to dip. jonathan: as you look forward to december, since the last meeting mario draghi has been dovish around 12%. what is the upside for the rest of the year going into december when so much is already priced in? i would rather look to december, 2016. i think people get positive earnings growth and a central bank that is supportive. jonathan: the first quarter of 2015 is very much about the fx channel. let's call it qe1b -- how does it influence the market and how does it influence the stoxx question mark >> -- this stocks?

started toit has recover and no one was to factor that into their numbers. helps because it keeps bond deals and interest payments low, but apart from that is the reason for being attracted to european equities. jonathan: peter sullivan, great to have you with us. a quick word from barclays -- he will stay with us later on. you look at things developing in china, the proxy for concern about china was the dax. are you seeing enough overnight that makes you think twice about that conviction? >> not really. sense thatr in the everything is lining up nicely for european equities -- the economy recovering, the possible weak euro. jonathan: i want to bring the trade around -- as you look at

equities off the back of what has happened in china, do you buy the dip based on what you are seeing? >> not necessarily in germany. germany clearly trades with china, and we still see some influence in china. jonathan: up next, we are live in moscow as putin and hollande agree to coordinate strikes in syria. session, thed the ftse down by 36 points. good morning. ♪

jonathan: good morning from the city of london -- this is "on the move." the ftse is down by 6/10 of 1%. here are bloomberg's top stories. the shanghai composite plunged more than 5% this morning over concerns about the second largest economy as industrial profits slumped by 4.6% and regulators wide in the probe into the country's biggest brokerages. the euro is set for its longest stretch of weekly decline versus the yen since 1999 as anticipation builds for the european central bank surprising investors with stimulus next week. france and russia have a great coordinating strike to increase the focus on jihadist militants after presidents hollande and lujan that in moscow yesterday.

moscow, ryan chilcote joins us now. you look at the leadership -- cameron, obama, merkel -- they are all saying they are on board will stop has hollande succeeded in building that coalition people thought he may not build questio? ryan: maybe. we saw the russian president say that they would avoid areas where the so-called moderate controlled,as however he has made that pledge before. he also complained about going through the transcript, sharing information with the americans, saying that we gave americans all the altitudes and coordinates for our planes when they fly missions in syria, and they just shared that with the other members of the coalition -- why do we do that?

suggesting that the turks used that information to down the jet. russians have any sort of concerns about sharing information about the missions, it will make it difficult for real cooperation to happen. he made a nice pledge that it is all about what he actually does in syria after that press conference. jonathan: quickly, one step forward and another step back. russia and turkey. the escalation, the follow, does that increase or get worse? ryan: it will get worse -- we heard the russian prime minister say that his ministers have two days to introduce ideas, to come up with ideas for new sanctions and it sounds like they will be far-reaching and wide-ranging. even the effective travel ban that they have in place will really hurt turkey.

providemillion russians turkey with desperately needed hard currency that helps with turkey's current account deficits and at that money is offsetting that deficit goes away, that will put pressure on the euro. jonathan: ryan chilcote, great to have you with us. here in the studio is the head of european asset allocations of berkeley. thecan't help but notice -- dominant role france's taking in leadership. i wonder how this develops -- does it develop or does it stay -- or develop into something more question mark what are your thoughts? is natural that france's taking a big role because of the attacks in paris and i think it will stay like that for a while, but i doubt it will become a

more prominent role. clearly germany is still the powerhouse and they have been quiet about this because it hasn't affected them in the same way as friends. a commodity market insulated by the supply story -- a little bit of nervousness surrounding that downing of a russian fighter jet. is that too decline? >> it is always difficult to predict geopolitics in the oil markets and we have a constructive view on oil. but that is regardless of the geopolitics. so the dax last year -- we thought it was a proxy for anything that happened with crimea the what is the proxy in the middle east? >> that is a very good question. now,nk it is less odious

with crimea and russia they were important trade links, and now they are less obvious. clearly, the fact that you have the risk of terrorist attacks have to imply a risk premium on european assets. jonathan: you will stay with us. , as some retailers shun black friday, they are still heading to the shops -- we will ask the question. ♪

jonathan: happy friday. i am live from london. it is the day after thanksgiving, better known as black friday. this year for some retailers on this side of the atlantic, it has been a shunning of the shopping extravaganza. caroline hyde has the details. caroline: for the past two years i have been in the fight to brawl on high street. owned by walmart, known for bringing black friday to the united kingdom. not aear, it shunned it, bracing black friday, largely because of the damage it reaped within its own stores and the damage it reaped on its own

profit base. suddenly we saw a rock-bottom prices across many products. from before christmas we used to start sales after. many have been shunning on the high street black friday but it is still said to be a record year for the online area. amazon is expecting more than 7000 deals to bring in extraordinary records amount. overall, visa thinks they could bring in 1.4 billion pounds in the u.k. alone. a 17%ould be largely growth online. perhaps a quieter, calm or high street. the frenzy on the mobile or tablet as people get in on the deals that are still going on by other retailers, but trying to do it every friday, taking off some of the pressure on their website. you still have the likes of theseury's and tesco,

retailers really trying to crowd out the deals. in luxury dealers, liberty is on the deal as well. perhaps slightly less frenzy on high street. caroline hyde. coming into this year, the short energy and longer consumer. is it a little bit more nuanced than that? if i look at the performance of retail stocks, walmart is doing terribly, amazon doing very well. is that the consumer that i want to be going into 2016? well, the truth is that the consumer story has played out quite early. operations are now older. it is tricky to extrapolate that going forward. you have to believe that the

consumption strength will proceed. but in terms of the potential lapse that you get, perhaps it is not as good as it was. jonathan: peter sullivan of hsbc -- i'm sure some of our viewers heard what he said. lower wages in europe break the margins for european companies. but at some point those european consumers need the money in their pocket to buy out these companies. that lower earnings story is going to be terrible for companies out there. what are we looking at when you look at all those things? >> i still think it is good for corporate -- for households. if you look at spain for example, and the fact that interest rates have been lowered by the ecb, it really leveraging for the consumer and for corporate, and that is making them save some money. seems.ot as bad as it

ultimately it will depend on how strong it is that so far it has been -- jonathan: the strengthening of the consumer balance sheet, and the word you used was deleveraging. are we still in the deleveraging cycle? demand may be taking that higher, but the deleveraging cycle, how much longer does that go on for? >> we have plenty of room in europe -- we are still early in the monetary policy cycle, and these things help the deleveraging process. when i look at the credit cycle in the u.s. and europe, they are miles apart. it is a very different reality. that combination. jonathan: hold that thought -- we will talk credit shortly. up next, a renewable energy company on the brink of becoming spain's biggest business bankruptcy. 27 minutes into the session.

the shanghai composite has the biggest drop since august. a weaker session here in august. ♪

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what. you don't have a desk bed? don't be left in the dark. get proactive alerts 24/7. comcast business. built for business. jonathan: good morning and welcome back to "on the move." the hang seng down by 1.9%. 30 minutes into the session in europe, asia in focus. let's check the markets. the shanghai composite, biggest drop since august. screen.p on the early reaction, i know. the ftse 100 down by 32 points. the dax also lower by 0.2%. switch up the board. week near anto next seven-month low. pretty much dead flat on the

session. euro-yen, seven straight weeks of decline. that is a record losing streak. brent crude ahead of opec next week, $45 a barrel on the button. caroline hyde. caroline: i'm looking at minors -- miners. the slump you saw in hong kong. that, we are seeing miners were field with optimism, lessening any bearish bet from metals, and perhaps supporting prices in metals, all that optimism being sucked away by china on the concerns of industrial profits down. anglo american, down by 4.5%. the metal prices slump and the big miners slumped to zip. volkswagen is also under focus.

reports in german press said they could have an extended christmas break. spell about some of the hits they are expecting from so-called diesel gate? will the ramifications keep on flowing from those concerns about the hit? clearly, volkswagen, a key concern. let's end on a high. let's go green. vestas wind systems, up 3.8%. analysts, looking more favorably on it. upgraded to a buy from kepler today. they like it and they say overall, the wind market is going to the stable in 2015-16 and in the longer term. a bit of an uptick for those

more passionate about climate change. jonathan: what a week we have. 21, the ecb, payrolls, opec. abengoa, a company many of you have never heard of until this week, took one more step to becoming spain's biggest bankruptcy. its stock fell as low as $.12 on the euro. a bloomberg strategist spent a whole week looking at those bonds. joining us now. the corporate reality suddenly strikes and things explode. >> absolutely. that is one of the big things. the dovish review on the ecb, expectations for ending qe, the effect that has versus the fed. you chase yield in the periphery, you look at abengoa.

back in june, you thought you were buying the recovery trade on the periphery of eurozone. you go from 100 five cents down to $.12 on the euro. it tells you that in a risk on environment, you've got to look at what risk you are taking on and take more of a fundamental approach. jonathan: other people say these are very isolated stories. you put abengoa together with havewagen, who vcocould predicted that? simon: we are still positive in terms of credit markets generally. through, towards the historic lows on default rates. what it does tell you is that the debt risk can pop up in any location that you take your eye off the ball. there'sfor complacency. jonathan: you look at what's happening in sovereign debt and

you wonder why people are chasing yield. the amounts of debt in the eurozone, with a negative yield. the ecb are chasing their tail. even if they cut by 10 basis points, they're not going to be able to buy. how much worse does that get? the policy is pushing these yields down. one thing to consider is that one of the possible options for the ecb is to remove some of the limits they have on the debt they can buy. perhaps allowing them to purchase debt with already negative yields and below the refi rate. jonathan: simon, the world of richard fisher, former dallas reserve president, used to say that qe, suddenly the world and these bonds look so

much better than they are. at some point, you wake up and find you are not holding what you thought you were holding. how much of a concern is that for you? simon: we are trading negative after seven years in germany. there is an obligation for money managers to hit their yield bogeys on a quarterly basis. you have to chase further and further down the quality curve. the risk is that you are chasing just the yield rather than the conviction trade. jonathan: stay with us. financial stability in focus. i want to look at the u.k. housing market. figures show a slowing in property price growth. nejra cehic has been looking at the market. nejra: it was nationwide data showing a slight softening for november, price growth of 0.1%, the slowest in five months. they showed a slowdown on the

year as well. this does match with the data we had earlier in the year. remember that the u.k. housing market tends to be a little seasonal. in the run-up to christmas, prices often slow as fewer buyers look for properties and fewer sellers put their properties on the market in the run-up to christmas. the overall story is very much more about price growth in the u.k. housing market. it is down to lower borrowing costs, improving employment, improving wages, but also supply and demand. people have been talking about the big lack of housing supply in the market. nationwide said houses for sale are at their lowest level since the 1970's. the bank of england highlighted the housing market as one of the potential risks to financial stability. george osborne addressed this issue of housing supply in his

autumn statement this week, providing incentives for homebuilders to build more affordable homes. we saw those homebuilder stocks rally on that. this year on the ftse 100, those homebuilders are some of the best performers. berkeley group, taylor wimpey. watch those stocks today. barrett is one of the best performers on the ftse 100 today. jonathan: thank you very much. quick final thoughts from my guest, dr mohan and simon. ecb, more qe, more stimulus. another consensus view is that any financial instability could be handled by macro prudential talks. you look at the housing market in the u.k. are you concerned about financial stability? i care a lot about financial stability.

that is one of the key question marks in an environment where interest rate are likely to go up. what will happen with instruments, assets, that are linked to those interest rates? there has to be concern about that. it is a significant concern. jonathan: simon, what does it mean? you know what the spill across is. will we see it again? simon: you have to consider the regulatory environment as well. if we move towards a hawkish path in the u.k. and financial instruments start to weaken, with the regulatory environment now, it will become a more self-fulfilling negative spiral. it will be a very interesting 2016 as we play through these different stances.

jonathan: simon ballard and guillermo felices, thanks for joining us this morning. up next, oil, slippery slope as oil delegates gather in vienna next week. slum, andold crude's do they even want to? ♪

good morning. welcome back. the hang seng this morning down by 1.9%. the shanghai composite, the big dominant factor. let's get to your top stories. china's shanghai composite index plunged more than 5%. that as industrial profits slumped by 4.6% and regulators widened the probe into some of the country's biggest brokerages. france and russia have agreed to coordinate strikes in syria to focus on jihadist militants as president hollande and president putin met for almost three hours in moscow. the euro set for its longest stretch of weekly declines since its creation in 1999. anticipation builds that the european central bank will surprise some investors with its stimulus next week. seven straight weeks of declines.

payrolls next week. the climate talks. and this little thing called opec. a meeting in vienna. delegates have to wrestle with a 35 percent slump in crude prices over the past year. here with us is stewart wallace. are you going to have a group of people that really don't like $45 crude, and then the saudi's who said, this is what we wanted , let's see what the consequences are -- who wins? >> i don't think anyone will win. even the saudi's, i suspect, one it more around $60-$70. if you look at the strategy they came up with, the arctic has been wiped out, canada is not looking great, anything ultra deep offshore is also not looking great. you are starting to see it.

the real surprise has been shale. it has not been quite as dramatic as many were expecting. jonathan: that is the big story of 2015. the fundamentals for the future supply, they've taken a hit, but the year and now, the flexibility of shale. the saudi's and their strategy, how much longer can they tolerate it? stuart: a while longer. it is true that they've been drawing down there reserves quite dramatically, but they've got a way to go. they've had several years of $100 plus a barrel. it is true that within opec there are others that are suffering much more. venezuela, algeria, so on. now you have iran returning. we will see a lot more barrels out of iran next year. we presume. strangely, that puts saudi arabia and iran sort of in the same category.

they are working on the same strategy. they fundamentally disagree on that strategy. where i plays is devil's advocate and ask a very flippant question. the opec target they set next week, does it matter? does anyone make space for iran? stuart: no. they will carry on doing what they do. never beeny, they've good at reaching their target. we may well see an increase in that target next week. that is to account for the return of indonesia. when you see a higher quoted number, don't assume that means more barrels. jonathan: the additional member in opec, indonesia, that could come out next week. why do they want to be a part of opec and why do opec members want them to be a part of it? the import fake and export dynamics seen -- import-export dynamics seem very different. stuart: interesting question.

from indonesia's point of view, it is prestigious to be part of opec. from opec off point of view, it has someone who used to be in the group and now is back in the group and is a net importer of energy. thoset sure either of really gets you to the full answer. wallace, willart kennedy, happier glass, three busy people. up next on this program, ecb stimulus speculation and the last u.s. jobs report the for the crucial fed meeting. a huge week for central bank watchers ahead. quick check in on the markets for you. the ftse 100 just trading lower this morning, down about 0.5%. the stoxx 600 lower. the dax down by 0.25%. join us on the other side of this break. ♪

jonathan: good morning. welcome to "on the move." a quick check on the equity markets. ftse, a little bit of a pullback. the dax as well. the dax almost dead flat on the session. big stock story, the shanghai composite. biggest drop since august. more news out of china.

let's get to some of those headlines with mark barton. the china industry is banning brokers from fixing derivatives. the securities regulator has been in the spotlight. a number of the biggest brokerages sank today. the securities regulator will probe a number of them for alleged rule violations. this is as part of this move against the country's biggest brokerage, where some top executives have been placed under investigation. the firm already received a notice from the china securities regulatory commission on thursday, saying it will be investigated because it allegedly violated regulations on the supervision and administration securities firm. a number of firms are being probed. this is the latest headline. chinese stocks plunging by 5.5%.

the biggest plunge in three months. the industry body is banning brokers from financing with derivatives. jonathan: great work. much more news on that and the headlines that come through. before we look at break the next week, a look back at the week that was. tuesday, russia's micex hit a 2008 high in early trades. then came the news that turkey shot down a russian fighter jet close to the syrian border. russian stocks plunged. vladimir putin called the act a stab in the back. wednesday, the largest independent investment bank in latin america lost more than a fifth of its stock market value after it billionaire founder and chairman was arrested. its financing cost doubled. andre estevez denied any wrongdoing. p the stock sto

from falling almost 39%. thursday, the euro fell to its weakest level against the dollar in seven months. that is after ecb president mario draghi reiterated that he will do what it takes to accelerate inflation towards the 2% target. that was last week. the leak coming, what a week. thursday, ecb decision. friday, opec meeting, u.s. payrolls. the whole of bloomberg is busy. richard will also be a busy man. , the most i asked you important event next week out of those three. throw in the climate talks as well. richard: always stick with your first instinct. i think payrolls. we talked about the ecb. expectations are high. let's see what they deliver. i think the payrolls are going to the very important.

as much as we are watching the ecb, the oil price, a lot of this really comes down to the fed. 2016 will be a year driven by what the fed does. jonathan: you are an fx strategist. i see the calls for euro-dollar. the calls have come down. we are down at 1.06. is that how much upside is left for the short euro trade going into next month? is it worth it? richard: like real estate, it's all about location, location , location. if you are short from very nice levels, you are probably looking at taking a little risk off the table here. i think you approach that 1.04 handle as quite a bit of profit taking. i wouldn't want to be short here because i think we could get a bounce. , think if we get to that level

you will have a lot of investors licking their lips. jonathan: friday, 1:30 u.k. time, that payroll numbers comes through. people will think, how bad does that need to be to stop the federal reserve from hiking interest rates the following week? does it need to be a negative number? is it a one-way freight train? richard: the fed seems determined to act next month and i think it will take something really shocking to throw them off course. also, i know we've had a 5.5% drop in shanghai and that is a big deal, but we would need a lot more of those external factors to weigh on the fed, including a really weak payrolls . i think they are pretty much determined to act. they will probably try and reassure investors that it's going to the a very shallow path. i think december, it will take

something pretty significant to shift. jonathan: the china story hasn't changed. the shanghai composite takes a beating. the equity market bouncing back this morning as i look at the screen. the dax pretty much flat. is the only thing that matters next week the ecb? richard: i think so. it takes a lot to shock us from china. after all the bad news we've had, and that flow has been consistent for some time. as we go into next week, the ecb is first and foremost. once we get out of the way, we've got the fed. jonathan: richard jones, have a great weekend. that is it for me. if you want to talk markets, i am on twitter. from me and all the bloomberg team in london, have a fantastic weekend. best of luck for the rest of your day. ♪

the shanghai composite closes down 5.5%. retaliates. president putin cuts economic ties with turkey as he and hollande fail to find common ground over the fate of assad. and paris remembers. a memorial service for the victims of the november 13 attack. welcome to "on the move