tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg November 27, 2015 6:00am-7:01am EST
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greatand hollande -- the illegible. black friday. retail adapts and retail panics over amazon. good morning, everyone. this is bloomberg "surveillance" live from our world headquarters in new york. it is friday, november 27. jon ferro in london. we have a day that is supposed to be quiet heard forget about it. markets move. jonathan: the dollar index back to 100. that was the pain threshold for the federal reserve and spring. the big question for the december meeting, you deliver a high. how shallow is that going to be? about on thetalk foreign exchange but the bond market. a busy day. here is our bloomberg news. vonnie: the president of france is vowing to destroy the army of fanatics. todayis hollande spoke
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during ceremonies honoring the 130 people killed in the attack. he return for moscow where he were should agreement with russia. hollande met with vladimir putin. russia would avoid hitting moderate rebel groups in syria. prime minister david cameron said he might ask parliament to vote next week on leading british jets bomb islamic state. brussels is returning to normal. belgian authorities lowered the warning. but police are still searching for one of the suspected leaders of the paris attacks. s foreign minister is saying today that he hopes diplomacy can ease tensions with russia but that is not stopping moscow from trying to punish turkey from downing one of its bombers. russia's prime minister is drying up a list of economic links to cut with turkey. a gas pipeline plan could be canceled. u.s., donaldhe
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trump denies mocking a journalist. claiming he does not know who the reporter is. but the new york times reporter says he is interviewed trump and his office and was on a first name basis of with him. get more on these and other breaking stories 24 hours a day on the new bloomberg.com. tom: best cartoon of the day. it was a donald trump macy's day balloon. vonnie: didn't see that one. i was looking at spongebob squarepants. tom: donald trump in the macy's parade as a balloon. without being political. hillary. didn't see tom: let's do it equity check. i thought it would be a younge -- a yawner. forget about that. dollars.p 3 eur o crude, we do not have a 41
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print. onto the next screen quickly. the vix 15.19. equities 17.8. euro-yen we will get to in a second. jon ferro and i will talk chinese stocks in a second. abenomics. we are rolling over at a key juncture of support going against abe with the deflationary forces. vonnie: exactly. huge forces. that is pumping a huge fiscal stimulus, including payments to pensioners now. tom:jon, tell me about the china stock market. today was a plunge, wasn't it? jonathan: and epic plunge. , thee in this morning shanghai composite down to 5%. i was scratching my head.
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industrial profits slumped in china. that was a concern. what is happening with a brokerages in china is what people are looking at. for liquidity. for margins, financing as well for some of these retail investors. that is what is stimulating the chinese stock market. tom, what i will say is that shanghai composite china story is very much just a china story this morning. elsewhere in the fc markets, unchanged, dead flat. vonnie: europe got to figure this has debated do with the commodities producers -- you have got to figure this has to do with the commodities producers. tom: iron ore a bit of a bid this morning. futures up, too. this is a real tree. is legendarywitz within retail. "they ares line is -- in the crapper." howard joins us. this is nothing funny for
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retail, is it? howard: no. thousands of stores are going to be closing. malls are going to be closing. he never really dealt with the key problems. he did a great job managing it, but he never dell. every department store is the high cost operator. how the hell to you survive? tom: how do they? how do department store survive against amazon and specialty retail? the department stores, a lot of them are going to continue to be great like the downtown stores but lots of those stores and the malls are going to have to be close. and terry lundgren is the process of closing them. he does it every single year. is going to keep doing it. he got a lot of weak stores. so, a lot of those stores are not going to be viable -- they cost too much. it costs them 10 points more to run than their competitors.
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vonnie: what is going to happen to all that real estate? reports are department stores were sending out letters to their store owner saying you must open on black friday. market because it is a share game. look, if you are a department store business, you have lost market share for 20 years. 20 years! that's just going to continue. you're going to lose it to the discounters. tom: my basic take and the photos in garden city east of new york city on long island. howard, is the bloom off black friday? howard: it absolutely is because by this afternoon it will be over. it will be dead. amazon. it'll be over. tom: what is your record in boxes from amazon outside your door? mine's six. vonnie: i tend to stagger mine. tom: we are in the seachange of digital -- vonnie: where are consumers
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buying clothes. if you look at overall all my shopping, it is only 12% of sales in the u.s. people do like to try on clothes. howard: the problem is there are too many stores doing the same thing. you want to know who really figure this whole thing out? lex wexner. l brands. who became a billionaire and it. the apparel chain business. abercrombie, lane bryant. what did he do? he got rid of all of it. because he understood that there's an oversupply in there to meet people doing the same thing. and he got into lingerie and cosmetics. that is management! tom: the hudson bay of canada and we had sex with avenue. you bring up their site -- we had sachs 5th avenue.
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and then it's 40% off. what is that number going to be after christmas? off.d: 70% the thinking of sam walton. walmart started in 1999 checking room with amazon. you know where they are today? 2% of their business online. they've spent billions. they have acquired all these companies. they should've killed them in the cradle. tom: let me bring in jon ferro. jonathan: great to meet you. first question to you, and europe the retailers deal with the same thing. the legacy retail, legacy real estate assets. who is ahead of the pack in america with a real estate assets? who is ahead of the curve? who is the most nimble out of the american retailers? howard: american retailers are doing all cons of things with real estate. a lot of it crazy. -- all kinds of things with real estate.
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all kinds of arrangements. i think macy's approach to it is the smartest. because if you're in a department store business, you have got to control your real estate. or if you are in the food business, you have to control the real estate. you can get a lot of money up front and came leases for ever and you will be cooked and you don't control the real estate. so that i think macy's' approach of doing it a chunk at a time is the best. jonathan: your advice to the retailers in the u.s., is it to get out of the real estate before the supply comes online at the same time? what is the advice? howard: look, great stores are going to continue to be great stores. we got 400 great malls, they will still be great. we got great downtown stores in great cities. they are worth a fortune.
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they will be worth even more. new york real estate, chicago. tom: why is retail so bad? if you look at a chart of the internet stocks like amazon versus, macy's, target, i mean, the market is pricing depression in bricks and mortars. howard: the market cap of amazon is more than walmart. that's pretty serious. tom: you have a cuppa coffee with jeff bezos. what is your prescription for him to do, women's fashion. deal forhat is a big christmas because the biggest christmas gift is apparel. and apparel stinks. ins going to do well everything. vonnie: buy nastygirl.com. fast fashion on the internet. isard: hudson's day
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expanding. this is a real estate operator. this is a guy who did the best job in evaluating. he buys sachs. sachs 5th avenue store is worth $2 billion. he pay that for the whole sachs. they did not know what the hell they even had. davidowitz with this on black friday. brandon of toys "r" us, talk about managing a headache. david brandon, look at that at the 7:00 hour. ♪
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vonnie quinn. vonnie: thanks so much. we are talking about the volkswagen emissions scandal first because some early models could be swept into that cheating scandal. "the wall street journal" is reporting the u.s. and germany engines.tigating audi regulars think the car has a software that tricks pollution control test. china is expected to pass the u.s. as the world's largest airline market within 15 years. industry group predicts the world's passenger total will double by 2030 42 7 billion. this will be a long day for shoppers and even longer for some workers. many of the nation's 15 million retail employees will be back on the job is black friday it a tempsgroup says 700,000 have been hired for the holiday season. that is our bloomberg business flash. wahlberg turned on the -- walmart turned on the black friday magic at 6:00 p.m. yesterday. shannon is outside the store in
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secaucus, new jersey. let's have a listen to what the target ceo had to say about the consumer. >> we recognize we still have a cautious consumer. they are in our stores and online today. i'm encouraged about the early trent. we expect that continue. vonnie: your outside a walmart. is the consumer over lining up for discounts? inonnon: they were out here force last night. at 6:00 a.m., and they are still in the stores. yeah, there has been a lot of talk about black friday not being as big a deal in stores as it used to be because so many deals are online, but still, shoppers are coming out. maybe not in record numbers but retailers are hoping expecting they will this year, even despite all the activity online. vonnie: this is surprising given what we have been hearing about online and how black friday is dying.
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have you spoke into any of the employees and the idea that they are getting a next her discount. shannon: for the employees, yeah. obviously, some people have said employees do not want to work black friday. with theiro be home families. for employees, this can be a good deal. they get overtime. and walmart offers a big discount for the employees who shop on black friday. that draws them into the stores as well. tom: what is the effect of amazon on walmart? shannon: well, you know, this is been a huge investment that walmart has been having to make online. they put all their black friday deals online first starting at on thanksgiving p review did not even have to come out to the store, even though people did in droves yesterday. you can go online. at the stores believe, and this is the perception from ceo's, there are two types of customers -- one that likes to go online and one that likes to come in the stores. but walmart sales are
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slowing online. 10% in the third quarter. along, 30%ging growth online. amazon is still the elephant in the room. and amazon was out last night with her own black friday deals. even though they do not have a store. they are not waiting till cyber monday. i was on the amazon website, it was kind of slow. things were selling out. some of the hot items were sold on on amazon just like anywhere else. amazon is just becoming each year a bigger and bigger factor for these retailers and a bigger expense they have to deal with investing online. tom: thank you so much from secaucus, new jersey. the obligatory walmart shot. howard, it is just amazing to me how everybody wants to recapitulate our habits of retail. but those habits are being broken. howard: the amazing thing is the mismanagement in the retail business. what the? walmart is building the super -- for the last 15 years.
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and the small stores, dollar general, are gobbling up market share. t's response was to jerk around with these little stores for 15 years! and they're nowhere! that is mismanagement. tom: i want to come back and talk to about zara. in women's apparel, it is the ending of a habit. jon ferro in london. coming up on bloomberg radio, a aboutation with john -- your level of bullishness. that on radio. worldwide, in boston, new york, and san francisco. ♪
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tom: perfect thanksgiving weather in york. macy's day parade was absolutely fabulous. just perfect, perfect weather as well. on to black friday and a good weekend at we hope you travel safely. come sunday, sunday is when nobody -- nobody ever talks about sunday is difficult. you have got the morning must-read. jonathan: i do. april 21, 2015. bill gross tweets "german a-year bunds the short of lifetime. only question is the timing." the short of ans lifetime. this is mark gilbert in the last few hours.
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is not accelerating inflation. bond trieprices are not dropping." inflation is not there. >> in april when bill gross recommended this trade, you're the first couple of rounds of intervention. they had done some bond buying. they had bought their first 120 billion odd of government bonds and you started to see some women in the german bond pr -- some movement in the german bond price. most compared to when the pound exited the erm. they were on the way. what happened then? people lost faith in q.e. they are still buying bonds. you look at any indication where future inflation will be, the thing that will send the bond price down, you look at future inflation, no one is expecting inflation, no one is expecting the target. jonathan: there is a critical
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point for mark gilbert. the success of ecb stimulus, do not judge it by how low the yields go. judging by inflation expectations. higher yields in germany. that is the point. we don't see it. tom: mark gilbert, you and i interviewed the greek financial crisis ago. how has the ecb changed since you and i sat down in frankfurt years ago? mark: the biggest changes it is now, it is the only game in town. if you look what governments are doing across the eurozone, they are not acting to stimulate the economy. and you know, there's massive expectations -- the ecb is going to have to do more p review look at another rate cut, stepping up to the program, bigger amounts, extend how long they are going to do it for but it is not working. even the bank of the princess q.e. -- even the bank of england says q.e. is not doing it. tom: what does the best
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researchers say will be the outcome for logan negative rates when we turn around and move the other way, do we do it with stability? mark: we will see what happens when the fed eventually moves. theif you look at diversions between two-year u.s. yields and two-year german yields, the theme for next year 's policy diversions between those two regions. if the fed can get away with andaking intreserest rates, maybe on a quarter, and the treasure market is not fall out of bed, that might give you an indication -- an indication of what rates will do. to tomn: you call -- kings point, can you reflate the bond market? mark: markets tend to overshoot. we know that. has been shown time and time again. bond god i'm not a investor. that must be the hardest job in
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the world. if you look at germany, every seven years you pay for the privilege of lending to the german government. how are we supposed to deliver your pensions and if i'm it like that? you can't. it is an insane market. jonathan: when i went to school, a lot after you went to school, i've got to say, but in the text books professor never told me this. he told me if you accept risky get paid for that. i do not see that in your. tom: did jon ferro just take a total slam at me? by marki'm fascinated gilbert's twitter feed. tom: when i interviewed conrad adenauer, coming up -- bloomberg go. ♪
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banking sector said to be closing its private banking business in india. the company will move employees to its premier banking business under retail banking. this is the company pares back on money-losing business. selltis is considering a care unit.lens good morning again. the president of france is talking tough on terrorism. toncois hollande is vowing destroy the fanatics responsible for the paris attacks. he spoke in ceremonies honoring the 130 people killed in the attack. he returned from moscow where he reached an agreement with russia to fight the islamic militants in syria. two israeli soldiers were heard when a palestinian rammed the car into a bus stop. the driver was killed by a bystander. israelis and 95 palestinians
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died in random attack since mid-september. ben carson will reportedly make a surprise trip to jordan to visit syrian refugees. the new york times says the presidential candidate was to burnish his credibility on foreign issues. carson has fallen behind donald trump in recent polls. pope francis called -- the pontiff visited a shantytown in nairobi today. he also stopped in uganda and the central african republic. you might think america's worst drivers are in gridlocked cities but insurance group the most dangerous u.s. drivers are in montana. new mexico and south carolina. i guess they are getting distracted by the beautiful scenery. we will have more any stories and other breaking news 24 hours a day at the new bloomberg.com. tom: whoever did the survey, do a rotary in massachusetts. try to figure out rotaries in
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massachusetts. what are we talking about? black friday. let's talk about china. jonathan: let's do that. who cares about black friday? we're not doing it. chief economist at lumbar street research. the shanghai composite down 5.5%. ak industrial profit or was it the probe over the brokerages? >> all of it, to be honest. chinese realty -- growth is much weaker than the official data suggest and the data coming through suggest some stabilization but it is much weaker level. say itn: what do you is? >> in quarterly annualized terms, growth was just 1.5%. on average, over the last seven quarters, it was just under 4%. tom: look at the quote from
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steve roach this morning writing over the weekend. this is really interesting about fear and confidence. " converting fear into confidence is a daunting task for any society. china no exception. the focus on resolving their macro economic disconnect reflected at the fifth plenum and a likely precursor of what to expect in the upcoming 13th five year plan." i think that is great. diana, telling about the 13th five-year plan. what will be the new normal for the leadership of the communist party? diana: the most important change as far as im'concerns is very fast by chinese standards financial market liberalization. already and likely to continue going forward over the next five years. the reason why i think this is so critical is because it's the absolute most important reforms that need to happen for china to
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rebalance its growth from investment to consumption, but also to allow the global economy to rebalance. wu writing on a weaker chinese yuan. is anow, diana, that massive move. then you see the equity markets re testing the confidence. it seems like the system is almost out of whack. and the only solution is going to be currency depreciation. diana: currency depreciation has to be part of the successful adjustment in china. actually, china so far has been the only stable economy that has not engaged in competitive devaluation. japan and the euro area have. out of those three, it is china that has an overvalued currency, which has certainly contribute it to the growth slowdown. jonathan: here's the thing. i'm looking at the fx market.
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i can see the channel for contagion from china. the credit market interest me. the growth and nonperforming loans and china. we are coming off for the growth is aggressive. does that continue for you? diana: the pace of increasing credit in china is alarming. in level terms,t china is not as yet overleveraged. to iat has one last chance either rebalance and cleanup past excesses and sort out its financial system, in which case, we will likely see some deleveraging and the private sector but government debt go up. so, in overall terms, there will be an increase in the future in debt. much like what happened to the u.s. or the u.k. when they were going through the adjustment after the crisis. if the chinese and 30's forget
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reform and just throw money at the economy, they -- if the and justorget reform throw money at the economy, they have three or four years before a major crisis happens. so far they seem to be on the path reform. jonathan: how do they make that path to transition? you cannot have that kind of explosion in credit. there is no example in history without a major crisis. can they make this transition and smooth out things, just carry on life is normal? certainly, it is not going to be easy and it is not going to happen without major financial distress. a major crisis for you, because i think that would make clear things clearer. when i talk about a major crisis, i mean one afterwards china can no longer grow at any catchup rate, so it grows at 1%, after a recession and a lot of disruption. they have a chance of cleaning
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up the existing access -- excess and moving on to grow at say between 4% and 5% sustainably after two or three years of financial distress. if you assume a very drastic case in china, that none of us nkow what is the size ---- know what is the true size of bad debt. let's assume that 50% of all household debt and all the new loans that were given out in the last three years is ba d and zero is recovered -- if the government has it on its balance sheet, growth goes up to 110% of gdp. it is a huge jump but it is about manageable. tom: th jonathan: thank you very much for joining us. coming up, pimco on bloomberg markets. our chief investment strategist
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jonathan: this is bloomberg "surveillance". i'm jonathan ferro in the city of london alongside tom keene. let's get to vonnie quinn for the business flash. vonnie: black friday crowds may not be as big as in years past. onlinepect yesterday's sales to be 22% higher. gold is trading near a five-year low. investors are shifting their focus on global issues to the u.s. interest-rate increase. that would make buying gold less attractive. airbus is pitching a new
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supersized version of its superjumbo a380. passengers.arry 615 it would be perfect for carrying pilgrims to mecca. up to now the a-380 has not had more than 517 seat. s. i love the marketing there. tom: i have never been in a gin ormous plane. they canceled me three times. i really don't care, but i've just never been on a big flight. on this black friday, we are thrilled to bring you the perspective, the real estate perspective with howard davidowitz. he has decades of experience in listening to every story in ralph laurenlike succeeding into many others going down in flames. chinesehem hinge to the consumer, the foreign consumer has vapored.
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has absolutely disappeared. can you do a business plan in retail now based on chinese shoppers coming into america? would: i don't think that be the basis of a business plan because the chinese shoppers, there's lots of them, they are shopping in downtown stores mostly. so, the people that are losing out on his big, giant stores -- macy's, bloomingdale's, bergdorf's -- but thseese are chains. tom: the other stuff is the headache. jonathan: of course howard: of course. this is a piece of the business, and the luxury piece. tom: what happens? vonnie and i were talking about this. the idea of do they consolidate? do people just go away? what's out there one year or five years out? howard: what is going to be out there are great stores that are great store now and great malls.
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400 ioof them. they are going to be out there and they are going to be great. the problem is the wreckage from all the rest of it. there are thousands of nonviable stores. a lot of them will go broke at the end of this year. big chains with lots of stores. so, that's just going to continue. where going to continue the cleansing as we reposition the business. know how to to reposition. i tried to give you the example of l brands. and there are many others. repositioning is hard. but it has to be done. jonathan: talk about repositioning? let's talk about a change of business strategy. is oneu.k., there retailer that is not doing sales. it wants to offer consumer something -- it is certainty. fear of missing out. do we move to a world where we get rid of these ridiculous sales? we offer certainty.
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the consumer knows the price. they do not have to worry it is going to go up or down. do we move away from this hyperbole and these ridiculous sales? howard: that is how walmart destroy themselves. over 15 and bad management, they price later.are a can you imagine walmart not a price leader? alde eats their lunch. the target walmart prices are very close. vonnie: they should invest in becoming that again. howard: that is their whole business! the management has taken it and flushed it down the toilet bowl! so, if you want to be in a price position. alde. that is a price position. to -- price goes certainty. costco, price certainty.
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22%, low margins. 16%. that is price earned it. every -- that is price certainty every day. walmart blew this. tom: let's come back to this. really, some true challenges out there. we are going to do some top photos. vonnie: yes, our number three top fighter are migrants. are protester after being denied access into macedonia. macedonia says it will only grant access to persons fleeing and afghanistan due to conflict. all other markets will be sent back. tom: where is the migrants issue? i need an update. jonathan: we are divided. what happened in paris has made the conversation very difficult because we have to differentiate between is the economic migrants, the people that want to come to europe for a job and the refugees, the people that one of skipped war zones. lines, if they become
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blurred, we have a tragic situation where the refugees that need to get away from these places cannot because there is resistance. tom: jon, before you get your photo, we had a young norwegian girl at thanksgiving dinner yesterday. and she stopped the conversation by saying we are going to take in a lot of refugees. stopped the conversation. what of you got? jonathan: right here in the u.k., pictures of edinburgh, the final touches being put on the streets of lights. the festival will feature 16 arches that reach 60 feet high. it runs until christmas eve. i don't go to and edinburgh for the flight festival. we go for new year and for something different. tom: i will go for that, that is beautiful. vonnie: the detroit lions to come the thanksgiving bowl in their third straight win. they dominated with a 45-14 win.
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i think you are at a hockey game. tom: we were at a hockey game tonight's before. i watched a little bit of this. this is a great tradition. around dallaslock and whoever. vonnie: you do not need to because it goes on all day. food on thanksgiving. tom: football. lions win. moving forward, an important conversation. a strategist on bloomberg. this is important update. a cautious view on america. ♪
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serving toblerone chocolate in davos. the two year yield, i put that rectangle in a week ago, and jon ferro, we have broken right through. that is the new leg down. i have never seen anything like this in the textbooks. it is absolutely original to me. what does it mean when we are seeing longer duration negative yields like in switzerland? jonathan: i think that is the bigger point, because of the that isd, the two year, not just a reflection of severe risk aversion but a reflection of what is going to happen with the deposit rate of the ecb. currently -2%. could go to .3%. that is the consensus view. you see a push along the curve because the flatter you get at the front, people are chasing more yield and it is pulling the rest of the others down. vonnie: it is not just germany, either. france two years are down. tom: i would go farther other
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curve. -- out the curve about where we are in one, two or three years as institutions try to make real money. he said this will impinge on investment and take the incentive away for intelligent investment. jonathan: this is what the ecb wants. let's talk about the velocity of money. they want a hot potato. you do not sit on cash and you -- pass around the economy a lot quicker. the deposit rate is going to be so deeply negative because they do not want the banks cash there. they want the banks of funnel the money around the economy as fast as possible. tom: i do not buy the idea that that is a certitude that will help the economy. vonnie: i am not sure that anybody can say with confidence that it will but it is another tool. i think that is why they are talking about the two tier rate. tom: is it another tool, or is i
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t the only tool? jonathan: it is another tool. he can always extend q.e. when we talk about the deposit rate, we talk about credit look at how it has been used elsewhere in switzerland, denmark, sweden. the negative deposit rate is being used to affect the fx, to smash down individual currencies. the weaker euro, that's a negative rate there. tom: i sent got good news. i'm going to radio. and i will be joined later by jon ferro. and howard davidowitz. vonnie: tracy alloway and caroline veins from capital economics. tom: somebody knows who i'm talking to. theie: howard, jon, join in discussion. i want to wrap this up with black friday shopping and the consumer because we have been talking about economic data in europe. we have a consumer confidence rating that was high. consumer confidence is healthy in the u.s. as well.
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is it that consumers are not buy as much stuff in stores anymore? howard: i think that is a piece of it. i think millennials are different than they used to be. but i think this -- i think if you look at our economy, gas prices are 25% lower than they were last year at this time. 25%. we have more jobs. and the housing is good. vonnie: consumers are used to that gas dividend so they are not spending it anymore. howard: in spite of all these economic pluses, the consumer is 70% of the economy and we're going to get 2% growth. we are still in the tank. we've managed ourselves into the tank with all of this debt. jonathan: you mentioned the gasoline prices, $45 crude. now the u.s. is producing 10 million barrels a day. is it a net positive that crude is that 45 bucks a barrel? howard: i don't understand why
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the consumer is not spending more. but the bottom line is there's something fundamentally wrong with an economy that has double the debt and double the number of people in poverty. that's not my number. that is the government number. we have doubled the number of people in poverty over the last six years, doubled. and we have doubled the debt. i don't, and that's why we're in the tank. vonnie: before we let you go -- retailers? howard: i'm not going to listen but there will be for specialty chains at great risk. vonnie: thank you for joining us. coming up on monday, we are ofned by rb head -- rbs head macro research alberto gallo that starts at 10:00 a.m. in london. bloomberg is up next on television. bloomberg "surveillance" continues on ready. jon, you missed it but i do not have any of that paper in london
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have any of the thanksgiving day parade pictures. there was lots of fun for over. jonathan: nothing here. my thanksgiving parade happens next thursday, december 3. that is my life and that is tom keene's life as well. vonnie: do not give friday with the jobs report. newshan: a 48 hour conference thinks giving parade thursday and friday. vonnie: we might get the inclusion of the yuan. that would be interesting. next week is the week that would happen. jon, thank you so much. back with jon on monday and francine and the team in london. continue to watch bloomberg on television. ♪
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gets it right. we will talk to the ceo's of target and toys "r" us. will jobs growth and rising wages harold rebound in sales? we will talk to the head of the national retail foundation. on this black friday. welcome to bloomberg . i'm erik schatzker. stephanie ruhle is off today. is the day for many shoppers. perhaps you're watching us in line. i want to welcome shannon. theis live at one of world's busiest walmart since a caucus. good morning. here with me in our studios amely banjo of our new
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