halperin --rk vadon rodham halperin. and with all due respect to the new york times, if you are going to drop it, we're going to pick it up. on today's show, obama plays deal or no deal and we play .eopardy but first, the blame game. barack obama, hillary clinton, and many other immigrants of reacted to the planned parenthood shooting but for tighter gun control laws. takend parenthood has

its critics. most presidential candidates have been hesitant to say very much because very little information is known about the motives of the shooter. a appeared in court today for procedural hearing. the 20 topics of gun control and abortion. what will the effect be? john: on the face of it, this guy traveled to colorado, made a ofment, though in one sort deranged interview, about "baby suggesting a connection to the issue. democrats are obviously demagogy this issue. if it turns out there is a reason that this guy did this, there will be much more politicization audits. -- polymerization of it mark:.

thepossibility -- mark: possibility it will affect the gun-control debate, i think it is remote. it harder for republicans to speak in the vivid and strenuous terms they have on planned parenthood. marco rubio, has still not commented. there is a price to pay silence and democrats have criticized him. but it suggests how complicated the commingling of the seed of issues are. john: according to all public polling, planned parenthood is one of the most popular institutions in america. popularit is the most institution. this emboldened bold and democrats hillary clinton, and others, to side with planned parenthood. it will make it much harder and complicated for republicans, who thought they had a winning issue here, to exploit it. particularly if

you look at the biographies of the victims. john: including a cup. , donald trump celebrated his thanksgiving this year with a three-course meal of campaign flops. he was going to be endorsed by black pastors. many of those pastors just but they were coming to a meeting with the donald and had no intention of endorsing him and said so. now the entrée. trump has been doubling down on the controversial claims that he saw "thousands of muslims in new jersey celebrating after 9/11." today, he was asked to respond to garden state governor chris christie, one of his rivals, who like virtually every credible source, said those celebrations

never happened. mr. trump: he did not say that the other day. he was very weekly other day. i guess now he feels emboldened. he must be careful with what he says. we will see. >> they dug in the archives -- mr. trump: let's see what services. -- what surfaces. i got hundreds of calls and tweets of people who saw it. john: and finally the desert. trump defending himself from appearing to mock the disability covered himr who for years, claiming he did not know him, despite the fact that he covered him for years and were on a first name basis. our any or all of these current have a negative impact on trump, or will they be like all of the other previous flaps that had no effect? mark: i don't think these fall

into a different category. i do think the closer we get to iowa, he more he is in the news looking unpresidential, the more he looks like someone who is controversy rather than someone who can help the entry, that opens up the possibility to put a ceiling on his support and opens the door for someone who can coalesce the other -- the rest of the party. agree with you. none of these things, i do not think they will change the fervor, the intensity of the people who like him. but whether it was the else but hoping about carson or the way that he mocked of the reporter or did not or what ever he was doing, he looked clownish rather than strong. when he does those vaudeville antics, i don't think it helps him convey the image he wants to convey. , will he big question put paid television ads on the air? this guy could drop millions of

dollars on to pay television. if he does that, that will drive a lot of coverage. john: will anyone else put money ads in am on negative serious way? mark: ben carson took a trip over the weekend to jordan, where he visited a syrian refugee camp. talking to martha raddatz on nbc's "this week" on sunday, carson argued that the u.s. should put less emphasis on reset link refugees in america and more on helping jordan improve the refugee camps that already exist. we are hearing that they want to go to the united states. that is not what they want. they want to go back home. the united states and other

countries could be more supportive. they want to be repatriated into their own country. to be easier from a neighboring country or the united states of america? mark: carson has been fighting this perception he is not up to being commander-in-chief. how will this trip help him change the trajectory of that storyline? john: it helps a little bit and that i thought that his answers were relatively good. i think for people who think he his head, that will not change the perception dramatically, but he acquitted trip.f decently on this did more thanhe decently. the pictures were great. he looked like a president going overseas. i thought his answers were very good. far frome, they are

perfect, but there is no candidate who has given perfect foreign policy answers in this race. they executed a foreign policy trip and they did well. john: they may have stopped of these skid, and that's an important thing to do, but he has lost so much out to do, you may not gain it back again. be thee will never foreign policy candidate. we will see what they will do. i think it was smart of his campaign to put him in that position. [bell rings] the worldight, in dia, the new hampshire paper endorsed chris christie. he is making the most of it. today andaigning tomorrow. jerseyed the new governor "right for these dangerous times."

christie spent more time in the granite state than almost every other republican in the race. my question for you, christie is is itng a boomlet, but more? does it qualify as a boom? some candidates are looking at areas to potentially scrutinize him. i do believe that chris christie -- if you take a standing start, if you just say, here are the profiles of the four establishment candidates -- chris christie would be right in this. he is a hot candidate now. he is the kind of guy who can keep a hot streak up for more than a little while. john: looking at drug addiction, boy, there is that chris christie. he has that political talent. you look at the numbers. they are not moving much. mark: they don't need to move yet. to save -- i'm telling you, the guy could

steal the iowa caucuses as the establishment leader. and he is the best natural political athlete in the race. john: to make the argue it is a full-scale boom -- mark: it is headed toward boom. spend more time than anyone else in new hampshire to call it a boom. mark: it is beyond boomlet and headed toward boom. [bell rings] up next, what is next for president obama and the world at the paris climate talks. stay tuned for that. ♪

john: today in paris, president obama visited he memorial

outside the theater that was targeted by terrorists earlier this month. the city oft is in change. talk climate obama met with leaders from china and india, two of the world's top polluters. a climate deal this big has been tried before with no significant breakthroughs. will it be different this time? mark: there are the usual obstacles. the political divide in the united states -- the republican congress does not want to give the president anything he wants to implement a deal like this. the fact that the president had these two meetings today -- i feel like the world -- you saw the protest surrounding world on behalf of the deal -- i think the world is more ready for this the rid of a lot of the big players are. i think there's a good possibility that the united states and president obama and john kerry will lead to a pretty big deal. john: i 100% agree with that.

there is consensus now. you have these large polluters basically on board with this deal. there is still discussion about financial incentives and recompense for poor countries and what they would have to do to get their carbon emissions down, but it seems like on the basis of our reporting, our reporters who are over there, who cover this issue, they are confident a deal is going to get done. the question about whether that will make a dent in the carbon emissions, i think, is way down the line. i think we will walk out with something obama can say, this matters to me a lot. this is part of my legacy. i got something my presidents could not. mark: too often, president obama is accused of not doing anything because he cares about his legacy. i think on this issue, as far as i understand it, this is an issue on which he has talked more personally to more world leaders the most other issues and that makes a difference. [bell rings] deep dive.xt, the

what is going on in syria and what it means for the 2016 foreign policy primary. we will be right back. ♪

tonight, airst guest longtime advisor to republicans -- currently the advisor to speaker of the house paul ryan. he is also the founder of the foreign-policy initiative.

last time you supported mitt romney. who are you supporting in this race? not officially supporting anyone now. i have a bias toward marco rubio. i have informally advised him and his team over the years, but i'm not officially involved with any campaign. you have an evolving situation on the ground with isis, russia, putin, what goes on in terms of coming up with things for the candidates to say? ground troops, no-fly zone, how does that work? you are being asked to weigh in on what you would do now. the truth is, when you are actually in a position to do something is 14 or 15 months or now when the situation, if it continues on the current trajectory, will be dramatically different. they're a thing's that all of these candidates would do now when they are talking about it within some kind of range.

but i'm not sure many of them will be possible in january 2017. our candidates resistant when the staff says you will be asked about x, and they will say, that's too hypothetical? they have to have a stance about general principles without getting bogged down in specific spirit it is a fact, if we want our air operations to be more effective in syria against isis, we need some kind of ground presence. this does not mean deploying divisions of the u.s. military, presentskind of ground to coordinate those air operations. if we are going to be successful to thinksis, we need through what will replace isis. if we chase isis out of mosul or will be there? you can lay out those

principles, those objectives. the challenge is not getting bogged down into, exactly how many troops? what will your governing process look like? who would you engage? who would you include? you can go down a rabbit hole. you are not equipped. certainly for the intelligence to weigh in on. john: i'm thinking of paris. in issue comes along, becomes a big vivid point in the campaign. think back to 2012 when benghazi happen. that was a big moment. the reason it mattered, it provided a window on mitt romney, his character, his political instincts, etc. 30 you think, in terms of the havehat republicans reacted to this paris moment, have we gotten a snapshot that has been revealing, positive or negative? and jeb bushbio and have laid out strategies for

how they would do with the real threat. on the refugee crisis, which is a real issue. day, they arethe symptoms of the problem. the real problem is we have failed dates in iraq in syria. you have a border that has been erased. taken been completely over by isis. unless you deal with that, you have nothing. there is no policy. i think marco and jeb have laid out how they would deal with it. i think christie has a different approach. without getting bogged down in what he would do in every or syria, he has played the rudy giuliani of this race. the tough guy who will deal with the issues in the united states. somee been impressed with of the candidates. i do think they are laying out real ideas, a real governing agenda. accept that ben

carson has been hurt by this moment and his reaction to it? dan: yes. do i think that this will bring ben carson's numbers down to gravity over the long run, probably not. it's not helpful when his own advisors are going on the record that you are not up to speed on national security. that's not a good thing to happen. it eventually crashes numbers? i'm skeptical. i think as a very strong following. his following is very loyal. 700,000 donors. 400,000 people engaging on facebook. he has a real following. even if his numbers come down, i do not think they will evaporate because there are questions about his commander-in-chief credentials. mark: leslie trump and carson aside and talk about the four establishment candidates and crews. z, rubio, bush, christie,

and k-6. -- kasich. dan: each one has experienced that lends itself to being in charge in these issues. the senators, rubio and cruz, the senators are fluent on these issues. in the case of cruz, he sits on the armed services committee. rubio on another committee. they are getting briefings. mark: our people in iowa and new hampshire looking at that and sing, they are on the committee, that's impressive? the credential. it's the expertise. they are not saying marco rubio is the chairman of the western hemisphere senate foreign relations committee, therefore he is ready. but when you go look at his back theserth -- he is on

platforms where he has had to weigh in. you do get the impression that this is a guy in command of facts and knowledge. i think bush, christie, and john kasich have other advantages. more bush and christie than john kasich. they just have the executive in them.ness profile to at the end of the day, i think will have anz advantage over the governors. i think them demonstrating real expertise, marinating these issues for a wild, they have been in the middle of these foreign policy fights with president obama. they had to vote whether to send troops to syria. they had to take real responsibility. they had to vote on what to do with the intelligence and national security programs, the metadata program. a have a level of knowledge, discourse, and the credentials are less important than the experience that those credentials represents. mark: if hillary clinton got

elected and ask you to be national security advisor, would you do it? dan: wow. mark: yeah, you would. would you do it? you would do it because you are a patriot. but there's not that much tween what you believe in terms of specific policy decisions then you do. true or false? dan: false. health care reform -- the biggest entitlement established in modern times. every democratic president has tried and failed. the iran deal wasn't impressive feat. what the president achieved internationally and domestically -- getting the u.s. congress on board with it -- the implications for the middle east and america's role in the middle east will exist for a long time and hillary clinton was part of that process. nothas asked that she has

explained it away. she has not apologized for it. i want the next president to be unwinding this iran deal. john: let me follow the political logic of that question. listen to what you just said about why the senators have advantages. they have the expertise, they have fluency, they have confidence. she's got all that stuff. you can make substantive arguments against her, but any republicans has to do with the fact she has all of those qualities and projects them in spades. how can any republican match her on that front? that's thet think only criteria. i think of marco rubio or ted cruz wins the republican , they will have to defeat a stage of giants. these are very strong personalities. jeb bush, chris christie, donald trump. just go through that list. emerges as or rubio the last man standing, people

will look at them differently. and inll look large charge. the way obama looked after he defeated hillary. obama looked like a different person 2008. -- in 2008. i think ted cruz and rubio will be the same. plus the youth. the use will be an asset. you areu are young, large, you are in charge, and you are staying. dan is staying with us. when we come back, he will be our contestant on geo-pardy. a brand-new game you are going to love. after this word from our sponsors. ♪

>> this is geopardy! introducing today's contestant, a republican strategist from new york city, dan senor.

hosts, mark our halperin and john heilemann. mark: thanks, johnny. john: here are the categories. taken for granted, followed by huuuuge news. taken for granite. raab's caucus. the gipper.ally -- and finally, mitt. this is what will finally not trump from his front-runner status. dan: nothing between now and february. follow inat folks this race, what they have not come to grips with, this race will be is fragmented and fluid for the next couple of months as it is today and i do nothing much will change for trump or

anyone else before people start voting. we could be in a freeze mode until february 1, and then the race will take off like a rocket ship. highway newmp wins hampshire, is it possible that he just roles the nomination -- dan: absolutely. but i think the field will stay frozen and then there will be voting and i think voting will begin and i'm hoping, praying are shopping,at flirting with trump now, when being asked by pollsters, will not necessarily do so. mark: go back to the board. dan: the tip for $1000. pickingu are always $1000. reagan signed the montréal protocol which sought to do -- dan: something on the environment. john: i do not know the answer to this question. mark: we will get you the

answer. gipper for $500. john: this candidate embodies reagan the most? dan: i am biased, but i believe marco rubio. i think his theme of the new american century, his optimistic message to conservatives is the most reaganesque. i think if we had to a race of , actually, icruz think it will be very much like ford.eagan versus i think rubio does have that appeal. mark: the first time -- pick another one. dan: i'm going to go for the $10,000 bet. mark: this is what it will take to get mitt romney into the race. convention where there is total chaos at the

convention and paul ryan refuses invitationhe strong from various factions within the party to unify the party, be the nominee. mark: what about a romney-ryan i told you so ticket? dan: i love it. i like it. start asking for it now. mark: i have been. john: [indiscernible] zero. i talked to him about running for speaker. he said he would never do it. wins, none of the establishment candidates look strong of to stop it, couldn't romney get in? dan: of course. are thing before the convention question mark technically if he could meet the ballad of lines and all the rest, sure. i have a feeling he would not. mark: pick another one.

dan: raucous caucus for $1000. i'm going big again. mark: this establishment candidate has the best chance to be the top vote getter in iowa. dan: marco rubio or chris christie. mark: not jeb bush? don't think so. i often hear you guys say one of the challenges rubio has is he does not dominate one lane, which is a challenge now. also plays very well in many lanes in many states, and i -- he is very well-liked with many segments of the electorate and a place like iowa which has a very specific segment of the overall electorate, i think a guy like rubio, he still optimistic. the reaganesque appeal could be attractive. christie, assuming he gets momentum from this moment, i think he could also be an unlikely performer. do you think rubio has

another wave of scrutiny between now and iowa? dan: once you make it into that tear, it is scrutiny nonstop. it may not come from the candidates. it may just be the press. john: do you think jeff is dead jeb is dead? dan: wow. jeb is alive. john: i don't mean physically. he's not in the conversation right now. it's like he's not part of the discussion. i think the players are trump,e, cruz, rubio, carson. john: how do you come back? is december 1 and you're not part of the conversation? dan: it's very tough. i don't think any of these -- mark: undertaker is not one of

them. dan: rand paul, idol see a path back for rand paul at all. rand, i would be focusing on my senators. john: back to the board. for 500.yuge news john: donald trump's poll numbers will go in this direction after allegedly mocking the disability of a reporter. dan: it won't change. i don't think he will take a hit for this fight with the new york times. donald trump has a combination of celebrity and a willingness to say things about immigrants and about the media but no one else will say, and it touches the nerve for conservatives and i think they like that his voices out there, even though they may not ultimately vote for him. they like that he is saying these things. i don't think his numbers will change. mark: quick, take a taken for g

ranite. for granite for $1000. mark: this candidate is poised to win the new hampshire primary. dan: trump, christie, or rubio. dude.pick one, dan: rubio. mark: carly fiorina. what happened to her? dan: it's great to have these moments and debates. she capitalized on being trump's foil. she does not have much of an organization. we do not hear much from her. after the debates, the debate splash, and then she is nowhere. mark: she does not stand for any specific policy on anything. she dodges questions frequently and policy. dan: ok.

i think the ability to follow up on these big moments that you have in a debate is very difficult if you have no leverage. no capacity. john: dan senor -- dan: great game, guys. a box of risa roni in the green room. ce-a-roni in the green room. when we come back, the iowa caucuses under a microscope. ♪

mark: thanksgiving is over.

exactly two months or now, we will have the iowa caucuses. we will not bring out our today, butclock with a discussion on which candidate has the best phone banking and pizza ranging in iowa, it's time for the victory lap. sasha issenberg. ♪ so, iowa, ground game, does not take a lot of numbers. what you think? the candidates are looking at the trajectory, but they are counting individual votes. this is when they knock on the door, and list a supportive. they are moving toward what they numbers.r win what numbers to they need to get the results they want out of of iowa? when you break it down, when you look at it in terms of raw votes, you see how small this is

and how much, when we talk about staying,surging or what it means. this let's look at historically. 2008, 119,000 on the republican side. mike huckabee beat mitt romney by just over 10,000 votes. later, turnout is a little bit higher. romney, rick santorum, basically tied at 30,000 votes each. when you look at those numbers, what do you see? sasha: the conversations in these campaigns have been developing the projections of how many voters they turn out. you see a pretty steady constellation of voters who voted in 2008 and 2012. one of the questions this year is is there anyone who is going to expand the electorate through targeted contact? is it possible all of the attention we are seeing somewhat

through polling, through debate management is going to help. but this is more of an art than a science. how much good it grow. what do you need to win in the expanded electric? john: the premise of the rand paul campaign was he would wayge the electorate the obama did. that is now the trump approach. is there anything trump would need to do to change the makeup and the size of the electorate? big openis is a question, what it takes to mobilize a nonvoter or infrequent voter. caucus behavior is different behavior.ry on the republican side, you have to show up at a given time in a given location. john: it's cold outside. sasha: if you have a job outside or family activities -- mark: most people who vote go to

the polling place early morning, late at night. sasha: you can file a absentee for sixvoter early weeks before the general election. you need certain information. you also probably need to have been behaviorally conditioned to do it before. the things the obama campaign did in 2008 to mobilize people were highly personalized forms of interaction, usually with other people from their own communities -- mark: social media and face to face? media,social face-to-face, very old-fashioned. these are largely old electorates. even the older voters by and large are still getting through by phones and face-to-face contact. just assuming that because people are paying attention to this on tv they will go into the neighborhood precinct caucus, i think is wildly optimistic. the turnout, 50,000 --

my gut is a could go higher with the number of candidates. what does that mean in terms of the numbers a candidate needs to win? sasha: we did some polling. in terms of looking at it and just percentages, we looked at the raw vote in these two scenarios. when you look at the turnout we saw four years ago, we had trump at just over 30,000 votes, ted cruz, finishing second, placing second in that poll at just under 28,000. when you move it into a larger universe, you see trump's numbers get up to 37,500. this really ratifies the sense that i get from talking to folks on the campaign. you guys as well. people think it is possible to win the republican caucus in 24 thousand few as

votes. if anyone gets up to 30,000, i think they can be assured a victory. a lot of this will be up to fluctuations in the polls. we've seen this in the past. the polls fluctuate, but the campaign hard counts are relatively constant. counts for are the trump and cruz? sasha: i don't know. these things were you have to go out into the field require the ground game. that is one place where ted cruz is far more advantaged than trump is. so, the difference to the path to the nomination or not, 3000 votes -- that is less than the number of people go to a rally.- trump sasha: we are talking about

really small movements that will be incredibly determinative. of state of the art electoral science. greatf these have organizations. is cruz really just the class appeal? sasha: i think they are approaching this in the most diplomatic way. they're trying jerry getting the data they're trying targeting the various universes they can in iowa. i think they trump campaign, and to a lesser degree, carson's are so media centric or, in the case of carson's focused on contacting voters for fundraising, but not necessary , it's far lessm optimistic that these guys turn into caucus-goers. mark: is rubio trying to bring

them in? don't seesha: i evidence of it. i do not see rubio building a machinery. mark: it's amazing how few people will decide. thanks, saucer. 72-hour forecast and what it means for your morning commute. ♪

john: it is shaping him to be a busy week out there and election land, so let's go live to our 72-hour camping forecast where our chief political meteorologist out grow bridge is

keeping an eye on it. what are you tracking? i'm keeping my eye on a number of things. donald trump and ted cruz fighting to get on the ballot. and donald trump will be blowing through the old dominion on wednesday. mark: old dominion, eh? what else is he up to? of you who liked trump with your indoor tennis, he will be going to the atlantic club. and chris christie will be campaigning. hillary clinton, big day on thursday. rare moment when candidates leave iowa or new hampshire, but i gather there will be activity further south again? there will, in one special spot. washington, d.c., everything converging.

the major jewish presidential forum. we will see what happened thursday. mark, i've got to say -- mark: thanks, alex. cattle call. a big now we have a big callow call -- cattle call. the majorof republican candidates giving big speeches on foreign policy. this is a group, a lot of donors, some of whom are still undecided. a lot of people looking to see who has got the chops, particularly in this time where there is so much national security focus. who can give a big foreign-policy speech back to back to back. big event. can wrap their arms around the state of israel tightest and squeeze it closest with the most fervor. mark: who promises to personally to theu.s. moving truck

embassy in tel aviv and move it to jerusalem. there was a jerusalem and the republican party. in new hampshire, a lot of activity up there. most at stake?he too: at this point, not many establishment candidates dream about winning iowa. you've got to do well in iowa first. trump and carson and cruz are dominating iowa. people like bush and rubio and even chris christie think they can do well enough in iowa, springboard it to new hampshire. john kasich has to go from a standing start there. i think people like christie, people like rubio, doing well in iowa is super important. learni was shocked to when we asked our researchers,

christie has spent a lot of time there. he has spent a little less time than lindsey graham, who really is always in new hampshire. obviously does not have as much to show for it. for those candidates, new hampshire is not do or die. if you are john kasich right now, you have a lot to show for it. mark: all you have to do is get hot. if you get hot in the next couple of months, you can be the candidate. christie is hot right now. if he can have a couple moments in january, they are right on on in.. -- to usyou said thanks before. i will say thanks to alex again. we will be back after this. ♪

twice a are only two day at 5 p.m. and 8 p.m. eastern. we are alive 24/7 on bloombergpolitics.com. our site, you visit you can check out the latest campaign news on our campaign tracker. we have the latest from our colleague john mccormack. barack obama's slowly stepping up to back hillary clinton. thanks for watching. sayonara. ♪

emily: in emily chang and you are watching "bloomberg west." president obama and leaders from 140 countries

gathered in paris. he says the summit marks the turning point for action global warming. he also took the time for a brief sidebar with russian vladimir putin, urging him to ease tension with turkey following the shootdown of a russian jet. benjamin netanyahu and mahmoud abbas should cancel with the world watching. these talks between the two sides collapsed early last year. in the meantime, turkey has sent back the body of a pilot killed after the downing of that russian fighter jet. they say that they will not apologize. russianefiance of restrictions on the import of fruits and vegetables. and the man behind friday's shootout at a planned parenthood clinic