20 seconds away from the open. futures up a little bit higher. caroline hyde, how is your market open? caroline: central banks front and center. yesterday, manufacturing data in the united states sent a shiver down european investor's spines. is u.s. economy strong enough to sustain the first rate hike in a decade? today we seem more optimistic. we are getting over the manufacturing words. today, money just flowing into equities cautiously. the 100 up .1%. we are expecting the ecb tomorrow. will they add to the stimulus. 100% of the economists we spoke , we will see more stimulus coming from the ecb tomorrow. inflation data set to be poor later today.

2% target.ff the go here tog way to still more room for stimulus. this is why we are seeing the euro down against the dollar. 1.06. parityll reach below come next year. meanwhile, we have on the flipside the dollar creeping up. we are coming off of the highs. anticipation we'll see janet yellen add to raining back the stimulus. inwill see a rate hike come december. we get the first speech coming from janet yellen today. will she stick to her more hawkish tones? oil down by .1%. 44.99.trading it that is brent. that is as we anticipate the

vienna meeting. oil ministers gather to decide whether -- where they're going to put oil production. they decided if they would go for oil share rather than prices. let's have a look at some of the stocks to watch. i've got apple trading flat. you --ot ad court for accor for you. they are remaining up on the news. company. is a german it is about payments processing. looking rosy. many anticipating more earnings upgrades. we go up 6% on the upside, cash. by 25%.e scaling back

.t could hit their employees more than 300 conceit redundancy. ? caroline hyde, thank you very much. jonathan:p -- caroline hyde, thank you very much. ftse 100 up. juliette saly in hong kong. juliette: a choppy session in the region. we did have weakness coming through in korea, japan, australia and new zealand. australia gdp coming through. .9 of the 1% in the third quarter. still some weakness. we are watching carmakers in australia -- in japan. have a look at this rally we saw on the shanghai composite. up by 2.3% on the close. really strong gains coming through.

real estate stock today. there is speculation the government may take steps to boast home sales. -- two boost home sales. the convergence between the losses in japan and the gains in shanghai. seeing the regional benchmark index in and out of negative territory a times over the course of the trading day. we have seen that pollution in beijing start to fall from those levels we saw a couple of days ago. companies that make air purifiers that have been strong demand. as they so pollution starting to wane there was a bit of a switch out. a strong rally coming into the close of the shanghai share markets. jonathan: that is what is happening.

first up, druggies the lemma -- druggies dilemma. --ns desperate iran's volkswagen's first family breaks it silence over the emissions scandal as sales slump in the u.s. ♪ eurozone inflation data out at 10:00 u.k. time coming a day before action of the european central banks. , ramana kieser. -- the dataser coming in today. i go back to last year, that speaks for mario draghi. we get inflation back.

it failed. is it out of their hand? if they don't believe they can reach their 2% target for the next nine years. -- that is the key thing draghi is going to watch. it moved up quite a bit after he came up with the fairly dumbest statements. jonathan: that is the point. market expectations have picked up. that's the point, the market pricing here. he needs to follow. he has no choice tomorrow. ramin: also some kind of 12.5 basis points deposit rate cuts. that is what markets are pricing in. we think it will be a 10 basis point cut.

if that is the case, there will be some disappointment in the markets. long-term story is one of proven european growth. we are going to see the euro strengthened overtime. comee saying is going to down to parity. we don't think so. play ins going to be in european recovery. jonathan: what is the predominant driver? ramin: we don't think it is going to be driven by what draghi does. if you look at ppp models, it should be more than 20. the credit story, we see european credit growing and accelerating. in the u.s., we see the credit market coming to the end of its credit cycle. that second position and growth and improvement, that will be the primary driver.

to head out tot frank for. -- head out to frankfurt. the first question is we get this data point for the eurozone . is it going to play into any of the thinking? paul: not really. the reason is the ecb is looking at medium-term inflation. the concern here is even if you do get a cup inflation, it will be because the drop in energy prices of late last year. inflation is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.1%. as draghi said, core inflation is a good indicator of where headline inflation ends up. core is too low, we suggest more stimulus will be needed. not everyone agrees. that is what seems to be priced into the market. jonathan: paul, i am interested

in the debate of the ecb and if there is anyone there who thinks maybe it is not working. they said they would get inflation back to target as quickly as possible. it has not happened. is it outside of their control? paul: i would argue they do have control over inflation. this is key to the central banks credibility. the concern is if you keep pushing out the data once you hit your inflation target, you lose the credibility. your job becomes far harder. you lose altogether. that is an argument for more stimulus. to do more than what is needed, rather than less because the risks are more to the downside then to the upside. that is the kind of argument we expect to hear from draghi if more stimulus is to be announced tomorrow. jonathan: the resistance of the bullish bank used to shape

policy of ecb. it has not shipped policy at all and the last 12 months. as you go to the meeting, the prospect of more easing deeply negative rates, is there any resistance left tackle is it enough to shape policy -- left? is it enough to shape policy? paul: some governors in central europe and in the baltic states as well have spoken out against the need for more stimulus now. stops and find convincing. jonathan: thank you for joining us. -- ramine keys of nakisa. markets pricing in a fairly hefty -- initially disappointment but long-term,

european growth is going to continue improving. a grinding to see tighter. jonathan: we'll talk about the bond market in just a moment. stay with us. up next, what u.s. treasury secretary jack lew had to say with us. we look ahead to that key janet yellen speech later today. stocks here in europe up higher. the ftse 100 up 17 points. good morning. ♪

jonathan: good morning and welcome back to bloomberg tv. the ftse 100 and the green up by 17 points. a weaker euro this morning. 40 minutes in, it is time to get to bloomberg's top stories. iran is poised to take a big step. it attempts to have sections lifted. that as the international atomic energy agency is expected to publish a report into whether their nuclear program included a military dimension. facebook ceo mark zuckerberg and his wife have announced their plans to donate all of their $46 billion fortune to charity. this comes as the announcement of their birth -- of the birth

of their daughter max -- the dollar remains as the leading reserve currency, speaking exclusively to bloomberg today after the imf -- said washington will hold china to its commitment. >> we made clear that we thought it was important that china meets all of the standards to be recognized as a currency in the special drawing basket. they met those requirements. actions.ted the we had long discussions with china about their currency practices. they made commitments to us that they will not intervene in ways that are unfair. they are important commitments. toy know we will hold them those commitments. jonathan: janet yellen speaks. we will bring you coverage at 5:25 p.m. u.k. time. i want to bring in ramin nakisa. ist interests me is what

happening internationally. the manufacturing data locally, would it be a push to say that manufacturing is in a global recession? ramin: you're absolutely right. what is really positive is the services pmi is strong. we are seeing china move more into a service driven economy. globally, that is a way is world just that's the way the world is headed. i would buy books on the ipad, i don't have to go to shop for christmas. less stuff is required in this new economy. --athan: u.s. exports third it matters. manufacturing matters. are we sitting here and saying we don't expect any bleed across from manufacturing? ramin: what worries me

more is the credit story. i think that is more of a worry. the pmi services is the positive side. causet think is going to problems that we are good to see. more --credit is a much much more important story. jonathan: let's talk sovereign debt. euro-dollar and anticipate the spread between u.s. yields and european and german yields to keep on whitening. ubs has taken the other side of the trade. why? bund deals will start rising. 50 basis points for a 10 year bond is inappropriate. if you look at what is happening in fed hiking cycles, the tenure states six.

we are expecting we like to buy treasuries and sell balloons. that is a massive spread at the moment. jonathan: that is a massive call if you're looking at the bund curve. swiss 15 year and says we are about to go negative. the ecb is going to test is going the same way. why can't the bund curve start to look like the swiss curve echo -- curve? co. -- ramin: we expect a splattered story because inflation expectations are anchored very low in the u.s. the long end of the curve will not rise hugely. jonathan: let's take the box of the fx guide. we know what happened in the spring and janet yellen spoke. when she speaks later when she

sits there and delivers that speech, do you anticipate a ?lavor of what is to come ramin: the reaction will be very interesting. it will be a little rehearsed with what happens with the fed hike. and it just to see the euro-dollar reaction in the equity market reaction. jonathan: ramin nakisa, we have done bonds and stocks. now we are going to do commodities. iran's having sections lifted. programcountries include a military dimension? we will debate, that is next. ♪

jonathan: good morning. i am jonathan ferro joining you from the city of london. the ftse 100 in the green. iran and focus, voice to take a big step focus. poised to take a big step today. iran nuclear program included a military dimension. bloombergs middle east editor elliott goeken joins us now. iaea, whatwith the the anticipate that's what do you anticipate? -- what do you anticipate? elliott co. that is absolutely

right. allowing them to enter facilities pretty much unfettered in iran. that was the key demand from world powers. content of this report which we are hoping for later is not so important in terms of where the sections are on lifted. they will be scrutinized by the iranians. it will allow them to say we told you we were right. iranians would love for the report to say there was a military dimension or leave it a little bit muddied. it long accused iaea inspectors of being stooges of foreign intelligence agencies. we will be looking for some kind of smoking gun, evidence to make them feel vindicated that these sanctions on iran were justified because iran did have some sort

of military dimension to it. they are either going to be both happy or unhappy. it is not going to be black or white. john: -- jonathan: elliott gawking breaking it down for us. still with us, ramin nakisa. ramin, this late into the prospective more crude coming online. if we have a crystal ball function on the bloomberg terminal, the one contract you would want to go for 2016 would be the price of brent, wouldn't it? no one knows what is good to happen next year. it is the most important variable to all of the asset classes. ramin: if you're talking about the e.m. story, that is key. driven by the price of oil. the correlation is very high. many asset classes will be affected by this.

on thecan agree direction of oil. people are taking bets on it going up or down. can't forecast it. we did not forecast the fall. we saw a difficult variable to forecast. because it is politically driven. jonathan: let us use the curve. is our bestthat case scenario. 60 dollars all the way out for 2022. if that holds true, where is the the biggestin: trouble is the u.s. high-yield market. liquidity, we are seeing too much binging on credit by single big companies. we think this could be the end of the u.s. credit cycle. once the fed starts to hike, that could be another trigger for an increase in the default rate. the problem is able have what

you was credit particularly mutual funds. we start to see a big outflow, that is when they have to sell the liquid assets and that will be equity. that will not be high-yield because there is no secondary market. risk event after risk event for the next two or three weeks. do take a long holiday? what is your strategy? ram in we would be -- ramin: we would be neutral. cautious going into it. look at the aftermath. we think the places to look for value are the places where the credit and close desk credit impulse, low inflation. balloons -- sell balloons. finding one of the biggest diamonds and canadian history.

talking about the future of his history. run us, that is next. ♪ -- join us, that is next. ♪

jonathan: good morning. welcome back to "on the move." i am jonathan ferro here in the city of london. let's get you up to speed to what stocks are trading this morning. the ftse 100 in the green. we traded 26 points higher. the dax higher by .6%. the stoxx 600 at this point heading toward a third week of gains. switch up the boards. we will whip up through the fx market. 1.068.o trading at the dollar index is pushing higher, retreated from that 2015 hike yesterday as brent crude,

$44 a barrel. ahead of that opec decision on friday. let's get to individual stock stories with caroline hyde. caroline: it is all in the name, green king is in the green. we're talking hubs. -- profitspumps surge with the acquisition of the spirit pub. adding total revenue up 50%. pretax profit up. dig into the polite sales. they look pretty strong. up 2%. cost synergies are going to be better than expected. talkingd, we are payment processing up 4%. the reason is once again it looks as though the earnings forecast is looking prettily -- looking pretty stellar. many analysts saying we get to

have more upgrades to come. they delivered several in 2015. you're looking at de la rue, cash is over. it is all about card transactions. sage group down by 4%. it's a software maker, posted an uptick in its overall sales. not as much as been estimated. fully organic sales up 7%. the earnings-per-share are below the company's own estimates. back to you. jonathan: caroline hyde, thank you very much. caroline might be interested in, diamonds. we can reveal that one of the largest ever diamonds found in canada has been named as the foxfire. it is 2 billion years old. for more on this, let's welcome jean-marc lieberherr. great to have you with us. the name of the diamond, 2

billion years old. remarkable. that dimon is likely to fit on any ring. how is this going to be cut? guess it: it is to be is 2 billion years old. it was found in northwest territories in canada and a mine desk is to kill monitors to columbus south -- two kilometers south. getting it to the world. how it is going to be cut. 50is going to be cut character. a lucky canadian later is going to end up with -- and lucky canadian lady is good into wearing it. maybe on a necklace. if he was setting

economy, we will be talking about i'll -- about oil. talk to me about the business and how that has developed. a fuse ago, rio tinto was wondering whether to stay in diamonds are not. we left in 2013 to stay in the diamond is this. we believe the fundamentals are strong. -- revenues have been growing at the bottom line has been growing. today we've got two mines and operation. generating free cash flow. another operation in australia imagine toou can't more contrasting environments --

--gine two more environments two more contrasting environments. jonathan: when you speak to the guys in the end of the pipeline from rush -- from rough to polish, they are having a rough time. what do you think is happening? jean-marc: it has been tough for the industry. they have been painful, -- that is ar the cousin of the pipeline getting congested. 2014, there has been a rate of growth, largely built by the -- the distribution buildup starting slowing down. consumer demand starting to slow down in china. the u.s. remained very robust.

the amount of rough diamonds that went into the pipeline just cap going -- just kept going. created a congested pipeline. at the same time, there was an element of disconnect between the world prices and the polished prices. jonathan: the other story was the pipeline is congested because the demand is not there. the price at the other end is too expensive and they can't weigh the polished diamonds. do you not subscribe to that story? trutharc: there is some's to that story. rough prices have been disconnected. as long as prices go up, it is fine. it takes months to go from the rough price to the polished price.

whenever they goes up, that is sustainable. up, thater things go is sustainable. jonathan: does it need to happen at the rough price? you, as the number three producer, do you have a responsibility to trainees and look -- those constraints? jean-marc: i cannot talk about our pricing cosi. pricing a need -- our practice. it will continue, it is very healthy. as far as the pipeline inventory, the polish pipeline is a little bit overloaded. -- the polished pipeline is a little bit overloaded. the trade works in about two months. around the middle of next year, -- we believe things

will come back to normal. mining companies are good to be pointing to that pipeline during that time. anything indicates the mining companies are going to be adjusting their output to the reality of the demand on the other side. jonathan: the reality is there is not much demand there. this seems to be a problem, particularly in china. what is the story? life is it -- why isn't it as robust? jean-marc: you got to look at the u.s. market. -- please start with the u.s. then. that growth remains. that is very important. that is the cornerstone of the diamond business. china's business went through growth for five or six years. a lot of it was driven by

distribution lots of store. as well as the middle class accessing more wealth. the luxury goods industry was going very strong in china. jonathan: until recently. jean-marc: what we're seeing recently is two things. one is the pipeline buildup stopping. there is a time when you've got dostop. that has nothing to with consumer demand on the other side. as far as consumer demand, the higher end has been impacted like what you know in terms of anticorruption. that has impacted the high-end of the market. what we have seen on the lower end of the market is actually growth in number of transactions. we have seen a broader population by accessing diamonds. the fashion jewelry market has value,d in china but in

it has come down. jonathan: that is the point. the lower price point. i want to wrap this up. we go back to the beginning of the composition, the strength between rough diamonds and polished diamonds, you cannot have an in sheet with the price of the polished diamond is less than the price of the rough diamond. the number three player has to bid for number one. is it an industry problem as far as you are concerned? -- we are going through an adjustment period, where we are becoming like a normal industry. you can think of it as a coming-of-age. ago, theor 15 years industry was a monopoly. it has become much more mature and demand-driven. the industry is going through teenage age. the mining companies have to realize there are no more --

they are no more that the father figure they used to be. we have to be a lot more mature. that is what is happening now. we welcome it. this is starting to become a lot more like a normal business. i welcome that. jean-marc leave bear, --jean-marc lieberherr hair up next, volkswagen's billionaires owners -- billionaire owners break their silence. ♪

jonathan: good morning and welcome back to bloomberg tv. good morning to a very wintry city of london. stocks are high. the ftse 100 up 20 points. 44 minutes past the hour. your bloomberg's top stories. iran is poised to take a big top in a desk and an attempt have its sanctions lifted. it is expected to publish a report on iran's nuclear past. citigroup plans to leave its bonus plan unchanged. that would see the third biggest --. bank saying jpmorgan australian gdp has decent expectations. growth was driven by the fastest

gain in exports since 2000. it forces the central banks decision to keep rates steady for now. in other news, the owners of a volkswagen is addressing -- the owners of volkswagen are addressing employees. it is the first time he has spoken since the carmaker has admitted to the scandal. shares fell lower this morning. hans nichols our reporter in berlin. we heard from the ceo. let's start with him. the: he talked about long-term effects of the scandal. he talked into his -- he talked about it in two parts. cleaning this up is going to take about a year. in terms of how long it will take them to regain consumer loyalty, that is good to take several years. he gave an update on when they

are going to have their new strategy. 2025. . how we got is an indication badly volkswagen is doing. this is not due to the brand decline. this is an inventory question. they don't have diesels for sale anymore. the individualt brand, you see audi up ever so slightly. porsche down a little bit. much intot read too it. sales are still plugging along. volkswagen down 27.7%. for the month of november, sales were up 1.5%. let's dig into some of the volkswagen brand. you've got the poseidon, down 60%. down 64%.- the golf he will be addressing workers there. he has been invited.

we will see if there is any update on potential job losses. what their strategy is. really important nuance you mentioned. that is the story with volkswagen. here's the most read story. it is about mark zuckerberg and his wife. they have announced they will give away all of their 47 billion dollars and facebook shares. the couple still in their early 30's. depressing for everyone else. all of their money goes to a great cause. openledge announced and an letter to the daughter. caroline hyde has the details. what did it say? did it redefine the 1%? ofoline: it is a clever way giving money to charity. some key takeaways.

we have seen it for a century or so, rockefeller. you got warren buffett, bill gates. have givenss tycoons a money to good causes. $45 billion. that is 99 percent of their current shareholdings is worth. -- that is 99% of their current shareholdings worth. tiered you got a 31-year-old pledging away most of his wealth away -- pledging most of his wealth away. this is an age element. human potential promoting equality. this is a limited liability company they formed by zuckerberg and his wife. what does that mean? they give way to causes, they can do full profit investing. zuckerberg's

signing up to bill gates energy funds. he says all the profit will be invested. by aism can be made limited liability company. sean parker one of the first investors has been calling the -- clearlyhe hatter this is a new way of giving. it is a sheer scale of giving. make sure that mark zuckerberg still has overall control of the stock that he gives. this is a man who in the letter says this iser what he wants overall. he is going to remain chief executive many years. themselves put out a statement separate to that of mark zuckerberg saying there

will be $1 billion per year given for the first three years. overall, he keeps voting control of the company he founded and made him such a fortune. back to you. jonathan: i'm sure the daughter will be happy. really redefining philanthropy. you don't have to wait until you retire. acta the markets shortly. the ftse 100 up by 20 points. countdown to the ecb and the fed watches as well. what to look for when janet yellen speaks later today. ♪

jonathan: good morning. welcome back to "on the move." attention shifts from london to d.c. 5:25 p.m. london time. the economic club of washington, do not miss that speech. janet yellen ahead of that crucial fed meeting just a couple of weeks away. that is your day ahead. a lot of data points. bloomberg first were strategist richard jones, manus cranny of a bloomberg tv. great to have you with us. if it was a time to deliver a speech with a dollar around 100 on the dollar index, why wait two weeks? richard: i would be surprised if she deviates from the line that

she has taken since the last rate decision. i think the dollar probably will not feature to strongly in what she says today. i think they are determined to go into weeks time, and it will be a healthy debate, but i don't think it will ship courses. jonathan: the data coming out of your later today. an hour away from that inflation data, you get a sense from market dispensed that whatever happens with a data point, it doesn't play in to what the ecb may or may not due tomorrow. manus: the ecb has set the .enchmark so high mario draghi has boxed himself in to a high level of expectation. the amount of bonds that have been bought. german inflation is barely rising by .3%. how does q e-work? ?re we waiting magic

there is a great story that caught my eye. treasury curve. in yellen we trust. the extra premium you want to hold 10 year government bonds versus two-year government notes. it is going to be one of the most dovish tidings it -- tidings. her objective is not to quell our views about a rate hike. wouldn't it be good to see a rate hike? what, -- jonathan: we got richard jones here. we got the blue curve up for us as well. .- i got the bund curve up i'm not pricing and inflation, that successive qe is going to be when bund sells off.

richard jones, what does that chart look like? i don't think is going to look out -- i don't think it is going to look a lot different. they are struggling to get any traction on the upside of inflation. they are going to act aggressively. there is a lot of work to do. jonathan: janet yellen a little bit later, what is coming up in the program? manus: we're going to talk -- we're going to talk about where we are with an inflation expert. polluting the entire newsroom with the swiss yield curve. david lee joins us. there is a vote going on in the house of commons today. it is on britain's position in regards to syria. that will be important. how many defections there are. jonathan: thank you very much.

a busy day ahead. at least i'm not the only one getting excited i a swiss curve. stocks in the green. from me and the bloomberg team, best of luck for the rest of your day. ♪

asncine: a draghi surprise the ecb prepares to ramp up stimulus. manus: fed on edge. charles evans says a december left off makes him nervous. we will hear from janet yellen later today. francine: and the u.k. debate on syria. parliament votes on david cameron's call for extending airstrikes against islamic state. live from bloomberg's european headquarters in london, i'm francine lacqua. manus: