david: good afternoon. here's what we're watching this hour to we are moments away from the fed off his latest read on the economy. today, get yellen said she was confident about the strength of the labor market. a donedecember lift off deal? exxon's tobacco problem. comparedompanies being to big tobacco. the latest campaign to take down big tobacco. in talks to sell its main internet business. what could a sale mean for ceo marissa mayer? a snapshot of regional economic conditions is out. i want to go to mike mckee with the headlines. the color, what do we know thus far? mike: it is reasonably vague. janet yellen just finished speaking and said the fed is ready to raise rates.

the economy right now described as improving on a modest asus, a description they have used for quite some time. they know the robust sales of autos helped by low gasoline prices. they talk about manufacturing being mixed, held back by the dollar and week exports. know manufacturers expect improvement in the coming months. that was what janet yellen was delivering today. broadly supportive of the idea the fed can move. david: an uptick in temple warner -- temp workers. we will look at market reaction so much as there is one right now. julie: stocks have fallen to the lows of the section. not necessarily seeing much reaction as of yet. it is interesting we have seen stocks turn lower more decidedly after janet yellen spoke speaking about an hour and a half ago, finishing up a half

hour ago. she did not deviate significantly at all from what we know already. she did serve to emphasize some .egree that was not necessarily news to anyone. let's take a look at what is going on to take a look at a snapshot of the movements here. when sheund here is began speaking. stocks began to bounce around ahead of that. she stopped speaking actually is when stocks have made the lows. what i'm talking about, in the wake of her comments. here you have the fed funds futures probability. likelihood of being priced into the fed funds futures, it is holding steady pretty much at 74%. theres where it has been now. if there is any

change in the wake of beige book. it seems not likely. treasuries, we have been seeing beforeck in yield since yellen began speaking. you look at 2.19%, higher than it was since she began speaking. you look at the two-year which reacts more to the interest rate expectation, it is holding steady at 0.9%. the movement upward. haver the dollar, which we been closely watching, we have seen a bit of the downturn, curiously, in the wake of her commentary. david: thank you so much. let's get a check on the first word news. mark crumpton has more. mark: david cameron is urging parliament to approve air strikes against the islamic state lawmakers are expected to authorize the authorities. comeuld spend 10 hours

with voting taking place afterward. the hard work is up to lower-level delegates still attending the climate conference. one latin american, told bloomberg there is a disconnect on what is happening in negotiations with differences have to be worked out by december 11. floods have stranded tens of thousands of people. military teens are conducting rescues and evacuations. the monsoon rains are heaviest in decades. the democratic presidential front-runner a knowledge is she received a lot of money from wall street over the years. in an interview with charlie rose, she insisted donors were not buying influence. >> i have stood for a lot of regulation. and nonfinancial service sector here i represented new york and represented everybody from the dairy farmers, you know everybody.

know people and did i help rebuild after 9/11, yes i did. but that has nothing to do with my position. anyone who think they can influence me on that ground does not know me well. she also defended meetings with corporate executives when she was secretary of state, saying the goal is to secure more jobs for americans. you can get more on these and other breaking stories 24 hours a day at the new bloomberg.com. back to you. back. let's turn mike mckee is here. westernom layoffs wisconsin, what have you picked out here interesting to you? mike: labor markets have continued to tighten modestly, they say, during the time that would include the november payrolls report. there are wage pressures out

there, but only skilled jobs. these are things we have heard before from corporate officials. they say much of the hiring comes from temporary agencies. they are looking for workers, often a precursor to additional hiring. is can see if that significant in the sales report. buying a lot of cars. still week. -- weak. the are being held back by strong dollar and weaken growth overseas. there is improvement there. an interesting line comes from this beige book that i had not seen before that may get picked up on by lawmakers. they report", but escalating health-care insurance premiums, republicans who do not like obamacare may be poised to ask her tomorrow about that and the impact on growth, whether that is holding back hiring or additional wages. david: you mentioned she will

appear before the joint congressional committee tomorrow. she spoke before the washington economic -- of washington. nontraditional a form where one will talk about monitoring policies specifically. what did she have to say today? mike: we have a strong enough economy in terms of creation, and a strong enough economy or we could get faster inflation for oil prices and the dollar. int of those things are 2015. she worries if the fed waits too long, we could see market disruptions. was all but a guarantee that unless something happens between now and the 16th of december, they will raise rates. wonder whatne will happens with the jobs number.

what could derail it? what could a bad number look like to the fed? mike: it would have to be a bad number. significantly revised. it would have to be something below 100,000 even for them to consider taking this off the table. perhaps the employment rate rises for that reason because fewer people get hired. even a flat reading probably would not mean a whole lot to them at this point. david: just noting something julie was looking at. a 74% chance of probability there. yes, friday, that will probably go up significantly if we get a reasonably strong print. people will say yes, this will definitely happen. it will never get to 100% because of the way this was constructed. the fed convinced the markets at

this point a rate increase is coming. they got what they wanted and now they have to keep them there for the next few days. republicans on the committee have advocated for more supervision. that is what they will be focused on p or what does janet yellen have to do for that committee? mike: she will have to lay out the case. the fed needs to stem -- stimulate egyptian opera -- additional job growth. pushing back against legislation that would force the fed to use monetary policy rules to decide whether interest rates should go up or down. also a provision that would allow the general accounting office to audit and decide and go back to review monitor policy decisions and decide whether or not they are right. unacceptable political pressure making a process. comingfocusing on tomorrow.

mike: he pretty much guarantee the markets this will happen. how much additional bond buying will they do? that will be constrained. changes ino be procedures. right now, it is a -20 basis white. right now, they lose money, trying to get them to take it out of the banks. david: thank you for joining us to talk about jenny ellen's testimony tomorrow. keepg up, keep -- traders -- citigroup following jpmorgan keeping its bonus full flat this year amid the pressure on european rivals. is it enough to retain talent?

the most rival oil company is being compared to big tobacco. the latest campaign to take town big oil. -- take down big oil. ♪

david: welcome back. a look at the business stories in news right now. two employees were on the doomed oil rig killing 11 men and -- ing off the largest u.s. history. also pleaded guilty for violating the clean water act. concerns were raised as far back

as 2012. launched, the fda plans to distribute without fda cleat -- clearance. it came under fire about questions in the accuracy of the test results. turner sportsnd are investigating $15 million in the new multimedia company uninterrupted. attract more partners. the company also has to deal with facebook. more business get news at bloomberg.com. let's head back to the markets desk. let it start with railroads. credit suisse global industrial conference, which executives for companies,ortation are speaking to one of them. csx says the earnings-per-share growth will be at about 3%. midst --ower than the

mid single-digit growth. a slowdown in the domestic coal. this has been an issue dogging these types of companies to become a says domestic coal movements will be down more than expected in the fourth quarter. moving 30 million tons of exported coal for the full year. others are also falling. making similar comments saying the december volume will follow the pattern and because of that, fourth-quarter numbers will miss the utility of forecasts it had given by one million to 2 million tons. one of the reactions to the warmer than seasonal weather for this time of year has been that there is less demand for not only things like natural gas but coal as well. you are seeing a lot of the railroads today. on the flipside, airline stocks are hired today, being led higher in part i dealt up.

the company coming out with its november passenger revenue. for the firsttive time since november of last year. first monthly numbers released since the terrorist attacks in paris. about how thatn would affect the industry. we have seen some gains, particularly for spirit, which has underperformed this year. and we have seen positive analyst reaction. david: mileage? i'm sorry a put you on the spot there. .hank you so much that is julie hyman at the market desk. the u.s. dollar closing on its longest winning streak since march. the index down more than 9% as traders keep piling in.

strategists are starting to sound alarm bells. well,he dollar doing so why are they sounding the alarm? >> i think that is it. the dollar has been sounded. before it starts to reverse. pilingseeing hedge funds in and there is a concern that might make the trade overcrowded and ripe for reversal. i imagine page book is looming large. several have been alert to the fact it has been strong and weighing in on manufacturing. yellen speaking this afternoon was emphasizing they still plan to go and provided the conditions are right. she thinks they are. adding a note of caution, he

seems to think things are in track as well. that could perhaps slow the pace of rate increases. quote we do have that from him. when you read the commentary when you're talking to currency traders, what are they saying about the degree to which it could weaken? a very bearish outlook on the dollar for next year, they see it going down to 120 and the euro will rebound from there. a little more circumspect, they see a correction down 130. it moves up higher. at the moment, there is a real discrepancy in the forecast. some for care -- some forecasters are looking at 95 for the euro and others at 120. the question is which side will be right? there is not a clear line that people are going around. you look at the history

of rate rises. what effect does that has? >> common sense would tell you it will continue to rise after here at high rates. history shows that has not actually been the case. rate hikingthree cycles, we have seen the dollar weakened after the first rate increase. ofre seems to be a sense sell the facts going into this. we could see a bit of a weakening coming out if the fed does indeed indicated will be quite dovish in rate hikes. david: thank you, rachel evans. still ahead, wall street starts to sweeten the deal for employees as banks say they are not just competing with each other, but with silicon valley. details are coming up next. ♪

♪ david: welcome back. citigroup is the latest to announce -- jpmorgan said earlier this week it would keep markets unchanged from a year ago. other firms are considering cutting -- offer -- joining us now to discuss is david, who covers big banks for us. on what jpmorgan said, setting the standard for the season, what is happening here with citigroup?

>> with bonuses, we were out first, keeping them flat. citigroup will now do the same. there is a bit of a strategy to this. be one of the first banks. they are not officially announcing, but we are getting news on them and they are saying bonuses are flat. everybody after them has to at least match the flat bonuses. they do not want to be down two percent or 3%. the employees will look across the street and say, i should go to jp me -- jpmorgan and citigroup. david: they want to keep talent there. i mentioned the european banks and we can safely bet they will not be flat. >> that is for sure. deutsche bank bank, credit suisse, barclays, they all have new ceo's. some of them have said they will slash bonuses. i think something like 60%, the pool will become this year. u.s. banks are looking much better than european banks.

this pay season. flat. people might not get too excited about that, but it could be worse. at how itn you look all shakes out, the pool will be flat. how does this end up trickling flat? it does not determine your bonus will be the same. >> that is correct. this is essentially the big coal, billions of dollars. that gets divvied up among different businesses and trading desks. in the coming weeks, those decisions and negotiations will happen. senior managers were told this week about it, what their chunk of the pie will be and they have to decide on their team who gets it. there will be opportunity for trading desk heads to say, we have had a good year and you percent. allotted us x bump it up because i have got to take care of my guys. banks, disheuropean

-- david: european banks. it is remit -- rumored to be large. >> the banks are really worried about young employees, those who have only been in the bank for a few years or who are coming out orprestigious mba programs really good undergraduate programs. there, the competition is really strong. young folks who are not looking to work 100 hours on wall street like they used to be. banks are looking to do different things to attract them. david: credit suisse announced yesterday they would expand, early this year, they said they would foot the bill for an employee. is it largely related to that balance train work and personal life? >> it is and i spoke to one of the benefit managers the other day for that story. she put it in those terms.

banks are looking at silicon valley p other firms are offering more attractive benefits packages and trying to match. nowit squeeze had 22 weeks for a primary caregiver, new. they are the best of any top investment banks in the world. better than some of the big tech firms. facebook has 16 weeks pay leave and google has 18 weeks. credit squeeze all the sudden is ahead of the pack. wall street is looking better. david: thank you very much, joining us to talk bank bonuses. thel ahead, big oil like tobacco? that is coming up next. ♪

♪ from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, this

is bloomberg markets. let's start with the headlines. mark crumpton has more from the news desk. mark: federal reserve chair janet yellen's lame and groundwork for december interest rate hike. in ac's today before the economic club of washington, chair yellen said she is increasingly confident the u.s. economy is growing enough to achieve a better labor market and higher inflation. she warned that keeping policy too easy or too long creates risks. >> to delay the start of policy normalization for too long, we would likely end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting most of our goals. such an abrupt tightening would risk disrupting financial perhaps even inadvertently push the economy into a recession. moreover, holding the federal funds rate at it trying level for too long could also

encourage excessive risk-taking and thus undermine financial stability. federal open market committee meets later this month and is widely to -- widely expected to raise interest rates . french police have raided a mosque about 20 miles east of paris. seized in nine millimeters revolver, computer disk, and jihadist propaganda. it is the third mosque shut down in france since last night's -- last month's's attacks. nine others were put under house arrest -- house arrest and 22 on -- and from france. to close obama wants guantanamo bay but does not want to break the bank to do it. to revisee pentagon its plan for shutting gitmo and inlding a replacement here the united states. above half $1 billion to 107 prisoners are now being held in that location in cuba. the former national security

advisor sandy berger who helped update clinton's foreign policy and later got a trouble for storing classified documents is dead. president obama called him one of the nation's for most national security leaders and credited him with strengthening american leadership in an uncertain world. he was 70 years old. get more on these and other breaking stories 24 hours a day at the new bloomberg.com. i am mark crumpton. david, back to you. david: commodity markets are closing in new york. starting with agriculture, u.s. shipments of soybeans and other products fall, the lowest in a decade because of vomiting commodity prices and a stronger dollar, reducing the competitiveness of the country's exports. barrel, past $40 per past the opec meeting in indiana. it has slumped 40% since a year ago to maintain output and

defend market share. investment from the fossil fuel industry has stopped 3.4 tree dollars. that is the climate change movement as leaders meet in paris to hand out a deal that would curb global warming. efforts to challenge the reputation of companies like exxon mobil. covers me now, alex who it for us. being reappropriated. a concerted effort here to draw the parallel and say the oil industry is not unlike big tobacco was a decade ago? >> that is the idea behind the campaign and the climate campaign in general are it we hear numbers like 3.4 trillion dollars, it is hard to know exactly what it means. that is what these investors control overall and not what they had or might keep out of oil or coal. matternse, it does not too much because the campaign is about undercutting the political standing of these companies. they are going after political

capital and not financial. exxonof the criticism of really speaks to that there they are trying to get policies passed and undercut the clout of the companies. brought about this moment in particular? he is talking to bill, who had one of the organization's sort of pushing for this and was just struck talking to him about how much more mighty the organization has grown since the last time i talked to him three or four years ago. his paris what is causing the moment to happen? campaigns a years long by investmentactivists to try and again undercut the standing of the fossil fuel industry. paris is certainly shining a spotlight on it. you have in the past few months, reporting by some outlets suggesting exxon had done research for years, showing they knew their emissions contributed to global warming and was a problem, still they funded to

out side groups that played to uncertainties. the attorney general open an investigation to that. we will see were that goes. it is all rolling together to a strong assault against the industries. we noticed columbia university, one of the institutions leading that effort, exxon mobil wrote a letter to the administration saying, we give money to your institution. schneiderman. earlier seeing movement on the political side of things as well. we were talking to john and i know there were letters to him to look into exxon history. we are seeing things moving there. >> right. early stages. exxon says we have always been open about the research that showed there might be some concern here and the research that showed all the science was not settled yet. be a smoking gun in terms of documents, who knows? in a sense, it does not really

matter. i think advocates are just happy to have us talking about whether big oil is the next eight tobacco. sort of makes their argument for them. david: what are we seeing the oil industry doing? on?they tackling this head are they realizing this might be an image problem for them? >> they are going after some of these stories and challenging the credibility of them. they say again they have not hidden anything but they are also changing tact is and strategies. moreil is investing a lot in natural gas, seen as a more viable and less polluting fuel. they are trying to argue they should be part of the long-term solution for energy needs and not just shoved aside by the climate david: debate. david:david: the advertisements seems to betv that the way. we will go to mark renton and the news desk for more. mark: we are receiving reports out of california of an active

shooter. the run confirmed reports of 20 victims in this shooting. according to the police department and the county sheriff department, they put out tweets that say and active shooter is near orange show road and waterman avenue. these are unconfirmed reports of at least 20 victims in this shooting. we will continue to follow the story and bring you more developments as soon as we get them. market day continues in a moment. ♪

david: welcome back. it is time for the bloomberg business flash. a look at business stories in the news right now. shoppers spent more than $3 it the online, making

biggest ever. shopping by phone, laptop, were tablet, just 21%. luster asme of its retailers push forward on the calendar to thanksgiving and black friday. the head of volkswagen has broken his silence more than two years after the scandal broke. about 20,000 workers in the manufacture and germany. he had asked them to signal their commitment to employees. it is the third in less than a year for the struggling music streaming service. a former clot -- sound cloud executive starts his new job next year. the company has in unable to compete with apple and spotify and daughter by rumors the tycoon plans to sell it. you can always get more business news at bloomberg.com. in the race to the white house, there seems to be no slowing down for front runner donald trump here he seems to be getting a bump in the latest national poll out.

now toilemann joins me explain it i alluded to the poll there. this is the latest poll, what did we learn? , ife learned donald trump anything, has gotten a boost in the new mood of the country post paris. saying trumphatter would fall now because he made these claims that are obviously untrue about thousands of muslims celebrating in new jersey after 9/11, it has not hurt him. he has mocked in disgraceful faction, a disabled new york times reporter. everyone said that will hurt him. he continues to rise it is in a strong position leading among republicans in every demographic. this is the thing about trump people do not get heelys with evangelicals, somewhat conservatives, and very conservatives. people are gaining on him and some of those categories but he is strong across the board arguably getting stronger rather than weaker. here is a piece in the

times this morning talking about republicane establishment worried about a chump candidacy in the election and now some talk about what they mark -- what they might start doing. >> the republican establishment is a mythical concept. it has been eroded and degraded in various ways. right now, those who can do math, and the ones who can do math look at donald trump in a general election and say, he has got a disapproval rating with high and i'd -- in the 60's. you cannot win the presidency if you do not get a certain number of women's votes and a certain number of hispanic votes and trump would have a hard time on the bases of what we know now doing that. the establishment things he would lose for sure and they think more, and this is what the story in the times got too, that the party establishment is really worried that if he were on the ticket, not only would he lose badly but would drive the rest of the party down.

would lose control of the senate and might even lose control of the house. that is what is starting to really galvanize the establishment. they recognize that trump might win and his losing in the general election would not just hurt him. it could really destroy the party across the board. thank you very much. up "with tonight on all due respect." we will send it to julie hyman who has the latest. commodities close in oil, i wanted to come back to it. a dramatic move today. oil was already trading lower before janet yellen began speaking. as she continued, we saw it make the lows of the day. we have seen some degree of dollar strength today. now down 4%, a touch below before rebounding a little bit. today, we got the weekly inventories data out on the

u.s.. analysts were looking for a drawdown on the inventory. what you are looking at on my bloomberg terminal, i seasonally where we see oil. it only goes back 30 years. here is all of the 30 years and where oil has been trading over the course of the year. it gives you an idea of what an outlier this year is in terms of the amount of supply out there. highest level of oil inventories this year for this time of year since 1930. it is sort of an extraordinary level of supply. take a look at oil for the year to date as well. below $40 per barrel, we saw a trade around that level in mid-november but have not in oil do this poorly since the big drop we saw not just in stock market but in the oil market in august going into september. an extraordinary move affecting big oil companies, as you might

expect. a pullback today. exxon mobil and chevron, affected by a downgrade after movies made an investment in one of its affiliates. and wea big story today do not want to overlook it talking about yellen, for example. david: thanks so much. as we go to break, i want to get new details on the active shooting. mark crumpton at the news desk. please are responding to reports of an active shooter at a social services facility. the associated press sites which lawhead is telling reporters no arrests have been made but there are reports of 1-3 suspects. police are working to secure the scene in east of los angeles. reports of an active shooter and authorities say there are reports of multiple victims. we will continue to follow this story and will give you the

latest information as soon as we get it. market day continues in a moment. ♪

david: welcome back. yahoo! shares falling following reports. joining me now with more on yahoo! is emily chang, joining us from san francisco. let's talk about the report and yet another report here that melissa myers 10 year yahoo! might come to a close. emily: we know the board is meeting and will discuss strategic options. number one, do they proceed with a selloff of alibaba stake? they had been planning to do that since january. do they succeed in selling off that stake. the other question is do they sell off the core media business? what makes yahoo! yahoo!?

i have been talking to a number of different sources. some people are saying the list of possible buyers is short. maybe at&t and maybe verizon. the wall street journal is reporting potentially news corp. could be interested. you have got the suntrust analyst saying what about disney . maybe the list is a little longer than some people might suggest but it is a huge decision. potentiallyk about going private. do they try to restructure this thing privately? it would be a difficult and painful restructuring. something that would be easier to do as a private rather than a public company camera samira lost several top lieutenants over the last several months. square.as gone on to kathy, the head of media , rob, also part of the media business. she has not been able to stem

the bleeding of the talk executive. i spoke to a board member who says we have got to give the woman more time. you have people out there saying, you need more time and other people saying she is had enough. i recently spoke with mike morris, the chairman of capital, on board of yahoo! for a long time. the marissa to situation but it is interesting to hear the perspective. take a look. i am no longer involved with yahoo! and have not had a front seat there. has a very difficult challenge on her hands. >> what else did you talk to him about and what else will be on the show tonight? >> one of the most successful in theory, he was also on board of google for a long time. we talked about valuations. what do you think about the

environment right now, late stage investing, what do you think about what is going on in china? a really robust business in china. one of the most interesting parts of the conversation was the discussion about diversity. the venturene of capital firms that has no female general partner. what does he think the responsibility is there, how much does he think about and how much are they working to improve diversity at the firm? it is an interesting conversation. we also talked about the idea that you have to be a founder or a ceo to be a good investor. mike is neither. he is a former journalist and he had provocative things to say. i am looking forward to tonight. thank you so much. you can catch studio one point can catch the full interview right here on bloomberg television. it is the season of giving in one of the cherished

organizations in new york asking you to step up. we are joined now. talk a bit about the drive that you mount every year. we're talking about hundreds of codes.ds of clad absolutely or we are now launching the 27th annual coat drive. we started collecting here with bloomberg in the middle of october and launched citywide in the middle of november. we are right now in the midst of trying to hit at least 100,000 collection. the best estimate we have just raised on the many requests we get is the need is anywhere between 100 and 150,000 codes in new york city. year, donated and sites all over the city from police precincts to transportation hubs in the morning. one of the great partners like --omberg flats of these philanthropies helps us collect. a lot of strategies to try to push that number up. david: talk about how big this

campaign has grown in a relative -- relatively short time. grown so large. we have collected and distributed 127 million coat spirit we are daunted by how big the need actually is. one thing that always makes me optimistic is there are a lot of innovative partnerships. the presentflat bloomberg lp, if an employee donates the code, bloomberg is matching that with a cash donation, where we can purchase a coat, which we can do for about $20 all in. also encouraging employees to make financial donations. about $90,000 that will deliver more than 8000 codes in addition to the 1200 donated. david: what is the distribution

network like for this? >> all the codes come into a central warehouse and we run on volunteer power. we have volunteers every day sorting them into men's, women's, children's, and toddlers, bags of five. , firstly, first come serve, we are able to call and say your order is ready. they come down to the warehouse and pick them up and in that way, we are able in eight weeks to bring in about 100,000 codes and get them back out the door. david: you are focused just in new york were wider still? >> we have partners across the country and in our network light by the points of foundation. effort foundedde to improve life for all new yorkers and we stick to our guns on that one. .avid: thank you very much as we go to break, we are

monitoring breaking news about a shooter in california. a story we have been reporting for the last 20 minutes or so, police in california, about 60 miles each of los angeles, responding to reports of an active shooter at a social services facility. you're looking at a live picture in los angeles. there were reports of multiple victims according to lieutenant wrench -- rich lawhead who spoke to reporters. so far, no arrests have been made but there have been reports of possibly one and upwards of three suspects. to secure working that scene. east of los angeles. according to the associated press, the police are responding to reports of an active shooter at a social services shooter facility. some things we do not know, we do not know how many shooters or if there are hospitals held at the facility.

not know what lengths the shooter has had. to speculate at this point would be at the very least, not in the best interest of the story. know police are looking for an active shooter at a social services facility and there are reports of multiple victims so far. we do not know if there are any fatalities. san bernardino, california, about two miles east of los angeles. the live shot you're seeing from a helicopter, courtesy of k aac in los angeles. we will continue to follow the story and bring you updates as soon as we get them. ♪

>> welcome to bloomberg markets. ♪

good afternoon p betty liu. here is what we're watching at this hour. janet yellen signaling confidence in the economy ahead of the rate decision, laying the groundwork for a lift off later this month. board is trying to figure out what to do with the internet business. what does that mean former us a myers future and the competitive landscape. plus, harvard is sick of losing to yell. football field or in the rankings, but the endowments. what it will do to revise sagging funds. i want to head to the market desk where julie hyman has the latest.