all of you. we are 20 seconds away from the friday morning session. global stop crash is what we see because a search and super mario disappointed. . the cac 40 index were down. they stop 600 was down more than 3%. let's see how these markets are opening up today. we do not see the same cell up at the moment that we saw yesterday. dax is still waiting to open. let's check on some of the stocks we are watching today. it might seem like it is all about mario draghi, but their other things to look at. this was one of the best stocks performing yesterday. it is one of the best stocks performing this year. the top net income was a miss, but the dividend beat estimates.

the dividend return program would be enhanced. it looks like that will be moving higher. kta.same with elec the stock has been pulled higher this morning. . up with the berkeley group 5%. glencore, finally. persist,opper prices consis they will have more days of losses. we will see how that opens. onally, just a quick check the euro dollar. the euro jumped the most since 2009 yesterday. almost 6/10 ofn 1%. jonathan: thank you very much. that is the opening session in

europe. the nikkei is down by 2%. that is what is happening in markets. first up, the euro climbs. draw the disappoints with his -- draghi disappoints. asn, focus shifts to the fed investors await the last u.s. payrolls for 2015. volatility. the oil market swings as traders look ahead to the opec meeting today. euro was sent soaring, bonds fell and there was a huge dog selloff. not what you expect from the anouncement of response to the stimulus program. speaking after the announcement, mario draghi said more could be in the cards. >> the governing council will and if monitor

warranted, is willing and able to act by using all of the instruments available within its mandate in order to maintain an appropriately green monetary combination. jonathan: for more on the fallout, let's go over to berlin and join hans nichols. it is great to have you with us this morning. aghi disappoints" is the headline we are all hearing. hans: we are reading to a lot of the notes this morning. it is clear everybody underestimated the resistance of the bank. why wasn't this purchase increased be on the $60 billion? that is the key question. one thing we are waiting for, in

addition to the job numbers. the eurot tell us story. we are looking at these figures here. ever soise inflation slightly to 1%, before they are at 1.1%. for 2015, their growth forecast improved from the september forecast. 1.5 are up from 1.4% to percent for the eurozone growth. they moderately tweaked it up after we had disappointing news of from china. not to mention over the summer. they are moderately optimistic. 5%is still only at one point growth. that brings us back to the german question. how long are they comfortable to keep extending it six months indefinitely without saying it is open-ended? jonathan: thank you very much. these decisions impact

markets in 2016? sheila, it is great to have you with us. draghi disappoints seems to be the headline that came out of the decision. thatere reason to believe rate,nthly purchase the $60 billion is where it ends? >> there is more. there is a big disparity from where the market is. give up to their growth. we have not up to growth forecast. there is a lot of debate in the market about that. if you believe growth is still challenged in the eurozone, you would do more. jonathan: how much resistance is there as you gauge things right now? size, duration, and composition. he did not tick the box for

"size." us tois hard for any of guess exactly what is going on. without there being opposition, it is hard to imagine what you would not tick all three boxes. as you have seen a central banks around the do, when you try to engage in a stimulus, generally, people pulled out all the stops. maybe there is a christmas present to come late. jonathan: we will talk about janet yellen later. she will be happy, i am sure. 2016, ate looking for the epicenter of the consensus, everything plays around that. >> i think divergence is still the central call for next year. i think our position in goldman sachs asset management is people see action in december.

that is not the question anymore. he question is the pace. what will be the pace from here? it seems to us that the indications from the fed and yellen are a moderate pace. it is not an aggressive pace. if you see a change in u.s. growth or a different headline in the global environment, that could change. as long as the pace is kept moderate, you will see people adapt to a fed height cycle. jonathan: the front-end of the was huge.rmany the equity's plunge was big as well. what does that tell you about the market? >> we his inclines get more and more nervous about the developing markets. investmenten the angle of 2016 and if the ecb does not deliver, it changes thought.process of

if you had positioned yoursel and the client expected more from the ecb, a change to that view is something they have to adapt to quickly. jonathan: if we don't get the stimulus without we would get, are the earnings going to? support the equity markets? morethink we have become cautious in the equity markets, but we think there is more opportunity. the challenge we have is both of the ecb unpredictability. basically, they have been thrown by the markets to do more. and also, the dependency that many different corporations inside europe have had with emerging markets, particularly china. we see opportunities on some of the more domestic plays. plays benefiting from europe directly. jonathan: where are they? >> we see strength and the periphery. we think some moves from the

ecb help the periphery, rather than the core. placese to look for where the weaker euro is helpful. one of the challenges is geopolitical and people's concerns about the other risks. to those other risks disrupt the opportunity that will lower your thoughts about export. $1.09an: here are we at at the moment. or just below that. we have seen a little bit of a retracement after yesterday. how much of the week euro how much are with $1.10.o at >> people have been arguing that some point, the euro would hit

parity for years. i don't know. any kind of confidence that this is the end is when we get surprised. there is a fair bit priced in, that there are a lot of challenges ahead for europe. what happens in china and what happens with the geopolitical issues going on in europe are up for debate and can affect the euro further. will talk about geopolitics in a couple minutes. for you, they are going into next year. the federal reserve, as you go to the payrolls number a little under today, the estimate is $200,000. how bad does the number need to be today to stop them from hiking? >> it would have to be pretty bad. it is one number and when you look at the body of information you have about growth in the u.s., it is fairly strong. when you look at questions about how the high-yield market is doing with the energy sector

seemingly on its heels, it is still relatively benign. we still forecast that even with a more challenging economy in light of federal hikes, we still don't think that that hike would drive a high-yield market into any worse than historical default rates. in 2016.recasting 3.5% there is a fair bit to argue for continued u.s. strength and growth and for them to start their hike cycle. jonathan: this quote pretty much wrapped up december mostly for me. exist.hings apparently that for me, speaks volumes about what will happen next year. expectations versus reality. the ecb will not do as much as people expected and maybe the fed will do a lot less than people expected. to athink we are back

world, when we look at what central banks do, we are back to reading tea leaves. and we have to adjust to that. we have gotten so used to a lot of transparency as the world tried to deal with a global and financial crisis. we are a world of new wants now. you will look at not just today's actions, but at the quotes, the conversations, the individual speeches, and try to divine what they mean in between. future," ick to the would say. jonathan: 12 minutes into the session yesterday, we were all starting to read the tea leaves. on my screen this morning, pretty much flat. the calm after the storm. tops get to bloomberg's

stories. the euro has slipped back against the dollar after its biggest one-day jump since 2009. double-shift everyone's attention to the u.s. payroll ahead of this month's crucial federal reserve meeting. brent crude has a weekly loss as opec meets. had informal discussions yesterday, insisting nonmember producers such as russia, would have to join any output cuts by opec. erman factories rose for the first time in four months. the u.s. payroll is due later today. it is the last key piece of economic data ahead of the federal reserve's decision. janet yellen did little to dampen expectations of a rate increase. coupled with my judgment that

long-term inflationary expectations remain reasonably well anchored, serve to bolster my confidence in a return of inflation to 2% as of the dis-inflationary effects of declines and energy and import prices wane. sheila, at the federal reserve the stimulus was very much about the they were market. on the way out it seems we shifted to the other side of the mandate. it is about the inflation side of the mandate. is that what they tie the rate hike to? be a keyk that will factor and janet yellen has indicated that is the indicator she is watching. i think overall, one of the biggest issues will be to change,their pace of

alongside what is going on with u.s. growth. there is enormous political pressure not to destabilize growth or to destabilize any positive signs in the u.s. economy. jonathan: we are going to go to paris for the climate summit. let's take a listen. >> as you have always stood with us from the founding of our country. thame also join in nking mayor hidalgo. she has done an extraordinary job pleading paris forward in a difficult time. [applause]

>> i think they like you. she really has done an and job aordinary leading paris. she has also done a good job making this summit as extraordinary as it could be. we stand with harris. we understand what they have gone through. we will always be with the city. no better place to host this summit than here, which has so often been the center of events have shaped our history. i don't think there is any better time than the present. it has been three weeks since the tragic attacks in paris took so many innocent lives. to be here i happen that they working to finalize arrangements for that summit.

the morning after the attacks of to offerto city hall our support and promised that all of us would be here today in solidarity with paris. we must always stand united against terror as we are today because when we stand together as one, there is nothing we can't accomplish. i truly believe it is the dressing idea behind this summit. climate change poses risks to every city and every region in our country, but if we work together we can meet that challenge as well. this group is leading by example and as the largest ever meeting of mayors and local leaders on the firstange, and ever local, to coincide with its national negotiations on climate, we are making history right here today. we did not come to paris to make history, we came to shape the future. and this group is uniquely positioned to do exactly that. you are an incredibly diverse

group, but you are driven by a common goal, to show that the to confrontis climate change head on. you have the authority to act and you will succeed. you are making great strides. today and over the coming weeks, we will highlight the work we are doing and put local climate action on the global stage. that is critically important. so far, international negotiations have not recognized the contributions local leaders can make and the role you must play. today's summit we think will fix that. it will help cities and local governments set climate goals, create plans, and report progress. and by drawing the world's attention to our progress, we can encourage national leaders to think boldly and act quickly. today we are more united than ever before in this fight. we are speaking with one of

voice and that voice must be heard. i want to thank all of you again for being here and i want to think all of the city networks that have come together to support this summit. historic days a and i am looking forward to what we can accomplish. let me turn the floor back over so we can proceed with the real business this morning. thank you. [applause] >> thank you, that is a very inspiring speech. jonathan: that is some of the climate summit. i have the ceo from goldman sachs with me. i want to discuss the push and pull between the fund manager. have the manage that balancing act? >> it has become quite a

continuum. prize in the interest in social issues and climate issues has been dramatic. it started in europe, but it has spread to the u.s. and is increasing in asia. with a have started negative list. make sure these things aren't in my portfolio. or, i have this amount of money to do some social good. today, more and more clients are asking to have this kind of you. that becomes much more difficult. it means different things to different people. i would say, we focus on finding ways to find value. using principles of good governance. that foundations of tsg make common sense when it comes to the investing side. and helping clients develop their portfolios along those lines. the clients believe the decision they have to make

is very different from the individual client sitting at home with a small pension. how do they manage what could be a carbon risk premium? when do they need to start thinking about it? next year, five years, 10 years? one is it? thinkingk they are both in the short-term and long-term. even those groups with large pools of capital are generally representing millions of individuals. the amount of pressure those whether it iser, a large sovereign wealth fund, is immense from the social pressure they are getting from the holders of these assets. what we can't forget is that $15 trillion of wealth over the next decade or more full transfer to millennials. they want to see change. what we see clients doing is in the near-term saying, ok, the amount of investable assets are small. let me find a pocket. let me make some portion of my asset allocation toward these efforts. another portion of their

activities has been to petition for the creation of more investment opportunities in these areas. green bonds, social good bonds, etc. in the long-term, they are asking us about ways to develop portfolios that can demonstrate they are supporting things that would have less of a carbon footprint. have less dependency on certain aspects of the energy cycle. or use less resources. they face the climate change talks. they also have to think about opec as well. let's talk about vienna full agility. join us from will thvienna. here i don't think anyone is getting a production cut. we did get this somewhat offer from the

saudi's. they said they would be prepared to cut down the road. they said if other countries joined them in those cuts. many are calling this a red herring. i just got up the phone with the an largest oil producer. they said is impossible for them to cut. are upping their output in any case. i spoke with the iranian oil minister. he is not prepared to take part in any cuts. this may be the kind of upper saudi arabia knows they can make, but not have to make good on. we will have a heated discussion. the nigerian oil minister holds the presidency right now and says we will go into it with an open mind. there will be a heated discussion. the most you can help or out of

this is a little bit of forward guidance as to what opec is prepared to do next year. jonathan: thank you very much for joining us. sheila from goldman sachs asset management is still with us. i see a couple important variables. what happens with the price of brent? these things equate to gather to generate inflation expectations. if you don't know those two things how do you set policies for the next few years? >> it is one of the quandaries and it is another reason we are stuck reading tea leaves. when you think about what we just heard and think about energy prices, two or three years ago, with we have ever said a decline of this magnitude could be a negative, could be a challenge? we would have said, what a drastic help to growth. we have seen in some places.

it has helped in the u.s. and places like india,, where from a growth perspective they could easily be the fastest-growing economy in the world. a lot of investors have interest. when you think about it from a central banker's perspective, it is a challenge for the u.s. it is something that could stimulate the u.s. consumer and could lead to inflation and some challenges terms of the pace of change. the amount of energy infrastructure has made it more important in of the u.s. economy than ever before. there is a real balance and i think they will watch it. jonathan: the portfolio is very compelling as well. you see the saudi redemption. that is the difficulty for asset managers into 2016. what is the big convection call from goldman sachs asset management? does december change anything?

>> december has not changed much for us. we still see a lot of opportunities in the equity space. we think it is a time to be actively looking at growth areas within places like china and india. stay away from state owned enterprises. try to find the singular companies that are producing. we still think there are plenty of opportunities. have to be selective. we would say, a more broad-based , open portfolio approach, as opposed to a very singular asset class of only high yield were only looking at developed and emerging markets sovereign debt is not the way. moreve had more and clients move into a more open architecture type of approach. the strategic income.

it is great to have you with us this morning. jonathan: up next, we go back to paris for the cop21. good morning. ♪

jonathan: good morning, welcome back to "on the move." we are 30 minutes into the session. of stoxx 600 is down by 1/3 1%. yesterday had the biggest drop of the dax yesterday since december. -- a sense september. ped german 10 year yield pop the most since 2012. 0.66% euro-dollar parity.

$1.09.o-dollar is the biggest jump since 2009. we are of stock stories out there. let's get to three of them. biggestm looking at the movers on the stoxx 600 today. i was going to start with berkeley group. elekta advances and sells advanced medical equipment. berkeley group is the best the 5100.on that stock is rallying today. there was news about the dividend. also, the company says the dividend return program would go up from 13 pounds per share to 16 pounds per share. dividends.t

it said it will pay higher dividends to shareholders because of its robust capital levels, which are coming into effect in january. axa made his comments at an investment day yesterday. back to you. jonathan: thank you very much. the cross over to bloomberg tv with francine lacqua, who is standing by in paris at the cop21. , we are: good morning very excited to be in paris because there is a lot up momentum that we will get a climate deal. i am joined by the secretary general o. ? you believe we will have an agreement? >> yes, i believe we will have an agreement. is the quality of the agreement, whether it is legally binding and enforceable, that is not the crux of the issue. the issue is the quality of the

deal. if you have a good deal, nobody will dare undo it. if you are a democrat or republican, or what ever. francine: what is a good deal? is it something that is easy for everybody? and rightans loose now, we have lost in of time. the two degree target is critical. it is the backbone of everything. the national commitments are already in place. we have 184 countries that have already submitted. that is the grated asset we have to build on. there is also submissions like for example, verification measurements, verification reporting. you do a little bit of naming and shaming, and calling to the

responsibility with her pressure. the other thing that is critical is the omission. two degree is the end. how do you go through the path when you know you are going to overshoot the normal business as usual? you have to get down to the 2% path. and then, you have to do it in a way which is least costly and faster. you need a gps for that. a gps tells you where you are, where you want to go, and had to get there. you also need the financing for the weakest. that is going to be controversial. it always is. but we believe it is doable. we are already at 62 billion dollars as measured by the oecd. do you hope to have an

agreement on finance? >> that is one of the elements. what will be critical is the emission, how you get there, as we said. it also, we don't know enough. we have to be a little frugal. we have to say, you have the two degrees, but we will never know if we are going in that direction. every five years we have to reset and then to another. we have to be moving and navigating and then, we will be looking at these results. these things manifest themselves in 10, 15, and 20 years. we have to adjust over time. it has to be a dynamic, flexible type of agreement that is very ambitious in the end with a lot of flexibility built in on how you are going to adjust the commitments. you are starting from a very good place, which is already today, all the countries came in and put their commitments on the table.

one of the parts of the gps is to say, "how are you doing?" francine: when you look at sustainability and the global economy, would you say we have a global recovery, or is there a chance we go into a recessionary growth? >> all of the signals are quite discouraging. trade is growing at 2% while the world economy is growing at 2.9%. only five of the last 50 years has traded grown below the growth of the gdp for the world at large. and those five times, there has always been a recession. i am not saying we are going to have a recession. to have are going to use everything we have got to avoid one. investment is the seed of tomorrow's growth. investment is 3.3%.

and, the engines of the last 10 years, the emerging market -- a russiare all is in recession, china, the big, big growth engine of the last 6.7%, 6.8%, will go to 6.2% in 2016. we have a very uneven recovery. the japanese had eight recession with two quarters of negative growth. the u.s. continues to look like the right spot. francine: you look at the engine of growth. you could argue the central banks. >> we oh a lot to the central banks. the central banks have said

repeatedly that they have been the heroes of this movement. very strong and did everything in their power. they are running out of ammo. they have done what they can. they are at 0% interest rates. they are all in the big economies, the central banks have their interest rates at 0% or negative. the last announcement by mario draghi was somewhat interest rates to stimulate the banks to lend rather than to deposit the money. we have is a situation where now, the treasuries, the ministries of the economy ,nnovation, education flexibility on the labor market. flexibility on the product markets. take a hard look at the tax structures. take a good look at the r&d.

it was doing more research and development? withhey connecting well the private sector? these are the things that will keep the recovery moving along. francine: is it your concern that we are moving -- that we are losing ammunition? you would argue that the fed has to raise rates now. >> i have been asking the fed to raise the rates now for many months, actually sounds last year. i said listen, we have grown addicted to this. normality is good. in the uniteded states more than 13 million jobs in the last 5.5-6 years. it is a fantastic story of success and that should be acknowledged. also, the temper tantrum to point fivet two years ago. there is plenty of time for the countries to have adjusted. those who did not, what can we say?

in the u.s. ison long overdue. it is not going to have all of these terrible effects on the rest of the country's. many of the countries that were worried one year ago are now saying come don't create more uncertainty. the only ones that are making money out of this uncertainty or the speculators. let's just do it. it is not a lift off. you lift off is it canaveral and it goes up like this. it will be very gradual. it will take a few years. and as i said, it is a sign of normality and normality is good. francine: thank you so much for joining us. if we do have a lift off, which strongly encourages, don't call it a lift off. it is not cape canaveral

jonathan:. expect nothing but action from him. we will have more from cop21 throughout the morning. is french president hollande also speaking at the climate meeting. we will continue to monitor this throughout the day and bring it to you. ahgiruggi disappoints, the focus shifts to the last u.s. payroll of 2015. a little less than $1.09. ♪

jonathan: good morning, welcome back to bloomberg television. let's look at how stocks are shaping up. of 1%. is down 4/10 the biggest drop since september. the 5100 is lower by 4/10 of 1%. this draghi the grinch that stole christmas? brent crude is trading about $44 a barrel ahead of the opec decision. let's get you up to speed on some of the top stories here at

bloomberg. the euro has slipped back against the dollar after its biggest one-day jump cents 2009. investors now shifted their attention to the u.s. payroll ahead of the critical reserve meeting. brent crude has a weekly loss as people gather in vienna. saudi arabia at informal discussions yesterday. russia did not want to join any opec cuts. demand for investment and consumer goods jumped. the top story of the last 24 hours. draghi disappoints and the euro surged after the ecb measures failed to impress investors. the focus now shifts to the u.s. payroll. what the want to know

employment number may mean for the federal reserve. here is what janet yellen and ecb president mario draghi have said. septemberarison with 2015, macroeconomic projections, the outlook for inflation has been revised down slightly. >> gains in the market, coupled with my judgment that inflationary expectations remain reasonably well anchored, serve to bolster my confidence in a return to inflation to 2% as the disinflationary effects of the declines and import prices wane. >> we are doing more because it works. not because it ails. we want to consolidate something that has been a success. delay they to

start of policy normalization, we would have to tighten policy abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting both of our goals. i am joined on set now. richard, just a quote that sums up december. it is absolutely fascinating. what we are left with is a hike from the federal reserve. we have a hawkish low from the ecb. and is the impact of draghi the ecb? >> that is a great quote. i think, to me, the thing i have been focused on throughout the past week is, what is the impact going to be on the euro dollar

exchange rate? we have talked about this various times on and off this week. i don't think the ecb wanted the euro to be trading at parity in a short space of time. jonathan: you have said that. >> they don't want it trading at $1.15, but they are pretty happy with it trading at $1.05. if you look at the inflation forecasts, $1.09 is the rate they used, which is where we are right now. the market disappointed, but i don't know necessarily, if draghi would be disappointed. jonathan: when you have the market move against you with that vicious and aggressive move against the euro, that stinks of a policy missteps and a communication error. that is hard to say that is not what happened this month. >> i would argue that the price

moved against those that shortened the euro yesterday. nths andwind 2-3 mo look at what is changed on the governing council. the deposit rate cut was not on the table and if draghi was concerned about the downside beento inflation, he has able to shift the dial reasonably quickly. that leads me to believe if they need to do more, and they have left room to do more, he will be able to shift the dial again. increase they can't this program going into next year. there is a group of people though, and this is a serious conversation. composition. size was left on the table. given the vagueness in the news conference as well, is maybe they can't and they won't increase the size of the program. you disagree?

>> i think if mario draghi feels he needs to do it, he will be able to convince the governing council to increase the size. that was because of disappointment for the market. , the immediacy of not getting another 25 billion euros a month, i think he could still come through if he thinks he needs to. jonathan: richard jones, great to have you with us this hour. as we approach the final segment, we wrap up the day. we look at what to expect. i also hear mario draghi will be speaking a little bit later in new york. that is next. ♪

jonathan: good morning. welcome back to "on the move." yesterday, we had a fascinating trading session. the opec opening session begins shortly. the u.s. payrolls, the last report of 2015, comes up at 1:30 u.k. time. draghi speaks in new york at 4:45 u.k. time. first up, opec. the meeting gets underway in vienna. ministers wrangle for an all

output cut. with get the opec dealt over in vienna. to listen to the saudi's. give us the day guide, if you can. ryan: let me set the same. int meeting will take part six minutes. we are right outside the meeting. if you see a minister outside right now, he is late. the press is still standing. they are so anxious to talk to the ministers. the ministers are anxious to say absolutely nothing. it is a huge amount of disagreement from the opec ministers. we have heard from the venezuelans and from the iranians. some call for a production cut, but we know the 70's are not backing that idea. they are prepared to cut, maybe not at this meeting, but down the line if some non-opec countries joined in because with them.

the phone with the they havend they said heard this 1000 times before. they are only raising production. then of course, the other part of this offer from the 70's is other members within -- from the will's is other members have to cut as well. the iranian minister said wednesday sanctions get removed, then they would be prepared to talk about a production ceiling. what we are looking for is a little bit of forward guidance. think of opec as of the central bank of oil and while they may not do anything dramatic today, later.y make changes let's discuss what opec is going to do and 2016.

when they sit down, it will be a very heated discussion. the saudi's will probably get their way. the strategy of letting production to rise to squeeze out the high cost reducers will work. -- high-cost producers will work. jonathan: much more from ryan throughout the morning on bloomberg tv. richard jones joins us now. schooltalk about the use. they will be sensitive on crude. they were sensitive on the euro yesterday. at the eurooking dollar today, which is the better part of 3/4 of 1% off of what we saw yesterday. the fed is still in play and what we saw from the perils today, could keep that in play. jonathan: thank you very much for joining us this morning. it is a big day ahead.

we have the final payroll reports from u.s. of 2015. have a fantastic weekend. ♪

european markets mixed this morning. all about the jobs. u.s. releases it payrolls report in just a few hours. the last before this month's crucial fed meeting. and oil output. a volatile week for brent as on production policy. we are live from vienna. welcome to "the pulse"