from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york, good afternoon, i am scarlet fu. are down sharply today. opec ministers decide to retain oil output at 31.5 million barrels a day. nigeria says of the cartel may meet again before june if prices keep falling. adds 211,000omy jobs in november, topping analyst estimates. does this clear the way for a fed liftoff this month? lyft forms a global alliance to take on uber. how will they respond? let's go to the markets desk where matt miller has been checking the numbers. we are clawing back some of the numbers from yesterday's job report. matt: take a look at the indexes to see where we are going. up across the board and we continue to rise.

the dow jones now adding 222 points, not the highs of the day, but if you look at the intraday chart, you can see the trend is up. we crested around 11:00, but with any luck, for the longs, we will hold it there. i have this function on my terminal. this breaks down the industry groups in the s&p and shows their volume in comparison to the average volume over the past 20 days. we are doing better volume in the s&p overall. financials, telecom, utilities are up. the lastg-time, double 20 days. everything is showing gains with the exception of industrials and health-care stocks, in terms of volume. i want to mention also chipotle. the stock is very important to me, as a massive eater of also a concern

because e. coli has been a real concern. the cdc has come out and said they found additional cases linked to chipotle food in three additional states. as a result, the stock is down right now 4%. consumer?chipotle scarlet: not a big fan. matt: it is so delicious. scarlet: a little too salty. matt: personal decision. newmont mining, it boosted its production targets. it also said a couple days ago that production will be cheaper, so margins will be better. gold rising today as well. take a look at apple. an interesting story out that $540ng has agreed to remit million in patent fees to apple,

and i just looked at the chart and apple has $205 billion in cash, so half a billion is not really putting a debt in their finances. nothing to sneeze at. scarlet: thank you. we will be checking in later on for some individual movers. let's get to the headlines now with mark crumpton. new details are emerging about one of the suspects in that deadly shooting rampage in california. there are reports that tashfeen malik pledged allegiance to the islamic state. alias totedly used an pledge on facebook and then deleted it before the attack. she was a pakistani who came to the u.s. in 2014 to marry syed farook. both died in a shootout with police. 14 were killed and 21 others wounded in that shooting at a social services center in san bernardino. united states has launched a major effort to track down and

kill the leader of islamic state , according to an obama administration official who says he has gone into hiding. the official says that at the current pace, the u.s. is killing a mid to high level islamic state reader every two days. a cafe where five people were killed in the attacks in paris has reopened. the trendycafe in central paris district has been shuttered since the attack. mourners have been piling flowers outside of the cap outdoors. england governor mark carney is backing a global effort on companies and climate change. the goal is to bring greater transparency to the way companies disclose risks. willr mayor mike bloomberg lead a panel on voluntary company reporting standards. bloomberg is the founder and majority owner of bloomberg lp, the parent company of bloomberg news. tonight at 8:00 and 11:00 eastern time, changing climate,

changing business. john nichols discusses the implications of climate change on the financial markets with former mayor mike bloomberg and fsb chair mark carney. that is a look at our first word news right now. you can get more 24 hours a day at the new bloomberg.com. back to you. scarlet: thank you. opec is rattling the oil market. the group has decided to retain production at 31.5 million barrels a day, according to the secretary of nigeria. he also says opec may meet again before june if prices keep falling. ryan chilcote is on the scene indiana with the latest. opec said prices tumbling a year ago when they decided not to cut production. this time around, they have set a new ceiling. what does this mean?

ryan: this was the most chaotic outcome of an opec meeting i have seen in years. agreeduntries said they to raise the production ceiling to 31.5 million, some countries said they agreed to keep it at 30 million. the opec secretary-general said that they agreed to wait until their next meeting in june to decide on a number. communique,their the gospel of what they agreed on, they avoided the subject altogether. this means, effectively, the ministers coming out of the meeting, very few of them speaking. they did not actually agree on anything. the price of oil dipped below $40 a barrel. so there seems to be a lot of confusion. there was an informal meeting the day before, which is a typical. tell us about that which set the

tone for today's meeting. it is just very indicative of the huge amounts of disagreement among the countries about saudi arabia's strategy, which they embarked on with the rest of the group a year ago. that strategy has been to allow production to arise around the world with the goal of pushing out those high cost producers, deep water projects, with the expectation that eventually when they are squeezed out, the price of oil will rise. the disagreement among opec countries really was in place yesterday. we had those very unusual meetings before the official meeting today, and then today's meeting itself was incredibly long, triple the usual length. it included a completely unscheduled second session and we got all of these very confusing signals. what it means is different things for different countries.

arabia, you are effectively free to do what you want with production. in byyou are still locked the sanctions, but as soon as those are released, they intend to return to the markets, and they have the go-ahead to do basically what they want. venezuela was looking for a youuction cut of 5%, but if have agreement on a production ceiling, which we have, then obviously there will be no cut. i don't know what to make of the fact that they said that they will meet again if prices continue to go lower. negative results for people within the group who were hoping to reduce output. scarlet: discord within opec. thank you, ryan chilcote. reporting live in vienna. you want to move to the november jobs report. employers added more jobs than wall street economists expected.

the data appeared to bolster janet's confidence in the u.s. economy. joining us now with more is our intelligence economist. is there anything that would keep the fed from the normal policy? >> indefinitely pass the litmus test. it is really all systems go at this point. retail sales next friday will be worth keeping an ion. that is just not important enough to really derail things. there is really not much between now and december 16 to change things. that being said, geopolitics matter, markets matter. that is why fed funds futures are not expressing 100% certainty. scarlet: always exhaustion is shocks. let's get to the body of the report. you are looking at work hours and there is a troubling

deceleration. report was good enough to justify liftoff, but once we get into the details, some troubling pockets beneath the surface. first of all, factory sector pain continues. some uneven job growth. one other detail that was disappointing was the decline in the work week. 140 million workers out there less ofyone works 1/10 an hour in the week. that has a huge implication for worker hours. you look at aggregate our growth, it pulled back 1/10 in the month, has been decelerating over a broader time horizon. you're on your growth rate has been slowing. these hours are correlated closely with household income growth. so if the number of hours is slipping, that does not bode well for household income, and

in turn, household spending, which is the sole economic engine looking out over the next couple of quarters. scarlet: what about private servers uses job growth -- services job growth? >> it was fine but showed some degree of deceleration. we are focusing on the private sector to carry the economy forward as the goods producing sector is facing all of these headwinds from low energy prices, strong dollar, etc. another factor that may have been misleading in the reports is construction hiring. construction hiring has been accelerating the last few months, at the same time that output in the sector has been trailing off. so housing is not ending the year on a great note. that is a warm weather story. we have extended the building season due to the record warm temperatures we have seen to date. looking at the forecast, expected to continue through probably the end of the year. where is the fragility

in the economy right now, what are the risks this could take down healthy parts of the economy? >> we are good enough to initiate liftoff but all of these underlying details suggest the economy is fragile. a strong dollar, energy price story will be significant, depressing factors. a lot of economists say manufacturing employment is only about 10% of private-sector employment, but there are a lot of service sector jobs -- transportation, engineering, finance -- that is tied into the health of the manufacturing sector. based on manufacturing ism -- falling to the lowest level since the last recession to that means we have a two track economy, and that is not promising. scarlet: karl, thank you very much. much more coming up on the bloomberg markets. creating a cleaner planet. withel bloomberg, along

bank of england governor mark carney, or forming a task force clearlycompanies disclose their climate change risk. and we will speak to one critic of the central bank's decision to extend stimulus measures. member, ofr ecb cyprus, will be joining me later on to discuss whether mario draghi missed the mark. ♪

torlet: welcome back bloomberg markets. more than 180 companies are gathered in paris, at least representatives of those countries, for the cup 21

climate change forum. in a panel alongside mike bloomberg, mark carney, the bank discuss theovernor creation of a disclosure task or's that would gather information on companies behaviors to help understand and mitigate their climate related risk. mark carney explained why the task force is so critical. this ideally will be the one-stop shop for the right principles around climate, so that there can be a true market in transition toward a low carbon economy. there was a wide range of views amongst investors and providers of capital about the urgency of the issue, about the right technologies to back, about what companies are doing better, less don't have the information to express those views. scarlet: as you can see, john nichols moderated that conversation.

he is joined right now by tom keene in paris. scarlet, thank you. john, congratulations on what is always an important announcement. what i found so great about it, and it goes to the game theory of the corporate world, and that is the idea of embarrassing people into action. carney says that mike bloomberg will be doing a voluntary program, but then there is this thing -- should we do it, they are not doing it. all of a sudden, you have momentum toward climate change. all about numbers. the ability to look at companies and say this is what this person is doing, let's compare to someone else. saying the owner has a good idea, but really it was carney who began this. the particular push on transparency, trying to remain as neutral as possible, the idea behind this task force is not to

say lets in this particular group of people. it is to say, here is the information, you as investors can make the choice. this is a continual element of risk. if you have the measurement and the action to do it, there is a construction game theory of everybody gets on board. john: i think the game very analogy is rather a good one. if you have numbers -- think about it. every morning you come in and you want to see what things are. things to do with climate change in companies, there is more hot air then there is arguably in the atmosphere. companies are always saying that we have made ourselves carbon neutral, but we have left out 20 things. maybe a basic standard were people in the same industry can look at each other. this is useful, regardless of whether you are positive or negative on this. tom: let's have a fifth revolution, which is, within the

media coverage of global warming, climate change, where are we now, and is there a renewed momentum in coverage? wonderful way to hide my book, which is a wonderful thing. but there is some element of this. is changing. ngos and outsiders are coming up with ways to get ahead. you look at the debate in america. the people that are not having any kind of sensible debate on the environment tends to be the politicians. companies have to deal with this. you have a problem to do with climate change in a particular area. you have a problem to do with what is happening with your employees wanting things. you have to react. if you could numbers to that from an investment point of view, it is worth something. carney is not saying that this will be sending that will be immediate risk, at least while he is governor of the bank of england. but this could be a sizable financial thing like people like you and i will write and talk

about. women were more interested in my interview with robert redford than they were with you. idea was the gentleman from the university of manchester, kevin anderson, who is expert in global warming. the sites that was here surprised me. i expected more block, blah, blah, and i got more applied science. john: the science is getting more solid. it is one of those subjects with people who have been saying that there has been climate change have sometimes i'm a stupidly, exaggerated a bit. they were basically right, but they went too far. that gave the skeptics a chance to come in. the vast preponderance of numbers show that climate change is happening, and it is man-made. the question is how bad it is, what can we do about it, can we stop it to getting to two degrees? butlieve that is unlikely, at least we can make it less serious.

tom: kevin anderson working on a track e.on two degrees. i don't have an opinion on it other than saying, the smartest guys on the block are saying two degrees. john: governments are saying maybe we are not going to kid ourselves about this. or maybe the corporations are saying, this is going to happen, we have to deal with it. the idea of having a task force to have some numbers that investors can deal with is a good idea. i don't know if it will work, but you and i will be rude about it if it doesn't. the important announcement today by governor carney of the bank of england on a new program whatasure and adjust corporations do with their energy consumption. scarlet: tom keene in paris, thank you. as tom mentioned, you want to watch the full interview from the conference right here on bloomberg tonight, changing climate, changing business.

the implications of climate change on the financial markets with michael bloomberg and my carney of the bank of england. that airs at 8:00 and 11:00 eastern time. ♪

see, that isou can mario draghi, the president of ecb giving some headlines to the economic club of new york. the ecb tools will work with correct calibration and that the central bank will deploy further tools if necessary. the comments come one day after he and the ecb underwhelmed the markets with the expanded stimulus plan. matt miller has been looking at the euro. any impact? not from this speech, but i cannot get over it this morning, the greatest asset class move i have ever seen. here you see euro-dollar.

you can see this big spike up. for a while, the dollar was down against the euro. at oneimbed up to 1.0957 point, so a pretty insane move. now we have more dollar strength now that we have the divergence of monetary policy. take a look at some individual movers. the maker of chips for cameras, notably gopro. they came on a disappointing outlook for revenue and profit. as a result, the stock is down right now 3%. also, gopro stock is falling on the issue. a number of analysts coming out ella's problems highlight gopro's problems. tesla's down as well after recalling about 7000 vehicles or seatbelt issues.

scarlet: thank you so much, matt miller. again, more headlines coming out from mario draghi at the economic club of new york. he says the risk of deflation in the euro area is firmly off the table and that the central bank would need to push back inflation targets with no action. he also adds inflation would have been negative had he not acted and the measures are gradually feeding through into inflation. again, mario draghi speaking at the economic club of new york, a day after underwhelming investors with the latest stimulus expansion, in terms of duration, not so much the size of monthly purchases. we will continue to keep an eye on those headlines in new york. ♪

♪ >> from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, welcome back to bloomberg "markets." i am scarlet fu. mark?

the brother-in-law of one of the alleged attackers in san bernardino, california says that he was not radical. he also said that he is beginning the legal process to 's six-month-old daughter before the shooting. farook and his wife were killed in a shootout with police hours after the rampage at a social services center. there are reports that malik pledged support to the islamic a facebook posting, then deleted the posting. a nightclub in cairo. the police are looking for 2 suspects that carried out the attack because they were denied entry into the club. germany is joining the fight against the islamic state.

they approved a plan to central hundred troops and surveillance airplanes into syria. the troops will be used only in support roles, but it is the riskiest use of troops yet by angela merkel. the interior ministers agreed on insistence of getting law enforcement access for sharing information gathered by airlines. it would cover flights to and from the eu as well as within a. the eu parliament is expected to approve the measure. that is a look at her first word news. you can get or on these and other stories at the new bloomberg.com. i am mark crumpton. , the european central bank mark druggie, is a new york city addressing the economic club of it isrk, saying that having the effect as intended. let's bring a guy that knows

exactly what is turning in the ecb. he is a former member of the ecb and ran the ecb in cyprus. he joins us from cambridge. when we look at the headlines, there is a lot of emphasis on how the ecb can use further tools is needed. he is acknowledging underwhelming markets? first, i will say this is the most positive element i have seen in a press conference he gave yesterday. towent to great lengths explain the quantitative easing works, and eventually they will do more. the disappoint them twice that they did not do enough yesterday. it was clear. i was glad to see effectively communication today in new york. they are prepared to do more in order for the ecb to meet its objective. scarlet: i want to talk about

what is happening at the next meeting. he is keeping his powder dry and had said there are options ecb can take. what is it do for the ecb in january after the fed liftoff? >> i do not expect anything at the next meeting. i would hope they would reevaluate their stance at the march meeting, that would give us fresh projections. one of the disappointments yesterday, and this is also from the september meeting, that in september and yesterday the ecb revised works for inflation. thatre forecasting inflation will be below the mandate that is why it is expected they could do more. us ifime, they can give

the inflation will be in march. i hope they will do in march with a did not do yesterday. lots say that if mario draghi had delivered on a stimulus we would have seen a dramatic strength winning of the dollar. janet yellen does not want to strengthening of the dollar. you think the fed and ecb are coordinating? anthanasios: i do not think there is any coordinating. dispute that the effect on the exchange rate would be as large as some think. i would agree with the hadction, but if the ecb delivered on policy as they should have been doing, which is more than they have in doing, that would have strengthened the strengthenedhe economy would be a stronger, not weaker, euro. there would be some downward

pressure, but with a stronger economy you would have more credibility. scarlet: that would balance it out a little. let's switch to the jobs report. bill gross said the fed is poised to raise rates even though all conditions have not been that. set to go, and it is something i've been encouraging. not because of the tightness of the labor market or the fact that wages are increasing. we are up .2%. it .3% relative to .5? scarlet: he says there's no pressure from the standpoint of wages? do agree that the fed has not met its objective? anthanasios: i do not agree. number one, the mandate of the federal reserve is price stability and maximum employment . the mandate of the federal

reserve says nothing about wages. i know we all wish wages were higher, but it isn't something the fed can deliver. employment is back to normal. in my sense, the employment has been back to normal for some time. the fact that monetary policy operates with a lag, in my view the fed should have already started the process of normalization earlier. it is good they will go in december. i think they will need to do more than they suggest right now, what is reflected in markets. let me point out, this is because the feds beat qe effectively early on. it is a benefit of the fact that the federal reserve ease monetary policy quite a bit ago, years ago, two years four years ago, unlike the ecb. at thee ecb eased policy

same time, they would not have to be considering easing. scarlet: the fed may have been dot when it began quantitative easing, yet the fed may be behind the curve now. will it be the biggest challenge in managing normalization? anthanasios: the question is if the fed will be able to deliver a gradual pacet like they want to do. i think it will be going very quickly. by waiting so long the employment -- the unemployment rate has been going down so fast, the chances are high they will have an over economy next year that will force them to act faster than they wish. brinkley, i see -- frankly, i see markets next year. scarlet: thank you. with the m.i.t. sloan school of financial management.

mentioned, mario draghi speaking at the economic club of new york. you could watch his speech and the proceedings on the bloomberg terminal. coming up in the next 20 minutes, a monopoly in the making. a small group of concerned drinkers tries to block the biggest beer merger. 62 billion dollars, will other competitors at the dominance?ber's the feds will raise rates this month, we look at the odds. that and more on bloomberg television. ♪

scarlet: you are watching bloomberg. i'm scarlet fu. here is what we are watching. opec numbers refer on setting and output target at the latest meeting. after a summer of volatile swings china tries to bring order to its market. and trying to pull the plug on -- smbev sab march or merger.-- sab secretary-general explains the move. >> for their major of this year and next year, by that time, everyone will see how much they can contribute to the effort. it was not really mentioned the

amount. we are looking to negotiate more and see how we can reach a collective effort that all of us could contribute to the market. asia, china is invoking circuit breaker rules after wild swings in the stock market. a 5% to move in the index would trigger a 15 minute halt for stocks, options, and index futures. ceo of beauty and cosmetics giant l'oreal attended the conference in paris to renew commitment on making products green. the ceo gave his insights on growth within the company. >> we are growing in every region and division. we are globally getting market shares. it is not as easy as it was a few years ago when some markets were growling, but still, the

company is getting in most places. think there is no contradiction. you cannot do both. you cannot get market shares, grow your business, increase profits, and do what it takes. some american beer drinkers are not toasting the merger of inbev, sabmiller, and anheuser-busch. they say they will be forced to pay more for lower quality brews. inbev says the lawsuit has no merit. >> today, a big story is presale on the brink. what is going on and can it take itself out of the whole? economic growth and stagnation .rom 2011 to 2410 gdp contracted for the third consecutive quarter. inflation is running into double

digits. sovereign debt was downgraded to junk in september, and that could be the tip of the iceberg. a corruption probe has angled brazil. the largest bank of latin merica has impeachment -- inpatient proceedings to impeach the president. there are allegations that her campaign received fraudulent funds. brazil has seen boom and bust for two centuries. it could be the country's dependence on commodities. the second-largest iron reserves and the second largest producer of soybeans and the third largest of corn. now, the economy has sunk into a recession so deep goldman sachs calls it an economic depression. results options are to shore up maintain bond

ratings, they have tax increases and reducing the tax burden to seek terror of's in the next stage of growth. many critics argue that brazil should rely less on consumption, which accounts for 80% of the country's gdp. scarlet: thank you. this has been your global business report. for more stories visit bloomberg.com. abigail doolittle from the nasdaq where she will look at gopro. one of the most beaten-down stocks in 2015. today, hitting a fresh record low. once again on negative analyst commentary. ratings fromrrent neutral to outperform. the consensus estimates are likely to decline. there are no near-term catalysts

. aaron murphy within underweight rating cut her estimates. this has been sliding steadily to her target. for the movement, this is gopro's action chip maker, but there is one analyst defending gopro. an overweight rating. he says the valuation reflects the inventory issue. shares are trading at a discount . even with profits expecting to grow 30% this year at this time. dollar tree stock is up nicely after capital raised ratings to top pick from outperform. the $90 price target suggests it could move up by more than 20% from yesterday's close. this is something that current or new investors will welcome. investments,rm dollar tree is set to end on a

record high with the stock rising over the last three years, up 85% over that time. thank you. abigail doolittle reporting from the nasdaq. markets.y in the bill gross says the fed is ready to go with a rate increase next month. he joined us after the jobs report came out. to go.e set it is something i have been encouraging for a wild. not because of the tightness of the labor market or the fact that wages are increasing. they were up .2%. to .5?.3% relative there is no pressure from wages. the fed is ready to go because of concerns on the real economy. it will be an interesting experiment over the next three to as or so as they shift

new policy in terms of determining the rate using the excess reserves in terms of an interest rate. reverse repos as bottom. they will have to work with that. they will need at least three months to make sure it is smooth. tom: you wrote about wiley don't thinkrday, i that translates into paris. lee's address for the international audience how janet can avoid international mediocrities, including the challenges that mario draghi has. >> the fed has backed off of their qe 12 months ago. mario draghi continues. i's statement yesterday was interesting. he gave the market most of what they wanted. he is still in a whatever it

takes mode. he did give them quantitative easing for six more months and included additional assets. it seemed like a very stimulative type of forward statement. had the defense that the amount wasn't increased. that perhaps the ecb is the last best in of quantitative easing and easing monetary policy. tom: this is an incredibly important question. how many billions of dollars to -- billions of dollars did you lose yesterday? have lots of calls. lots of calls on the five-year and 10-year. i made a lot of money. make a lot of money on those particular trades. that was bill gross speaking with tom keene and michael mckee. coming up, on the heels of news that uber will seek to point

billion dollars -- will seek to billion dollars in funding, their competition shifts into high gear. ♪

scarlet: mario draghi speaking at the economic club of new york carried the q&a section has begun. watch it customers can at their terminal. the headline is that the central bank's qe calibration was the right one. he says there are further tools the ecb can deploy if necessary to address the shortfall in

inflation. q&a sessiontor this for headlines and bring them to you. let's switch gears. its raceccelerating for global expansion. they're trying to raise as much as $2.1 billion in financing hiring the company at over $62 billion. their competition is shifting into high gear. 4 companies are forming an alliance to counter uber. joining us from san francisco is our start up reporter. let's start with the valuation part of the story. put it in context. uber looking for $2.1 billion in funding. uber is more valuable than publicly traded companies that we follow. the biggest tech company in san francisco. bigger than twitter and salesforce.

it is the biggest private technical the knee. i remember when it was raising at 3 billion and we thought, how is that possible? $62.5 billion is a totally different time. scarlet: have the reports of a slowdown in funding slowed down uber? have we seen evidence of that? anthanasios: they've already closed -- eric: they have already closed investment in this round. able to raise it. they have some of it locked down from zero price and tighter global. more aboutll us these rivals that are combining to form a four-way alliance. this speaks volumes of how successful uber relative to them. competinger is against didi in china, ola in

india, lyft in the u.s.. there saying we are teaming up a degree or traveling you can use our allied services in order to try to match the global power of uber. will they bemuch sharing? what will they be collaborating on? eric: that is an open question. it is early. whether it is carpooling or changes toological the service, as much as we take it for granted, it is a very new product. there is the opportunity to trade and learn lessons. scarlet: thank you for joining us. our bloomberg started up reporter joining us from san francisco on uber's evaluation of 62 point 5 billion dollars. another start up facing regulatory hurdles, airbnb.

at 6:00 p.m.t eastern and 3:00 p.m. eastern. here is mario draghi speaking at the economic club of new york in the q&a session. his latest headline is that he sees the specific limits to the ecb talents sheet size. one. says the right he added the ecb will deploy further stimulus tools if necessary, and they will reach their inflation goal of 2% without "more delay." bloomberg customers can watch this session live. ♪

scarlet: it is 1:00 p.m. in new york, welcome to bloomberg markets.

from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, good afternoon. here is what we are watching this hour. the price of a barrel of oil falls below $40 before a slight recovery. despite a global glut. the000 jobs added in november. does this all the security interest rate -- all but guarantee an interest rate increase? first, we head over to the markets desk, where matt miller has been checking up on everything. learning anything new when it comes to the ecb's plan. they plan to deploy more tools if necessary for stimulus. what are we seeing in the markets?

the markets.n of thea new highs session. 300 23 points as the gain on the dow jones industrial average. over0, and the high is 18,300 or so we were almost there a couple of days ago. the dow dropped or hundred 10 points in the last two days. but we are gaining back most of that right now. what we are seeing is movement in the fixed income side of things. mip are in the bloomberg, the shows that the current implied policy current is a little higher than historical curve. expectations are for an interest rate increase. it looks off visit when you -- it looks opposite when you look at the euro. scarlet: anything in the

commodities space? matt: absolutely. the dollar tree has been fascinating today. the euro for a moment showed for a briefh moment. the two-year yield, we have seen selloff -- debt selloff. as far as the currency market, what we're seeing that as far as the commodity markets, what we are seeing is a big move up in gold today. a troy ounce. a strong 2% move. production targets will be raised and cost will be cut down. and then the oil trade falling below $40 a barrel for a moment today. the opec news has really pushed oil down. we see crude right now it $40.13.

chesapeake as a big loser in the spread. scarlet: thank you for that recap of all of the different asset classes. let's check in now on the first word headlines. mark: there are reports that the woman who along with her husband is believed to have carried out this week's mass shooting in california pledged allegiance to islamic state. to reportedly used an alias post the pledge on facebook and the deleted it before attacks. she was a pakistani who came to the u.s. to marry this man. they were both killed by police. the united states government and an international nonprofit want a judge to reject efforts by the state of texas to stop

refugees from settling there. states do not have the legal authority block refugee replacement. there is a new study that indicates progress in the fight against pollution. according to yale university companies and cities have pledged to cut the house gases by a total that exceeds india's annual emissions. the pledges are being released today at the yuan climate conference in paris. donald trump is dominating his rivals in a new national poll. the cnnads with 36% in orc poll released today. his closest competitor is texas senator ted cruz with 16%. ben carson is now third with 14%. the only other candidate to finish in double digits is florida senator marco rubio with 12%. you can get more on these and other breaking stories 24 hours a day at the new bloomberg.com.

from the bloomberg first word desk i am mark crumpton. scarlet: stocks are strengthening with the dollar after today's jobs report which showed a better than forecasted increase in payrolls in november. this underscores confidence that the economy is strong enough for liftoff. joining us is the president of bianco research. he is calling for a december rate increase. also with this is the economic editor mike mckee. we will continue in a moment, but we need to check in with mike on these headlines from mario draghi who is speaking right now. this speech was scheduled a wildly go, and -- and while ago and he is coming back in talking through the communications. what did you learn from his comments? mike: his speech is fairly straightforward. it is in the q&a that we got the elephant in the room. the former bank of england

getrnor, asking did you what you were expecting and did you make a mistake? well --aid no, o explainnt on t they do not make policy for the markets today do what is best for the european markets and the eurozone. they had asked all of the economists of the central banks to put together the recommendations for policy. but was put together in a package and voted on by the governing council approved by a large majority. he said there was some dissent, but there is always defend. there was no real push back. this is what the governing a mosts felt was important thing, the best package at this point. he stressed that qe is here to stay and we can recalibrate if

necessary. but there was no conspiracy, there was no big push back. go as far as the vice president is that it is the markets you got this wrong. they do noted that anticipate bad reaction because we are doing the right thing. thelet: and we can retain flexibility to do more if needed. and one other thing he said was and grace can create a cyclical structure. that was the onus on europe and the elites to come up with fiscal solutions. mike: this has been going on for some time. also not just mario draghi janet yellen and ben bernanke. the fiscal authorities have done nothing over the past two years. they've taken away from growth with austerity programs. mario draghi says he needs help if we are going to get additional growth. yesterday his predecessor at the ecb says he think that my starting to be happen -- that might start to happen. scarlet: as mike was explaining,

mario draghi saying that the ecb does make policy for the euro zone. do you think that the fed makes policy for the market? the fed makesthat policy for the market, but i think that the ecb makes policy for the eurozone. it was just yesterday that mario that heas saying thought qe was a tremendous 66 as because it drove interest rates down. -- success because it drove interest rates down. yesterday he was making policy for the markets, but i guess today you are not. the fed does the same thing for the same reason. they measure their success i whether or not the markets behave in the way they want them to behave. qe is always about a market manipulation degrees in wealth effect or stimulus of lower interest rates. scarlet: let's back up a little bit and talk about the impact of the jobs report brady's they left off on december 16 is a done deal at this point. the focus that is on the past. th.

that thelen has said path will be gradual. is that what the market is in?ing and -- gradual path.n a fed will be gradual and we anticipate four rate hikes next year. that is the consensus thinking 1.5 will have a 1.25% to percent interest rate increase. but the market will go up half that rate. if a consensus of economists is correct and we get a rate hike in december and four rate hikes over the eight meetings in 2000 team, i do not think that sits well with the market at all. you can see dramatically higher interest rates and it will .other things the equity market this will bother the economy. you'll probably see a dramatically flat yield curve which is what the fed does not

want because that signals recession or makes lending more difficult. scarlet: you can see the 210 spread. if it is flattening, it changed a lot yesterday. it went to 133 basis points from about 123 just two days ago. a problem inhave determining is that a lot of money from your comes into the united because they cannot get it yields there. maybe they are wrong and we will not have 70 interest-rate increases because we had some flattening. but what happened over the last couple of weeks as we are starting to see economists say that the fed might be right and that the inflation likely rising faster because we are getting more weight gain and we are seeing what appears to be a bottom in oil prices. >> here is the issue with that. we have not had a rate hike

since before the crisis. if we go back to pre-crisis, what does it do? it trades one percentage point above the funds rate. that could get to two percentage points above if you have inflation or if you are he and inflation. so if it is going to move to 1% or 1.25% or 1.5% you can see the and the 10-year note at the same level. the dramatically flatter curve in one year. jeff celtic moves in interest rates especially if we and he get - rebound in inflation. scarlet: we are looking at an activity market that is rallying. -- equity market that is rallying. what do you make of this? level thate highest

the stock market has been since yesterday. it is going to wind up being very significant down week. less than 1% gain on the year. get used to it. we want to have 300 point moves and the fednow hike. this will be bought up and down. we will have a lot of volatility but it is a trend in the marketplace. it has been be entering sideways for most of the year. it will continue to do that. scarlet: moore sideways trading even as we see fairly sizable gains on the day. thank you very much. as we head to the break, take a look again at how the major indexes are performing. nine out of 10 are gaining and the dow has turned positive for the year. the only sector that is still in the red's energy as oil prices dipped below $40 a barrel. the dell reporting the best day in september 8.

it is not just the best day since yesterday, but since september 8. we will be back. ♪

scarlet: welcome back to bloomberg markets. matt miller gives us more context on this rally we are seeing inequities. the dow industrial up by 2%. matt: dow industrials having their best today in september. . ago,his a second

adding all of that back, the s&p almost up 2% rate we are getting away from the highs we have seen. 10 s&p sectors are up. the only thing we are really seeing fall today at all his energy stocks. let's take a look at some of those stocks that are moving as our as pushing the markets around today and as far as moving on individual stories. norfolk southern came out today and rejected the hostile bid from canadian pacific, unsolicited maybe a better way to say that. they are both down. norfolk southern gets about 15% of its volume on coal as well. the entire energy sector is being downgraded. downgraded by

merrill lynch on some of these concerns. down, union pacific down. rail is across the board. airlines on the other hand, as you are right expect -- might expect are doing very well. airlines fuel is one of the biggest expenses that they have . .alr 4% airlines up 4% for the day. a delta of 3% for the day. anyone who relies on fuel is going to do well in fuel gets cheaper and cheaper. scarlet: it is for the bloomberg business flash. a look at the biggest business stories right now. shares of chipotle dropping after word of new e. coli cases in three states. new illnesses were reported in illinois, maryland, and pennsylvania.

california,ases in minnesota, and ohio. the company is doing a deep cleaning of its restaurants, aging ingredients and food preparation procedures. new job cuts on the way for barclays. another 20% of investment banks, according to people with knowledge of the decisions. they were cutting 7000 of the roughly 20,000 jobs in the security unit. you can does get more business news at bloomberg.com. a quick programming reminder. specialto get the from the climate business conference, at 8:00 p.m. ♪

scarlet: welcome back to bloomberg markets. i am scarlet fu. single-family offices overseeing

the wealth of , and over half invest in private equity as well. in light of new to the limits on that front. let's check in with carol massar with the details. so much.ank you welcome on bloomberg tv this is the bloomberg advantage on bloomberg radio. joining me now is peggy collins, covering personal-finance at bloomberg news. family offices, we have seen a growth of these types of offices. them andrious about what they do. i'm also curious about the ceos who run these firms. what do they make? >> it is interesting because these family offices from the wealth of families with a lot of money. we are talking about 500 million dollars or more. many of them in the billions. they have their own staff to essentially run their family daily and financial affairs. but they tend to be very private. so as of until now we have not

learned that much about what they pay people and their compensation packages. the fidelity did a survey earlier this week where the median salary or a ceo at one of these firms if they are managing a billionaire's money is about $830,000. that is a pretty hefty salary. carol: that is hefty, but a little bit of perspective. we talk about fairies individuals on wall street are managing big funds for investor firms. they can earns millions and millions of dollars an. so is the slow play in comparison -- is this low pay in comparison? >> the ceo maybe managing assets in different countries at a family office is maybe serving an average of 20 family members. doing family travel, security is becoming a bigger issue, trust for the family.

and oftentimes there is callhing that they pay, managing family disputes or all the cousins to agree on an investment or way to move forward. and one of -- and a lot of the ceos will be playing multiple roles. carol: but there is a lot of competition for talent to run family offices, endowments and universities, manage financial firms. there is more competition for those who are running family offices, isn't there? >> absolutely. but as we see around the world, it has gotten increasingly competitive to hire the top talent to run your family's wealth or if they want people they can trust and also people who are very smart on

investments because these families want the money to last not only for their children, but for their grandchildren, and their great-grandchildren. and in order to do that you need to be successful in terms of wealth preservation and family governance. the fidelity survey said 830 thousand dollars for ceos of the largest single-family offices out there. that includes our voters, learn turn compensation, but you talk about how to convert to ceos of some of the largest companies that are out there and some of the highest paid executives. it pales in comparison to what they get paid. >> absolutely. if you look at the bloomberg pay index for ceos they are making it to the millions, the top ceos of the top companies at the u.s., in salary alone. not to mention their retirement packages, their pension, stock awards. but we are seeing some sophisticated compensation packages as talent and competition for talent is increasing.

increasing equity deals, long-term compensation, 401(k) type packages. there are some sense this cicada -- some sophisticated packages out there to attract those out of a corporation or another family office. carol: what is the experience? is it the same experience they want at a university to manage an endowment? >> intends to be a little bit different. they are looking at top investment professionals if they are running investments in house. it tends to be a lot of the accountant who were running the family offices and they're thinking about the whole picture in terms of trust but also tax efficiency and how to move assets from one generation to the next. carol: and they also get a percentage of the family business sometimes. >> that is rare. we are seeing that not too many families are giving the actual stop in their family-owned business or letting people use their private aircraft. not all the perks of being in the family of health. carol: but occasionally it happens to .

>> absolutely carol: thank you so much. scarlet: thank you so much. still ahead on bloomberg markets opec is leaking crude, maintaining production at current levels. what does this mean for current market and oil prices heading into next year? a massive drop with the price of wti dipping below $40, currently at $39.93. gold futures moving in the opposite direction. copper moving in the opposite direction on a strong jobs report. ♪

scarlet: welcome to bloomberg headquarters in new york. let's head to the markets desk

where matt miller has a check on some company movers, individual movers starting with transports. matt: first i'm going to look at the market in general. what a rally. i'm not going to say this is a santa claus rally because we have a jobs number that beat estimates. is adding 347 points. near session highs. at theto take a look major indexes and the closing highs that we have great we're ill a ways away from that. about 500 points from the dow jones industrial high. here it is divided into index groups are usually there is red on theen for companies energy is down. is green right

now and it is strongly green. take a look at financials. , bank of wells fargo america pretty addicting games right now. those are also very heavily weighted the stocks in the s&p. i will close on newmont mining. not only because old is rallying past $10.83 a troy ounce , but it's cost outlook is lower than estimated. margins are going to be higher. it is now up about 8%. scarlet: i'm trying to pull a chart of -- on my terminal that talks about the swing. this tracks the internet point -- intraday point swing. this was right around the week of thanksgiving. most 51 pointsat

in a session but now we have hit 364 points on top to bottom. today has been ultimate for most part. matt: you may that yourself? scarlet: it is a custom index. something you can only do on the terminal. the terminal. for but let's get you some headlines on the bloomberg for news this afternoon. mark crumpton has more. mark: thank you. mother of one of the attackers was not radical. she is beginning the legal process to adopt his six-month-old daughter, dropped off with relatives before the shooting began.

she sworeays allegiance to the head of islamic state, using a facebook alias and then deleted the posting before the shooting. a campaign for five people were killed in the attacks in paris opened.n re it has been shuttered since last month's attacks. they haven't filing flowers filing -- have been flowers outside. ao men were arrested in predawn raid in a circle hotel on wednesday. they were indicted by the u.s. justice department for taking millions of dollars in bribes. the bank of england mark globalr's backing a effort on companies and climate change. the goal is to bring greater transparency to the way companies disclose those risks

;./ . michael bloomberg will lead a panel on company reporting standards. tonight at 8:00 p.m. eight bloomberg special, changing climate changing business as bloomberg editor in chief discusses the locations of climate change on the financial markets with michael bloomberg and mark carney. that is right here on bloomberg television. you can get more on these and other breaking stories 24 hours a day at bloomberg.com. back to you. scarlet: thank you. we are keeping our eye on oil today, dipping below $40 a barrel. it was at $39.60 at its low. that would make its lowest since 2013. of

how much further does oil have to go? global drilling companies joins us from princeton. a year ago they said oil prices were tumbling because they decided not to do anything without the great it is not there. >> supposedly they lifted the quoted by about one million .5 .arrels -- 1.5 million barrels that is a nonsense here anyway. no one adheres to us, no one has the your for over a decade. everyone is going to produce an act independently, as they should in an environment right now. the market will essentially taking care of any producers who are on the higher end of the cost curve and producers on the end of the cost curve to the low will be producing them as we made. if nothing has changed

fundamentally, what has just in terms of market expectation? wererket expectations obviously pricing in some sort of restraint or cut, that is why you see a selloff today. but nothing is fundamentally changed. scarlet: we got a respective of armored wolf. seewe will continue to b more and more pressure from opec members and new opec members to produce and thatv is what will happen. we are bearish on oil. adding newey are members like indonesia which does not export oil they are so much focus on the know it -- on the no affect members. non-opec, and to

that is not how it happens in commodities, when you look at copper, iron ore, coal or steel. everyone will act independently. the u.s. are going to do whatever they can. they need to pay their bills. production is not going to drop off immediately. it will take maybe a year or two. scarlet: of course aransas going to increase output no matter what. an is going to increase output no matter what. what impact with this have on the super majors and the smaller companies that are struggling with overarching debt? >> obviously the super majors that have the balance sheets to

, they are preparing for longer, lower work environments. certainly they have different investor bases. not are really trying to cut the dividend for a smaller company. 2016.going to be a tough unfortunately, you may exit 2016 over by the same tune that you enter the year with. if maybe not until 2017 that we start to get some sort of real market power and market balance tightening. scarlet: what are you seeing on-demand side? up and demandmp

this year. we will finish around 1.6, 1.7 million barrels. it'll downshift to 1.2, one .3, that is what we're modeling for next year. i think a lot of that organic depends upon how much time china spends on this. the imbalance continues into 2016. thank you so much. scarlet: coming up in the next derails a, nor folk takeover bid. what will it take to the shareholders on board? rate increaserest in seven years. drinkers will have to pay more

for less. ♪

scarlet: welcome back to bloomberg markets. it is time for the bloomberg business flash, a look at some of the biggest is the stories in the news right now. morgan stanley has begun cutting its fixed income business in london. this is according to people familiar with the matter. the investment firm is muching a reduction as a us a quarter of its staff. drop inned a 40% bond revenue back in november. the worst oil market collapse

output.s its generate $5o billion in distributable cash flow next year that would be sufficient to support a dividend increase. and nike is defending a contract that it signed two years ago in brazil -- two decades ago in brazil. they had accused him of getting million-dollar a agreement. the committee says it was unaware of any kickbacks and it is cooperating with authorities. you can always get more on that story and other business news at bloomberg.com. we need to go back to the markets desk because matt miller is so excited about this market rally we have on our hands. gaining in all but two energy names.

chevron and i saw on. are: we are up, and if you long on this equity market becau you will have a great weed because even though we have not made it all back, we are almost there. there is a lot of trading going on. this is not a sleepy friday afternoon. dialedthe function in. it looks at volume in comparison to the last 20 days. here for example, this giant , an him is energy at 109% average of the last 20 days. people are trading energy a lot. vienna thisin morning is the reason for that. i would point out a couple individual stock stories that are interesting. i asked scarlet if she had a okte from barnes & noble -- no

she hasnes & noble, and not bought one for any of her children. they are having real problems. it has lost 1/5 of its value in one day. it is kind of a penny stock. down 21% today. barnes & noble had a disappointing outlook for sales, for revenue, and also real thatems selling its nook is weighing on the business. online sales were sluggish over the weekend. another stock that is having problems is to pull it -- is chipotle. nine states there have been issues of e. coli linked to chipotle. seven more cases, clearly not

good for the stock. 3% -- 21 onet third percent. scarlet: it reminds me of yum! brands with the food safety scare they had in china. i do not like either of them. matt: you do not like pizza hut at all? >scarlet: i like shake shack. matt: you do not like taco bell? scarlet: i'm chinese. i do not like to eat cheese. i am more into mexican food. erik: you have a whole different set of nationalities there. pizza hut is italian. a previewhank you for of our lunch grade and other stories we are watching, no deal for now folks southern. rejecting the canadian pacific's takeover bid, calling it grossly inadequate.

we want to bring in our candidate anchor in toronto. is anyone really surprised by this rejection? i think probably, unless you're living under a rock, no one was surprised by this outcome. praised him saying that this is really meant as a law offered to get the , a lowballrolling offer if you will. everyone expected this result and probably a sweetened offer to come through. the offer was about a 20% premium to the stock as it was back on november the sixth. whatpremium would be it would take to get this to go through. the question is how quickly this

would filter through the shareholders at no. there. will be pressure to come up with a concise plan about how they would find efficiencies and offer shareholder value beyond whatever initial rolling deals could come through the door. ,hat plan was delivered today and this toxin little bit about revenue growth and getting the operating ratio down. forlet: a couple of things hunter harrison to consider. he has been on a campaign to create this transcontinental railroad. does this really setback that effort? pamela: it probably does not any more than it was already an obstacle because of regulatory hurdles in the first place. as we know cfx was something , to cp had taken a look at see if they could get things through. thinking pushed aside,

relative tory hurdles -- regulatory hurdles were not going to improve. this would be an 18 month decision. a lot of room for stock erosion in that time. it could be an argument for why he shareholders do not want to deal with something that would take so long. but a big vision, coast-to-coast vision, a north american railroad is what what hunter harrison wants to see as part of the u.s.. scarlet: they have done a heightened profile as of late. when regulators look differently on this merger proposal because of that? about: if you go back nine months there was a discussion that because crude by rail was such a big form of delivery that in fact maybe there were more channels than needed to be open up to create less congestion and get oil to market. slowinge been hit by

energy prices, energy volumes, a re discussion. it may even out, but there has been a discussion that it is a new world. scarlet: thank you so much. current uste and from toronto. coming up on bloomberg markets but today's job report strengthens janet yellen case for liftoff. there is a trade that could benefit among higher rates. ♪

scarlet: welcome back to bloomberg markets. some of the hottest exchange rates of the year have hit a rough patch. but with a rate increase on the

table could they sustain their inflows? we have a weekly discussion. this week was all about the crowded trade going long the dollar and short the euro. that fell apart earlier this week. talk to us about the etf that really capitalize on that trade. >> what we saw scared is a little bit. it could start not working for a long time. scarlet: it got too crowded. >> it did. the flows and eps showed us this. ,t the beginning of the year they had this crowded central bank trade that they capitalized on. they made up 1% of assets. they have taken it 25%, 20 billion in a year. it is the number one flow of the year, $15 billion in one year. it goes long on stock and short

the euro. if you look at it the reason it is crowded is because it is working so well. this is up 8% on returns. anyone that does not hedge is down 4% rate it is a 24% differential over the past two years. it is all about converting gains into dollars. if that were to unwind it would be questionable how much would stay. there's this. that thinks it has been introduced to a lot of wires and resell investors that should have their currencies because everyone is long in dollars, especially their investment. i do think, i call them central-bank surf boards, i think when the wave winds down and peters out, people will jump off. scarlet: is there any need to mimic what you just said? >> sure. actually has a smart

beta tilt that goes long on exporters. they try to screen exporting stocks that they help in that trade. deutsche bank has a whole series that are competitors and ishares. the go straight market cap, they do not tilt it to anything. scarlet: that is a dbef? >> that is. it is also europe plus japan. in . combo.e scarlet: the next central-bank trade is december 3. , they havetrade ends a line of products ready for you to play the next trade. rates rising. we have about a dozen and a half hedged trades.

what we have here is a similar thing. , and a shortonds treasury futures. essentially a limited interest rate risk and we have had pockets of time and windows are we have seen rates rise, and these things outperform. you see a performance review will see flows. these will be the next big thing , if we see rates rising. but still we have had 18 false alarms in the last five years. scarlet: a good point. we hope that we were going to -- we thought we were going to see liftoff earlier in the year and it did not happen. thank you so much. as we had to break -- head to trump speaks to all due respect at 5:00 p.m. ♪

welcome to bloomberg markets.

from bloomberg world headquarters, good afternoon. i am david gura. the u.s. economy showing signs of strength, adding more jobs than forecast in november. oil plunging. opec holds off on setting an official output target. drinkers areer trying to stop the megamerger of sab miller and another company, saying it will leave them paying more for lower quality. matt miller has the latest from the markets desk. have a rally on our hands but not enough to make it for losses we had on wednesday and thursday. death of 300 wi-fi points in the dow jones industrial average. the us of a 500 of 1.9%.