"what'd you miss?" u.s. stocks soaring, down a positive for the year. joe: the question is "what'd you miss?" data, allemployment eyes turned to the federal reserve for lift off this month. joe: opec offers no hope for a bottom with its latest move. crisis, will impeachment proceedings give the market a rebound? we begin with the markets. what a rally. you have the jobs report, stronger than expected. midday, mario draghi was speaking in new york and set the ecb is open to further stimulus after a day in which he underwhelmed the market. joe: he clearly didn't deliver

enough. today, he did not make wild promises, but said they are still committed to fighting inflation. the market seem to like that. the big event was the jobs report. time,s were wildly at the but rallied quickly after that data. over 200,000 jobs created. to see volume fall off a little bit on big up days but volume was stronger than anticipated or typical. s&p 500, 40% above the 10 day average. in to see that kind of big volume. joe: it is a cliché. another important jobs report, but this was critical. up, somethe fed coming concerns about the data, so everyone was paying attention.

i think this number i'm looking at might help explain why we had this huge rally. average hourly earnings change year over year, it ticked down a little bit. last month we got a nice spike. to 2.3%. down it's elevated, but did not take off. jobsakeaway was solid report, not much uncertainty about december, but not so strong we will have to reevaluate the gradual hike of wages. today's report did not discourage the gradual fed rate hike. i just said as long as it is in line, markets will like it. >> you can take a victory lap. i have my eye on a custom index for the dow jones industrial average, the intraday point

move. how many points from peak to trough. the low is the day after thanksgiving. since then, the point swings have been picking up. today, 383 points from the bottom of the day to the top of the day, a pretty big move, bringing us back to the highest sense october 2. that is notable. joe: it shows how extraordinary the day was. i want to look at 10 year yields. rally,expect a strong you expect to see yields jump up as people sell bonds. that did not happen today. there was some buying of longer-term treasuries. it might be the same story that the fed is probably going to hike come of it nothing that signals higher yields or short-term rates in the future. we had that weird day yesterday

where people sold stocks. today they bought stocks and treasuries. >> you can see all these charts and more on twitter. major gains in the market today following a strong jobs report and mario draghi's assurance there will be added stimulus if needed. joe: joining us now is the chief u.s. economist at barclays. thank you for joining us. is it all clear? >> in december, yes. the jobs report was unequivocally clear that payroll growth has returned to where it was pre-august volatility, which would have been over 200,000 per month, so this number suggests that we made up some of the shortfalls in august and september with upward revisions of private sector payroll growth , now estimated at over 300,000 in october. the number today says we should expect solid gains going forward. joe: are you surprised that were still seeing these 200 plus

reports this far into recovery. i know of economists say we could go down to 150 or 100 and it would still be enough. >> if you look at long-term demographic trends, participation rates, you only need 75,000 jobs a month to keep the unemployment rates steady. weree not surprised that continuing to see job growth, and we expect to see somewhere between 175,000 and 200,000 per month over the next year. we think we will get more of the same as front end rates move higher. >> it was because of overseas events and august and september and was the fed justified in holding off? >> i think so, yes. we were comfortable with earlier this year, but we think they were right away. in the past, these volatile events push firms into neutral. they don't hire, but they don't fire. so we tread water. .t played out

i think they were fined to wait. i think the data shows that the runway is clear. it is a virtual certainty that they move in december. >> janet yellen has said the path will be gradual, measured, pick your word. is the market pricing in a gradual or aggressive path? >> i think the market is gradual relative to the fed's path. fed's paththe roughly 100 basis points per year, market is like 50. we are sitting at 75. i think the economy will be strong enough to support in the 75-100 range, and if we get one of these shocks again for some soft prints in inflation, they were likely skip a hike. joe: i remember after last month's job report when we got

that two and a half percent job, -- tworted seeing people and a half percent jump, you started seeing people that maybe we will take off a little. you think that inflation will have an upward surprise? >> not in 2016. in 2016, you will still have a lot of pass-through of a strong dollar. a dollar move takes eight full quarters to move to the economy. >> how far are we in now? >> four or five quarters in from the surge, but it started moving again it year. >> does it start again at zero again? >> there is still a lot of pass-through ahead. our view is wage growth will accelerate to 3% in 2016, 3 .5% in 2017. the average hourly was. partly

partly due to was calendar fax. -- effects. the goldilocks scenario you describe can carry on longer, more like 2017 when a wage inflation story could become more paramount, but we are not there yet. >> earnings year-over-year could be sustained in today's report. what about job growth? >> a little disappointing. temporary help is often a sign of future hiring, and it was off. sometimes it is converted to full-time help. that was down 12,000 on the month. we had information down a bit. those were the two segments that were week. it was a little soft, but not worrisome. i don't think we expect 46,000 per month in construction to persist. joe: going into this week and

for the last month or two, everything was about long dollar , divergence between the fed and euro, then the ecb seemed to throw a monkey wrench in that. was that a blip and we will resume the trend. ? >> i think the trajectory is still the same. blip, butlify it as a it will take time to play out. by that i mean you need the fed to do its part, and the ecb to do its part, and it may not be until the fed moves again, when market expectations price in something stronger that the dollar could get more upward momentum. in the near term, probably not. in the first quarter towards the end of it and labor markets all the and activity holds up, you might see more. >> you are sticking with desperate we will be right back. we will discuss the jobs report, including what the ecb's mario

draghi has said. ♪

>> do not miss it republican presidential candidate ted cruz will join the "what'd you miss?" crew 5:00 p.m. eastern time. first word news. >> the fbi says it is officially investigating the california mass shooting as terrorism.

signs ofers showed radicalization, but were not part of a terrorist cell. their attempt to destroy evidence, including cell phones and throwing them in the trash. officials continue to investigate the case to understand the motivations of the shooters and whether they were planning more attacks. meanwhile, u.s. law enforcement official says that the wife of one suspect pledged allegiance to a islamic state and used an alias to post the pledge on facebook and then deleted it as the attacks were underway. we get word from a facebook executive ho says the online post praising the terror group happened minutes into the attacks. belgian authorities are searching for two new suspects in the paris attacks. both apparently used fake id cards, traveling in a mercedes with another suspect.

one of the think id cards was used to send a money order to one suspect killed in the police raid in the paris suburb last month. bank of england governor mark carney is backing a global effort on companies and climate change to bring greater transparency to the way companies disclose the risks. michael bloomberg will lead a panel on voluntary company reporting standards. bloomberg is the founder and majority owner of bloomberg lp, the parent company of bloomberg news. at 8:00 and 11:00 p.m. new york time, a bloomberg special, changing climate, changing business. editor in chief discuss the implications of climate change on the financial markets. he will be joined by mike bloomberg and fsb chair market carney here on bloomberg television. -- mark carney here on bloomberg television. you can get more on it for hours a day on bloomberg.com. back to you. >> thank you.

we are back with the chief u.s. economist at barclays. on the heels of a solid job report, stocks took off today, s&p 500 posing the biggest gain in three months. you said the december liftoff is a sure thing. what does that mean for equities? >> equities will have trouble rising on a pe multiple basis. that things get more expensive. what you need to see is earnings growth. economy isthe u.s. still a two track economy, domestic side doing well, trade, manufacturing, energy activity will be soft. modest profit growth, something on the order of 6% for earnings growth. that would translate into four-6% growth on the s&p. it is a modest earnings growth outlook that says stocks can very wayher, but

should with a high end of normal , it will be tough to get multiple expansion. joe: we have obviously had volatility and we have pretty much hit all-time highs, what are the big economic risks on the landscape that investors should be aware of? >> the major risk for the u.s. is the consumer doesn't hold up. the outlook for activity, whether we can grow given weakness abroad, whether the strong dollar plays in, it is on the consumer. if you are worried about equities, how high they can go, fed can raise rates, consumption is durable, we think it will, but that is the main risk. we don't think that risk would come from an internal source. it would be an external shock that comes into the u.s. the cause of the consumer to take a step back. >> are we measuring consumption the right way? people aren't buying stuff the way they used to.

>> we are measuring it the best that we can. we actually don't look a lot at retail sales for a signal. we prefer to look at auto sales. they are durable purchases and tell us whether the consumer is comfortable with their employment and income prospects, and with auto sales hitting record highs in the recovery, it suggests the consumer is comfortable. said you are not too worried about the domestic situation, but the possibility of external shock when you look around the world, eurozone, ongoing concerns about china, how is the world looking? >> it does not look tremendously strong. it's hard to point where growth is accelerating. if the ecb is underwhelming, the outlook does not get stronger. it is a mediocre outlook at best globally. this week we have taken down growth forecasts in japan, india, brazil, left them

unchanged in europe, and a below consensus in china. it is not a solid growth outlook globally. the u.s. is the one bright spot at 2.5%. the marketg about reaction i found interesting is that if mario draghi over delivered on stimulus yesterday, we might have seen a dramatic strengthening in the dollar. janet yellen and the fed clearly do not want that. do you think the federal reserve and the ecb may have coordinated? >> i think they talk, but i don't think they coordinated this. the viewer central bankers as you take care of your shop and i would take care of mine. the ecb eases, the easier it is for the fed to go because it reduces downside risks. there is communication, but i don't think this was coordinated. when the chair talks about the dollar it is because everywhere else is weak and the u.s. can only diverge at a certain pace, and the more monetary policy the

verges and economies demurrage, the dollar is likely to strengthen, so they have to watch that. remember after the september fed meeting it was all this talk about the fed being so confusing and missed communicating, then the market came back and people stopped talking about that. do you think that is the same with what happened with the ecb, where it is basically like something happen and people freak out, but we will forget this meeting? >> these are committees. people, and leading committees means you have to take into account personalities and draghi, but maybe mario did not feel like he had enough consensus to do more. it does not mean that they can't. that is what he was trying to say today. it is not impossible to recover that miss messaging a bit. >> what are investors missing, not stressing, not assessing over that they should be?

>> in my travels and conversations with client i find that the idea that the u.s. consumer and economy can grow despite increases in rates and the dollar, i think that is a difficult sell. there is a wall of worry out there somewhere that we have to overcome. assets is the case, risk can still do well as long as the fed is moving gradually. inside the u.s., we are more comfortable with that view. there a close economy and dollar does not impact is much, but overseas, that is the big sticking point. >> thank you very much. interesting take. stocks were not the only place where we saw moves today. opec's market rattled by non-decision to maintain production. the fall out in oil, dipping below $40 a barrel. that is next. ♪

>> lie and scarlet fu. "what'd you miss?" breaking news from chipotle to -- 8% to percent 11%. , three ini cases addition to what it had seen in other states. joe: looking at the longer-term chart, they been getting crushed lately. the headlines get worse. >> comparable sales down 6%,

continuing down for the fourth quarter. the stock falling in after hours trading. joe: they are doing a buyback as well, but not helping much. --another security op in dropping is oil. the group's president says it will pump 31.5 million barrels a day. minister discussed the lack of a limit. phone is theom global head of energy strategy at citibank. joe: thank you for joining. what did you make of the latest opec meeting. we had a lot of talking heads, disagreement within the organization. what is your take away? >> it was a total nonevent and clear from the beginning.

opec is not a group of equals. they are that diva in the room, saudi arabia, and they went in with the decision made. they stuck to their guns and there was not much to talk about. >> we talk about opec as a cartel. is it still a cartel? cartel if it is a price maker, and opec used to make up half the market, but now produces a little over 30 million barrels a day in a $90 million -- 90 million barrel market. it is ultimately a price taker these days. they say saudi arabia and the big producers are trying to produce as much as possible and to some extent tried the u.s. shale players out of business to win the war of attrition rather than cut prices. are they succeeding?

>> shale production is coming down. the problem for the saudi's is twofold. one is the rest of non-opec production is doing fine so far. it might start to suffer next year. that is their expectations. we have seen hefty capital expenditure cuts. production except for u.s. shale is doing great. you can't hang a victory hat on u.s. shale production going down. if prices recover, so will shale, and they will go up more quickly than they went down. >> will opec strategy pay off in the long run? will it screen out those producers? >> there are two broad scenarios over the next few years. -- middlet opec eastern and opec members wrapup come pass the with expansions. -- ramp up capacity with their

expansions. they all have major expansion plans that their moving forward with. if they carry that out, either you see prices they low forever or you see opec with a bigger market share having a greater capacity to then move the market if they so choose. if they don't ramp up, and historically they have not good -- have not done a good job of so when you look towards 2017 and 2018 you hit an air pocket and get a more bullish market. you very much for joining us and breaking down this opec meeting. >> a non-event he called it. say itup, brazil bears is too soon to celebrate the impeachment of the president. we explain after the break. ♪ sure, tv has evolved over the years.

it's gotten squarer. brighter. bigger. it's gotten thinner. even curvier.

but what's next? for all binge watchers. movie geeks. sports freaks. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. scarlet: that is a beautiful shot of new york. i am scarlet fu. "what'd you miss?" the mass shooting in san bernardino california earlier this week was an act of terror. invited landlord reporters into the town house rented by the attackers. they found a crib, toys, a heild's look of the koran.

the couple had a six-month-old daughter. he and his wife stockpiled 12 pipe bombs, tools to make more explosives, and over 4500 rounds of ammunition at the home. say the shooters showed signs of radicalization, but did not appear to be part of a terrorist cell. 16 people killed and three others wounded after a firebomb attack at a small nightclub in , egypt. police are searching for two suspects who allegedly carried out the attack because they were previously denied entry into the club. there is a new study that indicates progress is being made in the fight against pollution. according to yale university, companies and cities have pledged to cut been house gases by a total that exceeds india's annual emissions. the pledges are being released today at the united nations climate conference in paris. you can get more on these and other breaking stories 24 hours a day at the new bloomberg.com.

i am mark crumpton. back to you. scarlet: thank you. let's get a quick recap on u.s. markets. a rally for the dow, 370 points. butave a solid jobs report, also mario draghi of the ecb saying they are open to further stimulus. the dow is now up for the year. joe: this huge week, tons of data, big events, and the market was flat. it's kind of like it never happened. scarlet: but if you want to look at one stock moving, chipotle tumbling. setting at $300 million stock buyback, not enough to take the sting from disappointing comps. comparable sales down a percent to 11%.- 8% those e. coli cases have spread

to new states. joe: i just assumed people would ignore the e carlyle -- e. coli stuff, but maybe not. reminds me about yum! brands having difficulties with food safety issues in china. dive -- mip starting? joe: i thought you were. scarlet: let's go with me. what i have here is the euro, but the risk reversal. at the line goes up, using the ratio of calls increasing puts. they are the least bearish since july, although we see a little correction here today. we have this remarkable move staging itshe euro biggest rally since may. joe: people were talking about

how traded -- crowded that trade was. i want to dive into the terminal to talk about the german yield curve today versus one week ago. last week, the yield curve was negative out to seven years. if you bought a german government fraud up to seven years, you are paying the government to borrow money. today, it's only up to five years. the brighter green line is this week. the yellow line is last week. the whole curve moves to the laugh as a result of the last two days with mario draghi not giving as much easing as people expected. scarlet: although he does hold the option to do more. joe: totally right. scarlet: let's move to the crisis in brazil, proceedings still under way for impeachment of the president. this will be a theme for weeks to come. with this is j.p. morgan's latin

america chief investment strategist. give us your assessment. how bad will it get? >> it will be a while before brazil its bottom. on top of what was a deep coming theisis economy will contract 3.5% this year, and people are looking at 2% contraction next year. on top of that, ratings downgrade, now you add a layer of political uncertainty. even though this case may not be to anywhere, the idea is that this will drag the political system for several weeks, if not months before anything comes to a head. joe: let's say magically all the political stuff in corruption scandals went away, then you have to address the economic crisis. what kind of policy levers does brazil need at this point to turn the economy around? >> brazil unlike many other

countries in emerging markets and latin america, it is clear what it has to do, as significant fiscal adjustment, reducing the size of government. you heard brazil operates with high interest rates. why? the weight of policy always falls on the monetary. the fiscal is very relaxed. you need to do structural reforms. the political will has not been there for a long time. scarlet: is adjustment possible without stoking massive unrest? >> some is possible. we have seen a little bit of that this year. out being more fiscally prudent, but there is always a trade-off. scarlet: it doesn't matter who is in charge. these are structural problems.

it doesn't matter in terms of the willingness. there has not been for a while for the last five years much of a willingness to do anything. beyond the size of government, you say they need structural reforms, that brazil has let itself get uncompetitive versus other latin american economies in terms of wages, productivity, not keeping up to wages. laws andthe regulations in place that caused brazil to become so out of whack on that? >> a lot has to do with the cost of doing business in brazil. the brazil cost, you buy an iphone and it costs 10 times what it costs in the united states. there are a lot of barriers, tariffs, inefficiencies to go around. that is tied into the fact you have a large public sector that needs to feed off of that.

there is a very heavy regulatory environment. i don't expect there will be structural reforms soon. i think that is a medium-term issue, containing the deterioration and hopefully for the economy to hit bottom. we still have not hit bottom in brazil. that is key. llsrlet: goldman sachs ca it an outright depression. is that correct. >> it is deep and severe. scarlet: brazil is desperate to control,lation under below 10%. what does it have to do to get there? interest-rate increases? fiscal,hings, one the and the other thing is that everything is indexed in brazil. that is the only way. .ou need to do the fiscal thing

that is the achilles heel. j.p. morgan private bank, you will be sticking with us to discuss emerging markets and compare them to developing markets, next. ♪

scarlet: i am scarlet fu. "what'd you miss?" it is time for the bloomberg business flash. falling inhipotle extended trading after it rescinded the 2016 forecast because of an e. coli outbreak. after it wasas 20%

reported. same-store sales expected to be down 8% to 11% this quarter. a 300lso announced million dollars stock buyback to reassure investors. more job cuts on the way at barclays. cut another 20% of investment bank staff according to people with knowledge of the decision. they were already cutting 7000 of the 20,000 jobs in the securities unit. bernie made also victims getting an early holiday treat. they begin sending out a total of $1.2 billion in recovered funds. this marks the biggest payout and more than three years. it comes seven years after his arrest and a $17.5 billion ponzi scheme. paleounders of american a -- apparel made try to buy the company out of bankruptcy. the ceo was fired

over allegations of misconduct. that is your bloomberg business flash. back with us, jp morgan's private bank latin american chief investment strategist. joe: we were talking about the crisis in brazil before the break, but this was a year of tremendous concern about all emerging markets. going into next year, will the story changed at all? >> the story will change at the margins, maybe even in the first the, but by the end of middle of the year, we could be in a better situation. next year could be the year when people start coming back to emerging markets, interesting opportunities. there is a lot of negative news priced into emerging markets these days. markets are looking for the change in the next set of news, and it could begin to be better. scarlet: there is a stampede out

of emerging markets, certainly if you look at that and equity funds. retailers ran for the exits. institutional investors did not leave the markets. >> that is an interesting story. people are looking at the institutional markets as a long-term story. we have seen is kind of cycles where emerging markets go into a deep funk and then come back, late 1990's and all that. the reality is that it comes back. the retail guys flew out quickly around the time of the taper tantrum. the rest of the market has held up really well. ansome point, you could have exit of institutional money, but it has not happened. that is a good sign. scarlet: the worst is over?

we won't see that stampede? hard have seen some knocks, and the asset class has held up pretty well. one of the things that we have not seen in emerging markets that people were concerned about is something like an acute crisis, a sovereign debt crisis, major banking crisis. what is the reason for that? >> it is exchange-rate taxability. there are a lot of lessons learned in the pass in the sense that you had a lot of debt overhangs, sovereign debt, situations where the balance sheet of the countries were not good. you had low reserves. one of the bright spots of having gone through the last 10 years of emerging markets is that countries all have high levels of reserves, china, brazil, mexico, and that is a mitigating factor.

we will not see sovereign debt crisis, except very specific situations, chronic situations. we will not see systemic. this is different. here you will have stress in the financial sector, and the reason i say that is because one of the unintended consequences of constant -- of quantitative easing is that a lot of capital went into emerging markets, and that led to pockets of overleveraged and so forth. as capital moves out, and it may not be a mass exodus, but as it moves out, you get a credit squeeze which will manifest itself in the banking sector. that is the story this time around. it is less sovereign debt. sovereign should hold up pretty well. scarlet: and that includes china where we have seen a buildup in credit and debt? china,e are pockets in russia, and brazil, but in the

corporate sector -- the banks were the intermediaries. citibankthing that said is that the growth model for emerging markets is broken. you don't have this rush of money, the commodities boom, china's consumer -- i get that we may be near a bottom, but where is the growth? >> i would not say the model is broken. i would say it is in need of repair. latin america is a perfect example. latin america fed on the commodity boom, but did not save for a rainy day, so you are seeing the current situation. that doesn't mean it is a sovereign debt crisis. you are destined for a few years of low growth, some countries were sent others, but it is not the end of the world. you have to retool and do the structural reforms. you have to somewhat reinvent yourself so you have the ability

to attract capital again. that takes some time and political will. it's not going to be overnight. scarlet: the imf or scripture and worked for asia. we have not seen a repeat of a crisis in those countries. will it work for latin america? >> i would not say latin america follows the same model as asia. asia is a high savings the society. mexico is the closest thing to an asian economy. most of south america is a commodity-producing region. i don't think it is the same model. it would take different kinds of policies to get out. joe: thank you very much for joining us. >> my pleasure. scarlet: puerto rico is said to have its day in court. we have details ahead on "what'd you miss?"

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scarlet: coming up on bloomberg television. yes, that's him. the donald. donald trump joins with all due respect. i am scarlet fu. "what'd you miss?" a victory for puerto rico. the supreme court agreed to hear a case regarding restructuring of obligations. kate smith joins us. this is significant. it is important. puerto rico came up with their

own version of the bankruptcy code back in july 2014, the recovery act. they wanted to be able to restructure, which is a code word for bankruptcy, right? so they wanted to be able to restructure those debts, highly levered, and they need to do that. in february 2015, an appellate court said that is in direct violation of federal law, because federal law says puerto rican debt cannot be impaired. the bankruptcyst code. so now the u.s. supreme court will hear this. this is a huge move and means there is disagreement as to why they were left out of the bankruptcy code to begin with. there are people who are happy new. joe: what is puerto rico's argument that -- what is the counter argument? >> people just think it was left out. this is back in 1984. there was some kind of law.

it just said puerto rico can't file for bankruptcy. and nobody knows why. it is so interesting. i am talking to an attorney on this case and he says there is no reason to think this. we can't figure it out. there is no precedent to say this. it is interesting. scarlet: if it was an oversight, what are the obstacles to being able to do this? >> you have investors who say, i bought this. 8% yield forn this. they are saying that if i had known you could file for bankruptcy, i would never have taken this for a percent. it would have been way higher. you can go back and change the bond document. that is the argument. about --re talking let's look at the bonds here.

it was back in december when they collapsed. they sort of stabilize and drifted up a little higher, so what has been the thinking as the bond value has creeped up a little bit? at july. look it plummeted down because the governor came out and said that they think this is unpayable. that's a lesson you want to hear as you open up the new york times. it really took a tumble. ,his is that slow climb you see people feeling it out. is thatinteresting here each bigger move you saw after that major drop-off in july has nothing to do with their finances. it has nothing to do with the credit fundamentals of puerto rico. it has to do with politics. it has to do with their willingness to pay that debt. scarlet: the ability to pay is not in question? >> the ability to pay is in question. the willingness is not.

hedge funds think there is this untapped wealth of resources that puerto rico can turn around and become the next destination and they will be absolutely fine. then there's the other side saying that if that was the case, we would have seen it by now. is in question, but the willingness is not. the willingness goes away as soon as the governor says it is unpayable. joe: kate smith a bloomberg news, i think we will be talking about the story for a while. thanks for explaining it to us. scarlet: we will be bright back with what you need to know next week. ♪

scarlet: i scarlet fu. "what'd you miss?" next week is a huge week for china data. balance, andtrade possibly foreign direct investment as early as monday night. tuesday night, inflation rates on the consumer and wholesale level. followed by monetary data for november possibly wednesday night. joe: another thing you don't want to miss is that sunday is the first round of regional french elections. everybody will be watching it for one reason, to see how well the extreme right, anti-immigration party, national front, how they do. they have pulled well. the attack in paris was seen as feeling the message. polled well. scarlet: we will be discussing the implications of climate change on the financial markets

with mike bloomberg and mark carney. that comes up tonight at 8:00 p.m. and 11 car p.m. eastern time. that does it for "what'd you miss?" thank you for watching. we will see back

mark: i mark halperin. john: i am john heilemann. "with all due respect," we are deflategate,e, cover-up -- but coldplay? now you have gone too far. john: happy national cookie day, sports fans. a pair of tremendous interviews with front-runner donald trump and second-place runner ted cruz. first, a new national cnn poll shows mr. trump is becoming king