tv Bloomberg Best Bloomberg December 4, 2015 9:00pm-10:01pm EST
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>> coming up, the story that shaped the week in business around the world. inm a landmark change china's currency status, we have the bottom line on the top loadable -- top global headlines. and we hear some big names in politics and business speak their mind. the u.s. tax system is noncompetitive in a global sense. >> all that and more. this is bloomberg best.
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hello. i'm betty liu. this is bloomberg best. begin with a day by day review of the week's top stories. monday when the imf welcome the currency. >> it is a recognition of the significant reforms which have been conducted, of the opening up of the chinese economy, of , morenancial market-driven principles that are being used by the chinese authorities going forward. >> short-term it doesn't mean a lot. to put things in perspective,
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$318 billion. that is roughly 6% of the daily trading volume in total foreign exchange. >> just 6%. gdp,d one third of global less than 1% of total trade. it is a drop in the bucket. it is much more of a psychological effect. >> is that significant? don't think so. it is symbolically important for china because to me it is an officially an endorsement of what china has achieved in terms of financial market. ad a formal recognition of very important role played by china in terms of global trade. betty: michael plath, the founder of bluecrest capital, currently running a billion dollars, made an official
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announcement, they will be returning all client money. he will instead focus on managing his own wealth and that of his partners. i want to bring in the whole team here. let's take you back three years. fast-forward. >> they made it one of the larger funds. i think it is a sign of the big change that we have seen in the capital markets. cutting as much as a quarter of the fixed income jobs. been hiring people from that world. things have changed a lot. >> what i am wondering, tim, you are a structuring guy. hedge funds. do you perceive the same anxieties that clearly michael platt is feeling?
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>> i don't think you can say everyone feels this way or that way but big on wall street is not as popular as it used to be. all of these people are stuck in a regulatory buying. it is a tough market to be investing. say i wouldple rather take that money, invest the way i want to, not talk to lps or all over the world trying to get money and just enjoy the active investing and make as much money for themselves. >> we would likely end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting both of our goals. such an abrupt tightening would risk disrupting financial markets, and perhaps even inadvertently push the economy into recession. quite she came out and said the fed is ready to move the economy
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, ready for a rate increase. we have a strong enough economy in terms of job creation and in terms that we should get faster inflation once we star stop seeing the downward pressure from oil prices. it should fade in 2016. she warned if they wait too long we could see market disruptions, bubbles form. the fact, it was all but guarantee that unless something happens between now and the 16th of december they will raise rates. >> 74% chance probability of a move there. >> that could go up significantly. people will say this is going to happen. they are leaving wiggle room. the fed has convinced the market at this point that a rate increase is coming. they have got what they wanted and the need to keep them there for the next two days. >> we have to do more.
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let me say this very clearly. we are doing more because it works. not because it fails. we want to consolidate something that is a success. >> we got the cut, we got the extension. we do get the expansion. we need to add in market technical. we saw a rally leading into this. seeing that reverse, a lot of profit-taking. the expectations around mario draghi are no different from the expectations we often see from the fomc and often disappoint. we have to factor in the trading happening, not necessarily long-term. >> there is a big squeeze happening here. factor in the ecb credibility. they guided these markets to expect something big. he told us to look at three things on the asset purchase program. pool,ave widen the asset
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they have extended the generation. on the size of the purchase program, they did nothing. for the market that is a big disappointment. won 10 in a couple of weeks. move, that isoint significant. disappointed, the top one for a lot of people will be and undered delivered. >> we are 30 seconds away from the jobs numbers. >> i was talking about how we have become a service-based economy. we have the same number of manufacturing jobs today as 1941. we saw a decline in the payroll number in august and september. this number is big. what is it?
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>> 211,000. that was the number for last month. 5.7 percent. where do those gains come from? construction jobs rising the most since january 2014. care, and000 health food services and retail strong. >> for more, we're here with peter. tell us what you are focused on. broad measurethe of under and climate in the economy. discourage workers, people working part-time. people with jobs would like to work more. it is a broadest measure of slack in the labor market. more slack actually. we were happy when the number got back under 10%.
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in november it ticked up from 9.8 to 9.9%. 5%, we want pay attention to that, but the numbers that show the back in 2004, 2 thousand five, we were at 8%. then it trended very nicely down. we are still above the levels of slack we had before the recession. the labor market has not completely healed. >> we will dig deeper into the impact of the announcement and more reaction to the u.s. jobs report as bloomberg best continues.
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guest: welcome back to bloomberg best. it remains to be seen how the ecb's interest rate, decision, and economic numbers will affect the market. this week we discussed the possibilities. all the different measures the ecb announced what was the most significant? >> it was not the thing that they announce, it was the thing they didn't announce. an additional amount of bond buying each month.
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they are extending stimulus by six month. they will buy a larger told a number of bonds. markets were really focused on that, thinking that you to be done to get the stimulus they are looking for. a lot of people were betting you a weaker euro. as the euro goes up by significant amount over 108 on this news, it is at 105 when the press conference started. a lot of disappointment, super mario does his first. into this meeting they have been consistent about telegraphing. >> that is a very interesting question.
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they are 19 countries now in the eurozone. too many to have everybody vote. they are taking turns. they rotate the voters. they do it on a meeting by meeting basis. unlike the fed which does on a year-by-year basis. the germans were allies. been less enthusiastic about stimulus and they may have mario draghi. push may have been pushe back as part of a compromise to do with a dead, cutting the deposit rate should have some effect. and extending stimulus should have some affect. he didn't get as much as he would want. >> they cut it by 10 basis points. clarity right now, whether the ecb could cut that once again in the future.
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will the have an effect? on a theory,king not reality. the fed pays banks to leave money at the fed. they are charging banks with the ecb. they will make the banks take the money away and push it out into the economy and lend it. gains in not see lensing. have more pressure and squeeze profit margins. they will have to do something. the bond are seeing market, traders keep bedding that they may move lower. and the ecb changes a moving target. in this case because he disappointed, yields have gone back up. we could see possibly a positive impact.
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it is quite a take a while to play out. guest: we are going to take you to bloomberg radio where our team is speaking. is in train now. >> based on my goal. it is something that i have been encouraging for a a while. wages were .2%. there is no pressure from the standpoint of wages but the fed is ready to go. because of concerns on the real economy, and it is an interesting experiment over the next three months or so. as they shift to a new policy in terms of determining the fed rate.
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quest please address for the international audience how janet yellen can avoid international mediocrities including the problems mario draghi has. >> the fed has backed off 12 months ago. statement yesterday was quite interesting. he gave the markup most of what they wanted. he is and do a what ever it takes mode. he included additional assets. it seemed like a very stimulative full board statement. the market i think had a sense that since the amount wasn't increased, the ecb is the last
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bastion of quantitative easing and monetary policy. >> this is an incredibly important question. how many billions of dollars did you lose yesterday? calls, from five and tenure german bonus point point. fair, $60 billion a month has been extended by six months and 18 months to go. that is a trillion euros to go. a much larger economy. there is a lot of firepower left. it pays to be careful with a central bank employing a
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betty liu: among headlines, several stood out including the yahoo! board may sell the core internet business. and a gloomy forecast for commodities for mining company ceo. and cars, sales were strong. it played out differently in asia and europe. auto sales have been rolling out today. we heard from volkswagen. sales tumbling 24%. other automakers did better. a 3% jump in sales. the industry has said to log its best november yet. joining us now is matt miller.
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go behind the surface numbers. this is about trust. match: it is. it is pointed in the case of ford. the volume was down 11%. truck volume was up 18%. and are selling fewer cars .re trucks, betty liu: who is winning and losing? everyone is winning. particular, toyota did great. nissan did well. hyundai was in a funk earlier in the year, they are doing it with the crossover utility vehicles that everyone likes so much. with some of the new ones, like hyundai with the santa fe, they
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are making some inroads. nissan, and toyota is in the transition on the rav4. what they were selling last month for the old ones at attractive prices. they put it to ford and honda. a great month, up by 30 plus percent. those were the big winners. the shares are trading lower after the german carmaker revealed u.s. sales fell by a quarter last month on the back of the emissions scandal. standing by, when we talk about this story, the chief executive has been speaking to stern magazine. what did he have to say? >> we have him saying he things it will take several years to get to the bottom of this. he has given an updated schedule on when they will release
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strategy 2025. what we had last night is a bit of the preview. the holding of company that controls volkswagen. i will personally do my point. he wants to stand with the workers. they want a clear ironclad commitment that there will not be job losses, or job cut's. emily: one possibility is scrapping alibaba, and selling the core internet business. me, a fairly significant inition in yahoo!, with me the studio, om malik of true
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ventures. you have not been shy about your feelings about marissa mayer and yahoo!. and criticism. what do you think now? >> yahoo! losses relevance a long time ago. the internet consumer internet companies are very much social logical and demographic places. generations move on from those products are they become irrelevant. yahoo! is relevance is the question here. what are theyoint going to make it work for? there is not a single must use product that yahoo!. >> not a single must use product since google. how do you respond to that. >> i don't disagree. we are big fans and investors as well. his point is right on. we are investors because the
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market is valuing an asset that we see value in at zero. zero is usually a good price to pay for something. we invested early in alibaba. they are worth a lot of money, $43 billion collectively. that leaves the current core business worth zero. so we like the yahoo! stub and we think the private equity guys will come in and buy that asset and do what should have been done a number of years ago, have more of my financial engineering approach, a dealmaking approach to that business. i agree with the point that obsolete technology, even more than disruptive technology is a problem in the valley today. samsung is giving its mobile business a makeover. the company is on pace for its lowest profit in five years.
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a second straight annual decline. joining us to discuss, cory johnson joining us from san francisco. walk us through the changes we have seen. is ajohnson: the change result of what is going on. look over the performance of that business over the last couple of years, you see a dramatic decline of the success, of the high-end for samsung and galaxy phones. on a profit basis the high-end phones haven't been the last two years. >> a lot of people thought that it would be much more extensive. that the reshuffling would have seen a lot more players changed around. >> right. it is not just consumer electronics. in so muchn interest more. you have shipbuilding,
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construction, insurance and so forth. where an interesting time people were expecting more changes. it comes in the midst of a power transition. a lot of the other business haven't done well. like shipbuilding and construction. typically what happens in this rotation of management is the heads of these units that don't do so well typically get moved. i'm seeing the moves in copper. we had a bottom? >> the markets are searching for the bottom. it is going to be the drivers. supplies going to be some time to work out. before we see what actually happens with that chinese economy. is it a soft landing or something disruptive? we have a market making over the next 30 days. that will see what happens to u.s. interest rates in u.s.
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dollars these of the other trade currencies. they'll be the catalyst i would watch in terms of telling me of all the drivers that are out there, what is guiding us in terms of commodities. >> i'm interested in your perspective. i just want to know, what is the overshoot? >> i think that copper at these miners 75% of the copper are keeping their head above water. a quarter of them are probably not or struggling. half of theyou have aluminum producers underwater for cash flow perspective. up, some of the week's most interesting conversations including tech talk with the ceos of salesforce and paypal. ♪
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betty liu: welcome back. i'm betty liu. leaders offluential the business world share their thoughts on important issues. our roundup of the best interviews with exclusive conversations with mark benioff. >> microsoft seems to have lost its groove. right now everything is about disruption. if you are a mature tech company
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like microsoft, what would you do? what can they do? the world has changed. you can see that walking around the streets of new york and talking to our customers. conversations are radically different in this post 2008 world. the most prized commodity is growth. every coo wants one thing, more growth. they know they are not going to have more growth, they will have something else, an activist shareholder. they don't have market capital improvement. for is a serious issue every one of the major coo's. it doesn't matter in the industry. my advice is simple, let's talk about what is your vision between now and 2020 for your company? to connect with your customers in new ways. what is your customer growth strategy?
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>> all of these buzzwords, the importance of social, the internet of things, and the valley, they start to feel gimmicky. when you think about the ultimate disruptors, it is activist investors. guy, anin operations activist gets to tell you what to do? in silicon valley we are the dreamer of dreams. >> that is nonsense. that is giving silicon valley too much credit. >> they are built on the concert of ideas, innovation, that is what we do, that makes the united states great and different. that makes silicon valley great and different from everyone else. what i love about my job is creating value. i have to tell you where the dreams come from. you can be the dreamer of dreams but the dreams come from the customers. the reason i come to new york city or tokyo or any major city in the world and meet with the
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customers is to listen. listen deeply to our customers. >> what changes are you willing to contemplate? >> dodd-frank was a response to the worst financial crisis since the great depression. as a result of the implementation we have a system that is safer and sounder. i think we have done an enormous amount to reduce the risk of another financial crisis that caused almost inestimable damage to individuals and the economy of the united states. is of the root things, it not one-size-fits-all. regulators have a lot of tools to target what they do, how they do their business so that it is tiered in terms of applying standards that are appropriate by a side institution. we have encourage regulators to use their regulatory flexibility to the greatest extent they can
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so they can be sensitive to the differences. >> some of this will require a substantial change, they would contemplate something that excuse banks under i believe $2 billion in assets from the vocal rule. is that going to be something that will be law-based changes? a some proposals reflect desire for clarity, which legislation can provide. it is important for regulators to use the flexibility they have to provide the flexibility that is needed. something i worry about a new legislative debate is the definition of small means different things to different people. requirementsertain in dodd-frank, suggestions have a $50 billion threshold be change from 100 to
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$500 billion at as if it is the same thing. they are amongst the largest financial institutions in the world. even when hundred $50 billion are that large. i think we have to be careful not to get into a conversation where we start rolling back the core protections that have made our system safer and sounder. >> as we look at things like the pfizer proposed deal, how much pressure does this put on other companies to seek a competitive tax rate? now you are competitive against someone who will lower their tax rate substantially. >> it is important for us to focus on as a society. the u.s. tax system is not competitive. we have to come up with a tax system that allows u.s. companies to be in competition globally for talent, and competition for investors, and
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ip assets to make this industry run. i think that deal should be something that serves notice to our policymakers, a good american companies feel no choice but to do things like tax inversions to remain competitive globally. >> what i think is most important is financial health. it is basically teaching people how to manage and move their money in a way that allows them that safety and security that they need in their everyday transaction. expensesle don't have that are higher than the revenues. they have typically a cash flow issue. medical emergency happens, there is losing jobs temporarily. what i think we need to be able to do is use data and information to get people past those one time hurdles. >> the solution is credit, not savings?
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>> a combination of both. what you can use is the ability to show people to do savings. >> of want to ask you about the tragic event in california and your thoughts about it from a personal point of view and someone who lived there, and your thoughts from a public policy point of view. >> from a personal point of view i have been in that building. i have been many times to san bernardino. it is a community under stress in some anyways. this is an unspeakable tragedy. i cannot imagine the stress the community is going through now. as they contemplate their dead and wounded, and their first responders, it appears more and more likely a terrorist in their midst. >> based on what we note you have thoughts on things related to public policy that you can take a look at? >> i do think it would be helpful if our president and
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mrs. clinton would acknowledge islamic extremism and terrorism as a real threat in our homeland instead of immediately talking about gun control. california is a state with some of the strictest gun-control laws in the country. they clearly didn't matter here. i think that would be helpful. debateh foreign policy within the republican party do you find most interesting? going on the debates is should we return to the patriot act, or did we do the right thing? the point.t misses as someone who has come from a technology industry the technology has moved beyond the patriot act. we have levels of encryption that didn't exist even two years ago. rather than having the typical political conversation, isn't this bill or this bill, what we ought to do is sit down with
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that can increase over threefold. that is like losing the size of japan, vietnam, and malaysia and ice every decade. shrinking lashes have also added to rising sea levels. that rise has been fast overdue in previous times. it doesn't sound too bad, but levels have risen twice as fast in the last 20 years. the you when is confident that it is the extinction -- responsible for the extension of several species. over 20 years, global greenhouse gas emissions have risen 40%.
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in 1990 the biggest offender with the usa with 70% of the world's omissions. china's ascent as a global power has since the top spot with 22% of the world's omissions. theasian powerhouse gave green light to 185 call plans coal plantsone -- this year alone. time is running out for the world's advanced nations to come to the most important agreement of our time. >> it is a wonderful close to a day here of this meeting of the cities and what they can do about climate change. today?d you learn what was a surprise? >> 400 mayors here from around the world, they all understood we have a problem with pollution, and they are all determined to do something about it. they all said the constituents they have one thing, demand that
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they saw -- they solve this problem. the one that deserves a lot of credit for bringing them here is the head of the united nations secretary-general who said cities are where the people are, where the pollution is, where the solutions are. he wanted us to push the national governments. governments doal something, pass a law or have money, it is at the cities with the iqs -- execution is. the mayors being held responsible. idea of measure and disclose. congress doesn't do that. carney is the head of the bank of england, a canadian that has a job as the head of the bank of the bank of england, has created on behalf of the g-20 an organization which i am lucky enough to head that is going to collect data on who is doing the polluting con on a
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comparable basis and make it disclose a bull. once that happens businesses are going to have to clean up their act because they have stockholders who say we don't want to run any risks. stop this pollution or we will value your company less than others. they can turn to governments and say this other city, this other country, people are living longer than us and this is why. if you have the data, that is an now i think to get people to act. >> the first signs of a new cotton crop nudging through the rich soil of the liverpool plains. the water retention ability of these soils is like no other anywhere. ofs farm is on the frontline a battle between the potential dining room and fading mining boom. underneath the high-quality soil is high-quality coal.
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china has a license to dig it out. it will destroy the water table. >> the miners have been instructed to make good. but you cannot make good with the quantity of water required here. >> the agriculture minister opposes the mind and opposes his own government. he cannot understand how it is economically viable. >> because they have sole responsibility of an $800 million build, to an billion-dollar license that you have to acquire, $3 million of reclamation work, that would be a hard thing to get across any board. >> and that is an inferred or the cold prices gone from bad to awful and a global commodities route. no one would be interviewed for the story. in a statement the company said this project is viable regardless of the current cold price. it said as groundwater impact
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studies, they exceed anything else done in the state of new south wales. they have been spending up, building everything from a new office to a skate park for the locals. it is winning plenty of friends and the local mayor who rejects the idea of the area being a food bowl. >> 70 to 90% of the groundwater used is used to grow cotton. we understand why people are producing cotton. it is the biggest return on crops. ♪
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story of the week in business. >> today i am looking at u.s. manufacturing data. we got the isn report, a survey of manufacturers where they ask how business is doing. it is not that great. this fell to its lowest label since the financial crisis. it is deteriorating. the yellow line is worse. what is the cost of goods. it is collapsing. if you're worried about deflation this is one chart you want to look at. manufacturing is a small and shrieking part of the economy. it will get services data this week. it should be stronger but people still pay -- need these numbers. when you see these things rolling over with no signs of a bottom people start to worry. >> the central bank in austria keeping rates unchanged today.
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they have been rising highest level since the middle of october while iron ore has been falling. look at the movement. they have been moving in tandem for the next -- last couple of months. they pretty much move in tandem. this matters when iron or falls. the economy tends to fall with it. australia is rising. expectations for rates hikes are being cut for the first quarter of next year. government told the economist last week. they were talking about expectations for rate hikes. he said we should just chill out and come back in february and see what the data says. what janet yellen ever use the term chill out? if the fed hikes, great. you'll be fastening to see what happens then.
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we look at two big to bail, the credit rating adjustment yesterday and the fact of the matter is the big banks from the bottom have outperform the broader s&p 500 as well. bail banks dog to better than good in 2016. >> we think they will. good morning by the way. at the end of the day we think we have a major shift coming with respect to private client investors. at some point moving away from bonds and into stocks. that is a profitable and longer-term business for the banks. this downgrade of credit is more noise than anything. viability ofrm these banks have never been stronger. i think all of this is headline noise. >> that is it for bloomberg best this week. you can always get more business
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♪ >> from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. charlie rose: he's the president and chair of btb, russia's second-largest bank. russia has been battered by the westsanctions from in response to russia's annexation of crimea in persistently low oil prices and 2014. other geopolitical risks also pose a severe threat. on thursday, president putin will meet with the president of france, francois hollande, in moscow to discuss opportunities
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