tv Bloomberg Best Bloomberg December 5, 2015 8:00am-9:01am EST
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movie geeks. sports freaks. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. betty: coming up, the story that shaped the week in business around the world. from a landmark change in china's currency status, we have the bottom line on the top global headlines. we recap a week of corporate shakeups and a possible breakup. and we hear some big names in politics and business speak their mind. >> the u.s. tax system is frankly noncompetitive in a global sense. betty: all that and more. this is "bloomberg best."
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hello. i'm betty liu. this is "bloomberg best." let's begin with a day by day review of the week's top stories. starting on when the imf welcome monday, the chinese currency. inclusion ofon and it in the basket of currencies is a recognition of the significant reforms which have been conducted, of the opening up of the chinese economy, of the financial, more market-driven principles that are being used by the chinese authorities going forward. >> short-term it doesn't mean a lot. to put things in perspective, you are looking at a total allocation of $318 billion.
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that is roughly 6% of the daily trading volume in total foreign exchange. >> just 6%. >> and one third of global gdp, less than 1% of total trade. it is a drop in the bucket. it is much more of a psychological effect. >> is that significant? >> i don't think so. it is symbolically important for china because to me it is an officially an endorsement of what china has achieved in terms of financial market. and a formal recognition of a very important role played by china in terms of global trade. betty: michael plath, the founder of bluecrest capital, currently running a billion -- $8 billion, made an official announcement, they will be
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returning all client money. he will instead focus on managing his own wealth and that of his partners. i want to bring in the whole team here. let's take you back three years. blue crest was a $36 billion fund. fast-forward. >> they made it one of the larger funds. i think it is a sign of the big change that we have seen in the capital markets. morgan stanley cutting as much as a quarter of the fixed income jobs. they had been hiring people from that world. things have changed a lot. >> what i am wondering, tim, you are a structuring guy. you deal with a lot of hedge funds. >> distressed hedge funds. do you perceive the same anxieties that clearly michael platt is feeling? >> i don't think you can say everyone feels this way or that
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way, but big on wall street is not as popular as it used to be. all of these people are stuck in a regulatory buying. it is a tough market to be investing. i think a lot of people say i would rather take that money, invest the way i want to, not talk to lps or all over the world trying to get money and just enjoy the active investing and make as much money for themselves. >> we would likely end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting both of our goals. such an abrupt tightening would risk disrupting financial markets, and perhaps even inadvertently push the economy into recession. >> basically she came out and , said the fed is ready to move the economy, ready for a rate increase.
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we have a strong enough economy in terms of job creation and in terms that we should get faster inflation once we stop seeing the downward pressure from oil prices. it should fade in 2016. she warned if they wait too long we could see market disruptions, , bubbles form. the fed it was all but guarantee , that unless something happens between now and the 16th of december they will raise rates. >> 74% chance probability of a move there. consensus seems to be the leading that way. >> that could go up significantly. people will say this is going to happen. they are leaving wiggle room. you will never get to 100% because of the way it is constructed. the fed has convinced the market at this point that a rate increase is coming. they have got what they wanted and the need to keep them there for the next two days. >> we have to do more. let me say this very clearly.
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we are doing more because it works. not because it fails. we want to consolidate something that is a success. >> we got the cut, we got the extension. we did not get the expansion. we need to add in market technical. we saw a rally leading into this. seeing that reverse, a lot of that is profit-taking. we have to take that out because the expectations around mario draghi are no different from the expectations we often see from the fomc and often disappoint. we have to factor in the trading happening, not necessarily long-term. >> there is a big squeeze happening here. we have to factor in the ecb credibility. they guided these markets to expect something big. he told us to look at three things on the asset purchase program. size, composition, and the duration. they have widen the asset pool, they have extended the
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generation. take that box. on the size of the purchase program, they did nothing. for the market that is a big disappointment. the 10 basis point move, that is significant. you see it in the equity markets as well. markets disappointed, the top one for a lot of people will be overpromised and under delivered. >> we are 30 seconds away from the jobs numbers. we are joined by alan krueger. >> i was talking about how we have become a service-based economy. we have the same number of manufacturing jobs today as 1941. we saw a decline in the payroll number in august and september. this number is big. what is it? >> 211,000. that was the number for last
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month. 5.0%. where do those gains come from? construction jobs rising the most since january 2014. up 46,000. adding 28,000 health care, and food services and retail strong. >> for more, we're here with peter coy. tell us what you are focused on. peter: i looked at the broad measure of under and climate in the economy. discouraged workers, people working part-time. people with jobs would like to work more. it is a broadest measure of slack in the labor market. it got more slack actually. we were happy when the number got back under 10%. in november it ticked up from 9.8 to 9.9%.
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this is a number janet yellen pays a lot of attention to. the 5%, we want to pay attention to that, but the numbers that show that back in 2004, 2005, we were at 8%. then it trended very nicely down. we are still above the levels of slack we had before the recession. the labor market has not completely healed. >> we will dig deeper into the impact of the announcement and get more reaction to the u.s. jobs report as bloomberg best continues. ♪
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betty: welcome back to "bloomberg best." i'm betty liu. it remains to be seen how the ecb's interest rate, decision, and economic numbers will affect the market. this week we discussed the possibilities. all the different measures the ecb announced, what was the most significant? >> it was not the thing that they announced, it was the thing they didn't announce. an additional amount of bond
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buying each month. they are extending stimulus by six months. they will buy a larger told a -- total number of bonds. markets were really focused on that, thinking that you to be done to get the stimulus they are looking for. a lot of people were betting you would have a weaker euro. big short trade today. as the euro goes up by a significant amount, over 108 on this news, it is at 105 when the press conference started. a lot of disappointment, super mario does his first faceplant. betty: into this meeting, they have been consistent about telegraphing.
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>> there are 19 countries now in the eurozone. too many to have everybody vote. they are taking turns. they rotate the voters. they do it on a meeting by meeting basis. unlike the fed, which does on a year-by-year basis. in this meeting, the germans were voters. the germans have been less enthusiastic about stimulus and may have hurt draghi. this was not a unanimous decision. there may have been pushback as part of a compromise to do with -- do what they did cutting the , deposit rate should have some effect. and extending stimulus should have some affect. he didn't get as much as he would want. >> they cut it by 10 basis points. there is no clarity right now, whether the ecb could cut that once again in the future. would going further into negative territory have any kind
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of effect? >> we are working on a theory, not reality. this hasn't been tried in the past. what they are doing as -- is the , fed pays banks to leave money at the fed. same thing happens in europe. they are charging banks with the ecb. they figure that will make the banks take the money away and push it out into the economy and lend it. it's not really happening. they will not see gains in lensing. the idea is it would put more pressure and squeeze profit margins. they will have to do something. so far, there has not been much of an effect. where you are seeing the bond market, traders keep betting that they may move lower. and the ecb changes a moving target. in this case because he disappointed, yields have gone back up.
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we could see possibly a positive impact. it is quite a take a while to play out. betty: we are going to take you to bloomberg radio where our team is speaking. >> this is in train now. >> yeah, they are certainly set to go. it is something that i have been encouraging for a while. wages were increasing. wages were up .2%. there is no pressure from the standpoint of wages but the fed is ready to go. i think because of concerns on the real economy, and it is an interesting experiment over the next three months or so. they shift to a new policy in terms of determining the fed rate. as a the excess reserves
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top. if they are going to have to work with that. they need at least three months to make sure it is smooth. >> please address for the international audience how janet yellen can avoid international mediocrities including the challenges mario draghi has. >> the fed has backed off 12 months ago. draghi's policy statement yesterday was quite interesting. he gave the market most of what they wanted. he did give them quantitative easing for six more months. he included additional assets. it seemed like a very stimulative sort of forward statement. the market i think had a sense that since the amount wasn't increased, the ecb is the last
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bastion of quantitative easing and monetary policy. >> this is an incredibly important question. bill gross, how many billions of dollars did you lose yesterday? [laughter] >> lots of calls, from five and ten-year german bonds. to be fair, $60 billion a month has been extended by six months and 18 months to go. that is a trillion euros to go. that puts their balance sheet close to 4 trillion euros. a much larger economy. there is a lot of firepower left. it pays to be careful with a -- when a central bank employs a
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betty: you're watching "bloomberg best." i'm betty liu. among headlines, several stood out, including the yahoo! board may sell the core internet business. and a gloomy forecast for commodities for mining company ceo. and cars, sales were strong. -- strong in america. it played out differently in asia and europe. auto sales have been rolling out today. in the last we heard from hour, volkswagen. u.s. sales tumbling 24%. other automakers did better. , a 3% jump in sales. gm and ford also higher, but missed estimates. the industry has said to log its best november yet. joining us now is matt miller. matt go behind the surface , numbers.
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this is really about trucks and suvs. matt: it is. it is especially pointed in the case of ford. total volume was down 11%. truck volume was up 18%. they are selling fewer cars and they are low vehicles, anyway, and selling more trucks. suv's, jeeps, trucks. betty: who is winning and losing? >> everyone is winning. except for volkswagen. everyone is winning in this market. it is robust. today in particular, toyota did great. nissan did well. hyundai was in a funk earlier in the year, they are doing it with the crossover utility vehicles that everyone likes so much. with some of the new ones, like hyundai with the santa fe, they are making some inroads.
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nissan, and toyota is in the transition on the rav4. what they were selling last month were mostly the old ones at attractive prices. they put it to ford and honda. rav 4 had a great month, up by 30 plus percent. those were the big winners. >> volkswagen shares are trading lower after the german carmaker revealed u.s. sales fell by a quarter last month on the back of the emissions scandal. hans nichols is standing by. when we talk about this story, the chief executive has been speaking to stern magazine. what did he have to say? this is almost a curtain-raiser. hans: we have him saying he things it will take several years to get to the bottom of this. he has given an updated schedule on when they will release strategy 2025.
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they will do that in the middle of 2016. what we had last night is a bit of the preview. the chairman of the holding company that controls volkswagen. said, i willesman personally do my part. he wants to stand with the workers. ae workers council wants clear, ironclad commitment that there will not be job losses, or job cuts. emily: one possibility is scrapping the spinoff of alibaba, and selling the core internet business. joining me, a fairly significant position in yahoo!, with me in the studio, om malik of true ventures. you have not been shy about your
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feelings about marissa mayer and yahoo! and criticism. what do you think now? >> yahoo! lost its relevance a long time ago. the internet consumer internet companies are very much social -- social logical -- sociological and demographic places. generations move on from those products are they become irrelevant. yahoo!'s relevance is the question here. from my standpoint what are they going to make it work for? there is not a single must use product at yahoo!. >> not a single must use product since google. how do you respond to that? >> i don't disagree. we are true investors as well. his point is right on. we are investors because the market is valuing an asset that we see value in at zero.
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zero is usually a good price to pay for something. we invested early in alibaba. stake theye alibaba , are worth a lot of money, $43 billion collectively. that leaves the current core business worth zero. so we like the yahoo! stub and we think the private equity guys will come in and buy that asset and do what should have been done a number of years ago, have more of a financial engineering approach, a dealmaking approach to that business. i agree with the point that obsoletive technology, even more than disruptive technology, is a problem in the valley today. >> samsung is giving its mobile business a makeover. annual management reshuffle. the company is on pace for its
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lowest profit in five years. a second straight annual decline. joining us to discuss, cory johnson joining us from san francisco. walk us through the changes we have seen. cory: the change is a result of what is going on. if we look over the performance of that business over the last couple of years, you see a dramatic decline of the success, particularly of the high-end for samsung and galaxy phones. on a profit basis, the high-end phones haven't been the last two years. >> a lot of people thought that it would be much more extensive. that the reshuffling would have seen a lot more players changed around. >> right. when you talk about samsung it , is not just consumer electronics. they have an interest in so much more. you have shipbuilding, you have construction, insurance
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and so forth. it was an interesting time where people were expecting more changes. first, because it comes in the midst of a power transition. a lot of the other business of the samsung group haven't done well. like shipbuilding and construction, for example. typically what happens in this rotation of management is the heads of these units that don't do so well typically get moved. >> i'm looking at iron ore down. i'm seeing the moves in copper. are we at a bottom? >> the markets are searching for the bottom. it is going to be the drivers. supplies going to be some time to work out. before we see what actually happens with that chinese economy. is it a soft landing or something disruptive? we have a market-making over the next 30 days. that will see what happens to u.s. interest rates in u.s. dollars these of the other trade currencies.
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they'll be the catalyst i would be watching in terms of telling me of all the drivers that are out there, what is guiding us in terms of commodities. >> copper at >> i think that copper at these prices, 75% of the copper miners are keeping their head above water. a quarter of them are probably not or struggling. in aluminum you have half of the aluminum producers underwater for cash flow perspective. >> coming up, some of the week's most interesting conversations including tech talk with the ceos of salesforce and paypal. ♪
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betty: welcome back, i'm betty liu. the most influential leaders of the business world share their thoughts on important issues. our roundup of the best interviews with exclusive conversations with mark benioff. >> microsoft seems to have lost its groove. right now everything is about disruption. if you are a mature tech company like microsoft, what would you
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do? what can they do? >> the world has changed. you can see that walking around the streets of new york and talking to our customers. conversations are radically different in this post 2008 world. the most prized commodity is growth. every coo wants one thing, more growth. they know they are not going to have more growth, they will have something else, an activist shareholder. when they do not have growth, they do not have market capital improvement. this is a serious issue for every one of the major coo's. it does not matter what industry. my advice is simple, let's talk about what is your vision between now and 2020 for your company? what is your vision to connect with your customers in new ways. what is your customer growth strategy?
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>> all of these buzzwords, the importance of social, the internet of things, and the valley, they start to feel gimmicky. when you think about the ultimate disruptors, it is activist investors. you are an aberration sky, and an activist gets to tell you what to do? >> in silicon valley we are the dreamer of dreams. >> that is nonsense. that is giving silicon valley too much credit. >> this country is based on the concept of ideas, innovation that is what we do, that makes , the united states great and different. that makes silicon valley great and different from everyone else. what i love about my job is creating value. i have to tell you where the dreams come from. you can be the dreamer of dreams but the dreams come from the customers. the reason i come to new york city or london, or tokyo, or any
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major city in the world and meet with the customers is to listen. listen deeply to our customers. >> what changes are you willing to contemplate? >> dodd-frank was a response to the worst financial crisis since the great depression. as a result of the implementation, we have a system that is safer and sounder. i think we have done an enormous amount to reduce the risk of another financial crisis that caused almost inestimable damage to individuals and the economy of the united states. one of the things about that, not one size fits all. regulators have a lot of tools to target what they do, how they do their business so that it is tiered in terms of applying standards that are appropriate by a side institution. we have encouraged regulators to use their regulatory flexibility
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to the greatest extent they can so they can be sensitive to the differences. >> some of this will require a substantial change, they would contemplate something that excuse banks under i believe $2 billion in assets from the vocal rule. is that going to be something that will be law-based changes? >> some proposals reflect a desire for clarity, which legislation can provide. i think it is important for regulators to use the flexibility that they have to provide the kind of flexibility that is needed. about, in therry debate, is the definition of small means different things to different people. in terms of certain requirements in dodd-frank, suggestions have been made that a $50 billion
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threshold to be changed from $100 billion to $500 billion as if it is the same thing. they are amongst the largest financial institutions in the world. even when $150 billion are that large. i think we have to be careful not to get into a conversation where we start rolling back the core protections that have made our system safer and sounder. >> as we look at things like the pfizer proposed deal, how much pressure does this put on other companies to seek a competitive tax rate? now you are competitive against someone who will lower their tax rate substantially. >> it is important for us to focus on as a society. the u.s. tax system is not competitive. we have to come up with a tax system that allows u.s. companies to be in competition globally for talent, and competition for investors, and ip assets to make this industry run.
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i think that deal should be something that serves notice to our policymakers, that led american companies feel no choice but to do things like tax inversions to remain competitive globally. >> what i think is most important is financial health. it is basically teaching people how to manage and move their money in a way that allows them that safety and security that they need in their everyday transaction. most people don't have expenses that are higher than the revenues. what they have is typically a a cash flow issue. medical emergency happens, there is losing jobs temporarily. what i think we need to be able to do is use data and information to get people past those one time hurdles. >> the solution is credit, not savings? >> a combination of both.
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when you can use with technology is the ability to show people to do savings. >> i want to ask you first about the tragic event in california and your thoughts about it from a personal point of view and someone who lived there, and your thoughts from a public policy point of view. >> from a personal point of view i have been in that building. i have been many times to san bernardino. it is a community under stress in so many ways. this is an unspeakable tragedy. i cannot imagine the stress the community is going through now. as they contemplate their dead and wounded, and their first responders, it appears more and more likely a terrorist in their midst. >> based on what we know now, do you have thoughts on things related to public policy that you can take a look at? >> i do think it would be
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helpful if our president and mrs. clinton would acknowledge islamic extremism and terrorism as a real threat in our homeland instead of immediately talking about gun control. california is a state with some of the strictest gun-control laws in the country. they clearly didn't matter here. i think that would be helpful. >> which foreign policy debate within the republican party do you find most interesting? >> one of the debates going on that i do not find a lightning, is to return to the patriot act, or did we do the right thing? i think that misses the point. as someone who has come from a technology industry the , technology has moved beyond the patriot act. we have levels of encryption that didn't exist even two years ago. rather than having the typical political conversation, is it
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betty: world leaders met in paris to discuss environmental issues. some of the best stories on bloomberg television dealt with those same topics. here is a sampling. >> scientists almost entirely agree the last few decades have been warmer at the earth surface than any since 1850. hasnorthern hemisphere, it
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been enormous on record in the last hundred years. at 4%, a decade, the mounting -- that is like losing the size of japan, vietnam, and malaysia and ice every decade. shrinking lashes have also added to rising sea levels. that rice has been faster than the previous millennia. it doesn't sound too bad, but levels have risen twice as fast in the last 20 years. un is confident that climate change is responsible for the extension of several species. this is thanks to rapid organize asian. just over 20 years, global greenhouse gas emissions have risen 40%.
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in 1990 the biggest offender was the usa with nearly 17% of the world's omissions. china's ascent as a global power has since the top spot with 22% of the world's omissions. the asian powerhouse gave the green light to 155 call plans this year alone -- coal plants this year alone. time is running out for the world's advanced nations to come to the most important agreement of our time. >> it is a wonderful close to a day here of this meeting of the cities and what they can do about climate change. it is led by the thoughts by -- of new york. what did you learn today? what was a surprise? >> 400 mayors here from around the world, they all understood we have a problem with pollution, and they are all determined to do something about it. they all said their constituents
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, demand, that they solve this problem. that is why we are here. the one that deserves a lot of credit for bringing them here is the head of the united nations secretary-general who said cities are where the people are, where the pollution is, where the solutions are. he wanted us to push the national governments. when the national governments do something, pass a law or have money, it is at the cities where where the execution is. the mayors are being held responsible. >> the idea of measure and disclose. congress doesn't do that. cities are responsible to do that. >> mark carney is the head of the bank of england, a canadian that has a job as the head of the bank of england has created , on behalf of the g-20 an organization which i am lucky enough to head, that is going to
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collect data on who is doing the on a comparable basis, and make it disclose a bill. once that happens businesses are going to have to clean up their act because they have stockholders who say we don't want to run any risks. stop this pollution or we will value your company less than others. they can turn to governments and say this other city, this other country, people are living longer than us and this is why. if you have the data, that is an -- that is enough to get people to act. >> the first signs of a new cotton crop nudging through the rich soil of the liverpool plains. >> the water retention ability of these soils is like no other anywhere. >> this farm sits on the frontline of a battle between the potential dining room and fading mining boom. underneath the high-quality soil is high-quality coal. china has a license to dig it out.
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study says it will destroy the water table. >> the miners have been instructed to make good. but you cannot make good with the quantity of water required here. >> the agriculture minister opposes the mine and opposes his own government. he cannot understand how it is economically viable. >> the fact that you have sole responsibility of an $800 bill, to an billion-dollar license that you have to acquire, $3 million of reclamation work, that would be a hard thing to get across any board. >> and that is an inferred or the cold prices gone from bad to awful and a global commodities route. no one would be interviewed for the story. in a statement the company said , this project is viable regardless of the current cold price.
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it said as groundwater impact studies, they exceed anything else done in the state of new south wales. china has been spending up, building everything from a new office to a skate park for the locals. it is winning plenty of friends and the local mayor who rejects the idea of the area being a food bowl. >> 70% to 90% of the groundwater used is used to grow cotton. i do not grow cotton -- not food, we understand why people ♪
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peek at some of the charts that told the story of the week in business. >> today i am looking at u.s. manufacturing data. we got the isn report, a survey of manufacturers where they ask how business is doing. it is not that great. this white line fell to its lowest level since the financial crisis, 2009. it has been deteriorating. the yellow line is worse. what is the cost of goods. it is collapsing. if you are worried about deflation this is one chart you , want to look at. the good news manufacturing is a , small and shrinking part of the economy. about this data -- when you see these things rolling over with no signs of a bottom people start to worry. >> the central bank in austria
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-- australia, keeping rates unchanged today. they have been rising highest level since the middle of october while iron ore has been falling. look at the movement. they have been moving in tandem for the last couple of months. they pretty much move in tandem. australia being in export. this matters with iron or falls. the economy tends to fall with it. australia is rising. expectations for rates hikes are being cut for the first quarter of next year. chill out, that is what the governor told the e-commerce last week. they were talking about expectations for rate hikes. we have christmas, chill out and come back in february and see what the data says. what janet yellen ever use the term chill out? if the fed hikes, great. you'll be fastening to see what
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-- it will be fascinating to see what happens then. brian, we looked at two big to bail, the credit rating adjustment yesterday and the fact of the matter is the big banks from the bottom have outperformed the broader s&p 500 as well. will be too big to bail banks do better than good in 2016. >> we think they will. good morning by the way. at the end of the day at the end , of the day we think we have a major shift coming with respect to private client investors. that is a pretty profitable and longer-term business for the banks. this downgrade of credit is more noise than anything. the longer-term viability of these banks have never been stronger. i think all of this is headline noise. >> that is it for bloomberg best this week. you can always get more business news around the world at bloomberg.com.
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