>> i'm john heilmann. >> and i'm mark halperin. with all due respect to donald i wouldn't expect too many endorsements for your latest policy proposal. ♪[music] then the show tonight, hillary clinton, the donald trump miracle. night of, the first hanukkah. last night, president obama put on how tos ideas defeat terrorism at home and abroad and seasoned it with some for gun control. overall, he focused on assuring the public that everything is he didn'te fine, but announce any policy changes or new ideas.

his -- catalyst for his address was last week's bernardino,san california. the investigation said the two shooters have been radicalized for some time. they still have not found any clear overseas links. did president obama choose to give an oval office address nothing new to announce? >> i think he was under a lot of pressure to do this, including from democrats, who feel he has not been in tune with the public mood on this. obama, i think, feels that the fear in america a greater state, is risk in some ways than islamic state itself. you can quibble with that but i speaking to what he considers at this moment a kind dangerous time in terms of american opinion. >> he wanted to get around the media filter. so confident his positions are correct, he just said, i'll peoplell the american directly. the problem is, the filter is

powerful. a speechr looks at that's criticized bid republicans, that has no idea and they treat it like another partisan volley. think it may be artificial and fake and the kind of thing he doesn't like, but he should have new things to say. >> well, look -- >> even if he wasn't going to change course. >> i don't know exactly what you would ask for him to say, given that he does have confidence that his strategy that he has is the right strategy. unfortunate, it seems to me, to use the oval office and the ultimate outcome, which is to say essentially the reaction to it partisan lines. every democrat in the country thinks yay, every republican neigh and we're basically where we were before the speech. out to anyached republicans, it didn't work. he's got to try to unify the country. i think the question of what happens next is the president is

going to have a hard time building a coalition at home. he's not going to get an authorization to use force the been asking for, for weeks, and nothing changed with that speech. >> i agree. i just do think, though, that it's hard to -- if you think tot the greatest path national unity would be to calm everybody down -- and there are a lot of people out there trying to inflame people rather than try to calm them down -- i'm not how you can accomplish what he seeks to accomplish. the republican candidates have also had their chance to wax political on foreign policy. to gauge who is seizing this best, we're going to take out our version of a hanukkah. of eight candles, here are eight candidates. who is doing the best to get their message across on foreign policy? i see mr. trump, right at the top of both our lists. he released a statement today, calling for a total and complete shutdown of muslims, end quote,

entering the united states. him as doingth see best at least in terms of getting his message across and toitalizing on this moment his good ends. i also see we agree that chris someone doing well in that regard. >> trump said over the weekend that, you know, people think, oh, when national security comes to the fore, trump is going to collapse. hasn't. people see him as the strongest leader. is i think governor christie speaking emotionally about the threats to the homeland. goon't know if he's going to up in the polls but he's clearly made himself a relevant part of and chose today to attack trump on national security in a way that i think afterhim a voice to go trump that's pretty powerful. >> no doubt that christie is making the most of this moment. waiting to see some actually real im-- actual real that. of so far, we haven't seen it. the immediate chattering class, yes. nowhere else. donald trump, we're not saying

we approve of his message. saying he's capitalizing on this moment. he certainly seems to be capitalizing quite well. have aext, you and i little bit of a flip. i've got cruz third best and got them flipped. i think the chattering class power ofnderstand the cruz's message. willsaying basically i keep america safe but i will not in foreign wars or violate civil liberties. a chordhe is striking as someone who will use american power when necessary but will overreach. >> that is a very muted version of what he's saying. we both agree that marco rubio doing pretty well in getting his strong foreign policy out. week, basically said i don't think we have a dog in the fight, in the syrian war. i'm not in favor of a no-fly zone. over this weekend, he's saying i bomb isis back, carpet bomb them, until we see the sand

glow. i will use american force when necessary? >> we wants to beat isis but want american troops embroiled and doesn't want to take out another dictator. that.nderstand but most voters, when they hear, on one hand, i am the voice of restraint and i will find a third way, and then the next day sand in about blowing the middle east, i think a lot of voters aren't going to understand. >> he's killing it on talk radio. jeb bush is getting a chance to in chief.ommander this is the path to his comeback. standing up on principle. i know you don't think it's any better than it has but -- voice, i sawsh's him do an interview this morning. it was on morning joe. was fine but not cutting through the clutter in of any, not making much impact. rand paul can solidify his slib

ti coalition -- liberty coalition base. but, again, for the last year, work thattrying to constituency. and he got really nowhere. changed in ad has way that works against those messages rather than in favor of them. he can consolidate it but it's a much smaller group. con -- john casey isome woism through. not breaking he's too neunse nuanced in talkg reallyhese issues to stand out in a field where a lot of people are speaking in a much more muscular way. that carson ise that coroners not getting anywhere. kasich, nowhere in this debate in terms of registering with voters. succeeding and capitalizing on the moment. >> i still think that bush and

paul -- i talked to one republican who said he thinks national security will be the dominant issue all the way the caucus. nobody is going to talk about anything else. we shall see. cruise isgnal or false, ted number one with the bullet in iowa. the answer when we come back. ♪

>> so what is the deal with ted cruz? university poll published this morning puts him at the top of the pack in iowa. 24%, up 14 points since october. among a big lead evangelicals and conservatives. but in a different new poll out

afternoon, that shows donald trump at the top, with in second place with 20%. hashtag #confusing. mind, in both polls, cruz is showing strong in iowa. but let's look nationally. up with hillary clinton in a new nbc poll, cruz doesn't well.t carson, rubio and bush do better. going even deeper, among voters, cruz doesn't do well at all. when they were asked if they had thetive feelings about candidates. the only guy who does worse than cruz in that regard? el trumpo. mark, i ask you, these polls, taken together, in a these goode, are cruz news or bad cruz news? >> overall, good news. not that long, ago, most were saying ted cruz had no chance. than marco rubio, when you ask people, who is the finalist? whose got the ability and the go into march and

beyond? cruz is on more lists. >> look, i always look at every presidential campaign, i look at it the same way. gotta win the nomination before you can get to the general election. a lot of problems you're going to have to deal with in the general election, so i think good for tedre cruz in the sense that he has a path to win the nomination. he wins iowa, there's a path for him. strength in iowa, to me, of politicalterms considerations the difficulties he's going to have in the general election. difficulties would be huge. >> and most of the other republicans do. within the party, a lot of like trump to fail, because everyone else, from bush to cruz to rubio, thinks if leaves the scene, the race is wide open. and they think they're the ones who can win. cruz is the one who may, if he heplants trump -- big if -- may be too hard to stop. >> yes. an then he will turn into even bigger nightmare, that

andhow cruz will go away everything will be solved. >> cruz disappears. pathstead, cruz can have a to nomination. and boy! that would be almost as big a the republican party as if trump won. not,ether cruz is ahead or he's doing well. maybe he's the favorite, along with trump. check out our website, a story by our colleague, brightman, about why any attempt by the and theans establishment to run negative t.v. ads against donald trump might not work. why is that? talking toe, in trump supporters in iowa this is able to turn negative attention into positive energy. would the establishment be making a mistake to run negative ads against trump? >> no, i don't think so, because end, you know, for trump to ultimately be the nominee, he's going to have to more than appeal to that --

whatever it is, somewhere ofween 20% and 30% republican voters who seem to like him. than thatbigger eventually. and for the establishment wing of the party that hopes to stop him, at some point they gotta drive those negative impressions makeeally harden him to sure trump can't grow beyond 30. >> i think it is still more is taken down.mp if he's taken down by a candidate in a campaign rather an outside group. if there's an outside group, i use that to his advantage. or christie or cruz say they're going to take out trump and they're going to put money where their mouth is, i think that's the way he'll come down, if he does. >> i don't think that any of people can stop trump without going negative on trump in a significant way, both in of paid media and earned media. at some point, the day of even for will come, ted cruz.

you gotta do it. be an eventual ingredient to him losing a race. he's got to lose somewhere. iowa, lose in new hampshire, lose in both. that's the only thing that's going to take the wind out of sails. >> trump is not politically correct. are very tied to him. >> if you've been following the rodhamts of hillary client, he's been attacking furiously. he's hawkish on isis. when it comes to striking a toance between appealing democratic base voters and maintaining her general election hillary doing?is >> the conventional wisdom is less to -- she's been more hawkish to distance herself from president obama. i think most of the positions she's taken in the last few hawkish on foreign policy, to the left on some of these issues i think these are she's comfortable running on in

a general election and i think quite effective. >> i remember back in 2008, people -- the big question how isasked then was, hillary clinton different from her husband, from the 1990's? at the end of that campaign, someone said, we now know how different from her husband. she's further to the right on foreign policy and further to the left on economics. struck me as true then. and everything i've known since then has reinforced that message. think that is who she is. i think she's further left on right on and further than obama.cy >> while national security is not as big with democratic voters as it is with republicans, it's a big teal del with voters in general. to rise above her the presidential candidates, but it's rising above the feud they're having. it's a huge opportunity for her, in fact, this ability to -- there are she does not want to disagree with barack obama,

this nomination fight. she wants to be shoulder to shoulder with him on the issues that matter to democratic voters. when she gets to the general election, she's going to be looking for space from obama. foreign policyhe moment gives her that opportunity. >> watch her, based on her interview, watched her on the question on tax increases. it's a looming issue. up, richard haas, ben carson and ted, after this.

>> our first guest tonight is the president of the council on

fellow relations and a debontay of a place called quartros. richard haass, thanks for coming back. president obama gave his talk last night. i think you felt he fell short in a variety of ways. >> it was essentially a stay the speech.ind of no new initiatives, which would have been more understandable if cusp of great breakthroughs of success. i would have thought he would a greater intensification of the bombing campaign, perhaps more direct for the kurds, much more pressure on turkey, a greater number of special operations forces. there are things i thought he should have done to also sense of urgency. you have to do it over there and also not do things at home. he doesu understand why not? talk about the reasons. presumably he doesn't actually believe in doing them. that? what is it that gives you a sense that knows are not things

he wants to embrace, not just not say but not embrace as matters of substance? >> two possible answers. he's analytically looked at all of them and has simply concluded they wouldn't pain-gain ratio is wrong. the other is, there's a general -- narrative of this administration. that explains what we haven't what we didn't do in libya, the timetable in, say, afghanistan, the decision to pull troops out of iraq. this would be consistent with a commitmentsction in of significant uses of military force. appalled asg to be an american? not blaming either side, but the an oval office address about this extraordinary challenge the country faces and every republican and he doesn't seem to do anything to reach out to them, environmenteate an where there can be bipartisanship? is that an aspiration i'm foolish to have? >> you're right to have it.

what worries me is the gap between the seriousness of the challenges we face and the lack of seriousness in the debate. virtually every one of the things we wanted to say in the region, how many forces do we at home,hat type, where do we -- how do we move privacy and between collective security? civil liberties and national security? these are serious trade-offs. we've got to be able to have something of a national conversation. have the don't environment right now. >> after 9/11, i remember president bush standing with a statement.doing what do you think would happen if he said, i want to do an you, mitch mcconnell, would he refuse to go? >> i don't think there would the follow-up. after seven years of this presidency, this is about as polarized as it gets. it's not just an these issues. issues, the full range of public policy issues.

worse.ust couldn't be it's one thing to fight about the budget. but is it possible to rebuild this? >> it's not impossible. but it's been an awfully long time since politics stopped at the water's edge. in vietnam, we had fierce debates. in the iraq war, we did. we're having it again now. talk about dysfunction in washington. it has reached proportions that broader than i've ever seen in my life. >> so we were talking before about hillary clinton and her a more hawkish onctitioner or thinker foreign policy than president obama and more hawkish than her husband probably. once someone that a lot of republicans admired in terms national security and armed services credentials. john mccain, a lot of people in pentagon. help tohink she would overcome that position, or would she be an equally polarizing were to become president?

>> i think she has a decent chance for two reasons. one, she's politically more conservativive or hawkish. second-of all, she has a pretty good track record of working across the aisle. the senate, in think she also learned from some of her experience in the white house. own sense is she's more comfortable today. also, barack obama, he hasn't, ways, reached out. i know it's not always pleasant, for thet he signed up job, and part of politics is the give and take and all that. iser seven years, this clearly part of the job he won't miss when he gives it up. hillary clinton might be more comfortable doing it. when it comes to substance, do you think that the positions she's staking out right now in terms of national security, on syria, islamic state, et cetera, are as intel electrically and -- intellectually and strategically consistent? >> she said no combat troops but open to larger numbers of u.s. special

operations forces. she talked about creating some type of humanitarian zone. she seems to be willing to get more involved than he does. the short answer is yes. >> one of the major arguments marks is a everybody muslim arab force, ground troops. no indication that any of the countries who would be expected to provide those troops of interest init doing that. >> he's right and you're right. it's a great idea on paper. happen. going to >> it's not gonna happen. so should it not -- shouldn't it the debate of anymore? >> also, there's one flaw with it. even if they were there to isis, what happens the day after? the only people who will stay and hold the territory after you take it will be syrians, in the syria. iraqis in the case of iraq. we could use some special operations type from jordan and countries, but the bulk of the ground forces have to be iraqi in iraq., >> not gonna happen either.

>> i would not rule it out. iraq -- >> trainened and effective. >> i think the bigger question is syria. can you -- two scenarios. one is one day you could work with the syrian government. need a different leadership there. until then, would we work with some syrian tribes? we're talking about working with people who are already in the fight. i think that's the direction we have to go, but it's going to be slow and difficult. >> 17 candidates. have you heard one of them with interesting idea? >> ha ha! in about how to deal with isis? >> um... the bottom line is there's no solution here. you've got to do things in the region, things at home. multifaceted challenge. the president got into some parts of it last night. has come forward with something that is truly persuasive. >> one of the things president criticized for last night, even by the new york sometimes, was not saying anything about what we're going to try to do to try to combat that isilanda machine has become, that islamic state has become.

what could a president do about that? >> you got to change the military momentum. play.s a momentum what we wouldn't do, by not doing certain things militarily, he hurt himself. you can have a digital strategy to comereal thing has from muslim and arab voices. they've got to do that themselves. >> richard haass, thank you. i didn't mean to rush you there at the end. to it's almost time for me rush you. when we come back, our interview with ben carson, after this.

>> yesterday in the great state of ila we sat down with ben carson.

there's one topic that's been at the top of a lot of voters minds in iowa. experience. of them?ou state by people like -- are rightly concerned about our protection. when we going to do overseas were going to do in the middle east? they listen to people and say you obviously don't know how to provide any kind of leadership. what people forget is that it's not the loudest voice that is always the wisest voice. we need to start looking for wisdom. what is doing surgery at johns hopkins, it was not even on the map.

and eight it was number one in the country. -- theg of a big company ceo of a big company does not know everything. i.t. mergers and acquisitions finance or smell hr, the whole gamut of different things. it's very much the same. people who expect the president you needverything -- someone who knows how to utilize the resources. we've all sorts of resources available area only people that had a 2 a.m. in the morning call. and you have to clean the information weekly and make a very quick decision. >> in island there is a political battle for the evangelical vote.

some believe in senator ted cruz. where do you stand on the issue of abortion? >> my responses they should all go back and look at what i do. of course the rhetoric to be toned down. but some would say linning the right. that's not what i'm blaming -- that someone saying it all. i'm saying the only way were able to make arrests if we sit down and talk to each other. life.eds to look at my i think i can safely say i'm the operated on is babies all my long to save them area of operated on babies inside of the world. i've come up with new techniques and procedures to a live.

i got a lot of controversy early on. but now it's become a standard feature that continues to save lives all over the world. there should be no question about where i and on that issue. general, it's in very easy to sit around and talk about the but let's see what people actually do. >> just to be clear what is your position? >> my position is that it should not be done. i believe it is murder. that's just telling the truth. >> including rape and incessant? >> including rape and. i know people who are the result of rate. evangelist was the result of a rate.

his mother tried to get an abortion but it got botched. accepted it and use had a positive impact on hundreds of thousands of lives. >> what about syrian refugee camps? later you will be in inner-city chicago, why do you go to these places? some criticize you and say you are learning on the job. when you go to these places marketing expect to see you russian mark >> when their problems like with the syrian refugees, i want to find out for myself what's going on. if we listen to the standard narrative, we have to take in terms of thousands of people or we are helpless in the dust we are heartless individuals. those are not the only thing. -- it demonstrates our humanity that we do have a hard.

but also demonstrates that we have brains. to take care of them in the refugee camp supply the jordanians with money, to start talking to the curb about helping to shelter some of those ,eople in the northeast corner all we need is a little bit of research and some or. >> what is your message to the other candidate #>> my messages go there to yourself. baltimoreoit, go to go to burlington go to the middle east. find out what is actually going on. >> i would just say we need the very best candidates that we can possibly have. it's time to get away from politics as usual. if i'm not the candidate, i want someone to be a better candidate than i am.

some of you can make that manifest. i will do everything i can do to make sure that i am the best candidate because i believe the election next year is absolutely crucial. >> are you planning any other trips of middle east? >> i will have more trip. in the last year i've been to israel and plan on going there again. as well as some other international travel. think the more i you do that with other people, the more you get first-hand knowledge. mark: i thanks to dr. carson. dr. carson announced he is taking a trip to africa. up next, more on the breaking story about donald trump new proposed ban of muslim in -- muslim immigration to the u.s.. ♪

this very moment the political news nihilism trump. late this afternoon he put out a press release claiming all muslims should be barred from entering the united states. that idea has been condemned by democrats and republicans. lindsey graham called it absurd. wrote trump has entered john birch society. it's important to save conservatism from him.

appearedement by trump just as we were about to start the show in the political world has gone crazy. what do you make of it? mark: first, i think he would say -- people think he's doing this because he fell behind in one poll. i think that's wrong i think he did it because he thinks it's the right thing to do. i think a lot of voters will like this and that could be a turning point in having people announce him including perhaps the rnc and some members of congress who have not done so. -- a we apply a public political lens everything on the show. i'm inclined to do that is anyone, but in this case i really do feel we have to stop and take a breath and say it a second this is a presidential candidate and by almost every measure a front runner who was

saying that american immigration policy should be determined by religion. not refugees or suspected terrorists, all muslims they should be barred from entering the u.s. government although some kind of threat to the united date. i think it's genuinely a dangerous and irresponsible horrible thing to a. it will have ramifications around the world. it will make headlines and it is a huge win for islamic a to have a republican presidential candidate of stature say something that is genuinely un-american. mark: all the reasons you said i think this could be a standpoint that a turning point. he chose to put out a statement. in any other campaign of any republican or democrat who is ever run for president, if the candidate said i want to take a that immigration policy should be based on religion, they would be stopped.

this shows that he has no one around him who will stop him. i think a lot of voters will think this is a perfectly sensible idea. john: the fact that there are many reactionary voters makes that true. but there is no other way to describe this other than reactionary. there is no way to describe this. ideal ishink the best this is been to announce by other candidates in strong terms. said this would be -- would not be my policy but did not announce him. we've not heard from everyone yet, but like i said being denounced by other candidates at this point is not news or influential. i'm interested to see what paul

ryan and mitch mcconnell say about what the rnc says about it. john: let's get the republicans pretext now this obvious the political. it has huge potential consequences if they start to say this is the kind of rhetoric i will notthem -- support donald trump is the republican nominee. that would be a turning point. mark: the other thing that will be interesting is to see talk radio. they are more sympathetic or positions like this, do any prominent talk radio has come i would not bek surprised if this is the first time he backs off. i could be wrong but i would not be surprised if he tries to modulate this. john: it would be hard to do for the reasons you said before. nothing in the trump world is carefully crafted. this is a statement.

the premeditated thing this is not off-the-cuff this is nominee to the campaign rally or response to question. he sat down and wrote this and then send it out to orders. i don't know how you back down from that and pretend you didn't mean you said it. mark: i want here from newt gingrich george w. bush dick cheney, it will be a big test for all of them. we'll talk about this again tomorrow i can tell you now area john: coming up, the ivy league and racism. when the come back in 60 seconds. ♪

mark: calls to address the complicated issue of race in america have gone viral. college students in particular are leading the call. just a few weeks ago students at instant university of protest against racial tension on campus,. wilsonked or woodrow name to be removed from the school of international affairs. i sat down with the department of african americans that is to talk about it. he is the author of the soon-to-be released democracy and lack. he is not taken a position on renaming the wilson's, he is supportive of dialogue with students. >> i think it's important that we take an honest look -- and unflinching look at the complexity of a past of the they hold that views and good views.

we need to understand what the iconography of the country represents. he they represent our best collective aspirations. for princeton to interrogated most important goal woodrow wilson. by every account no one denies the fact that he was in fact a racist. he was committed to white supremacy. he was also the architect of modern liberalism. he did so much in terms of foreign policy with regard -- regardless of the league of nations. but that was -- but we cannot forget his commitment to white supremacy. we have to ignore what that symbol represents for them.

before the students actually brought this to the table, wilson was dealt with in some way at princeton. i think their arguments about what the symbol represents. and then there is the arguments we will have to pull up so much area we cannot redact the ugliness of our history. john: what do you think the best response to that is? many of the major historical figures. if we do this where does it to make a want distinction between two different kinds of claims. one would be taking for example taking the n-word out of have been. -- out of huck finn.

trying to wipe clean the ugliness of our past area that seems to be untenable. and if we we are don't take seriously and confront honestly who we are, we could never imagine ourselves on the differently. i don't want to say that removing woodrow wilson name from the building of our public policy school is equivalent to redacting the n-word. what i want to suggest is that -- the symbols we choose are important. an exaggerated example of this would be the fall of the berlin wall. the collapse of the soviet union. what it meant for people to take on and destroy the statue of one and. lenin.ue of

to destroy representations of saddam hussein area and that iconography represents a particular era and way of imagining the nation. is notck those symbols simply an immature act to arrest history. -- to erase history. ourepresents the best of collective aspirations. that is different from ridding ourselves of the ugliness of who we are. i think we need to keep those two things separate. i also think we kind of need to understand the way in which race has been so washed over in our country. it's been so very. everything.mber john: student protesters are

pampered teenagers who are scared of an idea that challenges the worldview. i assume you take some exception to that. >> that stupid. i don't want to sell mike and arrogant ivy league answer, but i think that's a stupid argument. if it wasn't for what the students are doing and what they've done, we would not be having a conversation about a figure like woodrow wilson. it's easy for us to dismiss the importance of the symbol of the confederate line because we tend to displace the burden of racism on to that region. woodrow wilson is more complicated because he had national stature. it's not about being called her spoiled. it's not about free speech are

being unwilling to listen the counterargument, i honestly don't want to listen to an argument that the gas i have to endure someone making a claim that i am less than or inferior. rightt think it's fair or for an institution like yale to have john c calhoun was a trainer as the symbol of a residential college. it makes no sense to me. i find all sorts of arguments not only disingenuous, but difficult to take seriously. john: thanks for that. genuine 12 -- out january 12 and is available for preorder. ♪

mark: remember all that the role ted cruz's campaign put on you to. it's all free. means we can use it. >> this here is been a good year. how is businessman? >> it's great. >> that's what you like to see. just howes you realize precious and fragile freedom is. there is no guarantee that we will remain a free nation unless we stand up. we are fighting for the world. we're fighting in a revolution.

who wants to say grace? quite amen. they gave us candy. >> candy at school? >> not a day goes by the my mom is not lifting me up in prayer. for hours. mark: until tomorrow, sayonara.

rishaad: the eighth of december area into breaking news. slightly less. economists are expecting a record trade balance. it looks like we are seeing that trade balance narrower than forecast. narrower than october numbers. we just figured the game so far. this is what it is. 343.1 billion yen for the trade balance. that's down from 407 and a half.

also previous 393.2. why is this happening? we are seeing the imports are off. following three point 1% that is lower than what was expected. we're a deepening of the slowdown. drop isthe actual 3.7% further decline from october. wise, the forecast for an 11% drop in imports. it looks like it would come out as five points x percent drop. low commodity prices low oil prices a lot of cheap oil for china to buy. t