month. amazing stuff. stuff.n: amazing where are we? about 15 seconds away. futures in london, a little bit higher. nejra cehic has the european open. nejra: i do indeed. let's see how markets are reacting to the china data, the drop in both imports and exports. asian stocks weren't immune. we saw a drop there. markets, ituropean looks like the ftse 100, pretty much flat. we are seeing a little bit of a slowdown. what stick it to some of the stocks we are watching this let's look at some of the stocks we are watching this morning. keep your eye on these two stocks. people have been saying that orange is an early discussions about buying bouygues'skeep telm and media assets. what could happen in this potential deal is that bouygues might actually carve out its construction unit and maintain a minority stake in the combined company.

don't just keep an i on these stocks. it looks like they are moving higher. keep an eye on other players in in europe. market moving onto anglo american, we are talking about commodities. the slump in commodities across the board, anglo-american holding its investor day today. we might see a statement coming out about now, the investor day happening between 9:00 and 11:00. that stock at the unit doesn't seem to be moving, but it is the second worst performer on the ftse 100 index this year. just a quick check on commodities. you can see wti and brent both rebounding. copper though, still down. those metals, at a six-year low. guy: we have news. we have news on anglo american. as we heard earlier on from jesse, the worst kept secret -- the dividend has been suspended, the second half of 2015 and

2016. there also making an announcement on the structure of the business. jonathan: i think this is interesting, consolidating the business from six businesses to three businesses. i think the dividend news wasn't really the news. the disposals and the consolidation, there is little bit of extra news. let's bring in michael metcalfe. us, karen hodgson. welcome to tv. what do you make of the dividend news and the consolidation news, the idea that you streamline the business more and increase the disposal target? >> as you say, the dividend was probably one of the worst kept secrets in the city. the best case scenario investors could've hoped for was a conversion to a payout ratio. that's gone. that's going to save a significant amount of money for the business. the restructuring is definitely in response to the commodities outlook at this moment.

considered sale is something that has been reiterated. we considered that is one of the better parts of the business it could sell. billion dollar price tag, if that is achieved, that will exceed the company's guidance. they are not talking about $4 billion worth of divestments. there is a perceived capital shortfall at spot pricing. that is something the company has to reconsider, especially if it wants to maintain its investment grade rating. guy: this isn't enough? kieron: there still has to be a response. it's also going to come down to the my new shirt, which we will see at 9:00, and how the company is going to position itself for stability going forward from 16, 17, and 18. nejra: it's difficult because you are often at the most pressure, but the two businesses they have highlighted would probably see a better price closer to book.

jonathan: the dividend policy changes to a payout ratio, but they suspend the second half of 2015 and 2016 dividend. this is starting to sound a lot like glencore in the sense of restructuring, the challenges over the debt, the challenge of the spot prices. the question i wanted to ask you, the diversified mining model is ok when prices are coming up. the way down, the only thing that matters, if you are the lowest cost producer. is a diversified mining strategy under pressure, and is that still a decent strategy going forward? kieron: with mining, the idea behind divestment is to give you protection. no one ever forecasted a complete collapse in commodities across the board. there would've been the perception that if oil was stable, we could absorb losses in iron ore. if copper was week, we could make something back in aluminum. everything is off across the

board. it doesn't matter if you are a specialized minor, diversified. you are going to be hurt. within diversified portfolios, these businesses are run as specialist units they are.all hurting , and it's coming together under one big unit -- one big on bella. jonathan: 360 pence. we could've asked, where is the bottom? where is the entry point? where do i start picking up the pieces? is it 360 yet go, if they do a share sale at 125 them and we think that's ok, what is the entry point for anglo? kieron: you can point out the fact that anglo, the market cap is less than the business it spun off. it underperformed against any other diversified miner. there are so many aspects that concern the commodity markets, and i think the biggest one for investors right now is, despite the diversified miners being

deep value plays, the simple fact of the matter is mining companies produce an asset that they have absolutely no control over the price that it is sold. that instills a lot of fear in investors in a downward trajectory. there is no time investors look at it and say, i am going to look at this in two or three years time. how is the profile looking? they don't know. there is no way of telling. guy: if you are a smart guy with a bunch of cash, and you are trying to figure out where your entry point is -- i'm talking this buying businesses -- goes not just for the minors, but across the whole thing. what do i do? you've got a bunch of cash. what is the strategy? michael: you wait for a signal that demand is coming back. one such signal, for example, might be that the federal reserve is confident enough to raise rates. it is things like that that , while it looks

countercyclical, that might be the signal of confidence investors need to know global demand will be at 3%. for all the supply issues we talked about, it's deep value, under owned. that is perhaps the time you put the money to work. jonathan: i was looking at the short interest on anglo before we came on. glencore was the proxy for china. it was the stock that got beaten a no matter what ivan glasson berg did. targeter what the debt was, no matter where they were. is anglo american the new glencore? kieron: i think investors view anglo as the proxy for south africa. the majority of earnings still from south africa, or from an investor's perspective, south africa. corporate as a whole is a closer proxy for china. that is one of the reasons we have seen the low-key

announcement that the regulators are looking at the shortselling .f copper the impact it has on the perception of the chinese economy. value, butns deep the point of entry has to be a point of potential confidence. at this moment in time, investors are still concerned whether or not anglo is a business -- as a business retains the liquidity to grow. guy: is there a credit event coming? kieron: if we were to see another 25% step down in commodity prices, the probability would increase. at $40. is trading off, it's not10 unreasonable. you could get 50% off. some people are calling for it. kieron: absolutely. to not forecast that would be remiss, and it's difficult. jonathan: final question --

angle cuts the dividend. glencore, doing the same thing. when do we get to a point when rio and bhp have to do the same? kieron: i think we are already there. investors are already looking at these businesses and saying, this dividend at this moment in time, while you might be able to take the cost on your balance sheet and increase leverage, unless you are going to come out so we leverage the business and absorb these and maintain the dividend, i think it would be best to take the pain, take the cuts, and give investors the opportunity to start that rebuilding process. jonathan: great to have you with us this morning, anglo down by 2.33%. -2.33% onling around the year, down around 70%. glencore, little bit worse than that. the ugly ducklings on the ftse 100 this year -- where are we? nine minutes since the open of

the session. we will look at the latest export and input -- import data from china. later, ceos talk climate change. geb trioalk about the and how they are creating a global coffee empire. nine minutes into the session in london, the ftse 100, lower by 1/10 of one thing percent. this is "on the move." good morning. ♪

guy: welcome back. ."u are watching "on the move that is the city of london. we were expecting the footsie to open higher. we are down by 2/10 of one thing percent. let's get you up to speed. abenomics has received a shot in the arm after revised gdp data shows japan avoided recession last quarter. the threey grew 1% in months through september rather than shrinking 0.8%. pimco is going for some heavyweight names in an effort to reassure its clients. the company announced that former fed chief ben bernanke, former british prime minister gordon brown, and former ecb head jean-claude trichet a will be part of a new global advisory board. china's biggest bank icbc said it punished 137 staff for breaches of communist party discipline, such as accepting gifts or starting their own businesses.

this comes as a corruption crackdown sweeps through the chinese financing industry. for more on the stories and others, head to the bloomberg terminal and bloomberg.com. jonathan: another top story, chinese exports falling for a fifth month in november, while the import slump stretched to a record 13 straight month. let's bring in malcom scott. great to have you with us. i'm seeing month on month on month on month. i wonder what the message is in the data right now. what is the headline message. malcom: the rest of the world is doing china no favors. china isn't going to be able to export its way out of the growth slide, but china isn't doing the rest of the world any favors. it is importing less. on the volume side, it may not be important too much less, what on the price side because of the big declines in commodity prices. we are seeing a big slump in the year on year figures on the

import front. that moderated slightly in november. maybe there are some signs of stabilization creeping in. over the whole year view, we are seeing china contribute less to global demand. jonathan: just to pick you up on that point, people always try to look at the pmi and say, we are bottoming out, things are not as slow or aggressive in the downturn as they were before. is the import data telling you that, and what does it say about the domestic recovery? when economists talk about the new engine of growth, i don't see it in the import data. malcolm: that is exactly what is happening. we are seeing a slow down in old growth drivers. there is less imported steel. indeed, there is more steel headed abroad. there is less call. some old growth drivers are still waiting. residential construction is slowing. onare seeing the demand side consumption, on services picking up, but they both involve less

imported goods. especially once we take the price of fax from the commodity slumped into account, we really are seeing less of a global kick from china's growth this year. in china's domestic economy, looking at the inside, there is also a bit of a growth gap that seems to be emerging. yes, there are bright spots in the economy, services, consumption. employment is holding up well. all of that isn't enough to abate this slide in growth, this steady tick down to a low to moderate level. jonathan: great to have you with us on the program. guy: let's bring in our guest metcalfe andel kieron hodgson. how do the stockpiles of commodities look like in china, and how much visibility do it have about how much copper there is, how much iron there is, etc.? kieron: if i'm honest with you,

it doesn't look particularly good. the transparency in the data has been something of a concern for market watchers, so we have baked that into expectations. we kind of know that the data coming out can often be sketchy, but we can even evaluate and come to a reasonable conclusion by looking at data from other data points outside of china, and then looking at inflow and outflow data. the issue you've got, and you hit the nail on the head, is quite simply supply. supply and stockpiles. rising supply, falling demand, resulting in higher inventory levels on a global basis, although china is the major consumer of all commodities, is the ultimate driver for lower prices. got is a lot of companies reacting to lower prices by producing more. that's the biggest issue. you've got to break that trend.

the companies as a whole, industries as a whole need to bite the bullet, cut production, and reduce the amount of slack and inventory in the pipeline. until that happens, you are going to continue to see declines in prices. you see copper off 25%. lead is only off 10%. people are raving about it. it's not a pretty picture. this doesn't instill confidence for investors looking at commodities as an investment class. there has to be leadership by the producers in order to reduce stockpiles on a global basis to try to at least get price stability, what alone improvement. jonathan: the commodity market is flashing red. the trade numbers are flashing red. bel me why i shouldn't concerned about the global economy. 10 years ago, these kinds of numbers from china, people would be concerned about global

growth. people now say, things are changing. should we not be concerned? michael: you have to be really careful with the trade numbers right now. in value terms, we are looking at a collapse in global growth that looks similar to 2008. guy: the overall volume? michael: exactly. the volume numbers aren't great, that they are nowhere near as bad as the value numbers -- of course, remember, exchange rates have moved an awful lot this year. that's another big drag on the global trade numbers. yes, trade is soft, but there are a lot of price effects in that. that's why we don't panic yet. jonathan: i want to turn to the economist in you. gdp and trade income relationship, the ratio is changing. what is happening there? income? well, the trade jonathan: what is happening?

michael: the main thing that drives these trends over the longer term is demographics. the main reason, for instance, why europe is in such a big trade surplus in part is demographics. europe has got the biggest chunk of its population and the 30-65 age group. that explains that. china is a developing economy. . eventually , it surplus will disappear. -- eventually, it's surplus will disappear. the one thing i would say regarding the implications for global growth, back to the is that it'stion, soft, but not as soft as some of the headlines look. the other thing we have seem to have forgotten is, we focus on commodities, but this is a tax cut for everyone else. we did this last year. it didn't really come through. we talked about the benefit to consumers.

it is still there. there are other sectors that benefit from this. guy: there is a positive in there. michael: i'm trying to be positive. guy: the glass is half-full. we will come back to that. the question is, with all the stimulus, with all the commodities, with everything else, when does it start to pick up? we will talk about that in a minute. kieron hodgson, joining us. michael metcalfe, staying with us. up next, the chancellor of the exchequer tells an audience that britain has got its mojo back. ♪

>> my message to you on this visit to new york is that britain has got its mojo back, and we are going to be with you as we reassert western values, confident that our best days lie ahead. a very happyt was chancellor george osborne speaking in new york. he said the u.k. stands ready with the u.s. to reassert western values. he also spoke about britain's relationship with the european union. >> britain is not part of some of these central eu projects, like the single currency, the euro, nor indeed the common border area. has devised,union,

does not really provide for a large member state, the second-biggest economy in europe, the second this contributor to the eu budget, sitting outside of these central arrangements, and yet that is the settled role of the british people. we need to make sure these arrangements work better for britain, and indeed work better for those who are trying to make their currency, the euro, stronger. guy: george osborne, speaking in new york. michael metcalfe, still with us. we have a brexit debate that hasn't started yet. when it starts to get going and we start to understand the dynamics of the arguments, how do you think markets are going to react? michael: i think we will have learned from the scottish referendum where for quite a while markets ignored that come in than one poll changed it, and we had a lot of volatility in sterling in particular. is a broaderexit and bigger issue, it bigger

impact on the economy certainly, and so because of that, having had that scottish referendum, i think we will start to look -- as soon as we get the date, we will look at the polls closely. one of the recent polls had a out.n favor of the markets didn't react yet, but as soon as we have a date, that will be a focus. we'vean: michael, i think done on around the world asset class trip. thank you very much for joining us. 26 minutes into the session in london. the ftse 100, opening lower. the ftse off by 4/10 of 1%. the dax, down by 6/10 of 1%. 3%.minors, down by up next on this program, we will take it from the miners to cop 21. we will talk wind farms with the boss of a firm expected to benefit from investment in

energy efficiency. ♪

jonathan: welcome back. 30 minutes into the trading day. this is what the equity markets look like. i think this is an odd morning. ftse is down, miners are down. rest of it is odd, were mixed up. the generators are down in germany. it's not a clearly defined story, it's not like miners are dragging everybody lower. you switch up the board, bloomberg commodity index dropped to a 1999 low. a handoff on a metric ton of

iron ore. brent crude bouncing off the six-year low, down by 8/10 of 1%. euro, and dollar/yen. let's go to nejra cehic now for your top stories. nejra: the focus is very much on telecoms and miners. telecoms are the biggest gainers on the stoxx 600. what's driving a lot of these companies higher, including iliad, is that orange seems to be in early discussions about buying bou gues. we could see this conglomerate carve out its construction unit and retain a minority stake in ygues.mbined orange-bou ahi,ce, led by patrick dra

made a bid for bouygues. also, the focus on miners. i've highlighted bhp billiton because it is one of the biggest losers, but we are also seeing glencore down. anglo american is set to cut for the first time since 2009, holding investors between and :00 and 11 court london time -- between 9:00 and 11:00 london time. this is about metals down, iron ore down, all after that china data. jonathan: it is the final week of the united nations climate change conference in paris, and caroline hyde is there. over to you.

caroline: good morning. wayne systems are likely to be the number one winner if we get it successful deal from the cop21 negotiation. thank you for joining me. $13.5 trillion could flow if we get a good deal. 40% of that could be to renewables. have you started a plan, how he would win out? >> first of all, we should see a very good demand. it's important for us. thisve high hopes that will bring more clarity in long-term policy. we actually have positive momentum today, i would say. we see good growth and orders. -- growth in orders. overall -- caroline: have you started to

think about how much revenues could pick up? >> of course, we look at our order in 72 countries and we have plans for the markets and we are looking at different scenarios. the long-term policies. of course, we constantly deal with scenario planning. caroline: which countries will win out the vote? which you see the most exciting revenue streams? >> we have a good demand, and if you look at our three regions, which is north america, asia-pacific, and europe, we see good growth. caroline: talk to us about north america. obama came here to make some significant pledges, but still there is political divide when it comes to the republican party, many feeling that they shouldn't be investing so much in renewables. does this political issue concern you? >> the u.s. is of course a very

big market. it's a big part of our revenue. i'm very happy with the situation in the u.s., as we have gained share, and have very good inflow from the u.s. market. we will probably, within a couple weeks, know if it will be prolonged or not in the u.s. market. that is of course an important indicator for us, and important in the short-term. i think that the clean power plant, if it gets adopted in the u.s., has a more long-term impact than short-term impact. if it will happen, it is another thing that is positive for renewables. the u.s. also has very good wind resources, but the first milestone is around where we expect this. caroline: so these tax credits

are going to likely be supported. when will you stand on your empty without the supporters tax credit? thatsaw a recent survey wind has gone down with more than 50% since 2009. it's sure that the competitiveness is increasing, and we are very close, when you compare. you see in some states we are already below because of all the fossil fuels. they competitiveness is decreasing. we see a very good cost development in the u.s., but we must always remember that this is a regulated market, which sincethat we compete -- we are competing in an overall regulated market, we need a system that takes care of that,

and makes sure that we get to know the market, which is something that we would welcome. onevel playing field, so no -- if we get the long-term plan for that scenario, with the cost inpollution, i am confident our industry possibility to deliver. caroline: on pollution, do you advocate a carbon tax? >> i think it is fair that there is a cost on coal. i think it is a fair proposition. caroline: what price? >> i think it is very hard to will -- i think that we that it will depend on radiant to radiant. i think it is a fair proposition that if you cause a big cost to society, it you have to take part of that burden. think that it will be a

simple system, if you take the cost of pollution into the question. you will have a much more open marketplace. caroline: we have been talking about scaling in north america. we just heard yesterday that you made a $60 million acquisition. that's about the servicing element. will we see servicing become more important than making of wind turbines? >> i believe that's so. important, and when we launch the newest threat, -- i think as this industry matures, that serve as part of the business will increase in importance. versus -- we have about 50 gigawatts of service. it is increasing, and as the

industry matures, we have seen that no other industry gets more important. i am very excited -- caroline: for acquisition? >> no, not in our plans, but we will always take a look. caroline: the ceo of ve stas, likely to be one of the biggest gainers if we get a deal coming out of cop21. we will hand things back to you, guy. guy: thank you, caroline. caroline hyde out in paris. let's go from green to orange. are we going to see a deal? we just had a statement coming through from bouygues, who said they have no statements to telecom,from the reaffirming its presence. we will talk about that next. ♪

guy: good morning, this is "on the move." the ftse is lower this morning 42 minutes into the session. anglo american off by almost 4%, as the company scraps the dividends. cash and commodities tumbling, iron ore saw the $40 per metric in the commodity market. let's cross over to nejra cehic for your business flash. nejra: morgan stanley has named a new talk treasury

trader. bank plansmes as the to cut as much as a quarter of its fixed income stock globally. lebron james has signed an unprecedented lifetime contract with nike. terms weren't released, but the sports agent who represented michael jordan estimates its value between 40 forge million dollars and $500 billion. nike says that he provides "significant value." edf is to be removed from the cac 40 on december 21. taking its place will be a shopping wall operator. it will be relegated to the cac next 20 index. guy: thank you very much. there have been talks to buy bouygues, and joining us to talk more about this is reese david. very clear statement coming out

this morning. "we are staying in this industry and we have future in this industry." is that the logical thing to say? do they have a long-term future in should they stay? do, and they probably the way it might pay now, they will retain a minority stake in telecom and tv. we have seen instances of companies denying earlier, but what we do know is that a a few weeks back, they had advisers explore options for expansion in europe, and we know that the telecom providers and france are looking at consolidation. this is one thing they have been talking about. guy: we will talk about the regulatory issues and a moment. who has leverage? buoyges, orange? who needs to steal more? ruth: i wouldn't want to put it

-- to go with one side, but oranges the largest carrier in france. if they manage to go through that, it would probably help them retain that market position. have that all pans out and whether they would agree -- in ne, this is not a man who -- guy: the regulatory hurdles, how big are they? let's say these two sites come up with a price, shake on it. went to the regulators say? ruth: if you look back, the regulators have been saying that they don't want carriers combining. that in denmark, they had to scrap their deal because they said it would hurt consumers. it is not going to be an easy regulatory fight. jonathan: quick question.

how ido -- ruth: not very well. jonathan: do they try and muddy the waters? how does that story play out. they are the aggressive ones. ruth: one of the things we have been hearing is that there is probably going to be some consolidation. who starts it? is orange no starting it? once they do, maybe others will come and look at some combinations. so ifve all of these, this happens, it will be long. the our deals reporter in city of london, thank you very much for joining us. , a caffeine kick. more on the multibillion-dollar deal of austria was private family getting one step closer to ruling the world. the ftse 100 is way down, miners off, dax down by 26 points. in the mining industry, the ftse down toward a decade low, and

anglo american suspending the dividend, the stock up by 4%. ♪

guy: welcome back. that is what you are looking at this morning, london. miners are down, one of the big factors. supermarkets are higher. i think it is hsbc note. the otherinto one of

big stories we are focusing on this morning, haven't touched on it enough. coffee, another commodity in focus. looks like a wealthy austrian family are now on something of a caffeine fueled quest to roll the coffee world. the investment firm that manages their fortune has acquired during green mountain. this is an interesting family, an interesting group of investors. people?these >> this is actually quite a small group of people. the family is just for individuals, all siblings. it is a couple executive and their long trusted the tenants. it's remarkable that this very small group of people just made this enormous deal. it is part of a trend you see of billionaire families really making huge deals. than $16worth more

billion. jonathan: coffee -- we have been talking about metals and iron. like coffee? wha-- why coffee? >> it is one of the few areas in the grocery aisle that is growing. --not, there is a credit there is a crackdown on soda and sugar, but coffee is one area where you are seeing tons of growth and everybody wants to get in on the coffee market. coffee.y drinks something like 80% of americans drink coffee. jonathan: and they want to do what? anheuser-busch has the beer market -- >> they want to be the anheuser-busch, the budweiser of coffee. they want to be the coffee name. it's kind of a nauseating thought. [laughter] >> the coffee idea behind it. everybody drinks it, it is popular. nestle is the big giant here.

guy: the remarkable thing about this is that's it's a $14 billion deal. are we expecting much more of those kinds of deals from this company? >> absolutely. they are really going after this coffee market. they want to build a coffee empire. it's not just them, but other family-owned businesses, other billionaires making moves like this. they are becoming more inquisitive and getting more confident. they are doing it on their own, not necessarily teaming up with private equity. guy: why is bigger better? the reason it is getting bigger is because people are drinking beer, the margins are suffering, you need to take out more. lie in the coffee industry do you need to do that, if this is a growing sector of the market and people are paying more? that seems counterintuitive. you think it would go the other way. >> you would think. we are seeing if they can go after these markets.

that really matters, and they are also having a lot of brands under this one umbrella. they can do that and no one is the wiser. coffees very boutique brand that is owned by a fairly big, monopolistic company. jonathan: thank you very much for joining us. that's your early-morning coffee. here's the day ahead. first up, investor day for anglo american. that kicks off the medical km u.k. time. do not miss the news that comes out of that. we willittle bit later, get you industrial and manufacturing production. also this morning, the final number for eurozone gdp. the mining story is absolutely front and center this morning. miners are really on a downward trajectory, as you can see. bhp, anglo american all trading sharply to the downside, this as

anglo cuts its somewhat unsurprisingly -- is shedding businesses enough? that is the big question. let's take you out and think picture. bigger this is not today. the year today picture is -- jonathan: ugly, ugly, ugly. glencore up by 72% -- glencore off by 72%. then you see the asset sales and we ask the question -- the real news out of anglo american is not the dividend, it is the target -- guy: for billion dollars from $3 billion previously. they are flooding the market with assets at a time when the commodity, the underlying commodity, is traded low. jonathan: these guys are selling stuff that is easy to sell. stuff asto be selling

close to cost as you possibly can. they are getting the good stuff, so this business is not necessarily getting better, it's just -- you can begin to understand the concentration risk. guy: markets are finally over and anglo-american, with what they did with the dividend, really how to count over that. he is conscious of that and i wonder how he handles things today after he suspended the dividend. he didn't want to do it. he saw the pain coming. he called in the summer. it will be rough in the second half but we have to follow-up. jonathan: what investors want to hear is we are taking the pain, we need to understand exactly what's going on, into a need to trust you. -- and we need to trust you. hopefully that is the message he needs to communicate. guy: and the investor base maintained the commitment to energy and mining, because they want that income.

the big question is the bhp, the rio. do they make the same move after this? jonathan: we are not qualified to answer that question, but our guests -- guy: we are close. guy johnson, thank you very much. it's me, coming up on "the pulse." i will be speaking to the former ceo of bp. if you can drop parallels with opec, here's the man that ran bp in the late 1990's. he knows all about the crude market. he knows what's going on. that conversation we will look forward to. i'm joining tom keene later on in the morning. we have a lot to discuss. commodities are once again going to be dominating the dynamic. what is the dollar due to this story? we haven't really talked about that. we are, or we should be, aching about how the fed will change. we are in for the commodities

trade, we need to get into the dollar trade. lows, stockso 1992 under pressure, but some other assets really filling it. ♪

jonathan: mining meltdown. anglo american scraps of dividends for the first time since the financial crisis. bloomberg's commodity index hit a 1999 low. we will look at the implications of $40 crude and iron ore. china's trade slump. exports line for a fifth straight month and imports decline for a record 13th. good morning and warm welcome to "the pulse," live from london. i'm jonathan ferro, in for francine lacqua.