Skip to main content

tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  December 9, 2015 11:30am-12:01pm EST

11:30 am
almosturopean stocks are clawing their way back from a rebound. the european close starts right now. ♪ brendan: in the next half an hour we will take you from new york to london to berlin. take us off. for most of the day, european stocks were trading lower that half an hour ago, they rose but they did it right at the close. minors rose. to eight 2009n 3% well, for the seventh executive day, before rebounding. as well.s rebounded i have to show you anglo
11:31 am
american, yesterday that was a big story, sinking 12% and cutting two thirds of the workforce. downe stage today, it was 14%, a two day plunge of 26%. look at that, down by a mere 1%. saved by the bell. a rebound in minors and oil stocks. to call theough bottom for oil and commodities? mark barton, only a fool would call a bottom in any kind of commodity, metal or liquid or anything anywhere. a mr. hydeing about bounce. let's talk about dr. jekyll. the stagecoach group. it runs bus services. what's going on? stagecoach is a bus
11:32 am
company and a real company. it operates mega bus in the you knighted states -- in the united states. its biggest decline in four years. this is because of flooding and the paris attacks as well. curbing demand on international routes. twoailed on its bid to run rail franchises here. two questions. are you a traveler? are you a wanderer? have you traveled on mega bus? brendan: we have a chance to talk about rail in the u.k., that makes my two thomas the tank engine sons mad with glee. i was a bus rider. now we will check in on the first word news. courtney donohoe has more. negotiators have introduced a
11:33 am
new, shorter draft about global warming. the talks in paris and in two days. the draft document does not resolve the question about carbon emissions being removed from the economy altogether or just produced. the smog alert in beijing is raising hopes that china will come up with a solution for the pollution. closed schools, shut factories and impose restrictions on driving. china has said it will use more clean energy and eliminate capacity. -- has apologized for the killing of a black teenager who was shot 16 times. the chicago police department needs complete and total reform. the mayor and the police have been criticized since the release of the video showing the death of the video -- the death of the teenager.
11:34 am
baltimore, the officer accused of manslaughter in the case of freddie gray has taken the stand. prosecutors say that he failed to call for a medic, despite pleas for help. wordis a look at the first news right now. you can get more on these and other stories 24 hours a day on bloomberg.com. i am working. hell. brendan: -- i am courtney donohoe. currency has surged since mario draghi an ounce stimulus measures. the stimulus bank has come to his defense. mark: he has. hasecb governing member told reporters in vienna that analysts had unrealistic expectations for stimulus last week. check out this quote.
11:35 am
he says, i believe it was a massing failing -- a massive failing of market analysts. 'sdon't believe the ecb communications policy gave a false signal. answer thee to markets after that accusation. he said it was a massive failing of market analysts. i don't believe the ecb gave a false signal. >> you could make the case that the markets could have been more extreme in their dovish expectations. we did see this -- we were advising clients to take profit ahead of the ecb meeting. if anything, it highlights the fact that when you want to play with trade to an extreme, you are running the risk of pushing officials toohe
11:36 am
far. and it could backfire. have, in youru wildest dreams, expected the euro to jump 3% in one day? valentin: it is a testament to how extreme the positioning was. by thewere surprised sheer scale of the move. but it highlights that what the ecb will continue to do from againsty to lead excessive europe appreciation while trying to preserve as much ammunition as possible for the future battles of the global currency war. grosslywhat investors misjudged last week was the fact -- willrency wars are be with us next year, year after year. the ecb needs to preserve the ammunition for the future. mark: have we seen the lows for the euro in 2015? valentin: i think we could still
11:37 am
drift lower. we have to deal with the fed. we are still seeing demand for euro funding. global corporations and international companies are trying to benefit from the attractive funding conditions in the eurozone. they buy them and then resell them to repay expensive dollar debt. that is an important structural negative factor. $1.06.l for this year is $1.02.could reach closer to parity. will convince investors that europe is not such a bad currency after all. the long term 2017, we see the dollar drifting higher. brendan: when of the reasons we talks of much about the ecb is that there is my much -- there
11:38 am
is very little in the way of structural reform. but that is starting to change. you have sweden's saying they will run a deficit. thatve france saying brussels, we will run a deficit and you can lump it. see -- moreing to fiscal stimulus? valentin: we are on the verge of a sustained cyclical recovery in the euro zone could work to the benefit of euro zone main trading partners. and indeed, europe as a whole. we still have ecb delivering aggressive monetary stimulus. fiscalalso seeing stimulus being put in place on top of all of that, we have the support from lower commodity prices boosting purchasing power. the euro is weak, it is undervalued.
11:39 am
and i guess the clearest --tament to that is the huge so the combination of all of these factors should mean that the eurozone could be on the verge of a sustained sick goal upturn. it is too early to be calling that a positive euro factor in the sense that the ecb will stand in the way of excessive euro appreciation. to the 16 inch or 2017, it could play an important -- policy.t mark: one of the banks that could be smiling is the swiss national bank. is there any need for the past snb to do anything tomorrow? valentin: i don't think so. they will gauge it's the right moment for them
11:40 am
to realize -- to revise. presumably, the disappointing inflation could also mean that their productions for inflation could be revised to the downside. to the extent that it will confirm the market view that the snb is in an accommodative mode. that should mean that the downtrend in the swiss franc is here to stay. mark: great to see you. valentin marinov. head of g 10 fx research. thank you. still ahead on the european close, what does it mean for the remaining players in the chemical and life sciences? we will discuss that next. ♪
11:41 am
11:42 am
11:43 am
mark: welcome back to "bloomberg markets," live in london and new york. this is the european close. i'm here with brendan greeley, his debut on the european close. it could be one of the biggest mergers on the year. dupont are innd late stage merger talks according to people familiar with the matter. aboutg us now to talk what the combined company would look like and what it means for the competitors is a managing editor, aaron commercial. thank you for joining us today. i'm interested in the european side of this deal. what does it mean for them? >> it means that they are nervous. very nervous. they happen under pressure for
11:44 am
months. so now, if we are seeing two of the biggest competitors in the u.s. combining, monsanto has to be shaping in their boots. mark: does monsanto come back to the table, we discussed a few weeks ago that was reconsidering coming back into the game, the syngentao game -- the game. what is this going to look like? >> there are not that many players left to can do this deal. the obvious contender is monsanto. it increases the likelihood of the takeover process. it comes down to monsanto or can china. they would have left to do a deal with dupont. and it looks like it is out of the picture now.
11:45 am
so it only leaves a few players and monsanto needs that deal. mark: if the combined entity actually takes place, the chief executive and chairman -- does he need to go out there and match this dupont-dow deal? >> i think he doesn't need to. i think they will look at them converging, they will have to sell assets. they are also selling -- they are also splitting up into parts. thatnk it is very likely two of the three parts could be in play. and there is a good chance that even for the strongest part of those businesses, they will have to sell parts for the regulatory businesses -- regulatory reasons. time towish we had more talk about this. but he will be back. germany islor of
11:46 am
getting praises today. brendan: she did. not a new position for her to be in. she has been named person of the year i time magazine. they praise her for her leadership on everything from the greek debt crisis to russia's advance in portland. she is the free worlds chancellor. nichols, we go to hans in portland. -- in berlin. we talked about this when we were in frankfurt two weeks ago. help me understand what is going on. this can be a curse. around thee people world love you, it doesn't mean that you have support at home. where is she? : a does seem to be a lagging indicator what time magazine puts on the cover. you look at her support in the country, it has fallen in the
11:47 am
last few months. there is a great deal of concern about her response to the refugee crisis. so look at the most popular politician in germany right now, it is a chancellor. he is at 75%. then we have the foreign minister. bit bybeat up quite a other left of center economist for his response to greece. you have to go down to 54% to find angela merkel. the more troubling aspect for her, as to whether she will win the fourth term like her predecessor is whether or not she will have an approval rating. so it is not necessarily a curse. there have been four chancellor's that time magazine have named as person of the year. in of them was adolf hitler 1938. i will let you guess who the other two are. -- conradlower
11:48 am
attlemeir? hans: billy brown wins and also the postwar chancellor. it was an acceptable guess. -- he went down in the corruption scandal. brendan: for those of you just joining, name the german chancellor is a drinking game we like to play sometimes. -- such an amazing figure, culturally in germany. hans: the -- chancellor is no longer the -- chancellor and her approval ratings have dropped. i was in her hometown a few
11:49 am
weeks ago and it is a small town about 16,000 inhabitants. they are taking in 180 refugees. an unemployment rate of 12%. up there you feel the corrosion of support in large part because of the refugee response. which is ironically why she is honored so much internationally. hans nichols has served four years as her chief angela merkel correspondent. we will get a quick check on the stock movers. abigail doolittle is life. abigail: we are watching high profile names move in big directions. n is surging after it was announced that -- bought stocks in november. some of this could be a short squeeze but even so, shares are above the 50 day average. lucky as is not so
11:50 am
shares are plunging after they missed third-quarter estimates. bracing for abe possible year-over-year decline in profits. there is a big short interest here too, 29%. outfitters and their risk and reward profile is on track. shares are cheap, trading at a 60% discount after shares dropped more than 30% this year. brendan: thank you. , i need to tell you something. it is my first battle of the charts and i have to tell you, i have no idea what is coming. hit volatility after last week's decision? that will helpt you answer that question. mark: steal my thunder. then -- zip it.
11:51 am
11:52 am
11:53 am
brendan: you are watching "bloomberg markets," the european closed edition. it is time now for the global battle of the charts. which one to decide wins. which is really exciting. joe weisenthal joins us in new york and we have mark barton here in new york -- in london. >> what would you think if we had 3.4% unemployment -- most countries would say wow, that is amazing. i have a pop up, i need to kill that. [laughter] -- up to 3.4% lately. the highest level in years. this has been on the rise.
11:54 am
we know that the swiss economy has been sliding. they did have a big upward revision to the frank when it -- nc when they uplifted the ceiling. every other country would love that unemployment except for the swiss. know which we exports are driving that? we joke about chocolate. >> exports of watches to asia. dismal numbers. brendan: give us some dismal numbers. mark: after the ecb failed to bring up the grand bazooka last week, hasn't it put currency volatility to bed? this measures the expected volatility in currency over the next one month. the ecb met. where since then, the polity has fallen by 26%. the yellow ryan -- yellow line
11:55 am
is the euro-yen. interestingly, joe just talked about the swiss. euro-swiss franc is down 90% ahead of the snb meeting tomorrow. they don't have to do anything after they failed to bring out the big bazooka. the interesting one is the norwegian krone. the green line. interestingly, implied volatility has been rising 14%. you have to say, the ecb for now has put volatility to bed. but what happens if the fed raises interest rates? brendan: i was going to award it to joe for simplicity, but you failed with inadequate terminal management when you got the notice. awarded to mark, one because it
11:56 am
told a story and the other because you got the region krone in their. -- in there. european markets almost finished the session higher thanks to a rebound in mining and oil companies. but still it was the sixth day of losses. here is what i am watching tomorrow. tomorrow, the swiss national bank holds its quarterly policy review. it will leave its deposit rates at a record low. after the ecb measures failed to boost the swiss franc. see you tomorrow everyone. ♪
11:57 am
11:58 am
11:59 am
>> it is new in new york city. >> welcome to bloomberg markets. ♪
12:00 pm
scarlet: from bloomberg world headquarters. it is "bloomberg markets." i am scarlet fu. the commodity index job to its lowest level since 1998 since yesterday. is there a turnaround? yahoo! is scrapping plans to spin off alibaba. what is next? in the deepest recession in 25 years with inflation running into double digits. we will hear from two central bank directors who call for an interest rate hike. first, we want to get more on today's market activity. let's head over to ramy inocencio. ramy: our markets

98 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on