john: i'm john heilemann. mark: and i mark halperin. and with all due respect to time magazine, nailed it. john: on our show tonight, trump and time magazine snubs trump. but first, the people for trump, and there are a lot of them. isording to a new poll, played to temporarily ban all muslims from entering the united states is popular with the

republicans who are going to take the party's presidential nominee. told more than 600 likely voters run the country and asks them as a boo simple question, o you agree? overall, more than one third of each party said they agree. when you look at the party breakdowns, democrats overwhelmingly disagreeing, but they65% of republicans say favor what donald trump is saying should be done to people of muslim faith. only 22% oppose the plan. we also asked the voters if it made them more or less likely to support him. 37% said more likely. republicans. 37% of republicans say it makes them more likely to support trump. i assumed that this will be the kind of result we did when we got the pull, that republicans would overwhelmingly

support trump. given that, what kind of impact will that have on the debate that trump has set off? mark: we asked people to question and then we gave them more information. he hasn't said exactly how long it will be, we said what the critics were saying, so we asked the question and another question giving them more information and the numbers didn't change. 18% ofond thing, democrats are in favor of this. i'm surprised that number is the high this will. , for a lot of -- that high. going to make them back down. they won't reverse their position but they will get quiet. john: they have the normal partisan split, as this poll shows, and have one person in the party where the position is popular, push it, and everybody

else denounces it. mark: and they all find out they are on the wrong side of the party opinion. john: i think there will be some republicans who pull their punches. it will make the press once again realize that trump, on some issues, unfortunately in this case, is with the people, and the leaders of the party will be able to change the numbers. how fearful the country is, and the important thing you just said -- trump, there is no way in which with these numbers he will have to corral himself. this is just i can go in further next time. john: on the other side of the aisle, there has been zero hesitation about criticizing the republicans for this proposal, as the heaviest of heavy democratic heavyweights continues to share their thoughts on hehis plan.

president obama and vice president joe biden, secretary john kerry, and the former secretary of state hillary clinton in iowa, have always l wadeeighed in. >> we the trade the progress of the passive we don't push back against bigotry. our freedom is bound up in the freedom of others, regardless of what they look like or where they come from, what their last name is, or what faith a practice. >> i know [indiscernible] >> our policies are policies of nondiscrimination, of religious tolerance, and frankly what i'll do with mr. trump is, even though it is contrary, it makes

our job of reaching out to is thatnd sharing -- it much more complicated and difficult. >> he does traffic in prejudice and paranoia. only shameful, it is dangerous. john: somewhere as we said republicans will temper and democrats would keep it up, it is clear, where does the democratic criticism put the future of this issue? poll, it said that 37% overall. this is an issue that democrats -- they have already taken the posture of trying to save the republican party is donald trump's party. because ao that here lot of the party have denounced him, what they want to make in the face of the republican party. talk about him as much as possible, because they believe it is good for them. john: it allows them to link the

parties. even most of the denounce her's are saying he shouldn't run -- mark: and now they will get quiet. but it helps strong because as long as trump is being attacked by leading democrats, he dominates the news, antrid trump supporters, when they see him get attacked everyday, they are like that is our guy. mark: and as we discussed yesterday, he has the support of the conservative media echo chamber, and they will continue to do what we said yesterday, continue to side with trump. that is intron's favor, too. -- in trump's favor, to. john: they are getting their wildest dream that running against trump may come true. can muslims be expected to find shelter? fox news is rising above the lapdog layer. -- lair.

chef smith took on trump kelly aimedd megyn enablers.ia >> this is what trump wants, he wants us to talk about him no matter what he is saying. >> exactly right. you may view this as unlawful, and it is. you may consider it fear mongering, racist. he is all of those things. msnbc gave him half hour interviews by phone and then reread the exchanges in their entirety later in the day. it was all trump all the time across almost all the media. >> why wasn't he criticized for mocking this disabled reporter, arabs on 9/11 cheering the buildings -- >> in the crowning moment was abc news, when barbara walters interview to trump for this evening's world news tonight. featurednings, roughly

10 minutes of trump coverage before they got to the issue of terror. you remember terror? 14 dead in 21 injured in california? >> he doesn't want to be dragged down the wormhole by some carnival huckster. someone you stir my him what this nation is and how we dream, and what our constitution is. he is not representing any of that. he is representing the worst, darkest part of all that is america. you, mark, my question for we will indulge in this topic, why do you think that they are both tone and substance diverging from the rest of the echo chamber? >> they both have independent streaks, they are licensed to speak out when they want to, and they are looking for a niche. both of them have perfectly good points. john: i have always like chef

smith, and i liked him more today than i ever liked him before. megyn kelly, trump took her on personally. i don't want to say this is about that, but there is a little bit of outrage what she is saying. oh, my god, these news channels doing these incredible things, etc., as if she hasn't done the same thing on certain stories, as a fox doesn't do that all the time. mark: part of the reason this caught her eye, these are not like the rest. in most of conservative media, he is doing quite well. john: of course. but it is a credit to fox news to have those voices on their. it is a monolith, but not a total monolith. as we watch for any signs of public support in trumps plan may cause some republican 2016ers to back down, one

candidate unlikely to shift gears is the guy who was stocking from supporters most relentlessly. has refused to criticize trump for this or any of his other provocations, and hatagain passed up a chance t took place today and will air on morning joe tomorrow. >> should you be more assertive when donald trump comes out and says he wants to keep more muslims out of the country? >> i asked that i disagree with that proposal, and it is amusing ,ow eager the media is, a please attack donald trump. my approach to trump has been my approach to every other republican candidate, that i am not interested in personal insult and mudslinging. mark: all the uproar after his proposed ban on monday overshadowed something else about definitely hopefully someday taking ted cruz.

here he is talking about other candidates with super pac's. >> they are corrupt. they are totally controlled. bush and rubio and i won't say cruz, because he has been very nice. he has got to hit me first. once he hits me, i promise you -- [laughter] cruz-trump they told has been in place for month, but it is growing increasingly fragile. in the long run, do you think his strategy of going lightly on donald trump will pay off? he is happyk the the detente has lasted. we have one poll showing that cruz is ahead in iowa. if he is willing to lose iowa, he probably likes the detente. in the end, trump doesn't think

you will lose the nomination to cruz. in the end, the only way this'll pay off as if ted cruz becomes the nominee and donald trump eventually collapses. if that doesn't happen it will not have paid off. iowa is the kink in the plan here. mark: it will be very hard for cruz to strike first. iowa,if ted cruz wins in donald trump may regret not having gone after him. cruz wills him there, regret having taken the approach he has taken. mark: right now, they are both happy. they both think they can win, so i think the detente will last. up next, another battle within the party, the ted cruz/marco rubio battle royale, and rahm emanuel in chicago.

we are back. ♪

john: today, rahm emanuel apologized to chicago in an emotional speech before the city council. the call for reforms in police department after weeks of protest over the fatal shooting of a black teenager by white police officer. >> i take responsibility for what happened, because it happened on my watch. going to fix it, i want you to understand that it is my responsibility. one young man asked me a simple question that gets to the core of what we are talking about. said, "do you think the

police would ever treat you the way they treat me?" and the answer is no. and that is wrong. that has to change in the city. that has to come to an end, and end now. no citizen is a second-class citizen in the city of chicago. mark: is even more protests in the windy city, and his approval rating is way down, at 18%. it shows that more than half the city wants him to resign. he has strongly dismissed calls or him to step down. what do you think the chances are that public pressure may compel, force him to change his mind? mark: we have both known him for a long time. he is a very emotional guy and he is also very tough.

his resignation would be tantamount to an admission of failure. situation,is a grim and some people find it hard to bring himself back. won that after he first job, he was happy as i had ever seen a politician. crushed by what he has done to himself and what is happened to him. he is a political realist. and he does two things. if you wait out these controversies, you can survive them. but there is a point where controversy becomes on survivable. scenariogine a where he might have to step down. mark: he has taken on some tough fights. this is a tender -- a tinderbox, and the anger directed personally at him is skyhigh. john: your back to a situation

in a city with racial tension and that is nothing you want to be your legacy. you our health care policy junkie, today was a fantastic day. ben carson unveiled his alternative to obamacare. raising includes the medicare eligibility age, and some other changes. carly fiorina spoke at a medical center town hall in new hampshire, where she outlined her positions on policy and criticize the federal government for incompetence. she had some harsh words for the insurance and prescription drug industries. is are not the first two candidates to lay out their proposals to replace obamacare. how significant is health care going to be as a voting issue? john: look very significant. i think they are roughly the same.

there is a grab bag of republican proposals. i will say one thing, you got in trouble with carly fiorina by saying that she had been very specific. not specific in this health care proposal, ben carson deserves more credit. mark: increasingly this is about national security and toughness on immigration, not about any domestic economic issues like health care. i think the candidates will continue to do this, but it is not going to break through. john: you can't differentiate it. they all want to repeal obama blah, but youh can't say much distinction between the candidate, and those are issues where you won't get much from by spending time or money on them. mark: i don't think there will be any more major policy addresses. john: certainly not anything but foreign policy. sticking of health care, today, marco rubio's campaign is fundraising off the new york times story that described his

efforts to rein in obamacare. he made it harder for insurance companies to keep their premiums low. the stories that he has gotten more things done in the senate the ted cruz. show non, cruz has reservations in going after his fellow senator. >> i like marco rubio, he is a friend of mine, he is a good the new his campaign, york times just reported that the campaign is nervous because polling came out this week, that has the rubio campaign very concerned. what they are doing is, number one, launching false attack ads, and two, they want to change the subject. marco rubio joined with chuck schumer and barack obama in proposing a massive amnesty plan that included giving barack obama more of already to allow in -- more authority to allow in syrian refugees with no background checks.

that is a real problem given the threat of isis, so of course they will try to attack. john: mark, we have talked about the importance of this cruz /rubio rivalry in the past. who has the upper hand? mark: rubio no doubt has upper hand, but if you look at fundraising and electoral support, position in the polls, cruz has more momentum right now, and he is putting himself on the national security stuff. rubio picks up support of a big republican -- but i think right now cruz has the upper hand over all. john: technically speaking, cruz has the upper hand and the momentum, but i think in the long game, rubio continues to impress the establishment, who is going to need to rally behind him. he continues to have the strong hot hand, and if you believe that lane has got to consolidate, ruio right now is

writing roughshod. mark: rubio and his team are showing a toughness and discipline on staying on cruz. like a laughter cruz -- why go after cruz? it is tough this and trying to do the contrast. alright. when we come back, we will break down the demographics and other info from that new poll on obama on donald trump's proposal. what they reveal about trump, after this. ♪

mark: more now on our new poll on donald trump. washington, the managing partner at purple strategies. 2/3 of republicans approve of what he is proposing. what strikes u.s. significant?

-- what strikes you as a significant? >> what strikes me is that not only did 2/3 support it, but when we give them both sides you find that the support is robust, meeting that deep down there are a lot of people who favor this on republican side. john: when you look at the cross-tasks, educational breakdowns, alleges breakdowns, was there anything that popped out that you want to talk about? >> what's interesting is i think a lot of it tracks with what you see in trump supporters as a whole. it is doing better among older voters, among less educated, more downscale voters. it is doing better among white voters, less well among nonwhite voters. in a lot of ways he is tapped into that campaign, a lot of the

same themes of support is capitalizing on. mark: i won't ask you to predict the future, but based on issues like this, when you expect these numbers to stay static, or based on trump is talking about it and everyone else is against him, is it possible that public opinion will move? think the question is what they do next. they said yesterday that they haven't seen pulling and i'm assuming other polling will come out. if they continue that and you get the conservative part of the republican party, including dick cheney and george w. bush, then maybe you could move opinion on it. but otherwise i think this indicates that trump is putting together a coalition that believes a lot of what he says. john: the question about methodology. there is a big debate in the polling community on online polls. itditional polls, what is

that makes us competent about the reliability of the method you guys used? >> two things. first, if we went with an online methodology, i think we all wanted to get a good, quick look at at what people are thinking. second, we use an opt-in methodology that some have criticized but is representative of the public as a whole. when we take a look at things like favorability, it is right on target with all the other polling's. mark: thanks so much for coming on. we will be right back. ♪

john: since monday night, the news cycle has revolved almost solely on donald trump's fromsal to stop muslims

coming into the united states. we will break this. bernie sanders leading hillary clinton by 10 points. and to talk about that poll probably donald trump, too, is steve mcmahon. welcome. steve, i want to start with you. bernie sanders up 10 in new hampshire. we saw a poll in iowa that showed bernie sanders behind hillary clinton. is the democratic race tightening? steve: it may be tightening a little bit. it is returning to where it was you for all of the joe biden speculation. sanders has had a nice lead on hillary clinton in new hampshire. it is returning to where it was.

he has already been strong there because he is from a neighboring state. less strong in iowa. a is a state that requires lot of organization and a of campaign activity. kim, what would you tell bernie sanders campaign? out ofwould be drummed the political television makers. in iowa, it is all ground game. mark: let's go to the republicans, who are the three most likely nominees of your party? actually not see trump getting the nomination. uz would be the most conservative guy who has a

shot. i think rubio. i think your sleeper is chris christie. mark: tell us the scenario by which donald trump is not the nominee. what happened? listen, in iowa, caucus-goers, it is a unique system. you have to get people out to the caucasus. most of his supporters are not traditional caucus-goers. the next up for him to drive home and went iowa. in new hampshire, he is not that far ahead. disaster in iowa, comes in second in new hampshire, his bombast and all of his pt barden -- pt barnum showmanship does not matter. john: steve, i see you shaking

your head. are you sitting over there thinking that donald trump is the most likely republican nominee? steve: look at the poll you guys just talked about. everybody in washington and the political establishment is saying donald trump is finished after the stupid, racist muslim remarks. look at the poll and 61% of republican leaning caucus attenders agree with that. take -- somebody recently said, they were trying to explain the trump phenomenon, the person at the rally said, donald trump says things we think, but we do not say. again today. a huge and troubling number of republicans who are buying the stuff that donald trump is selling. frankly, if i were a republican,

i would be thinking about coming -- becoming a democrat. mark: kim, you are shaking your head. kim: what you are missing is, his rhetoric is fiery and inspiring a disgruntled republican party. you are forgetting that iowa elected terry branstad. iowa is a very calculating, thoughtful state and while yes, some of these polls are out there. 30% of that vote is not hard-core. mark: you are acting like the whole thing for trump's iowa. kim: you have to look down the line and take off the over peel of media coverage and pulling because i think the polling is really difficult to count on lately.

that peel off, you have to look at the ground games of people and look at their turnout models. i do not know that trump exists on a really grunt political levely. steve: there is no indication that any of these candidates who are clogging it up are going to be going away. wins in a% .ulti-candidate field the question i have for kim and republicans, who is going to stop this guy? he says the most ridiculous, inane things. mark: i have been searching my memory, this is a situation where one presidential candidate is supported by two thirds of the people in his party. everybody else in his party and

everybody in the other party are opposed to it. dick cheney and hillary clinton say this is bad. steve: i cannot think of a parallel. perhaps howard dean when he was opposing the iraq war. mark: that is the opposite. steve: the people in his own party supported his position, but the establishment within his party support of the other position. kim: listen -- mark: i think this is an historic moment. dean was with the democratic people and some of the democratic base, but the republican party was not for the war. -- was for the war. steve: he was running against

the grain. john: are you surprised -- does it surprise you -- does it surprise you that two thirds of the people in your party are for this position? it does not surprise me. john: does it horrify you? kim: it terrifies me. i get why trump is appealing. it has been so long since we have had a candidate that is unabashedly sticking to his own position hard-core. the problem with trump, he has zero moral compass. --n: all of us disagree apparently, he has a figurative feel for what his party wants to hear. if you were advising another republican candidate who had denounced him and now you saw

this poll, what would you tell your candidate to do? kim: keep denouncing him. look at what ted cruz is doing. he is no dummy. he has not denounced him hard-core, what he is saying, i agree with 90% of what he says. if you look at conservatism, the heart is what he is talking about is at the heart of what people are worrying about. if you could be the next sane,ate down who is having stricter laws, finding a better way to vet people. there are five countries at this ain't who are considered ebola regions and if you come from -- five regions at this point who are considered ebola regions at this point. that is protecting america.

john: that is not based on religion. kim: dial it back a little. mark: let's assume bernie sanders falls short. is there any dynamic taking place that should worry hillary clinton? steve: there is a generational thing that goes on with marco rubio that makes them a more attractive candidate than most of the other candidates. there is also the fact that he has a very compelling personal story, which makes them a more attractive candidate. ,e was born to cuban parents which makes them a more interesting story. i do not think she would lose to marco rubio, but he would run the strongest race. is your party headed towards having a strong nominee based on the dynamics of the nomination? kim: there will be some work to do. mark: that is the correct

answer. all of the dynamics -- i would be thinking, get some popcorn and watch this thing play. john: let's go back to something kim said earlier. she mentioned ted cruz -- she mentioned chris christie. chris christie is getting a lot of buzz right now. do you think chris christie would be a challenge to hillary clinton? i do not think-- he would be as difficult to beat as marco rubio, but he would be more challenging than ted cruz or donald trump. the places where a guy like chris christie is not going to do very well because he is far too progressive of a republican for those evangelicals to support. do you think would be a stronger general election candidate -- marco rubio or chris christie?

the itris christie -- istor in this election self-confidence. this is like a high school election. if you say what you believe and you say it bluntly, you are moving ahead. rubio does not have that fire. thank you for doing it, you guys. thatll be right back about time magazine choice for person of the year. ♪

mark: if you work at time magazine, today is like christmas. if you do not work there, today is like the fourth night of hanukkah. they announced their long-awaited person of the year. the winner is -- not donald trump. he does not like to lose anything. , trump after the news --ated, -- tweeted gracious. gibbs and saidcy

while merkel has been in the headlines, this year, she has been in the background. >> this is the year she took center stage. having been a very popular leader with approval ratings any leader would it be, this is the .ear she has taken a hit one thing she has in common with trump is they have both been compared to hitler. and her case, the very strict measures she put in place addressing the greek debt crisis. she has made herself unpopular by doing things that are much riskier. in her mind, they are absolutely necessary. mark: both of us thought time should and would pick trump as opposed to angela merkel. we went all persuaded? john: of course not. she was doing jazz hands.

donald trump is entirely right. this is driven by political correctness. people, youmost review the list, they are heroes . they like to put admirable people on the cover. they do not like to put people -- villains. mark: angela merkel, on the euro , on dealing with the refugee crisis, on dealing with isis, she is not even close to her best influential year. utin had a bigger year this year than she had. i was shocked to learn there was one worse choice. they said you, meeting all of us, or the persons of the year.

that was embarrassing. mark: i am sorry, mr. trump, you did not win. here is the way you win, get elected president. best advice i ever gave donald trump. what vice president biden told her colleague about donald trump and how biden feels about missing out on the 2016 campaign trail. that after this. ♪

john: joe biden spent 40 minutes

talking on the record with margaret. you can read that interview on bloombergpolitics.com. joining us from washington right now is margaret herself. great to have you here. you talked with the vice president for 40 minutes. by biden's standards, a brief interlude instead of caulking -- instead of talking. he told you he has no regrets about deciding not to run for president. and you believe him? margaret: he says he made the right decision and i winky believes that is true. i think he is -- and i do believe -- i think that he thinks that is true. 1%would not say he is 10 at peace, but he is at peace

enough. mark: after his son's death, we saw that joe biden was more emotional than usual, and understandably so. maybe part of the reason he did not run is because he was trying to keep things together. where is he now on the emotional side? margaret: he is in a much better place than he was six weeks ago. i spent a lot of time with them on the trail in those last couple of months. vulnerable.y very he would get caught up in his emotions. he is not that guy anymore. when he is talking about the future or politics or something concrete, he is almost happy go lucky joe biden again. you talk with him about his son, he is still a very vulnerable man.

he will close his eyes, speak slowly. even so, you get the feeling he is moving forward. he has decided he and his family have to move on with their lives. john: you spent some time talking with biden about trump. i do notd him saying, think there is much chance of that. what do you think biden's view is of the trump phenomenon? what is his general attitude? thinks iti think he is the perfect mix of a time of fear and this sort of section of the republican party that roots -- that has roots are connections to the tea party movement. there is a section in america

who is worried about their safety and their economic future, about things that are changing. donald trump has tapped into that. trumpbelieves, he thinks is taking this for all that it is worth. the phenomenon will burn out before the general election. in thee will not endorse election. margaret: he told me this was the pastor he took in 2008 as well. posture hethe took in 2008 as well. if he had -- if you really

wanted to endorse hillary clinton, he could do that. he said he wants to remain neutral so the party can decide .ithout him weighing in i believe that is true and consistent with the positions he has taken in the past. he made clear that he thinks it does not really matter who he endorses. john: do you think -- do you have any doubt that if hillary clinton is the nominee, that joe biden will be out there campaigning like crazy? margaret: i have no doubt whatsoever. unless things take some major turns, i think he will support the nominee. if it is hillary clinton or otherwise. god, we will get to see joe biden on the campaign

trail, even if he is not a candidate. ♪

john: you can see is on the television twice a day at 5:00 and 8:00. we are live 24/7 on bloombergpolitics.com. mark: tomorrow, our guests include rob portman. see you tomorrow. sayonara. ♪

emily: i am emily chang and you are watching "bloomberg west." protesters packed chicago city hall following a speech by mayor rahm emanuel.

today's march is the latest in several weeks of protests following the release of video showing a white police officer shooting laquan mcdonald, a black teenager, 16 times. the mayor apologized for the circumstances surrounding mcdonald's death. almost two thirds of likely 2016 republican primary voters toored donald trump's call temporarily ban muslims from entering the united states. those are some of the findings from the bloomberg politics strategy paul. poll.ple strategy john kerry says the u.s. will increase the amount of money it supplies for climate grants. the money will be part of an existing promise by wealthy countries to mobilize $100 billion a year in climate finance. the money must be