from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, good afternoon. i'm betty liu. here is what we're watching at this hour. stocks in the green on the board for the first time this week. surging into the close. airlines boosting the market. -- a management shakeup at aig. executives booted as pressure from activist investors grows. and why companies like men's aarhouse find themselves in bind as stocks plunge. we are about and hour from the close of trade. i want to go to the markets desk where ramy inocencio has your markets check. quite a dramatic difference. a differenceely

from monday to wednesday. monday we saw a decline. we are hitting session highs. hopefully we will stay with those through the day. we are on track to break that three-day losing streak. the s&p 500 up .8%. the dow up the most by 1%. the nasdaq up by .9%. everyone looking ahead to tomorrow. we will be getting reports on retail sales and producer prices . also a gauge of consumer sentiment is expected for last month. expectedat data is not to alter the fed's anticipated move on rates. functionok at the wrip on your bloomberg terminal. a chance the fed will on december 16th.

we are flirting with a record close. the last time that happened was may 21. today we are at 2062, so we are off that by 55 points and change. we will be looking to see if we did that soon, betty, or maybe by the end of the year if the markets continue their trajectory. and commodities as well, right? aboutyes, we were talking oil all day -- all year, really, right question mark rent crude down 1%. the news off of this is opec has set to raise its output to the highest and three years, the strategy to pressure competing producers out of the market.

natural gas at a three-minute -- three-month low. that, energy stocks still gaining today. exxon is up. upo paring some gains, earlier this afternoon, conoco phillips up 2.25%. it looks like energy stocks are still on track for a positive close. betty: thank you very much. ramy inocencio at the markets desk. mark crumpton has more from our news desk. mark: betty, thank you very much. connecticut have a nerd dan malloy says he will use an executive order to ban gun sales -- connecticut governor dan malloy says he will use an executive order to ban gun sales to people on the no-fly list. gun advocates oppose the no-fly list or basel because they say it violates the rights of people

who left not been convicted of a crime. advisors to president obama are looking at ways to limit gun sales without congressional approval. they are exploring closing the so-called "gun show loophole" that allows people to buy at gun shows and online without a background check. helicopters could be soon flying over ramadi to help iraqi forces in a long-running battle to retake the key city. attackingcircling, ramadi from all four sides. that is where the police are. carter.s. secretary ash is also considering sending advisors to ramadi to help iraqi forces make a final push into the city center. a hillary clinton has won the endorsement of the american

federation of government employees. workers inepresents the u.s. government and the district of columbia. the summer slump took a chunk out of u.s. household wealth. net worth for households and nonprofits calculated by subtracting mortgages, debts, and other liabilities dropped more than a touch billion dollars from july through september. household debt rose at the slowest pace in two years. these andt more on other breaking stories 24 hours a day at the new bloomberg.com. from the bloomberg first word desk, i'm mark crumpton betty, back to you. betty: thanks so much. we are seeing some gains today from health care, airlines, and energy. for more on how to play the end bruno delar train, alma.

good to see you. what do you make of today's trade, just to start that off? sure, a great day for equities. massive trendswo dominating the market. one is clearly oil prices. oil prices continue to go down and we are looking at a seven-year low for oil prices and for sure everyone is looking next week and what will happen with interest rates. the first rate hike in a decade. interpret that volatility, bruno. do you attribute that to people trying to price in this rate hike then? whether it happens or not is very meaningful.

i think everyone will be very relieved if in fact we have a rate hike, because it will take a lot of uncertainty out of the marketplace and start the process of normalizing our monetary policy. what are the strategies? only a few weeks left until the end of year. what strategies do you need to have in your portfolio? bruno: you need to be careful. they are adding a lot of volatility around the year-end and that's when a lot of portfolio managers, retail investors, looking at taking losses. overadds a lot of pressure the year. additional volatility in the marketplace, and of course, as we get into the holidays, we have to look at rebalancing positions. loss: when you say tax harvesting, where will you see that impact in the market? bruno: we will be focusing on

the asset classes that have corrected the most this year. commodities, oil, really across the commodity spectrum. mlp's i really an asset class that has been dragged down. but also in the international markets, emerging markets have really corrected this year. also in asia, outside of japan. at those are the markets where you have the most opportunity to harvest, but also volatility around that. they: you want to offset profit gains in other areas. how does that set you up for 2016, bruno? where you put your money? where does the word folio go? -- where does the portfolio go? really interested in mlp's. there's a lot of uncertainty and is there a way to purchase a bait on that structure? we love infrastructure mlp's. they are not as correlated. withopose contracts

long-term contracts to transport energy -- i think there is the possibility of dividend rate cuts, but they will not be very extensive, particularly when you look at 8% and 10%. ok, all right, bruno. appreciate it. bruno del alma. much more in the next half hour of "bloomberg markets." theshaking up with dismissal of for senior executives. a. the best two by josep. bank of bad idea? and she is out just three months after valeant. the -- bought the company. faces questions over its pharmacy practices. that and more straight ahead.

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betty: good afternoon. welcome back to "bloomberg markets." i betty liu. it's time for the is no splash. talk facing an increasingly crowded u.s. fast food market is ramping up its locations overseas. s mexicands says it' chain will grow by 1000 locations abroad. to better help customers understand their options, they enter new countries with smaller menus. rocket testk says a

firing is set for next saturday in florida. come three days earlier. spacex has been struck on earth since june when a broken strut doomed its falcon rocket. and general motors, 400 claims against faulty ignition switches. more than 4000 claims, and 90% of those than were deemed eligible for payment. changes at aig, the company herzog is cfo david among top managers leaving as -- peter can talk hancock shakes up upper management. shares are down almost 2%. joining us with his reaction,

paul newsome. a badul, net-net, is this thing for aig? go someey are letting people are well-known with wall street. they will have to rebuild with investors. betty: isn't that expected? when a new ceo takes over, you expect there will be changes of the top, right? paul: that figure good point. if it is understandable, and i agree with you, it is, you have a situation where the new team is not as well-known as the old team and that leads to uncertainty in strategy. all things being equal, it is still a negative until uncertainty is reduced by the investment community understanding the new management team better. betty: the new management team is fairly unknown to the analyst

community. do you think they are moving in the right direction, paul? part of a larger cost restructuring effort that at aig.d i ag -- they do need to get costs down. this is part of the broader effort. this is important and positive. is this going to be helpful to fend off carl icahn and his attempts to break up the company essentially? paul: i think any time they reduce cost and make aig more competitive with a better return of equity, that will help justify his strategy, but i don't see this particular change as really having a big influence

incrementallyther or as they do with this cost. ok, and before you go, what do you read into peter hancock's strategy? to you read anything new at all? paul: not at all. from the changes and the fact that most of the positions did not really change, they were just people leaving and getting promoted, the overall strategy is unchanged. following a customer base strategy. toa part -- as opposed managing the businesses separately, which is a lot -- what a lot of customers want. right, all new summit there. still ahead, your options insight. a d.o.b. reporting -- adobe reporting earnings after the

bell. ♪

betty: welcome back to "bloomberg markets." next week, the federal reserve will make its decision on whether to like interest rates for the first time in a decade. spoke toberg a guest about the decision policymakers face. two things that the markets hate our uncertainty and surprise. i think that is why you have seen the speculating. i thought the janet yellen was fairly transparent. i saw her speaking at the economic forum of new york where -- quiteuite confident clear saying she was not quite confident the recovery was real. i felt like she was messaging it then, and that is what we see today.

so, the market, i think, expects a very moderate move next week and i think she's so much is said that about a week ago. does the market have unrealistic expectations? can they demand certainty? that is not janet yellen's job. carla: it's not necessarily her job alone, but whether it is company forecasting or telling thererket what to expect, is a measure of delivering what you said you were going to do. or doing better than that. that is how the market is programmed. anytime you say you will deliver y, youyou deliver x plus are rewarded for that. i think people will be looking at next year. >> that is very hopeful. but what if the uncertainty switches to next year?

and says when is the next one coming? people understand if you look at the behavior thus far the fed is not going to do anything to upset the apple cart. we are way away from that 2% inflation point. i think the market expects measure moves -- measured moves through 2016. they will be watching the strength of the dollar. they do not want to upset what appears to be a decent recovery. you are right, david. when is the next one? first quarter, second quarter, how much will it be? but i think it will be next dictation of measured moves. janet yellen started this job there is a big to do about how there would be more transparency in not trying to read what yoda is saying and figure out what is going to happen. how do your clients feel? has she been as clear -- carla: i have to tell you, i will give you one woman's opinion. i felt like i heard her loud and

clear at that lunch. here are the measures that would need to be in place for me to act. they are there now. there is still room in this equity market. you might want to think about short duration bonds, and think about longer-term, a little bit further out, but you know, move forward, there still room in this market. you may have allocation around japan and europe, but there's still room in this market. betty: that was carla harris on this morning.>" earlier i spoke with morgan head of emerging-market equities. have been in this bear phase for four or five years now. i think many countries have already adjusted quite a bit, but the currencies of fallen very sharply from brazil to

russia to south africa. and currencies are feeling cheap. if you visit these places, these currencies are feeling their real value. this is a big change from 2011. china has not adjusted on tiga press. the currency is still overvalued. the currency needs to adjust, and that is a fear that is still playing in the market. going to bet is weakening. there is one thing that is still there. is it the same move for the chinese currency before we can call for this in emerging markets. betty: if we did have to incent, would that add

currency? guest: here is the single most important statistic in china we need to know. the debt is increasing at twice the pace of the economy of china. this is not a sustainable model ifa there is no rebalancing you are relying so much on debt to grow. that profilea's was quite stable. since then, the debt profile has exploded. betty: why has it exploded? guest: because they are trying to be at an unrealistic growth target. if you want to grow at 7%, before that 8%, but they do not have the underlying fundamentals to do so. demographically. the population will contract for the first time. as research i showed, there is no country in history able to basis on 6% sustained the basis of negative demographics. they're trying to grow at an unreasonable pace and are taking

on too much debt to meet those growth targets. do you think we are at the point, at the turning point in a lot of countries. you mentioned argentina, venezuela, historic elections there. overnight, andca the firing of the finance minister, right -- we have seen what has happened with the south african rand. are we at the turning point with these emerging markets? guest: south africa is a bad advertisement for that. soth africa, the one thing far was the technocrats. a finance minister who is quite respected by the markets has been fired. betty: a turning point. but not for the better. inst: latin america -- i was april.n the former president there, when i met him, he said the entire history of latin america is when

times are bad, policy turns right, and went times are good, -- when times are good, policy turns left. what we are seeing in argentina, venezuela, possibly brazil, left-wing populism is being shown the door as these countries face problems and here they are electing right wing, more traditional leaders to try to set the economy right. you can argue some countries and the emerging world -- we saw this in asia, too, in terms of india, indonesia. they are trying to let people have a bit more of a performance bent of mind to fix the problem. yes, those countries electing new leaders and asking for reform, is a positive side. but south africa is a bad example. ♪

betty: live from bloomberg world headquarters here in midtown manhattan, cu you are watching "bloomberg markets."

mark crumpton has more from our news desk. mark? mark: -- mark: congressional leaders are looking at a deal with that make expired tax breaks permanent. it is part of a spending deal that would avoid a government shutdown. speaker ryan: we are in the middle of omnibus appropriations. the last thing i want to do is negotiate through the media. to passngress is likely a temporary spending bill tomorrow. republican presidential is one theed cruz highly coveted endorsement of one of iowa's most prominent evangelical leader. failed three time candidate for governor. he is the leader of an opposestion that

same-sex marriage and abortion. he says that the endorsement is personal and does not reflect his organization. hillary clinton has won the endorsement of the federation of government employees. working on a tip from the cia, police are hunting for four suspects allegedly linked to the islamic state. swiss officials say that they are loving a specific attack in geneva. normally officers carry larger weapons, but they will be carrying fully automatic machine guns. following his swearing-in, the argentine president delivered a these two support is pretty said "lying about the state of the economy has tarnished argentina's reputation

worldwide." he also said he would make good on his claim to achieve 0% poverty in the country. prize -- thece group appealed for international operation to make the fight against terrorism "an absolute priority." theof the members said that feeling of euphoria and pride does not obscure the grief, sorrow, and anger they feel about recent acts of terrorism. andcan get more on these other breaking stories 24 hours a day at the new bloomberg.com. bloomberg first word desk, i'm mark crumpton. betty: thank you. i want to get to abigail doolittle live at the nasdaq. i know you are looking at two stocks heading in two different reactions -- directions. we are off of our highs as well. a wild day has been

at the nasdaq. we opened fire. we were nicely higher. now we are off. one of the worst performers at the nasdaq, surprisingly, first solar. shares are down significantly. expect the company to make profits, but the sales outlook fell short of targets. guidance for 2016 may prove conservative. it has been a bumpy ride for first solar. shares are up, but it may be worth wondering whether this outlook could send this stock back toward the lows. now turning to a winner on the day, lending tree. shares surging after it was isounced american express cardg on more and the

space and after its stock was raised to a buy by morgan stanley. basically, a buying opportunity here on a stock that is on pace to finish up for four years in a row. betty? thank you, abigail. abigail doolittle at the nasdaq. two weeks until christmas eve and is shaping up to be a difficult holiday season for many retailers. shares of men's wearhouse tanking today. the company says same-store sales have plunged this quarter, already down 35% for the first week of december. meanwhile, best buy trying to avoid another lackluster holiday season. shares are down. black friday at the brick and mortar chain, not so great. , is this a pretty bad mistake with jos. a. bank?

matt: a year ago they paid $1.5 million to buy jos. a. bank. the market cap has gone down $2 million. they paid more for the company then the whole company is worth right now. --all goes back to a kind of of a lot of mistakes that retailers have made. when you change the promotional strategy, you have to have something to offer them in his place or they will not show up. withw this with jcpenney, ron johnson. took away the strategy, shares collapsed -- does men'swhat wearhouse do with jos. a. bank? somewhat were known amusingly as by one and you get

two free or three free or for free or five free -- they took that away. they took away what people people did not show up. there were declines before this, but now they are saying 35 percent so far this quarter. just unheard of. what retailer posts -- betty: that is incredible. are they going to bring those promotions back? said we ceo basically will be a promotional brand, but we will not do the ones we did before. we need to listen to our customers. there's a lot of doubt about this management team. they talked a big game about the opportunities and how we can fix the jos. a. bank brand. they have not done that. taking the temperatures today, there's a lot of questions about the management. a lot of questions. betty: clearly. on the best buy front though, what is going on there? what's going on? matt: he is in a tough spot.

people like what he has done. in a toughe just market. if you look at electronics in general. it is a weak market. you mean electronics is soft overall? matt: soft overall. soft in the third quarter. black friday, things like that. they are doing things to right size the business. , the electronic market is relatively weak. you don't have a big transformational product like you had in years past where tablets or smartphones really change the market. so, there are wearable watches -- that's a big niche market. betty: it does not take the

place of an iphone. buyingnvestors still not it. it's one of the least valued retailers out there. betty: all right. matt townsend, who covers retailers for us here at bloomberg. switching gears to pharmaceuticals, sidney whitehead, who was the ceo of pharmaceuticals -- because she is leaving her post. it's only three months since the bought libido pill was by valeant pharmaceuticals. oons,ng us, cynthia k who wrote the story. she's already leaving? acquisitioner the of all, they talked about her staying on board. we know that descriptions were slow out of the gate and valeant said that was because they had to do extensive physician education because the drug has

side effects and they have to take every day in they can drink alcohol. there's a lot of things about the drug that make it entirely different from viagra, which is the comparison that is made all guess is and what i the consumer perception of this drug, but that's not what it is. they say education is slowing it down, but her leaving right now makes it seem as though they are really concerned with how the launch is going and they want to ramp things up in some way, shape, or form. it just looks like something is not going right. betty: how long was she supposed to stay originally? anthia: she was staying as ceo. now she is a consultant. a strange position for an executive, but very different from running the business. it really speaks to the point that they really need these pills. they are not willing to wait. that's what it looks like from the outside. the revenue that they are

missing from the drug is something that they actually -- betty: what are they doing now? are they doing anything different? cynthia: we don't know yet. this is very early days. one of the things they said they would not do, direct to consumer advertising, but when they announced the deal they backed off that and said they might review it. they might launch a consumer advertising campaign. this is something that we do for drugs with our more esoteric conditions. it will be interesting. what women are concerned about, first of all, this is not just a drug to drive libido. that will require a lot of prescriber involvement in the process, and without being able to drink alcohol, having a glass of wine if they run this daily medication -- i think these are the big things that people were concerned about when the drug was approved in the first place. so, i don't know if they will

get in there and make a dense and what may be concerns about this drug. perhaps it could have an effect. -- could make a dent i and what may be concerns but this drug. perhaps it could have an effect. .etty: all right, thank you we will look at some of the latest data. the prediction that the 3500.ll reach and much more to come with "with all due respect." senator rob portman will discuss at the 2016 presidential rate, -- race, the fight against terrorism, and much more at 5:00 p.m. eastern time. ♪

betty: good afternoon. welcome to "bloomberg markets." i'm betty liu. time for the bloomberg business flash. downgrading to's for yum! brands. yum! brands says it's mexican themed chain will grow abroad. enters new countries with a smaller menu. and the volkswagen ceo says he theommitted to keeping 12 brands. in his first interview since the scandal, he said he hopes to reach a deal with the epa within weeks. twitter will show ads to people who look at tweets, but do not

have acounts. the ads -- do not have accounts. the as will show as people click through to news stories. -- it isser growth sending shares higher. you can get more business news at bloomberg.com. we are six days away from the federal big decision day, but as liftoff looms, is economic data as strong as it seems? joe weisenthal, cohost of joins us. miss?" six days away. joe: can you believe it? we are six days away. it almost does not seem real to me. like: by the way, we talk to get people who do not have billions at stake here. [laughter] joe: there was a presentation earlier this week, and the

argument was, look, data is not that good. is not that good. gdp is not that good. the fed is seemingly ready to write. but maybe it is not a good time. credit conditions up and rolling over. the fed seems to be hiking at a time when there are some signals -- it's not like we are breaking out. it does not look like the economy is red-hot. on the flipside, people who point to a hike save the fed is not looking for economic momentum. they are looking for levels. they are looking for level of employment where it looks like wages are about to take off and even if the economy is slowing a little, as long as they hit their thresholds in terms of feeling comfortable about where inflation is going, then they are hiking. betty: i feel like the new debate will be whether the fed just hikes once and leaves it

alone for a while, right? particularly as we see these conditions are volatile. joe: i am really intrigued by this. yellen has talked about this will not be like the last hiking cycle -- 25 basis points, 25 basis points, 25 basis points meeting after meeting. the data that they used in the run-up to the first cycle continue and they will want to see not just evidence inflation will trend towards their goal, but actual increased inflation as they make their decision at each meeting, so i think it's possible. i think a range of cycles are possible. i do not think they will feel again.ed to hike it could be very powerful. if people believe that they are hiking -- betty: all right, i will see

you. joe weisenthal. on their show, another outlook on the fed decision. much more ahead. of market closes at the top the hour. stocks are on pages to rate the three-day losing streak, but we are losing steam, quite a bit, as we head toward the closing bell. ♪

betty: welcome back to "bloomberg markets." 'm betty liu. markets are closing in about 10 minutes time. we are losing steam by rapidly. ramy inocencio is here to check on the trade. ramy? ramy: we are on track to break that three-day losing streak between monday and wednesday. the s&p 500 the very losing steam.

down .2%. 1.25%.as i as up the dow and the nasdaq are up, but obsession eyes. volatility at the with and entered a look at the doubt. right now, we can see if they get a leg up at the 10:30 a.m. mark. this is when natural gas inventories came in lower, only to see that rise physical. the dow did get a second wind and we saw the intraday high or so.2:00, 2:15 the price of oil cap markets choppy. it did not hold onto the gains of this morning. it was in the positive all the way up to the 5:00 a.m. or so mark, and it's down by 2% at session lows. it did hit a new six-year low barrel at 9$36.52 a

a.m. intraday it is lower than that, $36.44. natural gas futures also volatile. a bump on that inventory. you can see that leg up here, but it did lose steam. it is also at its session lows, down 2.8%. at this is its lowest since april 2012. let's look at the s&p's best and worst performers. consol energy has been the index's biggest gainer all day. up 10%. the most since november 2 where rally.a 70% -- 17% rally. first solar, the victim of its 2015.ak guidance for -- 2016. we will be looking ahead to that. you so much, ramy inocencio at the markets desk. now let's turn -- stay with the

markets, moments away from the close. climbing.nally what about the volatility witnessing? i want to bring in our bloomberg charter. this is the s&p over the last decade question mark is that right? it tracks 10-year performance on the index. the reason i did that, and strategist with the bank of america-merrill lynch came out with a projection and said if you go out to 2025, or by then, 3500.p 500 will reach sounds pretty good if you are in the low 2000's. if you go back to the numbers since world war ii, you find out that 3500 number does not look all that great by historical standards. betty: it doesn't. why is that? if you run the numbers and you find out that the average 10-year performance in

terms of annual gains, seven point 5%, sounds much better than what we have been getting the last few years, we have not come close to that, in fact this year it looks like we are headed for bouncing 4% on the 10-year, and then if you look at these talking you're probably 5.5 percent, assuming you get to that 3500 number at the end of 2025. so, again, look at that in terms of history. does not look all of that impressive in relative terms. betty: in the last decade though come out why have we suffered so much? it is all about the devaluation of the bear market. it's going to show up over time. that depressed returns. shouldn't investors be happy about seeing 3500 on the

s&p? shouldn't they at least be happy about that? that is true. and stocks are still the way to go relative to bonds or cash, because you look at a few years, they are not going to produce the kinds of returns you will get in the s&p 500. even though by historical standards you may be doing that well -- betty: it's not looking too bad. david: not bad at all. betty: what has she poked in the model for growth, for performance? she kind of took the portfolio, way historically, found out you had a 90% chance of delivering a total return between 4% and 12% for the next decade. bear in mind, that means the evidence. she's talking about a 2% or so dividend on the s&p 500 and you back out from there and that is

how you get that 3500. means the returns could be worse than 5%. thank you, dave wilson. our stocks editor. that is it for "bloomberg markets." the market closes next. we will take one last look at the major averages that are going to break their three-day at losing streak, but are giving up some of their gains, as you can see. ♪

>> with your moments away from the closing bell. i'm scarlet fu. joe: i'm joe weisenthal.

scarlet: u.s. stocks closing higher, rising for the first time in four days. joe: what did you miss? scarlet: oil tumbles. joe: and the looming fed rate hike. is the data that strong? and france's future. the second round of regional elections take place sunday. we take a look at the political landscape. we begin with the markets. first gain this week. the s&p 500 stayed at its average. we have seen movement back and forth. a half percent short of its record high. joe: yes, we e