>> i am mark halperin. >> i am john heilemann. ♪ >> heavy dewey decimal system day, sports fans. welcome to the north lawn of ye old white house. first, some polls about the people who want to be the next tenant of this auguste residence. the cbs national poll shows donald trump in charge at 35%,

up 13 points from october, and more than double any other candidate. ted cruz, 16% in second place. ben carson, down 13 points, third place. in south carolina, where a fox news poll shows trump doing just as well as nationally with 35%, all of by carson at 15%, and ted cruz and marco at 14% of these. there are three big numbers that we want to highlight, talk about, so let's go through them quickly. the first one is 25%, that is how many south carolina republicans say donald trump will be the best candidate to handle national security, the big issue of the moment. 24%, that is how many people said ted cruz would be their first choice if donald trump were to magically disappear from the race. finally, 4%, a much smaller number, that's how marco rubio is doing with tea party voters in south carolina.

that is pretty bad for him. of all these numerical representations, which stands out to you the most? >>, lonely voice in saying that ben carson can have a second act. ben carson ist is holding on to some pursuant -- support. to be donald trump, the person in the best position is ted cruz. collapsen will need to even more so that ted cruz can find his additional votes. as long as carson is holding onto double digits, it is harder for ted cruz to get to trump. haley barbour said good gets better and bad gets worse. if you turn it around, it makes my case for why carson is done. he doesn't just have to get over trump. he has to get over ted cruz, too. mark: what stands out for me is

that haley barbour also said that in politics rings are never as good or bad as they seem. ben carson has not collapsed. is that if out to me carson can hold or increase his boat, it helps donald trump at point, because ted cruz and to some extent marco rubio are the two biggest threats, and they cannot grow. john: i agree with all of that. if carson manages to stabilize, it's good for trump. mark: he is stop -- stable there. john: he has dropped. teamarco rubio ke party support. his whole appeal was both establishment and tea party. that looks like an establishment candidate, not a crossover candidate. mark: today, donald trump announced he was nixing his

planned trip to israel to meet with benjamin netanyahu. trump explain the change. , in fact iery much did a campaign advertisement for him and he is a good man, but i did not want to put him under pressure. he said we had a meeting and he looks forward to it, but i did not want to put him under pressure. of a veryin the midst powerful campaign that is going very well and it was not easy to do, so i would say lots of different reasons. i could have done it. it was semi-scheduled, but i decided to focus on this. when he said lots of different regions -- reasons and semi-scheduled. john: let's be clear about what happened. israeli politicians from the far left and far right. it was a bad idea for donald trump to come to israel, including benjamin

netanyahu. if trump had showed up, the provocation for palestinians , violence,been high bad things. in that sense, it shows you that trumps rhetoric is reverberating loudly overseas and not in a way that benefits him as a potential president. mark: let's see if any of his rivals can make a big deal about this. deal, but ita big would take a candidate to drive it. trump does not like to be disrespected. benjamin netanyahu disrespected him. he went on media and said -- criticized trump. trump does not like to be criticized. he will not fly halfway around the world for -- to meet a guy who ditched them. it would hurt another candidate. it probably won't hurt him, unless some other candidate makes a big deal and tries to say, this is another indication that trump is not ready to be commander in chief.

john: i think there is no doubt that republican candidates will start to go negative on trump as we get closer to voting, and this will pop up again. benjamin net yahoo! is a talismanic figure for many republicans. netanyahu is a talismanic figure for many republicans. mark: the debates in vegas next week. what happens at private fundraisers, does not stay private fundraisers. ted cruz question the judgment of donald trump and ben carson as to whether they were fit to be commander in chief -- in chief. , because tedficant cruz up until now has religiously shied away in public from taking on donald trump. today at the heritage foundation in washington, i asked senator cruz about it. you are being quoted by the new york times today speaking about

two of your opponents, donald trump and ben carson, and the prospect of their controlling of nuclear weapons. you said "that is a question that is a challenging question for both of them." did you say that? >> i will not comment on what i may or may not have said at a private fundraiser. in the course of a presidential election, the voters will make a decision about every candidate, and ultimately it is about who has the right judgment, experience and judgment, to serve as commander in chief. every one of us who is running is being assessed by the voters under that metric. that is exactly why we have a democratic election to make that determination. cruz didn'tr ted really answer my question there. after the event, i approached the candidate and ask again. is it safe to say that you are

not going to comment? you not going to comment? got blown off, but later in the day ted cruz's campaign called the quote "misleading." marco rubio senator said at a campaign event today in des moines. anything at ad fundraiser that i would not say at a public event. my message is pretty consistent, whether in a private meeting, group of donors, or a broader setting. mark: this story is developing. if it is true, he is doing what senator rubio says he doesn't do, which is say something different in private than public. is this a tempest in a teapot? john: i think this is a huge deal. --ald trump is chopping

chomping at the bit to go after ted cruz. a couple of days ago he said he's just waiting for a moment, an excuse. now he has given donald trump an excuse to go nuclear on ted cruz. it could be a hugely consequential blunder on ted cruz's part. mark: if it's true, then it will open the door to trump to question his judgment and be commander-in-chief. if any other candidate did that, he would go negative on him. john: trump wants to punch ted cruz in the nose. he's done something here worse than criticize donald trump. he's criticized donald trump and private. my god, it's horrible. mark: put on your turban. will he go after ted cruz and marco rubio? people don't like him. , i think he might

go after them on that metadata thing that bush and rubio got after him on. john: ted cruz, as rubio points for ted cruz is on record letting undocumented immigrants have legal status. mark: moving on. a new york times cbs national poll, marco rubio is now the clear establishment frontrunner. bush, chris christie, john kasich, all down in a three-way tie a 3%. given that none of these other establishment candidates have managed to establish a national polling presence, which of those rise guys has a chance to and rival marco rubio in the establishment lane if not win the nomination? mark: they've all got a talking there.

john kasich has nothing in iowa. bush and chris christie are best positioned to stop marco rubio in iowa. is, none ofght now them. none of them have a clear advantage to catch up to rubio. i think all of them could, even john kasich, because marco rubio strength in terms of fundraising and paul standing are not impregnable. john: here's the real answer. none of them have any chance to have impact in iowa. rubio is going to be the dominant establishment player in iowa, in my judgment. he has no organization. mark: bush and christie do. john: you wandered into the truth. chris christie, because he has the momentum in new hampshire -- mark: chris christie has got to know scrutiny. the minute he does well, he will

be hammered with negative ads. there's not a state for chris christie after new hampshire. --n: are you ready to clear to declare all three of them dead yet? mark: no, i'm not. john: our interview with the white house chief of staff and our conversation with senator rob portman from the capital. we will be back in exactly 60 seconds. ♪

mark: later, we were asked senator rob portman about how donald trump might affect his own election process. and the man behind ted cruz's biggest iowa endorsement. first, president obama's chief of staff joins us here on the

white house lawn as soon as we come back from this commercial break. ♪

mark: joining us on the north lawn is the chief of staff denis mcdonough for one of his rare television appearances. happy holidays. thank you for joining us. >> welcome to the white house. mark: what are the facts on the ground in the war against isis? are they on offense, defense? >> they are pressing as hard as they can on a number of different fronts. they have given back about 40% of the ground they have gained

over the course of the last year. they are also striking out in different ways, as we have seen. the sinai peninsula, paris, san bernardino, so this is something that we have to make sure that we stay very vigilant about. the president demanding that from his team, and that's what we will continue to do. would you say people are mischaracterizing the president's posture when they say he is not making any changes? >> i think we are making changes every day. i will tell you what we are doing. we are applying lessons learned all the time, making sure that when we see soft spots we hit them and hit them hard. isilill make sure the hears from us. mark: a lot of people on capitol hill respect you. every day i hear republicans criticize, criticize. i don't get the sense that you all reach out very much. do you have republicans appear

to meet with the president. do you ever say, give us your best ideas? >> we reach out all the time. orill not name names anything like that, because given this climate, i would get him in trouble. we look for the good ideas and talk to these guys all the time. mark: doesn't it bother you and the president that at a time of war, this intense need to come together as a country, and you ay if someone gave me a good idea, that would be a problem. ideas, do give us good and we apply them. we are looking at every good idea we get. this threat is evolving, and we have entered a new phase, so we want to make sure we stay on the offense against every manifestation of that. my job is not to get too upset about what happens. what we have to do is make sure that we are crushing isil

wherever we see them manifest themselves. john: in the wake of san bernardino, there have been every republican with a proposal for what we should do to make sure that never happens again. >> right. john: what do you and this white house and this president, given what we know about the facts on the ground, think our policy changes that need to be made in order to lessen the likelihood of a similar thing happening again? >> i will correct one thing you said. i've heard some machinations from the candidates -- john: donald trump propose not allowing muslims come into the united states? >> as i said, i have not heard any serious proposal. we have been working with u.s. attorneys for years on something we have been concerned about, wolvess lone

radicalized here in the united states. that's what we seen in san bernardino. we have to make sure we are working with local community leaders, that were calling on muslim community leaders so that if they say something -- see something, they say something. that way we don't allow lone w olves radicalized in the shadows. john: there are those who say trump puzzle is worse than that, giving isil a victory in some way. , that think that is true it aids the cause of the enemy? >> i think it is a dangerous proposal. we have made it clear that we oppose it strongly. from therd that department of defense,

department of justice, department of homeland security, so we think it is a proposal that will make us less secure rather than more secure. john: does it aid the cause of the enemy in a tangible way? >> i would not get into what i think aids the enemy, because i don't know what motivates them, to be honest with you. some of the stuff is so nefarious and frankly evil that it is hard to understand, but i will say that the proposal, and i've seen and as you heard from the department of defense, department of justice, department of homeland security, and the white house, it would make us less secure. mark: on gun control, there is discussion again about possible executive action on gun control. the president cares a lot about this issue. >> yes. mark: what might we see as we go forward in terms of brady leading gun safety out of this white house -- in terms of regulating gun safety out of this white house? >> if you are too dangerous to get on a plane, you should not buy a weapon.

we will continue to press that case with capitol hill. in terms of other executive actions in this space, the president is working hard to look at what is available. that work is not done yet, so i can't -- john: that first one, is that something that could be done through executive action? >> i have not done all the analysis, but it could be done quickly by congress. mark: what are your impressions of texas senator ted cruz? >> i've had limited dealings with him. we wanted many of our nominees who are critically important, not only to this fight against -- but on on another a number of other national security interests. i have some frustration with that, and i'd like to make sure that gets corrected. we have some really good people ready to serve the country, and they should be given that opportunity. mark: from afar, what are your impressions? >> i don't spend a lot of time

thinking about senator ted cruz. i speak -- think about a lot of other things occupying us right now. mark: you look at donald trump capitalizing on some public sentiment of anger and frustration, what is the sense of a connection between that and what is happening to rahm emanuel? >> the president says this all the time. we ought to make sure we have a government that is fitting for the american people who we represent. we ask ourselves that question all the time. i'm not a sociologist ready to be able to comment on any of this sentiment that you're suggesting. what i do know and what the president demands of us is that we are responsive to what people need. we remain on the offense on isil . we are looking for new opportunities, so that people feel like there is a ladder to

the middle class and it is real. mark: is america on the right track or wrong track? >> i think america is on the right track. if you look across the board -- mark: tick off the reasons you say that. >> 69 straight months of job growth. 5% unemployment. 18 the people who have access to health care now that would not have had it before. health care inflation is at historically low rates for four years in a row. produce more -- energy, including oil, in this country than we import. when you look across the board, who do want to be? you want to be the united states. mark: can america be a country where gdp is 4% year? >> the sky is the limit in america.

there is no question about that. if you look at where we came and thatting in 2008 deep recession, and you see what the american people have fought out of, the sky is the limit. growth gdp onnual a sustained basis a realistic goal for america? >> it is absolutely a realistic goal for america, because as i said the sky is the limit. maybe it can be more than that. here is what i know. the human capital in this country, the rule of law, the opportunities we have here, this is undeniably the greatest place to be. right now, too many people feel they don't get a fair shot at that and that is what -- shot at that. that is what the president works on every day. mark: what is your holiday wish? >> that the american people feel

safe and are able to celebrate this with a couple of extra bucks in their pocket. john: can we buy your drink tonight? >> the drinks are on us tonight. mark: thank you. >> appreciated. mark: up next, one of the endorsements in iowa was bestowed on senator ted cruz. we will explain why after this word from our sponsors. ♪

john: one of i was is known christian conservative leaders endorsed mike huckabee.

in 2012, he backed rick santorum, who also won the caucuses. one more, a trend story. long-awaitede his 2016 endorsement, ted cruz. he joins us from des moines, iowa to explain why. we just believe ted cruz has been consistent in his character, his principles, his conservative convictions. he has built one heck of an infrastructure in iowa, and i believe he has what it takes to go the distance. he can be an effective standardbearer for us. it was not an easy choice. there were a lot of friends in the race. it quickly became an obvious choice that this is a candidate that conservatives can unite around and get to be our nominee. what is your sense of what your members think of donald trump and whether donald trump is a man of faith?

>> they are excited he is in the race. you are seeing the spike in the polls to ted cruz. trump has done a service to this campaign so far from our bases perspective. who is the serious leader? say mark: -- mark: you say you like trump and a lot of the others. 's electability, the fact that he would be the best on your agenda, what sets him apart from the others rather than saying superlatives? why is he better? guest: he is the guy that can

unite conservatives. you have seen him in iowa. he has brought steve king to the table. he has my endorsement as well. he can unite across the country. a bold andis he is courageous leader. he has a history of taking on both sides of the aisle, exposing what is wrong with the country and what should be done with it and what he has done with the solicitor general in texas and we would love to see him in a debate with hillary clinton. conservativeshese that checks all the boxes and has the resources to go the distance. that is why he got our endorsement and why he is uniting a lot of people. he can be a champion for the conservative cause. polling suggests he could win iowa. make the argument that he could

actually win a general election against let's say hillary clinton. that is not quite as guest: clear to a lot of people. hillary clinton -- guest: hillary clinton has a huge issue with her base, bernie sanders. we will see the base turnout like never before it ted cruz is the nominee. for these people saying the general election will be determined by independence, you have president romney who won the independent vote and the key tossup states. ted cruz in a hillary clinton debate, the american people would have an easy decision. he wins the general election hands down. you called and pick the winners of the last two iowa caucuses. andendorse mike huckabee rick santorum in 2012. your endorsement is considered to be a high-value. neither one of those guys went

on to win the republican nomination. what makes you think this time around you have a better judgment about who can win the nomination than the last two cycles? at 2008ake a look back and 2012. we selected huckabee in santorum and the country selected mccain and romney. i believe we got it right. the country got it wrong. the past for general election winners have come out of being winners in iowa. ted cruz hastime shown he has the resources which huckabee didn't have. he has the infrastructure to go the distance once he gets behind iowa. we could not be more excited about ted cruz's candidacy. even with our announcement we are seeing people give calls and e-mail saying we are on board, tell us what to do. an earlieraid in interview marco rubio is trying

to straddle different lanes. what does that mean? what are the lanes? he sees complete chaos in an establishment lane. he sees jeb bush, john kasich, you name it. there happens to be room. he is trying to go to the establishment lane but he sees lane, thevative tea party lane which launched them to be a senator. nothing against senator rubio. we like him a lot. he brings everything around the family. ted cruz is in the best position. guest: are you saying marco rubio is hurting himself by straddling lanes or that he is fussing at with his identity is about? guest: fussing up what our identity is about. we don't have people straddling lanes. senator cruz is doing that. the liberty lane. people love senator cruz.

the gop grassroots conservative lane, people love senator cruz. when you go to the evangelical lane they love him. is what is lifting him in the polls. a lot of have run races beside your chosen candidate, who else can win the caucuses? isst: i think donald trump -- we are in uncharted territory. if you turns out the crowds to the caucus-goers he could increase those numbers. he could win the iowa caucuses. mark: anybody else? guest: it is down between trump and crews. rubio is going to make a opportunity also. ted cruz has the opportunity to win iowa and dominate iowa.

if he dominates iowa it is game on in new hampshire and south carolina. john: let me ask you one thing about ted cruz's father. you said today that he had an important role in this endorsement in some way. explain what you think it is about his family roots that are important and how they influenced you. he is a great american. he loves this country. when he is going around stumping for his son the way he is stumping for his son, it is endearing. people love him. ted cruz comes from good stock. the way he raised ted. what is going to happen is that ted cruz will be the president of the united states and he can bring pride in that. john: our interview with senator

rob portman is next. back after this. ♪

mark: you may know about this conspiracy theory popularized by jeb bush donald trump is working for hillary clinton. unfortunately there is no way to know that conspiracy theory is true but what if it were? podcast,erial, the decided to devote a year to the trump conspiracy? it has all the turns and twists first season. what would that be like? [phone ringing]

>> hello. this is sarah. >> previously on serial. >> there is something going on with him that we don't know about. >> there is a tight of conjecture. >> i will get you the election. >> i am not getting out. i am going to win. >> he is staunch. >> answered this question for me. is donald trump a hillary clinton plant? that well.ow him >> i like her and her husband. >> this is a prepaid call from donald j trump. >> a phone call between bill clinton and donald trump. >> the problem for donald trump is why did you take the call? >> this call of all the calls is the one i think of as the smoking gun.

>> he tried to call and i didn't get the message. i called him back. >> tell us what that consisted of. >> it was very routine. >> why would a guilty man let me do this story? >> that is the best question you have asked me, sarah. >> idiotic, i know. >> bye-bye. mark: i can't believe we have to wait a whole week for another episode. [laughter] ♪

john: earlier today mark and i had a chat with senator rob

portman who talked about donald trump and the 2016 race. we asked about the state of his party. guest: it is strong for a couple of reasons. fromve a threat abroad. people look to republican to protect the country. we find that back home. it is the top issue. seniors about issues like social security but what came up was isis. based on the polling i have seen, it helps the republican party. we are getting some stuff done here. paul ryan as speaker is positive. if you look at the accomplishments, the first highway bill and a dozen years, we are working on legislation to get back to the regular order. you have a process in transparency. we have some things to talk about in terms of turning things

around the way the democrats ran this place versus us. the presidential race -- mark: what is the state of that? guest: it is chaotic. lots of different points of views being expressed. that will dump out. people will pay attention this coming summer. we'll have a nominee and we will see what happens. world, in thise country -- with all due respect. republicans do they have a bigger figure more than donald trump? guest: in terms of the republican party, all ryan has the highest elected office. people look to him for leadership. i saw his comments which were close to my home after donald trump made his comments about keeping muslims out of the united states. many people see that as the republican response. aboutthere was a article

the republican majority in the senate would be in jeopardy. you would be doomed if donald trump was the top of the ticket. do you agree? guest: i don't think he will be the top of the ticket. it is a hypothetical. you run your own race. you are letting people know what you think. i served in the house for 12 years. ran 10 points ahead of the presidential candidate. in 2010 i ran 15 points ahead. you run your own race. mark: you would dispute that donald trump thing the top of the ticket would way negatively on your race. guest: i don't think it is going to happen. i don't know how this is going to shake out. nobody does the when you look at that we have 10 candidates who are viable, i don't think you

can predict what is going to happen. we will see. in terms of domestic policy, what is a debate within the party that you think is interesting and important? guest: what i have liked about the debate is we talking about the big issues. in each debate the issue of tax reform has come up, entitlement reform. how do you actually take this level of debt that our country now faces? we're looking at having the highest that ever. -- highest debt ever. .n terms of the economy republicans have answers for that. democrats don't. they are talking about increasing spending to the point where we would not be able to sustain the commitments we have. i would like that on the tax side. i am a hawk on tax reform. we have an enormous opportunity to bring back jobs in my state

of ohio and around the country. republicans are talking about that. i see more similarity than is advertised. mark: there is an outlier, senator rubio, whose tax plan has been criticized. he is adding a lot of complications to the code, new credits rather than lowering rates and getting rid of deductions. do you like the rubio concept more than say the bush concept, which is more traditional? guest: i would pick and choose from them. they are better than the code. mark: what do you like? guest: taxes on families. we need to encourage more families to feel like if they have kids there is not a tax penalty, more people to get married. that is positive. you can do that in conjunction with progrowth policies that lower the rate and broaden the the which is simplifying tax code. that is what we have a great

opportunity to do. we are following behind the rest of the world in terms of our competitiveness because of our tax code. pretty much everyone acknowledges it including the president but he hasn't lifted a finger to deal with it. john: there is a debate about immigration from the mideast with relation of muslims. haltposture was we should resettling of the syrian refugees. guest: is that still your posture? ,or the past several weeks being a member of the homeland security committee i was in a position to get information the fbi on the record, sworn testimony saying we don't have the intelligence to be will to close the gaps to know who these people are. we shouldn't be a line people to come into this country. we can close the gaps. it is going to take efforts. that is a small number of syrian refugees. john: christian refugees mall

syrian refugees. guest: it is not a question of religion, it is a question of security. john: what most needs to be fixe d? guest: we don't have a relationship with the government in syria. we do have people on the ground who can cooperate. we have no intelligence services. as compared to iraq where he had a lot of the information, we need to be much more cautious. that is the point i have made. with regard to iraq, a few weeks whotwo guys from kentucky were iraqi refugees were convicted of terrorism. even in that we had some terrorists. i think we are increasing risk today even compared to then. we need to be careful. mark: a lot of republicans tried boots on there for ground but the number should be

determined by the pentagon. often there is a back channel that bypasses the white house. you know how many boots on the ground the ground that indigo would like to have? guest: i don't like the word boots on the ground. these are sons and daughters and brothers and sisters. you only make that decision after careful consideration. there is a multipronged effort that needs to be undertaken. is to intensify the air campaign. if you need more resources on the ground for intelligence and spotters, to more accurately target these airstrikes we're told half the planes come back with their bombs in tact. this is crazy. we are not providing information to our own pilots. we need to intensify the campaign and it will require more resources on the ground. to be sure we have the intelligence to do the job. mark: is there a tripwire? guest: what we need to do is engage the country's in the

neighborhood. obviously they have as much at stake is anybody. hen: senator cruz has said -- is he courting you on that? is he trying to become mr. congeniality in this and it? -- in the senate? guest: i am not endorsing anybody. z is a colleague. we've always been friendly. mark: probably like everybody. you like everybody. guest: 99 other senators. i like to see them as individuals. i don't agree with them all. whether it is ted cruz or chuck schumer. you try to work together. were thedonald trump nominee would you support him? start,as i said from the

several months ago, i intend to support the republican nominee unless something crazy happens. we will see. john: would that be something crazy? guest: we will see. i don't think he will be the nominee. john: would you support him or not? guest: it depends what his platform is. who knows what the positions are going to be. he has changed quite a few. ♪ [singing] means byn of no means, king of the road ♪ john: thank you, we'll be right back. ♪

, a question on if donald trump and ben carson have the skills to be commander-in-chief. now the times has released audio. he has reported saying my approach to the media has been to bear hug carson and trump. there is going to be more on this. john: from mark and me at the white house, until tomorrow, sayonara. ♪

emily: i emily chang, you are watching bloomberg west. connecticut governor dan malloy says he will use an executive order to ban gun sales to people

on federal no-fly watch lists they can connecticut the first state to do so. he said the state is working to get access to these federal lists. gun rights advocates oppose it because they say it violates the rights of people who have not been convicted of a crime. president obama has signed a teacherschanges in how are evaluated. child a rewrite of the no left behind law and takes power away the federal government and gives it to the state. students will still have to take that earlier wired reading and math tests. winnersl peace collected their award today in norway. they were honored for their upholding democracy and the peaceful political process in the north african nation. they appealed for international coppe operation.