every morning. every morning i wake up and somebody is missing. over to neasee the opening. lot of focus on the fed next week. the possibility of a rate rise, and also, investors wait to seek more data from the u.s. today and china in the weekend. let's look at the equity markets. .4%.100 is down we are still waiting for the dax to open. forhe meantime, watch out anglo american. it has been downgraded. it may be cut further. it has been a tough week for

miners. down almost 3/10 of 1%. keep an eye on miners. watch severin schwasygentia. the merger deal could happen as soon as today. back to you. heidi in let's go to hong kong to see how the asian markets are performing. idi: it was another negative session and asia. gains, but byce the end of trade, the nikkei managed to hang on to positive territory. 1%.nikkei 225 up

broad-based selloff into the end of the week. see gains out of those japanese markets. the pharmaceuticals have seen a rally today. particularly when it comes to cancer treatment drugs. is up 7%. .86%.airlines is up it was the chinese story, the case of the missing billionaire ceo. we have been in a trading halt all day today.

that stock is still up over 30%. it is a developing story. we've seen this play across a notd sentiment in terms of knowing what is going to happen, what regulators are looking into, and where that next low will land. back to you. guy: what a story. china has buffett of gone missing. in the markets, we are three minutes and here in london. the miners are on a downside. here is the lineup. first up, commodities declining. industries. then, russia decides, will the country's central-bank respond to a drop in prices with a rate hike? and later, french politics. what to expect in this region's elections.d of

an increased foreign investment may offset a currency that felt to a four year low. our investors using interest in buying chinese bonds? robin, joining us from hong kong. why does the chinese debt seem to be losing its appeal? robin: it does not seem to be working the way we thought it would. it is closing at about four year lows. advantage of chinese bonds and u.s. treasuries dipping to the lowest they have in five years. that is ruining the appeal of chinese debt. if they do decide to increase rates, that will be more bad news for the chinese.

jonathan: it is jonathan in london. talk to us what is going on with the currency. give us a little bit of perspective and try to tie this into the imf decision a couple weeks back. yuan has dropped in eight of the last nine days. it was never expected to rise after the imf entry. what is happening now is, the feeling of the market is the pboc is trying to release some of the pent up pressure. it had been holding up the yuan for months before that. we had the devaluation and august. before that, we had billions of dollars pushing up the yuan. now, it is trying to release the pressure. that is basically, what the market is expecting.

jonathan: we had this discussion already. you talked about whether or not we are looking at devaluation or whether we should be calling this a depreciation. we may be sounding like semantics, but is this important? robin: i think it is. we had very little choice but to allow the decline of the currency. he has to meet the growth target of 6.5% over the next five years. for an exchange reserves are depleted. droparket is expected to $33 billion. he has very little choice, but to allow a decline. that said, i would not call it a devaluation because that suggests a more extreme policy change and the pboc does not seem to be going for a policy change at the moment. to have you with

us this morning. thank you, there is much. still with us, steve. we finished the last segment talking about communication. we go to the world's second-largest economy. you are scratching your head about what to the pboc are up to. how do you make sense of what is happening in china? steve: they have the advantage of looking at everybody else and figuring out the better way of doing it. it was 20 years ago when the fed was not communicating what its rate was. you had to guess what the rate was after they moved the quantity of money. so for china, they have the option as well. they look at the ecb's communication and look at what the fed is doing and maybe, doing it differently. anathan: so they can see

better way of doing it? nobody is entitled here to know exactly what is going on. and being slightly opaque seems to make sense. understand what i'm saying, you clearly did not understand what i'm saying. that is the famous quote. central bank policy making his tentative policy and the rest is communication. why have we gone from one to the other? steve: it is about trying to manage the expectations. this unconventional policy is quite complicated. guy: you have to believe. steve: it is a confidence trick. there are no jobs being created. we have to believe it. so, the communication is really important. but actually, being too clear could be dangerous. i think, you have to get this balance between communicating just enough, whilst trying to

manage this confidence trick. guy: you've written about condit weigh quantitative exhaustion. the fx market does what? it does not move anymore. array coming towards the end zone? did we ever get to that point with the fed or ecb when they say something and it does not have the same affect anymore? we may havethe snb hit the practical limit, but there are practical limits to how far the rates can go into negative territory. practically, we will fighter it out by feeling our way. we have had one year of that. this exhaustion idea, it depends where you are in the world.

maybe what happens, if you are exhausted with one unconventional policy, you try another. we thought about this idea for you have qe, negative rates, fiscal policy, and ultimately, you can get paralysis. i think we could be saying paralysis right now, whereby, the system does not do anything. it is not working. was talking so, draghi about this and said, actually, we are looking in the wrong place. he was basically saying, taxation and the other fixes are really important right now. reduce the present state and taxation because then you create demand for money, which is what we don't have right now. steve: that is the animal

spirit. we have done as much as we can. can we now have help from the government's? you can see in countries like spain, there is a clear benefit coming through. although people on wages would not agree with that. the fact is, it is working and the economy is growing. need more common policies, more integration as well. you need steps toward a fiscal union. i think draghi is pushing all of this at the moment. for the last six or seven years, it has been all about central banks. jonathan: stay with us, from hscb. the miners have been in all kinds of pain this week. we will talk crude and mining. we are 11 minutes into the 25%.ion and down by .

the seventh straight day of losses. ♪

jonathan: good morning, welcome back to "on the move." it is a big week for the minors, both glencore and anglo american. they have last-ditch plans to protect their economies. the hsbc is still

alongside us, along with the chief correspondent for bloomberg. prices: aredity plunging. think about automakers globally. they are enjoying some of their lowest prices. it almost a decade, that is. tsey are making more profis because commodity prices have come down. it is going to take a bit of time before they benefit fully. as we go into the new year, the full benefit of lower commodity prices will become apparent for big industrial consumers. ultimately, the consumer, which will be the interesting angle. javier: that is what i don't know. will those companies put bonuses and increase their pml? maybe a little bit of both.

the economy is low. weakness in consumer demand, mab ye they need to give consumers happy. watching people are this program in the u.k. are finally chairing. e is anyjor, if there pushback going into 2016, will they move for you? steve: there's a bit more focus on inflation than bonds. people think devaluation is good on inflation of the bonds. i think the recent developments and commodities will challenge the idea that you will get much of a rise in headline inflation. the yieldsng now, if will go lower in the second half of next year. if they need to be brought for thorward. or, it is completely wrong.

these are the 10 years. italy at 0.9%. these are incredible levels to a lot of people. steve: it is quite dramatic. there are close to five basis points every day in the spring. it has been there. our forecast puts it into line with the japanese. a 10 year, plus 20 i think that is quite plausible. we will have to wait and see. not stop buying next year, or the year after. momentum quite some behind this move. jonathan: one more question. a lot of people said the ecb is looking at the five year. we all think that is how we should judge inflation. why is that wrong? d bye: it is distorte

the level of yields and of the curve is steep, it will make it look like the five-year is rising when it is not. i think you had a bit of that going into the ecb meeting. they were able to say that the five-year is moving toward their objective of 2%, but it was all smoke and mirrors. have to be very careful with that forward measure. mabye, it is better to look at a range of the one-year, one year, and the two-year. jonathan: let's look at the fundamentals of that curb. inflation expectations, and we had a discussion about crude. where is brent going next year? everyone is forecasting in one direction, lower. jonathan: and then there was one

big discussion about the federal reserve. put all of that into your thinking about the forecast and yield going into 2016. steve: i just wonder about the rate hikes, if they come. we have not seen them yet. i will believe it when i see it. whether the fed can follow t hrough. three months is a very long time. the second one, if they do a first one. if we get to march. march is three months away. if you look back over the past 12 months, how many massive periods ofolatility have you had? a dozen? if you put them on a chart, you can go back through the eb oc, pboc, the snb at the start of the year. reckon there were at

least 10. i think we will have a conventional tightening phase. hikes just won't stick and at some point, they will stop or capitulate. jonathan: i wonder what carney does in that situation. thank you for joining us and thanks as well to our chief energy correspondent. we are not done with that conversation. tune in this weekend. they are putting the fight against the islamic state in jeopardy. another day another executive goes mia. more on the chinese billionaire that has finished out of thin air. a big thanks to the big man from hsbc and a special happy birthday to his daughter. ♪

jonathan: welcome back, you are move."g on the mo "on the >> clients are blocked from pulling money from a mutual fund. signs of stress mount in credit markets. the company put the funds in a trust and will sell them over time. blocking was intentional. the new argentina president has kicked off several wall street

banks for loans up to $10 billion. erves record res their lowest levels in several years. there are divisions over the obligations placed on rich and poor countries. what the long-term goals should be? there is a report that the final agreements from the climate meeting will be pushed back until tomorrow. is fosun it international. bonds have plunged by a record amount. there was a report that it's billionaire chairman has gone missing. our beijing bureau chief joins us now. nick, i have read a lot of stories about these people going missing in china. please, give us some details.

draw it really does spotlight on a situation where you have the communist party basically, able to detain people to hold them incommunicado be investigated themselves, or to assist with the investigations of other targets. we don't have any information firsthand on the fosun chairman. we don't know what has happened in his case. he truly has vanished, according to "caixin" magazine. he could be helping with a corruption investigation into the former vice mayor of shanghai. you have the ruling party, you have the rule of law, and then you have the communist party. they get to do what they want, when they want to. jonathan: where do these people

go, nick? what happens to them? nick: we really don't know what is happening with mr. guo. times where many executives will be taken into assist with investigations. for example, you have the heads of three securities brokerages were taken into help with investigations. these may be into them in particular, but they may be asked to give information. member of thee a come in is party, or if there is a member being investigated, the party can say, you are under obligation to help us. they may then be released like nothing has ever happened. really, they are obligated to do what they are told. jonathan: it is probably the story over the past 24 hours. guy, where did they go? when they turn up again, do they say, i have been away, but

everything is all right. guy: i don't know, but you wake up every morning and another chinese official has gone missing. after the break, russia and oil. ♪

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it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. city of london. this is "on the move." this is the seventh straight day of losses, the longest losing streak since august. 2/10 of 1%.by 1/4the stoxx 600 is up by of 1%. guy: that shows how exposed that index is. that is where crude is this morning. wty trading at .46%.

copper is bouncing a little bit. i think it will be a really big determinants over the next few days. the euro-dollar is trading slightly to the upside. this as we head towards the week that will be about the fed. jonathan: the market moves this morning. we are 30 minutes into the trade. amx.am starting with as 27%,k lost as much the most in six months after reports that it had lost further contracts for apple. million ofut a $110 contracts, according to those reports. today, up 5%ing there. it is the best performer on the stock 600 today. another one of the best way, thers is beltwayl holding group that build homes

in the u.k. 10% is the magic number here. the average selling price for the current financial year is to rise about 10% on them growth through july 2016. it was reporting periods of 18 weeks. finally, to the biggest decline on the stock 600. looking at eurofins. yesterday after the european market closed, we heard that it ornceled a share sale on po global market conditions. according to a statement on the company website, they said they would penalize of their existing shareholders disproportionately. they were meant to raise funds for exhibitions. guy: the bank of russia expects to keep monetary policy

unchanged. the country is battling its first recession in six years. ryan joins us for more. d ofgside him, tim hea strategy. ryan, how certain ryan: i wanted abbreviation like that. jonathan: i can make one for you. hold.they are on there is a spread. and there is big movement. the central bank itself would love to cut rates they key rate is at 11%. economy is contracting. if you were to ask the economists, a couple months ago the majority of them were expecting a big cut. that is not the case and the reason for that is in a nutshell, inflation.

inflation has been coming down 16%.17% to there are concerns that we could see another uptake, not the kind of downward trajectory the central bank would like. we have lower oil prices. some people would argue that the should depreciate more than it has. russia has declared economic war against turkey and banned turkish and ports. that will have consequences to a certain extent on inflation back home. without that turkish goods, the russians also bent a lot of ce needed for thedu european union. jonathan: i want to understand the push and pull here. we have the dollar ruble at

$1.69. isl me understand what happening here. if the central bank could take -rupal trading.r rupalthey want the weaker. i think the rupal has to make good job for them. it has been a great trade for the ministry of finance, in particular. it has helped up top the double value of oil revenues. it is a tricky balance. agree, more or less, with what brian said. if you go back before the turkish-russian spat, they thought rates would go lowered because they cared about growth, but not that much about inflation. the drop in oil prices has really shocked them. this week has been commentary about potential revisions to the

budget. it were talking about, with the $40 a barrel, the deficit may go above the gdp. if oil drops to $30, these are big deficits. the reserve gets used up totally. likes stability. he does not like risk. jonathan: 15% inflation. is inflation that high. jonathan: it can't be. the economy really does not need to have these things done right now. lower.t is 15%, on going one of the team changes was the turkish spat. that severely impacted them. they would still like to cut rates. they would like the rupal weak uncertain this

environment, it has a big fiscal impact on growth, they will wait and see. give it a month or two. jonathan: give us a sense of what is happening domestically at the moment. what is their experience at $40 crude? is still high over there. the people of saudi arabia are doing ok. are the people of russia doing ok? ryan: increasingly not. if you right now is the russian middle-class could shrink by 1/4 . in russia, unemployment is a strange thing. you could have people working four day a week. the russians have an expression, "they pretend to pay us, we pretend to work." they don't fire them because putin doesn't want them to.

this is a ticking time bomb for the russians. minister, oneance hour ago, said they anticipate oil between $40-$60 for the next seven years. that, for the russians, is armageddon. that means, better down the hatches. here they come, we will have social unrest. not in 2015 or 2016, but they are concerned about 2017. jonathan: why then? thethanryan: would you agree tt inflation problem will go away? inflation will tick down. it russians will take it on the chin. they are used to it. after a few years, the lack of purchasing power, the issues with unemployment, increasing poverty, these are the kind of things that could start to bother people after they get a little less patriotic about what

they are doing in syria. hasthan: russia interventionist foreign policy stunts. they have been driven by the weak performance of the russian economy. guy: you have a problem at home, you make trouble abroad. diplomacy hasal weakened. they don't like social unrest. they are very sensitive to that. trucker sis in the streets in russia. if you are in the kremlin, you are thinking about the miners in the 1980's. nobody is saying it is anything near that scale, that it is a canary in the call mind of what might come a couple years from now. but theylike putin,

don't like that they are paying so much to travel down russian roads. jonathan: the elephant in the room at the moment is the debate sanctions. a longterm mindset with russia. this is a time of very low oil prices. but they have structural problems. back to 2013, russia grew at 1.3%. that is the fundamental problem. jonathan: that was the canary in the coal mine. tim: putin's stands has been more interventionist. i think that will weigh on assists in the long-term. markets can get sold off. we can see enthusiasm. maybe sanctions get modified.

i don't think sanctions get moderated. it doesn't matter what i think. it is what the miners think. ,> two caveats to that though. if you look at manufacturing with what is going on with import substitution, i know american cowboys operating in russia, creating russian beef. these guys are killing it, even though they are american. and secondly, never rule out vladimir putin reinventing himself. jonathan: ryan, they give her a much. tim, do we get the cut? ends on what happens with inflation. jonathan: thank you for joining us this morning. next, shock and outrage in

europe after donald trump says he will ban muslims from entering the united states. we discussed that next. ♪ guy: welcome back, you are

watching "on the move." here is the bloomberg business flash nejra: the weak leverage

positions. this is a result of commodity price pressures. $5.1 billion after 97% of shareholders bought stock. ins is a vote of confidence the ceo to turn around the age banks.sia focus the agency says planned dividends will require increased debt. yum's plans to return $6 billion to shareholders. that is your bloomberg business flash. for more of this, go to the bloomberg terminal at bloomberg.com. jonathan: thank you very much. now, the attacks in paris, along with the refugee crisis. we had the first round of france's regional elections last weekend. european leaders condemned

donald trump's anti-muslim comments. our next guest says trump has long been trumped. he is mark champion and he joins us now. elephant in the room. mark: it is disingenuous to say this is all about the tragic events of number 13. this has been happening for a while. the tragedy for the mainstream parties is they have not understood the threat that was coming at them and how they needed to deal with it. politicstunately, in it is all about the language. they have done too much to try and outflank the front by adopting their language. usually, that does not work. you saw that in the first round of elections. what they really need to do is focus on the economy, which is

why people are so upset. more people are now willing to look for a protest party. they simply don't see, it doesn't really matter if i vote for the socialists or -- theya r are not going to fix the economy. jonathan: how should a look at europe? i am looking at fringe parties. mainstream parties in those countries doing things that could be done in france? or are they too isolated? marc: every country is different, but in spain they have done some fairly important stuff on at the reform side. people can see stuff starting to move. employment is hurting to come down. it is tough in spain, that they can see it is starting to work. in france, they can't see anything. it is still the economy.

the economy provides the base, it creates the environment in which crazy ideas can thrive. jonathan: the interesting part of this, for me personally, is the lack of a market response. we told this was the biggest risk for european markets, except, it wasn't. the greek situation was restricted and confined from the rest of europe. as we go into next year, the likelihood of donald trump getting elected, when does it start to become something a lot more worrying? marc: i think when the unlikely he comes likely. in france, for example. one of theseer won regional elections before. we will see on sunday, whether they do. you won't get six regions. it may conceivably get three or four.

they might get none. the point is, she has already changed the politics in france. when you are getting 30% and you are in a straight vote in beating the mainstream parties, things have already changed. in the u.s., who knows with trump. he may simply burn out and we will be laughing at it in a few months time. thernatively, he may win republican nomination. personally, i cannot see him winning the presidency. who would have thought? when he first appeared on the scene, who would have said he would still be here? guy: marc, amazing. mark champion joining us. thank you very much, indeed. banks, what do they have in common?

we will get the bloomberg best books list of 2015, when we come back. ♪

jonathan: good morning and welcome back to "on the move." it is not really a beautiful end to the week. 4/10 of is down by 1%. we have a rate decision from the

rush holt central-bank. and this afternoon, the u.s. retail sales. it didn't really not play out in the u.s. retail sales. look out for the number later. guy? guy: so, what do former bank of england governor mervyn king, abby joseph cohen of goldman sachs, and central bank of chile president rodrigo vergara all have in common? they reckon ben bernanke's " wasr, "the courage to act one of the best books they read in 2015. >> is very much reflects the kind of confidence they were po lling. " came out a to act couple months back. jonathan: when you look at something about the central

bank, i looked at the ecb and you speak to someone and at the end of the conversation, you ask what their favorite book is. he started reading off novels. and it struck me that these guys reada lot of time to novels. his favorite book is a novel. marriage."ies of draw your own conclusions. it was ay launch qe2, three parter, a trilogy. mentioned "the rise of robots" on the list as well. jonathan: on a serious note, we talk about trump and sometimes people get the wrong end of the stick. a very serious man is reading the trumpet biography. >> he wants to be prepared and

know what we could run into. he is alert. the technology story is genuinely interesting. it has been a theme developing throughout this year. robots," of the this economic phenomenon many equate to the industrial revolution. >> it is a theme in the last couple years. there he highs, up, a robotic book. "the rise of the robots" won the ft prize. people try to map out the future, we are in the robotic age. jonathan: great to have you with us this morning. that is your reading list, if

you want a book. guy: if you are going to read one book this weekend, read ben bernanke's book. jonathan: "the pulse" is coming up next. fightre putting the against the islamic state. a quick look at the markets. the euro agains the south african rand guy: just to your point about what is happening. the rupee be stories about turkey next week. as we work our way through next guys are going to be the ones in the firing line. they will all have a turbulent week, but it will be those emerging markets who will feel it. that is it from guy

johnson and i. if you want to discuss markets, we are on twitter. the best of luck for the rest of your day. ♪

francine: the dollar gains while emerging markets stock its slump. an central bank meets as extended oil selloff ways on the vrabel. reports out of china saying that a billionaire has gone missing. shares are halted. to "the pulse." european bloomberg's