francine: the dollar gains while emerging markets stock its slump. an central bank meets as extended oil selloff ways on the vrabel. reports out of china saying that a billionaire has gone missing. shares are halted. to "the pulse." european bloomberg's headquarters in london. we are getting breaking news.

let's get the price of oil up for you. iea is putting out the report. they are saying they are seeing a glut last until late 2016. another 12 months of oil glut. they talk about opec. they say opec will continue pumping. we saw december for opec is basically saying you can pump as much as you want. that is the picture for u.s. crude. 36.60. brent 39.49. a lot of investor saying we could go to 30. emerging markets stocks are headed for its longest losing streak in six months as concerns grow about next week's tread meeting. mark barton has been charting it. mark: if you want to gauge how risk-averse investors are ahead of the fed rate decision on wednesday, look no further than the msci emerging markets index. this is the last eight days.

for an eighth consecutive day. period.5.6% over that this is the longest losing run since june. a slumping commodity prices to a 16 year low. concerns about china's economic slowdown and the prospect of higher u.s. interest rates, which are lessening the appeal of riskier assets. which is why the yen has endured weekly gain and three-month. it is the world's best performing major currency against the dollar this week. rising almost 1%. this is the five-day char. haven asset. -- this is the five-day chart. the yen has also risen against all 31 of its major peers in the last six-month. that throws into doubt the bank of japan's ability to reach its 2% inflation target by march 2017. could droprices

out of inflation prices next year but that could be done by a rise in currency, which pushes down on imports prices -. jpmorgan stanley predicts the yen will outperform all its major peers in 2016. i want to finish with iron ore. talk about weekly losing runs. this is the charts for the entire of 2015. losing the longest streak since the height of the global financial crisis in october 2008. this week, 62% content delivered to a global benchmark. closed down $40 a metric ton in the first time in seven years. low-cost supplies hurt the likes of rio and bhp billiton are increasing output. china, of course, is shifting its focus away from heavy industry. miners simple he will not cut production. that sounds familiar.

opec will not cut production. they are worried that volume will be snapped up by their rivals. this benchmark is down by 46% in 2015. what a losing run for iron ore. francine: that puts everything into context. let's introduce our guest. he's invesco's head of emerging markets. great to have you on the program. when you look at emerging markets, the fed has flagged for the last year that they will but now -- hike the probability is so high. >> many people are expecting a " dovish hike." i'm not sure what that means. i suppose the idea is that that nguageillh ike with la that comes everybody down and they will not move in a surprise kind of way like they did before.

francine: 25 basis points. and next year gradual. so itdual, preannounced gets priced into the front end yf the u.s. curve and b extension priced into other markets before it happens. i suppose that is the logic of this new forward guidance. against that, there is this issue of data dependence. so i think the uncertainties are going to continue. what it would say coming to emerging markets is that we have seen quite a lot of outflows, particularly retail outflows. as we have been just hearing it hit the equity markets over a long period. so there has been a lot of external adjustment from these funds outlflows. what we think we're going to see in 2016 as the ecb remains on an easing trajectory is a shift in the adjustment in the em from external to domestic. it is going to be another tough year for em. francine: as a whole or country

specific? what will be the worst performer? >> that is the trillion dollar question. i think first of all it will be challenging for most emerging market countries. it will be challenging for the asset class as a whole. having said that, there will be a good deal of diversions. i think the greatest challenges are going to continue to be in the commodity exporters. as china continues to rebalance and to shift from an investment towards consumption and also toward services. so that involves some moderate slowdown and the chinese growth rate. and also the composition of chinese demand for the exports of other emerging market countries, particularly commodity exporters could with a strong dollar, with the fed tightening and china rebalancing, that is where the the pressure is going to be. we are going to see volatility in brazil because of that external adjustment.

politics and the impeachment process. it is going to be quite competent it. basically means that the politicians are grinding to a halt of they cannot put the structural reforms through. of issuesre are a lot their underlying the politics. the most important one is a fiscal adjustment. the budget deficit is widening out sharply. a 10 handleng to be on the fiscal deficit by the end of this year. in.they need to reign that otherwise, public debt will continue to rise rapidly. that, allg said all these pressures in brazil, issues in south africa, issues in russia and turkey, there are bright spots. i hate to say about my native country of india is doing relatively well. we think that is going to continue, because of course, india is the beneficiary of a lot of the things going on in the world, particular the collapsing commodities. in with: yet modi came so much hope. investors were lauding him as

the biggest reformer. a lot of these reforms are taking a bit more time. than: a lot more time people unrealistically expected. india is a very complicated country. maybe the most complicated society on earth. it is lots of countries put together under one federal bucket. it is very difficult to coordinate. i think people really got ahead of themselves and the absence of a crisis thinking that just having a majority in the lower house was going to get everything done. so, that is going to continue to be a problem. the good news is there is a central bank that is doing all the right things. and like i said, there is a lot of good luck -- oil inflow prices are down. india is going to continue to do well. francine: thank you so much. he stays with us. we will talk about china, argentina next. here's a look in the meantime and what else is on our radar this friday. bloomberg sources say argentina's new president has kicked off talks with several wall street banks for one-year loans of up to $10 billion. as he tries to shore up -- which are at their lowest.

standard charter's has raised about 5.1 billion dollars after almost 97% of shareholders bought stock in a rights issue. the take-up is seen as a vote of eo'sidence in the c strategy. a petition to have donald trump banned from entering the u.k. has received more than half a million signatures. it was set up in response to his call for a halt on muslims entering the united states. any petition with more than 100,000 signatures is automatically considered for debate in parliament. it is going to be a very colorful debate. up next, another day, another executive goes missing in action. or on china's missing mogul coming up next. make sure you tune into bloomberg this weekend for a look inside iraqi curtis stand where the falling oil price and political divisions are putting the fight against. islamic state in jeopardy ♪ ♪

francine: welcome back to "the pulse" streaming on bloomberg.com, your tablet and your phone. shares have plunged by a record amount in the company has suspended shares after reports that his chairman has gone missing. let's get now to our beijing bureau chief. what do we know? the chairman is missing. we don't know much more about that.

report in ais a magazine, a reputable magazine saying he is unreachable and may be in the custody of authorities. we have no evidence to suggest that he did anything wrong, however there are other reports that she is helping with the isestigation, the--- he helping with the corruption investigation into shanghai's former mayor. this is a situation we have had several times were executives from chinese companies such as some of the securities brokerages will go missing and then it comes out later that they were helping chinese authorities with investigations into others or were the targets of probes themselves. in this case, it looks like according to media reports he is helping with the investigation into another person. so he is not himself under probe. francine: what has been the market impact? bonds fell and shares were halted. nick: fosun is such a massive

conglomerate. styles himself after warren buffett. real estate, commodities, i think they even have a stake in cirque du soleil. there are a lot of companies linked to fosun that are traded. when something like this happen, they all shut down. .he bonds falling by a record that record fall does indicate the unease the markets feel when a major figure goes missing like in this case. francine: this morning, we also have news from a developer, from one of the so-called ghost towns in china, saying it is struggling to repay bonds. what is the story and are we looking at a default? nick: well, the question about a default is a very good one. so this is one of the classic ghost towns. it is the story we have been all but waiting for the other shoe

to drop. a lot of these local governments took out huge loans, sold land, then developers put it massive numbers of buildings under the belief that if we build it they will come. people will fill those buildings. massive property overhang in china. people are not coming to fill those buildings. and bondholders said, hey, we are going to take the opt out option. now the developer is saying we cannot do it. we are sort of seeing the fallout from that slower economy in the property overhang where developers are just not able to sell the apartments that they have built so much of. francine: thank you so much. nick wadhams, our beijing bureau chief. das, ourng in arnard guest host for the hour. when you look at china, we have so much concerns against bad loans, possible defaults. there is an underlying assumption that they will be ok. arnad: i think that is right. there is an underlying assumption. there is a good deal of logic the hind that assumption.

the situation in china, although there has been a big debt buildup and some of it has been a big external build up. it is not like other cases of emerging market bad loan situations. there is not a major cross-border risk. most of the data is domestic -- debt is domestic debt. the banking system is largely state own and there are still capital controls. they are pretty porous as far as nonresidents are concerned. they are pretty effective as far as residence, favors and investors onshore are concerned. we are unlikely for all kinds of reasons to have the kind of traditional emerging markets debt crisis. almost certainly not going to have that. what is much more likely is that we are going to have a problem of this debt overhang being worked out over a long period as the economy rebalance is away from, as we were talking about before, away from investment

toward services on the output side and away from net trade towards consumption. now, challenge with that that is absolutely the right thing for china to do, the challenge with that is that you are rebalancing from a high productivity, high-growth model to a set of circumstances that implies lower growth and productivity. lower overall gdp growth. that is the challenge the market is trying to get to grips with and having all these debate about the quality of the data and what is actually going on. so, we think it is a landing. we think it is a bumping landing rather than a hard landing or a soft landing. hard landing typically you get a hard landing -- francine: a recession globally? arnab: if there is a hard landing in china? even if we are having a soft landing or a bumpy landing as i'm characterizing it, it feels like a hard landing in the commodities part of the global supply chain. and that is part of the thing

that is going on in brazil. so, i think even without a hard landing in china, you have serious repercussions around the rest of the world. i think on china, what a despair to say i think is that they're doing the right thing or they are trying to do the right thing. when it comes to the economy. because this model of growing very rapidly through rapid can relation of debt and continue to have a structure of the components of gdp that are extremely unbalanced, that is clearly the wrong thing. an investor, how much do you look at? today we have the chairman of fosun missing. we do not know the story but shares are halted on the back of that. we also have china cabinet emerging the cabinet of cosco group -- the merging of cosco group and shipping. two investors have to stay cool -- do investors have to

state cool? arnab: the part of the market that is focused on the equity space has a focus on the bottom up issues. but i would say is taking a step back, the real story is that trying toxi is improve the reputation and the function of the communist party. and that is, again, the right thing to do. the danger there is that it starts to look to people outside or inside the country less as a kind of general institutional clean up and reform and more as power of a coalescing of and personalization rather than it institutional is asian. -- an institutionalization. we need to wait in see -- the good story would be that the communist party moves in the 'sght direction under xi leadership. there is evidence of that. youou want to be a bull,

can see it that way. if you want to be a bear, you can see it the other way. francine: thank you for now. let's talk russia. we have news from the bank of russia expected to keep monetary policy on change when it meets today. that is despite the countries battling its first recession in six years. ryan chilcote is here with the latest. when you look at the oil price, when you look at inflation, this is a country that is going to very tough times. ryan: if you look at the economists that we surveyed, 2/3 of them think there will be no cut today. 1/3 saying that there may be a kind of a 50 basis points. the prevailing view is no cut. despite the fact that the governor of the central bank herself has made it clear she would like to see a cut. all of those same analysts a couple of months ago would tell you that there would be a cut. but problem that has sort of surfaced in the last month or so is inflation. inflation peaked a couple of months ago at 17%. it was headed lower, around 15%.

now there is concern is that inflation could pick up again or least not decline as quickly as the central bank would like. because we have this other leg down in the price of oil, a, and retaliated with turkey, after turkey downs that russian jet in syrians guys, the theian -- in syrian skies, russians banned a lot of turkish imports. that means less produce, less competition on the shelves and super knockers. -- in supermarkets. competitions, higher prices. there is this newfound concern about higher prices. that is why the majority of analysts think that she will not cut rates. but she does like to surprise people. francine: what about the ruble, weaker? ryan: the the problem with ruble at 70 to the dollar, is

that if you look at the price of terms, itsed in ruble has fallen over the last five years. a lot of people think that as the price of oil falls, sodas the russian ruble. yes, but the correlation is no longer one to one. the ruble is overvalued compared to the price of oil. the russian budget gets half of its revenue from oil and gas. vladimir putin needs a weaker to narrow the budget deficit. so that is the issue. of course, the other side of this a weaker ruble means higher inflation. in this case they're more concerned about higher inflation than they are about the budget deficit. francine: they do so much. we will have to continue to monitor russia -- thank you so much. arnab, what do you make of russia? 2015 was tough.

this goes a little bit of way to why putin focus so much on geopolitics. 2016 is going to be even tougher for russia. look att invesco we things very top-down and bottom-up as well, particularly in emerging markets. in the case of russia, what ryan about, thisking issue of the fall and the oil price translating into a weaker and higher inflation expectations. that is the way that the budget gap is being close in the case of russia. very importanter factor that we have to worry about when it comes to inflation in russia and the local market and investing there is what is going on in the budget. there are all these conflicts, some of them frozen, some of them not so frozen, some of them like with turkey involving a lot of saber rattling, more than actual conflict or substance.

so, there are a lot of factors going on. the bottom line is that, although the geopolitics are very messy and, located the domestic politics as well, the macro policy makes a lot more sense than it has in quite some time, at least twice. the structural issues, the business environment, these things are not improving but they are doing more or less the right things. francine: do you get into bonds? arnab: i would say that this question about the interest rate in russia is pair a question about the outlook for oil. what we had been thinking is that oil would hit a bottom and recover from there. but as you were saying earlier, the iaea is talking about this glut continuing. saudi arabia has an economic and political interest in continue to keep the price of oil low. we don't think you can be much lower than here. we will see a bottoming out in russia at some point in 2016. francine: i of two countries i

need to get to in two minutes. south africa. is this a watershed moment after the president sacked his finance minister. investors are starting to free gout. -- freak out. arnab: there are very good reasons to watch the situation like a hawk. president zuma has done some quite concerning things throughout his tenure. also, i think the central bank in south africa is a pillar of stability. or later have to do the right thing for the circumstances and the wrong thing for the economy, which is to tighten monetary policy to head off these concerns. the risk i think we are looking maybe this 2017 and event with a finance minister has brought that board, is a downgradesome more taking south africa below investment grade and taking it out of some global government bond nc's and sparking some

selling. there has been some precautionary unwinding of positions because of that possibility. there is also the external balance is deteriorating, even though oil import prices are way down. south africa imports oil but exports other commodities. they need to tighten up fiscal and monetary. francine: too early to get into argentina. we have a new president looking for a loan. arnab: there has been a rally. the finance minister tells a very good story. i used to work with him in the 1990's. very good people. bright ideas. it is going to be complicated and difficult to sort the situation out but it is coming from a bad place. ,a change in the margin will make a big difference. francine: like a pro, he finished in time. our guest host for the first half hour. luxury retaillk with the creative director of the british jewelry

brand. we will talk whether the saudis are back. there is always a commodity angle even when we talk high luxury. that story is coming up next. ♪ sure, tv has evolved over the years.

it's gotten squarer. brighter. bigger. it's gotten thinner. even curvier. but what's next? for all binge watchers. movie geeks. sports freaks. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. tand that's what we're doings to chat xfinity.rself, we are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. and this includes our commitment to being on time. every time. that's why if we're ever late for an appointment, we'll credit your account $20.

it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. francine: welcome back. i'm francine lacqua. we are just getting some data out of the u.k. this is extremely important because it filters through how mark carney sees the u.k. realm and it's unchanged at 2% for the month of november. this is one of the mandates for the amount -- for the bank of england. we had just yesterday the doe. this will give us more of a sense of when he's ready to hike

interest rate. now let's get to the bloomberg first word news with nejra cehic. after decisions from new zealand, switzerland, and the u.k., it is the turn of russia's central bank to announce policy today. the governor is expected to keep rates on hold. bloomberg sources say argentina's new president has picked up talks with several wall street banks for loans of up to $10 billion as he tries to shore up central-bank reserves. delayed then has decision of again on whether to allow another runway at heathrow airport. his government says more time is needed to carry out research. the move has been attacked by industry groups. willie walsh, the chief executive of iag, said it showed politics taking precedent over what is best for the economy. a petition to have donald trump

band from entering the u.k. has received nearly half a million signatures. any petition with more than 100,000 signatures is automatically considered for debate in parliament. that is your bloomberg first word news. manus: -- francine: thank you so much. news from the executive board member of the european central bank on the back of what we heard from mario draghi a couple weeks ago, extending qe. the market had misjudged what the ecb was going to do. now, they see the risk of a global low inflation. he's also saying the qe program adjustment was based on facts. whenever qe needs adjusting, he says, they can adjust it. is a good reminder that they

seem to be on top of it. he is basically justifying what we heard two weeks ago. euro-dollar, i think we have that for you. dollar strength is what we saw throughout the day. currently at 1.0960. now let's talk luxury. i'm pleased to say we are joined by theo fennell. great to have you on the program. we are two weeks from christmas. when you look at demand across your customers, when you look at currency prices, commodities, what worries you the most? the lack of people traveling to england to certain extent. i think people are nervous. i would like to think that what from thes cushioned realities of the world and what

we are dealing with is fantasy to a certain next and. that will always be with us. francine: your customer bases from all parts of the world. who are you trying to reach? theo: our customer is a type of person rather than a demographic or geographical demographic anyway. it is somebody who makes their own mind, once something very unusual. it is not fashion based. it is not too worried by what people think of them. somebody with a sense of humor, i hope. we are looking at some of the pieces. they do have a lot of sense of humor. they are very british. prices,level and these does the high pound make a difference to your customer? theo: not really. we are very reasonable, our prices. francine: shameless plug. [laughter] theo: there isn't too much

impact. i think if you are having something well made, whether it is a house, a suit, a pair of shoes, that is what you want, something that lasts forever. slight variations in , you don'tal prices care too much. francine: how has your business changed in the last 10 years? theo: when i started this business as a young, vibrant, enthusiastic -- francine: right now? theo: it wasn't a global brand. cartier had three stores owned by different people. it was a world of craftsmen, of individuality, but also people who knew about how things were made. rather like communism coming and

, this whole big brand thing has done the same thing. people who would have been buying things just for the sake of reassurance some years ago time.earned about taking it has come back again. craftsmanship has reemerged. we have young apprentices. we have people coming to visit all the time, which didn't happen 10 years ago. that is the change. francine: in terms of trends, it is more women buying for themselves? ?s it presents how much do you make at christmas? 50% of your sales? theo: it used to be. we have expanded in the rest of the year. the bizarre thing is that each christmas, i get terrified. but theree tiny tim, won't be food on the table.

the big change for us -- francine: why? people shop at the last minute? theo: people are not quite so nervous. as far as buying habits, women buying for themselves, we've always had a big women's self purchase clientele. we pandered to women, not me personally, but business pandered to women a lot more than most. those things have expanded. themselves isor .een as a sad thing to do we have empowered women in our clientele. francine: when a celebrity wears one of your pieces, do you see sales of similar pieces automatically go up? how difficult is it to quantify how celebrity where impacts your

brand? theo: with us, there's no doubt that in the early days, what is now called celebrity endorsement was a huge thing. we had wonderful famous people who wore our things. what has changed, i think, is the level of product that celebrities where that is affected by them wearing it has gotten lower and lower. many of our things are one-off. you can't make another. francine: what is the most unusual thing you've been asked to produce? theo: that i can talk about? francine: we are a family show. we make really unusual things all the time. amye just finished an winehouse memorial broach. work.made things that we made a ring that plays

"somewhere over the rainbow." not everything is as complex as that. francine: so my coanchor can get a bloomberg headquarters broach. theo: indeed. francine: thank you so much, theo fennell, creative director of luxury brand theo fennell. up next, miners have been in all kinds of pain, but who is winning? we find out with our chief energy correspondent, javier blas. ♪

francine: welcome back. we understand from scotland yard that there has been a police shootout, or at least police have shot a man during an intelligence-led operation in london. we will keep you updated with any new development. we have to keep on top of it. we will bring you the latest. for the moment, all we know is that a man has been shot in north london by a police-led intelligence operation according to scotland yard. let's get to the bloomberg business flash. yum! brands has had its bond rating cut to junk by standard and poor. share buybacks will likely cost increased debt.

they plan to return to shareholders. fosun shares have been suspended in hong kong after caixin magazine reported that the group 's chairman has gone missing. the company owns club med and has interest in property, pharmaceuticals, and commodities. chairman guo guangchang is china's richest man. third avenue management is blogging clients from pulling money from a $788 million mutual fund. the company put some assets in a trust that will sell them over time. third avenues ceo said it was necessary. standard chartered has raised about $5.1 billion after almost 97 present of shareholders bought stock. vote ofen as a confidence in the strategy to turn around the bank. yahoo!'s senior vice president is leading the company --

leaving the company. the news comes after ceo marissa mayer scrapped plans to spin off yahoos valuable stake in alibaba. for more on these stories and others, head to the bloomberg terminal and bloomberg.com. francine: thank you so much, nejra cehic. it has been quite the month for commodity producers. glencore and anglo american having to answer tough questions from investors. there are some industries. javier blas has more on this. and a fewreat chart winners. javier: anyone that is consuming commodities, whether it is manufacturers, steel and aluminum, refiners, airlines, truck companies, everyone is benefiting from a lower commodity prices. food companies, textile companies, good for the likes of

zahra for example. they benefit because basically the cost of production is much lower. javier: cost of production is coming down. think about an airline. lufthansa, the, cost of jet fuel is the second most importing cost the company faces after salaries from the staff. that is significantly down. there is a lag. most of these companies' contracts are a year in advance. the companies are only going to see the real benefit of lower commodity prices as we go into 2016. we are going to continue to see mining companies and oil producers suffering. we will see those companies that require a sending up and -- a significant amount of commodities for their businesses profiting. what is 2016 going to

bring? $2 trillion question, very difficult to predict. we just had the report on oil. opec will continue pumping. is that across the board? javier: more or less across the board. there is half of 2016, a reasonable time that we have some visibility to the market. nothing we see today suggests higher commodity prices. if anything, all the forces at the moment are pointing for more pressure to the downside and the chance for commodity prices in the first few weeks in 2016 is for downside prices. prices actually dropping significantly below current levels. thank you so much, javier blas. a deal delayed in paris. reports of a draft final

agreement from climate change talks to be pushed back to tomorrow as the first truly global deal to rein in pollution hits more speed bumps. caroline hyde has an update. i was looking at it this morning. there are so many stumbling blocks. caroline: exactly right, francine. they managed to whittle down from about 2000 areas of differentiating views on language down to just 50, but the 50 decisions still to be made on language, the 50 open brackets that have to be decided on, are the most tough. the deadline was for 6:00 p.m. french time, 5:00 p.m. gmt that we were meant to get the final draft of the first global agreement to cut climate change. it is pushed back until tomorrow morning because they are fighting over ambition and

money. ambitious elements are, for example, how do you monitor, how do you validate, the pledges that more than 180 countries have agreed upon? how do you ensure that they are living up to the pledges they make? and how do you strengthen them? eu, u.s., some of the island nations most at risk from rising sea levels, they are calling themselves the high ambition coalition. they want to see every five years the pledges strengthened to ensure that we meet that mark , so we keep temperatures below two degrees above industrial average is -- above preindustrial averages. china and india very opposed to that at the moment. it comes down to money. $100 billion per year is expected to go from developed to developing nations. should our nations contribute? should china contribute?

we understand that xi jinping and obama have been on the phone, trying to iron out these concerns. over all, that deadline has been pushed back. we need to see some sort of compromise. mood is: caroline, the that we will get something saturday morning? is there optimism in the room? caroline: there does seem to the. the foreign minister has been trying to show that he believes a deal will be done. i think the fact that we are seeing global leaders picking up the phone, talking to each other, showing some sort of compromise -- they really want to get this over the line. the optimism is draining out. when i was here on monday, i was speaking to the environmental protection agency had of the united states. she thought friday would be the day we saw a deal done. people have been here until 6:00 this morning, trying to get

their views across. people are sleeping above me. they come back at lunchtime to once again pull and a lighter. john kerry is here trying to ensure that we get an agreement from developing nations and those like india and china that feel they still have to finance electricity to their own people. francine: caroline, thank you so much. seems like a little more successful than what i covered in 2009. we are just also getting some breaking news. we were telling you about a police operation in north london. police are confirming that the operation is not related to terrorism. this will come as a relief to many. we are back in a couple of minutes, talking about politics in france. ♪

the terrorist attacks in paris along with the refugee crisis have helped the far right national front make gains in the first round of france's regional elections. will marine le pen's party get the breakthrough many predict? for more, let's get out to our reporter in our paris bureau. mark is here on set. greg, can marine le pen's national front breakthrough on sunday? >> it's looking maybe like they won't.

at the end of the first round of voting, the national front looked like they had a good chance of taking three regions. what's happened since then is the socialist party, in order to block the national front, has withdrawn its candidate in those three regions, basically leaving a two-horse race between the national front and nicolas sarkozy's party. what we don't know is whether socialist voters will go in great numbers to the polls to back sarkozy's party. if you are a socialist, you don't want to vote for sarkozy. some will to block the far right. the recent polls show that le pen may not win a single region on sunday. francine: greg, thank you for the update. mark, we look at donald trump and the rise of far right parties. almost trumping trump

here in europe and especially in france. >> we've been having this kind of discourse for some time. pen and front don't win the regions that it looks like they might, we shouldn't be comforted. they've done well in terms of gaining support. they will still have close to 30% of the vote. i think politicians have to look at that carefully, look at how they try and deal with it. they have to be careful about adopting the rhetoric of the front. tried to do that had right of the first round. it didn't work. it is extremely dangerous. very aggressively, frankly xena phobic president in hungary. in a country like france, you do not need that. the vote.to focus on

the thing the government can do something about is the economy. francine: greg, we have these regional elections, but then we also have the important presidential election. do we have polls for that former remote and? >> we do. in thethat she could win second round. the regional elections are tailor-made for her. there's very low turnout. there's a proportional system used. if she doesn't do well in the regional elections, and it --sn't bode well [indiscernible] francine: greg, thank you so much. for those listening on bloomberg radio, the first word is next. for our viewers, it is "surveillance." tom keene and i will be looking

at what the fed will do next week. we will look at what emerging markets will do on the back of it. we think we know what the fed will do, hike. emerging markets are on a trend lower. will that continue? ♪

francine: countdown to the fed. the dollar gains while emerging-market stocks slump for next week's pivotal fomc rate decision. mystery in shanghai. reports say that the billionaire chairman has gone missing. shares are halted. divisions remain for a climate change deal. there is still no agreement on financing pollution cuts and long-term goals. good morning, this is "surveillance." tom, we both have an iron ore chart. we are looking at the markets