scarlet: good monday afternoon. alix: here is what we are at this hour. partnerscapital shutting down. the latest junk fund to flounder in recent weeks. third avenue, all liquidating high-yield funds. scarlet: president obama meeting to strategize in the battle against the islamic state, expected to deliver a statement from the pentagon. we will have live coverage. alix: expectations are high that the fed will raise interest rates will look at some of the lesser-known fact that have a big influence on the decision. as always, we want to head to the market desk to get a snapshot of how things are started on this momentous week.

>> a huge momentous week wednesday. we are down across the board. let's bring those up and i will tell you the numbers. they are rising off of them in this noon hour. we're basically continuing to from last week. for a five days down. you can see the s&p 500 is down by about a half sent. of 1% toq down by 8/10 we lost nearly 4% on the s&p, it's worst week in a month. headed for thee worst december since 2002. this week, all eyes will be on the fed and janet yellen on wednesday in what is the most important fed meeting since the financial crisis. highly expected to raise interest rates for the first time in 9.5 years. you can dive into my bloomberg terminal. let's check out the fed funds futures. you want to see the w.a.r. p function on the terminal.

you basically want to take a the fed fund futures happening for december 15 right here. the probability we're looking at of a rise between 25 and 50 basis points right here. looking ahead, that will happen on wednesday and then we will see how investors react to that. the backup is the bond marketing anxiety we have seen. a lot of jitters are reverberating. exactly. concern is growing investors might not feel it to get the money out that investors wanted. most important way, it might be toascade effect according the global cio, who said the cascade could be something even bigger and we do see the meltdown happening in high-yield bond uts today. those are down on the order of 1% here on top of last friday,

where they fell about 2%, and that was their worst fall in four years. etf right here hit a 2009 levels. they are looking at the 10 year yield right now. up by six aces points, up two points, its biggest rise since december 3. alix: thank you. scarlet: let's head over to brandon who has more from the news desk. brendan: president obama will give a public update to a the islamic state. no considerable press to the country. the president begins speaking and we will bring it to you live right here on bloomberg tv. herary clinton solidified lead over bernie sanders in iowa. according to the new bloomberg politics register poll, the democratic front runner has a 48

to 39 lead over the vermont senator. in october survey, clinton led 42 to 47. meanwhile, ted cruz has jumped out to a 10 point lead in iowa. that is the first republican caucus on february 1. ted cruz leads donald trump 31-21%. ben carson almost an afterthought in third place at 13%. has been among voters without a college degree or cruise is leading in the category. the supreme court fighting with a lesbian mother fighting to visit her adopted children. the adoption is being declared invalid. the birth mother is contesting regular visits between the birth mother and partner. a new test for game lesbian rights after the historic ruling legalizing same-sex marriage. , sportsilliams illustrated sportsperson of the year. the tennis superstar is the first female athlete honored on

her own and more than 30 years. she won five titles this year including the australian, french open. that is a look at the first word news. you can get more on these and other breaking stories 24 hours a day bloomberg.com. thank you so much. top on managers amid a market route that forced funds run by 3rd avenue management, stone line capital partners, to wind down in the past week. scarlet: joining us to offer his perspective is the chief investment officer at winston advisers. are we at a crisis point? is carl icahn correct way says this is just the beginning of a meltdown? >> i do not think we are in a meltdown. in the downhey are leg of the fault rate cycle. up, about an

average, historically, for 2016. peak, away from the probably a few more years before we get to that. we're not on a meltdown, but the problems with the market are in the forefront and that is underlying the liquidations. >> a good point that you make. a ceo talked about market liquidity on bloomberg. listen to what he had to say. >> it is a change evolving in the market every day and people are learning how to adjust. a lot of winners and a lot of losers as a result of what happened. most important points about this is the opportunity created. exasperated --g exacerbated by what is going on. supercheap. clearly that did not work

out so well for him. >> it is important to emphasize the big difference between distress and high-yield debt, over 80% of merrill lynch index is nondistressed paper. default rate is literally zero. very rare for the market not identify at least a year ahead of time when the company is at high risk of default. the open-end mutual funds are, the 3rd exception of avenue fund, mostly concentrated in that nondistressed paper. to give you an idea, using the bloomberg portfolio, 75% of the market value of the 3rd avenue fund was in triple c or lower and not rated. charts and nothe surprising. a -27% year to date return versus -4% for the market as a halt. scarlet: how widespread is that?

any indication how many high-yield are adventuring in for the for your return? >> i will not say you do not have some funds but to give an idea, the wall street journal highlighted three funds that have had sizable outflows. one factor that could cause you to become liquid, a lot of redemptions. the concentrations or non-rated paper and those were rated 15 to 25%. a far cry from 75%. you really had an unusual situation. ,hen you talk about hedge funds that is not highly unlikely. you talk about redemption's leading closures. what did we wind up learning that did pile in the first moment of trouble?

>> they're going to be more conscientious and more aware of the asset mix in the portfolios. it is not as transparent when you talk about hedge funds. ,he central -- simple method 63% of that paper is at distress levels right now. if you have a high concentration, you know there will be a lot of paper that will be difficult to move if the fund gets into a position where they need to have redemptions. talk about the lack of liquidity within high-end credit. all those years of that in times of corporate cash sitting on the balance sheet, did it create a -- an illusion of liquidity that they did not have there? >> as far as secondary market liquidity, that has been on the decline since the end of the global financial crisis. is the rulen cited

that band proprietary trading. dealers never made money facilitating traits. they made money by buying things that were cheap because they had a good view of what was going on the market. bid,ey were able to make a that you needed to get out of, what did they do with it? the answer in the past when they went to the dumb bid. unfortunately, those were wiped out during the financial crisis and that is a serious problem. the dealers are constrained for that reason as well as regulation. alix: wouldn't that point to the fact we have much more unwinding? we do not have the banks observing the selling we are seeing? the banks never really absorbed it even in the good times. stations for that paper. in either had to stay where it was or go in to other investors hands. takewould sometimes positions and soften the blow, but ultimately, they had to move it and cannot even on the books indefinitely.

there is more to go. there are hedge funds that are who wille ordinarily look at this as an opportunity. scarlet: talk about the timing of the collapse of these certain funds. a hugely significant federal reserve's interest rate, after the year when people are looking at portfolios, and with oil prices collapsing all over again. all of those things created a perfect storm. a lot of uncertainty about the action. historically, initial fed hikes initially resulted in a government bonds on high-yield. they're logically ought not to be a lot of concerns but on the other hand, it is a very and thereenvironment is understandable uncertainty out there. eight to either saw

10%, negative or three or 4%. what cap are you in? forecasting was a chancy proposition. even in normal times, it is tough. outlook, investors look at 3.5% return over that. returnous cycle, a 16% as default rates were coming down. we are unfortunately on the wrong side of that. we continue to get the new bonds and total return will be less exciting. that is the reality of where we are. scarlet: good stuff. with the big fed decision just two days away, a shameless plug here. bloomberg will begin special coverage starting at 1:00 p.m. eastern time on television and radio. we will have extension -- extensive coverage with special

guests. we will carry janet yellen's said conference following the announcement. >> it is actually here. qualcomm study -- worst stock decline since the financial crisis. president obama expected to speak within the hour on his islamic state strategy. we will bring you live coverage. -- exclusive of interview you do not want to miss. ♪

alix: welcome back. it is time now for a look at some of the biggest business

stories in the news right now. expecting to cut 2800 jobs when it completes its takeover of rival bg group. of its combined workforce and, top of shell's previously .nnounced plan shell agreed to by the british rival for $78 billion in april. directv can avoid a class-action lawsuit over early termination fees and can force customers into private arbitration hearings instead. they ruled 6-3 that directv from banning together to sue the company. alix: the world premiere of the new star wars movie. of hollywood boulevard is closed for the showing of the force awakens in three theaters. and you have assigned seating, too.

i will wait until it is out on video. let's head over to the markets more.remy has watch it on your iphone. [laughter] ramy: some movers in the stock markets. first off, the gopro and the tech world. shares really are just plunging today. 16are at session lows, down and one third percent. morgan stanley downgrading the stocks to underweight from equal weight and cutting the price target nearly in half to it analysts expect high inventories will happen next year and that there is a slower opportunity in the consumer drone sector. 69% in augustn heading in today. another one to talk to you about is twitter. down three -- 3%.

this after the social network sent out e-mails about possibly getting hacked. it warned some members e-mails as well as phone data may have been the subject of an attack sponsored by another government. that followed similar threats made by others including alphabets as well as facebook. materials, down in dupont, following the merger announcement, nearly 4%. the reason for this is dan loeb, the founder of hedge fund, is -- hedge fund third point. he is calling for his removal. loeb is questioning whether the -- agreemented between the dow and third point. not commenting on what exactly else is in the letter. qualcomm is said to be leading against a breakup and

that it sees any kind of breakup as harming prowess. that has been going around for a few months now as they try to gain some kind of skill in the industry. scarlet: joining us now from san francisco to discuss is bloomberg's reporter ian king, who wrote the story. we talked about how activist investors have been pushing qualcomm to help businesses and what has been the case for not splitting it up? >> this is not a typical business unit. these two are tightly interlinked. the chip division generally -- generates the patents, which sells those licenses and generates a huge amount of cash, which pays amount -- for the massive amount it -- of r&d in the business. alix: friday, qualcomm changed its proxy process, keeping for three years before the board of directors. i wonder if that is all in

preparation to say, look, we want to keep this together. this makes better sense. : there is a lot of conjecture. that is not a conclusion to draw at this point. is facingualcomm certain challenges. an antitrust investigation which cost a lot of money. it is one of the reasons the stock has been lagging behind. my question to you, is that is a one-time deal? ian: it is not just china. it is korea and taiwan and the doj here in the u.s. everyone is looking at qualcomm. for another company, this would be, oh my god kind of situation, what will we do. but this is qualcomm. this company is being in the courts pretty much throughout existence. by and large, the lawyers tend to win, albeit at least the

headlines are horrible and short-term if not long-term damage to the stock because it undermines confidence in their future. they do tend to win. it depends on your horizon for looking at it. i spoke to an investor and he said they just need to split this off to make the regulators happy. quiet down tension out there. ian king, thank you for joining us. still ahead on bloomberg markets, we are awaiting comments from president obama p or you can see a live shot there. he will be talking about global terrorist threats by the islamic state. we will bring you that conference live. ♪

scarlet: welcome back. alix: president obama is visiting the pentagon today and will be talking about how he

plans to quell americans concerns about the growing domestic and global terror threats posed by the islamic state. parist: this follows the bombings last month and the shootings in california. what will it take to counter the growing threat of terrorism? when you got word of the president will be addressing the public at the pentagon, what were your thoughts in terms of how effective he can really be in prepared remarks today? >> i wanted to see what is the method he wants to send to the public basically with the entire war cabinet of the u.s. government, and to talk about the terror threats potentially coming for the country at hand. fact that white house officials, after announcing he is doing this meeting, said there will not be major announcements of changes to u.s. strategy. why is heon becomes having the meeting if there are no drastic changes? that

underscores how much of a dilemma he faces at the moment in the sense he does not want the u.s. to get dragged into a war, a ground war, in iraq and syria against the islamic state hear it at the same time, we are seeing recent terrorist attacks from paris to san bernardino. i think it is a fine balance of reassuring the public but at the same time, trying to figure out what are the ways to not get sucked in. alix: wasn't that what he was supposed to do last sunday to adjust the nation? wasn't that the point? .> that was his weekly address i think the recession was not as much. this meeting today is his first since july. the defense secretary in the war , thist in july underscores maybe to the public, he wants to say, we are doing

our best to make sure national security is maintained and we're listening to every single possible opportunity to see if there's something more that keeps us from going in and starting another war with the u.s. in the middle east. alix: thank you so much for joining us today. of course, we are still awaiting the president to come out and make a statement on the islamic state. much more when we come back after this break. ♪

alix: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, welcome back. i'm alix steel. scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. brendan greeley has more from the first word news desk.

an interview with yahoo! news, the president says, if i go on a visit, part of the deal is that i get to talk to everybody. i made clear in my conversations that we would continue to reach out to those who would want to broaden the scope for free expression inside cuba. john kerry is heading to russia for talks to end the civil war in syria. after spending last week at climate talks in paris, he will meet vladimir putin tomorrow. next week, owners of small drones will have to register the air to the faa, the cost, five dollars. there have been a number of incidents where drones flew too close to aircraft or in prohibited zones. closing arguments are expected today in the pretty great case. -- freddie gray case.

vigils are being held throughout connecticut today three years since the newtown massacre. it is the first time the anniversary has fallen on a school day. forkillings brought calls tougher gun laws, but since then, many states have loosened gun laws. that is a look at our first word news. you can get a look at these and other stories on the new bloomberg.com. scarlet: thank you. almost here day is and some economists are worried that after the the central bank could end up back where it started. alix: alan zentner talked about such lingering problems this morning. >> i'm not sure we can do victory laps around this because there are so many unknowns. the fed is getting on zero and then they say we will let you know after that. joining us now is someone

who is regarded as the top economic forecaster, david berson of nationwide. what do you think? you have to have the dovish rate hike left off, that is what the markets are wanting. >> i think that is what we will see. the fed will move 25 basis points on wednesday with their announcement, but i think the announcement will indicate any future rate hikes will be tempered and tied to what happened with the economic data. scarlet: can they publish that? many in the market question whether that is feasible in both directions, whether they can follow through with a shallow path, or whether they need to catch up quickly. >> i think they will need to catch up. probably two years from now we will see the fed has to tighten more quick and certainly than the market expects, and perhaps more quickly than the fed expects. 2015, the fed will be able to

stay on a path of modest gains. alix: does that mean they will have to lower their estimates to please the market? i don't think the fed needs to do anything in teams of murdering the market. the market will move toward where the fed will go. alix: that would not be dovish. for rate hikes a year seems to be a hawkish view, not a dovish one. for the fed, it is dovish because it is less tightening than we have seen in the past. yearnext year, maybe four after. that is much less than what the fed has done previously. that is fairly dovish from the fed's perspective. scarlet: this wednesday, the 25 basis point rate hike, pretty much everyone has priced in. what impact will that have on a different loans available in the country? which will be affected the most?

>> the impact will be bigger on short-term rates. basis point hike is very small, so the impact we are talking about our small across the board, but they will be bigger on short-term rates. things like auto loans. perhaps you will see an increase on the rate that you see in your savings, checking account, money market funds. the impact on long-term borrowing, particularly fixed rate mortgages, will be negligible next week. you take a look at the treasury spreads and we see a flatter curve. are we looking at a greenspan conundrum where the fed can dictate short-term interest rates, but on the long end, it will continue to fall as money moves into those long-term treasuries? >> i think we will see long-term rates stabilize, maybe go up a little bit. at least initially some flattening of the yield curve. financial markets need to be

convinced that the fed will continue to tighten and that inflation will go up. while i think the fed will continue to tighten, and the fed does as well, the market is not convinced. we have certainly not seen an increase in inflation. higher rates do mean for employers, will they be less able to add workers? initially, we are talking about very small increases in rates. even over the course of 2016, if we see a 100-basis point rise, that means short-term rates are still historically low. we will continue to see employers adding jobs and the numbers will continue to look pretty good in 2016. alix: deutsche bank had an interesting note on how the slowdown in the credit cycle is always associated with a slowdown in the labor market. we are seeing a slowdown in the credit cycle, so do you not see that relationship hold? >> it may hold to a small

extent, but we also do not typically see a slowdown in the hiring cycle until we have the yield curve pretty close to inverting. scarlet: you bring up a good point, credit. high-yield funds have caught everyone's attention, have raised tensions in the market. a lot of uncomfortable parallels to 2007. from where you sit, do you see these high-yield credit on closing of redemption opportunities for investors as a warning sign? >> when you invest in things with more risk, there is a chance the risk may blow up. highis happening with yield today is entirely different than what we saw in the mortgage market in 2007, 2008. that was so much bigger and so much broader and more pervasive in the investment community in , in that time, than high-yield is today.

we could seee worse things happen with high-yield, but the impact will be much less. alix: it seems like when we are seeing in the high-yield space is related to low energy prices, , and is a global issue sparks disinflation fears on a global basis. could that have longer-term repercussions as the fed will not be in to make its inflation target? inflation think low is a good thing for the u.s. economy and ultimately for the world economy. i understand it may be an indication of week worldwide demand, but also an indication of supply. think of the tax cut u.s. consumers and businesses are getting with lower oil prices. ultimately, that is positive on the u.s. economy. that may mean the fed titans by tens by less, but in not a bad onent,

for the macroeconomy. scarlet: there is no data out today and everyone is looking to wednesday anyways. it is pretty safe to say that any data will be short shifted. what is important that may not be getting the attention it deserves? >> people will be looking at what is happening with financial markets, volatility, what is happening with spreads, with perhaps the concern that the fed will see this data and not tighten. very unlikely that they do not. would have toets have severe problems over the next couple of days, but that is what people will be looking for. scarlet: the housing market is supposed to be one of the bright spots in the economy. you will be releasing your latest health of the housing market this week. what did you learn in putting together this assessment? >> the housing market is pretty good, in part, because it has not exploded in this expansion. it has grown modestly. across the country, most markets

look sustainable. they could go for another year reasonably well. there are some concerns, some parts of the country warehouse pricing gains have been very strong. the usual suspects, coastal carolina order, new york, d.c., also areas like denver and dallas. becoming less affordable. more worrisome are those associated with oil and other energy production and distribution, job markets are slowing dramatically. for the rest of the country, the housing market looks pretty good. alix: david, thank you for talking with us. don't miss our special coverage on wednesday, fed decision begins at 1:00 eastern. scarlet: still ahead, we are awaiting comment from the president. he is at the pentagon today talking about his islamic state strategy. we will bring you there live. ♪

scarlet: you are within -- watching bloomberg, i'm scarlet fu. alix: i'm alix steel. we have details about commodities with our interview with ross mcewing. south africa's president appoints his second finance minister in or days. is this enough to restore faith in the markets? alix: let's start with comments

from ross mcewing, speaking to bloomberg. explained the strategy regarding the biggest market story of 2015, the slide in oil prices. have done a lot of risk assessment around the oil industry and mineral industries. looked downstream at all of the service companies and what is the impact. scarlet: royal dutch shell plans to cut 2800 jobs once it takes over the bg group. pastaome on top of shell previously announced plans to drop contractor positions. turning to south africa, president jacob zuma appointed his finance minister, the second change in a week. hisfocus will be bringing country back into focus with the credit markets. >> we hear their concerns and

will take them into account. thatll demonstrate action -- on concerns that we have raised ourselves. we will have an opportunity to start shifting in the same direction but perhaps with greater speed and emphasis in the kind of direction we want to go in. scarlet: finally in china, a peer-to-peer lender is raising at $18n a valuation billion. the company recently changed its name to lu.com. time for the bloomberg quick take, where we provide context on some issues to keep you informed. today's topic is the climate change pac. 21 issued an ambitious deal with nations around the world and the biggest effort yet to curb climate change. actions requires

worldwide and a huge investment in reducing the output of greenhouse gases damaging the atmosphere. this year is on track to be the hottest on record and rapid industrialization means the world is likely unable to meet the goal of temperature gains of two degrees celsius. last major treaty was in 1997, the kyoto protocol, and that was ineffective because it did not include china and india. the biggest and third biggest polluters in the world. the last push for a deal was in copenhagen, 2009, which ended without legally binding target. but the private sector has stepped up, making strides to reduce emissions. companies and homeowners have been installing solar panels, using energy efficient lighting, and taking advantage of improved technologies and the cost of vulnerable technology has fallen. these investments and rising consumer awareness provide

momentum for a global deal. the dealchallenge for is spending. according to the international energy agency, it will require $13.5 trillion on renewables and deficiencies in 2030 and another $3 trillion needed to get the planet on the two degrees celsius track. after this deal in paris, policymakers must decide who will pay for the push into cleaner energy and how quickly to replace also fuels with renewable technologies. that is today's quick take. scarlet: thank you. for more stories, visit bloomberg.com. abigail over to doolittle at the nasdaq, where she is checking out gopro. gopro is one of the big stories the second half of the year. shares are down 70% on a slew of analyst downgrades. the stock is carving out a new record low after morgan stanley

join the bandwagon, cutting shears to underweight, reducing estimates, and reducing their price target to $12. they say the likelihood of high inventory persists into 2016 amid other issues. there is a very high short interest on the stop, 38%, making it seem reasonable that the stock could move down to the new price target fo. turning to another highly shorted stock -- scarlet: we have breaking news, the president is speaking at the pentagon. today, thebama: united states and our armed forces continue to lead the global coalition in our mission to destroy the terrorist group -- isil. as i outlined in my speech last weekend, our strategy is moving forward with a great sense of urgency on four fronts. hunting down and taking out these terrorists.

training and equipping iraqi anti--- syrian forces to fight ground.the stopping their operations by disrupting the recruiting, financing, and propaganda. finally, persistent diplomacy to end the syrian civil war so that everyone can focus on destroying isil. i had a chance to meet with my national security council as part of my regular effort to strengthen our efforts. i want to thank secretary carter, and everyone else for hosting us, as well as their leadership. we heard from general austin, who is leading the military campaign in the region, as well as the special operations forces commander. i want to provide all of you a brief update on our progress against the isil core in syria and iraq. heart, it willts make it harder for isil to publish propaganda to the rest of the world. the fall, even before

revolting attacks in paris and san bernardino, i ordered new actions to intensify our war against isil. these actions including more firepower and special operations forces, or will underweight. ms. continues to be a difficult said before.ave isil has dug in, including in they hides where behind civilians, using defenseless men, women, and children as human shields. even as we are relentless, we have to be smart. with surgical precision. at the same time, partners on the ground are rooting isil out david by neighborhood, block by block. that is what this campaign is doing. we are hitting isil harder than ever. coalition aircraft, fighters, bombers, and drones have been increasing the pace of their strikes. nearly 9000 as of today. last month, we dropped more bombs on isil targets than any

other month since the campaign started. we are also taking out leaders, commanders, and killers one by one. it's the spring, we have removed one of the top leaders, the second in command, a top online a man who brutally murdered americans and others and recently, the senior extortionist and the weapons trafficker.the list goes on. isil fromng after raqaa toonghold from libya. the point is, they cannot hide in our message is simple, you are next. every day, we destroyed as well forces, fighting positions, heavy weapons, bomb

making factories, compounds, and training camps. in many places, they had lost their freedom of maneuver because they know that if they mask their forces, we will wipe them out. this summer, isil has not had a single successful major offensive operation on the ground in either syria or iraq. in recent weeks, we have unleashed a new wave of strikes on their lifeline, their oil infrastructure, destroying hundreds of tankers, trucks, wells, and refineries, and will keep on hammering those. isil also continues to lose territory in iraq. isil had already lost across to cook province and integrate. recently, they lost a strategic highway. they lost an oil refinery. raid, whichg a rescued dozens of prisoners from isil, in which the master wheeler madeua great wheele

the ultimate sacrifice. iraqi forces are not fighting their way deeper into ramadi. they are working to encircle falluja and cut off routes into basel. these are urban areas where isil is in trenched. partners on the ground face a tough fight ahead. we will continue to back them up with the support that they need to ultimately clear isil from iraq. isil also continues to lose territory in syria. we continue to step up their support and supply to local forces. they are having success. after robbing isil in various towns, they have pushed them almost across the border region with turkey, and we are working with turkey to seal the rest.

isil has lost thousands of square miles of territory controlled in syria and will lose more. the special forces are ordered to syria in the end supporting the local forces, pushing south, tightening the squeeze on raqaa. meanwhile, more are to see isil as the dogs and thieves that they are. extortion and brutality to move -- continues people away from their effort. one refugees said that isil will end up all alone. all said, we recognize that progress these to keep coming faster. thene knows that more than syrians and iraqi living under isil's terror, as well as the families in san bernardino and parents, and those that are grieving the loss of their loved ones. just as the u.s. is doing more in this fight, as our allies in

europe and the united kingdom are doing more, so must others. that is why i have asked secretary carter to go to the middle east after this press briefing, to work with our coalition partners on securing more military contributions to this fight. on diplomatic front, secretary kerry beating russia tomorrow as we continue to work on the process to end the syrian civil war. thewhile here at home, department of homeland security is updating its alert system to help the american people stay vigilant and safe. as always, our extra ordinary men and women in uniform continue to put their lives on the line. in this campaign and around the world to keep the rest of us safe. this holiday season, many of our troops are once again far from their families, and as your commander in chief on behalf of the american people, we want to say thank you. we are grateful and we are proud of everything you do.

because of everything you do, the america that we love and cherish is leading the world in the fight, and because of you i'm confident that we will tell. thank you very much, everybody. that was the president speaking at the pentagon, talking about the islamic state and the united states strategy. back with us is sangwon yoon. alix: what did you hear that was different from what we heard two weeks ago when he addressed the president -- the nation in his weekly address? >> there was a little more detail, the rhetoric was stronger, we are hitting islamic state harder than ever. the leaders, we are coming after you next, watch out. nothing particularly new. it felt more like a rundown on everything that he heard from his national security council. particularly, nothing new on the strategy. he talks about how the u.s.-led coalition is continuing to strike while using special operation to take town by town,

eradicating islamic state soldiers. beyond that, fairly similar but more detailed. scarlet: he mentioned ashton carter would be going to the middle east as well. does he have more leeway to do what is necessary following this speech? speaksaid that he would -- seek more military commitment. is the that discussion u.s. trying to seek access to military bases overseas. that will be part of the discussion. scarlet: thank you. alix: coming up, we are speaking to ed morris about the continuing role in oil prices. ♪ the only way to get better is to challenge yourself,

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welcome to bloomberg markets. from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm scarlet fu. alix: i'm scarlet fu. stocks extending their lawson's losses. around the highs of the session at this point, coming back from their lows. the whitehe race for house was supposed to trumpet the money supertex, but that was the or donald trump enter the race. how he has been able to neutralize the big money. alix: norfolk southern derails canadian pacific's takeover, but they may not be giving up. in an interview, he says a proxy fight is likely. first, let's go to the market where ramy inocencio has been tracking the latest.

we were just saying how stocks extended their losses but they have since turned higher. ramy: the dow and s&p are was negative,sdaq but has now become positive. green across the board. volatility is really the team over the past week or so. 4% foray, the s&p fell the worst weekly performance in a month. today, we will see if we can hold onto these gains. markets are on track for the worst december since 2002. take a look at the volatility on the dow. green,ted out in the choppy waters. 11:30 p.m., we pushed down to session lows. after that, we kept going, now up to session highs. so what is causing all of this volatility? seven sectors for the s&p but

downeeing just material 1%. nine out of 10 sectors are now in the green. andbiggest weight is dow dupont. down more than 3%. the dow ceo toor be removed. alix: oil has been seeing some big trades. one of my favorite quotations was that things have been totally licorice -- ludicrous. today, it is kind of ludicrous. 6:00 a.m., you can see a slump. we lost 2% to the price of nymex crude. we crossed the $35 mark, and

around,didn't just turn and now we are back up about 36 darlow's -- dollars. we are positive by .6%. that said, we are still at lowe's not seen since february 2009. oil has lost a third of its value this year. looks like the oil in prices is probably responsible for some of that turnaround in the s&p 500 and down. brendan greeley has more from the first news were desk. allied forces are hitting the islamic state harder than ever. president obama went to the pentagon to meet with his national security team. he says the group's leaders cannot hide and that they are losing territory. >> our strategy is moving forward with a great sense of urgency on four runs, hunting down into cap iteris, training and equipping iraqi and syrian forces to fight isil on the

stopping operations by disrupting the recruiting, financing, and propaganda, and finally, persistent diplomacy to end the civil wars so that everyone can focus on destroying isil. brendan: the meeting is part of a public relations drive to ease worries about domestic terrorism ahead of the holidays. the president will travel to the national counterterrorism center on saturday. kept officials from probing the profiles of the south africans. that may have been while officials failed to notice the extent of media messages about margin by california terrorist tashfeen malik. hillary clinton has solidified her lead over bernie sanders in iowa, according to the new des moines register poll. in an october survey, clinton

led 42 to 37, although that included a possible run of joe biden. meanwhile, ted cruz has jumped onto a 10-point lead ahead of the caucuses in iowa. he now leaned donald trump 31% to 21%. ben carson is in third with 13%. strength had been among voters without a college degree. now ted cruz is leading that category. banned. that is the word from the commissioner of baseball on pete rose. the all-time hit king will remain barred from the sport and therefore ineligible for induction into the hall of fame. that was the first word on charlie hustle. for more stories, you can go to bloomberg.com. thank you.

the countdown to said laptop is well underway and investors are contending with crude below $36 a barrel and the longest streak in equities since august. alix: what happens to stop when you have monetary tightening and oil prices low? with us.in adams there is a chart that looks correlation between oil and stocks. oil has not been a beta of trade. they have moves inversely but right now the closer you get to one, the stronger the correlation is. what does this to to the market longer-term? >> overlies long-term, they are closely correlated. right now, there is a good reason for this. oil has been the primary drive on earnings. we are in an environment where the fed is totally pulling in the reins on extraordinarily easy policy. the result is valuations in the equity market are no longer

floating higher creating an increase in stock prices. instead, we are dependent on earnings to drive optimism and stocks higher. earnings have been flat because oil prices are down. there is a reason why oil and stocks are correlated, because of the earnings stream. in our view, it is highly unlikely that stocks can press forward in his bull market until we get some stability. you don't need oil prices to rise, and that is where your correlation rex down. when prices are stable, and release pressure. earnings will rise in other sectors, but until oil prices highly unlikely that we see that recovery in stock prices. scarlet: does that mean anything for the forecast of the s&p in 2015? it is a guess until we know the price of oil is? at 22 -- i am at $$22.45,

but that is contingent on prices stabilizing. over the last week, we took another leg lower. that is primarily weighing on stock prices and certain the sentiment in the high-yield market beating through to the equity market. we are somewhat dependent on oil prices. we are equally dependent on what the fed does. if the fed moves faster than expected, that could have pressure. if they take longer to move, it could have implications for the earnings stream. i think that is what 2016 will be about. 2015 was the year for oil prices and currencies to provide some volatility to the markets. commodities and currencies had a big head start in adjusting to tighter fed policy. the right landscape is just getting moving. center ofre the volatility will be this year and the year ahead. scarlet: speaking of volatility, one way to visualize it is with the vix.

butf late, it has climbed, we have recently turned lower. around 24. we are well below the levels in august. certainly below the levels we saw -- below september and august levels. , we are just term slightly elevated from the long-term average of 20. does the fact that this is rising at a slower trajectory compared to august mean that there is more stress in the system? you do not want to see that slow grind higher. you want to see a spike and then go higher again. >> it simply means there is no panic. tends to spike in panic situations, more a measure of panic that market conditions, in my view. i am not tremendously worried about the mix specifically. what i am worried about is that there is some evidence of

turmoil in the bond market. without a stable and steady in the bondability market, equities tend to struggle. we need to have bond market stability also coincide with stability in the oil price, to allow investors to flood into the equity market once again and drive prices higher. alix: i like when you brought up with the bond market because companies have use that to fund buybacks, which has had a huge impact on the markets, supporting it when earnings has been so poor. take a look in the terminal. this is the goldman sachs buyback index, it has rolled over. how can companies keep doing this when the credit market is seizing up? a big game forto us in 2016, how rates are likely to become the center of volatility on the index. one of the ways that they will is through cost of debt rising. we think a big shift in investor portfolios is underway now and continuing into the year ahead

will be toward call the companies where the cost to debt is not rising as rapidly, or are less dependent on debt funding to drive equities higher. like lower lever companies with lower cost of debt, higher-quality companies. that is a theme for the year ahead. i think that is what is happening as we start to transition for tighter rates. we will pay attention to the quality of earnings, we will pay attention to balance sheets, and that-funded equity rising. i think you have to be more careful. the nickname for the year is the receding tide. fedreal consequence of policy is some separation between winners and losers in the equity market. that has been a part of 2015, going into 2016. scarlet: we will see who is winning naked. alix: thank you, gina martin adams. on wednesday. full coverage of the fed

decision day starting at 1:00 eastern. scarlet: coming up, the former development executive from webmd and comcast is bringing a new product. have campaign super pac's lost their influence? why are the groups hesitating to spend? scarlet: negotiations continue over railroad mergers. norfolk southern rejecting southern pacific. is a proxy on the horizon. ? ♪

alix: welcome back to bloomberg markets. i'm alix steel. scarlet: i'm scarlet fu.

it's time to take a look at the business news. fairchild's as an unsolicited takeover offer will not be better than one already on the table. the new bid comes from china resources semiconductor and last month, iom semiconductor agreed to buy fairchild for $2.4 billion. scarlet: there is a big deal in consumer products today. rubbermaid has agreed to buy jarden corporation. there are strong portfolios with leading brands that are number one or number two in their categories. the combined brand portfolio is quite concentrated with the top 30 brands delivering 80% of toenue, which will enable us invest easily. scarlet: newell rubbermaid makes household goods. i cannot get my words out today. the supreme court says

directv can avoid a class action lawsuit in call-up on over early termination and can force companies -- customers into private arbitration hearings instead. you can always get more business news at bloomberg.com. scarlet: this wednesday is not only a big day for the fed but also howard stern. his contract with sirius xm will end, but his next move is still unknown. the ceo and president of liberty media spoke to stephanie ruhle last week on the appeal of the seti like radio company and the stars future. >> there are a lot of reasons why people subscribe to serious xm. people love the music, the cure ration, but people love the ease commercials,ack of and then they love exclusive

content like howard stern. stephanie: is he staying? >> nothing to announce today, but we are introduced to have been. like nfl,her content major league baseball, even bloomberg radio. howard stern is 62 years old and remains one of the top earners in radio. his contract cost about $80 million each year. alix: but i have to say, siruis about 1.4 billion in profit, but definitely have to pay out a lot. aarlet: ramy inocencio has check on individual company movers. aty: i am taking a look apple because of a slew of analyst calls out today. apple is seeing the biggest impact among s&p stocks today. analysts are finding problems with the company. shares are down 1.5%, although off of session lows. shares are all in to the lowest

level in two months, down 6% in december. inlysts are saying, weakness their supply chain to make the iphone 6s. cut fors chart has been the phone. morgan stanley cutting their estimates for the phone shipments in december also, saying sales could have their first ever decline, a possible drop of 5.7%. barclays is also bearish, cutting its price target on the shares to $150. down about five dollars. ahead, a newl approach to selling men's underwear in order to attract a younger demographic. ♪

scarlet: welcome back to bloomberg markets. i'm scarlet fu. alix: i'm alix steel.

meant to saynce goodbye to the generic three-pack of underwear by utilizing unique market strategies like podcasts and social media influencers. the company is hoping to make purchasing men's basics anything but a sick. scarlet: let's go to carol massar. we welcome everyone to bloomberg tv, this is the bloomberg advantage on bloomberg radio. we want to talk about the men's underwear market. as i mentioned to the audience, a $3 billion market. berger is the cofounder and chief executive officer at mack weldon. i understand you are on a mission here. >> absolutely, this is an important product category. it's the first thing we put on every morning and a lasting we take off at night. carol: it is a crowded market, though. is calling more attention to something we believe is really important.

owny company has its particular angle on things and we feel strongly in our position as part of innovators, as something that makes us unique from everyone else out there. y: who are the leading players in this market? >> mass-market players like fruit of the loom, jockey, control a lion's share of the market. our category, mass premium price point is more of a determined store brand, with calvin klein being the market leader. why do you think the men's market needed another player? things. the first is the way the products are sold. when you sell something to a third-party retailer, you are constantly having to create new and different products. this is a category where guys want consistency. the fact that we are direct to consumer, primarily e-commerce brands, facilitate something the market has not had, which is a

brand that can focus on consistency and innovation, rather than creating the next new thing. the second thing is that the product level. we spent a lot of time focusing, obsessing over the details. whether that is the franks we use, the type of stitching and construction, to focus on products and design that are meant to do the job. cory: this premium stuff, known sixpacks, their market strategy is set up in black and white photography. that has to be expensive in terms of the marketing cost. what are you doing to try to do something different? the bigreat thing about brands is they are able to create a lifestyle. for me, as the founder of the brand, none of that ever resonated with me. what got me excited about brands were things like, how are you going to make my life easier, either in terms of shopping, but also the product level, what are you doing that is unique?

because we are direct to consumer, we can have a direct conversation with the consumer. brandsklein and other rely on mass media campaigns to tell more of a lifestyle story. we do a lot through social media, e-mail, pr, more direct initiatives that target our customer base in places like facebook, instagram, where they are spending lots of time. most: what is the productive marketing, social media, people contacting you to reach out, what is the most effective method? word-of-mouth. nothing better than a happy customer from other customers. you would be shocked. we started the brand, we thought, our guys going to talk to each other about this? everywhere we go, it seems like everyone is having a conversation, showing their waistband, talking about socks. .ord-of-mouth is best in terms of a paid channel barrier advertising, google and

facebook are great for us because we can directly attribute the advertising we spend to the customers we are generating off of that. we focus on that specifically. cory: this raises the question with viral marketing. with women's underwear, victoria's secret, they do such a fantastic job getting buzz around what they do, getting viral buzz. they do something little, it seems to go a long way or then. do you look at victoria's secret as kind of a model for you? an incredible brand the way that they have marketed themselves, the unique and they have done with the runway shows, really fantastic. are males,customer 24 to 35 years old, urban, affluent guys. guys love technology. they love performance. they love brands that focus and emphasize on those things. we spend a lot of time on innovation and we use that as a

means to engage our customer. one specific example of that was, year and a half ago, we came up with a premium line called mack weldon silver, where we are reading the fiber with silver and can't and infusing that into the products. carol: revenues are supposed to be of 80% this year, argue profitable? >> not yet, but we believe it is very achievable. carol: brian berger, ceo of mack weldon. back to you on television. scarlet: thank you. holiday gift ideas anyone? alix: i already bought my husband some underwear. the latest poll results out of iowa. we will look at the rise of ted cruz. ♪ . . the only way to get better is to challenge yourself,

and that's what we're doing at xfinity. we are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. and this includes our commitment to being on time. every time. that's why if we're ever late for an appointment, we'll credit your account $20. it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. alix: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, welcome back. scarlet: let's get to

bloomberg's first word news with brendan greeley. rendon: president obama says we are hitting islamic state harder than ever. he went to the pentagon to meet with his team today and said islamic state's leaders cannot hide and is losing territory. president obama: this continues to be a difficult fight. i so is hiding behind civilians in urban areas, using defenseless men, women and children as human shields. even as we are relentless, we have to be smart, targeting i sold -- targetingisil surgically. part of a plan to ease worries about domestic terrorism over the holidays. john kerry is heading to russia for talks in aims to end the civil war in syria. after spending last week in climate talks, he will meet with vladimir putin tomorrow. starting next week, owners of

small drones will have to register the unmanned aircraft with the faa. there have been a number of incidents were drones flew close to traditional aircraft or in prohibited zones. two thirds ofws the voters in new york state think fantasy sports games are a form of illegal gambling. the attorney general has sued to companies and a lower court ordered the sites to shut down in new york. lower court stayed that order. vigils are being held today throughout connecticut, three years to the day of the new town massacre. it is the first day the anniversary has fallen on a school day. many states have loosened gun laws since then. you can get more on these and other breaking stories 24 hours a day at the new bloomberg.com. after months of

speculation, we will find out wednesday if the fed will raise rates for the first time since 2006. janet yellen and fed officials have been hinting at a rate hike as a gain more confidence in the economy. but what are the mechanics behind the rate increase? the actual idea of how you increase the rate right now is complicated. since thever financial crisis, it has become incredibly complicated. a lot of people wonder if the fed can raise rates. shows youchart that where we have been trading. it's right about in the middle of the range. how do you get that up? the fed will raise the target 25-15 aces points.

how do you move the fed funds rate? you will have to have two rate instead of one and not target the fed funds rate anymore because they do not borrow to fill excess reserves anymore. the next chart shows the green band is the range. will be the interest on overnight reserves parked at the fed. that will be the ceiling. will be reverse repose the fed can do. that should set a floor on the rate and the fed can then hope it rises into the middle of that. the reason why it helps to set a floor is no one lends out money to a the overnight repo rate is. michael: you would think, but there are some people who might

do that. reserves earn that rate on excess reserves, so they have been lending and out in the overnight markets. that is one reason you see some of the squiggles down that pushes it downward on the rate. there's a possibility the fed isn't going to be able to get the rate up, not even 25 aces points and that could cause consternation. scarlet: what is the confidence the fed can handle the mechanics of this rate increase and train the excess liquidity from the system? general, they are confident they can do it. they have been testing it for some time and we have seen the money markets start to price in the price increase. the commercial paper rates have started to go up significantly. they have moved to push rates

higher. it looks like they have been holding off. when they had to move higher and then go back when the fed did not act -- it looks like maybe the december payroll reports convince them that it is ok to go ahead. what happens when they have to do this full-time every day? saysnalyst from barclays will there be a failure to launch? it certainly remains a possibility. you talk about the interest in excess reserves -- i get how they set the floor, but how does it set a cap? michael: you are not going to lend money out at a cheaper rate than you can earn it at the fed. it at the you have fed, you will be making the highest and trade possible.

there is one rate that may come in and they could do something like a cd for banks that could .ie up money for longer times if a bank is willing to do that, you get interest on the excess rate reserves. scarlet: people are trying to get returns elsewhere and putting that money to work. do we now expect risk aversion? already in see that a high interest markets. oil prices are doing it to the repricing -- the bonds people are holding are going down in value. the question is how far have people gone out on the curve? not 2007 or 2008 because the high-yield market will be

higher and there will be some pain ahead. i was literally watching a youtube video on the chicago fed on this all weekend. scarlet: that is what alix steel does on her weekends. alix: my husband fell asleep. scarlet: be sure to tune in for special coverage of the fed decision. we begin at 1:00 tm eastern time on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. alix: ted cruz has pulled to a trump,t lead over donald putting him in the prime position to win the first of a nation republican caucus on february 1. isrlet: joining us with more our bloomberg politics reporter. create thed cruz situation where he now leads donald trump i 10 points. been takingruz has

the slow and steady reports -- slow and steady course. he just recently got some big endorsements in the states. evangelical leaders have come out and back ted cruz. this is sweat and blood and hard work. he has been putting a lot of time there. -- the: it's interesting people who like donald trump like him because he's not your typical politician but ted cruz is. runninge is but he is on his record in the senate as a rabble-rouser, as a maverick, as somebody who has obstructed, but who has challenged the republican establishment. .hat is his credential he says i'm donald trump who knows how to work in congress or stop congress from doing what you don't want them to do.

is ted cruz taking votes away from donald trump? stephen: most of those votes cap -- be coming from coming from ben carson. when you look at it, he's in a good position for two reasons. when you look at donald trump's votes, and we asked all of these like us caucus-goers who the second choice would be, a significant amount would go to ted cruz of donald trump were not in the race. when he asked the same question of ted cruz supporters, not as many go to donald trump. it gets split up more and that's a good thing. for ted cruz, obviously. you see ted cruz doing better in issue areas. the carson-trump divide -- there were the hard issues that trump was better on terrorism and a better commander-in-chief and

then you had donald trump who was more like he cares about me, he shares my values. is not leading in all of them, but the ones where he is leading our own little more mixed. they say he has a better temperament and would be a better commander-in-chief than trump. voters say he would work better with congress, ironically enough. these are a little more mixed message and show some strength for cruise. scarlet: nevertheless, donald trump has changed the landscape the republican campaign. they have kind of been neutralized. narrativeere was this that the super pac's could be an extension of the campaign and there were big operatives leaving campaigns and while they could not coordinated, they could raise this money and work

as a de facto campaign from the outside. we have not seen that work out very well. in some cases, it has worked well, like for john kasich. his super pac has raised so much money but they really have not helped his numbers. bush ozof seeing jeb numbers go up, we have seen the numbers go down. this raises the question of how effective are these super pac's? they are watching the landscape saying maybe we should not spend all of our money right now and with donald trump sucking up all thingsgen, we should use more strategically. mind latee up their in the process and maybe we should wait until voters can think about who they want to be president.

we have breaking news -- mgm says it is acquiring full control of united artist media group. they have a headline saying mark burnett will be running the mgm television group. thes the guy in charge of survivor reality show. in "thee involved apprentice" and "celebrity apprentice" alix: we are getting some headlines that the channel will remain a separate entity even as mgm will absorb the united artists media group and to its company. says they will swap a 23% stake, so lots of interesting headlines coming across here. scarlet: we will be right back with more bloomberg television.

scarlet: welcome back to bloomberg markets. bloomberg for the business flash, a look at some of the biggest stories in business right now. royal dutch shell expects to cut 28 hundred jobs once it completes its takeover of bg group. this comes on top of their previously announced plan to drop 7500 staff and contracting positions. companyreed to buy the in april. alix: apple music is getting the best holiday gift from taylor swift. tours releasing her world concert piano exclusively on apple music. it is free for streaming for

apple music users. apple music is the only where herplatform best-selling "1989" album is available. scarlet: you can get more on that story and other business news on bloomberg.com. has: now ramy aniston seo -- amy aniston seo has : basically there's a deal for $13 million. -- will andrs will rubbermaid is down 10%, which is usually the case of the buyer. jarden corporation is up 5.9%. valued aty will be about $16 billion. in materials, dow and dupont are both falling today after last

week's merger news. loeb, founder of the hedge fund does support the deal. he is questioning whether the to be the expiry of the deal. sphere,the tech fairchild semiconductor has thaned $20 is better $21.70. the firm is staying with the lower price or share bid rather than from an unnamed suitor. 2.76%.ld down been ang that may have concern, the higher bit is said to be from a consortium of chinese biters -- chinese buyers. should near energy is down on the order of 3.5%.

the company ousted its cofounder and ceo just two years after he became the highest paid chief executive in the country. some investors are not so happy. a former morgan stanley banker will take over on an interim basis, but the ouster was backed largesticahn, the shareholder. this story blew my mind when i saw the headlines last night. scarlet: canadian pacific railway has some room to restructure its offer for norfolk southern. alix: nor folk, which rejected the proposal has engaged in negotiation. --erik: you guys are working as a team?

guest: that is more pershing square's decision. i'm not privy to their strategy and i don't know their financial positions. certainly any activists that would push shareholders to understand the transaction and get serious would help. erik: do you think it will take a proxy fight to make this deal friendly? ousting some or all of the board to get norfolk southern to agree to your terms? guest: it sure seems like it. erik: a proxy fight is required? tost: when people won't talk you and there's no indication they are going to talk and no indication the price helps and then they start a dialogue with arlington northern who has jumped in there, i don't see it

happening any other way. scarlet: joining us now from toronto is powered tv canada anchor. entering theman conversation, does this seem like the same playbook that was used when hunter harrison was installed as ceo? it sure does. when hunter harrison was saying it sure seems like we are going to have a proxy battle, it sure seems like that is the road we are going down, it is absolutely the playbook we saw unfolding back in 2012. first of all, bill ackman saying this is a railroad with incredibly low efficiency, attacking at that way. similar and that is the way they looked at it and what they did was have a proxy battle, install a new board, an lastter harrison in

year when he was talking about checkinghey were just it out to see whether that would work, it was decided against that. haveso said that it would to be a friendly situation, so this is a bit of a playbook. we have any idea how long they have to make a deal? is there any kind of time crunch? guest: the way that it is structured is this is something -- the proposal is you put cp rail into a voting trust and tot frees up hunter harrison become ceo of norfolk southern as things work through the regulators and they have to prove this is good for competition and they have all kinds of quit pro-quote is that they have to tick off to get the deal through on the regulatory side.

thank you so much. coming up next, it's shaping up to be a bad year for high-yield credit. we have some charts to break it down for you. ♪

alix: welcome back to bloomberg markets. asrlet: 20 15 is shaping up potentially the worst non-recession year for high-yield bonds according to a note from goldman sachs. alix: barring a rebound in the next two weeks, it would be the first negative return for high-yield outside of recession years. -- youlook at this chart can see high-yield inching into negative territory in 2007, 1989 -- when you had recessions. now we are -3.5% if you look at

the full year, yet there is no recession. the actual risk is management will use debt to fund buybacks and that is going to be the issue for the markets, not necessarily a recession. scarlet: the thing with the negative returns is because of certain sectors -- oil and exploration and reduction. they are really dragging things lower. which werehart shows the worst for high-yield since october. 32 beats have been due to emp's in metal and mining. alix: it is fascinating. it's also telecom. happens ifue is what you have some refinancing do? that's where we could see some problems. goldman points out high-yield

debt market is any much ok. it winds up giving them a lot of wiggle room. this is something we will see continue to play out this year and early next year. coming up in the next hour, let's -- we will speak to 'se head of citigroup aboutity research scarlet: the route in resources. and tune in wednesday for special coverage of the fomc division. ♪

>> its 2 p.m. in new york and 3:00 p.m. and hong kong. welcome to bloomberg markets.

-- 3:00 a.m. and hong kong. from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm david guerra. incks struggling to stay positive territory. weakness fraying investor nerves and all of that ahead of the fed 's decision on wednesday. a landmark deal reached to fight global warming. does it go far enough? we will ask president obama's chief science adviser. and find out how spring al assets wants to stay in the company. ramy: we have been of and down, but i hesitate to turn around because i'm going to be surprised once i see this. much flat whenty we look at the dow but we see a roller coaster ride ever since