tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg December 14, 2015 3:00pm-4:01pm EST
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brendan: good market day to you. this is what we're watching. u.s. stocks struggle for direction. casting a weary eye on the federal reserve, which will decide the future of industry on wednesday. high-yield credit. was it his capital partners is shutting down. what is going on? in oil prices find more in the latest market? it will boost its production, and we are one hour from the close of trading. let's head to the market desk where rami has the latest. where are we now? look at thetime a markets, i am not sure. we will take a look right now. it has been up-and-down volatile for the whole day.
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right now with the s&p, it is up marginally up .1%. across the board, markets are in positive territory now. volatility has been the overarching theme today. tour of the entire day, we did slide through the morning . i will continue on and talk function here. on 10e seen sector help sectors for the s&p. let's take a look at this. materials are the biggest loser. financials down a quarter of 1%. earlier today, we saw as many as seven sectors in the red. we have been seeing this pretty much going on throughout the day. one thing i want to talk about is at least with materials,
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dallas and dupont are falling after last week's merger announcement. download being the big catalyst there. he supports the deal but does not support the dow ceo or take a look at the reaction. dupont and the dow down by more and logan is calling for his removal. he is questioned whether the deal is rushed to be conspiring of an agreement between the dow and third point. we had a 35 panel this morning. but things have been moving all over. ramy: there has been movement all over paris much echoing what is happening with equities. hyer, 2%. you can see right here, this egg leg down is a little bit of a fake out at 6:00 a.m. 2.5% to we order of crossed of a $35 month -- crossed off a $35 mark.
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and $.34. up at $36 yet.e not out of the woods by far, we're at a low not seen since 2009 and you today, we have lost about one third of the price of oil. brendan: somewhere in to buy, tom keene is rolling over. it was 34 handle. thanks. we will go to the bloomberg first word news desk with carol massar. thank you. ol: president obama said the military forces are hitting the islamic state more than ever. at the pentagon to meet with -- to meet with the national security team. the islamic state cannot hide and it is losing territory. president obama: our strategy is moving forward with urgency on four fronts. hunting down and taking out the terrorist, training and equipping iraqi forces to fight
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isil on the ground. stopping isil's operations by disrupting financing and propaganda, and persistent diplomacy to end the syrian civil war so everyone can focus on destroying isil. >> the rear meeting is part of a public relations drive. the abrasions in the first trial of the baltimore police officer charged in the arrest and death of freddie gray. it went to jury this afternoon after closing arguments. charged with manslaughter, reckless endangerment, and misconduct. he faces about 25 years. a u.s. policy reportedly kept profiles -- these of of applicants. messages.social media she was admitted into the u.s. last year on her fiance's visa.
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ted cruz is leading by double digits in iowa. he is backed by 30 -- 31% of republicans. after donald trump, out 21% and ben carson at 13%. among democrats, hillary clinton has a nine point lead over bernie sanders in iowa. lettermp has released a about his medical history. his doctor says trump's health is excellent. in the letter, the doctor says, will beted, mr. trump the healthiest individual ever elected to the presidency. " these andt more on other breaking stories 24 hours a day on bloomberg.com. back to you. brendan: all eyes on the fed pure and wednesday, the rate
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decision comes as fed funds futures chose the odds of a rate increase this week, 76%. joining us now with even more, krishna memani. let's start with you. is it 76 right now when you look at the analysis of fed funds futures? 78 this morning. the hike it self is in the bag. krishna: absolutely. if the fed is to retain any credibility, they have to. there is no choice. brendan: i was think the phrase credibility is that the fed is found to do what i wanted to do. >> that is a common complaint. i think what we will see, this is certainly not tightening policy, but this is the signal of an end of an era and the start of a much more normal pattern of behavior in the economy.
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what are you looking for in a press conference? what sort of hints are you looking for to determine what happens over the course of the next year? to be to keeps the growth of the picture clearer and going. for that, they have to be a bit more gradual than what they may do normally. they would want to communicate things ared that tightening, that future them tos are still for be very methodical and delivered an gradual. david: -- brendan: are we going to see a change this week in basic principles that we used to take for granted? inl we see a farther drop the rate of unemployment? i think the economy has improved to the level that it is really not about whether growth is good or not or about inflation being high enough or not.
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it is more about wide eu have to tighten policy right now? when there are so many risks still. is doing quitey well. it is more about what is going on overseas, in emerging markets and china and europe and japan. that is where we have to focus. things,ocus on those things in the u.s. will remain relatively robust. not be the driver of any doubts in the marketplace. it is about overseas happening. is this the "oh for pete's sake" hike? >> yes, breathing a sigh of relief that we can get the initial lift off out of the way, stop the discussion, no more complaining about kicking the can, and now they can redirect the conversation to the post list -- liftoff policy path. i do not know if the fed will
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fully walk expectations back as far as they ultimately go, but they will downgrade expectations. effectively, they are monetarying conditions, tightening a rate hike by signaling a slower pace point,s are to krishna's with the forecast, they may be able to download longer estimates, but they cannot tinker too much with the forecast in 2016 and 2017 because if they are downgrading forecasts, they should not be raising rates in the first place. krishna: the fed has a bit of a challenge. they want to be gradual. they do not mesh very well together. that will be a challenge for them from a communications standpoint. the biggest challenge is signaling when they will get the rate hike. the markets will signal give us a hint of what is coming.
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economies are expecting that to happen in march. >> they keep pushing back the inflation returning to the target 2%. will this happen? the most recent projection had it happening in 2017. i cannot figure out what would drive it? not think we get to 2% any soon. over the next few years. the pressures on the inflationary front are so that we will not accomplish it. it is probably the biggest reason why the fed should not be doing anything. inflation is unlikely to come back. if inflation comes back, it will be a really high-class problem. >> there are pockets of inflation running at 2% or
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better. we are starting to see non-rent service prices going up. if we continue to see a stronger dollar, prices will continue to sink. oil making new lows is another significant downdraft. , thank: krishna memani you. i'm afraid you are a voice in the wilderness. we will see what happens wednesday. krishna: they are doing it and i still think they should not. brendan: thank you so much. carl riccadonna, the author of the fed spectrometer. take a look at it when you get a chance. an important programming note with the fed decision just two wednesday at 1:00 p.m. eastern on bloomberg television and radio, i will be in d.c. locked up here and we will have extended coverage with a special guest and also cover janet yellen's press conference following the announcement. coming up in the next 20 minutes, the finance minister in south africa on the defensive.
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cash and stocks. strong portfolios of leading brands that are number one and number two in the category. portfolio isbrand quite concentrated, with the top 30 brands delivering about 80% allows usenue which to focus investment quite easily. they have brands such as yankee candles. a deal will be shot down by regulators. in an exclusive interview with erik schatzker, he sat down with canadian specific -- canadian pacific ceo harrison on bloomberg. >> we are not in love with the deal. things can go wrong with that spirit we cannot lose sight of who we are representing here. and that -- that is the shareholders. brendan: he called the new offer grossly inadequate. samsung is revealing to the supreme court a $399 million
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judgment at the look of apple iphones. courtst time the supreme heard cases on the patent, it was the late 1800s. a more always get business news at bloomberg.com. south african rand is on the last weekendmbling rally today. change in less than a week for finance minister. joining us from san francisco with more is president and chief investment officer axel merk. it sounds like the issue has always been trust in the -- instincts.nce axel: we do not know where the country will be 10 years from
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now. changing your finance mr. twice in a week, three finance ministers in a week, it is not exactly helpful. if one of the things we are hearing from the national congress is they are hesitant to say this out loud, but they are hinting they themselves and the party are dissatisfied with the moves being taken. has this caught them by surprise as well? >> yes. is that the public is very loyal to that party and in every other country, they would have been voted out. here because of the party it isy that there is, very difficult to get real change done. in other parts of the world, notably europe, you have other problems we cannot get the reform done. in south africa, the sitting party is there an obviously not very effective. in yes, putting a person that perspective by the financial market is an important
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step in the fight -- in the right direction. you need much more if you want to get south africa on its feet. them out of their control such as the commodity sector. so many things south africa could and should be doing. that is noty, happening. there could be dissatisfaction in the party but it does not look now like there is much change in the pipeline. brendan: let's talk about what they have in their control. one of the chief difficulties is taking all of the spending they have an turning that into infrastructure spending. they canve faith actually do this? >> those are all attempts here and there. you need a long-term plan. butso much the government the private sector is invalid -- is investing in south africa. losing a generation here among
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investments people are thinking about how they leave the country rather than invest in the country for future growth. that is the crux of it. governments can always think of spending their money in a better way. with the new party, a better way of spending the money. ultimately, not much is changing. it is interesting here you talk about finance ministers trusted. it is something really important a matter what your plan is in a developing market, so long as you have somebody who is harvard educated as your finance minister. i am thinking in brazil. there is some amount of trust there. is there truth in that strategy? >> certainly you need to have someone who knows how to balance the books and who knows or maybe the unknown person there in between could have done that. you build up confidence of somebody who has been there, done that. beyond that, the finance minister can only deal with the costs they aren't out with.
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they can say no, this is not a good idea or i will resign if you do this or that. we do it with the scope of the party. these are important steps but it is a stepping stone. it is not like he was the first choice. he is being put in after everybody resulted. it does not suggest there is a long-term plan on which direction the company will take it. maybe he came and said i will only do the job if you do a, b, c, and d. are deteriorating further, but you cannot build a on having things not deteriorate tear you need much more than that. we are back with your options insight coming up next. ♪
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brendan: welcome back. stocks trying to bounce back after suffering a biggest intraday decline since september. ramy is standing by with how the option market is looking. ramy: right now journey me for today's options insight is derivative strategist at mk holdings. pretty much today, everything has been up-and-down from equities to oil. up as high as 9% now down about -3.5%. what is your take has or tails of what is happening? >> a volatile day. index up in the mid 130's the other day. that is little bit as well. something i will say a number of times on here, is that historically, 1990 4, 1999, 2000, for the last time, we
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entered rate hike cycles over an extended time around the initial rate hike, we had higher equity volatility. it has not been a huge surprise. 76% according to the irp function for everyone following at home. you say it will send more volatility. at first i thought it would stabilize things. explain that. >> we think the august shock triggered and -- a reflection in the volatility cycle. prior to that, spot vix when it 10-12. the futures curve was gently upward sloping. it was a calm environment.
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is a change that hangs around for years. late in the economic cycle, that corresponds with a reflection of volatility cycle. if you look back prior to august, we would read that as a green light. short volatility, we do not right now. right now, we want to be more cautious because of the elevated floor under volatility now that we think hangs around for several years. want to dou something with the s&p itself. >> straightforward trade but we want to get back to systematic hedging. we are seven years into the bull and the economic expansion. they have not hedged. there has not been a reason to. this is conceptually something to think about. in the spider etf, go out three months, we are looking in february. 195, 180 spread, it costs over
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three dollars, creates almost a 3.5 to one payoff. what we do against that is look stock in yourt portfolio. it helps fund it and pays for your insurance. ramy: thank you. ahead, cheer and is -- cheniere energy -- cheniere energy has ousted its ceo. that is next. ♪ the only way to get better is to challenge yourself,
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and that's what we're doing at xfinity. we are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. and this includes our commitment to being on time. every time. that's why if we're ever late for an appointment, we'll credit your account $20. it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. ♪ brendan: live from bloomberg plus world headquarters in midtown manhattan, you're watching "bloomberg markets." we are great -- we're getting right to our bloomberg first word
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news. carol? carol: bowe bergdahl, facing charges for desertion and other charges. the army made the announcement, he was held by the taliban for nearly five years after he walked away from his stint in afghanistan. he was released last year in the controversial exchange for detainees in one, bay. he faces a possible life sentence. president obama says he wants to visit cuba before the end of his presidency but the conditions must be right. the president says "if i go on a visit, part of the deal is i get to talk to everybody. myet -- i made it clear conversations with president castro that we would reach out to those who want to broaden the scope or have, you know, free expression inside cuba." owners of drones are going to have to register the unmanned aircraft with the faa. the cost is five dollars. the faa is trying to impose order on how drones are used.
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there have been a number of incidents in which drones flew close to traditional aircraft. the newars today since town massacre. it is the first time the anniversary has fallen on the school day. the killings of 26 people at the sandy hook elementary school brought calls for tougher gun laws, but since then many states activists say have actually loosened them. still banned, that is the word on the case ofd pete rose. the all-time hit king will be banned from the sport and ineligible to the hall of fame. he has been banished from the game after investigation found that he had gambled on games while managing the cincinnati reds. you can get more on those and other breaking stories 24 hours per day at the new bloomberg.com. brendan, back over to you. brendan: say it ain't so, carol. carol: i know, i had nothing to
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do with it. you gamble, you get in trouble. brendan: pete rose, i'm ready to forgive. i'm ready to move on. the than 30 minutes until close of trading. abigail doolittle joins us live from the nasdaq. abigail: volatility is the story here. we were down and out -- down more than 1%, now up slightly. amazing. nonetheless the composite index remains below the moving average for a second day in a row, a bearish signal that suggest significant volatility is still ahead. today, gothe action pro. shares of this highly shorted stock have plunged to a new record low. this is one of the worst foreigners at the nasdaq, down over 7% this year today. shares are often a downgrade, taking the rating to an underweight reduced estimate cutting the price target to a street low of $12. capital had an
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interesting call saying that it makes an interesting target for apple. turning to apple, that stock is off today after j.p. morgan said that apple supply chains were showing a sign of weakness and that this could cause fiscal second-quarter estimates to come down. this is one side of the story this year from apple. a lot of analysts have been talking about a strong holiday season and good demand, but other analysts are talking about a supply chain amongst other companies. it has been a volatile year, all in all. amazingly, apple is flat on the year. it may prove that it is going to come down to whether or not profits grow or not in fiscal 2016. brendan? brendan: abigail doolittle at the nasdaq, thank you. massachusetts has announced that it is investigating the closure of 3rd avenue focused credit fund. they said they were shutting their $788 million credit mutual
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fund and delaying the distribution of investor cash, fueling the biggest one-day selloff in junk on the markets since august of 2011. william galvin joins me now on the phone. tell me first what you are expecting to find with the subpoena you have issued. , noblere hoping to find we are expecting to find, how the decision was made, when it was made, and what the impact is on massachusetts investors. it is an extraordinary event when you have a fund like this that abruptly shuts down. we want to make sure that this doesn't affect the liquidity of massachusetts investors and we want to know how the decision was reached. it's hard to believe that it was reached overnight. some planning had to have gone into it erie it another question arising from that, did anyone have advanced knowledge of this move? if there were investors that had advanced knowledge, were they
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able to withdraw their funds? the bigger issue is of course liquidity for those still in the fund. that is of great concern to us here. brendan: of course, there are concerns of liquidity all over high-yield credit. let's stop calling it high-yield and start calling it junk, that's what it is. several other funds have done the same thing, which presumably have customers or investors in the commonwealth of massachusetts. are you anticipating looking at any other high-yield funds? are veryn: we interested in the whole area. the anticipation of the rate hike has created a situation that many funds wonder what their situation is. we don't want to see a situation where people find themselves in an ill liquid position. we do believe that there needs to be so sort of notice to investors, some sort of policy here. particular case it is about what happened, how the decision was reached, and what
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is the impact on the investors left in the fund. secretary, the fund announced that it would close yesterday. you have this ready today, following rather hard upon. is this something that you have been looking at for longer than the last week? were aware of it. it relates to the concerns we have on the impact around the marketplace. especially what you are euphemistically calling high yield or junk. this aspect of the marketplace that was basically a place where people were looking for a greater return and where they went. what was going to be the impact when interest rates went up? we were aware of the antecedent facts. in this particular case the question is -- how was this decision reached and what is the impact on our investors? we have experience from past years with these kinds of situations and we don't want to see it replicated again. brendan: are you concerned that investors did not know what they were getting into? mr. galvin: what kind of notice
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did they get? what are their rights now? question.e immediate the mindset of the investors when they bought into it, i'm not sure. certainly they believed that in a company registered under the act that they would be able to get their money back. i assume that they believe that. the question is now -- what are their rights at the current time? how was this decision reached? werekind of withdrawals made before the decision were reached? brendan: william galvin, thank you. concerned about liquidity, he said. more than anything, the ability of the mutual fund and private investor to get that money out quickly, as is always the assumption. be right back. as we had to break, we will take a look at stocks afterwards. little changed today. ♪
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good afternoon, welcome back to "bloomberg markets." time for the bloomberg business flash, look at the biggest stories in the news right now. apple getting the biggest gift from taylor swift, she is releasing her world tour video exclusively on apple music. free for streaming for those users. apple music is currently the only streaming platform where her best-selling 1989 is available. metro-goldwyn-mayer has named mark burnett as president of mgm television and digital. under a five-year contract, the company is also taking full artist of the united media group where roma downey will serve as president of the religious tv unit. disney is taking hollywood by storm tonight. the world premiere of the new
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"star wars" movie. amazing, i'm going to cry a little bit. a stretch of hollywood boulevard is closed for the premier. someone, somewhere will have already seen it even though it opens on friday, which kills me a little inside. you can get more business news at bloomberg.com. oil dropping below $45 per barrel for the first time since 2009. prices rose earlier the afternoon, erasing losses, closing at $36. investors are contending with low crude prices. the immediate question is -- what will a tightening monetary cycle mean for the commodities market? we are bringing in catherine flach. .hank you i want to start with geopolitics first. when oil moves, we look at iran,
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libya, looking to see if something disturbed supply. can we attribute this to geopolitical factors? or is this just more making sense of what's coming out of opec? catherine: i think a lot of it is just making sense of what's coming out of opec. it was very interesting coming out of the meeting that there wasn't any news coming out. it was a lot of the same messaging around the crowding out of the conventional players. probably going to be some rough going for a while for a lot of people on the producers side. the difference is, or the new thing, the thing that maybe pushed people over the edge a little bit, is the lack of reference to the cap. i think that maybe it was a bit of a single -- signal to the market that things really are in a bit of disarray. in the persistence of the current world in which we live in which it is just a free for all? i'm afraid that that is where we
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are going to be for a while. i get the sense that the market participants are going -- are you really serious? i think that there's a lot of that. not if the opec meeting had happened recently, we are getting perilously close to the end of 2016 -- 2015 with producers looking into the abyss , saying -- my gosh, we cannot squeeze any more costs out of what we are doing and, for the most part, the level of hedging is so low coming into 2016 compared to 2015, with relatively high levels of prices -- if you look at $80 prices that many of the producers had, it was a lot of protection that has gone away. the things that has been moving in congress is the bill that would allow for the export of gasoline. them moveen watching
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together. is anything change when brent actually move? -- merge? interestingt is so for a child of the 70's, like me, to see happening. for many of us we grow up that it-- grew up in was very important not to export crude, energy independence is the thing. it's been a mantra in the background. all of a sudden it seems that something behind that. while it's true that right now you have that 10% premium over wti -- not that i'm sure u.s. producers wouldn't be delighted to get that increase, it doesn't really address the actual issue, which is what about the oversupply. brendan: once we abandoned pretense that there would be control of supply, you would think it would settle out to be a question of demand as you see
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oil move with other commodities. is echoing to happen? will we get a reset point soon? i think actually the oversupply was quite a planned effort. when you look at saudi arabia and opec, saudi arabia made it quite clear that they weren't going to balance anymore. so, the intense -- the intent that has been underscored, that's really what the change is going to be. see the capital expenditures decreasing. as we get into 2016, the oil supply is naturally, probably later in the year, going to have to start coming off. the supply is just not going to be there if you don't invest anymore. brendan: catherine flach's, , thank you very much. one of the big executives in the industry lost his job over the weekend. he was set to be part of the first company to export natural
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gas, now he's saying the board did the right thing. here with some perspective, bloomberg's matthew phillips. i know that you have been down to this export terminal in louisiana. souki's charif strategy? matthew: he wanted to own as much of the export market as he could possibly get his hands on. not only with that amount to a $20 billion export terminal, they were well underway with construction of a terminal in corpus christi. he wanted to set up a large trading platform, possibly getting into the crude export game if and when that end goes away. tol icahn, it seems, wanted up his stake. we learned this last week. from 8% to 13%. whenever you are the ceo of a
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company that has never had a profit and carl icahn comes in, that's never good news. this is what happened. finds himself a ski bum these days, instead of an oil executive. brendan: his ambition has been curtailed, who else might be in an expansive mood? the market has changed so much in the past couple of years. the prices are pegged to oil prices. a couple of years ago when gas lngstill cheap in the u.s., was still expensive in asia, japan, and europe. charif souki had this nice arbitrage where he could buy it cheaply in the u.s. and sell it high overseas. that trust does not exist anymore. massive amounts of energy will be coming out of australia and the u.s. in the next couple of years.
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the market has gone quickly from a short supply to a glut. it is a question of whether the profits that we thought would be there just one year ago are going to be there. all right, matt phillips, a bloomberg news reporter who took a helicopter to a tanker in the gulf just to get the story, thank you very much. coming up, we are heading towards the market close and stocks are bouncing around today. ♪
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roller coaster we have been seeing for the whole entire day. take a look to see where we actually started. right now we are, from 9:30, basically, we saw this as it to 11:30 for the session low, hitting the highs at 1 p.m., then again to hit it again as we are 10 minutes before the close of the day. the reason for this volatility, i want to show you, is in my bloomberg terminal. materials have been the biggest lagging sector the entire day. down 1.7%, dow in dupont being forbiggest as they called the ouster, basically, of dow's ceo. interestingly we saw earlier today that many of these sectors, seven if not eight, were in the red right now. as you can see, industrials going flat, materials the only negative sector. interestingly, energy stocks are among the top performers today,
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pulling up from the route of the price of oil last week. look at this, nymex crude is up by 1.6%, riding the coattails of exxon and chevron. now, with crude it's crossed back higher than the $35 mark that it had fallen below today. $36 $.21.it is at one thing, we are still at february 2009 lows. one other commodity to speak of his natural gas. falling even more, down by four and two thirds percent. really is all about the warmer weather we have been having. today it's 60 degrees -- more than that, really. forecasts also saying that the u.s. will be warmer than normal. gas stocks have fallen. by 3.7%.s down
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brendan? .rendan: thank you, ramy carnage in the high-yield bond market continues to spread. liquidating their $900 million fund, the third to do so in the past week. just now we have the massachusetts secretary of the commonwealth, william galvin, joining us. they just opened a probe into 3rd avenue. for more on this we have lisa abramowicz. we are going to bring in catering so that you can talk about high yield 24 hours per day, obviously. let's start with the subpoena issued today in the 3rd avenue. we just talked to the secretary of the commonwealth, who said he was concerned about liquidity, the idea that investors might not be able to get out what they put in as promised. what do you expect he will find? the big question is -- did 3rd avenue adequately warn investors about the potential for liquidity crunch? about the potential for them to want to withdraw cash and only
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being able to at heavily, heavily discounted values. my colleague, neil weinberg, wrote an incredibly good article focusedw the 3rd avenue credit fund promised it would not get over $3 billion. they got above $3 billion. they said that the bond market liquidity concerns were a myth, but they were not by any means in this case. at what point does this before of -- does this become dishonest or inadequate advertising? frankly, i would guess that other fund managers are out there watching what comes of this and the precedent it sets forward. not the only fun to a disorderly exit of the market. well, so far it has been fairly contained, right? a couple of funds have liquidated investors in summer hedge funds. the question is -- will this
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percolate into the broader high-yield market away from the distressed debt universe in particular. it really comes down to psychology. will investors start fleeing? will they start pulling their money? will there be a panic? a run? if there is it will become itself the filling prophecy. -- it will become a self filling prophecy. brendan: high-yield comes with high risk. lisa: people wanted a little more yield in this era of financial repression. now you have yields. you want yields? you got your yields. 8%, 9%, you got it. but people aren't going in now. you would think at some point they would, but right now the marginal buyer, the opportunist isn't there. write forou should mob movies. you want your yield? i got your yield right here. lisa: [laughter] brendan: one more quick question about goldman sachs.
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they looked at it and they said it is still about commodities producers. they are looking at mining and oil. is that really the story right now? sell a certain point you what you have to sell. they might not be selling those, even though that's what they want to be selling and it can percolate out to the rest of the market. all right, thank you, lisa abramowicz, our bloomberg at fly columnist. orrch for it on the terminal search for bloomberg gadfly on the web. "what'd you miss?" is next. here's a look at stocks, little bit of green on the day. ♪
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[closing bell] alix: u.s. stocks rebounding, the s&p bouncing back coming to its chief level since 2006. scarlet: the question is, "what'd you miss?" some fundst carnage, are liquidated. how bad could withdrawals be? the fed alert, we discussed the mechanics behind a fed increase. alix: oil fallout, crude dipping for the first time in six years below $45 per barrel. which companies are feeling scarlet: the most pain? scarlet:but we of course begin with the markets. funny that we should end at , stock indexes gyrated in the morning, settling down in the afternoon to a tight range before finishing on an up note. basically,
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