" to: "with all due respect donald trump's lawyer, good luck. on our catch tonight, super pac seven that life crisis in the republican establishment copes with reality. but first, ted cruz's big breakthrough. a new poll out today. we will talk about the democratic numbers in the second, but on the republican side, it is all about ted cruz, who skyrocketed past donald trump in the first in the nation caucus state, bleeding every

candidate by double digits at 31%. ben carson has fallen down to 13%, to 15% drop from october. nationally, trump is still in charge. a new poll has him dominating the field at 41%. there is no one else who comes close. still, trump spend the weekend hitting ted cruz on policy positions, on personal stuff, and on his temperament, calling his rival "a little bit of a maniac." greasepaint is still -- cruz is still turning the other cheek, but ahead of the debate tomorrow, what do you think will happen next in the debate and beyond in the cruz-trump debacle? john: remember those old comic books like bam, powie? that is what i think will happen. donald trump cannot resist going after ted cruz at this point. tomorrow isine that

not going to feature fisticuffs. back?does cruz hit trump john: it will be an extraordinary test of his discipline. i don't think he's going to go after him. if he does go after him i think it will be more in sadness and anger. cruz is not going to launch the fisticuffs. we saw that this weekend. the whole personality of trump is not to have someone ahead of him, it's intolerable. he thinks every time he gets ahead of him he takes them out. he is going to want to test that with ted cruz. he will not allow him to sit in first place. mark: ted cruz is an angelical from cuba. he has not found the right wording yet and he is always very proud when you get the right wording. i believe that trump will hit

cruz on not being an american, because he was born in canada. credentials,rump's it is for him to play the birther card. people do believe that are thinking trump's attitude will be that he does not need to win iowa. but if he wins iowa and new hampshire he could close it out early. john: we have seen him go after iowa over the weekend on oil. i think that will be an area -- in the debate i imagine him going after the hypocrites. there are themes coming out of cruz acting like a different guy in new york. trump likes the character attack. the likes the psychological. mark: they will say -- let's see if trump goes on

tv with negative ads. s favorable-unfavorable rating is skyhigh. mark: he's also quite disciplined. and make some hard to attack. more than a month before the iowa caucuses, and pulls are just a snapshot of any given race, any given moment. but with all of that, ted cruz's momentum in iowa has a well-funded campaign, perceived strength in the southern states. the question on everyone's mind is this, whether cruz past trump is as the most likely republican nominee. let's say ye? i think the chances of being the nominee are roughly equal. until cruz shows he can pass trump in any other state, i have to think that trump still the favorite.

they are not any crazier about cruz than trump. when it comes down to it, cruz will have to find his way to a whole, broad constituency and he is not there yet. john: right. and the thing about cruz is that he is not going to win new hampshire. because it's an issue of profiling. i do think that the question, as i have been saying, if cruz gets into first place, what does that do to trump? what effect that due to his psychology, his tactic? what is the new dynamic? it's why i think there is some chance that cruz was the more likely nominee than trump, because i think there is a chance that if cruz wins iowa, it will deflate trump in such a way that someone else beat him in new hampshire, and then he will have lost two straight and that will be crippling.

mark: the biggest questions in the race right now, beyond the short-term question, is does trump have a real organization? how does trump handle adversity? i think we all believe that ted cruz will fight fiercely, even if he does worse in iowa than he wants. a third question is related to the first question. is trump willing to spend money on this race? that's not just about organization, that is about ads. we still don't know the answer, whether donald will face an opponent like ted cruz and spending tens of millions of dollars to finance, if he starts to believe he might not win. john: they will be fascinating to see if -- i don't know. he really wants to win. he is also really cheap, proudly cheap, and he has said before if he doesn't think he will win, you will get out of the race. you might not do it quick.

mark: he is still the favorite until cruz overtakes him a little more. cruz has extraordinary assets in fundraising and in super pac's, and extraordinary, diverse coalition. john: and a real past. mark: most of the attention is on ted cruz and donald trump, and the rest are feeling sundaes like the other movies coming out on the same day as "star wars." one of them is marco rubio. his campaign is putting out a new ad this week in iowa and new hampshire, and it contains an extraordinary litany of conservative positions. >> this election is about the essence of america, about all of us who see a lot of place in our own country. the government out of touch and millions of traditional values branded bigots and haters. is that wages growing slower than the cost of living, a generation drowning in debt, and the president humiliated by putin, iran, and islamic

jihadists. i'm i'd like a room y and i approve this message -- i marco rubio, and i approve this message. mark: we will be out next week for the debate. he is fascinating, that's incredible grab bag of issues. my question is, is rubio right now the third most likely nominee, the most likely to disrupt a two-person race, or someone else in that slot? john: it will either be marco rubio or chris christie. i say this as a disclaimer every stilli have been -- i think there is a better chance of chris christie winning in new hampshire. maybe if rubio finishes a strong third, maybe he will get a boost, and that will boost him in new hampshire. but today? i have this gut feeling that christie is in a better position than review because of his -- then rubio. john: i think the establishment

person to rise up will look like they have the best chance. the reason why i think that is rubio today is he hasn't scrutiny and he has with standard well. kristy has had no scrutiny for weeks, and i continue to believe that the minute kristy looks to be a threat in new hampshire, trump and others will go after him. we'll see if you can survive that are not. i also believe that kristi is not as strong in iowa as i thought. rubio may still be the top finisher in iowa, and that slot, i continue to believe, is the slot. mark: no doubt it is meaningful. and i don't want to diminish your point about scrutiny, but i think there are a lot of republicans will look at those guys, and marco rubio looks good on paper, and chris christie looks good in flash. he projects strength and adulthood and maturity. i know it is crazy to say that. he has a gravitas.

i think there is something about him. john: watch rubio in the debate tomorrow. mark: the democratic timbers from our iowa poll -- up next, the democratic numbers from our iowa poll. ♪

mark: the other big headline is on the democratic side. the last time we were in the field in october, hillary clinton had expanded her lead over bernie sanders in the hawkeye state. she has 48% of likely democratic

caucus goers. sanders still leads in the traditional areas of strength. mark, with the next democratic debate coming up on saturday in new hampshire, should hillary clinton, looking at this poll, be happy with these numbers are worried? mark: a little bit worried. the clinton people think the gap is the sweet spot between two a lead and too small a lead. sanders thinks it is "fantastic news." she had a great run in the media, she had the debate, and sanders is within double digits. i think he can still threaten her in iowa. the clean user or -- the key is her organization.

can it turn out voters, or will there be an enthusiasm gap? john: it's a sad octopus moment for hillary clinton. in october before she had that incredible run, and in the intervening months, they saw her ahead by 20, 30, 40 points. i'm with the sanders cap on this. if she is not ahead by double digits and its december, the one thing we know is that any good run will be followed by a bad run, and the press will want this to be a battle. january, the polls will tighten. i think you will be looking at a margin of error, and that is not where hillary clinton wants to be. mark: maybe, but the enemy of clinton's campaign in iowa is complacency, and the feeling like people don't need to be engaged. sanders are energized and engaged. john: i don't mean to say she's

not the favorite, i'm just saying she should be nervous. coming up, our conversation with two former presidential candidate and what they said about the 2016 race. ♪

mark: earlier today, john and i went to the hotel and often city, where business leaders to discuss national security, immigration, entitlement reform, and defici reduction. it advocates for centrist policies in trying to break through partisan gridlock. we had a chance to talk to sell

of the business leaders there about the issues that matter most to them in the context of the 2016 race. >> i would say energy security would be at the top of my list. obviously, the right place with the deficit would you there also. >> job creation and growth, world leadership. is a global stage. >> income inequality, the stagnation of middle-class income, those are central issues. those are not left or right issues. we may have a disagreement about the tactics of the programs. >> simplifying the tax base. people don't believe that it is fair, to individuals or corporations. it is too complex. that will support job creation if we had a more straightforward tax system. two: no labels is run by past presidential candidates, joe lieberman and jon huntsman. we sat down and started our

conversation by talking about the 2016 election, with a little historical perspective. >> you both ran for president in rockets years. how would you compare this cycle to the one you guys were in? >> more raucous. this is unprecedented. 2003-2004, there were more than 10 candidate. there are some comparisons with and it wascan race, much more divisive and bombastic. >> i would say the mood within the republican party is more extreme, probably driven by a sense that we are losing our place in the world, we are falling behind, and that the economy has not been able to reset itself. pre-economic collapse. there is an extreme response to that, giving rise, i think, to more candidates who are bringing

a more extreme message in terms of how they would deal with these issues. smaller field, more genteel conversation about the issues. big difference. mark: you guys spoke on your careers in public service, committed to common sense, centrist, pragmatic, trying to get to the middle. when you look at this race, both on the democratic and republican side, do you have a cause for despair? >> my last years in the senate were the most divisive and least productive for the chamber. my 24 years there, it has only gotten worse. that is why the country is so mad. is the answer to the anger not to give the more reason to be angry and divisive. we have got to find common ground again, salsa problems. >> so we are moving toward

problem-solving. that is the whole thesis is no labels. this admittedly is not a primary play. what we are hearing in the market, we are seeing a world away. we think we are on the side of most americans. polling would suggest that the american people want a problem-solving president, both sides to get a few things done. they want greater harmony in washington. what we are doing suggests that we may be ahead of the game, but whoever is racing toward the finish line on either side, democrat or republican, this is the message that will be a winning message. we may be ahead in the game but at the end of the day this is what will resonate. it feels like your voice gets drowned out in the howling wind of all i politics. >> it's a problem. the letter you shout and the more extreme the content, the more attention you get.

john: what would you like for the president to do? >> you have got to have your foot on the accelerator. so if you look at the positive trend, i'd have to say that we have a new speaker of the house who seems to be a little more collaborative. expert in tax reform, which will be part of the whole scenario. if you can imagine combining the work of our news with a new who lets us think that we may have an opening, honeymoon period during which they can get some work done, like wenzhou was advocating around the strategic -- you have a convergence of the executive branch and legislative branch doing a couple things. you can stimulate the economy to do better than forecast, 2.5%, 3% when the sun is shining, that would add to the revenue side,

which would be a huge boost in terms of overall deficit reduction. in terms of economic growth, health care is a huge issue. the president says it is the greatest achievement decades, republicans say horrible. how do you to evaluate where it is currently, substantively, and what the challenge of the next president will have improving it and making it less of a drag. e, i talk about so-called obamacare, is the best thing were the worst. but it is there. i remember when president clinton came in toward the end of the obamacare debate, and he sent to some of us who are still uncertain about whether to support it, this system is so complicated, the status quo is od working, get it as g as you can get it to come back

every session to fix another problem when you are in the midst of a partisan backbiting war. k the change that occurred is there to stay. people are getting insurance i didn't get it before. hopefully people will work together and fix it. my worry about it is that some of the numbers have encouraged if you had adopted the affordable care act it would be a net plus. i'm worried about it. i never reached a conclusion but i'm waiting to. the problem is that some of the unpopular things that have artie and stopped by executive action are the ones weighing into revenue. everyone wants the benefits and no one wants to pay for it, and that is where we have the humongous deficit.

john: the leading candidate for republican nomination is donald trump. presidency, becomes president in 2017. what does that look like? is there any way his presidency could lead the direction you guys have here? >> i am trying to imagine some of the things he said on the stump, reconciling them with problem solver presidents in the final stretch. in the conversation we had, he said, i work with diverse groups in compliments in this appellees. to cross that impenetrable divide. he used those words. john: did you buy that? >> his history would suggest he is a bit of both in the private sector. john: senator lieberman, the same question for hillary clinton. hillary clinton, as polarizing

as she is, could she be a no label president? >> yes. i based that on knowing her for a long time. i haven't endorsed hillary. i have been enjoying the cover of no labels. [laughter] >> yes. her whole background, i watched it in the senate. will she definitely? who knows? but she knows how to negotiate, my knows how to compromise, guess is she knows how fed up the american people are with the lack of anything getting done in washington. john: so those two guys are a model for what is in short supply, a centrist reasonableness. what was your sense of what they think will happen in terms of producing a president who can get stuff done? mark: i think they are doing a

good job of maintaining poker faces, trying to pretend that they are not as out of step with the discourse we are hearing as they are, which is really out of step. we heard a fair number of business people say hillary clinton might be ok, but there is nobody among the leaders of the republican race that makes anyone comfortable right now. john: all right. our thanks to joe lieberman and jon huntsman for sitting down with us. , more from the hawkeye state poll. why donald trump may be of more interest. ♪ the only way to get better is to challenge yourself,

and that's what we're doing at xfinity. we are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. and this includes our commitment to being on time. every time. that's why if we're ever late for an appointment, we'll credit your account $20. it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. john: our next guest reduces -- produces the gold standard of

all polls. selzer joins us now from her home state to break down the numbers. ted cruz vaulting to a large lead in numbers. the issues, itto is even better for him in some ways. what did you find? >> keep in mind, it is the largest week -- leak we have seen in five decades we have been holding call the less pulling caucuses. traps numbers are not much weaker than he was in october. he is to point higher. he stays in second place. it is just there is a different person at the top of the chart. if we have trump and cruise going at each other and they try to pick up supporters, who has a better chance? >> that is definitely ted cruz

taking things away from trump. he gets 49% of trump supporters who said ted cruz is their second choice. it is half of that. ty in terms pari of cruz supporters going to trump. mark: half of the people who support trump say they would go to cruz as opposed to other options. is that unusually high as a second choice? >> it makes me think about what they have in common. it is very high for a second choice, especially. in the field this big it makes you think about what they have in common. cruz has surpassed trump on key areas, that having the best temperament, experience. there are ways in which he is the one people think with the leadership ideas. the: we know how important event block is. is it now the case that ted cruz

has an iron grip on the evangelical community? he gets 45% of people who say they mainly define themselves as evangelical conservatives. trump gets 12%. that is better than a 4-1 advantage. ben carson gets some, but it is still way over 3-1. that is a group that tends to turn out in higher than predicted percentages. it is a key group you want to be sure you can get locked in. mark: how does that can print mike huckabee and rick santorum's performances with evangelicals? ofneither got the majority people who define themselves as being jellico's or born-again christians, but they got the plurality. that was one thing that led them to the top. a methodology, our poll shows ted cruz with a big lead. there have been several polls in

iowa. what explains the difference from ted cruz having a big lead in our poll versus trump leading or having them roughly tied? >> some had to do with the way they are sampling. i cannot go into it letter by letter. what i did see in the poll that was surprising is they were in the field for 10 days. think about the things happening leading up to when we feel that our poll and cruz getting key adorsements from steve king, congressman who carries a lot of prestige in terms of certain communities, and also from the family leader. that is something the christian coalition community pays attention to. much ofht have had too their fielding done before those events happened. on the democratic side, we have hillary clinton up by nine points over bernie sanders. what is there in the poll

hillary clinton should worry about? >> bernie sanders has not faded away. what has happened since our last poll are things affecting -- effectively putting the presidential question very much at center stage with a different look. looking at foreign relations, terrorism, all those things you want in a president. really backed off in terms of this poll. i think the thing to think about is he is continuing to make his constituency feel good. can he make them feel safe? can he make them feel he would be the best commander-in-chief? right now, our poll says no. mark: i want to go back to the republicans for one last question. we talked about the great news for cruz. if you are trump looking at the poll, is there a clear path to regain the lead? >> trumps numbers on certain key indicators are quite strong.

.hey still see him as the doer he talks about himself as the builder. looking at getting things done, managing the economy, dealing with illegal immigration, all of those things you want a president to do, he is far superior to even cruz's best number on that. he has got that. he has a high percentage of thieves --'s people who say they are locked in. a majority of supporters say they would follow him to a third-party. this is not a bad poll for donald trump except he is not leading. john: ann selzer, thank you as always. pacng up, ted cruz super donald trump strategy. we will be right back. ♪

on bloombergpolitics.com is a story about how donald trump's candidacy has neutralized millions of dollars super pac's plan to spend in the presidential race. one of the outside groups still trying to take down trump is new day for america, which is supporting john kasich. they are going up with his new ad in new hampshire. take a look. >> hippo-crite. donald trump repeatedly says one thing, does another. the hypocrite says he is champion of american workers, but has his ties made in china. some of the laborers on his palatial hotel are illegal immigrants. america needs proven, honorable

leadership. john kasich. isnew day for america's -- responsible for this advertising. john: here is kellyanne conway, running one of the outside groups deking ted cruz, which is taking a different approach. i want to ask you to comment on that ad and tell me what you think about it. if he say anything bad, all of the hippo fans will be offended. >> it is clever and very well produced. it keeps you on the edge of your seat as to who is supporting the ad before it runs. you find out at the end it is john kasich who should be the alternative to the hypocrite. i don't know if it is going to move the needle because there is nothing new content wise that people have not heard about donald trump. hillary clinton was at your wedding, you gave her money. your ties are made in china.

if you change your views on core issues. i feel the voters have heard it all. it does not mean they will support him at the ballot box, but they have heard all of this. he did a clever thing early on. mr. trump locked onto the electorate and makes them feel that when he is criticized, they are criticized. mark: your friends with ted cruz. you're not allowed to strategize with him on the campaign because you're working for one of the super pac's. what do you think of the current posture? as donald trump begins to attack him, he turns the other cheek as opposed to fighting back. >> it is classic ted cruz. people look at him as being difficult. he is quite magnanimous. he is disagreeable with things he finds disagreeable. every republican senator got to washington, i guarantee you, at some point promising to repeal obama care. body stoodthe whole

on his feet for 21 hours trying to stand between obamacare and final funding. i appreciate the fact that when senator cruz is being attacked he decides to take the high road and look magnanimous. we following that in the super pac. we are sitting on professionally produced contrast ads with three or four of our opponents. i'm ready to deploy them when we need to. mark: marco rubio did something that is helping to derail obamacare in legislation that senator cruz has not done. will you possibly run those before christmas? have you ruled that out for now? >> we probably won't. but we will see what happens. we expect everybody will gang up on senator cruz p he will have a target on his back beginning with tomorrow night's debate. let's focus on what the attacks are about. if they are about personality traits, it seems mr. trump's attacks are not coming from the left and not the right. he is repeating the same attacks

democrats make about senator cruz. campaign hasuz's to respond to every insult or accusation, we will burn through our money trying to settle scores with people not telling the truth. john: what be the trigger to launch those ads? if tomorrow night, ted cruz decided not to turn the other cheek and started beating donald trump. with that be the signal? becomese repetition reality, if people hear something so often even if it is not true that we feel we need to correct the record, we are happy to do that. our ads are funny. some of our opponents have given us great fodder to have fun with their past statements and records. there are deal breakers to the republican caucus electorate that i don't some candidates can overcome. if you have been for amnesty, it is going to be tough. john: this gets to an interesting question. you cannot coordinate.

you're trying to look for signs and signals as to what to do. is it more important what you are seeing in the electoral environment or what the candidate you are supporting is doing in terms of how he is conducting himself? >> requested. we tried to do a combination of both. senator cruz is out every day doing things. he keeps a certain schedule. he will do a swing through the southern states. we saw where he was going. we were in the field with polls and focus groups trying to figure out what people thought. we are very focused on super tuesday. we have a post-february strategy . we want to be built for the long haul. we also have independent research. saying heen seen -- is seen as the reasonable alternative, the original outsider. but he is an insider. his day job puts them at the intersection of public policy and politics.

of you and cry that we need a governor and executive experience, you're not a life r but you're there chairing hearings. senator rubio was there for two days in november. mark: luckily, senator cruz watches the show so you're able to share your data. does the money the super pac's spend really matter? or is it more about news coverage? >> we like to have both. the big disappointment in 2015 on been the very poor return investment a paid advertisement. $50 million, it is a repeat of what happened in 2012. we have these donors so disappointed. they gave millions to super pac's. they are getting what they knew there were going to get, which is a multiplatform way to talk to the voters. traditional techniques like

direct mail and phone banking and more recent techniques like digital ads, text messaging, social media. we will have cable and broadcast when we feel it is appropriate. mark: who can be the nominee besides ted cruz? >> donald trump, marco rubio. mark: just those? >> maybe jeb bush if he hangs in and has some money and start backing up some of the bigger states. but you need a quality candidate. john: kellyanne conway, thank you as always. next, the honorable jennifer jacobs with new reporting on donald trump's iowa ground game after this. ♪

donald trump: you have one of the most this honest in your backyard. "the des moines register" is the worst. the worst. jacobs ister named the worst. it is suchite -- misrepresentation. i don't care. i am saying it right in their backyard. mark: some reporter named jacobs. that was donald trump in iowa friday night talking about our next guest. we disagree with mr. trump. nobody knows more about i will politics better than jennifer jacobs. she is the political correspondent and joins us from des moines. were you covering that event when mr. trump name checked you? >> yes, i was there.

some of his aides greeted me as i walked in. i had passed along a message for him that if he wants to know anything about power pole, let me know. so he knew i was there. mark: let me ask you about his ground game, something we have talked about for months. maybe the biggest question in politics today. can he turn out the people now telling pollsters they are for him? what are you finding about that of late? >> i decided to look behind the curtain. what i'm hearing is he reportedly has 55,000 names in a he has harvested from big rallies across iowa. even if he were to get half of those 55,000, he would perform well in the iowa caucuses. our new iowa poll did not show a big influx of newcomers to the iowa caucuses. i wondered if these people are going to show up. i went to a training session.

trump is just now starting to ramp up his training for precinct captains. those are some of the most trusted, insider, county leaders that speak up for the candidate on the night of the caucuses. they are really important. about 90 people showed up for this event saturday. the interesting part is 2/3 raised their hands to say they had never caucused before or done organizing. it was interesting to see. mark: is that a good or bad sign? >> that is the question. even donald trump is really disorganized and just now starting to recruit these newbies who do not know what they are doing in the caucuses seven weeks ahead of the caucuses, for he is successful in recruiting people from all over the state who have never been in politics before who will go out and persuade friends and neighbors to show up for donald trump. john: i think back to the last

iowa caucuses in 2012 where rick santorum got very hot at the end. ultimately won the caucuses by a few votes without much of an organization or ground game. is there anything in the santorum experience trunk can look to and say i can do it too? >> exactly. .t is that organic response when you're hot in the polls, when people are drawn to you, they are going to show up to the caucuses. they will naturally show up. mark: we have seen carson hot for a while. trump has been hot. now cruz is hot. do you see anybody else who has the capacity to get caught before february 1? >> there are people in our poll who have high favorability ratings like marco rubio. he is well-liked by the likely caucus-goers. chris christie rose the most in

favorability in our poll. i think there's probably a narrow path for jeb bush in iowa. not every republican in iowa is an evangelical, christian conservative or tea party republican. there are more mainstream republicans. they just don't tend to show up that much. if they were to show up, there would be a narrow path for him. who knows? john: big story last week was trump and his proposed muslim ban. we talked about it for the entire week and trump continues to do well in national polling. has fallen back a bit in iowa but continues to show strength. what do you here in iowa about that issue specifically from iowa republicans? whomongst his supporters say they would choose him first for president, 73% favor that kind of a muslim ban.

if you look at the overall caucus electric, they are split. about 47% say they do not like it. 47% say they do like that. what was interesting in our poll was we have 40% of likely caucus-goers who say they initially thought some things trump was saying needed to be said, but now they think he has gone too far. about 8% do not like anything that comes out of his mouth. but he is clearly appealing to a base in iowa. mark: congressman king endorsed. are there other meaningful endorsement still up for grabs? leadersrtain republican start to get worried about ted cruz winning iowa, a guy who does not support the renewable fuel standard which is important for ethanol in the state, you could see some ethanol champions come off the sidelines, perhaps

the governor himself. if they are really worried about cruz winning, they might do that. mark: with the worry extend those havenol or do other reasons to stop ted cruz if you look like he is going to win? >> it is possible. what they are saying privately is it is not good for iowa to have somebody so opposed to this important ethanol mandate to win a state like iowa. mark: it will be interesting to see if anyone gets into this. it would be a game changer. john: they are powerful people. i wonder how much they would lose the electorate. it would be interesting for sure . mark: we appreciate it. you can check out jennifer's picture at the airport every time you go through. thank you. we will be right back. ♪

john: we are on the television set twice a day at 5:00 and 8:00 eastern. we are live 24/7 on bloombergpolitics.com. check out our tracker for the latest updates. mark: tomorrow's program live from the venetian hotel in downtown las vegas. not downtown, but on the strip. we will be there to cover the republican debate. we will see you from the strip tomorrow night. until then, sayonara. ♪

emily: i am emily chang in your watching "bloomberg west." president obama says allied forces are getting islamic state

harder than ever. the president said the group's leaders cannot hide. president obama: we are going after isil from their stronghold from downtown to libya. the point is issa leaders cannot hide at our next message to them is simple, you are next. ted cruz is leading by double digits in iowa 49 days before the caucuses. cruise is backed by 31% of republicans in the new poll. donald trump has 21%. ben carson, 13%. democrats, hillary clinton has a nine-point lead over bernie sanders in iowa. the jury has started deliberations in the trial of the first six baltimore officers accused in the death of freddie gray. officer william porter is charged with manslaughter, assault, reckless endangerment, and misconduct. he faces a maximum penalty of 25 years behind bars.