♪ i am john heilemann. mark: and i am mark. john: with reality. but first, ted cruz and his big breakthrough. we have a new i will pull out today, and we going to talk about the democratic numbers, but on the republican side, it is all about texas senator ted past who skyrocketed

donald trump. ben carson has fallen down to 13%, a 15% drop from our october poll, but naturally, donald trump is still in charge, and a new poll has him dominating the field at 41%. there is no one else who comes close. ted cruz is second at 14%. still, trump spend the weekend hitting ted cruz on policy positions, on personal stuff, and on his temperament, calling his rival "a little bit of a maniac." cruz is still turning the other cheek, however, and, john, we will talk about that, but ahead of the debate tomorrow, what do you think will happen next in the debate and cruz-trumphe conflict? john: remember those old comic

books like bam, powie? that is what i think will happen. donald trump cannot resist going after ted cruz at this point. i can't imagine that tomorrow is not going to feature fisticuffs. mark: does cruz hit trump back? if so, what does he hit back on? john: it will be an extraordinary test of his discipline. he has been very discipline so far, not going after him and public. mark: i don't think he's going to go after him. if he does go after him i think it will be more in sadness and anger. john: yes, i think it will be a counterpunch effort. cruz is not going to launch the fisticuffs. we saw that this weekend. just the whole personality of trump is not to have someone ahead of him, it is just intolerable for him, and he thinks every time he gets ahead of him he takes them out. he is going to want to test that with ted cruz. he will not allow him to sit in first place in iowa. first place. mark: ted cruz is an angelical from cuba. he has not found the right wording yet and he is always very proud when you get the right wording. i believe that trump will hit cruz on not being an american,

because he was born in canada. john: it would be consistent, given trump's credentials, the birther, for him to play the birther card. mark: that has not bothered mr. trump before. i do believe that people are thinking trump's attitude will be that he does not need to win iowa. but he knows if he wins iowa and new hampshire he could close it , out early. john: we have seen him go after iowa over the weekend on oil. and the ethanol. i think that will be an area -- he is going to hit that especially in iowa. in the debate i imagine him going after the hypocrites. there are themes coming out of cruz acting like a different guy in new york than he plays in iowa. trump likes the character attack. the likes the psychological. jibe.

mark: beholden to millionaires and billionaires. john: and he is a phony. mark: right now cruz's , favorable-unfavorable rating is skyhigh. the task will be more difficult than it was several weeks ago. john: and it makes him harder to attack. all right, there is still more than a month before the iowa caucuses, and polls are just a snapshot of any given race, any given moment. but with all of that, ted cruz's momentum in iowa has a well-funded campaign and the super pac and his perceived strength in the southern states. the question on everyone's mind is this, whether cruz past trump suddenly as the most likely republican nominee. so, mark, i will ask you. what say ye? mark: i think the chances of being the nominee are roughly equal. until cruz shows he can pass trump in any other state, i have to think that trump still the favorite. the other thing is, i am not the

first to say this they are not , any crazier about cruz than trump. and i think when it comes down to it that cruz will have to find his way to a whole, broad constituency and he is not there yet. he is good, but he is not there yet. john: right. and the thing about cruz is that he is not going to win new hampshire. i rule it out because it's an issue of profiling. they are not going to want to ratify. i do think that the question, as i have been saying, if cruz gets into first place, what does that do to trump? what does that do to his psychology? what does that do to his tactics? what is the new dynamic? it's why i think there is some chance that cruz was the more likely nominee than trump, because i think there is a chance that if cruz wins iowa, it will deflate trump in such a way that someone else beat him in new hampshire, and then he fightsave lost two

straight and that will be crippling. mark: the biggest questions in the race right now, beyond the short-term question on how these two fight is does , trump have a real organization? how does trump handle adversity? i think we all believe that ted cruz will fight fiercely, even if he does worse in iowa than he wants. john: there is a third question though that is related to the first question. is trump willing to spend money on this race? that's not just about organization. that is about ads. we still don't know the answer, whether donald will face an opponent like ted cruz and spending tens of millions of his own money to finance this race if he starts to believe he might not win. mark: there are pre-christmas some negative ads against cruz. john: i do not know. he is there he -- he really wants to win. he is also really cheap, proudly cheap, and he has said before if he doesn't think he is going to win, he would just get out of the race. he might not get out of the race

that quick, but he may think. mark: he is still the favorite until cruz overtakes him a little more. but it is getting closer, and cruz has extraordinary assets in fundraising and in super pacs, and an extraordinary, diverse coalition. it needs to be bigger, but he has got a real coalition. john: and a real past. mark: most of the attention is on ted cruz and donald trump, and the rest of the republicans in the race are feeling this, like the other movies coming out on the same day as "star wars." one of them is marco rubio. his campaign is putting out a new ad this week in iowa and new hampshire, and it contains an extraordinary litany of conservative positions. >> this election is about the essence of america, about all of us who see a lot of place in our own country. a government out of touch and millions of traditional values branded bigots and haters. is that wages growing slower than the cost of living, a generation drowning in debt, and the president humiliated by putin, iran, and islamic jihadists.

i am marco rubio, and i approve this message. because this is about the greatest country in the world and acting like it. mark: all right, john, we will be out in las vegas tomorrow for the debate. he is fascinating. that's incredible grab bag of issues. my question is, is rubio right now the third most likely nominee, the most likely to disrupt a two-person race, or is someone else in that slot? john: it will either be marco rubio or chris christie. i say this as a disclaimer every time i say this, i have been very bearish on chris christie every time i say this, but i think there is a better chance of chris christie winning in new hampshire rather than marco rubio winning. maybe if rubio finishes a strong third, maybe he will get a boost, and that will boost him in new hampshire. but today? today? i have this gut feeling that christie is in a better position than review because of his -- there and hisn

rise. stop the best chance to them, and the reason why i think that is rubio today is he has had some scrutiny, and he has withstandedd it -- it well. a bigill go after him in way. let's see if he can survive that or not. but i also believe that chris christie is not as strong in iowa as i thought. marco rubio may still be the top finisher in iowa, and that slot, top finisher in iowa -- john: there is no doubt it is meaningful, and i do not at all be little or diminish your point about scrutiny, but i do think there are a lot of republicans who will look at those guys and , marco rubio looks good on paper, and chris christie looks good in the flesh, someone who looks good, projects strength and adulthood,

maturity, and i know that sounds crazy to say maturity, but he has a gravitas. i think there is something about him. mark watch rubio in the debate : tomorrow. john the democratic timbers : from our iowa poll -- up next, the democratic numbers from our iowa poll. ♪

♪ john: the other big headline is on the democratic side. the last time we were in the field in october, hillary clinton had expanded her lead over bernie sanders in the hawkeye state. she is now at 49% to his -- 48% to his 39% of likely democratic

caucus goers. sanders still leads in the traditional areas of strength. who would be best in fighting for the middle-class class and in reining in wall street. mark, with the next democratic debate coming up on saturday in new hampshire, should hillary clinton, looking at this poll, the gold standard be happy with , these numbers or a little bit worried. mark: a little bit worried. the clinton people think the gap is the sweet spot between two ead, and too small a lead, which would look like panic. sanders thinks it is "fantastic news." she had a great run in the media, she had the debate, and sanders is within double digits. he is within hailing distance of clinton, and i think he can still threaten her in iowa. the key is

her organization. it is financed and energetic, but can it turn out voters? john: it's a sad octopus moment for hillary clinton. for this reason. we took a poll in october before she had that incredible run, and in the intervening months, they saw her ahead by 20, 30, 40 points. those were all ridiculous polls, but, again, i'm with the sanders cap on this. if she is not ahead by double is the one it december, thing we know is that any good run will be followed by a bad run, and the press will want this to be a battle. january, the polls will tighten. sanders is going to put a lot of money on the air, and i think you are looking at a margin of error, and that is not where hillary clinton wants to be. mark: but the enemy of clinton's campaign in iowa is complacency and feeling like their people do not need to be engaged, because sanders's people are energized

and engaged. john: i don't mean to say she's not the favorite, i'm just saying she should be nervous. coming up, our conversation with two former presidential candidate and what they said about the state of the 2016 race. we will be right back. ♪

♪ mark: earlier today, john and i went over to the palace hotel here in gotham city where , business leaders gathered to discuss national security, immigration, entitlement reform, and deficit reduction. it was a meeting of the group no labels. it advocates for centrist policies in trying to break through the partisan gridlock in

washington. we had a chance to talk to sell of the business leaders there about the issues that matter most to them in the context of the 2016 presidential race. >> i would say energy security would be at the top of my list. obviously, the right place with the deficit would you there also. >> job creation and growth, and world leadership. because the enemy is not within. we are competing on a global stage now. >> income inequality, the stagnation of middle-class income, those are central issues. those are not left or right issues. we may have a disagreement about the tactics or the programs to address those. >> simplifying the tax base. people don't believe that it is fair, either to individuals or corporations. it is too complex. that will support job creation if we had a more straightforward tax system. mark: no labels is run by two past presidential candidates, the former connecticut senator former manan and the

from utah jon huntsman. ,john and i sat down and started our conversation by talking about the 2016 election, with a little historical perspective. let's start with a little politics. you both ran for president in pretty raucous years. how would you compare this cycle to the one you guys were in? >> more raucous. this is unprecedented. when iran in 2003-2004, there were more than 10 candidate. i forget the number. but there are some comparisons with the republican race, and it was much more mood is divisive and bombastic. >> i would say the mood within the republican party is more extreme, probably driven by a sense that we are losing our place in the world, we are falling behind, and that the economy really has not been able to reset itself. pre-economic collapse. and so there is an extreme that, and it is giving rise, i think, to more

candidates who are bringing a more extreme message in terms of how they would deal with and address these issues. smaller field, more genteel conversation about the issues. big difference. john: you guys spoke on your careers in public service, in this organization, committed to common sense, centrist, pragmatic, trying to get to the middle in a lot of ways. >> right. john: when you look at this race, both on the democratic and republican side, do you have a cause for despair? >> my last years in the senate were the most divisive and least productive for the chamber. of my 24 years there, and it has only gotten worse, and that is why the country is so mad. but the answer to the anger is not to give them more reasons to be a great and devices -- divisive.

to find common ground and salt some problems. >> so we are moving toward problem-solving. that is the whole thesis is no labels. this admittedly is not a primary play. what we are hearing in the market, we are seeing a world away from what we are advocating, but we think we are on the side of most americans. in fact polling would suggest , that the american people want a problem-solving president, both parties to work to get a few issues done, and they want greater harmony in washington. what we are doing suggests that we may be ahead of the game, but whoever is racing toward the finish line on either side, democrat or republican, this is the message that is going to be a winning message, so we may be ahead in the game but i think at the end of the day this is what will resonate. john: it feels like your voice gets drowned out in the howling wind of politics. >> it's a problem. because the louder you shout and the

more extreme the content that you are shouting about the , more attention you get. mark: what about deficit reduction? >> you have got to have your foot on the accelerator. so if you look at the positive trend, i'd have to say that we have a new speaker of the house who seems to be a little more collaborative. he's expert in tax reform, which is going to be part of the whole scenario, so if you can imagine combining the work of our news with a new -- of our new speaker with a new president, let's just stop and think that we may have a window, and opening, a honey with period of 100 days during which they can get some work done, like we were advocating. you have the executive branch and the legislative branch doing a couple of pro growth things. it could really stimulate and spur the economy to do better than we are forecasting, which maybe is two point 5%, maybe 3% when the sun is shining. that would add to the revenue side,

which would be a huge boost in terms of overall deficit reduction. mark: in terms of economic growth, health care is a huge issue. the affordable care act. the president says it is the greatest achievement decades, republicans say horrible. ruining america. how do you evaluate where it two is currently, substantively, and what the challenge of the next president will have improving it and making it less of a drag on the economy? health care, in general. >> to me, i talk about so-called obamacare, is the best thing or the worst. but it is there. i remember when president clinton came in toward the end of the obamacare debate, and he said to some of us who are still uncertain about whether to support it, this system is so complicated, the status quo is not working. get it as good as you can get it in this session, but know you're going to come back every session

for the next 20 or 30 years to fix it. the problem is, when you are in the midst of a backbiting war in congress, you do not come back and fix it. the changes there are going tuesday. you are not going to repeal it. too many people are getting insurance who did not get it before. hopefully, people will work together and fix it. my worry about it is that some of the numbers have encouraged some of us to vote for it, which was if you had adopted the affordable care act it would be for the budget, they are not going to pan out. i'm worried about it. i have not reached a conclusion, but i am waiting to see. part of the problem is that some of the unpopular things that have already been stopped by executive action are the wines going into revenue. everyone wants the benefits and no one wants to pay for it, and that is where we have the humongous deficits.

i used to say huge deficits, but i do not say it anymore because it has been co-opted. john: the leading candidate for republican nomination is donald trump. donald trump wins the presidency in what does that look like? 2017. is there any way that a donald trump presidency could lead the direction you guys have here? >> i am trying to imagine some of the things he said on the stump, and reconciling them with problem solver presidents in the final stretch. although, in a recent conversation we had in new hampshire, he said, listen, i have worked in diverse groups and in complex areas. todays unable to consider i will be able to cross that , impenetrable divide. he used those words. notwithstanding the over-the-top rhetoric we have heard. john: did you buy that? >> his history would suggest he is a bit of both in the private sector. john: senator lieberman, the same question for hillary clinton, who is most likely the

next president of the united states. clinton. hillary clinton, as polarizing as she is, could she be a no label president? >> yes. i base that on knowing her for a long time. i have not endorsed anyone. i have been enjoying the cover of no labels. yes. i mean, her whole background, i watched it in the senate, particularly, and she was part of the clinton administration, so will she definitely? who knows, but she knows how to negotiate. she knows how to compromise. my guess is she knows how fed up the american people are with the lack of anything getting done in washington, so i think she can be that kind of president. mark: so those two guys are a model for what is in short supply, a centrist reasonableness. what was your sense of what they think will happen in terms of producing a president who can get stuff done? john i think they are doing a : good job of maintaining poker

faces, trying to pretend that they are not as out of step with kind of discourse we are hearing in the presidential race which they are. i think they are really out of step. i think they are really dismayed. we heard a fair number of business people, and some of them said, hillary clinton might be ok. she is running a little too far to the left right now but , there is nobody among the leaders of the republican race that makes anyone comfortable right now. mark: all right. our thanks to joe lieberman and jon huntsman for sitting down with us. more from the hawkeye state up nextmore from the hawkeye state poll. , why donald trump may be of more interest after these words from our sponsors. ♪ the only way to get better is to challenge yourself,

and that's what we're doing at xfinity. we are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. and this includes our commitment to being on time. every time. that's why if we're ever late for an appointment, we'll credit your account $20. it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. ♪ john: our next guest produces the gold standard of all polls.

because she is the gold standard of polls. ann selzer joins us now from her home state to break down the numbers. ted cruz vaulting to a large lead in the horserace numbers, but when you dig into the issues, it is even better for him in some ways. what did you find? ann: well, keep in mind, it is the largest leap we have seen in five decades we have been holding polling caucuses. trump's numbers are not much weaker than he was in october. in fact, he is two points higher. he stays in second place. it is just there is a different person at the top of the chart. mark: if we have trump and cruz going at each other and they try to pick up supporters, who has a -- pick off each other's supporters, who has got the better chance? definitely cruz

taking things away from trump. he gets 49% of trump supporters who said ted cruz is their second choice. it is half of that. there is no parity in terms of cruz supporters going to trump. mark: it seems an extraordinary number where half of those supporting trump would go to cruz. is that unusual? nn: yes, it is there a high, but it makes you think of what it is that they have in common, and ted cruz has really surpassed donald trump in some key areas, about having the best temperament, about having the most experience, and there are ways where he is the one, where people think across several candidates, that he is the one with the leadership ideas. the: we know how big bloc is.al

is there is essentially an iron grip on the evangelical community? well, he gets 45% of the people who say they mainly define themselves as evangelical conservatives. 45%. trump gets 12%. that is better than a 4-1 advantage. now ben carson gets some, but it , is still way over 3-1. in terms of that. that is a group that tends to turn out in higher than predicted percentages. so it is definitely a key group you want to be sure you can get locked in. john how does that compare to : mike huckabee and rick santorum's performances with evangelicals in the past two caucuses? neither got the majority of people who define themselves as being jellico's or born-again christians, but they got the plurality. that was one thing that led them to the top. mark: let's talk a little bit on a related topic, methodology.

our poll shows ted cruz with a big lead. there have been several polls in iowa. quinnipiac poll. fox had a poll. what explains the difference from ted cruz having a big lead in our poll versus trump leading or having them roughly tied? >> some had to do with the way they are sampling. i cannot go into it letter by letter. but what i did see in the it wasiac poll is surprising that they were in the field for 10 days. think about the things happening leading up to when we feel that our poll and cruz getting key endorsements from steve king, a congressman who carries a lot of prestige in terms of certain communities, and also from the family leader. bob vander platz endorsed him. that is something the christian coalition community pays attention to. they might have had too much of their fielding done before those events happened. john: on the democratic side, we have hillary clinton up by nine points over bernie sanders. what is there in the poll hillary clinton should worry

about? ann: well, that bernie sanders has not faded away. so what has happened since our last poll are things effectively putting the presidential question very much at center stage with a different look. looking at foreign relations, looking at terrorism, looking at all those things you want in a president. and he has not really backed off in terms of this poll. i think the thing to think about is he certainly is continuing to make his constituency feel good. can he make them feel safe? can he make them feel he would be the best commander-in-chief? right now, our poll says no. mark: i want to go back to the republicans for one last question, which is we talked about the great news for cruz. if you are trump looking at the poll, is there a clear path to try to come back and try to regain the lead?

ann: trump's numbers on certain key indicators are quite strong. they still see him as the doer. he talks about himself as the builder. so looking at getting things done, about managing the economy, dealing with illegal immigration, all of those things you want a president to do, he is far superior to even cruz's best number on that. so he has got that. he has a high percentage of his people who say they are locked in. he has got a majority of his supporters who say they would follow him to a third-party. this is not a bad poll for donald trump except he is not leading. john: ann selzer, thank you as always. coming up, ted cruz's super pac and donald trump strategy. we will be right back. ♪

♪ john: on bloombergpolitics.com is a story about how donald trump's candidacy has neutralized millions of dollars super pac's plan to spend in the presidential race. 2016 one of the outside groups still trying to take down trump is new day for america, which is supporting john kasich. they are going up with his new ad in new hampshire. take a look. announcer hippo-crite. :malarkey. donald trump repeatedly says one thing, does another. the hypocrite says he is champion of american workers but had his line of trump ties made in china. some of the laborers on his palatial hotel are illegal immigrants.

america needs proven, honorable leadership. john kasich. >> new day for america is responsible for this advertising. john: here to talk to us is kellyanne conway, running one of the outside groups for ted cruz which is taking a different approach. it is great to see you. i just want to ask you first to just comment on that ad and tell me about it, and if you say anything back, all of the hippo fans in the audience will be offended. llyanne: it is clever and very well produced. it keeps you on the edge of your seat as to who is supporting the ad before it runs. you find out at the end it is john kasich who should be the alternative to the hypocrite. it is probably poly word worthy or word worthy. i don't know if it is going to move the needle because there is nothing new content wise that people have not heard about donald trump. hillary clinton was at your wedding, you gave her money. your ties are made in china.

you change your views on core issues. i feel the voters have heard it all. it does not mean they will and up supporting him at the ballot box but they have heard , all of this. he did a clever thing early on. mr. trump locked onto the electorate and makes them feel that when he is criticized, they are criticized. they want me to be politically correct. you do not want to become letter -- politically correct, do you? mark: your friends with ted cruz. you're not allowed to strategize with him on the campaign because you're working for one of the super pac's. what do you think of the current posture he seems to have? as donald trump begins to attack him, he turns the other cheek as opposed to fighting back. kellyanne: it is classic ted cruz. people look at him as being difficult. he is quite magnanimous. he is disagreeable with things he finds disagreeable. mark, every single republican senator that got to washington, i guarantee you, at some point promising to repeal obamacare. we need something better.

one guy, one, of the whole body of them stood on his feet for 21 hours trying to stand between obamacare and final funding. so i appreciate the fact that when senator cruz is being attacked he decides to take the high road and look magnanimous. we following that in the super pac. we are sitting on professionally produced, lawyer-approved, contrast ads with three or four of our opponents. i'm ready to deploy them when we need to. mark: i will just say something parenthetically. marco rubio did something that is helping to derail obamacare in legislation that senator cruz has not done. but just on the ads, will you possibly run those before christmas? have you ruled that out for now? kellyanne: we probably won't. but we will see what happens. we expect everybody will gang up on senator cruz p he will have a target on his back beginning with tomorrow night's debate. let's focus on what the attacks are about. if they are about personality traits, it seems mr. trump's attacks are not coming from the left and not the right. he is repeating the same attacks

democrats often make about senator cruz. if senator cruz's campaign has to respond to every insult or slight or live for accusation, we will burn through our money trying to settle scores with people not telling the truth. john: what be the trigger to have you guys decide to launch those ads? if tomorrow night ted cruz decided not to turn the other cheek and started beating up donald trump, would that be the signal? we should probably drop the bomb. : if the repetition becomes reality, if people hear something so often even if it is not true that we feel we need to correct the record, we are happy to do that. our ads are funny. some of our opponents have given us great fodder to have fun with their past statements and records. i tell you there are deal , breakers to the republican caucus electorate that i don't think some candidates can overcome. if you have been for amnesty, it is going to be tough. john this gets to an interesting of you superat all

pac people have to deal with, which is you cannot coordinate. you're trying to look for signs and signals as to what to do. so is it more important what you are seeing in the electoral environment or what the candidate, the candidate you are supporting is doing in terms of , how he is conducting himself? kellyanne: great question. we try to do a combination of both. senator cruz is out every day doing things. he keeps a certain schedule. he will do a swing through the southern states. we saw that. we saw where he was going. we were in the field with polls and focus groups trying to figure out what people thought. we are very focused on super tuesday. we have a post-february strategy in our super packs. -- pacs. we want to be built for the long haul. we also have independent research. we have been saying he is seen as the reasonable alternative, the original outsider. but he is an insider. his day job puts him at the intersection of public policy and politics. for all of the hue and cry that

we need a governor and executive experience, you're not a lifer and not part of the cronyism, but you are there chairing hearings. you are they're doing stuff. senator rubio was there for two days in november. mark: luckily, senator cruz watches the show so you're able to share your data. john mentioned mike's piece that media matters more. does the money the super pac's spend really matter? or is it more about news coverage? kellyanne: well, we like to have both. the big disappointment in 2015 has been the very poor return on investment a paid advertisement. i mean, look. $50 million, it is a repeat of what happened to jeb bush, a repeat of what happened in we 2012. have these donors so disappointed. they gave millions to super pac's. mark: what are they getting for their money? kellyanne: they are getting what

they knew there were going to get, which is a multiplatform way to talk to the voters. so traditional techniques, like doorknocking or direct mail, phone banking, and more recent techniques like digital ads, text messaging, social media. we will have cable and broadcast when we feel it is appropriate. mark: who can be the nominee besides ted cruz? we have to go. who is on the list as far as who can still be the nominee? donald trump, marco rubio. mark: just those? kellyanne: maybe jeb bush if he hangs in and has some money and start backing up some of the bigger states. but you need a quality candidate. john: kellyanne conway, thank you as always. next, the honorable jennifer jacobs with new reporting on donald trump's iowa ground game after this. ♪

donald trump: i will tell you, you have one of the most dishonest right in your backyard. "the des moines register" is one of the worst, the worst. a reporter named jacobs, she is the worst breed she goes in, and she will write. is such a misrepresentation, so i do not care. so what i am saying it right in their back yard. mark: some reporter named jacobs. that was donald trump in iowa friday night talking about our next guest. from our perspective we disagree , with mr. trump. nobody knows more about i will politics better than jennifer jacobs. she is the political correspondent and joins us from des moines. jennifer were you covering that , event when mr. trump name checked you?

semi-name checked you? jennifer: yes, i was. some of his aides greeted me as i walked in. i had passed along a message for him that if he wants to know anything about our poll, let me know. so he knew i was there. mark: yes, so there is that. let me ask you about his ground game, something we have talked about for months. maybe the biggest question in politics today, which is can he turn out the people now telling pollsters they are for him? what are you finding about that of late? >> i decided to look behind the curtain. what i'm hearing is he reportedly has 55,000 names in a database, and those are all of whose names he has harvested from big rallies across iowa. even if he were to get half of those 55,000, he would perform well in the iowa caucuses. but our new i will pull, as you know did not show a big influx , of newcomers, newbies, to the iowa caucuses. i wondered if these people are

going to show up. that is the big question, right? i went to a training session. trump is just now starting to ramp up his training for precinct captains. those are some of the most trusted, insider, county leaders that speak up for the candidate on the night of the caucuses. they are really important. and about 90 people showed up for this event on saturday, and the interesting part is 2/3 raised their hands to say they had never caucused before or much less done any nitty-gritty organizing. it was interesting to see. mark: is that a good or bad sign? jennifer: right, that is the question. even donald trump is really disorganized and just now starting to recruit these really disorganized newbies who do not know what they are doing in the caucuses seven weeks ahead of the caucuses, or he is successful in recruiting people from all over the state who have never been in politics before who are then going to go out and persuade friends and neighbors to show up for donald trump.

john: i think back to the last iowa caucuses in 2012 where rick santorum, which as you recall well got very hot at the end. , ultimately won the caucuses by a few votes without much of an organization or ground game. is there anything in the santorum experience trump can look to and say i can do it, if rick santorum did it without a massive ground game too? ,jennifer: exactly. it is that organic response. when you're hot in the polls, when people are drawn to you, they are going to show up to the caucuses without a whole lot of herding. they are just going to naturally show up. mark: we have seen carson hot for a while. trump has been hot. now cruz is hot. do you see anybody else other who has thed trump capacity to get hot before february 1? jennifer: there are people in our poll who have high favorability ratings like marco rubio. he is well-liked by the likely

caucus-goers. chris christie rose the most in favorability in our poll. you know i think there's , probably a narrow path for jeb bush in iowa. not every caucus-goers, not every republican in iowa is an evangelical, christian conservative or tea party republican. there are more mainstream republicans in the state than anyone else. it is just that they do not tend to show up that much. if they were to show up, there would be a narrow path for him. who knows? who knows? john: jennifer, the big story last week was trump and his proposed muslim ban. we talked about it for the entire week and trump continues to do well in national polling. he has fallen back a bit in iowa but continues to show strength. what do you hear in iowa about that issue specifically from iowa republicans? jennifer: well, amongst his supporters who say they would choose him first for president, right now 73% favor that kind of , a muslim ban. but if you look at the overall

caucus electorate, they are split. about 47% say they do not like half, it. and 47% say they do like that. so what was interesting in our poll was we have 40% of likely caucus-goers who say they initially thought some things trump was saying needed to be said, but now they think he has gone too far. about 8% of likely caucus-goers do not like anything that comes out of his mouth. but he is clearly appealing to a base in iowa. our polls showed that, for sure. mark: we talked about vendor plats. congressman king endorsed. are there other meaningful endorsement still up for grabs? jennifer: well, if certain republican leaders start to get worried about ted cruz winning iowa, a guy who does not support the renewable fuel standard which is really important for ethanol in this state, and you could see some ethanol champions come off the sidelines, perhaps

the u.s. senator, perhaps the governor himself. if they are really worried about cruz winning, they might do that. mark: with the worry extend beyond ethanol or do those have other reasons to stop ted cruz if you look like he is going to -- if he looks like he is going to win question my jennifer it : is possible. but what they are saying privately is it is not good for iowa to have somebody so opposed to this important ethanol mandate to win a state like iowa. mark: it would be very interesting to see if anyone gets into this. it would be a game changer. john: they are powerful people. i wonder how much they would lose the electorate. it would be interesting for sure. mark: we appreciate it. you can check out jennifer's picture at the airport every time you go through. jennifer thank you. , we will be right back. ♪

john: we are on the television set twice a day at 5:00 and 8:00 eastern. we are live 24/7 on bloombergpolitics.com. when you visit the site, make sure you check out our tracker for the latest updates. mark: tomorrow's program live from the beautiful venetian hotel in downtown las vegas. really not downtown, but on the strip. we will be there to cover the republican debate. we will see you from the strip tomorrow night. until then, sayonara. ♪ the only way to get better is to challenge yourself,

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it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. yvonne: it is tuesday, december 15, and this is "trending business." ♪ they will be live in by and they need essilor. first, things we are watching this morning. oil prices under pressure, resuming his light after climbing back from a six year low. $35.s went below taking off, qantas is a

beneficiary of cheap oil, and says earnings are going to double in the first half. shares are up 52% this year, compared with a 9% fall for the kfx. -- afx. a minor problem. you collapse in iron or has pushed producers to the very edge. some are hanging on by their fingernails. let us know what you think of today's top stories by following me on twitter. include #trending business. let's take a look at how markets are doing. we are waiting any minute on the australian treasure on this forecasted budget blowout. here is heidi. heidi: we are seeing aussie shares in should need pairing, gains from this morning -- in sydney herring, gains from this morning. of 1%. 200 by 2/10 we are seeing the banks hanging on. the miners are continuing to get sold off on the