>> all eyes will be on center stage to see the two former allies go after each other. >> i think it is going to be big. >> who will attack first? >> maybe they will have a dance-off. ♪ what happens in vegas definitely doesn't stay in vegas . we are live at the venetian hotel, where, in a few hours,

the candidates will take the stage. poll today,ional all-timeump has hit an high, leading the pack with 38% followed by ted cruz. marco rubio at 10%. trump across the categories doing extraordinarily well. he leads in best personality, best chance, best chance of changing washington, he is seen at the strongest leader. he leads among men, women, college graduates in, liberals, moderates, and conservatives. he is seen as the best that handling terrorism. city shut los angeles down its entire school system after receiving threats. we will see what happens with that. since the last date, we have had

paris, san bernardino. the whole race has changed. national security is front and center. what do you expect? mark: everybody will try to show that they are the strongest on national security. every time national security comes up, people will strain to get in. they will chide project that they are the strongest. that has become the most dominating issue. ben carson was here a little while ago. i asked him, what is the biggest issue besides national security? he said, homeland security. he has realized that he needs to show that he is big on this issue. last time we had a cnn debate was in simi valley. they try to create conflict between the candidates.

if foreign policy is the lion's , there ishe debate not a wild distinction between these guys. much willon is, how this debate be about substance? how much is it just a personality clash? and how much they try to project themselves. this many candidates still on the stage, i think it will be tricky. in true las vegas fashion, we will discuss what is in the cards tonight for the candidates . the front runner was here last night at a rally where he teased ted cruz then held back. >> trump, 41%.

ted cruz, 14%. 41-14. i like him. here is how they announced, ted cruz surging. 41, ted cruz, 14. i said, wait, what is going on? bets are divided on whether trump will hit ted cruz tonight. do you think trump will feel under pressure? i think it is a false binary. because under pressure he is the front runner. impervioushas been to pressure. provocationsrious throughout the campaign. in most cases, he has benefited

from them. with this muslim dan raposo, he did something different. everybody else denounced him for it. how does that play out tonight? i think he will be under pressure on that point. mark: i think he is going to be more prepared than he has ever been. a strong debate performance tonight will not lock up the nomination but it goes a long way to position him as the dominant front runner. john: please don't say that. mark: but -- john: here is the other thing, he is feeling pressure from the fact that our poll is the gold standard poll in iowa. we have showed ted cruz and had by a lot of -- ted cruz ahead by a lot in iowa. onto ted cruz.

forte --x are his forensics are his forte. he knows how to attack moderators instead of his fellow republicans. he resisted striking back this week. tonight, one of them may try and succeed at forcing him. if trump or the moderators go to ted cruz to get him into fisticuffs, do you think he will react? mark: he will turn every cheek he has, because he is so confident that he is that there is no reason to turn the other cheek. i nothing anybody -- i don't think ted cruz will let anybody trying into a fight. john: it is a question of, ted has extraordinary

discipline. he has been disciplined and methodical. if a free-for-all emerges tonight where everybody tries to pile on him, it will be a good test for him. mark: he does not worry about looking weak because he can always attack the media or somebody else here he doesn't need to attack the others on stage. john: rationally, that makes sense. the only question is, when everybody turns on you in a way that has never happened, it is a test of discipline. mark: he has not been reluctant to attack marco rubio. if immigration is on the table, .e will hit rubio that brings us to everybody else. let's start with marco rubio.

he is not in the first tier. john: he has had good performances. he dispatched jeb bush in a proficient way. he needs to stand above the other people in the establishment. he needs to elevate his game and be that guy. mark: i am still baffled by how much he is fighting with ted cruz. let's see if he focuses on differentiating himself. all right, ben carson. what does he have to you? john: he has to convince the entire party that he has what it takes on those issues. he cannot -- he is already on a downward slide. he cannot afford to look like he is not sure of himself.

let me ask you about chris christie. mark: man, he is loose. he was joking about out wearing a tie during the debate. he just needs to replicate his performance in the last debate. he needs to show that he can take on the people ahead of him as well as establishment candidates. edc keep talking about middle-class. he is the only one that can do with national security and the economy without feeling jumbled. john: he has risen in new hampshire because his performance has been so good. .he big test will be strength if he keeps doing that, it will be good. mark: what about jeb bush? my god., maybe he will pull a rabbit out of his hat? i don't know. mark: he will try to avoid every question to say what he wants. the thing that he said from the beginning, he has to look like he is joyous and that he is

showing people his heart. he is to be himself. moment. has to create a he has not had a real moment in the entire campaign. it is getting pretty late for jeb bush right now. carly fiorina? mark: she needs to pick somebody and pick a fight with them. she has got to get back in the debate this evening. none of the other candidates have taken on ted cruz or trump. ton kasich needs to go back being john kasich, he has to stop fighting trump. john: there is still space for that. i feel the same way about rand paul. he could be the guy to differentiate himself most easily from everybody else. moments had some good in the last debate, he just is to amp up his distinctiveness. john: stick around, because we

have been dealt a really good hand of guests tonight. we have jonathan martin, dan both here when we come back. ♪

>> i built a phenomenal business.

i am worth billions of dollars. you cannot walk into the senate and call people liars and not be .ble to get along with people he will never get anything done. mark: that was donald trump over the weekend hitting ted cruz for joining us now to talk about the debate are two political maniacs, jonathan martin and jonathan hollis. how much are they candidate-centric? the ted cruz campaign is certainly one of the most candidate-centric. there is more staff input there.

i doubt that ted cruz will go off-topic during the debate. is that ted cruz will do everything he can in the debate. we know the moderators will push and. he will try to do his damndest. >> i agree. not that he is not his own strategist, but he has a smart staff that has a sense of what they are trying to do. they are executing on that theory and for that reason, i agree you'd i do think he wants to get in a public fight with donald. she does the candidate thing that a candidate has to do very well. debates,rough these one thing early on that impressed me that ted cruz was he looked right at the camera

and you knew who he had in mind when he was talking to the camera. he had a specific audience that he was drawing in. he has been consistent in that. >> you have to give ted cruz credit for his organization. the campaign has been dominated by the debate. it was inevitable that they candidate who first made his name in public life as a debate club champion will probably rise to the top. it is logical that a campaign dominated by these things would favor the guy who comes out of the debate club. donald trump has been a huge figure on the stage. does he go after ted cruz? he seems tentative right now. what is going on with them? >> they will try to provoke trumpet to do that. trump to do that.

the last couple debates -- except for rand paul. there were times where you could tell he was tempted to hit ben carson but he could not bring himself to do it. i think he is going to be restrained unless he gets hit. >> he is going to get hit by somebody. >> of course. >> i think you are right. both of them and probably have it in their minds that it is better for them if they don't carry this fight out on stage. what strikes you about the poll just released? >> two things. one, the degree to which the comments about barring muslims did not hurt.

it is what we have seen consistently with trump. this was perhaps the most condemned, he has made. he went to six points in the last month. continuingwas the vein of ben carson, which we have seen. somebody said it was a quiet implosion. the third thing is the degree to challenged is a very candidate. >> has there been a moment where the party leaders were so -- in apoll you had exposed raw, vivid way -- >> pretty incredible. thank you both. next, a rubio supporter joins us after this. ♪ john: we are here in los angeles

-- man, not los angeles, las vegas. good to see you. >> it is good to be here at the epicenter of the debate for the future of america. .ohn: this is it explain to us why you think marco rubio should be the republican nominee, in seven words. >> he is aspirational, he gets it, and he is good enough to meet the demands of a very

dangerous world. john: what does he have to you next to help his cause? >> she just has to be himself. he has been playing the, i am marco rubio and this is what i believe for america, and it has caught him into top three 30 will get him all the way. mark: do you think it is down to the top three? trump washit is now to lose and i think he is going to fall. he is not going to wear well on the voters in the long run. that means it is ted cruz or marco rubio. they are both young and quite frankly, they have similar experience. john: how would you describe the mood of the house conference as trump does well during the polls? what's amazing is marco rubio , ted cruz, donald trump, are

all angry about the same things going wrong and they all have a similar vision for america in the sense of where they think we should be. in the house, those of us who are angry about a lost seven , we find that we like what donald trump says in many cases about what is wrong. the question is, who can bring us together to fix it? john: does the conference of the trump and say, no? people in state after state, those who choose to be republicans are going to pick the nominee. as a member of congress, i get a vote like anybody else spirit if the american people vote somebody to be the nominee of our party, i will work to make sure that is a successful nominee. definitely as concern that if donald trump was

the nominee, he would have a bad effect. the house would be in jeopardy. do you share that view? >> the polls speak for themselves and 41% nationally is an amazing figure. when you put that into a general election, it gets cut in half. this is somebody who know paul says compete hillary clinton. most polls are saying that marco rubio can beat hillary clinton like a drum with voters who have not been putting republicans. mark: do you find that -- >> i hope to move his policies to where he can beat hillary clinton. mark: you choked about being at the epicenter of the debate. -- you joked about being at the epicenter of the debate.

has it been it more of a freak show? >> i have been honored to work with the policy team of marco rubio and he really is already putting together the kinds of questions and answers and discussion that are going to help us bring america back where it needs to be. ofgets it that the internet things is here while the government is not letting us is encrypted those things are so whether it is an issue like that or being very serious about national security in a way that this president hasn't been, marco rubio has been at the forefront of that and he is helping lead a discussion in the right direction. john: you made this point about aspirational. >> i think i named it first. john: it is also generational. , john kennedy, bill clinton, democrats often look to young inexperienced candidate. republicans do not do that.

it is hard to find an example of republicans embracing a young candidate. why the difference this time? >> he is at halftime during his life. has enough experience but he is looking toward the future. hillary is in the fourth quarter. who: why does the party does not like youth would change its mind this time? >> we have unfortunately told people it's your turn in the past with nominees and that has not worked out well. factor fact, we have a bunch of gatecrashers right now who have said, i am not waiting for my 70's tothey go from 40's. i want somebody at halftime looking at the next 50 years, i don't want somebody at the end of the fourth quarter, and that is hillary clinton.

mark: when agitated discredit hillary clinton? >> liar. ow.k: w i am optimistic that she will be defeated. i'm optimistic that the american people are going to recognize that somebody who circumvents security protections and has secret documents on her server are not the right person -- john: i have to cut you off your next, we have team ted cruz and team chris christie. ♪

the only way to get better is to challenge yourself, and that's what we're doing at xfinity. we are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. and this includes our commitment to being on time. every time. that's why if we're ever late for an appointment, we'll credit your account $20.

it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. ♪ >> i don't agree with these folks and congress including senator rubio who says that his vote does not matter anymore. that's why he doesn't show up. that is baloney. it is in china because he is running for president.

matter a more today than it did yesterday that it did today. we have not had a great republican president the whole time senator rubio has been in office. his vote never mattered with his theory. why was he showing up before and voting? that was governor chris christie taking a shot at marco rubio. he will be on the debate stage this evening. here is the governor christie senior strategist and representative from oklahoma. thank you for joining us. what you think the status of the ted cruz campaign is right now? >> he is in a very good spot. we are number one in iowa. nationally, we are number two. the numbers are on the rise. we are making a strong effort. we are all very positive about it. mark: what is the state of the

chris christie campaign? >> we are very optimistic right now, new hampshire numbers are on the rise. we feel like we're the right place at the right time. most people make their minds up in january and iowa and new hampshire, so we feel like we're moving up at the right time. cruz may be peaking a little too early, this has been the case in iowa for the last couple of cycles. cruz is pretty hot now and it is still more than a month away. >> mike huckabee's campaign -- he got hot pretty early, before christmas and he ended up winning iowa. we are in a great position. i'm very happy with where we are. john: what about you guys? you're playing a new hampshire game right now. you have any hopes and iowa? i don't know all of the eggs are in a new hampshire back skip.

those been more time in iowa going forward. say all the eggs in one basket. john: you don't worry that he finishes way down in the pack in iowa? >> it is a different race. we have never had as many people who could conceivably win the nomination before. the numbers are very different now. john mccain came in fourth or fifth in iowa before. it is a very long game. all of the campaigns are looking at so many strong candidates in the race here it is a well beyond the early stages. mark: people are talking about national security. creditubio has given often on being an expert on foreign policy -- is he? >> there's a difference between hearing things in the u.s. senate and chris christie doing things. he was a federal prosecutor. he is the patriot act. he stopped multiple terrorist acts in progress. he prevented them from happening.

there is a difference. i do know marco rubio's expertise is different -- the difference is having actually done it versus talking about an hearing about it. what you see is the major difference between national security and homeland security between marco rubio and ted cruz? >> i take this very seriously. against thevoted yuan freedom act which had a number of critical important authorities for national security. that tool has been used over and over again. marco rubio voted against it. senator cruz not only put it for, he supported it and cosponsored the bill. when it comes to national security, i think ted cruz has the edge in marco rubio. john: has you feel when you hear marco rubio hitting back against ted cruz on questions of foreign policy. they try to make and see my

grandpa. >> this is pyramid distraction. marco rubio is part of the gang of eight who provided amnesty for millions of people that are here illegally without securing the southern border of the united states. the american people are aware that a marco rubio -- that is terrible for national security. marco rubio knows that. he knows will be an issue so he is trying to distract people. mark: why is an outcome of so far very much? that he was on the gang of eight? >> i've been talking about ever since the bill came up. it should be an issue and is a major problem for national security. marco rubio voted against one of the amendments of that bill that would have provided 750 miles of fence that was required by law for decades. the biometric entry/exit system that has been required, by law, for decades. the ability of congress to actually approved that this is imported secure before providing amnesty package that marco rubio was pushing, that was an

important amendment and marco rubio voted against that. he was so committed to passing his bill with president obama that he was willing to forgo is very important national security provisions that a lot of us on the right one to make sure were in the bill. mark: donald trump when he was done by chris christie the other day -- they talked about the hug with chris christie and president obama. >> governor christie has debt with crisis like no one else on that stage ever has. he do with hundreds of thousands of people without power and people dying. if people want to criticize the way he dealt with a national disaster, i like to see them deal with it differently. that was the second worst natural disaster to that this country. he delegate the correct way. that is difference between him and everyone else on the stage. he has been tested. is is going to be a raucous debate? hope it is sensitive, but

no doubt, as we get closer to election day there will be differences of opinions. i hope it is substantive. we have seen other rates that have been lesser. cruz's perspective, he want to focus on the issues and believes that there is a marketplace right here and his ideas are the best. mark: thank you very much. we appreciate you joining us. when we come back, campbell brown and john ralston join us in sin city. ♪

♪ we are joined now by our

friend and cofounder of the 74 million.org, and dedicated crusader against saying the front runner, a.k.a. he who must not be named, named on television, campbell brown. we also joined by the crown jewel of nevada, political commentator, john ralston. you guys are keen observers of these debates. well be different about this debate from any of the previous republican debate? john: i think the most interesting thing, you guys know this, it is so dependent on the moderators. not only the questions that they asked, but whether they will actually let a real debate take place. not just a casual exchange. the whole cruise-ruby dynamic is the most interesting thing to watch. they clearly want -- i didn't know what the rules were.

that will be the most interesting thing to watch. donald trump will do what he was. ted cruz will not come back at donald trump. he will change the subject. -- ifuz in marco rubio they let them actually have a debate, that would be interesting. and ted cruz a marco rubio on the national security staff. ted cruz has a real vulnerability because of how he barehands rand paul and obama took certain extent on the agitation list front. the electorate has certainly moved in a more hawkish direction since then. defendto be able to that. marco rubio is certainly going to go after him. mark: how many days we are away from iowa and you're a big student of whether your stay contest is in fact in the big four or a stepchild to iowa -- john: that hurts me. mark: a two-part question. how well conditioned on the republican side do you think

they'll be influential? and who has an organization in the state? john: that's a key question, the organizational question. it is four hours or two hours on a tuesday night depending on what county you live in. it could be terrible weather affect unit in every county. except clark county. you really do need an organization. there only three campaigns organize your, ted cruz, and jeb bush whether or not that matters anymore. it goes into the narrative of tonight. ted cruz and marco rubio see nevada as important. especially marco rubio, he does not do well in iowa and until he gets to nevada. i do think that between ted cruz a marco rubio, and donald trump, he is showing up very well. i don't put much stock in most polls. certainly, pull the nevada before the caucus is have never been any good. donald trump starts tweeting out talk is -- caucus locations, that could be better than a

ground party. thing.: one other if ted cruz finally does this, despite the broke out between the dark lord and ted cruz this week, over what may have happened behind closed doors and whether ted cruz has authenticity. he says one thing to donors and another thing to voters. he was putting out a conciliatory message to try to defuse the situation. but, clearly, he has to decide if he comes under attack tonight, how hard and whether or not to push back. he has not come up until now, but i think there's an opportunity for him to really prosecute a case against he who shall not be named. for not being a conservative. nobody has done that or data effectively. john: you are now talking about donald trump. he will talk about donald trump will not use the word "trump."

let me ask you this question -- of all of donald trump revocations in the campaign, the proposed muslim ban is the most provocative. what we have seen since he proposed it was that most of the republican party is in favor of it, most of the country is against it, and most republican leaders are against it. so, if you're a republican, not saying that you are, but if you were -- would you be heartened to the fact that the republican faction is against donald trump or would you be depressed about the fact that 60% of the electorate thinks it's a great idea? cambell: i think we're in a moment post-severed adeno and post-parents were people are afraid. i'm not sure if you would get that same number i month from now. i think it is a moment that requires leadership. and somebody else to stand up and make a case for why things should be different. i think you may see that tonight. i don't think --

john: dear expect republican to denounce donald trump a week ago to take that argument to him tonight? i don't think they will do that. there is this craven behavior toward fusion not be named that goes on with most of the republican candidates. campbell says that we are in a moment, but we have been thinking that from the moment that donald trump announced. somehow, he has tapped into something. it may scare some of us and may not be leadership the way that we talk about leadership, and yet, he is still up there. we keep saying, ok when donald trump falls -- i think that there is fear among some of these other candidate that going after him is toxic to them. cambell: being a blowhard is not a foreign policy. if somebody gets on that stage tonight and is able to articulate a policy of what this country should do in response to what is going on to address those fears, that is pretty powerful.

i just don't think anybody has been a very effectively. john: i think marco rubio has done in past debates. i just think you're being too optimistic about what people really want to hear. the reason donald trump has gone as far as he has is because he is appealing to the visceral nature of a certain cohort in the republican race. mark: who is the most likely nominee? cambell: i would say marco rubio at this point. the ted cruz. john: i think marco rubio and then ted cruz. john: neither of them said donald trump. john: i still think it is possible. cambell: very quickly, 30% of the country identifies -- what are his numbers? around 30%? that is 10%. polls, you donal well in iola and new hampshire etc. john: campbell brown, john

ralston, you are both excellent and fun to be with. thank you for being here. we'll be right back. ♪

♪ >> as long as you're listening to me and not listening to -- we'll be fine. [inaudible] >> i do wish that. for a year i have been talking taking the caliphate away from them because that is what gives them the ability to carry out their global jihad.

finally, everybody is starting to -- we've been talking about taking away -- people are starting to catch up on that now. i wish people would pay attention when i say these things. no one something else as that. mark: you're emphasizing that you wish people paid more attention. >> we need to emphasize the importance of getting the moderate muslim community involved. they have to be the ones who are identifying the radical elements because that is the only way that we as a nation will so comfortable. mark: that was dr. ben carson just a short time ago. joining us now is the campaign manager. and former pennsylvania congressman and current supporter of john kasich or president, bob walker. thank you for joining us. i asked her candidate about a domestic issue that was not being discussed.

he named a homeland security issue, not how care or jobs or the economy -- is this all about national security? >> right now, we're certainly in a foreign policy, international security, domestic security interest. mark: what i carry through iowa? >> no. mark: do you agree with that? >> i think national security is the prime issue right now in the minds of people. it is really important that we recognize that the next president will have to deal with the issues that go will be on national security. jobs, economy, all of those. that's why we think we have the most qualified candidate because you do with all of those issues over a long time frame. be attractivewill to the american people. do you hear somebody from day one who can handle the issues. a questione ask you about your candidates. congress men, your candidate has an incredible record and resume

-- governor of ohio, all of that. why is john kasich not caught on more so? >> i think we are on schedule and we are on target, because we spot from the outset that we were going to problems getting the national name identification which a lot of these all-star. when you go to new hampshire, there is basically a tie among five people if you take the margin of air into account. we think we are playing very well there. we have a very strong organizational campaign and we are getting very good reaction out of our town meetings. 60% sign-up rate after town meetings. john: your guide for a little while as a co-frontrunner in the race to there is not a single pull out there that does not show him trading downward. what happened to your guy? race took to foreign policy which is not his strong suit, but he is getting there. four years ago, newt gingrich was in first place and the winner -- i don't really put a lot of credit --

john: they had not been the front runner and falling down to be the front runner again. once you're on the downward slide, is it possible to turn around? >> the key number for me to watch as the approval rating. it is skyhigh. best in the field. it continues to be the only republican that consistently beats hillary clinton had to head. if you look at the new york times, putting each of the candidates head to head in iowa, he beats all of them. i think we are fine. mark: do either of you think we will have a nominee by the end of march or was the longer? >> longer. mark: congress in? >> i think the nominee will ultimately be chosen by the people, but i hold out the chance that we could end up in a situation where the conventional actually but the candidate. mark: a donald trump wins early contest, will there be a closing of ranks? or will there be people looking to stop them about what?

>> i can't imagine the establishment will ever close race around him. 65% that are currently voting for an iphone or, perhaps, but the establishment, i don't see that ever happening. it is a long campaign. what we have seen in a number of campaigns is that the fact of a large percentage of voters out there who do not -- you could go to another candidate. when you go to the south, that will be one set of numbers and what you get to the midwest, that as a whole another set of numbers because a lot of those eight are winner take all states in terms of delegates. mark: is there a moment where candidate seems discouraged by the current state of the candidate -- current state of the campaign? >> i have not. >> we have 5 million facebook friends. one million donations. things are fine. if ben carson strategy for this debate different that any of the previous ones? >> he'll be more aggressive.

john: what about john kasich? >> not a lot of difference. he is probably going to emphasize national security credentials more than economic credentials in this debate. the fact is you want to look at this whole campaign as being about issues which need to be dealt with by the next president. mark: commerce and walker, thank you very much. we appreciate you joining us. thank you for coming on the show. we'll be right back after this. ♪

♪

john: that is that all from us here in vegas. if a bigger night for donald trump are ted cruz? mark: a bigger knife or ted cruz. john: we agree on that. mark: a big night for everybody. john: look at our website liberal politics.com for our coverage of the gop showdown and the debate report cards and every thing that we will do. until then, in the morning, would we see you again, tomorrow afternoon, and on the web in the morning. at 5:00 and 8:00 eastern, we are likely for seven on bloomberg politics.com, from las vegas, i have one thing to say to you. mark: he's running. enjoy the debate. sayonara. ♪

♪ i'm emily chang, and you're watching "bloomberg west." los angeles officials shut down schools across the city in response to an e-mail threat that they say originated in

fraser, germany. you are police say they got a similar threat and concluded it was a hoax. authorities say more than 900 los angeles campuses will be thoroughly searched before reopening. french police say that a delay nine euro man is being questioned in connection with the deadly attacks in paris. the man was arrested in his home in an eastern suburb of paris. his name is not been released. in attacks killed 130 people multiple locations across the city last month. secretary of state john kerry and his russian counterpart's a group of foreign ministers will meet at the yuan on friday to discuss a political transition in syria. the two diplomats met at the kremlin with president vladimir putin and are trying to narrow gaps in the american-russian approaches to the crisis in syria. trial in the manslaughter where a police officer is charged in the death of freddie gray says that they are deadlocked. the judge said keep deliberating. the jury sent a note to