bloomberg markets, it is 4:30 p.m. in london where markets are wrapping up their day. i want to bring in mark barton. we await the fed decision. mark: european stocks are registering the biggest two-day gain since october ahead of the fed rate decision. the european close starts right now. let's carry on, let's talk about what happened in the markets today. just a couple of hours since -- hours until the decision. to take youe going from new york to london in the next half an hour of london -- next half an hour. we are waiting this big decision and that has been a dominant focus. seem toes as well, we be taking a bigger and bigger hit here. mark: it has been amazing. oil is down, oil stocks are down, one of the reasons why we

saw the highs of the day, off was as the afternoon progressed. the biggesty we had jump, 2.8%. is, will bequestion european stocks rise after the fed raises rates? we look at things going back to 1987 and what we discovered is that yes, in the 2-3 weeks after stopped --ke it hike, stocks fell. it 2-3 months, a begin to rise. we had inflation up in the eurozone. this is big. newer area companies are hiring at the fastest pace in four years, that tells us that the economy will gather momentum. we are just awaiting the fed. betty: all right, as you had mentioned, the job state in the u.k., tell us more about that? mark: went interesting about

today's wage data is that it is a two-pronged fork. on one side you have the unemployment rate falling to the lowest it eight years, you have employment at a record, but it is not putting pressure on wages. average wages, excluding bonuses in the three months before october rose. economists were expecting a rise of 2.3%. that leads to the assumption view of thenforced year p.m. bank is not getting into a position of raising interest rates. unlike the fed today. betty: indeed. we are just a few hours now until the fed decision. before that, i want to check on the bloomberg first word news with pimm fox. pimm: china is criticizing the u.s. for armed sales to taiwan.

-- is going ahead with a deal that includes vehicles. threatens its relationship with both taiwan and the united states. in austria, police detained to citizens who are linked to the terror attacks. the suspects are believed to have traveled with one of the perpetrators. the two men traveled using forged syrian passports. is giving $4.4 laston to the victims of january's attacks in paris. people donated the money to the magazine after the company was attacked by gunmen. kingdom, two new telephone poles show british voters wish to remain in the european union by double digits.

that is in contrast to online polls conducted earlier this week. david cameron has promised a referendum on eu membership by the end of 2017. donald trump has lost a legal battle in the u.k. again. -- aop court ruled against wind farm near his golf resort. donald trump claimed the project would spoil the view in scotland. scottish courts had previously ruled against him. that is a look at the first word news right now. you can get more on these and other stories at the new bloomberg.com. i'm pimm fox. the fed day is finally here. let's talk about the divergence between the two central banks. the liftd does a good off, it will be a big thing in the coming year. betty: that's right.

mario draghi set the stage for if they do what everyone expects them to do, it will be the big theme. so what will happen with the tightening policy in the u.s. and the loosening one in the u.k.? joining us now is john micklethwait. in 2016,e a big theme what does that mean for us? john: it opens up a new era. you have america going in one direction, the european -- the eurozone going in another and in the middle, you have the u.k., an interesting test case about which side it goes. that is a strange thing. you haven't had that degree of divergence before. it will be hard if you are a european exporter, how do you look at that? as marc earlier was talking earlier about the fact that stocks look quite cheap at the

moment, maybe a cheaper euro will help? betty: what about here for the u.s.? been sothink it has priced in, it seems that we have talked about this for most of our lives, waiting for janet yellen to appear. it is almost ceremonial. you almost worry that given all of these times, someone will have given up waiting for it that there will be a lot of attention later on the rate rises people will think about next year. terribly like the days when we looked at the russian kremlin and try to work out by the people wearing hats. betty: when has it not been like that with the fed? john: this is true. is too much made of this

whole thing? many labels -- after meeting market vacations. some are already labeling the fed as a dovish hike. does that narrow the divergence? is it still apparent? john: to me, it is apparent. you can have a dovish raise against a hawkish cut. splintering those two things shows us how, located it has become. but there is a difference. one is dealing with an economy where people are beginning to expand and the other is still trying to unleash growth and that is difficult. mark: the bank of england is stuck in the middle. and the fed.e ecb there was the deutsche bank study that showed over the last two decades, the bank of england tends to follow the fed by three months.

that is unlikely to happen this time, isn't it? john: i think. the numbers on wages are a reason for the bank of england to wait. it is going to be one of those things. an interesting phenomenon happening across the world, the balance between capital of labor , you would expect wages to be rising quicker than they are. but they are not. that implies that something more structural in the world economy is going on. western workers are still worried about losing their jobs and therefore reluctant to push for the wage rises. mark: do you have faith in the bank of england? in the ecb's ability to get inflation back to their 2% target? over the medium-term? john: well they keep missing the target.

if you look at mario draghi and compare him with the economic finance ministers, there is no doubt who i would rather trust. [laughter] the people who fail to do the structural reforms that we need them to do. betty: getting back to the fed, so many people are questioning the timing of this. morning, and -- was saying, i thought they were going to go it months ago. john: maybe. the timing is so late. it, it willt do cause such a consummation, even for people who don't want them to raise rates. serious economic commentators are saying, don't do this. keep this thing in reserve. but it has reached a scale with the markets where if they don't do it it will be extremely problematic. as larry summers said, it

is easy to correct not doing it and actually doing it. john: the financial times take that view and also does other strident observers. for an economist, it is one picture but for the markets, it is another. betty: thank you so much. john micklethwait. stay with us for the full analysis on bloomberg television, bloomberg radio and on bloomberg.com starting at 1:00, 6:00 in london. we are awaiting the decision. ahead, how will european stocks fare after this possible rate hike i the fed? we will speak with daniel weston. outperformed 90% of his peers. he is up next. ♪

mark: welcome back to bloomberg markets. i am mark barton. when the fed last raised rates 600une 29, 2006, the stoxx rose. .nd it rose today history could repeat itself if the fed raises rates. betty: i thought you going to tell me something like, back in 2006, the friends episode had their finale, american idol -- whatever. anyways. [laughter] should have known. i know you are getting ready for the battle of the charts. let's get a look at the biggest business flash. -- having a one under 79 hour

marathon. the department chain will be open from 7:00 tomorrow morning until christmas eve. they think shoppers will make late-night visits after seeing the star wars movie. espn has suffered the steepest loss in response they are revamping the sportscenter franchise for mobile viewing and online sharing. sportscenter membership is down 10% this year. krispy kreme wants to move into starbucks territory. there are now doing more to promote coffee. location, workers are grinding beans and calling themselves for recess. themselves baristas. you can always get more business news at bloomberg.com. are the european stocks rallying

or just holding on to the gains? a lot of questions are about what happens the day after the fed raises rates. mark: when you remember the euro stoxx 50 is in track for the worst december ever, markets should soon fade. -- has dropped 2.4% on average. in the 20 days following a rate hike. losses have either reversed or eased in the three months following a hike. daniel weston, his global alpha 90% of itstched peers over the last month. , 12 months, and year to date. good to see you. i will find out the secret to your success in a minute. do you think european stocks aren't by -- are a buy? daniel: we are short stocks in

germany. europe is going to struggle. today will be a turning point for the dollar. we think today there will be a dovish retries and it will bring a weaker dollar which could bring up with strength in the euro and that will be difficult for germany. three rate hiking cycles, the dollar has fallen. history will repeat itself. how long will the dollar declined last? is that the big theme? daniel: i think so. this year we had the strong dollar, here, i think after the the market will realize the disinflation is still there. they have inflation targets and they will not be hit. they won't raise rates and the market will expect that the dollar will be weaker. mark: and on the flipside, what benefit? daniel: i'm am still bearish on

copper and oil, but i am long on the currencies. they have a lot of upside. inflation to me look stronger in ownda so i would prefer to that. it is in the headline yet, but i think relatively, i would rather be with the commodity currencies. happens, matter what with the ecb or a hawkish keys, is oil -- if that's going to be the dominant force? funny one. is a i'm not bullish on global growth. u.s.ere is weakness in the dollar, it will hit the commodity market and it might not bring them back to the 1970's with the oil price, but yeah, i think the commodity currencies are the ones to own rather than oil.

also, if the demand story is not there, what is going to be -- is it still going to be overall that the u.s. is the best house in the block? daniel: yes, i think the market shows that. certain times, i don't think the stock market will have a bad here next year, but i think the innovation companies and technology companies will benefit next year while the rest of the market will be slow. mark: the big trade has been short euro come along back. where does the euro had next year? daniel: i think they will both be dovish next year. i'd rather be short on the u.s. dollar. when a fund beats 90% of its peers, you stand out, what

is the secret? alpha fund success? daniel: we focus on four things. volatility, correlation between markets -- i see that the valuation is driven by expectations, price is driven by volatility, so we combine those and we stick to our process. we look forward in what is happening in growth. mark: january, you had a massive return. 10.5%. daniel: on january 2, we met long on the frank and we made for the month. with the euro? relativet is because inflation in switzerland was rising so we closed our short wind and we were still short on the euro through that time and short oil and long with dax.

you are up 21% in the last 12 months, 80% today. good luck in 2016. daniel weston, chief investment officer. do not miss our full analysis of today's the decision on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. starting at 6 p.m. in london. -- starting at 6:00 in london. rally we had a strong yesterday and we carried through until this morning. and then after midday, we are falling off primarily into what we saw with oil prices and the inventory numbers. abigail doolittle has more lies from the nasdaq. abigail: we had a big rally here ,arlier, we were up almost 1% sitting with all of the volatility that we have seen. it has been a difficult december here at the nasdaq.

commodities index down as much as 6%. the head of technical analysis this isy told me that indicative of overall market jitters around the fed decision. stay tuned there. on the composite index today is technology and apple in particular. this stock is on pace for the worst report in two years. there may bethat weak demand for the iphone. jpmorgan was out earlier saying that the possibility could cause fiscal second-quarter estimates to come down. the year, flat on slightly down after huge swings the volatility this year. investors may be waiting to see whether apple can meet current estimates for 2016 or not. betty: thank you. abigail doolittle at the nasdaq. much more ahead and the battle of the charts. mark: i'm asking the question,

what are the best performing assets since the fed last raise rates? is that when friends finished? betty: i think they finished in 2004, but it is only a guess. i am not a huge tv fan. [laughter] mark: stay with us. ♪

betty: you are watching bloomberg markets, the european close. it is time for the battle of the charts. we take a look at some of the most chilling -- most telling charts. ok. >> this morning we have fresh labor data out of the u.k. and one number stood out to me. this is the u.k. employment rate, not the unemployment rate but the flipside, hitting the highest level on record. pretty impressive.

the sadistic in the u.s. is the employment to population ratio. theonly is it way below u.k. employment rate but it is declining. so ironically, you think this thed be the m&a that has tight labor market, ready to hike, but that is not how they perceive it. the u.s. is probably going to hike today and the u.k. seems like it will be on hold for a while. betty: as we saw, the wages are disappointing. what is the best performing assets since the fed last raise rates? it,une 29, 2006, i charted we see 93 entities and i have looked through them all and i have stripped out venezuela because it has risen. is the white line that has risen 956%. in currencies, this is the

dollar in somali schilling is the best performing currency by 124%. i look to oil, i look at metal and russia's metal, and i discovered that gold since 2006 is up by 85%. if you want a gain, head to mongolia. betty: wow. with all of your energy, you made the screen shake here, so i will give you the win. mark barton gets it today. we will say goodbye, what do you have coming up? see you allyou, tomorrow. the fed is coming up, stay with us. ♪ the only way to get better is to challenge yourself,

and that's what we're doing at xfinity. we are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. and this includes our commitment to being on time. every time. that's why if we're ever late for an appointment, we'll credit your account $20. it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. >> it is noon in new york city. welcome to "bloomberg markets." ♪

from bloomberg's headquarters, i am david gora. the countdown clock indicates we are two hours away from the fed's decision on interest rates. investment sandel 6-8 the interest rate comes months too late. and look out uber and lyft. apple plans to challenge them and plans to use driverless cars to do so. i want to head to the markets desk with ramy inocencio. ramy: i want to talk about crude oil right now. it is at a session low right now. nymex crude is falling off a cliff. right here. right at 10:30 a.m..