mark: i am mark halperin. john: i am john heilemann. with all due respect, if you wanted to hear some rare and fine wu-tang clan for free, you could just listen to this. ♪ john: happy national maple syrup day sports fans. in our zoo tonight, trump lion,eons and the newest but first, a possible endangered

species, establishmentarians. ted cruz is thinking about his strategy beyond the primaries. this week, the texas senator kicks off his tour of key southern states, and he announced the endorsement of the influential evangelical leader. all this has donald trump headlining the headlines again. today the donald got love from russian president vladimir putin. he seemed impressed with his fellow alpha male when speaking to reporters after his annual and always delightful press conference in moscow. >> he is a very colorful person, talented without any doubt, but it is not our affair to to determine his worthiness. that is up to the united states voters but he is the leader in , the race and wants to move to a different level of relations to more solid, deeper relations with russia, and how cannot

russia welcome that? we welcome that. as for the internal political issues and the terms of speech which he uses to raise his popularity, i repeat, it is not our affair to evaluate them. john: all right. with ted cruz and donald trump only getting stronger and with none of the more mainstream republican candidates becoming a dominant force in this nomination fight, how likely is it do you think that throughout this entire race there will never be a dominant establishment frontrunner? mark: right now i would say that we could end up with a two-person race, and i think the odds are pretty good that trump and ted cruz have resources have a vision of how , they will get delegates, an early-stage strategy and longer-term strategy. they also have high poll standing. no one else has that. as long as the four establishment candidates are in

the race and sniping at each other than at donald trump and ted cruz they may through a , prisoner's dilemma cause all four to fail. john: there's no doubt the republican party has changed a lot. this is something we have talked about on the show for eight year now, right? so it is possible that everything will be different. the republican party is still -- the largest bloc of its voters are still main street conservatives and not grassroots conservatives. i cannot believe, especially as the fear of donald trump and ted cruz rises, that there will not be some coalescing around an establishment candidate eventually. i don't think it is 100% likely. i don't think it is guaranteed. mark: if you look at how well positioned donald trump and ted cruz are, it may be that they are so far ahead in momentum that they become basically the equivalent with the norm of the establishment candidate who wins early. it's not just one of them. if it was one of them, the math

would work out that an establishment candidate had to be in there. you say the establishment is the dominant force, i'm not sure it is. if you look at a lot of these national and state polls and add up bush, rubio, christie, and john kasich scores and you don't get to a big percentage, donald trump and ted cruz are rising and well-funded. john: it may be that the establishment is dead. i say it still more likely than not that there will be an establishment candidate around whom the mainstream vote coalesces. i think it is only barely more likely than not. there's no doubt that there is a chance that this could happen. mark: we will explore how this establishment doomsday scenario could play out on the calendar a little bit later in the program, but first, a secret newspaper owner case cracked. the las vegas review journal uncover the name of the previously unnamed individual who secretly purchased their

company a week ago, so who is this masked media mogul who has been unmasked? none other than of the most one famous and richest person in all of sin city, sheldon adelson and his family. the family confirmed finally to the review journal what has been rumored for several days, that they are the new owners of the biggest newspaper in all of nevada, which is an important early voting state in the presidential nomination, calling it "a financial investment as well as an investment in the future of the las vegas community." john, sheldon adelson is involved in politics a lot of ways, and he has yet to pick a candidate in this presidential race. does his purchase of the paper mean anything for 2016? john: not much. sheldon adelson is an important figure in politics, but mostly an important figure in the casino business. he cares about money, money, money most of all. this will matter a lot in terms of advancing his business interests in vegas, which are huge.

he hopes to be growing. the newspaper, its editorial page, now will espouse his views. who he sides with will get the endorsement of this paper. i just don't think that newspaper endorsements matter this much in this day and age. mark: it may not do anything before the caucuses, but it is a swing state in the general election, and you can imagine coverage having an impact over time there, and it is also a dominant paper. john: the main paper in the state. mark: the main paper in the state. if sheldon adelson were buying the des moines register, i think people would say regardless of whether there is a change in policy, that it is something to watch. and it is going to be watched by the people in the state. john: there is no doubt about that. if this paper turns into a newspaper web version of fox news where everything they do is seen through the prism of

sheldon adelson, who cares about republican policy and israel, there might be some of that in the general election, a small effect. on the democratic side of the presidential contest, bernie sanders rolled out two major endorsements today ahead of the next democratic debate in new hampshire on saturday night. one is from the communications workers of america union, the second is from democracy in america, the liberal grass roots group that grew out of howard dean's 2004 presidential bid. today in washington, sanders campaign also boasted that his campaign has collected more than 2 million contributions, a big number, mostly from small donors, and yet, despite some of this good news for bernie sanders there is still a wide , perception in the political class that he is doomed in the democratic nomination contest, that he has faded and will not get there. mark my question for you is how , genuinely dangerous is the conventional wisdom to bernie sanders? mark: in some ways it is the biggest danger to him right now. voters are sophisticated, particularly in early-voting states.

the democratic race is basically over. like any underdog, sanders needs people to believe that he can be beating goliath. right now even with this good , news, he's not getting that positive reinforcement. he needs a good debate. you know full well that his campaign is worried about exactly what we are talking about, because they send out press releases all the time trying to combat the notion that this race is not over. i still think he can beat her in iowa and new hampshire and have his moment to try to beat her. the other thing hurting him is these national polls, losing so badly, just as barack obama was losing. if he keeps his focus and can convince people he can win in iowa and new hampshire he can , get back in it, but the perception is hurting him now. john: there are two things, iowa and new hampshire are everything for him, to ignite enthusiasm. that perception is important, just to be able to get those

college kids to come out, you have to believe that he can win or they won't turn out. that is one place. the second place will be in new hampshire, where independent voters are a huge, important factor up there. if they all decide the race is over that will kill bernie , sanders. he needs those voters out there for him. mark: coming up, the things that donald trump supporters say. but first, a deeper dive into the republican establishments worst nightmare. we are back with that in 60 seconds. ♪

>> in the last 48 hours, we have been seeing the washington establishment in full panic. they are terrified. the last thing they want in the

world is for conservatives to unite, and so we are seeing attacks coming from every direction, as the old military metaphor says if you're not taking flak, you're not over the target. at this point, it is apparent that our opponents are very concerned. mark: that was ted cruz speaking to reporters in nevada earlier today. we already discussed whether it is possible that the conventional wisdom is wrong and that in fact there will be no consensus establishment candidate competing with donald trump and ted cruz emerging from the first three voting states and we could end up with , something the establishment would hate, a two-candidate race between donald trump and ted cruz. we wanted to test that. we wanted to see how worried the establishment should be. here is what we call our hypothetical establishment doomsday scenario. starting in the first voting stake, iowa.

has ted cruz is leading the field, double digits, then donald trump, ben carson and other establishment -- anti-establishment candidates. if they stayed where they are, the top three would be anti-establishment candidates, three donald trump, ted cruz, ben carson. the would lead establishment to a shutout. rubio is pushing there, particular john kasich, bush and christie, all pushing strong there. look at the latest polling there by wbur. it shows that christie and rubio are in second place behind trump, who still has a big lead. ted cruz is an a close fourth place, and his campaign is bullish on his prospects with the establishment candidates, all dividing the vote, maybe finishing in second. i think if donald trump has a rough start, ted cruz could finish first under some scenarios. that means that ted cruz comes out of iowa with momentum,

he leapfrogs marco rubio and christie, trump keeps his lead, -- ted cruzond first, second. that means the associate candidate gets third-place, and so they now have an iowa shutout, third in new hampshire. we go to south carolina, and south carolina historically voted for an establishment candidate every time in the republican race, but this time it could be different. look at the latest fox news poll, trump with a big lead there, 35%, carson is at 15%, he is holding on to a lot of his support there, he has got a fervent following there. then ted cruz and marco rubio are in third place. ted cruz has the momentum of his iowa-new hampshire finishes, and carson hangs onto his supporters in south carolina that means that marco rubio, jeb , bush, chris christie, john

kasich are shut out here. the final tally would be something that would terrify the republican establishment. this scenario would have no one, no christie, no marco rubio, no jeb bush, no establishment candidate no matter how high they finish in new hampshire, finishing in the money anywhere but that one state. that will not be a very good record as the campaign heads south to the so-called primary on march 1. john this scenario is far from , far-fetched, so what do you say about this fleshing out of the prospects of the establishment after three states voted? they would have no one to vote for except donald trump or ted cruz. john: i would say that it is a totally plausible scenario. the second thing, there are some alternative scenarios that are also plausible. one of them is that iowa and new hampshire where candidates get

, hot, marco rubio finishes in iowa or second place, then he gets a rocket ship ride out of iowa and wins new hampshire. totally possible. in new hampshire, chris christie finishes second in new hampshire, or trump tumbles in some way after finishing not just in first or second, but finishes third somehow in iowa, and the wind is knocked out of his sails. hard to see it, but not impossible. all i am saying is that there are other things that can happen here, right? this scenario is totally plausible, but for all of the weakness we talk about, i think we are more bearish on marco rubio than many people are. we have talked about various ways that marco rubio has not become the establishment figure. if you look at that scenario, and you are an establishment

republican you can understand , why many are attracted to marco rubio. he is the one with the path that could break up that anti-establishment doomsday scenario. mark: which of the states will he do second or better in? john: again, if he finishes as your thesis has been, a strong, establishment third in iowa, he could then bounce out of iowa and finish second in new hampshire. mark: or maybe even first. john: that is the marco rubio scenario. i understand why an establishment republican would like marco rubio for that reason. mark: two big questions. how durable are donald trump and ted cruz right now? could one or both of them have a collapse? i don't think so. there are fundamentals in terms of resources, message, following, and delegate strategy is so powerful, i don't think so, but the other question

is say that our scenario plays out, could it be at that point that the establishment says, we are betting all on one guy, everybody is getting out, and to heck with momentum. very few delegates have been chosen. we are going to fight on. we will start running favorite sons, if we need to. we will do whatever we need to. i think that is possible, but ted cruz and donald trump are momentum candidates, and they have momentum now, and they know how to take momentum and keep it going. john: they also are two canada's most impervious to turning in debate performances. they are the two most impervious to screwing up in a debate. you will see these candidates desperate to make a moment where those guys because they have momentum on the ground they can play four corners offense in the debates. donald trump, it does not matter what he does on the debate stage.

his strength maintains. and ted cruz is a good debater. mark: as panicked as the establishment was, this might make it worse. next what came first the chicken , or the egg? what i learned about the puzzle from donald trump supporters yesterday after this word from our sponsors. ♪

mark: interesting thing happened to me yesterday. i went to a donald trump rally in mesa, arizona. before he came in, i spent some time talking to trump supporters who were very enthusiastic to say the least. i chatted with them about why they like donald trump and what they were doing there at the

event and why they thought he , was winning and whether they thought it was possible that the republican establishment could stop donald trump. then donald trump got up to speak and it was déjà vu all over again. if there is one thing we know about this very unpredictable front runner is that his fans know how to stay on message even before they hear the candidate deliver the message in person from the stage. the reason is because they have heard it all before again and again and again. what are you doing here today? america greatng again. >> make america great again. >> we are really getting more and more on board with donald trump. >> the only reason i came here was because of donald trump. if it was anyone else, i would not have showed up. >> what are some adjectives you would use? >> bold. >> forceful. >> strong. >> strong. >> we need strong people. we need sharp people. >> he is a businessman. >> i am a world-class business guy. >> capable of handling the country as a business.

>> that's the thinking we need in this country. >> why are you here? >> i'm here because we are $19 trillion in debt. >> we have $19 trillion in debt. >> $19 trillion is too much. >> he is not politically correct, and i'm ok with that. >> i think i admire that he is not politically correct. >> it is not politically correct, but it will save everybody's life. >> what are some issues that he has staked out positions on that are attractive to you? >> immigration. >> we will stop illegal immigration. >> we have to figure out what , the hell is going on. >> he will make the military strong again. >> we will make the military so strong. >> that stands alone by itself, and the fact that he says he will take care of the veterans. >> we will take care of our vets. we are going to take care of them. >> being a military man, i'm

sick and tired of the way the v.a. treats us veterans. >> our veterans are being mistreated so badly, it is horrible. >> i noticed that when we traveled to europe they used to , think of us in such high regard. >> they had respect for our country. >> now it's like were looked down upon. >> we don't have that anymore. we are not respected by anybody anymore. >> i think he would intimidate other countries. i think it's time we have to take that power back. >> the message is, we don't want to let other people take advantage of us. >> he doesn't have any money from some bunch of hooligans. >> he is funding himself. ok? i amelf funding, putting up my own money. >> he is not traditional. he's not obliged to anybody else, the type of person we need to change things. >> have you seen him in person before? >> no, we cannot wait. sorry. >> very excited. experience had an

like that in my whole career going to a political event. all the interviews took place before the rally. they like him for the exact message he is projecting. they have internalized it and they believe in it. it is why trump says he has a movement, because you have a leader and like-minded citizens. varietyere have been a of times where i thought donald trump reminded me of pat buchanan. pet began and had a similar thing in 1996, where he had a pat buchanan had a similar thing in 1996, where he had a great stump speech, and the people knew there was a cultural war going on and they would say the same thing. that always analogized to the grateful dead, where people show up in the spirit of, they not only know the songs and all the lyrics, but they're overjoyed to be there in a carnival-like setting. mark: not everyone i spoke to agreed with everything donald

trump has said. sometimes they admit that he goes a little too far. when i asked them if any of the recent controversies bothered them, they shrugged it off and said, well, that is donald being donald. mark: has he done anything where you said, i like them, but he should not have done that. >> a few times. >> what kind of things? do you remember? >> i think they mimicking of that reporter bothered me a little bit. >> i wish he would not have done that. that cause me pause. you don't need to do that. you're great enough. you don't need to make fun of people. whether he knew it or not, you don't need to make fun of people. >> i think what he is saying is good, he just has a bad delivery. maybe the facial expressions, everything else is good. >> i feel like in a certain realm that he is a little cocky, but he has been successful. i think we need somebody outside the box, and that is where he is at. >> he is human. anybody that doesn't have a couple of skeletons in their

closet, they're not telling you the truth. mark: trump flaws priced into the stock by his supporters. they all said the same thing. they don't like everything, but they like the upside. john: it's not just that. even the things that he says that they think are objectionable, they admire the fact that he's willing to say them and he's not just a scripted, full-tested, canned candidate. mark: incredible. up next, we talked to one of the generals in the koch brothers army. tim phillips joins us right here after this commercial break. ♪ the only way to get better is to challenge yourself,

and that's what we're doing at xfinity. we are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. and this includes our commitment to being on time. every time. that's why if we're ever late for an appointment, we'll credit your account $20. it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. john: our first guest tonight is the president of americans for prosperity, the conservative group backed by the kochs. tim phillips, thanks for coming

back to the show. >> good to be here. john: i want to start talking about super pac's a little bit. the prevailing wisdom coming into this race was they matter a lot. so far, they seem to have left almost no mark. even though millions of dollars have been spent. what do you make of the super pac phenomenon? tim: i think a lot of donors are going to give a second thought to super pac investments. they are short-term strictly, no long-term value and you , cannot hold them accountable as an owner. , youan institution like us can hold them accountable for how they spend your money over the long-term. i think a lot of donors are going to look back at the summer of 2014 with some regret. summer of 2015, i'm sorry. john: do you think that is particularly true for candidates like jeb bush where a lot of money has been raised and spent already to negligible affect? >> i think about the bush campaign, the walker campaign, but i think a lot of donors will

rethink their approach. the old idea of spending 1000 groups every week and doing it 6-8 weeks to move numbers, it's just not true anymore. certainly for this presidential nomination cycle, it's not holding true anymore for anyone. , that is not specific to bush. no one has been able to move traditional buys. mark: do you know where charles and david koch are? tim: i don't. i don't have any inside information. mark: your donor community, how do they feel about the prospect of donald trump as a nominee? tim: you would have to ask them. for mr. trump, the key for him and dr. carson, those two folks who aren't known for their policy -- they don't have a record of voting -- the important thing is going to be as specific as possible with what they will do on tax policy. i think trump and dr. carson need to do more of that. at least rubio and cruz have

specific records we can look at. mark: most people in the donor network are business people. white wouldn't business people think a businessman would be good for president? why isn't there a groundswell to say, we've got a successful businessman here. he should be our nominee. tim: they look for policies. they say, what are you going to do with government overspending? what are you going to do about tax policy. it's more about the policy than the bio. mark: what hasn't he been specific enough on? tim: i think probably government spending and budgetary priorities, government cronyism. what are you going to do about wind and solar handouts or natural gas handouts? what are you going to do on government cronyism? that's a big issue that is getting bigger among free-market donors. it's helpful to have a voting record to look at so you are not just looking at statements of what i'm going to do. it's a combination of those two things. i think one of the more

surprising things for a lot of folks is that business people, it is thrilling to see a business person run, but they do want to see the policy agenda and have confidence that you can carry it out. john: let me press you a little bit on this question. we hear from establishment arians all the time who are panicked about the notion of trump or cruz being the nominee. i know you are not saying it's a blanket statement among donors, but there must be some fingertip sense that the business leaders who are big donors are pleased with the notion of donald trump or like the rest of the establishment, kind of freaked out. tim: we are staying out of the primary. we have proven that with our actions. we are not trying to influence it. we have had candidates who have come to different seminars or events, and perhaps, that gives a sense of who the board looks set in says, that's pretty free market. we are just not going to go there. mark: your network has thought a

lot about, some entities specifically related to winning more hispanic voters to the conservative cause. what have these candidates done in the context of the campaign to make it more likely that the eventual nominee will get a higher percentage of the hispanic vote than mitt romney did? tim: i think they are doing a better job of living and breathing in the latino community. one of the worst words in the political arena is "outreach." what does that tell you? i don't like that word. it ought to be, let's be in those communities. let's be selling our ideas day in and day out. mark: the candidates are doing a good job? tim: the conservative movement and individual candidates. >> which candidates are doing a good job on that? tim: i am thinking more in terms of americans for prosperity. i think marco rubio has done a lot of events in the latino community. i think jeb bush has done a lot of events. look donald trump has had , latinos speak at many of his

events. i can't give you a good judgment. i can tell you our network is determined long-term to impact that community and impact the latino community by helping them understand why economic freedom and individual liberty is the best path to the american dream, and we have our work cut out for us. the facts are on our side. mark: with the work you've done the last few years, will it have an impact on the 2016 cycle, or is a longer-term project? tim: i think it's a longer-term project. you have to build relationships first where there is mutual trust and respect before anyone listens to you. for us, it is a long-term effort. john: i don't mean to say incredulous. >> you are doing a good job of it. john: you are maybe the only republican i know who thinks two things are true, that republicans need to fix their position with hispanics and thinks that this group of candidates are accomplishing

that in any meaningful way. i've not heard anybody make that argument before. just on the merits and numbers we have seen, it seems like the party has done nothing except step backward from where we were in 2012. tim: that is a fair point. i am best qualified to speak on what our network is doing. we have a long-term determination to sell individual liberty and economic freedom in the latino community and every community. we will let the campaigns stand for themselves. i know there is a lot of talk about trying to reach the latino community. i'm not the best qualified to be able -- to determine whether or not we are succeeding, but there is talk about how important it is. for us, it's a long-term endeavor. mark: there is talk in lots of circles about you all spending close to $1 billion not on the campaign but program activities, , politics, things related to politics and social programs. are you on track to spend that $1 billion? tim: what you said is so important. it's not about some campaign. it's erroneous reporting.

mark: are you on track to spend that $1 billion? tim: we like where we are financially right now. a lot of donors look at us and say, they are held accountable by businessmen and businesswomen on boards, so the investment is going to be spent the way they say it's going to be spent. there is some kind of measurement, some kind of metric that gives us a great advantage , long-term in the financial community. i do think we are on track. john: tim phillips, thank you for coming in. mark: the $1 billion man. >> not hardly. john: i need to borrow some money. we will talk after this break. up next, we've got paul ryan's pitch on government spending and what house republicans are saying about his leadership. we will be right back. ♪

john: it is the holiday season, which means it is time for the united states congress to fight like a drunk dysfunctional family over how to best pass a $1 trillion spending bill. the house is expected to vote friday on a $1.1 trillion funding measure. here to talk us through paul ryan's strategy is our very own sahil kapur. tell us right now what is the state of play. sahil: right now, paul ryan and nancy pelosi, with the approval of the white house and senate democratic and republican leaders, have struck a deal that would keep the government funded through september 2016. it would adhere to spending levels speaker boehner and

democrats and the white house agreed to before the previous speaker jumped ship, and what this would do is attach some policy riders, such as ending a four-decade-long ban on oil exports. at this they are waiting for point, congress to vote. there is some pushback on some of these provisions, but it seems likely that this will pass. mark: i am fascinated by the public relations effort the speaker has been engaged in. he has built a very big and strong team of pr specialists. they put out a lot of press releases, and for instance, they have adopted this hashtag, #confidentamerica. the themes i'm seeing, ryan is succeeding with conservatives in ao succeeding bipartisan way, and also a notion of confidence. i wonder how you see the effort

to shape the image differs from the quality and quantity from the boehner speakership. sahil: i think you're absolutely right. paul ryan is a media savvy person. he has many media-savvy people around him. he will continue to do that in his futures. he is in his 40's now. he's been a vice presidential nominee. he has been in congress since his 20's. he may have presidential ambitions. he is thinking about the bigger picture here. in terms of breaks from speaker boehner, there were two interesting breaks i came by. one, he is engaging in a lot more communication with the right flank. relations had gotten so frosty between john boehner and the right flank that they ground to a halt. ryan is keeping them updated, texting with members. he is making his chief of staff available for questions large and small. this is making a huge difference for a number of people on the right flank. the freedom caucus said very nice things about ryan. they may not like the final product of this deal because it was ultimately a bipartisan had nice things

to say about ryan in the process. the other thing ryan is doing, he is setting expectations very well. he's setting expectations smartly. notice that there was no flareup, no debate over a government shutdown. the cause that the right was pushing, using this to block funding for syrian refugees, ryan didn't insist on this because he knew it wasn't going to happen. that is a big difference from speaker boehner. john: one of the things people said was that the underlying dynamics when ryan took over the speakership, the underlying dynamics in the house were still very much present, and eventually, he would have to deal with insurrection. what is it, beyond the things you just said, to the extent that things have changed, what has changed at the deeper level, or is -- does the caucus see itself invested in ryan's success in some deeper way? is that is what is going on? sahil: i don't think so. i think what the conservatives in the house republican conference want is results. they aren't going to get results

with president obama in the white house. they will not get results until they have full control of government. right now, we are in this interesting period where paul ryan has only been speaker seven weeks. he has built up a reservoir of goodwill and strong relations with the right flank of his party. he's in a bit of a honeymoon period. they realize that the the cake was baked for this omnibus spending deal, so they are giving him more room to operate and maneuver. next year, that is going to change. he will be facing the same problems that speaker boehner did. the question is how how well he manages expectations. john: a brilliant analysis. always great to have you on the show. up next, states are trying to block his panic voters from -- hispanic voters from reaching the ballot box. we will talk about that with an expert on the subject in 60 seconds. ♪

mark: new york times magazine virtual edition published a big story today about the disenfranchisement of hispanic voters in some republican-dominated states in the country. it is part two of an ongoing series about the importing issue of voting rights. the author of that piece, jim rutenberg, is here with us. tell us broadly what this series aims to do. jim: what it aims to do is look at the supreme court decision known as shelby and how it changed voting around the country, especially in states that used to get extra coverage under the voting rights act. mark: that decision took away years of a very elaborate series of scrutiny that the justice department put on a lot of

states who were freed from that level of scrutiny. what effect do the people most concerned about that decision, what affect do they see it having? jim: i think what they saw our new voting laws that they say a --they say if x voting, voting that , disproportionately impacts minorities, and these are laws that if they had been passed before the decision, they would've been blocked. maybe they would've gone forward. now they go forward, and courts have to catch up. mark: what do those laws do, and is it on purpose that they disenfranchise some groups more than others, or is it not by design? jim: the law didn't care if it was on purpose. the law was, did minority voting rights grow, or are they being knocked back down, the effect. proving intent is super hard. that wasn't the key thing. i am always loath to ascribe motives, but you see where it happens.

in the texas story i just wrote, you see where a law was changed in a way that helps somebody politically in a significant way. john: let's talk about the story , which is just out today and in the magazine this weekend. it's called "blocking the vote." texas has to be one of the most fascinating states in the country. for several cycles, democrats have said, demographics are on our side. the hispanic population is growing, and when it grows to a certain point, texas is going to go blue. jim: that's very important. hispanics voting, the turnout is really low. when you see these data journalists renderings, it's going to turn blue or purple here, what we instead decided to do was say, what if turnout stays low? it takes longer for texas to become competitive. hispanic voting rates are very low in texas, back to where jim

crow was for black voters, which i was surprised to see. if it rises, it is super competitive. if it doesn't it stays. , john: what is the reason for why those rates are so low in texas? jim: there are several. first of all, there is a cultural -- it is not in hispanic culture to vote, and there are a few different reasons. some people came from countries where there were oppressive regimes. some people came here and said, i got my citizenship, but i don't want to rock the vote. -- the boat. this is what they are telling me, but i sure there are social am scientists who are smarter about it. when you put in these things, you need an id -- maybe they have the id, but they are like, i don't know if i have it. they won't show up. then there is talk about citizenship and registration. you have to prove your citizenship when you register. so i think there is a lot going on. mark: when you look at elections in this country, there's always an undue focus on the presidential, but the things we're talking about affect state and local races. how will this affect the presidential race?

jim: in 2016, i think it potentially matters. there are three swing states that now can do whatever they want basically on voting laws that you couldn't have in the last election. those states are virginia, north carolina, and florida. north carolina is -- they are very important, but virginia, you've got mcauliffe in. mark: democratic governor. >> democratic governor. i think north carolina is the one that concerns democrats the most, but the bigger fight is going to be in the out years when demographic start changing. maybe some of these deep south red states -- the voting rights act mostly covered red states. you are going to see a lot of inion in voting rights in

non-section five states. mark: tell me about some characters in your piece. jim: my favorite character is a man named oscar del potro. he lives in a town where voting laws changed to set back hispanic strength. he said, you know what? i'm going to run for this office that is hard for me to win to show the anglo power structure that i am here and i'm going to compete. he is as pure of heart -- from what i can tell, so i'm a reporter -- he seems as pure of heart as i've seen. john: you did an earlier piece in the series that looked at an african-american community in the south. it's now about hispanics in texas. compare and contrast, in terms of the cultural factors, the legal factors, in terms of voting, participation rates. jim: that's a great question. i've been thinking about that a lot. for black voters and black civil rights movement it's got more of , a story, and it's got more of a leadership. so there is a lot more strength in that movement. the hispanic voting rights movement is much more diffuse.

an opener for republicans is, hispanics are not automatically democrats. they can be socially conservative when they are very catholic. the church doesn't play the same role as it does in the black civil rights movement. i think that's a big deal. john: the piece on the new york times website right now. it will be in the new york times magazine this weekend. jim rutenberg, thanks for joining us. we will be right back. ♪

john: after you finish watching

the show, go to bloombergpolitics.com and check out our campaign tracker for the latest 2016 updates, along with a fantastic story by our friend josh green about ted cruz's donald trump strategy. mark: tomorrow, president obama is headed to hawaii for his usual christmas vacation. on his way, he is going to stop in san bernardino, california and have a private meeting with families of the victims of the terrorist shooting. before he leaves washington, the president is planning to hold his year-end press conference. we will keep an eye on all of that and all the other news in the political world. we will be back your tomorrow. john: do think he's going to be jovial? mark: mixed and measured. thank you for watching. we will see you tomorrow. sayonara. ♪

♪ is friday, december 18, and this is "trending business". ♪ >> live in tokyo and mumbai, but first, here is what we are watching. running out of steam, asian to commodities and bank of japan's latest statement. a new survey makes a gloomy reading. economyation across the , a pervasive weakness is

disturbing. the fallout from the airbag has al, takata substantial impact on its steering wheel business. what you think of today's top stories by following us on twitter. underway, weesia have a look at the markets. a quick reality check today on this friday. >> that was a short-lived rally. we are back to declines across asia after two days of gains. investors turning away from that first that hike and back to the commodities. collapsingontinues, again. example,s., for