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tv   Trending Business  Bloomberg  December 17, 2015 9:00pm-10:01pm EST

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economy , a pervasive weakness is disturbing. the fallout from the airbag has al, takata substantial impact on its steering wheel business. announcer: from our studios in new york city, this is "charlie rose." what you think of today's top stories by following us on twitter. charlie: jennifer lawrence is underway, weesia here. she is an academy award-winning actress. have a look at the markets. david edelstein says she is a a quick reality check today on this friday. >> thre bask to declines across marvelous comedic and dramatic actress. and she can illuminate struggle and chaos to cultivate inner asia after two days of gains. stillness. this year she concluded her role as aberdeen in the hunger investors turning away from that -- katniss every deign in the first that hike and back to the "hunger games" series. commodities. collapsingontinues, again. example, thator
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is weighing on the sentiment. makes strength dollar-denominated commodities cheaper. we also have the yuan depreciation. so an 11th straight a of declines for the chinese currency, a record stretch of losses. that is weighing across the markets in asia. steep losses across australia. they are coming off earlier lows. minutes in the last few up by a 10th of 1%. a lot of coming through from southeast asia, these emerging markets expected to take downward pressure on the back of dollar strength as money moves out of the region back into developed markets on account of that fed tightening regime. movers,ke a look at the
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gold declining 2.5% overnight after strong gains . evolution mining down by 5.5%. ners really taking it on the chin today in sydney. anz, the big tanks uniformly down across the board in the city session. i want to check in on crude prices. , buttle bit of a bounce declined again overnight. losses extended 34. the asian session, 78. yvonne: thank you so much. to china now, easing measures target regions with a surplus of
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unsold homes. we are here with details. >> and improved situation generally, more cities in china seeing new-home price gains in easing measures targeting regions with excess inventories. rising and 33 of the 70 cities tracked by the government, compared with 27 in october. it had been rising consistently, then stimulus measures weighed in a bit. on september 30, new easing measures on first and second home purchases, and so maybe were seeing excess inventory work off. 10 cities in november so there new-home prices remain unchanged. generally, and improved scenario, perhaps proof that the easing efforts are working. we need to see more, but top decision making in china, the politburo on monday vowed to
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make reducing home inventories a key task of next year. the number of unsold homes jumping 12% in november from a year ago. been a difficult supply glut in third and fourth tier cities. that is hindering an economic recorder -- recovery. tosident xi jinping vowed dissolve property inventories. local governments are taking that to heart. has started subsidizing purchases with cash -backed plans. the district has twice as much unsold inventory than it sold in 2014. these are some of the policy changes that have happened or likely in the pipeline. 30march, and again september , the central government cut down payment requirement for first and second home purchases, and the politburo was urging more housing system reforms, including allowing migrant
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workers to buy homes in the cities they are working in. we can probably expect more tax breaks, subsidize purchases, and state-directed buying in the months ahead to work off these excess inventories, which is a threat to the economic recovery. yvonne: thanks. we'll take a more detailed look later on. we want your opinion, so please tweet us. this time yesterday, we were all about the fed. today, the boj. the14th and last meeting of year, and there is some ominous news in the air. we have all that and the odds on a surprise announcement. >> thanks. before i get to the boj, let's talk about two other central banks. asia,re central banks in bank indonesia and the
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philippines. to answer your question, odds of a surprise are very low. that's the result of our survey, 41 out of 42 don't think anything will happen. all but one -- they don't think the boj need to stimulus at this time. positive.een mostly tore is very little reason suggest the boj does need to act. potentially, a few things you might want to pay attention to, dollar-yen.
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click the board to look at this next one. comments on inflation, especially how oil prices, i believe our 35 -- we have rent 36.97.here at her t it takes up more importance in japan, the net importer, the boj quite far from its inflation target. they need to get to 2%, and they have 15 months to get there. that you have -- tuesday,a survey out the japanese corporate's have lowered inflation expectations through 2015. that could dampen future capital expenditures. finally, have a look at this.
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expect the government to take questions on the boj. it was bound to happen at some point. it took under two years to get there. that is when they started stimulus. their holdings are now just under a third of all outstanding debts held by the boj. that is something to watch. the devil is in the details, the decision and just over an hour if the schedule holds. you have that press briefing later on in the afternoon. yvonne: thank you. let's take a look at other stories we are watching. we have around up. >> 2015 is not over, but warnings that asian currencies are set for more challenges. all 10 major regional currencies will fall against the dollar for a third straight year, blame it on china. the slowdown is hurting asian neighbors. a source of been
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stability in the past, but markets won't have that and if it this time as yuan volatility is set to increase. patients with large deficits are particularly at risk. they are projected to decline. india's rupiah fares best. it is the preceding the least. emerging markets currencies are burnable to the rate hike next year. apple and china's union pay have agreed to ring apple's mobile payment system to china. union pay cardholders can attach their bank cards to their iphones, ipads, and apple watch, using apple pay. chinese regulators must first certify and test the apple patent system nationwide. they said the service will be available in the early part of 2016. apple dubbed it convenient, private, and secure. it will compete with alibaba's pay platform.
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the pharma ceo reviled has been arrested for securities fraud. the federal case suggests that he ran a ponzi scheme. he earned notoriety in september when he jacked up the price of a life-saving medication from $13 to $750. he is also known as a lover of hip-hop. he spent millions buying the only copy of the new wu-tang clan album. he's accused of taking assets from a biotech firm he started and paying off debt. he says he will be vindicated. best and the worst china deals this year. that is on bloomberg.com/asia. coming up, a third -- stern may be, why alibaba bab blacklisted if it does not do more to cut down on counterfeit
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goods. can the release of the new galaxy phone boost samsung's bottom line. more analysis is next. ♪
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yvonne: 2015 has been a challenging year for samsung come on pace for the lowest profit in four years. samsung reshuffled its struggling mobile division, where sales are falling. my next guest says that samsung's profit will bottom out in the first quarter. he used to work for samsung in there product marketing and sales division. great to talk to you. we look at this company, i mean, just the stock itself, you can see the trial centrifugation -- trials and tribulations that it
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has been through. these moves and these gyrations we have seen in the company and stock? >> there are two reasons, all about fundamentals, supply and demand conditions. in terms of fundamentals, samsung electronics expected to inognize 27 trillion yuan operating profit. if you look at consensus, you is 10nd that consensus trillion yuan, so the investors are not expecting any momentum catalyst next year. the second reason, as i mentioned earlier, the stock supply and demand conditions, global investors reduced its exposures to korea. they were right. the share price dropped a lot.
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bottom, and is struggling at the current price level now. yvonne: it seems like they announced this massive buyback program as well back in october, and we still have seen continual selling from a lot of investors. why do you think they are not positive about this news? this is related to stock supply and demand conditions. sometimes need to reduce exposure to samsung electronics, and they were expecting this kind of trading, so the company eventually announced its plan -- the right time to reduce their exposure to samsung electronics. they are right. along with inducing exposure to korea, so those are the stories related to share price
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performance. about thes it all fact that it did not meet expectations? there's not much presence in the wearable space? also some rumors about executive changes. galaxy seven, samsung is trying to change its strategy related to smart phones. once the company hit over 30% of the global smartphone market share, that since then, as of third quarter of this year, the -- next year, samsung is trying to grab more are could share or maintain its current market share level. to do so, the company does not screeny plan to increase size or any of those things. we call it a spec op --
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-- what happened to samsung market share next year, if they are the successful. it's good for the company. maintaining market share in 2016, and then there might be another critical change, for example a flexible display, bendable display, indicating the company can come back. shuffleds the business and shifted towards chips, it has already outpaced smartphones in terms of making real profit, and they make up half of total operating profit already.
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is that where we need to see where the growth is now? chip business is doing quite well. both 2014 and 2015, but starting q4, i think the absolute number of profit from the chip business to be diminishing. pc does not sell well, and smartphone growth rates itself is diminishing. siemensthat in terms of , i'm talking about growth rates , but they could be diminishing. expectinge are still the price to climb for chips in 2016. think about the smartphone makers strategy, they don't do any spec op, but they should
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lower their prices some more for people like us. continual pricing in 2016, but growth rates will be diminishing. the revenue growth will be negative for next year for chip business, and in that case, operating profit should be dropping. yvonne: continually getting squeezed out by the chinese makers as well as they lose market share in the mobile front. talk about the stock itself. recommendations, 47 buys, for hold, and one sell. our shares to relatively cheap? year,st of all, next , so it cancellation
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could be good, favorable for this share price. secondly, only we look at a yearly number as i mentioned earlier the number could be smaller compared to this year, however, on a quarterly basis, the correlation between share price and quarterly earnings is quite high for samsung electronics, so according to my analysis, first-quarter operating profit will be at the believe it so i should hit bottom in the first quarter. then it could come back, then the share price might have momentum. , buyback andield cancellation should be reflected calculations according to the financial textbooks, so if you include treasury share buyback and cancellation in the yield cut
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commission, the next year samsung electronics will be 6% yield. that is amazingly high. so why not? yvonne: after a tough first quarter, things pick up. thank you so much. we appreciate your insight on samsung. the stories making headlines around the world. beijing issues the second red alert for air pollution through tuesday. it says mark will worsen and may hit severe -- smog will worsen and may hit severe levels. >> concentrations of the most dangerous particles could be above 500 micrograms above the limit. directoranaging christine r will face trial for negligence and france. will face a lagarde
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trial for negligence in france. she denies wrongdoing and her lawyer says she will appeal the trial order. one of footballs highs high-profile coaches is out of a job. a man who called himself the special one left the club last season, but this time it has lost nine of its first 16 league games. hired him iner 2004, before firing him three years later. badne: we will find out how takata's airbag scandal is deflating demand. we will find that out next. ♪
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yvonne: struggling airbag maker takata told lenders that it's faulty products are affecting sales of other products it makes for the automotive industry. really great to see you. it seems like the fallout from the airbag scandal impacting the steering will business for takata. >> that's right we knew going into this story that the regulators in the u.s. and japan had essentially lost confidence in the ammonium nitrate propellant used to make its and fighters go off and inflate its airbags. this latest of element is not a reflection of lost confidence in their string will components or steering will systems. it is more of a domino effect, when you have to change the propellant within these airbag inflator's, you essentially are
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going to need to change the fit and specifications and size of the inflator's. that leads to a change in the airbag module and the model that fits within the steering wheel, so what we are hearing here and reporting today is this idea that there is a spill over in effect of the airbag issues having an effect on the steering will business for takata. yvonne: i have not heard too much about the steering wheel is is out of the cotta. how big of a chunk is it from the company sales? >> it is the number three business segment for takata behind the airbags, number two being seatbelts, not really affected up to this point, but when you combine number one and number three, airbags and steering wheels, that is more than half of their sales, so it is a substantial portion of their business now that the company is affected by this crisis, which has been years in the making and is another
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reflection of just what is up against the company to survive this. yvonne: appreciate it. thank you. more to come on bloomberg tv. you are watching "trending business". ♪
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home price recovery that is compared with 27t goverg unsold home inventory will be one of its key tasks next year. a survey on china's economy shows what it calls a disturbing deterioration across the volume, barring were all weaker.
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the bank of japan may be pushing investors out of the bond market thanks to its record stimulus program. the boj holds $2.6 trillion of debt. that is more than any other investor class, including financial institutions. is expected to maintain its active buying program after its final policy meeting of the year. let's take a look at what is moving the markets. >> the good news of the bad news? i will start with the good news. strong gains out of shanghai, chinese markets headed for the best week again in more a right 8/10 of 1%. we'll take a closer look at those in a moment, but elsewhere around the region, things are looking better than they were. the nikkei paring losses, down by a quarter of a percent at lunchtime. we are waiting to hear from the bank of japan on the military policy did -- monetary policy
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decision. hong kong also doing a little better, down by 2/10 of a percent. we are seeing modest gaze out of the kiwi stocks. ,eakness across southeast asia commodities and dollar strength, because that will take sentiment in terms of outflows expected to come out of these emerging markets in southeast asia. jakarta stocks for example down one and a quarter percent despite not reacting too much to that fed decision. let's take a lookmore detail ona moment. let's take a look at the chinese currency, because this is now day as they target regions with
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a surplus of unsold homes. we are here with details now. what are we seeing, some improvement? >> we are seeing improvement. new home prices rising and 33 cities in november, nearly half of the 70 cities tracked by the government, an improvement from october, proof that the government's relaxation policy is working. this chart will tell you how it is working. in march, we had the relaxation from the government on central property. peakingses,ut that started to dissipate and wayne. so what happened on september 30? the central government stepped in with more cuts to ease restrictions, then 33 cities. week aboutear this to make reducing new home inventories a key task of next week-- the politburo this
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set about to make reducing new home inventories a key task of next year. even president xi jinping has vowed to dissolve property inventories. yvonne: thank you so much. i do have one more question. we had a pessimistic china facebook. -- beige book. book surveysbeige about 2100 different companies in china. they are seeing economic conditions deteriorated during this current fourth quarter, more so than the third quarter. all weaker in the fourth quarter from the third quarter.
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it contradicts some of the sentiments we have been seeing in the official monthly numbers that showed signs of stabilization. book is showing "pervasive weakness across the chinese economy and also dismal performance for the shanghai economy." every region we can on quarter, except the central and western parts of the country, where the central government is encouraging investment. the summation here is that the chinese government needs to reform or bust. the whirring signs for the effectiveness of monetary easing, six interest-rate cuts, seeping into the property market. the shares of companies borrowing the client to a record low. nnlet's get some insight on china's prospects for the next year with our next guest. chief investment officer with the insurance company, aia group. let's talk about fed first.
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we saw the euphoria shortly afterwards in asian markets. looks like they hit reality now. in,all, this is all priced but 2016 is what we need to look forward to now? >>meing were starting to raise the quiddity. led by wall street, of course, we still somewhat of a relief that the decision have been taken and we saw risk assets perform well immediately, so for three days we had some good performance, but i think reality is now sitting in. that emerges between monetary policy in the u.s. and elsewhere, the impact that has on dollar strength, and what that means for emerging economies. mmodies priced in dollars, so commodities have come under more pressure with a stronger dollar, and many of the emergency economies are linked or dependent on commodity prices. of the emerging economies are linked or dependent on commodity
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prices. there's uncertainty in terms of how the emergence plays out. yvonne: they say it is a diversions -- dovish rate hike, but they seem to think the pace of these hikes are going to be a a lot less than what the fed is projecting. o dovish?rket to do look at what they're oj work our way through the year, if we start to see the base effect come through in the inflation figures, falling oil price fall off the series, and therefore the effect of inflation looks more pronounced, the market will start to believe that the fed needs to act more aggressively in order to raise rates. that is the fear as we work our way to the year, the fed will fall behind the curve, and that's a risk in the second half
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of the year, and that divergence that we have between what the market is discounting and what -- is playing into that theme as well. yvonne: we also see what is in play overnight, the dollar is the favorite trade 2015 back. what does this mean? is this something we continue to look for two or is it running out of steam and what does that mean for the fx in asia? contextg historical into account, the simple analysis would be that the great increases in the u.s. will be followed in this region, but of course we have rather weak economies across asia, and therefore as we saw and the case of the tie once and for bank yesterday, taking the opportunity really to stamp authority on the situation and lower rates just at a time when the fed is raising rates, so that will probably be a behavior that we seen repeated across the region come' with indonesia following suit soon. ,hat diversions will continue
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weakness on currencies, and of course that plays into this other thing we have been watching through the course of 2015 trends coming out of exporting nations, particular in this region with china and other exporting nations in this region leading the charge. yvonne: should i be selling equities or with a christmas rally continue? high, chinae a tough yearvolatn and then cameiod, some capitalist toendou get investors back to these markets, but there will be opportunities based on that volatility. markets are not particular expensive across a region with one or two exceptions come a so we are still contract of -- constructive, but taking our
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time about going back into these markets. seems tohe government think that we are seeing stabilization in china. expect usarket, we mobile market, what ever that means. >> what we are seeing with china is this shock almost of a dramatic fall in gdp growth. came toional investors the realization that it was effectively a hard landing in china. we saw dramatic recalibration or d rating of the market coupled with the fact that as we know a lot of that bull market was field on the back of margin lending, margin accounts, so that all unwound in a short. t time, and to make matters worse was that the dilation on the currency, so that source is largely removed now from asian markets. as we gore seeing now forward, unlike what you just reported on that beige book and we are more constructive on the chinese economy.
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we see that we have hit the bottom and are seeing stabilization and growth as we move through 2016 and the opportunity for a smaller upside surprise in terms of growth from china. there are many challenges, of course, but we think they will be overcome, and with stimulus and monetary easing, we see the stabilization working its way through. yvonne: what is the one risk as you look into 2016? is it the high-yield market? is it the falling yuan. four rs with problems. these are fairly idiosyncratic risks to relate to what is going on over all in cheap credit, cheap supply of money, and we don't see contagion spilling over into the corporate market, but of course we are seeing tremendous outflow from emerging-market debt and high-yield markets in the united states, which will continue. the question of liquidity mismatch between the funds that people invest in and the fund's ability to raise at short notice
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if we see an outflow, whether or not that filters or spills over too another effect remains be seen, but our sins is that it is contained in we won't get contagion from that. perhaps a bigger issue is that the fed balance sheet, all the rates are going up, they will hold the balance sheets stable, but made have reverse repos, which will create more capital in the financial system globally and in the u.s., and in the case, it may put pressure on corporate debt or make it harder for corporate debt, which has been used as collateral in the u.s. during this time when high-grade government that was not available. yvonne: we appreciate your insight here. thank you so much. coming up next, forget santos naughty list, the u.s. government -- "trending business" is back into. ♪
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lay outtoshiba could its reorganization plan on monday. the company has been undergoing an overhaul since revelations emerged that it has been padding its books for seven years. what are we hearing about these possible changes at toshiba? japan comings in out with different headlines about what might possibly happen as toshiba moves towards making an announcement about its restructuring. they are considering spinning off its flash memory business, setting up a subsidiary to take over the chip making business. the subsidiary could be listed. they call it a spin off, but actuallyit would be a way of gee
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unit to raise funds independently for development. it has not made any decisions on its spinoff. they are looking at ways to improve the competitiveness of its flash memory business. other headlines coming out this month saying for example the nikkei saying that toshiba could 7000 jobs in its consumer division. today, the possibility that it could re-sign another 1000 employees, maybe moving people to other departments. -- could reassign another 1000 employees, maybe moving people it will be in next couple of weeks, very soon, even if not
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monday. a lot of talk about what the possibilities might be for toshiba to move it sell ford. yvonne: there's opportunity to make something out of this cr. could use this opportunity to have a take rebound in the industry and try to slimline its operations, selling divisions, talking about selling some units. at wayso going to look to handle those. toshiba makes a lot of things. as well,lear industry and is also involved in semiconductors as well. it is trying to raise cash. it has to pay a record fine to japanese regulators of $60 looking for a is
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way to spin a way some less profit-making divisions to raise money. yvonne: thank you so much. and in the of the year naughty , alibaba has been warned that it is at risk of being included on the notorious markets list unless it does better at fighting the sale of counterfeit goods. what is the danger to alibaba of getting on this list? actual financial penalty, but it is a step back effort to combat this reputation it has developed for harboring fake goods. is one ofation -- it the biggest risks to its longer-term ambitions of expanding abroad, courting u.s. merchants, european merchants,
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and perhaps one day international customers. seen the company quite defensive about these accusations coming from the u.s. and other groups as well. has put feels that it in a lot of effort over the years, but the reality is that other sites, consumer to consumer, has millions of listings that makes the task difficult. say the perspective of apparel and footwear association, they have the resources to stamp out piracy on their services come a but haven't. yvonne: what can they do? they have stepped up their lobbying firepower in washington dc and elsewhere, beefed up the team with people with expertise in talking to government, and in dealing with lobbyists. -- critics would argue
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that they're not doing enough because they feared losing business to other chinese sites. thats feel that perhaps they are losing sight of the game because they're diverting their attention and resources -mall, where quality control is easier to execute. yvonne: thank you so much. coming up next on "trending business", new regulations from the central bank. details after this short break. ♪
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change the areindian lenders wl
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way they calculate a key byerest-rate to ensure cuts the central bank are passed on to lenders quicker. we are live in mumbai. tell us more about these changes. banks will soon have to price their loans basedbank e lending rates more responsive to policy changes. they would have to calculate the lending rates based on the cost. that will likely make it cheaper for new borrowers. reserve bank of india hashe repeatedly emphasized on rate cut's being passed along to consumers this year.
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lending rates have come down this calendar year only by 60 basis points. by allowing banks to move to the new system for fresh loans and giving them the option to state within the base great system for existing loans, lenders will be spared a one-time hit to profits. the indian ranking sector struggling over the last few years. it has moved from a benchmark prime lending rates system to a base great lending system. they want to make sure customers benefit from the rates. back to you. yvonne: improving the transmission and transmission -- transparency of these rates. thank you so much. let's look at what is trending on social media. ofwere following the arrest
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the pharmaceutical executive arrested thursday by the fbi in new york. -- become infamous for price gouging drugs. he has denied fraud charges. he is free on a $5 million bond. the 32-year-old has earned a rare level of infamy, brazen online, attacking hillary clinton, and in his personal life. this case has nothing to do with the skyrocketing drug prices. repeatedlyed of losing money for investors and then lying to them about it, taking assets from one of his companies to pay off debtors in another, classic securities fraud if the government's case is to be believed. he maintains his innocence and says he will be vindicated. twitter is alive with comments today and reaction to this.
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he was reviled universally in many ways because he jacked up prices for aids patients for drugs they critically needed. one person writes, trade off, you can hear the wu-tang record, but you will be in jail for star wars. what is that mean? he bought a copy of a wu-tang clan out for $2 million that nobody has heard before. office, new york field tweeted the following. that resulted in a lot of people responding to that. they did not have a search warrant to seize that. yvonne: he paid millions for that. that's it for us here at "trending business". see later.
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