mark: i'm mark halperin. 'm megannd i megan murphy. mark: on the show tonight, trump versus clinton. the new hampshire about in rubio doubt. but first, lindsey graham is out. today the senator from south carolina announced his suspension. graham was never expected to be a tight one in this race and he chose to leave on the last day you could get out in time to have his name taken off the south carolina primary ballot.

in is exit interview with cnn, the only candidate who is left in the 2016 race of military experience claimed credit for influencing the debate. >> i staple come my way on foreign policy. this last debate, i felt -- ok, those people did it. if you are running for president of the united states and you don't understand that we need more american ground forces in iraq, then you are not ready to be commander-in-chief. i intend to be a commander in chief that can win a war we cannot afford to lose. the isolationists in our party are no better than obama. if you want to win this war, follow me. mark: he got good marks for his debate but they were underdogs. is here right that he influenced the contours of the discussion, and what happens now? megan: one of his impacts -- absolutely. there is no question that lindsey graham was talking about isis as the defining foreign policy of the time, long before

san bernardino. hewas the most firm on it, said 20,000 ground troops, and he moved the rest of the candidates around. it will be interested to see if he can take up that mantle. i think we will have to see where supporters move. whether he wants to play spoiler or haymaker. if he wants to play spoiler you will be all after trump and ted cruz. kingmaker, to play we will have to see who he and john mccain go behind. mark: i think they will go to someone eventually. they are worried about someone who can find trump and cruz. none of them want those guys to be the nominee. he wanted to shape the debate more than he did. he thought the party went too far to the right on immigration, on abortion. you have leading candidates -- he said that was a huge mistake. i think the fact is that while he was hawkish, he has not got another candidate the way he was. megan: that's the thing.

especially now as we see with syria, weats over will have to see if anyone picks up that mantle, looking at the realistic impact of how we will combat isil. if we go in on his strategy with thousands of ground troops, billions if not trillions of dollars, that is a huge commitment. how the american people feel about the troops coming back injured and wounded. mark: the other thing that happens now -- not that he was taking up that much space, but he was taking up some, and there are a lot of activists to pick up sides. they're going to be choosing at a time when graham will spent time over the holidays thinking about what he will do next. they are all getting calls today, other candidates try to get them to take sides. megan: and it looks like christie, rubio, or bush may take them off.

mark: so lindsey graham is out. that is one fewer person for donald trump to spar with, but don't worry, there are plenty of people who want to battle with donald. this week the main combat and seems to be hillary clinton. the front runner clearly had trouble her mind on saturday night democratic debate. >> donald trump. mr. trump. donald trump. he is becoming isis's best recruiter. they are going to people, showing videos of donald trump insulting islam and muslims in order to recruit more radical jihadists. mark: there is no evidence that anyone had seen the islamic state using a video for propaganda. trump today asks clinton for an apology, first on twitter and then on "the today show." >> whether it is whitewater or the e-mail scandal, she always lies. you are talking about people dying, making up takes and

videos which don't exist. her spokesperson last night made the statement, and i think she said she was sorry. she said the videos do not exist. her spokesperson said this. so what am i going to tell you? i would say this, matt. i would demand an apology from hillary. you can be the messenger. i will demand an apology. she should apologize. mark: so trump asks for an apology, and we asked the clinton campaign -- will she apologize? snnifer epstein asked, whos aid "hell no," clinton will not be apologizing to donald trump. so megan, the two of them clearly want to fight. is this good for trump, clinton, or both? >> it's smart for both of them. when you look at her, one of the stories iseported

how much his surge has helped her. know is talking about her e-mails, all they are talking about is what he said. here she now has this perfect pitbull to go after, and she knows he will respond. for her base, it's perfect. for separating herself on the rhetoric, whether or not that falls away is to be seen. for him, its perfect as well. he has the rest of the candidates attacking him, and now he has got someone to hit back on so no one is going after him as much. manus: and it freezes -- mark: and it freezes the race to some extent. there is also a weirdness in the polling. a lot of polls ask who is most likely to beat hillary clinton and they will say trump. but in a general election audience, he is behind. if he effectively battles with her use more likely to show republican seeking go head-to-head with her. megan: i couldn't agree more.

it makes him look more electable. he's not the fringe guy, both of them have dumped, in he would be the clear front runner. mark: trump has shown a gift for knowing how to attack people. now he is talking about whitewater and -- i think he can show to republicans who are skeptical, trump has been devastating. he attack lindsey graham, graham died. he attacked scott walker. i think that can help him. so trump and clinton are hitting each other. meanwhile, marco is taking hits not just from the media and not just from fellow republicans, to but followed republicans that -- but fellow republicans to. he has gone from a golden boy to fal fatally flawed candidate. he was first criticized for

staying vague on issues with abortion and same-sex marriage. is a suggestion that he is trying to cut corners in his campaign, skipping out on facetime in early voting states, not building much of an organization. the dean of the political press corps said this on "face the nation." iowa ishard to find -- not his best day by far. the new hampshire is a model. muddle. south carolina doesn't look too good. a leafy with nevada. of the first four states, nevada is the fifth in importance. mark: so there is this new meme, rubio's doom. is a going too far? megan: it is one step ahead of itself. he had a big bogged in the polls, but there is no question

that he is struggling in terms of knowing what kind of candidate to be. he is a lot of talk, from a rant to foreign policy. -- from iran to foreign policy. is he repeating the same message over and over? he is not coming across as getting down and mixing it up? i think that is beginning to hurt him in iowa and new hampshire. mark: if there were another establishment candidate doing well, i would say this would be a gigantic problem. it is still a problem, but right now few said who was the establishment personnel will do best in iowa, you would say rubio. carolina, who knows, but it could be rubio. for all this positive press, he's not raising that much money, he's not an internet sensation, in poll numbers aren't really got -- and poll

numbers aren't really going up. i think this meme is going a little too far. it's still unorthodox, it's about running a national campaign. megan: i think you hit the nail on the head in the sense that he has had a treasury all along of waste, waste,it's waste. we are in a cycle of what people have tried to protect simply have not washed, whether it is money or jeb. if he waits to long to show people who he really is and what he thinks it will be too late. mark: the sound of a few prominent donors come his way, but he is not coalescing establishment support, and he is not going against kristi. -- christie. one thing a lot of republicans i talked to is that rubio -- will he be able to fight simultaneously christie,

cruz, and trump? they don't rule it out but they want to see if this guy has the sharp elbows and the instinct to me cap people. -- to kneecap people. onto another establishment candidate. today's chris christie's 55th day campaigning in new hampshire. with lindsey graham out of the race, that puts chris christie in the lead as candidate with most face time. it seems to paying off. says that his numbers have more than doubled since november, and the fight to be the dominant figure -- the question is what are the unique advantages he had? megan: he's a brawler. he will not let go. if he can stay away from the scandals that have tarnished him in the past, if he can make his case directly to the voters, there is no one better at retail politics.

this guy holds a town hall every day. he as a position on everything. he speaks to true conservatives and true independents. a really jumbled field in iowa, if you deliver is that solid performance, for me is well-positioned. mark: i agree. another advantage he has is his family. has done more events than anyone but chris christie. up.kids and father were his closing argument is really good. werew a couple of aunts big, enthusiastic crowds -- he knows what he wants to say and he took on rubio, cruz, bush. trump a little bit. come january he will incorporate more of that message, not afraid to contrast himself. he's ready for people to come after him on his jersey record, on linking arms metaphorically with president obama.

he's ready to talk about bridgegate. this is a guy who understands the endgame as well as any candidate. megan: and people forget what a great debate performance he has had. one of the things that has worked for him is looking directly into the camera and waiting, i am speaking directly to you, don't listen to this senator mumbo-jumbo. i'm telling you the straight talk. he is trump without a lot of the bombast and package and inflammatory rhetoric. mark: two governors were campaigning this weekend and it will be interesting to see if he goes up in the polls, whether the washington establishment, which used to like him, will they coalesce around christie? if he comes out strong, will they come around him? i'm surprised how little there has been -- they are running a lean campaign, the fundraising is not as robust.

megan: wall street money is there for the taking for him. up, we will talk about some of the highlights from the democratic debate in new hampshire on saturday night, and we will take a dive into president obama's interview that he recorded with national public radio. we are back. ♪

mark: we talked about the race to be president last segment, now let's talk about the man who has seen the light on the other side of the presidency tunnel, barack obama. todayinterview on npr taped before he headed off to vacation, the president reflected on the state of the country and the state of the

2016 race. here's what he said about a changing nation and about the frustration he knows many americans are feeling. >> when you combine that demographic change with all the economic stresses that people have been going through because of the financial crisis, because of technology, because of globalization, the fact that wages and incomes have been flatlining for some time and that, particularly, blue-collar men have had a lot of trouble in this new economy where they're no longer getting the same bargain they got when they were working at a factory, able to support their families on a single paycheck, you combine those things, there's going to be potential of anger, frustration, fear. some of it justified but misdirected. somebody like mr. trump is taking advantage of that.

that is what he is exploiting during the course of his campaign. mark: so what do you think the president clearly interested now in critiquing trump? megan: i was very surprised by this conversation. i think that plays right into the trunk fan base. by discounting what these people are feeling, their fears about immigration, their wages being stagnant, we see high,ation slide to a he is a real concern for people who have been disenfranchised by the economy. people who are wondering how they will pay for nursing home, childcare. when the president says this is misdirected, that trump is exploiting that, that is no help for him in terms of positioning himself as the man who is going

to lead this economy back toward the place where these people feel safe. mark: one of the things i have the most of the for presidents on is they have to balance optimism and concern. this president who was a cool, rational figure and big thinker, he wants to emphasize that things are getting better. he thinks that is the right way to lead. and he gets criticized for downplaying too much the danger. i think his view of trump is the view of a lot of elites. in new hampshire this weekend i talked to several republicans trump, butike they all said they get what he is doing well. he is talking about people's fear, not just isis at the economic issues, the security of their kids. it will be fascinating to watch the president's critique of donald trump and hillary clinton's as we go forward, and whether they are at odds. megan: the administration has

said they will not let this rhetoric stand, that president obama is going to make that point. echoing theis he's voice of the liberal media, the whoa elite, of people cannot understand why someone like donald trump is having the surge he is having. it's because he is among the first to really fight for that economic core of the party, to really say i will make america great again, both in terms of what it can be, what it was. whether or not it is true in terms of job creation and growth, it is a whole different matter. but there is no question that a broad swath of the public is buying what he's selling, and if president obama and others refuse to a knowledge that, they will suffer. mark: trumps message is a big part of 2016. we will be right back with some big memos from the democratic presidential

debate in new hampshire. ♪

mark: saturday night, the democrats had their third debate on the cycle. including hillary clinton, who arrived as she left the clear front runner. she also had some clear moments where she may have hurt herself. >> we now finally are where we need to be. we have a strategy into commitment to go after isis, which is a danger to us as well we finallyon, and have a un security council resolution bringing the world together. my analysis is that you were going to have to get more taxes out of middle-class families. mark: any event a problem? megan: that quote is going to hurt.

she says she was referring to the u.n. resolution, but that was what the soundbite -- but that was the soundbite for republicans. mark: i don't think they will be her on scandal and gotcha quotes. they are going to need ideas. let's talk about bernie sanders. he has this to say about foreign policy hawkishness. >> our differences are fairly deep on this issue. iraq,agreed on the war in we both listen for the information from bush and cheney. i voted against the war, but i think -- and i say this with due respect -- that i worry too much that secretary clinton is too and anto regime change little too aggressive about knowing what the unintended consequences might be. yes, we can get rid of saddam hussein, but that would destabilize the region. yes, we could get rid of

gaddafi, a terrible dictator, but that created a vacuum for isis. yes, we could get rid of assad tomorrow, but that would create another political backing that would benefit isis. m mark: do you think that helps is -- mark: do you think that helped his cause? megan: in the general, this helps her in terms of where she stands. this will be a runner. mark: i thought the language was too hedged. you sometimes maybe goal of bit too far. he needed a sharper message. make on thent to iraq war and foreign intervention, but not crisp enough to break through. megan: she is too good, especially on wall street. mark: speaking of that, sanders tried to separate himself on foreign policy, but on wall street, clinton argued that she would be better in raining in some of the excesses. stands fore of us

the kind of economy that will work better for every american, and is that means taking on wall iseet, i have a plan that tough and comprehensive and praised by a lot of folks who say it goes further than what both senator sanders and governor o'malley -- mark: so one of the interesting things in the polling as of late is that she's doing better compared to sanders on who deals with wall street. he still leads her but she has cut the gap. voters are saying she should be even more effective. megan: i think it is glass half-empty, glass half-full. many people know nothing about shadow banking, high-frequency trading, putting criminal action is something that resonates but she says she will bring in a lot of break up the banks. has done a masterful job of

crafting her plan. it is tough but it is tough and esoteric areas. mark: she is not often compared and political skill to husband, but on dealing with these issues she has shown a certain dexterity. she says she wants to represent everybody, people who are successful but also still struggling. a lot of for donors on wall street don't take this rhetoric seriously, but if she is going to win, she needs to do it in a way where she get something from everybody. coming up, we will check in with our resident polling expert, ken goldstein. ♪ . .

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it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. >> we are here with ken goldstein. thank you for coming.

we have some new pulls out over the weekend. i don't you give us a lay of the land in iowa and where we stand now. ken: what was interesting about the iowa poll is that 10 crews was up by 10% -- ted cruz was up by 10%. u gov has him up by a little more. there has been six or seven pretty well-respected polls in the last week and a half, including our own bloomberg poll. almost all of the variance in and donald trump are doing can be explained by how my evangelicals you have. evangelical. 40% in new hampshire, when it comes

to republicans, it looks about exactly the same as we are seeing in the polling average. crews and rubio are basically tied over two to one. when we look in the democrats again, it paints a different picture than we are seeing in the averages. in the is up big averages in iowa. iowa.p by five in in new hampshire, bernie is up by more. evangelicals on the republican side and young people when you are paying attention to democrats. mark: independents can pick they vote in.

who might cast a ballot in either one leaning toward one contest or another? ken: that is another one of the difficult things in new hampshire. i'll be the first conversation i had with mark halperin were were voters going to go for bill bradley were john mccain way back in 2000. independent more voters, that probably helps trump. i don't think we are in the where trump and sanders are competing for those same. people all the time who say their first choice is trump and their second choice is sanders. ken: that's something for us to pay attention to in that new hampshire polling. what happens is iowa becomes the race for those independent in new hampshire to decide whether

to thent to go republican or democratic poll. emerged aspolicy has one of the issues animating this election. but about the economy, where our people gravitating? we all pay attention to the horse race and i'm as guilty as anyone when you first get the numbers. asked what a general election electorate would look like and asked people about whether they feel more asked do youre and think you have a shot or no chance of things going your way? by a margin of six to one in the wrong direction, people think things are fixed in terms of the economy and by a greater margin. mark: fixed meaning rigged, not

cured. there is no national primary and they give you a sense of where the candidate stand. trump was thought by the establishment to have a ceiling. more like in the mid to high 30's come approaching 40. is there a reality that trumps floor turns out higher than we thought? there was a 15% discussion and it keeps going. as much as we say there's no national primary, at some point, nationalve 40% in numbers, the state numbers are not independent of that. guilty of looking

toward the fall -- even though drama onall of this the republican side, the irony is it is a nomination worth having. number,t direction the lowjob approval in 90's, it's hard to win a third term. thing she will have going for her is she will get to run against a republican. we are looking at it rubio or looking at trump, we have seen her really come out. he was the only republican candidate mentioned at the debate on saturday. is she looking at those numbers on a national level? my: i wonder, and when i get strategic re-conspiracy theory had, i think donald trump helps

donald trump in the primary. maybe i'm thinking too much. i'm sure she would prefer to run against him. what we are going to see is we don't understand much. democrats vote for democrats, republicans vote for republicans. we don't know how they are going to react, especially as we have financialthe deep insecurity and security insecurity. cbs is doing are not the kind of polls -- do you trust the methodology they are using? yes. but the record is not as strong as the probability sample pull we believe in and, what is also interesting is there's a study

--s morning where they did trump does much better than he does in life collar bowls. is that because of -- is that because people are embarrassed to say they are for trump? they showed it was a social desirability. trump did much better in the online poll. online, three things -- automated -- trump does better online. >> we have been burned by this polling before. people don't say what their real instinct is unless they think no one is watching. do you think we have this glitch solved in terms of polling? in iowa and new hampshire, we are five or six weeks out. in 2008, everyone

remembers obama was up in the poll. it was an eight percentage point swing. the previous week, obama did eight percentage points better. trump's that is right, popularity is being understated rather than overstated. hybrid.a is sort of a is ao write it down and it little more public. the democratic caucus is different from the republican caucus. in the republican caucus -- in the democratic caucus, people go into their corners. >> when we come back, we are going to have more and talk about ads. ♪

>> we are back with our ad expert, ken goldstein. let's talk about ads, in particular, let's talk right to rise. in this cycle, we have not seen the effectiveness of a super fact -- super pac that has put in $40 million. talk about why that hasn't happened. an: it's interesting and little weird for someone who has studied ads their hold life. $120 million has been spent in total. $40 million has been spent on the right to rise at home. run, we should say, by mike murphy who presumably

understand how to sell jeb bush the product and yet -- ken: one could argue it could be worse. massive spending in iowa, new hampshire and playing in some of the sec primary states and not much evidence that it is moving poll numbers. we all agree trump and cruise are the top 2 -- trump and cruz are the top two candidates. much,per pac hasn't spent they are keeping their money and they have a lot of the bank. donald trump has spent $200,000 on radio. that is it. >> he doesn't need to spend when second ononed every every political show, including this one. is this the moment where we see the break as far as what we are

going to see in future elections? ken: i will do my flip-flop -- yes and no. i do think something is going on. we are just not seeing spending move the numbers. even though i've studied advertising my whole life, i understand it matters at the margin. free media is going to move the race. spent $12inton million and because she gets much more for her money because she does the candidate rate, do we think -- name one hillary clinton add. sayonly thing of caution i clintonis the sorbet to the -- cleanse the palate. i want to go to this big

graphic about media markets. there are 24 new hampshire voters, three in iowa. boston podcast television is expensive and highly inefficient because you are advertising to people who live in massachusetts when you want to be hitting the people in new hampshire. talk about the manchester market. talk about the ad spending there. broadcast are two stations but wn you are is getting 90% of the spend. on have $12 million just them you are with more booked. want to buy abc world news tonight, 1500 bucks for 30 seconds, if you get 30 minutes of someone talking about you, do the math.

city, western iowa, more republicans buying their. mix ofmoines, there's a democrats. or $70$60 million million books in iowa and new hampshire. up, our reporter talked to 100 trump supporters in iowa. what he learned when we are back in 60 seconds. ♪

>> we are really getting more on board with donald trump. click the only reason i came here is donald trump. >> he's not traditional and i

don't think he's obliged to anyone else. he's the type of personal need to change things. >> have you ever seen him in person before? >> it very exciting. the: those were more of conversations i had at a trump rally last weekend in arizona, which brings us to our story today by john mccormick who spoke in iowa with a hundred supporters at a trump event and they had ever caucused in iowa, a complicated process. john mccormick joins us now from outside des moines. questionhe $64 million -- will people who show up at trump rallies either on their own initiative or through the field organization shilique to vote? -- show up to vote?

what did you decide? john: the first thing i should say is this is highly unscientific. this is a reporter running around with a bunch of hash marks in my notebook. but i was curious. these were real rapid interviews over the course of two hours. i asked if you have been to the caucuses before and do you know the date of the caucuses? that would be the second question i could ask to find out their level of involvement. i was surprised by what i found. had done something similar at a trump event in waterloo and there i found -- i did not report on it at the time but almost all of the people in the crowd told me they had never been to the caucuses before. that sort of what i was expecting to find. half of those i interviewed said they had been to the caucuses

before. said they knew the date of the caucuses and that told me maybe these trump people , and he's drawing the biggest crowds of any candidate running for president, maybe they do know more about the caucuses than we think. we think of them may be as a lot of new voters and that may not be the case. i want to pare back a little more be on the fact that they may not be the political neophytes we thought they were. what are they saying is resonated with them. what is hitting home? john:: they love that he says what he wants to say. they love that he is independent, they like his wealth and that he's a strong presence and they think he is a strong leader. like he can't say anything wrong that would offend them. that is what i found in these interviews.

when i was running through the auditorium, i would ask if he did caucused before, who did you caucus for? several people said they were ron paul supporters. to train who did a lot and educate caucus-goers on the republican and one of the -- and libertarian side, trump may be benefiting from some of that work. mark: just putting this into sharper relief -- you came away thinking there is a fair percentage, enough of a percentage who are there not just because they want to see a big show. they are there because they believe in trump's message and a lot of them have the intention and knowledge to turn out on caucus night? that's right. a lot of these folks are not there for the show. they are either on their final

choice or trying to decide who they are going to caucus for. they are not just there for the show. times" wrotew york a story said that they did not have an organization -- are they converting people into precinct captains as opposed to just caucus-goers? >> it seems to be more informal compared to some campaigns that are more structured. i don't want to say whether the story was right or wrong. they have a think huge database of people with e-mail address and they are doing their own get out the vote efforts. 10 orman said she calls 12 of their family members and urges them to caucus for donald trump. it may not be sanctioned by the campaign.

mark: it is the campaign's dream. >> your reporting shows he is almost underrepresented. saw inone other thing we our iowa poll and this was a scientific survey was that the proportion of first time caucus-goers supporting trump is lower than the overall rep publican -- republican iowa electorate. for trump supporters, it's about 15%. that tells you he's not just that she is bringing in some new people, but some of his people are experienced with this process and have done it before. back, lindseycome graham semi-unplugged.

mark: on this day when lindsey graham quit the presidential race, join us in a fond farewell. senator graham: ronald reagan did a couple of egg things we should remember -- he sat down -- he sat downl with tip o'neill and started drinking. andwas flat broke after her her husband were in the white house. the number two guy went to the soviet union on his honeymoon and i don't think he ever came back. these people,at who the hell are we going to be much mark when you like to cut putin's legs out from under him? hisy good friend ted cruz,

favorite movie is apparently the princess bride. anding in bed with iran russia to save a sod is inconceivable. princess buttercup would not like this. american original lindsey graham. we are excited to share with you the news that if you are in d.c., you can catch us on the radio every night live. thank you for watching. we will be back here tomorrow. sayonara. ♪

emily: i'm emily chang and you are watching "bloomberg wes." lindsey graham is ending his bid for the presidential nomination. he announced today he is

dropping out, but are there still plenty of republican candidates left to choose from -- 13 gop hopefuls are still in the race. a retrial has been set for the baltimore police officer charged in connection with that the freddie gray. william porter's first trial ended in a deadlocked jury. the new trial is scheduled to begin on june 13. the other five officers will be tried before that, beginning next month. astronauts helped move a stalled railcar into place. scott kelly and timothy coke would release the brakes and guided the car back into place. it needed to be moved so a cargo ship filled with three tons of food and supplies can dock at the orbits -- orbiting space lab. seaworld orlando officials say passengers on the sky tower ride were stuck for more than three hours today two hundred feet above the park. 15 firefighters helped staff rescue these people.