ken: was interesting that about the iowa poll is that it had ted cruz up by 10 percentage points. if you look at the average of all the polls is more like cruise up by two or three percentage points. something we have noticed in the there have been six or seven pretty well respected polls including our own all ofrg poll, almost the variance in how cruise and trump are doing can be explained by the evangelicals.

cnn has 40% evangelicals and trump is doing better. in the polls that have more evangelicals, ted cruz is doing much better. it looks the same as we are seeing in the polling average. trump is beating the number two person ted cruz i more than two to one. when we look at the democrats, it's a little bit of a different picture. then we are seeing in the averages. hillary is up big in the averages. five in theup by cbs poll. in new hampshire bernie sanders is up by even more than the average.

attention to the young people when you look at the democratic polls. mark: can we tell where the independent voters are leaning? ken: i think the first conversation i ever had with you was about bill bradley versus .ohn mccain back in 2000 if there are more independent voters that probably helps trump. don't think we are in a situation where trump and sanders are competing for those same voters.

mark: i meet people all the time who say that their first choice is trump and their second choice is sanders. ken: iowa becomes the test of whether the independence want to go into the democratic side of the republican. what about the economy? where people gravitating? we all pay attention to the horse race and i'm as guilty as anyone. they asked people whether they feel more safe and secure. shot orhink you have a no chance of things going your way?

one in thef six to wrong direction, people think things are fixed in the economy. rate. rigged. mark: trump was thought by the establishment to have something of the ceiling. and yet he is going higher than that ceiling. the mid to high 30's. approaching 40. ken goldstein:. trump just keeps going up. as much as people say there is no national primary, at some

point if you have 40% in the stateumbers, numbers are not independent of that. even though there is all this dumpster fire or drama on the is a nomination worth having. the right direction number is only 29% obama's drop approval is in the low 40's. it is hard to win a third term. the best thing hillary will have going for her is that she gets to run against a republican. >> we have seen hillary come out against trump in the debates. is she a ready looking ahead to the general election? ken goldstein.

i think hillary talking about donald trump unambiguously helps donald trump in the public and primary.- republican i'm sure she would prefer to run against him. much theunderstand middle group and how they will react to trump. that deep financial insecurity out there. halperin:. do you trust that methodology? goldstein: the record is not

as strong as some of the other polls that we believe in. that was puttudy out where they did in experiments. trump does much better in online .olls been in live caller polls is that because of the composition of the sample or are people embarrassed to admit they are for trump? better in the and robo calls. >> people often don't say what they really believe unless they think no one is listening.

we are five or six weeks out. 2008, obama was up in the polls but it was a huge swing to hillary clinton. mark halperin: perhaps trump supporters being understated. goldstein: the sanctity of a secret ballot in new hampshire. iowa is sort of a hybrid what you do write it down. republicans have a weird hybrid.

>> we are back with ken goldstein. let's talk about advertisements. cycle, we haven't seen the effect so much so far. ca about one third of that, $40 million, has been spent by right to rise a super

pac supporting jeb bush. run by mike murphy. understands how to sell jeb bush the product. yet. goldstein:. there is no evidence that these ads are moving poll numbers. we all agree that trump and ted cruz are the top two candidates. ted cruz has spent a small amount of money on television ads. they have a lot of money in the bank. donald trump has spent $200,000 on radio and that's it.

>> trump doesn't need to spend when he is mentioned in every single second of every political broadcast. this is the moment where we see that break? goldstein: i do think something is going on. we are not seeing spending move the numbers. i am someone who has studied advertising my whole life. i am also someone who believes in the fundamentals and free media is going to move the race. the other thing is hillary andton spent $12 million she gets much more for her money. can you name one hillary clinton added? the only note of caution i would is that this is the sort of

a cleanse the palate before the negative ads come in. halperin: let's look at these media markets. boston broadcast television is expensive and highly inefficient because you are reaching a lot of people in massachusetts rather than new hampshire. w m you are is the big station in new hampshire. ken goldstein:wmur is getting the lion's share of that money.

1500 bucks for 30 seconds. if you can get three minutes of someone talking about you, do the math. western iowa has more republicans. of moines has more of a mix democrats and republicans. see $70 million booked in iowa and new hampshire before figuring ninth. toan: one reporter talked 100 trump supporters in iowa. we will find out what he learned when we come back.

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>> we are getting more and more on board with donald trump. and its not traditional all think he is obligated to anybody else. he just says what he thinks. >> we have never seen him in person before. we can hardly wait! halperin: those were some conversations i had with some from supporters. -- trump supporters. john asked them if they had ever caucused before. john mccormick joins us now from des moines.

will people who show up at trump rallies show up for the caucuses? john mccormick: this was highly unscientific. just a reporter running around an auditorium. i was curious. these were real rapid interviews. i asked people have you been to the caucuses before and do you know the day of the caucuses? i was surprised. i had done something similar at trump event in the late fall and i had found almost all the people said they had never been to the caucuses.

but on saturday, about half of those that i interviewed said they had been to the caucuses before. about 44% said they knew the day of the caucuses which is february 1. the biggest crowds of any candidate. we think of them as a lot of new voters. that may not necessarily be the case. megan: what are they saying is resonating with them? mccormick: they love that he says whatever he wants to say. they like his wealth. they like his strong presence. they think he is a strong leader.

it seems like he can't say anything that would offend them. they like whatever he says. i was running through this auditorium quickly. if you did caucused before, who did you vote for? several people told me they were ron paul supporters four years .go ron paul a lot to bring in new voters. trump may be benefiting from that. likehalperin: it sounds you came away thinking that there is a fair percentage enough for trump to maybe win the caucuses. they are not just there to see the show because they are celebrity watchers. a lot of them have the intent and the knowledge to turn out

and vote. john mccormick: that is absolutely right. they are not there for the show. a lot of these folks are serious people. mark halperin: the new york times said that they didn't have an organization that was equal to what they claimed. what is your sense of that? mccormick: it does seem to be more informal than some of the other campaigns. i don't want to say whether the times story was right or wrong. trump does have more work to do in iowa. i do think they have a huge database of people with e-mail addresses. said they are doing their own get out the vote efforts. one woman said every week she

calls 10 or 12 of her friends and coworkers and family members and encourages them to support donald trump. it could be pretty effective. megan: you're reporting almost shows he is underrepresented in what he might get to show up on caucused day. they are iowa: first times caucus-goers is actually lower than the overall iowa republican electorate. for trump supporters it is only 15%. he is bringing in some new people that some of them are experienced caucus-goers.

mark halperin: thank you john. lindsey graham, semi-unplugged. ♪

mark halperin: join us in bidding farewell to lindsey graham. graham: ronald reagan sat down with tip o'neill. we're going to drink more. the number one candidate on the other side said she was flat broke after they were in the white house for eight years. the number two guy went to the soviet union on his honeymoon and i don't think he ever came

back. would you like to export natural gas to cut pollutants legs out from under them? princess buttercup would not like this. halperin: a funny man and an original. washington, you can now catch us on the radio. watching.for ♪

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>> we will be live in tokyo, sydni, mumbai. a tale of woe from toshiba. loss with record

thousands of jobs being cut. assets will be sold. for the economy with flexible and forceful policies and help for homebuyers. hard to swallow. sees a big fall in tokyo. trading in indonesia is getting underway. david: look at your screen's is happening in the markets right now. jakarta is just opening up. the action is not in the equity markets.