tv The Pulse Bloomberg December 22, 2015 4:00am-5:01am EST
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spaceflights one step closer to reality. 9:00 in london. welcome. you are watching "the pulse." i'm guy johnson. let me update you on what is happening in the markets. ofoline: we are seeing a bit a rebound. a little bit of risk appetite this morning on the back of hopes for more chinese stimulus. . stocks run in u.s after we heard that the chinese government is considering more flexible monetary policy and more forceful fiscal spending. have a look at what is happening on the stoxx 600. it is up .4%. nearly every single industry group is climbing. interestingly leading the charge, a few ones at the bottom of the pack. were actually
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getting a push upwards because of this chart. oil bouncing. over the course of the last two days. brent not quite gathering as much steam as wti is, but we are seeing it coming off those flows. t,sterday wti crude and bren we saw them reach the lowest price and 11 years. maybe the rock-bottom prices are starting to see a little bit of buying. to show you want one stock that really is on the move. not one we talk about very much. it is based in the netherlands. but what a move. up 25%. is being offered 1.4 billion euros by a japanese rival. recruit holdings. looking to expand into your. -- into europe. so, they are dabbling first with usg people.
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the premium of 31% being offered. a bit of m&a for you this morning. lastly, we have a central-bank policy meeting. following the announcement from turkey. we are starting to co little bit more of a weakening -- to see a bit of a weakening in the lire. a few bets coming off. caution as we head into this meeting as to whether he will see some sort of increase in rates. many feeling we will do. but at the moment we are seeing the lira down ever so slightly. guy: thank you very much, indeed. , improved growth is the message that has come out of the chinese government's top economic meeting. the country's leaders have agreed yet more steps to stimulate the economy which is now growing at its slowest rate since 1990. the measures include lower taxes for businesses and financial aid to stimulate the housing market. force.ut this in context
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-- for us. we get the not often government basically telegraphing it is going to step to stimulusnd add measures they have lowered interest rate several times in the last year. and it looks highly likely they will do so again. basically, this is sort of an affirmation of what we suspected in the past that the government is trying to transition the economy to something that is ofally born on the back consumer spending. in the meantime, it is prepared to rely on old growth drivers like infrastructure investment, property and things like that. it is going to really ease liquidity. lower rates allow banks to lend more. sort of a reaffirmation of its old principles as it seeks to prop up growth. guy: we see there is a lot of emphasis placed on monetary policy. supply side is something we focus less on.
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walk us through we are going to see there. nick: the big thing is the interest rate cuts. really pumping the market full of liquidity. banks, whatk at the we are expecting is the reserve requirement at such a key number. the amount of money or cash the banks are supposed to hold in reserve is so high. the government is basically telegraphing that it is going to reduce that requirement. that will allow banks to say, hey, we do not have to worry so much about all these assets. we are going to lend that out. that is where the government is headed now. guy: give us the political backdrop to this. as you say, it is not often we see a government telegraphing this as aggressively as the chinese government is what is going to happen on the stimulus front. why are they doing what they are doing? how concerned are they? nick: well, this is an annual meeting where they do basically set the growth target for the next year.
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they will not release that growth target in till march of next year. so it really underscores their determination to hit their growth targets. xi xing ping says they expect to see growth of 6.5% per year. contradicting the previous message where the government says we will allow this new normal of slower growth. but when they start making statement like this, in a way it is reassuring to investors. it shows that transition is going to be at a very gradual process. this is not a situation where we will see the economy go from 7% growth per year 25%. they are going to guide -- this. that will be quite reassuring to investors and companies looking to do business in china. guy: always a pleasure. out of beijing. let's bring in jeremy cook, the chief economist at world first. something is happening
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and maybe they are chatting about and maybe we will see more stimulus, both monetary policy and fiscal policywise by the chinese new year. the beginning of february tense to be the time they tend to move. they've taken notice of the market fears we have around china. hopefully something comes out of it, yeah. guy: more stimulus, m ore turbulence -- more turbulence? saw theas much as we swiss national bank de-peg. the chinese authorities fell into the devaluation of the yuan. there was not much munication before hand. this is hopefully their attempts to communicate more is coming on a gradual basis. volatility is assured when you're dealing with china. guy: how critical is what china does to the emerging markets?
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balance outxt -- the fed and what china does in terms of the importance of the end trade. the transition of china into more western emerging latin america or south africa on eventually into other markets. we know the fed's forecasting for interest rate rises next year. i think that is pretty rich. guy: how rich? jeremy: i think we will see two maybe three. i still think the market will bring the fed expectations lower. i think the fed may be overreaching at the moment for interest rate -- four interest rate rises next year. on the emerging markets out of things, the near-term spending boost will provide a chinese q.e. guy: stay with us. plenty more to talk about. let's talk about what is happening. ba shiva has had a -- toshi
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announced big losses and changes in terms of the structure of its business. the good news is not forthcoming. big selloffsery and the stock price have been followed up by moody's cutting toshiba by two notches. credit intooshiba's junk territory. not been a good 48 hours for that business. let's take a look at what else is on our rater. it is six-month after spacex take off.xploded on a new rocket has placed 11 satellites into orbit before returning the first booster to earth for the first time. retro rockets guided it to a soft landing. at the missile testing range at cape canaveral. they were pretty excited when that happened, as you can see. the federal reserve bank dennis lockhart says the central bank's view of gradual tightening suggests rates can be raised in every other meeting of the fomc.
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that means four hikes over the next year. reiterating comments by other policymakers, lockhart said the pace with the pen on incoming economic data. still data dependent at the fed. $528 ofr wars" recorded global box office sales -- $528 million. that is improved for many investors. -- hasn't improved enough. people are asking themselves what they own the stock for? the ceo has been talking up the franchise. inwhneen we acquired lucas 2012, while we knew the most important thing we had to do was make good films, starting with this one, that it was always going to represent for the company more than just a movie, more than just the movie business. and so, as we look ahead, there
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is a lot of activity that is wars" related, including large theme park and many other plans across our businesses. guy: up next, it has been a strong year for the dollar, but it is now looking at its biggest asthly decline in 8 months, investors bet against another hike before april. we will take a look at what lies ahead in a moment. ♪
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guy: good morning. you are watching "the pulse" live on bloomberg tv, on the radio and streaming on bloomberg.com, your tablet and your phone. a solid year for the dollar thus far. anticipation of the fed raising red, the greenback has been an upward trajectory since october. since then, maybe it is better to travel than arrive because the dollar has started to fade. maybe the market does not believe we will see mr. lockhart's prediction come true that we will see four rate hikes next year. maybe we will only see two. the dollar index out of 100. one of the reasons for that concern is that inflation will not pick up. simon kennedy joins us now. also with this is jeremy cook, first world iit's
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should be saying rather than first word. tell us why the dollar is starting to fade. is it the inability of the fed to come through those four hikes because inflation is not going to be there? saw the fedact we last week finally act and the dollar has dropped off is to absorb that. the question remains next year, is the market right? you're looking at a severe move from the fed, four rate hikes. again say, the markets are betting on two. the markets were right this year. the question for many next year is whether the markets maintain a magnetism or whether the fed will be able to lead markets. two hikes in next year. if that turns out to be the case, is the dollar priced somewhere in the middle? is there more for the dollar to fade if we move back towards market consensus rather than fed
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consensus? jeremy: may be the first month we'll see a washout in the long dollar positions we saw. a lot of people reload. pre-fed came out to visually. then we've seen the dollar start to weaken. then the data recently from the united states has been ok. if they are still data dependent there is a lot of room for u.s. -- maintenance over the course of 2016. i think that inflation does start to build as we see wage pressures move higher. by wilson commodity markets in oil prices. guy: the u.s. or globally? jeremy: this is in the u.s. guy: what is going to end up being the bigger problem -- draghi's deflation or yellen's deflation? simon: it would have to be a big policy mistake from the fed to
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ofe id valuation -- lasck big.tion is going to bbe will be the first since 1932 in which inflation has not top 2% at all of the g7 economies. draghi goingar, is to be the deciding factor in this? yes, we have to worry about whether it is two or four and the states but we have a slightly more im ponderable question as to whether or not draghi will be a reach of the liver. -- able to deliver. maybe their election hike is in the u.s. and reluctant ease is in the euro area. --t week, draghi last dovish
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dovish. is that where we are next year, the ecb will be more reluctant to ease. how much we going to see from the ecb next year? simon: i do not think we see anything. people talk about a post fed world. ,e are in a post draghi world because he has had his wings clipped by the tighter monetary policy members of the european central bank. big hit ofee a inflation, another $10 off the price of oil. i think the ecb has fired its last shot. guy: how important is china in this decision-making process? china is coming out and saying we will do more monetary policy. 'll change taxes.
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is that a pivotal factor in which those two central banks, ecb, might end up swinging. china stabilizes, that is another reason for bundesbank to say we do not need any more changes. china has a lot of room to cut its benchmark rate. don't. the others there is policy room for the chinese to come to the support of its economy. if it can support its economy, and germany does ok, then the bundesbank has another reason against ecb dovishness. der europeanwi question we are starting to see as a result of what happened in spain over the course of the weekend is that we used to have very tightened fiscal policy and loose monetary policy. maybe we are starting to see that tip a bit over the course of 2016 with the rise of policymakers within europe and
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22 minutes past the hour. you are watching "the pulse." we are live on bloomberg tv, streaming on your tablet, your phone and bloomberg.com. less talk about christmas. his firstceo is ended full year at the helm of the business and with the stock at an 18 year low. bs add to tesco's woes, u indicates that sales will fall over christmas by 3%. of world first is still with us. i cannot say that this morning. how critical is christmas for dave lewis? >> it is an important one. the share prices are at the lowest level in a century. it is important for any retailer to have a good christmas but dave lewis needs to build confidence back and tesco. -- in tesco. and christmas will be a test of that recovery plan, which is predicated on getting more
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people to buy more things from tesco at christmas time. people have money in their pockets. they want to spend it. they want to treat their friends and family. it's tesco's job to make sure they do that job. guy: the critical thing is convince consumers that the quality the offer is better than many people's perceptions. as a result, just by doing that they have made lewis's job so much harder. >> absolutely. there has been a real change in perception. people do not see the likes of aldi as bargain basement anymore. one forecast that spending at the discounts this christmas is set to rise by 17%. so, they are a force to be reckoned with. guy: turning business around is not done in a hurry. this is the end of his first full year. how long do investors give him? how long does the board give him
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to deliver tangible returns? >> dave lewis has been clear it is a big job. no one would disagree. he came to the company in very tumultuous circumstances. there was an accounting schedule which was not of his making. last year he got a free hit at christmas. people were not expecting big things. he had that full-year. he is head is time to put his plans in place. there is more pressure now. some investors have seen enough. they want results quicker than this. guy: what does he have to do in 2016? get christmas out of the way. a toughstill environment. aldi is still gaining market share. and expanding. a big problem for dave lewis is that prices are still falling. they are trying to narrow that
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gap to discounters. they're having to run faster and faster to stand still. there is also why the pressure from the new living wage which is set to start as of next year. tesco's the country's biggest employer. that is an additional problem they don't need. it's fair to say you should not expect dramatic improvements next year. guy: great story, sam. sam chambers, european consumer reporters. jeremy cook stove with us. the u.k. consumer next year, what to expect? figureswe saw the cbi show the november bounceback was all well and good, courtesy of the black friday sales extravaganza but moving into 2016 there is going to be low inflation may start to turn hire. wages aren't turning higher at the moment. the ability to get a job -- the labor market has tightened up.
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and fiscal tightening as well. it is not a great outlook for the u.k. consumer. guy: spending is picking up on the back of credit. we will talk about that in a little while. thank you very much for joining us. up, turkey central bank is expected to follow the fed's lead with a hike at lunchtime. we will talk about that on our return on the "the pulse." ♪
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when you're on hold, your business is on hold. that's why comcast business doesn't leave you there. when you call, a small business expert will answer you in about 30 seconds. no annoying hold music. just a real person, real fast. whenever you need them. so your business can get back to business. sounds like my ride's ready. don't get stuck on hold. reach an expert fast. comcast business. built for business. to discover the best shows friends together and movies with xfinity's winter watchlist. later on, we'll conspire ♪ ♪ as we dream by the fire ♪ a beautiful sight, we're happy tonight ♪ ♪ watching in a winter watchlist land, ♪
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♪ watching in a winter watchlist land! ♪ xfinity's winter watchlist. watch now with xfinity on demand- your home for the best entertainment this holiday season. guy: welcome back. you're watching "the pulse" live here in london. i am gone johnson -- guy johnson. nejra: thanks, guy. china's leaders have signaled they will do more to boost growth. the fiscal deficit ratio must be widen and monetary policy made more flexible. the comments came at the end of
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the central economic work conference. iary suggests that executive board members curbs meetings with banks and asset managers in the hours before monetary decisions. shows officials scaled engagements at the most sensitive times. is striving to stamp out projections. costs and ag shortage of supply drive u.k. housing prices up 6% next year according to the royal institution of chartered surveyors. demand for housing remains strong, driven by record low interest rates and a resilient economy. guy: thank you very much. turkey announces its latest decision on interest rates at noon today. the central bank's governor has said it was quite reasonable to expect a rise after the fed liftoff. our emerging markets report is in istanbul. antine, let's deliver first
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what we think is going to happen today. what do economists that we have been surveying say? constantine: so, the economists expect the central bank to begin its simple vocation of monetary policy. the banks had signaled in august that it would start moving away from its current multi- rate regime towards a single interest and and said this could, signal this could happen after the fed, uh, raised rates. so the market expects a 25 basis point increase today to the main 50 basisrepo, sorry, a point increase to the one week repo rate. guy: the market may be expecting a hike. the government would like a cut. constantine: that's correct. the central bank has been under
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pressure by turkish politicians throughout this year to keep borrowing costs low. last week president erdogan's ch ief advisor said the central bank should find an opportunity to cut rates. there is stephanie that aspect to it. -- there is definitely that aspect to it. even if the central bank raises its headline rates he can keep the funding to banks on change by providing more liquidity. guy: thank you very much, indeed, for the update. joining us ahead of the turkish rate decision. the central bank governor about political interference. he resorted to turkish portraiture deflect the question. to deflect thery question. this is dollar-lira. the greenback has been more on the front foot. i wonder if this is with the
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market beginning to price out some of that hike. theing at two spot 92 at moment. one percent. the turkish decision comes at the point of a real roller coaster of a year for emerging markets. programs,en easing devaluations, finance ministers being fired, all kinds of things going on. it has been quite a year. let's talk about how wild it has been. strategistrg fx joins us. slightlynk we have the, bit more immune this year to what constitutes a surprise out of the emerging markets. china, south africa. the list goes on and on and on. it has been a wild ride. the wildest sort of swing we have seen in any currency this year has been in the swiss franc. cut way back to january.
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that was a massive move in a short space of time from a central bank who had just before announcing they were going to allow the swiss franc to trade above 1.20 versus the euro, they were very much committed to this policy. they were going to keep it in place. then a couple days later they abandoned it. in the face of ecb q.e. i know emerging markets have been quite wild. guy: that was the biggest move. richard: for me it was. i think it was a really big shock. guy: william, give us your context on it. in some ways it set the scene. this is from the other end of some of this flow we saw. part of that is down to what the ecb did. the swiss snapped early on. but there have been plenty of others.
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manyere have been very large currency movements in the emerging markets. we have seen a number of headwinds to e.m. currencies. price fallsarp which is led to the russian ruble and the brazilian real. general dollar strength and euro weaknesses taken its toll. turkish lira has done badly. lirave seen the turkish fell and rally. the brazilian real has been hit by domestic problems. has been having a strong run. beginning to fade in december. is this one of the things we are also concerned about the fed's first rate hike that now that we got it on the way the market is going to be less concerned and as a result of which the dollar is not going to be the challenge it was for the e.m. in 2015?
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back, theooking dollar had a much bigger impact on the timing of fed liftoff than perhaps any of us realized. i think the strength of the dollar throughout 2015 has already tightened policy for the fed, which is one of the reasons why i think we saw the delay to last week rather than earlier in the year. even as early as june, a lot of economists were expecting the fed to raise rates. the strong dollar has been a big determinant for the fed. in 2016, it will continue to be a big determinant for the. guy: as we came out into the summer into the auto, the dollar strength was a factor. the dollar autumn, strength and the chinese were factors. as we look into next year and particular for the asian fx trade, how big a factor isn't going to be that the chinese continue to weaken the currency? more talk of stimulus. there has been a bit of stabilization in the currency over the last couple days but an expectation of maybe that
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process continues and continues and continues. am: it is start a big concert. we saw how big a shock of and china can cause emerging markets -- it is a big concern. looking ahead, our own view is that things in china should improve a bit. surplustry's large means the depreciation against the dollar should be limited. but there is plenty of risk here. guy: we will talk about oil. oil is not a currency but it is a big factor in the currency markets and vice versa. if we were to see a ofbilization and crude, kind reverse engineer what that would mean back into currency markets. richard: i think for those central banks, and i'm thinking specifically of the bank of england and ecb who have a single mandate with an inflation target, i think this stable asian of the oil price would give them comfort that headline inflation would if not pick up
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sharply would stabilize. in the case of the bank of england, that is something very welcome. we have had double-dip deflation already. price does not stabilize, i know we get base effects kicking in, but could it be that $25 oil? i pick that number out of the sky. does that give us a triple dip into inflation? the bank of england's job to try to enact policy normalization that much more difficult. i think you are right. if we get stabilization, it will be welcome. but it is -- guy: do you think the currencies are functional? i look back at last year think, bank of england, we started to see carney talking. richard: both are contribute factors. the bank will say that the oil price has been the bigger picture but effective. but they have a knowledge the fact that the pound has been strong. and this has had, made their goal to get their inflation
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target that much more challenging. guy: when we take a look commodities next year, critical for number -- a number of countries -- turkey, for example. when you look at the producers. russia, what is happening in the ggc, latin america. we need to see stabilization before some of those currency stocks turn. we are looking for stabilization in commodity ld providech shou support to the russian ruble and the brazilian real. guy: when does that come? william: it is impossible to predict. oil had stabilize earlier in the year. now it is closer to 35. could they fall even further? russia,untries like this makes the outlook difficult to predict. guy: do you think the 2016 rather than 2017 will be the year the people start taking a
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more positive view of the emerging markets? we have had years and years of underperformance. levelstart to see these stabilization? do you start the -- to see people saying, now is the time to invest? looking to 2016, it is hard to think that things will be worse than they were this year. countries such as brazil -- brazil and russia, it's difficult to see them having recessions as large as they did this year. there are some parts of the emerging world that have done pretty well. parts of central and eastern europe have benefited from lower oil prices. in thinking that china's economy should stabilize as stimulus support some of the asian exporters. guy: in my going to get the biggest bang for my buck in terms of trading intra e.m. p airs? mi trading the importers versus
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the exporters? is that something i continue to do? william: we have seen a real shift towards negative sentiment towards e.m.'s. looking ahead, it looks like differentiation will be key. they are emerging markets that should do pretty well. the strengthening u.s. economy. those that are going to struggle even if brazil and russia improve a bit. weak state before the latest fall in commodity prices. trading commodity pairs in the commodity markets? being so closely aligned to what is happening in the commodity space " pick up seen the aussie on a few words out of the chinese. richard: if 2015 has taught us anything is never underestimate the power of commodities and the currency associated with them to surprise us.
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1.40nk looking at dollar, looks like a big level. it is so contingent on what oil does. i have not met anyone who is a great oil forecaster. guy: it is almost greenspanlike. if you can understand what is going on, you do not understand what is going on. it has not felt cathartic yet. we have not had that real blowout. and that is what people are waiting for. what does history tell us? once it starts to stabilize, how do currencies do? richard: it is going to take that cathartic moment. and that is not something that will flip like a light switch. i think it is something that will play itself out over time. the thing that struck me about the oil market this year is every time we look like we have reached the bottom and we started to bounce a bit, the bounces have been shallow and market purchase offense have looked at those spikes as selling opportunities.
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it feels like we are not there yet. still probably that mindset will dominate and keep a lid on in the near term. guy: thank you very much. next, beware of the consensus. the top forecasters of 2015 are telling us that investors should be ignoring the wisdom of the crowds in the year ahead. what are the crowds getting wrong? we will find out when we come back. ♪
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guy: welcome back. you are watching "the pulse" live from london. let's get the bloomberg business flash. se has filedt suise an arm -- an arbitration claim alleging that he unit of ubs unfairly poached staff from its u.s. private banking business. it says 70 people jumped ship. the ratings agency moody's has two notches into junk. the japanese stock fell again after the company yesterday billioner record $4.5 loss following an accounting scandal. shares are down 20% over the last two days. six months after a spacex falcon 9 exploded on takeoff, a new rocket has successfully placed
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11 commercial satellites in orbit before returning to the first stage booster to earth for the first time. rockets guided it to a soft landing at an old missile testing range at cape canaveral. guy: they do very much, indeed inthank you very much, deed. housing prices have risen. emma charlton is here. that is not great news for the bank of england that is beginning to get concerned about what it should do with house prices, particularly buy to let. emma: that is something that they had highlighted in the report. the bank's said it is not worried about the overall trend but it is worried about certain segments of the market including are seeingwhere we activity pickup. the government have tried to put
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in place measures to counter act that. in the statement we saw additional members to take some of the heat up, but hopefully the next are the bank of england will also get powers to do something about that. guy: let's look at what is happening in terms of the bigger picture. the u.k. has a housing problem partly because of the low cost of borrowing. and the effect the government has sort of pushed the demand-side pretty hard. also, a massive supply-side problem as well. emma: that is the main thing that rics is saying will propel prices higher next year. so, there are not enough houses. a lot of people want to get on let. we have a lot of foreign money flowing in to the housing market. that will keep pushing prices up. rics don't offer any solutions on that front. they think it is a problem. perhaps some of the government's measures at the margin will make a difference but this is an ongoing issue. supply is nowhere. guy: it is going to be a big
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topic next year, i suspect. joining us after the rics outlook for the 2016 house price story in the u.k. if you're still working out your investment strategy for 2016, your lesson from last year might be to ignore the crowd. the most accurate forecasters of 2015 all proved concession -- consensus estimates wrong. their message this year is the same. if you're looking at u.s. equities, u.s. treasuries, gold, you might make the right decision to follow those who have broken away from the pack. let me show you how those who did not follow consensus did better on these forecasts. starting with stocks, u.s. stock forecasters began the year as bulls. they were calling for an 8.1% ri the s&p 500. instead, the s&p 500 is on downe for a 1.8% decline to shrink and the fed moving off
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from the zero interest rate policy. one of the most accurate see much moreou muted gains next year for the s&p 500. moving on treasuries, when it comes to them, the yield on the 10-year is lower than consensus forecasters. the yield of 2.19%. the average consensus was for to be over 3% post fed hike. now, the median estimate in a bloomberg survey sees 10-year yields rise. but the most accurate forecaster this year says 10-year rates will end next year almost exactly where they are now. finally in commodities, this year's rout surprised all but the biggest bears. the most accurate nettles forecaster says gold prices will probably drop another 12% by the end of 2016. the lesson to take here is that
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if these predictions are on target, you can expect 12 more months of resilience in u.s. government bond markets and disappointing returns for the s&p 500 and you can expect a fresh six year low for gold. guy: interesting stuff. thank you very much, indeed. balmy winterpe's presents problems for refineries. suddenmand -- seeing a surge. we will find out what is going on when we return. ♪ ♪
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guy: welcome back. you're watching "the pulse" live tv, the radio, and streaming on your tablet coming phone and bloomberg.com. a warm european winter is alling pressure on refineries. tankers bringing supplies into the u.s. have been forced to do mid-atlantic u-turns. quite entertaining to watch that because their supplies are not needed. what impact is this having on the industry? bill is here. what is going on? you walk out the door and you know it is warm. i have not turned the central heating on barely this winter. how much of a ripple effect does that have? bill: that is exactly right. that is what has been happening all over europe heard because it is been such a mild winter and people so they are not turning on their home heating as much. that's driven down the amount of
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money that refineries can make from heating oil. guy: what does this mean? there are huge tanks full of the stuff knocking around. how does this glut get unwound? bill: exactly. it won't unless the weather improves. stockpiles are rising, even though in winter they should decline. so the outlook is unless it gets cold, heating oil prices are going to keep falling. guy: you get all kinds of different things. does this mean that we are selling other things? what is it mean for gasoline? bill: indeed. that is the secret benefit for refineries because they make, naturally make an amount of gasoline every time they make heating oil. what will have into prices for gasoline is that they have been rising because people able to drive more. the low crude price has been feeding through to lower petrol prices as well. guy: it certain has. you can buy petrol for less than a pound.
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sounds like my ride's ready. don't get stuck on hold. reach an expert fast. comcast business. built for business. closesshanghai composite at levels not seen in months as china pledges to do more to boost growth. deutsche bank is said to have identified $4 billion in suspicious transactions related to its russian operations. turkey central bank is expected to take janet's lead and hike.
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