♪ >> welcome to "with all due respect," the christmas eve show. the year is almost over and it has been one of the most exciting years in presidential politics. tonight we will start by recapping the big moments for the leading republican presidential candidates and ponder what they might need to do next to win the white house. we will start with, who else? donald trump. what was his big moment? john: donald trump is a man of big moments. it was his announcement speech.

he came out and made his presidential announcement speech. he said this thing that was very provocative about mexican immigrants, comparing some of them to rapists. it set the tone for his campaign. it did not stop him. he catapulted him into the lead, which he held for the year. the kind of defines the kind of controversy. it was the perfect paradigm. mark: it was so unorthodox. he talked about his personal wealth. in it was defining. many people said, that is it, he is not going anywhere. again and again, trump has defined people's expectations as how you behave as a presidential candidate. and what you can do and still thrive. john: the first thing that he keyed in on was immigration. for the restrictionist wing of the republican party it was the first thing that kept them

interested in donald trump. nobody knew what trump's views on immigration work until then. the other way it is defining, mark: he had that issue for a while. he has the ability to find defining issues and write them hard. what does he need to do? john: he needs to win the iowa caucuses. there is a chance that if he does that, he would be unstoppable. mark: he needs to turn this roman unorthodox campaign to see if he can do the orthodox saying of turning out voters. marco rubio's moment was when he decided to focus on delegate accumulation as well as winning early states. put a lot of money into spending in iowa, new hampshire, but also down south. in the states where they are going to vote in they have built

march, a strong operation with lots of supporters and volunteers. that has position him to be as likely as anybody, with the possible exception of donald trump, to be the party nominee. john: there was the focus of doing all of these things and focusing on a laserlike way on iowa. where all of the time that he spent and all of the retail politicking that he did has yielded him important endorsements from evangelical leaders in iowa. he has not been able to consolidate the evangelical block. mark: he needs to be able to withstand pressure because he has been under a lot. john: right now the, ted cruz is the front runner. john: if he holds that, you are right. even though he has a 50-state strategy, they could all fall apart if he does not win in

iowa. i think that rubio has his defining moments off of the main -- on the main stage. mark: i said defining moment? john: you pick the moment where he was prescient about what was happening in syria. he gave a great speech about foreign policy at the reagan library. everybody was impressed when they saw it. it was the first moment that the young marco rubio became somebody in the eyes of some republican voters that looked like somebody that was president. mark: if you cannot win a state in the first four, his theory will be sorely tested at best. chris christie in 2015 and what he needs to do? john: i think the defining moment is a negative one.

when he failed to convince the establishment that he was not damaged goods. his absence at the moment. he never had a moment where he was thought of the way he was thought of again back before bridge gate. john: if chris christie is the republican nominee, the moment i will peg is when he gave that speech about drug addiction and drug use and drug recovery. talking in a very emotional way that caught fire on facebook. it made people remember what an incredibly powerful political performer he can be. if he is not the nominee, it will be the day when he messed up on bridge gate. mark: he needs to win new hampshire. a guy whose fortunes have fallen, ben carson, his defining moment, what does he need to do? john: carson, the negative, i will pick one among many negative moments.

he is talking about the chinese and syria. there were many moments on foreign policy and he seemed to be somebody that did not understand the world. the moments of terror and terrorism arrived and became a dominant issue late this year, this guy, i do not think he can be your nominee. mark: he needs to shock the world in iowa. he needs to finish a strong second and surge past donald trump or ted cruz. john: it will be very hard. jeb bush, the front runner coming in. no longer the front runner. by any means. what does he need to do? mark: the defining moment was when he could not handle questions about his brother and the iraq war. he did not understand politics modern news cycle. it brought to board the legacy

the bushes. john: everyone's pressure was on him. everybody was focused in the same way. you should have been prepared to give a good answer with your brother and iraq. you had to be prepared to do well in that debate. we saw jeb do better in las vegas. he came out so flat and got creamed by marco rubio. for a lot of establishment arians, they said that we need to look somewhere else. mark: he needs his super pac to spend money in a way that helps him instead of makes them go down. carly fiorina, the thing that she needs to do is to fight her back into the dialogue. i would say the same about john

kasich. john: no defining moment has been the problem for john kasich. mark: he needs to find a rationale in new hampshire. he needs to make the case that he is a different kind of+++ republican. do not shy away from it. john: been a year of outsider candidates, a guy who talks a great length on the armed services committee in the house. now it is time for the democrats. the obvious place to start is with hillary clinton. her defining moment and what she needs to do. mark: the week where she did very well at the benghazi and where joe biden decided not to run. those were arguably the best runs that any candidate has had

in their careers. she's got to win iowa and new hampshire. the republicans have a long nomination fight. maybe a mega fight. john: as long as she wins iowa, she is fine. bernie, it will be called home field advantage if he wins new hampshire. if she loses both, she is in trouble. if she wins one of the two -- mark: i am not so sure that people will discount a new hampshire win as much as we do. if he wins iowa narrowly, she wins. bernie sanders, what is his best moment of the year? john: every single time he stood in front of a crowd. mark: that is not a moment. john: there was not one in particular. let's say the first one. it might have been in wisconsin. maybe one of those in texas. other people said, wow, there is an obama-like quality in him. he is inspiring incredible

enthusiasm. mark: the first debate he did not prepare. if he had had a strong first debate and put her on the and rattled her. she is part of the same run with the benghazi hearing and biden. if he had had a strong debate, that would have been good for him. but it really deflated his campaign. john: for him, what he needs to do, i do not mean to suggest that he needs to go negative on hillary clinton. he must drive home the existing real policy differences between the two of them. where he is more in line with the democratic party than she is. he's got to drive those home in a ferocious way. mark: doing it without repetition or self-consciousness. or concern that he is sounding too negative. john: i am still waiting for him to show just as much humanity to the voters as he does when he is on the set. there is martin o'malley, does he have a defining moment? mark: his announcement speech.

it was one of the a best announcement speech is. his introducers were incredibly well-chosen. it was the first time that he had a little bit of contrast with hillary clinton. in part because it was so good. but it also illustrates the complete conundrum of martin o'malley. by virtue of his resume and because he is from a different generation, he should be doing better than 5%. 1%, 2%. it has not taken off at all. john: i do not find that at all perplexing. democrats love those two. mark: i am surprised that he is not at 10-11 percent. john: the defining moment was when we set in that first focus -- sat in that first focus group in new hampshire and none of the democrats knew who he was. mark: we will take a spin

through mr. trump's headquarters. and talk politics with seth meyers. ♪

mark: it is the most wonderful time of the year. we will talk about what all the candidates can do to increase their chances. we will talk about the unique s ness of the iowa caucuses. mark: in past cycles, the major candidates have had many more days on the ground. a lot more visits to different parts of the state. the rules of the caucuses are roughly the same. they have democratized them a little bit. this is an institution like no other.

other states have caucuses. but other states have caucuses that are influential in the process. john: no one understands what a difficult challenge it is in terms of organization. do not have a day of voting. you have to get people to come to an event, stand there for three hours on a cold night in february. it is so different. that is true of all caucuses. it is especially true in iowa. it might be 10 degrees on february 1. it is a totally unique experience in american democracy. i agree with you. it will be interesting to see how much effort there will be on the republican side. democrats have been doing more in terms of organization. mark: because participation is really narrow, you cannot get a babysitter that day, the weather is bad, because participation is so low, those small number of people have such a huge influence.

no one expects it to be anywhere close to 200,000 people voting. when you are out with the candidates and you have seven people at the event and they get excited. you might think that is weird. well, that is seven people. john: they are a very homogenous group of people. i love iowa. but it is a lily white state. , it does not look like the rest of america. on the republican side, much older voters. on the democratic side, much more educated voters than average. the fact that those things are true somebody like bernie , sanders might not do well in the iowa caucus. he is a chance if the -- he has a better chance if it were in california. mark: who on the republican side is in the best is issued to win? john: ted cruz is in the best position to win the iowa

caucuses. the only other person that looks like a significant threat is trump. they had that organization there. whether they can meet the challenges that we described in terms of what to do on caucus night, not clear at all. mark: the two guys that worked very hard in iowa, rick santorum and mike huckabee, they have won in the past, they are nowhere. amazing, because lots of people voted for them. historically in the caucuses, if you vote for someone and they run again, you retain a fair amount of people. i remember going with joe biden 20 years after he ran the first time. john: who is best positioned in the caucuses on the democratic side? mark: hillary clinton is. i do not know if it means that much. it is hard to figure out who is going to turn out. i interacted with the sanders operation in iowa.

, is very engaged. the clinton people have done a very smart job of marrying up some iowa folks that moved there and are living off the land. they are spending a lot of money, not too much money. i think the clinton operation is justifiably praised. john: they have taken the obama smarts and a lot of the obama people. and build a genuine field organization. bernie sanders, if he gets hot, he could be the candidate that would draw a lot of new people to the process and could shock the world. he could surprise the conventional wisdom of the day and when those caucuses. mark: we will look back at some of the highlights of the year including going into the trump headquarters. ♪

mark: with 2015 drawing to a close, john and i thought it was a good time to look act this -- look back on the adventures of the summer. here he we got an exclusive look at donald trump's office here in gotham city. hi, how are you? have you worked on a presidential campaign before? >> no. i graduated from nyu. i have worked on some smaller campaigns. governor campaigns, but nothing like this. i coordinate things. i make sure everyone has everything they need. scheduling requests. i help with press secretary stuff. just basically make sure everything is running on track. mark: where did you first meet mr. trump? >> when i first started working. mark: what was that like? >> a little nerve-racking, but

he was incredibly nice. mark: this is where trump's campaign manager works. he is from new hampshire. he has got a nice, don't tread on me do your job. , john: corey, this is where you work. this is the campaign manager's office. you have worked on how many campaigns roughly? 40. the balcony, it does not get any better than this. we get a balcony to enjoy the nice weather. mark: fifth avenue, near central park. is this where you will stay? this is the headquarters? >> this is it, 100%. we have room to grow. we have additional space in the building if we want it. we paid fair market value, just as if we were renting to anyone else. that is what that sec requires.

mark: not cheap, but you have a campaign.r for the >> we run the campaign like everybody. we run the campaign like a business. we make sure when we spend money, we get a return on our investment. we do not waste money. we don't have high-priced consultants. john: it is a little bit more like the filet mignon. mark: pizza is here. let's get in there, we have got to see this. every campaign has pizzas. >> they get all the mail. they answer 80% of the cause -- calls right here. these are some of the things people have sent in in the last 30 to 45 days. it gets packed up. that is today's mail that has come in so far. mark: how many do you get a day?

>> we have 3 to 4 a day. mark: does everybody get a response? pizza is a big part of every campaign. what have you got on there? looks pretty good. >> i am doing a lot of scheduling and making phone calls. mark: have you ever worked on a campaign before? >> i have. i have worked on city council. i think that trump has a different view of politics that i really like. i was a political science major, i know a lot about politics. how politics in america actually goes and i want to make a difference. i actually believe mr. trump can do it. mark: your office is on fifth avenue. this looks like a campaign. we could be anywhere on a campaign. >> that is what i like about it.

i think it's more about making america great again. mark: i am not saying you should lose your job, but that woman is awesome. >> amazing. mark: great. every sentence ended with, make america great again. pizza, make america great again. trump belts custom belts, make , america great again. the flag was made to, do not trade on trump. >> people send you a flag and ask if you'll put it up in your office. i say, of course. mark: those seem big. >> they are 44, to 48. mark: those seem big. you quit your job and volunteered to come here? >> yep. mark: presidential campaigns are

normally something that people spend a lifetime working up to. >> i just showed up. i will work free. mark: you are wearing a tie today. is that office policy? in most campaign, like up in burlington, vermont, they would be wearing tie-dye shirts and ripped jeans. did you come here because you like donald trump? >> i love donald trump. i came here for my work. i just e-mailed the homepage and showed up. mark: i do not know if you can thisre -- see in here, but used to be the office space for "the apprentice." i guess this is where the props were. the floor we are going to is where they filmed it? it is still there? there we go. you are working one floor below where the magic happens.

ed. let's take a quick peek at the taping of the show. -- table from the show. this is it. this is the famous board table. covered up for posterity. but see what we have over here. iphone covers. buttons, make america great again. the celebrity present -- president. you are hired. the famous hats. trump ties. proving this is campaign headquarters, the one piece of food we have seen. when we return, more, more, more donald trump. we will take a look back at the summer of his meteoric rise. ♪ the only way to get better is to challenge yourself,

and that's what we're doing at xfinity. we are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. and this includes our commitment to being on time. every time. that's why if we're ever late for an appointment, we'll credit your account $20.

it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. john: it is a little colder outside, so you probably have forgotten when it was hot, hot, hot. we will always remember the summer of trump.

here is a look back at the man's political rise. mr. trump, thank you for your time. and thank you for being 50 big fan. donald trump: tremendous show, tremendous success. john: you are finally running for president. donald trump: i am officially running for president of the united states. mark: with all due respect to donald trump -- john: with all due respect to donald trump, you are not the only one who knows how to escalate a situation. mark: happy national donald trump day, sports fans. john: returning to our regularly scheduled programming, donald trump. >> he is a more compelling figure. this is not michele bachmann. this is not herman cain.

mark: every other candidate in the field would kill for his poll numbers. showsa new fox news poll support for donald the trump is 11%. mark: once people took him seriously, he would rise. john: the donald tops every leaderboard in sight. mark: trump gets crazy high best in show marks from everything to handling the economy, terrorism, and yes, immigration. >> a force field of otherworldly energy. a reuters poll has him at 32% -- >> who is doing well right now? >> donald trump. john: in our ongoing attempt to understand the trump phenomenon, we did a focus group last night with 12 donald backers in new hampshire. >> when he referred to some illegal immigrants as rapists --

>> it did not bother me. >> he would bring a lot of companies back. >> i look forward to it. it will be an interesting thing every day. >> trump is parlaying anger and anxiety. there are certainly a healthy dose of racism and what he is doing. >> donald trump is out at nbc. be inal candidate would trouble with this stuff. over the weekend, mark asked trump about his suggestion that john mccain is no war hero. will trump survive this? donald trump: i have to be me. john: will he take a dive from this? with all due respect to macy's, you can take the donald off of your shelf, but you cannot take the donald off of us. >> who is giving donald trump money at this point? are there people that actually

donate money to the trump campaign, or is it all him? >> how much is donald trump worth? >> 2.9 billion. a lot of money. john: immigration is the horse donald trump rode in on. he has written pretty far on it so far. is it time for him to shift and diversify his portfolio when it comes to issues? >> $600 billion to deport 11 million people. >> hold on. you have to call lindsey graham's office if you want to talk to them. >> the rnc told him to tone it down. if the mainstream republican party wants to control trump, can they? mark: no, they cannot. john: he is the only one bigger than fox right now. that is a powerful place to be,

no doubt. donald trump versus everyone. the primary of trump. >> how much is the party establishment freaking out? donald is a possible third party candidate. >> the trump attack on jeb, it is fundamentally accurate. >> there are pills for that, but jeb is not taking them. >> what did you think about the way that jeb tried to take him on? he said i am a real republican. >> he is not really a republican. he is a unicorn, something we have never seen. donald trump: kanye west, he loves trump. trump: i will never say bad about him. john: the candidates on late-night tv, when we come back. ♪

john: throughout the year, we have had a fair number of guests that stand at the crossroads of politics and popular culture. here is a best of compilation of those who came to play in 2015. mark: let me run through some of the candidates you have interviewed. john kasich -- seth: john kasich seems like a very nice man. i do not know if the electoral college right now is looking for reasonable man. mark: ted cruz. seth: ted cruz, i found him an aggressive debater. he was very willing to go back and forth. he likes conflict.

that made him an interesting guest. mark: carly fiorina. seth: sharp, but less charismatic than i was expecting. as a talk show host, i expect -- i feel like when people run for president, they have to have a little bit more sparkle. mark: mr. sparkle, lindsey graham. seth: when you are pulling a 1%, you kind of, on late-night he , was dealing. he had some loaded up jokes. you can always tell when they preplan their off-the-cuff jokes. bernie sanders, good sense of humor. very laid-back. he was fun to talk to. mark: you are an historic figure. you are historic figure. you've helped president obama with some jokes for the correspondence dinner. one of those jokes is about mr. trump. we are going to look at that.

obama: you realized the real problem was a lack of leadership and you did not blame littlejohn or meatloaf. you fired gary busey. these are the kinds of decisions that would keep me up at night. mark: was that an easy target? how did you come up with the idea? >> the great jon lovitt, we see if we can come up with anything. that we can get in the speech. trump is a worthy target. he only runs for president to promote "celebrity apprentice." and i am a fan. i like the show. i like what he does to keep it on the air, but he does not need to run for president. >> the lobbyists, the special interest. they are getting elected to serve them. that is on both sides of the aisle. and i would give anything to

have lobbyists and special interest out of washington. england has a political system that is six weeks long. let's whoever ends up being on the left or the right put them , on two tree stumps in union square and let's film it. let them do it, just like lincoln and douglass. let them go at each other. there is way too much money, the almighty dollar, way too much money in a two-year presidential campaign. the fact that these people will raise a billion dollars to run for president, people do not give you money and not want something in return. and if you are just out here sitting in michigan going, i wonder if i am truly represented, i did not give so and so $100,000. probably not. i do not get to sleep in the

lincoln bedroom. john: your politics are not as hawkish as your character's politics. >> as you look at cause-and-effect, looking at what somebody's life experience is, seeing what the potential outcome can be. i screw up once in my job if you add it from -- if you look at it from that point of view what , if i were in these shoes? in that way, i can kind of get it. i don't always have to agree. the one thing i always love, i do not have to always agree with somebody's point of view to have the utmost respect for them. i do not know everything. i love listening to everybody. john: when president obama was elected, you took your parents to the inauguration.

>> you have to understand, my father fought in taipan. he risked his life for the country. the love of this country when this country was not loving him. he came back and his right to vote was not even protected. my mother grew up in the bayou country of the louisiana where they did not have schools for black kids. ,ou had to come to new orleans because it was the only place really had a school for black kids. it was violent. to see that in this country, the greatest triumph of president obama's election was not what it did for african-americans, but what it said about the evolution of this country. to get rid of that sickness. to have my parents be alive to see that, my father talked about how he cried when he sailed

under the golden gate bridge going to the pacific theater of war, thinking he would never see the country again. as we drove into d.c. that night, the night before the election -- the inauguration, we drove around the mall. we were in tears because it was such a beautiful moment for the country. my father was in laughter. i said daddy, what is going on, , what are you laughing about? this is such a moving moment. oh a black man is over , all of this. he was having a ball. john: i have heard two things. you want to make a movie opposite hillary clinton. and you want to go on a man date with barack obama. >> while i was doing "how i met your mother," the constant question was, who is the mother? who is the mother going to be? i started to get tired of the

question five or six years in. i also did not know the answer. i said, i am hoping for hillary clinton. i got the most graceful, amazing letter from hillary clinton or her people saying she was very flattered, but she is going to be too busy to be the mother on "how i met your mother." which i have saved. i was lucky enough to meet barack obama. they did a screening of "muppets" at the white house for children of veterans, and i was brought there and you are so o nervous, and you hear the man approaching and he walks in and he says, "i love you, man." i did a movie called "i love you, man." i responded nervously with "i love you, too, mr. president." john: even more ahead when we come back. ♪

mark: a conversation we had with a guy who is a big fan of housing and development. talking about julian castro, the secretary of housing and urban development. he is a big fan of one particular sport. john: we were intrigued to learn that he is a big boxing fan. there you go. that got us thinking about the similarities between politics and pugilism. we thought we would take a visual tour with the secretary. two sets of fisticuffs. politicians in the public arena and fighters. >> you have ali-foreman, one of the classic fights from 1974. unexpected that ali would come

back. he had lost to joe frazier. foreman was a monster. he had demolished fraser. he was seen as invincible. got him.t him -- ali john: the rumble in the jungle. famously from "when we were kings." is this when you became a boxing fan? or was it a little later? >> i was born that year. john: you learned about it later? now we have two politicians in the arena. that would be you right there sitting next to ted cruz. he is extending his hand in friendship, i think. what was it like? >> he was a princeton debater, a very nice guy. very cordial. i am sure i shook his hand. he was running for senate, this

was about six weeks before his senate election in texas in 2012. we went at it over a couple of things. john: who won the debate? >> i would like to think that i did, but folks can go to the tape on youtube and see. john: is he a formidable presidential candidate? >> his stance on the issues takes him out of the mainstream. ultimately, over the last couple of cycles, and historically the republicans have chosen the adult in the room. i believe that might be somebody else. john: that is putting it gently. do you think he is more formidable than rick perry? >> rick perry is in no man's land in terms of politics and fundraising. he maybe had his time in 2012. it is going to be hard for him

to get back. john: we have another image. who are those two guys? >> this is my favorite fighter, julio cesar chavez the longtime , mexican star. i cannot tell who he is fighting. both of these guys were brawlers. in close, tough guys. this guy would take about three punches to get one punch in. ultimately prevailed and had one of the best records in modern boxing. john: what was it that made you a huge boxing fan? what is it that you love about this so much? >> i love the close combat and there is a lot of skill involved even though it is brutal. i know a lot of folks don't like it. it is a very old sport and one that takes a lot of training and stamina and thinking in addition to being able to take a good punch. john: someday when you run for

president, we will run this video and it will be a perfect metaphor for your campaign. here comes the next image up. you can tell me -- >> this was a great match. i imagine this was from the third debate. john: this was the first debate , i believe, in denver. that was the debate where a lot of people thought mitt romney knocked the president out. were you among the democrats that were freaking out in 2012 with that debate? maybe barack obama has lost the election? >> everybody hoped he would come back and i remember the president saying that he does not lose twice. and he did not. he came back very well in the second debate and the third debate. those helped cushion his lead. he was right. he did not lose more than one. john: that is true.

we will stay right here. last one. >> we have the big may 2 fight coming up between floyd mayweather, undefeated, and manny pacquiao, also one of the best boxers of his time. this is a fight folks have been waiting for for quite a while. we will see who wins on may 2. i have to say if i had to guess, i think it will be floyd. john: that is a safe call. but this is going to be a big fight. >> this is projected to have the most pay-per-view buys of any fight in history. and also to have the biggest date in las vegas of any fight in history. gate in las vegas of any fight in history. mayweather will end up making about $100 million. john: is that higher than your salary? we asked your staff, what do you

love? they say you love boxing. julian castro, thank you so much. we will get you to sign these boxing gloves. you can put one name on one side and one on the other. he knows where to sign them, too. look at that. mark: we will be right back. ♪

john: so much has been made of the huge deal of the republican candidates. back in august, we were curious about what americans were searching for is the country came to know a little bit more about them. we typed in names and the beginnings of some simple questions to see how google would complete our sentence based on what americans are searching for. take a look. ♪

>> i do not like green eggs and ham. i do not like them, sam-i-am. ♪

mark: thank you for watching. we want to remind you you can , follow us all the time on our website bloombergpolitics.com. we are now on the radio. if you are watching us in washington dc, you can listen to us on bloomberg 99.1. thank you for watching. have a happy holiday. sayonara. ♪

>> i'm yvonne man and this is trending business. ♪ yvonne: first, here is what we are watching this morning. optimism, stocks extended global rally, rising across the region for a fourth straight day. as oilshares led the way had its best weekly gain in two months.

taken to task, to cut a bang was criticized by its biggest customer right at the start of the airbag crisis. was criticized by its theest customer right at start of the health care crisis. an energy strau -- and energy stocks plunder. let us know what you think of today's top stories by following me on twitter. to heidi now, looking at the markets. a lot of christmas colors, of course. heidi: i am trying my best. we are getting the beginnings of perhaps a little bit of a santa claus rally. shanghai is extending trading. down by about a quarter of 1%.